125 - Spencer Lee - #3 Seed
This is the big positive for Iowa. Lee was the #3 seed last year and did fairly well with that seed. Also, for the first time, the NCAA seeded all 33 wrestlers as opposed to just the top 16. He'll take on 13-9 Christian Moody from Oklahoma in the first round, and I wouldn't expect that one to get out of the first period. After that, it is likely Ryan Millhof, whose only match I really remember is the time he tried to go up a weight and Roman Bravo-Young looked like the second coming of Christ because of his dominance. That one may make the second period, but I really doubt it goes the distance. Then, it will likely be the 6 seed, Sean Russell who has wrestled Lee twice this year, but has yet to score a point, so that one looks fairly good. After that, he will likely go up against Nick Piccinnini who did pin Lee this year, but Lee beat him twice last year (including a pin of his own), and I like that matchup a ton more than facing Sebastian Rivera. Also, don't count out Pat Glory from Princeton as he is a true freshman who really brings it and could give Piccinnini some troubles although the Cowboy should be heavily favored. After that, it's most likely Sebastian Rivera in the finals. Lee had so many opportunities to win their second match this year, but it didn't happen. I still have tremendous faith in Lee winning the whole thing this year. It may be homerism, but if you find a good place to make bets on college wrestling, let me know, because I will gladly put my money on the Hawkeye.
Some other guys to watch in the top half of the bracket include Ronnie Bresser from Oregon State, undefeated Jack Mueller from Virginia, and Vitali Arujau, a true freshman from Cornell. All of those guys could prevent a rematch between Lee and Rivera.
IOWA PREDICTION: SPENCER LEE BECOMES TWO-TIME NATIONAL CHAMPION
National Champion: See above.
133 - Austin DeSanto - #7 Seed
I would say DeSanto got a fair draw. He's taking on somebody from Appalachian State in the first round, and I would expect him to cruise. Next up, he'll likely have Roman Bravo-Young who he absolutely dominated in the first period of their match at the Big Ten Tournament. I think he's too much on his feet for the Nittany Lion so I feel confident about his ability to move on. After that, things could get VERY interesting. The #2 seed is Stevan Micic who is undefeated but lost the top seed when he medically forfeited out of the Big Ten Tournament after his first match. I don't know how serious that injury is, but I seriously don't think he forgot that DeSanto put on a damn kimura during their match last year when Micic was putting a beatdown on him. DeSanto does have a dominant 22-10 win over Micic early last season, so this match could be bananas. If Micic is healthy, I have to go with the Wolverine, but that's no guarantee, but if he wins, he'd likely have a rubbermatch against Nick Suriano to make it to the finals. It's not an impossible road, but at a loaded 133 weight class, there are no easy paths.
In the top half of the bracket, Daton Fix is super good, so he's deserving of the #1 seed, and unfortunately, I have only seen bits and pieces of #4 Mickey Philipi so I'm not sure how good he is, but his results have been impressive. I do think Montorie Bridges has a chance to upset Luke Pletcher, but that may be because I am very down on Pletcher. Also, watch out for Iowa State's Austin Gomez at the 13 seed; he beat DeSanto earlier this year, and he has the skills to give guys trouble.
IOWA PREDICTION: AUSTIN DESANTO BECOMES AN ALL-AMERICAN (5TH PLACE)
National Champion: Stevan Micic, Michigan
141 - Max Murin - #22 Seed
I feel like Murin has an argument to be higher than this. The Big Ten schedule did him no favors as he had a ton of tough matches, and he just barely lost most of those matches. So, I guess the committee's thought was to see it continue as he is set to face off against Tristan Moran of Wisconsin. Moran is aggressive on top, but he's not anything special on his feet, so it's a winnable match, but it won't be easy. If things go well, he'd take on #6 seed Michael Carr who he is 1-1 against this season. Also, can someone please explain how the guy who finished eighth at the Big Tens is the six seed after accumulating a 12-5 record on the season? After that, he'd be looking at Nick Lee, and I think we can safely assume he won't make the semifinals, but I surely hope he proves me wrong.
As for the rest of this bracket, this is probably the deepest group of wrestlers in the tournament. Kaid Brock is an incredibly talented guy for the 15 seed. I love Mitch McKee, but not his draw as the seventh seed. Jaydin Eierman of Missouri and Josh Alber of Northern Iowa are both tough outs as the four and five seeds, but I could also see either guy getting upset. Iowa State's Ian Parker has a ton of notable wins at the weight class, but he also has a lot of losses to just general ass dudes. My super deep sleeper is #24 Mitch Moore of Virginia Tech. I think he could pull a couple upsets before having to take on the top seed, but he's a freshman who has gotten better as the season has rolled along.
