Iowa Football and Institutional Racism

Over the weekend, there was big time news for the Iowa football program. Any sports news is great news, right? Unfortunately, that was not the case as James Daniels talked about racial disparity when it comes to the treatment of Iowa football players. It quickly became apparent that this was not an isolated incident but a pattern of poor treatment for black players in the Iowa football program.

 

Even the players who said they had a good experience at Iowa let their voices known that there was plenty of room for improvement. And I’ll admit, when I first heard about it, I tried to justify things in my mind, not that the actions were justified, but that this happens all over college football. But just because something is widespread does not make it right. And Iowa needs to be better.

 

To start, Chris Doyle has to go. He has had an incredible impact on the Iowa program, and I have no doubt that he is one of the best strength and conditioning coaches in the nation and a huge reason for Iowa’s success. But let’s face it, this guy should have been fired after the rhabdo issue where he sent multiple players to the hospital for working them out so hard that their kidneys were bleeding. That’s about as bad as you can mess up as a strength and conditioning coach and if a single one of these allegations are true (which seems likely since there are at least a dozen), it’s time to move on from Doyle. 

 

Kirk Ferentz is an absolute control freak (just about every college coach is), so I don’t really believe his claim of ignorance. I believe Kirk knew about just about all of these things, but to give him the benefit of the doubt, I don’t know if he understood how much it was affecting those players. 

 

I think Kirk is pretty outward on wanting folks to conform, but it’s also pretty obvious that his version of conformity is conforming to traditional white standards. He wants to restrict any behavior outside of his norms, and it’s pretty easy to see how this would make black players uncomfortable and also afraid to speak out about their issues. I hope Kirk Ferentz, and the entire Iowa program, can use this chance to grow as leaders, and it leads to a more positive experience for the black athletes in the Hawkeye program.

Ahmad Wagner - 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Ahmad Wagner is a wide receiver out of Kentucky that has managed to get a little NFL Draft buzz despite not putting up big numbers in college. The first reason that he didn’t put up big numbers is that he did not make it to Kentucky until 2018. The other reason is that he didn’t play football in college until transferring to Kentucky as he was originally a basketball brute for the Iowa Hawkeyes. He didn’t play in 2018, and in 2019, he didn’t exactly set the world on fire as he had just 15 catches. It’s not like he geared up as the season went on as over the last eight games of the season, he managed three catches for six yards. But once a Hawkeye, always a Hawkeye, so let’s take a look at everything I can find on Ahmad Wagner.

You want a big time touchdown catch against a top level defense like Florida? Well, here you go.

With the tight coverage, he does make a bit of a bobble, but he continues with his concentration and manages to secure the ball as he hits the ground for the touchdown.

And that’s it for his football highlights. Here he is on the basketball court though.

There’s a big time drive and dunk that shows off some impressive athleticism.

I would have loved to see Wagner get a combine invite, or at least have a pro day, because at 6’5” 240 lbs, I think his athleticism could have impressed a lot of teams. Kentucky used him at wide receiver, but he’s likely a tight end that often lines up away from the tackle. Considering the only highlight he has is him bobbling a ball before catching it, he’s probably an undrafted free agent, but if that’s the case, I’d love to see the Bears bring him in as their 11th tight end to see if he can at least offer something different than the other ten guys hanging around.

Previous Scouting Reports
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Jordan Love - Utah State
4. Justin Herbert - Oregon
5. Nate Stanley - Iowa
6. Tristan Wirfs - Iowa
7. AJ Epenesa - Iowa
8. Geno Stone - Iowa
9. Michael Ojemudia - Iowa
10. Willie Gay - Mississippi State
11. KJ Hamler - Penn State
12. Amik Roberson - Louisiana Tech
13. Laviska Shenault - Colorado
14. Trevon Diggs - Alabama
15. Antoine Winfield Jr. - Minnesota

Michael Ojemudia - 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Michael Ojemudia had an interesting career at Iowa. It seemed as if Iowa fans always had a cornerback they liked more than Ojemudia to take the starting job until his senior season where he was clearly the man on the outside. He became a starter his sophomore year and although there were some shifts and shake-ups, by the end of the year, he would always find his way to the top. Finally, in his senior year, he became the guy teams did not want to throw to as he did an excellent job of shutting down his side of the field. I took a look at his games against USC, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

To start off, let’s take a look at Ojemudia’s combine performance to get an idea of his athleticism.

