Justin Herbert - 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Justin Herbert, widely considered the third best quarterback in this draft is permanently right on the verge of breaking out. He was ready to break out after his sophomore season, and then he put up a pedestrian junior year. Still, he was big and had a strong arm so he was likely a first round pick, but he came back to school in order to have his big college breakout. And it paid off as Oregon won the Rose Bowl on the strength of their...defense. Herbert still didn't break out.

But then he went to the senior bowl, and against simplistic coverages and a total lack of defensive creativity, Herbert had his big breakout and became the Senior Bowl MVP. As great as that accomplishment is, I decided to watch real football games instead of an exhibition in order to make my evaluation. I watched his games against Auburn, Washington, and Utah. 

For the most part, I thought Herbert had good patience in the pocket. He also seemed to have a good feel for pressure as in the games I saw, he never seemed surprised by pressure.

Here, he takes his time, looks to the middle, then glances to the left before throwing right and hitting his receiver coming over to the ball.

He's also a guy that, despite being a big guy, can easily throw on the move.

Here, Oregon basically runs a double screen where it is more of a decoy on the left side, and then Herbert shifts his body and throws to the slot receiver on the right for nearly a 15-yard gain.

The easiest thing to enjoy about Herbert is he has very easy velocity on his throws.

Here, he does a nice job of scanning the field and getting the ball to his receiver between two defenders.

Here's another one where he shows very impressive arm strength while under heavy pressure.

Even though he's about to take a hit, he still steps through and delivers a nice ball.

Usually, he shows good mobility, but he did consistently struggle to make plays off schedule.

This is a super weird play as the inside receiver gets held up, so there are two receivers about five feet from each other.

On the following play, poor mechanics leads to an ugly throw.

Despite good blocking around him, he leans way back and doesn't get his legs underneath hi on the throw which leads to him sailing the pass beyond his receiver's grasp.

Here are back-to-back bad throws in the red zone.

Now, the first play, the right tackle gets badly beaten, but even before Herbert had any way of knowing that, he had already dropped eleven yards behind the line of scrimmage which makes things exponentially harder with the shortened field. He has to just throw it up and hope a miracle happens. The second play is just a bad throw behind the wide receiver in double coverage, and he's lucky neither of these was intercepted.

Here is my least favorite completion from Herbert.

3rd and 14 when a first down ices the game, and he throws it seven yards short. I don't know if it was scheme or what, but I just didn't see Herbert pushing the ball down the field. He has plenty of arm strength to do it, but the confidence didn't seem there to actually pull the trigger.

Here is his worst incompletion

Throwing a hail mary eight yards out of the end zone is inexcusable, especially since he was only throwing it from 39 yards away. He could have thrown it anywhere from 39-49 yards. Instead, he threw it 57. That is incredibly bad.

I feel like Herbert is a mixed bag. He has a good arm, he throws some accurate balls, and is athletic. But he does struggle making throws off schedule as he isn't always the best decision maker when his first read isn't there. My biggest issue is that I was just never wowed by him through three games. There were impressive plays here and there, but I was left edging when all I wanted to do was climax. Maybe that was because of how impressed I was with Tua, and I had to watch Herbert after that evaluation. Still, I'm left with a feeling that this guy's ceiling is a middle-of-the-pack quarterback, and reaching a ceiling is never guaranteed. I could see him being a late first rounder, but when it comes to quarterbacks being trucks or trailers, this guy is going to be a trailer who needs to be carried by the other pieces of the team if he's going to guide you to glory in the NFL.

2020 Quarterback Rankings:
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Justin Herbert - Oregon