And despite all that depth, I really see it ending up with Cornell's #1 ranked Yianni Diakomihalis taking on #2 Joey McKenna from Ohio State. I just think those guys are slightly above the rest of the field, and I'm actually going to take McKenna to get the upset over Yianni, but I fully acknowledge that this might just be Big Ten Brain taking over.
For Murin, I'll say he loses his first match before storming back in the consolation side of things. Unfortunately, I just don't think it'll be quite enough.
IOWA PREDICTION: MAX MURIN GOES 3-2 BUT FALLS IN ROUND OF 12
National Champion: Joey McKenna, Ohio State
149 - Pat Lugo - #10 Seed
Lugo is the ten seed that nobody wants to face. Four of his seven losses came in sudden victory, two of the others were to Matt Kolodzik when he was ranked #1, and the other was his first match of the season. He has really put it together lately, and I don't think people will be looking forward to matching up against him. First up, it's Arizona State's Josh Maruca who he should handle. Then, he has a rematch against Oklahoma State's Kaden Gfeller who Lugo dominated on the feet, but Gfeller is a very tough scrambler who always makes positions interesting. Still, I feel good about Lugo advancing to take on #2 Micah Jordan. Jordan should be clearly favored, but weird things always seem to happen to the Jordan boys, which might be karma for their uncle being an incredibly shady politician who did nothing when wrestlers were being sexually assaulted by the head trainer...allegedly. It's more likely that Jordan wins, but maybe Lugo can benefit from karma. The bottom half of the bracket is highlighted by Mitch Finesilver from Duke and Austin O'Connor from North Carolina so finally those two schools can have a real rivalry.
149 is pretty weak this year, so if you're looking for any surprises, maybe look at Justin Oliver of NC State or Jarrett Degen of Iowa State as both guys know how to scrap and have the ability to pull off upsets, but they'll have to get by each other in the second round. Otherwise, I think I'm going chalk for the final, but this is a weight class where it wouldn't be shocking to see some odd seeds ending up in the finals.
IOWA PREDICTION: PAT LUGO BECOMES AN ALL-AMERICAN (7TH PLACE)
National Champion: Anthony Ashnault, Rutgers
157 - Kaleb Young - #6 Seed
Things line up nicely for Young for the first two rounds in this tournament. First he has Dan Reed from Columbia, and he should be able to beat up a nerd. Then he has Ke-Shawn Hayes from Ohio State who he beat 11-1 at the Big Ten Tournament. After that, he likely gets Ryan Deakin (although Zach Hartman from Bucknell could give him trouble), the one guy to really beat Young when he won 6-2 against the Hawkeye (his other losses were two in sudden victory, and two close losses to Alec Pantaleo). I would love to see him win that match, but it seems rather unlikely. At that point, he'd probably be looking at Tyler Berger with a possibility of Larry Early pulling off the upset, although I think Berger gets by him.
On the top half of the bracket, it's Jason Nolf. Actually, if you're looking for a winner, it's only Jason Nolf, because there are 32 guys that have zero shot of beating a healthy Nolf.
But for guys to watch out for on the backside, Hayden Hidlay and Alec Pantaleo are the two guys that I think are likely the second best guy at this weight, but unfortunately, they'll have to face each other before losing to Nolf, so third place is the best they can do. Josh Humphreys is a true freshman who has been wrestling really well outside of a terrible loss to Oklahoma State's Wyatt Sheets. I also want to point out Jarrett Jacques, only because his last name is pronounced jay-cues.
IOWA PREDICTION: KALEB YOUNG, ALL-AMERICAN (6TH PLACE)
National Champion: Jason Nolf, Penn State
165 - Alex Marinelli - #1 Seed
You may think it's tough to get screwed by being rightfully named the #1 seed, but they certainly found a way to do it as nearly every single wrestler I would not want to wrestle is in the top half of the bracket, and it's basically just Logan Massa and Vincenzo Joseph on the bottom half (Josh Shields is fine, but he would not worry me).
So who does Marinelli get to start off? Joseph Smith, just a two-time All-American out of Oklahoma State, and his Dad may be the greatest US wrestler in history, so nope nothing to worry about there. In all honesty, Joe Smith has not looked great down the stretch and just finally made the weight down to 165. His gas tank was a major issue at 174, so it should only be harder for him at 165. He also has to wrestle a pigtail match before taking on Marinelli, so he won't have much rest and Marinelli does know how to grind down opponents. Marinelli is facing him in the most ideal circumstances, but you would rather not run into a guy that talented in your first round match.