What you see here is good, not great, but for an Iowa player, that is a huge victory as the Iowa Hawkeyes are never known for their athletic prowess. He’s got great size, good speed, and below average agility.

What you’re going to see with Ojemudia is very good instincts. 

On this play, the USC quarterback’s throw behind the receiver makes Ojemudia look a tad later than he actually was as he had an angle on where the ball would have led the receiver as opposed to being behind the receiver. Even if the receiver makes the catch, Ojemudia is right there to stop him from getting a first down.

I think the biggest thing from the USC game is the stat sheet. He was primarily put up against Michael Pittman Jr., who is a likely day two pick who had over 100 catches and 1200 yards on the season including 37 catches, 430 yards and three touchdowns in the three previous games. Against Iowa, he was held to six receptions and 53 yards, zero touchdowns. Even with that meager stat line, 17 of those yards came on a catch over the middle where Ojemudia had passed him off to a teammate in zone coverage.

He is a very willing tackler.

Sure, I’d like to see him wrap up on that one, but sometimes just laying the hammer down is good enough.

Ojemudia’s biggest knock is just giving too much cushion to receivers.

The Michigan passing game is not big on deep threats, so you’d like to see him play that a little bit tighter, but as someone who has watched every snap of the last 20 years of Iowa football, that is how Iowa designs their coverages a lot of times so it’s tough to fault him too much for situations like this.

It was painful for me to watch, and that’s why I am not including any clips of the Wisconsin game where Ojemudia really struggled. He failed to contain the edge on an end around, got beat deep, and was exploited for some first downs when he gave too much cushion. 

With the athletic profile, he is going to be a scheme player. If you put him in man-to-man coverage consistently, he could struggle as he does not have great change-of-direction skills. But in a zone scheme, he’s big, strong and has very good instincts breaking on the ball so he has potential to be a starter. With that skill-set, there is also the potential that he moves to free safety which has been a common move for many former Iowa cornerbacks and has proved fairly successful. 

Still, the lack of agility does show up on the game film, and I think it will be a major hindrance for him in the pros. I think he’s likely to be a day three pick who is going to have to make an impact on special teams early on but could turn into a starter down the line. The floor is high, the ceiling is low, but considering the progress he’s made throughout his college career, I wouldn’t count him out from continuing to improve.

Previous Scouting Reports
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Jordan Love - Utah State
4. Justin Herbert - Oregon
5. Nate Stanley - Iowa
6. Tristan Wirfs - Iowa
7. AJ Epenesa - Iowa
8. Geno Stone - Iowa
9. Michael Ojemudia - Iowa

Geno Stone: 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

The Iowa Hawkeyes had three underclassmen to this year’s NFL Draft. The first two, Tristan Wirfs and AJ Epenesa, were no brainers and likely first round picks. The third was a borderline decision in Iowa safety Geno Stone. I say borderline, because he is unlikely to be picked on the first two days of the draft, but I almost always think it’s the right move to leave college and get paid so good on him for getting closer to actually being compensated for putting his body on the line. I took a look at his games against Michigan, Iowa State, and USC to get a better idea of how he could make an impact for an NFL team.

Before we get to the film, let’s take a look at how he tested athletically at the combine.

That is...not ideal. 

Geno is clearly looking to jump the route on this play.

He hangs back just enough to give the quarterback a window, knowing that he can break downhill to either tip the ball or get an interception. Since the linebacker remained fairly close as opposed to going to a zone more outside, the Michigan quarterback checks off the route before throwing a really bad pass in the opposite direction.

That play may seem like nothing, but it hints at what can happen when he makes a quarterback believe there is an opening that isn’t actually there.

Here he stays underneath the Michigan wide receiver while still staying close enough to the tight end where it will only lead to a short gain. He knows he has help behind him on the receiver but gives Patterson just enough of a window to make the throw. He doesn’t play the receiver, he plays the path of where the throw has to go and it leads to him making the interception.

