Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Conor McGregor - Who Wins?

Tonight is the night of one of the most anticipated fights in UFC history. For the casual fan, it might be the biggest fight ever as McGregor has become the biggest crossover star in UFC history. Bigger than Lesnar, bigger than Rousey, even bigger than Aaron Brink (this is obviously figuratively, not literally). Meanwhile, Khabib Nurmagomedov is his greatest challenger. Not only does this fight have a ton of hype, but it is also incredibly interesting as both fighters have a way to win.

Each fighter's goal is obvious. For McGregor, he needs to keep distance and stay on his feet as he is vastly superior as a striker. I have been a McGregor hater for a long time as I continue to underestimate the guy. This is me being very dumb and also being slow to recognize that his training methods, although sometimes silly as shit, have been incredibly effective. Conor has always had power, but his movement in the cage and his ability for lightning quick strikes have gotten leaps and bounds better, and that is why he has had continued success despite most people feeling he is fairly one dimensional. "All you have to do is take him down," they say. But that is far easier said than done.

Meanwhile, Khabib has the opposite goal. Close the distance. That's it. It's not even getting takedowns, because those will happen if he can close the distance, but even in the clinch, McGregor is going to be so preoccupied with staying on his feet that Khabib can dominate McGregor without ever getting him to the mat. But if Nurmagomedov does get him on the ground? Oh yeah, McGregor is fucked. That's not because McGregor is incompetent on the ground; it's that everybody gets dominated when Khabib puts them on the mat. His positioning and body control are a thing of beauty, and it allows him to rain down strikes no matter how his opponent tries to escape.

McGregor is unmatched on the feet, and Khabib is unmatched on the ground. It is as basic of a matchup as the first UFC cards, just that these guys are using such advanced weapons that it's almost unrecognizable that the fights from 25 years ago are even the same sport from the fights today. And that classic contrast just adds to the excitement, as even though this fight is close on paper, it's really tough to see one guy not dominating the other. Somebody is going to figure out their game plan, and once they do, that other guy is screwed.

Ultimately, I am going to risk underestimating McGregor again, and I'm going with Khabib. Khabib's defense is very suspect standing up, but nobody has been able to take real advantage of it. Khabib isn't just undefeated; he's never lost a round to any of his opponents. McGregor is the best striker he's ever faced, but that's because McGregor is on an Anderson Silva level of striking these days where he can flick jabs with such lightning precision that they can drop opponents. Still, Khabib is in a good camp, and I just see him finding a way to get inside and take McGregor down. Once he has a chance to beat on McGregor, it'll take some pep out of his step, and it's just going to get easier from there. McGregor is incredible, but he can be physically broken. He got broken by Diaz in their first fight; he got broken by Mayweather, and I see him getting broken by Khabib tonight. I'm not counting McGregor out, but I have to pick Khabib. The only outcome I'd be surprised with is that if this fight goes the distance as either McGregor knocks out Khabib or Khabib breaks McGregor.

It's as simple as that, and I can't wait.