After that, he could rematch Jonathan Viruet who took him to sudden victory at the Midlands. It could also be Thomas Bullard from NC State, but I think Marinelli will take it to either one of those guys, especially in a second try against Viruet.
After that, it could be Utah Valley's Demetrius Romero who has beaten Joe Smith, Bryce Seitert (twice), and Logan Massa and only has three losses on the year. The other option is Mekhi Lewis from Virginia Tech who only has two losses and beat Marinelli in freestyle this past summer. Again, I'm definitely picking Marinelli, but this road is exhausting me just typing it out, and we haven't reached the semifinals yet.
At that point, it's either Evan Wick, who Marinelli has beaten three times this year, but every match has been painfully close as Wick has dominated the Hawkeye from the top position. Then there is Chance Marsteller, one of the greatest high school wrestlers to come out of Pennsylvania, the greatest high school wrestling state in the nation. He has two losses, one was a one-point loss to two-time defending National Champion, Vincenzo Joseph, and the other was to Josh Shields by tie breaker after two overtimes. That is a very dangerous guy.
Oh, and if he makes it to the finals, he's got Vincenzo Joseph, that two-time defending national champion. Marinelli beat Joseph last year, and BEAT him this year. But seriously, if Marinelli is going to somehow win a title, he's going to have to earn it every step of the way.
IOWA PREDICTION: ALEX MARINELLI EARNS HIMSELF A NATIONAL TITLE
National Champion: My heart said Marinelli, and the one thing I learned from DHT was to listen to my heart.
174 - Mitch Bowman - Did Not Qualify
Poor Mitch Bowman ends his senior season going out in a whimper as he was unable to qualify for the NCAA Tournament after dropping down a weight to help out the team after Michael Kemerer and Myles Wilson were injured. He was a rollercoaster of ultimate hustle and me ultimately yelling at my TV for him to get up.
Without a Hawkeye, this weight class loses a lot of luster for me. Is anybody beating Mark Hall in the top half of the bracket? No. Myles Amine will lose by a point to him in the semifinals, because that is what happens in every one of their 700 matches.
Bottom half is a two-horse race between Missouri's Daniel Lewis and Arizona State's Zahid Valencia. Lewis pinned Valencia in a match he was already controlling, but Zahid kicks ass at these NCAA Tournaments. He could easily be a two-time defending champion had he not gotten dinged for accidentally grabbing the headgear against Mark Hall a couple years ago.
So I say it comes down to Hall and Valencia again. When they were freshman, I didn't think anyone could beat the phenom that was Mark Hall. When they were sophomores, I thought Valencia broke through to show that he's the new dominator at this weight class. Then Mark Hall controlled him in their match this year. I still really like Valencia, but I can't deny that the guy is struggling underneath tough wrestlers.
IOWA PREDICTION: MITCH BOWMAN SHOCKS THE WORLD BY STORMING THE MAT AFTER THE NCAA FINALS TO CHALLENGE FOR THE TITLE AT WRESTLEMANIA
National Champion: Who cares? They'll be defending their title in two weeks on the biggest stage of them all, but the pick is Mark Hall, Penn State.
184 - Cash Wilcke - #12 Seed
Cash Wilcke fittingly got the twelfth seed as he is Mr. Round of 12 as that is the round he has been eliminated in during his first two years at the NCAA Tournament, falling just one win short of All-American status. Can he change that this year?
Wilcke should be able to win his first round match against Nick Gravina, but Gravina is probably underrated due to his lack of matches this year. Wilcke has no great wins but no bad losses, so I think he's solid enough to get things done in the first round. Unfortunately, in round two, that no great wins thing catches up to him as I just don't see a way past Max Dean for Wilcke. He'll keep it close, but even I've got to take Dean in that match.
This is Myles Martin's weight to lose, and I don't see him losing it. He's dominated everyone, and I think that continues from start to finish at the NCAAs. If you're looking for some fun, let's have seventh seeded Nick Reenan take out Shakur Rasheed of Penn State. I think Rasheed is overrated, but I wholeheartedly admit that I overrate guys based off their freestyle success which is definitely part of the reason I am taking Reenan in that match.
IOWA PREDICTION: THE STREAK IS BROKEN. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS YEAR WILCKE ONLY GOES 2-2 AND FAILS TO MAKE THE ROUND OF 12.
National Champion: Myles Martin, Ohio State
197 - Jacob Warner - #5 Seed
Warner is in a totally fair spot at the five seed. Warner has been great defensively, but has struggled at times on offense. I feel like his effort has increased as the year has gone on, and it may be a conditioning thing where now he's fully into form after dealing with an injury earlier in the year.