He also has great instincts in the run game.

He looks like he has a rocket attached to him as he emerges on the screen and darts directly to the ball carrier to turn what looked like a first down into a play that comes up five yards short.

I will say that tackling could use some work. I don’t think it’s a big issue, but he isn’t a guy that really laid the wood on his hits, and there were times where he was desperately diving for legs instead of wrapping up.

Last year, I was absolutely enamored with Amani Hooker. He played in the box and at safety and excelled at both roles because his instincts were always right. Geno Stone has great instincts, and the only reason I can’t put him quite on Hooker’s level is that he wasn’t given the opportunity to play anywhere but safety. Still, he was very good at what he did. Analytics sites like Pro Football Focus love him, but anyone who loves raw athleticism isn’t even going to have him on their board. Hooker fell to the fourth round, so I would say that is about as high as we could expect Stone to go. I think he’s likely a fifth round pick who ends up being very valuable as a starting safety in the league. I don’t think he’s an All-Pro guy, but he’s a football player who will be in the right place at the right time and knows how to make big plays. If the Chicago Bears got him in the fifth round, I’d be ecstatic.

Previous Scouting Reports
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Jordan Love - Utah State
4. Justin Herbert - Oregon
5. Nate Stanley - Iowa
6. Tristan Wirfs - Iowa
7. AJ Epenesa - Iowa
8. Geno Stone - Iowa

AJ Epenesa: 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

AJ Epenesa is one of the most beloved Iowa Hawkeyes of the last decade. He was a five-star recruit who actually chose to play at Iowa, which hadn’t happened for 15 years. It helped that his father, the repetitively named Epenesa Epenesa, played at Iowa under Hayden Fry, but it was still incredible to get this level of player in Iowa City. And AJ Epenesa didn’t disappoint. He only got spot duty in his first season, but put up 4.5 sacks. Then, his sophomore year, he split snaps and managed 10.5 sacks before taking over as a full-time starter his junior year and getting 11.5 sacks. I wouldn’t say he quite lived up to the hype because Iowa fans thought he would average two sacks a game, win the Heisman, and cure cancer. But he certainly wasn’t a disappointment, and I can’t imagine any Hawkeye fans having anything but fond memories of his play. I took a look at his games against USC, Nebraska, and Rutgers.

On the athleticism side, the combine was not great for Epenesa. Outside of his length and broad jump, he was unimpressive in the drills. Not worrying at all is a poor bench press, as this guy showed that he is strong as hell and bench press is one of the DUMBEST possible ways to measure football strength. His speed and change of direction was all below average to average which is slightly disappointing. He’s not a guy who was going to blow up the combine, but I think he was expected to have better numbers than that, and I would have expected him to improve on those had pro days still been happening.

But 22 sacks over his final two years, one of which he only played half the snaps, that’s pretty damn impressive. You can’t get those type of numbers without having a whole lot of hustle.

Here, Epenesa initially jams up the middle, but then recognizes the roll out, disengages with the tackle before running by the tight end and causing a pressure on the quarterback who had nowhere to go with the football.

Remember how I told you not to worry about his bench press numbers when it came to his strength. Here’s why.

Epenesa can bull rush just about anybody, because if he gets underneath you, he’s going to get through you. He not only pushes the lineman back, he is able to disengage, leaps to block a pass that never comes and then splashes down on the quarterback. He’s a very busy lineman. My one issue on this play is him dropping his head as that’s a really easy way to get off balance and get thrown to the ground against more experienced linemen.

I really wanted to include the game against USC, since the left tackle, Austin Jackson, is projected to be a first round pick. People have raved about Epenesa for getting 2.5 sacks in that game. Ultimately, it was not as dominant of a performance as I thought it would be. There were multiple times where Jackson seemed a step slow but Epenesa was unable to fully take advantage and Jackson was able to reset without any harm being done. One of Epenesa’s sacks was a miscommunication on the USC offensive line as he went right between Jackson and the left guard with neither guy deciding they were interested in actually blocking him. Still, he had his moments, like this windshield wiper he uses to leave Jackson gasping for air.

That is great handwork by Epenesa as he easily gets the corner against Jackson. Still, there isn’t much bend in Epenesa’s game so Jackson is at least able to keep a hand on him and delay him enough to let his quarterback throw the ball away.

His hand fighting is that counter move when people are expecting the bullrush, and it can be deadly.

He makes a very good prospect look very bad on this play.

He’s solid against the run, but not as special as you would think considering how strong he is. I will say that he completely dominated Nebraska in both pass and run as he annihilated their line all day long. His versatility is a huge asset, and one of the ways that he excels is an interior pass rusher.

Guards have no chance to stop Epenesa’s hands in space, and he consistently wreaked havoc when allowed to rush from inside.

Epenesa has SCARY power.

Imagine if he had touched him with two hands.

Watching Epenesa over these last three years was an absolute treat. Due to a poor combine, there are rumors of falling in the draft to the late first or possibly even the second round. If he falls to either of those points, it is going to be an absolute steal. I have seen this guy take over games. He had great stats at Iowa, and Iowa did not scheme to let him loose and only pursue the quarterback. Iowa defensive ends are often responsible for containment, even on passing plays, so his numbers could have been even more impressive had they just let him pin his ears back and try to kill quarterbacks nonstop. I don't think he's going to set the NFL on fire, but I do think he's going to be a very valuable pro player. He's probably going to have seasons with 8-12 sacks while being a dangerous player that can pop inside on passing downs to cause even more havoc.


Previous Scouting Reports
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Jordan Love - Utah State
4. Justin Herbert - Oregon
5. Nate Stanley - Iowa
6. Tristan Wirfs - Iowa
7. AJ Epenesa - Iowa

Tristan Wirfs: 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Taking a break from quarterback scouting, let’s focus on the team I know best, the Iowa Hawkeyes. Although there was debate throughout the season and going into the combine, it appears that Tristan Wirfs has separated himself as the Hawkeyes top pro prospect for 2020. He was a dominant lineman that easily adapted to either tackle position, and after a ridiculous combine, he seems like a probable top-10 pick. I took a look at his games against Iowa State, USC, and Rutgers.

First off, let’s talk about that combine because ridiculous might be an understatement.

The man was the elite of the elite for the 40 yard dash, broad jump, and vertical jump. Those last two are the most important as it shows his explosiveness and considering some of the numbers he’s put up in the weight room, I have zero concerns about a slightly below average bench press number. This guy is big, strong, and explosive; those are three traits that I really like in my offensive linemen (or really any position for that matter).

As much as I am a fan of Wirfs, it's not all sunshine and roses. Sometimes, he gets a little overzealous and gets off balance.

He got knocked on his ass by a defensive back on this play. It doesn't really cost Iowa anything since the quarterback is rolling to the opposite side, but staying balanced is going to be incredibly important in Wirfs's development.

There is a lot of easy athleticism in Wirfs’s game. His athleticism is a great trait as long as he keeps his feet underneath him.

On this play, he does a nice job to deliver a punch to the defensive end to help out his guard before easily shifting to the linebacker.

The Iowa State game was a mixed bag for Wirfs. The versatility is impressive as he played both right and left tackle, not only in the same game, but sometimes he switched in the middle of a drive. On the downside, Wirfs really struggled with his footing on a wet field in this game. He was on the ground WAY more often than you would like to see. Still, he can make plays most tackles can’t by using that athleticism.

Here, he drives the Rutgers defender inside to clear him out of the play, and then turns and chases down the cornerback to pop him outside towards the sideline to create a wide running lane on the reverse.

He uses good footwork to handle speed rushes as well.

The linebacker comes late for the blitz and tries a speed rush to the outside, but it barely looks like the linebacker is trying as Wirfs easily slides his feet and takes care of the linebacker without any trouble.

If you are going to try to bullrush Tristan Wirfs, you better bring a lot of power.

He stonewalls his man here, and just shuffles him along to give the quarterback plenty of time to make a big play down the field.

He is really able to unleash his power in the run game.

Here, he gets his paws on the defensive end and just drives him back and into the ground as Iowa picks up the first down.