He should have no trouble taking out Drew Phipps of Bucknell in the first round. After that, a much tougher matchup against Army's Rocco Caywood, a guy who beat Warner earlier this year at the Midlands. I think a lot of that was Warner already taking a beating from South Dakota State's Tanner Sloan. He also had only one match going into the Midlands on the season, and that was four weeks earlier against Iowa State, so I think a Warner who has rounded into form and has his conditioning ready should be able to avenge that loss.
In the quarters, it's a likely matchup with #4 seed, Patrick Brucki, who beat Warner at last year's Midlands. Brucki is 29-1 and he avenged his one loss to Cornell's Ben Honis. I like Warner, but Brucki put up major decisions against the two guys that Warner lost to at the Midlands, and I think even a fully charged Warner isn't putting up those types of scores. I would lean towards the Princeton Tiger in this one. If that's the case, I have Warner getting matched up with Ben Honis in the blood round which I see as a total toss-up match.
If he loses that, he'll make his way in the consolation bracket. If he wins, he will just delay going into the consolation bracket as Bo Nickal will await him. Nickal is so far ahead of the competition that it was a victory for the #2 seed to only lose by regular decision, because the first time they faced each other, Kollin Moore got pinned in the first period.
On the bottom half of the bracket, I think either Kollin Moore keeps hold of that #2 seed or Preston Weigel rises up from #3 as I just don't see #6 Willie Miklus or #7 Jay Aiello having the skills to take those guys out. I'd lean towards Moore, but either way, it's just a matter of who gets that ass whooped by Nickal on Saturday night.
IOWA PREDICTION: JACOB WARNER BECOMES AN ALL-AMERICAN (4TH PLACE)
National Champion: Bo Nickal, Penn State
Heavyweight - Sam Stoll - #29 Seed
One thing that people have always criticized me for is why I still believe in men who have been shot in the leg. If you told me Plaxico Burress was making a comeback, I would still want the Bears to sign him, because that guy is a touchdown machine. The same is true for Sam Stoll who definitely got shot in the leg this offseason and definitely does not look like the same guy he was in the past. I still believe in him.
Down the stretch, he really shit the bed, but he had some good wins earlier beating both Youssif Hemida and Conan Jennings. Plus, he's still SAM FREAKIN STOLL, who entered the season as the #1 ranked heavyweight. You know, sometimes it's just more fun to pick with your heart instead of your head, and this is one of those times. Keep that in mind as I run you through the Sam Stoll Sacrifice to the Gods.
First up, Jordan Wood, #4 ranked heavyweight out of Lehigh. Wood has a good record, but he didn't really beat anybody good. He faced the top three guys and lost to each of them, so his best win is #15 Tate Orndorff. Stoll, who has had a terrible season, has two better wins than that. It ain't going to be pretty, but Stoll wins 2-1.
I'll go with Zach Elam to get the slight upset over #13 Matt Voss, but that just leads to his ultimate destruction when Stoll really gets in a Gogarrian Groove and gets his first pin of the tournament.
After that, it seems like #12 seed Conan Jennings has #5 seed Mason Parris's number as he has beaten him three times this year, so give Stoll another huge victory as he was dominating Jennings before Jennings had to injury default after the match. Stoll takes it to him again in an excruciatingly boring 2-0 victory.
I bet you're thinking that he will take on #1 seeded Derek White next. Well, guess again, buckaroo, because I've got Central Michigan's Matt Stencel shocking White in the third round. Stencel has 17 pins this year, and hilariously, all three of his real losses (one injury default) were by pin as well. The man just loves pins, and I've got great news as he's going to find his way to another pin in the semifinals. Unfortunately for him, it's going to be our big beefy boy, Sam Stoll having him stare up at the lights when the ref's hand smacks the mat.
In the bottom half of the bracket, I'm taking Gable Steveson, and I don't think it's close. I know Anthony Cassar just beat him last week, but I'm pretty sure that Cassar was the only one who believed he could take him down, and Steveson was practically napping on the mat before he was like, "Oh shit, this dude just took me down with like no time left." I don't see him making that mistake again.
And yes, Gable Steveson beat Sam Stoll in their one matchup, but this is the Sam Stoll Sacrifice to the Gods tour. I say they battle it out until an overtime to settle it all, but you know who I'm going with.
IOWA PREDICTION: SAM STOLL GOES FROM 29TH SEED TO THE NCAA FINALS AND TAKES...
National Champion: Gable Steveson, Minnesota
Sorry, Sam Stoll. If the guy wasn't named after Dan Gable, I could go for it, but the Freshman Phenom is too much in the end.
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