And just for fun, let’s look at him dominating his man on a quarterback sneak.

That’s how you gain eight yards on a quarterback sneak.

Overall, Wirfs is a excellent prospect and likely worthy of a top-10 pick. I’m not just saying that because he’s a Hawkeye; it’s also because he was a state champion in wrestling, and that always earns points for me. What we have is a guy who was good enough to start as a true freshman and just turned 21 a couple months ago. He’s already incredibly powerful and showed that he can move pretty damn well too. His technique could use a little polish as he tends to get a little in front of his feet, but I don’t think that’s anything he can’t clean up. No need for NFL teams to worry about this pick, Tristan will be Wirfs it.

Previous Scouting Reports
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Jordan Love - Utah State
4. Justin Herbert - Oregon
5. Nate Stanley - Iowa
6. Tristan Wirfs - Iowa

Nate Stanley - 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

This one is near and dear to my heart as I have watched every snap of Nate Stanley's career as the quarterback of my beloved Iowa Hawkeyes. There were ups, there were downs, and there were truly some inexplicable moments during his three years as a starter, but overall Nate Stanley had more positives than negatives as a college quarterback. Still, I wanted to rewatch some of his games from this past season to see how some of those talents will translate to the next level. Since I wanted to be happy as opposed to getting angry at a game that happened six months ago, I chose his games against USC, Minnesota, and Purdue. 

Before we get into the passing, let's talk about the athleticism. It's not good, as the combine showed, but this man is likely the next Tom Brady in one area.

He's a master of the quarterback sneak. 

Don't believe me? Try topping this.

He gained eight yards sneaking the ball. EIGHT YARDS. This could work as an entire offense.

The thing that is going to stand out most about Stanley is his arm strength.

This is really what scouts are going to love with Stanley. He has a big arm and can rifle the ball into small areas. 

The most frustrating thing about Stanley is that although he can make all the throws, he never put together the consistency you would want to see from a starting quarterback. This especially showed up when he is on the road and with his deep balls.

This has been the most painful part of the Nate Stanley experience. His first year as a starter, I think he completed like 1 of 25 deep balls. I would stand up in anticipation every time he let it rip, and every time I would quietly sit back down while cursing under my breath. It's gotten better since his sophomore season, but it's still not good.

His accuracy is inconsistent on all levels, including screen passes.

He completes the pass, but the tight end has no momentum to gain yards after the catch because of where the ball was placed. He has to stop his route, catch, and turn before heading up field to gain yardage. 

Stanley will also struggle under pressure.

Here, the pressure is not overwhelming, and he still has plenty of space. Despite that, he tries to fire the ball while falling backwards, and it is hilariously off target for such a short throw.

Another issue he has under duress is trying to escape out of the pocket instead of stepping up into it.

He's not athletic enough to ever make this strategy work, but it can fail horribly at times as seen here. His running back does let him down on this play, but he often fails to find pockets to throw in and will run himself into more pressure than he gets out of.

I know this wasn't the most positive evaluation, but Nate Stanley is a sports writer's dream. He isn't the most physically gifted guy, but he always gives it 100% and will grind away any way that he can. Sure, he struggles under pressure and seems to get demonstrably worse on the road, but he's always there grinding and will always do just enough to at least keep his team in the game. Unfortunately, with the step up in competition, a lot of that grit just won't translate without more skills. He throws some great balls in the intermediate game, but his accuracy at all levels is a tick below where you would like to see it, and he doesn't have the awareness or athleticism to make up for that. Nate Stanley was a good quarterback for the Iowa Hawkeyes, but his ceiling is probably just a good backup in the NFL.

2020 Quarterback Rankings:
1. Tua Tagavailoa - Alabama
2. Joe Burrow - LSU
3. Jordan Love - Utah State
4. Justin Herbert - Oregon
5. Nate Stanley - Iowa

2020 Iowa Hawkeyes Wrestling NCAA Preview

Ugh, this post is totally irrelevant with the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament, but hell, might as well publish what I wrote. I only did the first five weights but put predictions down for everybody. Once the tournament was cancelled, I definitely did not alter any of the below predictions.

It’s finally here. The 2020 NCAA Championships where the Hawkeyes are favored to end their 10-year National Title drought. Of course, that’s only if the event actually takes place. Coronavirus is spreading across the nation, and there have been events cancelled, events that have been blocked from fans, and even international wrestling events already postponed. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but ultimately, I have to proceed as if this thing is still going on, and if it doesn’t, this should give you a good idea of what might have happened had the tournament actually taken place. Today, the little guys, and tomorrow, the big guys.

125 - Spencer Lee - #1 Seed
There’s no need for a deep dive into Spencer Lee’s early opponents. At best, his first two opponents will only get tech falled, and his third opponent may be able to keep it to a major decision, but I would still bet on tech fall. That gets him all the way to the semifinals where he is likely to face Jack Mueller, the man he beat in the finals of last year’s NCAA Tournament, but Mueller recently took a pretty bad beating from the #10 seed, Jakob Camacho, in the ACC Finals where he lost 11-4. Since Mueller was very good last year and has been fairly dominant outside of that match, I’ll say that he can keep it to a major decision.

As for the finals, #2 Pat Glory is undefeated and has already beaten #3 Nick Piccininni so he’s the likely favorite to take on Lee in the finals. Last year, Spencer Lee got a tech fall in the dual meet before winning 12-6 at the Midlands. I know Glory got closer, and he’s definitely improved as he lost to Piccininni last year, but I’m going Spencer Lee, and I’ll even give him a major decision, because Spencer Lee is that damn good.

PREDICTION: Spencer Lee - National Championship

133 - Austin DeSanto - #6 Seed
Austin DeSanto finished fourth at the Big Ten Tournament, which seemed to be his floor, but his performance was far more concerning than that. After overwhelming his first round opponent, he had one takedown in his last four matches. That is insane for somebody as offensively prodigious as DeSanto. People were not letting him get to their arm, and he was unable to get his offense set up from different positions. Because I’m a homer, I still see this as a blip, but it’s still a concern going into the tournament. He did fall to the sixth seed after being ranked in the top 3 the entire season, but the bracket lined up fairly well for him.

He’ll start off with NC State’s Jarrett Trombley, a guy who has held some top guys to decisions but doesn’t have the offense to be a real threat. I think DeSanto steamrolls him. After that, it will likely be #11 seed, Cameron Sykora out of North Dakota State. This match worries me as he has basically wrestled everyone fairly close this year, and he’s on an eight-match winning streak where he managed to win the Big 12. Good DeSanto beats this guy without a ton of worry, but if he’s not on his game, this has high upset potential.

I’m hoping DeSanto gets past him, because then things get REAL interesting where he will likely take on #3 seed, Cornell’s Chaz Tucker, who is undefeated this season. He’s the only undefeated guy in the bracket, but his best wins are likely his two victories over Montorie Bridges who is only the #8 seed. There is also not a lot of bonus point victories from him as things tend to be very close. DeSanto has wrestled Tucker twice, but they were both two years ago while he was still at Drexel and they split those two matches. Again, a fully functioning DeSanto wins this match, so let’s assume that’s the guy we see.

Then DeSanto is likely to see a very familiar face in Seth Gross who has wrestled three times. He’s 1-2, so Gross has to be favored. If DeSanto wants to win, he has to get ahead early, because it’s a nightmare to try to come back against somebody as tricky as Gross. On the opposite side of the bracket, I think Rivera is the clear favorite as his greatest challenger is likely RBY, and he looked definitively better than RBY when they wrestled at the Big Ten Tournament. If DeSanto is in an NCAA Final, all I will predict is chaos.

PREDICTION: Austin DeSanto - National Championship

141 - Max Murin - #7 Seed
The #7 seed seems about as high as they could possibly place Murin, but DAMN, that quadrant is stacked with talent. Even his first round opponent, Salvatore Profaci has beaten the 12 seed and only lost 7-3 to Nick Lee which should definitely be considered a victory. I think Murin wins, but it’s not automatic. Then he gets Mitch McKee, who I weirdly love more than his results would seem to deserve, but he is already 1-1 against Murin this year. They were both close matches, so I think it’s a coin flip.

After that, Nick Lee is likely up, and I can’t see Murin getting past him, although watch out the winner of the Tariq Wilson/Mitch Moore match, as even though Lee is the clear favorite, those guys are not slouches, especially Wilson who finished 3rd at the NCAA Tournament two years ago.

This is why it’s important for Murin to win that McKee match, because falling in to have to win a match just to take on whoever loses to Nick Lee is not a great place to be on the consolation side. Even if he gets past him, there are going to be some tough matches. Sometimes, I swear that Murin has turned a corner and is a threat to anybody, and other times, I just don’t see him getting to any of his offense, and he looks like he did last year. I know he’s better this season, but I don’t know if that’s enough.

PREDICTION: Max Murin - National Championship

149 - Pat Lugo - #1 Seed
I think the bracket sets up very nicely for Lugo. Having O’Connor, Sasso, Brayton Lee, and Kolodzik all on the bottom half is very fortuitous. This is still not an easy road as there are plenty of dangerous opponents on the way, but it’s about as good as Lugo could hope for.

First off, he’s facing the winner of the 32/33 match and I would expect Lugo to pull off a rare bonus point win against an opponent already wrestling their second match of the early session. After that, he’ll either get Parriott from Purdue or DeBlasi from George Mason. I don’t think either guy is a real threat to Lugo. From there it’s Purrinton from Nebraska, who Lugo just beat by major decision at the Big Ten Tournament or more likely, a long-time nemesis, Jarrett Degen of Iowa State. He lost twice to him last year in very close matches but reversed that trend by grinding out a victory this year. I don’t know if Degen is fully healthy, but he was healthy enough to go 3-1 at the Big 12 tournament so he likely isn’t too far off. Lugo should be favored, but my butt cheeks are gonna be clenched for this one.

In the semis, it’s likely to come down between Boo Lewallen, who Lugo surprised with a pin at the Oklahoma State dual meet or Brock Mauller whose name is far scarier than the competition he’s faced this year. He does hold a win over Boo, so I’ll pick Mauller to take it again, but I still like Lugo’s chances to make it to the Finals.

After that, I have zero clue as I went through all the talent on the bottom half of the bracket. If you have a chance, watch basically every match from that bottom half, because, it’s nonstop crazy matches by the second round. I guess I’ll go Matt Kolodzik because he likely would have been the #1 seed had he wrestled a full season. Kolodzik beat Lugo twice last year, but Lugo looks light years ahead of where he was last season. 149 is a total crapshoot; I keep going back and forth every 15 seconds so I’ll be slightly pessimistic as to not jinx things.

PREDICTION: Patricio Lugo - National Championship

157 - Kaleb Young - #8 Seed
Kaleb Young got a gift as the #8 seed as I easily could have seen him ten spots lower than this after he lost his last three matches to less than impressive competition. I don’t know what to think of him at this point. He has just looked sluggish in these last few matches and his offense looks desperate instead of crisp. I don’t think he’ll have trouble in his first round match as Jacob Wright just doesn’t have a big win all year.

Next up is going to be a lot more difficult when he goes up against Arizona State’s Jacori Teemer. Teemer is currently on a ten-match win streak and has seemed to fully shaken off his early season rust. If you would have asked me two weeks ago, I would have said that Young can take him, but he just hasn’t looked right so I’m picking an early exit into the consolation bracket for Young.

This isn’t all bad, as I think he can do some damage on the back half of things, and if things play out how I think, he’ll take on Kendall Coleman, who he is 2-0 against for a shot at being an All-American this year. Kaleb Young’s a grinder, he might not win a title, but I still think he can have an impressive performance.

PREDICTION: Kaleb Young - National Championship

165 - Alex Marinelli - #1 Seed
PREDICTION: Alex Marinelli - National Championship

174 - Michael Kemerer - #2 Seed
PREDICTION: Michael Kemerer - National Championship

184 - Abe Assad - #11 Seed
PREDICTION: Abe Assad - National Championship

197 - Jacob Warner - #6 Seed
PREDICTION: Jacob Warner - National Championship

Heavyweight - Tony Cassioppi - #3 Seed
PREDICTION: Tony Cassioppi - National Championship

Yep, definitely didn’t alter my predictions at all once the tournament got cancelled. This is 100% what would have happened.

XFAlpha Podcast - Week 4 Review

Either Jonah and I are in a huge fight or we couldn't get our schedules to line up. You decide. But I'm going solo this week with a review of week four and previewing everything you need to know about week five. My notes and download information are below.

DOWNLOAD HERE:

iTunes: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/xfalpha/id1488879567

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6KqGIlGiXh68RpL0uEHTBu

Reach out to us at the following places:

Email: xfalphapod@gmail.com 

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Defenders vs. VIPERS

Jacques Patrick was a guy I had mentioned as somebody to watch out for, and I’m hoping his performance this week gives him a more significant workload over De’Veon Smith, even though both backs had over 100 yards. 

A lot of fun misdirection in the run game that took advantage of an overzealous defensive line. Imagine how dangerous that would be with a mobile quarterback like the recently retired, Quinton Flowers.

Nothing has changed with Cornelius. He’s still not great, not terrible, but not exciting enough to make the Vipers a contender.

Cardale Jones has not lost a home game in a decade. Let’s not forget that.

I think the Vipers defense is playing better, but the offensive line for the Defenders is a serious liability.

On the defensive side, Rahim Moore and Matt Elam are both showing enough to get another look in the NFL, and I have also been impressed with Tracy Sprinkle who has been able to cause some havoc on the defensive line.

Roughnecks vs. RENEGADES

PJ Walker is not messing around, continues to show that he really is the best quarterback in this league.

Cam Phillips was shut down, but Nick Holley had the chance to shine. I would still be buying on Phillips and doubting any Holley buzz at this point.

Parham is a stud, that ain’t changing. 

Landry Jones is messing around as he just loves to complete passes, no matter what jersey they happen to be wearing. 

Unfortunately, it now appears they are down to Philip Nelson, and the Renegades need to find a new quarterback, either trading for Quinton Flowers, Tyree Jackson, or Johnny Manziel. God, even reuniting Hal Mumme with Tim Couch has got to be better than this.

Wildcats vs. GUARDIANS

Traveling across the country is tough, especially without your best offensive weapon in Nelson Spruce. They didn’t play great, but I think if Spruce is healthy, they probably win this game.

Tre McBride stepped up big time again this week, but their running situation is pretty uninspiring right now.

I do think the Guardians are bad, but they played well enough to get this win over a flat Wildcats team. They are 2-2, tied for the fourth seed, and I have absolutely zero faith that they will make the playoffs.

Dragons vs. BATTLEHAWKS

Quarterbacks are so damn important so it was good to see BJ Daniels get a chance with the Dragons as it seemed to give that team some fire.

The Dragons defense had ten tackles for loss in this game.

I still love my boy De’mornay Pierson-El. 

I’ve been a Jordan Ta’amu skeptic where Jonah has been a hater, but it’s time to just let him be. He’s not the best quarterback in the league, but he’s in the top half of starting quarterbacks, and that makes the Battlehawks title contenders.

I also don’t think this game was as close as the score made it seem as the Battlehawks ran 73 offensive plays and the Dragons ran 42. 

WEEK 5 PICKS

ROUGHNECKS over Dragons - Dragons cover 13.5

RENEGADES over Guardians - Renegades cover -8

DEFENDERS over Battlehawks - Upset special as Battlehawks are favored by 3.5

WILDCATS over Vipers - Wildcats cover 1.5

DFS Picks

QB 

1. PJ Walker - HOU
2. BJ Daniels - SEA
3. Eric Dungey - DAL

RB 

1. Cameron Artis-Payne - DAL
2. Donnel Pumphrey - DC
3. Martez Carter - LA+

WR

1. Tre McBride - LA
1. Donald Parham - DAL
2. Mekale McKay - NY
1. Flynn Nagel - DAL
3. Nick Truesdell - TAM
1. Keith Mumphrey - STL

DEF

1. Dallas
2. LA
3. DC