Grading Each Iowa Wrestler's Performance at the NCAA Tournament

The NCAA  Tournament concluded this wrestling season which is one of my most manic-depressive moments of the year. It is such a high to have about 20 hours of wrestling to watch over three days and then have nothing for eight months. But at least we ended on a high note as the Hawkeyes performed incredibly well at the tournament, and although a few guys didn't quite live up to expectations, there was really only one dud of a performance. Let's grade each wrestler, from worst to best performance this past weekend.

10. Paul Glynn - 133 - Incomplete
Paul Glynn did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament so not a lot to say about his performance.

9. Joey Gunther - 174 - D
Gunther had two matches in the NCAA Tournament, and he went 0-2. That's...less than ideal. His first match was against 13 seed, Jacobe Smith. That's a fairly good draw as an unseeded guy, but Gunther did not take advantage and ended up giving up a major decision. Smith did end up becoming an All-American with an eighth place finish, so it is slightly more acceptable. He then lost a closer match to Josef Johnson, but Gunther again got no offense going. He showed up, but that was about it.

8. Brandon Sorensen - 149 - B-
Sorensen finishes this low despite having the third best finish of any Iowa wrestler where he took fifth place at 149. Still, anything short of making the NCAA Finals was going to be a disappointment for Sorensen, and unfortunately for him, those dreams ended early. After a nice 11-6 win over Jared Prince from Navy, Sorensen took on Ronald Perry from Lock Haven. Perry stalled throughout the match but nailed his one shot for a takedown late in the third and Sorensen wasn't able to answer. Although losing to the 15 seed is a tough pill to swallow, Perry did make it all the way to the NCAA Finals. After that, Sorensen caught fire and took a major decision over DeLuca from Rutgers, a decision over Deakin from Northwestern, and major decisions from both Hayes (Ohio State) and Lewallen (Oklahoma State). On Saturday morning, he took on Matt Kolodzik from Princeton and again failed to get to his offense and lost a close decision. That sent him to the fifth place match where he shut out Grant Leeth of Missouri 4-0. Overall, it wasn't a bad performance, but it just left you wanting more, as I'm sure Sorensen himself expected more of himself. Still, he goes out a 4-time All-American at Iowa, which is one hell of an accomplishment, and he will definitely be missed.

7. Vince Turk - 141 - B
Turk came into the tournament unseeded and had the extra disadvantage of having a pigtail match before he even made it into the bracket of 32. He ended up getting a major decision in his first match. His second match pitted him against 16th seeded Cole Weaver, a guy Turk had lost to at the Midlands this season. It looked like more of the same as Weaver was ahead late in the match, but with less than ten seconds left Turk, not only got the takedown but took him to his back for a two-count and won 4-3 in a match that had me jumping up and down and terrifying my dog. Unfortunately, that set up a match with #1 seed, Bryce Meredith. Although Turk got close on a couple shots, Meredith's defense was too much and Turk fell 5-2. He would then win a 3-2 decision over Limmex before losing a 3-2 decision to Chad Red of Nebraska. That was disheartening as Turk beat Red two weeks earlier at the Big Ten Tournament, but Red was wrestling very well at the tournament and ended up taking seventh place and becoming an All-American. Overall, the progress Turk made from the beginning of the year until the end was truly amazing, and his relentless offense with absolutely no defense was always fun to watch.

6. Mitch Bowman - 184 - B+
Bowman had a similar tournament to Turk. He was able to take out the 15th seeded wrestler at 184 in Missouri's Canten Marriott with a pretty damn impressive 10-2 major decision. Unfortunately, he was on the wrong side of a major decision when he faced second-seeded Myles Martin. But Bowman bounced back with a 4-3 win over Eastern Michigan before running into seventh seeded Taylor Venz. Venz proved too much for Bowman and too much for most, as Venz ended up taking fourth place at 184. Bowman came in unranked and lost to the guys who took second and fourth place. He got bonus points over a ranked guy, you really can't ask much more from the guy than that.

5. Cash Wilcke - 197 - B+
I'm going to sound like a broken record at this point. Good first match, got matched up against the guy who would go on to make the Finals and lost. Then, he went on a tear on the backside of the bracket, getting a pin and then winning in overtime to again make it into the Round of 12, the blood round, for the second consecutive year. That is where he got matched up against top-seeded Kollin Moore; Wilcke again came short of his quest to become an All-American.

I would just like to point out that Iowa only had one loss to a wrestler that did not become an All-American, and that was Gunther's loss to Josef Johnson. In fact, here are the placements of all of their losses.

UR, 8, 8, 7, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1

That is INSANE. Over half of Iowa's losses at the tournament happened to guys that finished in the top three at their weight.

4. Alex Marinelli - 165 - A-
Four through two were the toughest guys to rank as you could basically place them anywhere. Marinelli came out and wrestled better than he has all year, and this is a guy who was undefeated going into the Big Ten Tournament. He just came out determined and pushed his will on people. He started with two straight pins before running into the 4-seed, Chad Walsh of Rider. It was a battle from start to finish, but Marinelli gritted out a 7-6 win. He then took on two-time National Champion, Isaiah Martinez, and Marinelli did not have enough for IMAR. That started an unfortunate run of three straight losses which dropped him to sixth place. One was to Evan Wick, who was wrestling out of his mind and ended up in third, and the other was to David McFadden, in a match that was close but ended in a flash pin that seemed a little questionable to me. But let's not overlook the fact that Marinelli went in and attacked for every minute he was out there. It was fun to watch and he is definitely a national title contender for the 2019 season.

3. Sam Stoll - Heavyweight - A-
Stoll started off hot with a pin in his first match. After that, it looked like he would move on past Youssef Hermida of Maryland as he had the lead late in the match before giving up a six-point move and losing 7-2. That sent him to the consolation bracket where he didn't panic; he just started crushing dudes. He held Andrew Dunn of Virginia Tech scoreless in a 7-0 win. He followed that up with a pin over Purdue's Shawn Streck. That put him in the blood round against Nathan Butler of Stanford where he dominated in a 15-3 major decision. After that, he had Penn State's Nick Nevills who had beaten Stoll twice earlier this season. It went to overtime where Stoll got a big takedown to Nevills back for a four-point move and a 5-1 victory. After that, he took on Jacob Kasper. Stoll looked good early but got caught in a headlock and pinned. That sent him to the fifth place match where he ended his season in the best way possible, with a pin over Hofstra's Michael Hughes in the first period. Stoll got the slight edge for that victory over Nevills as that was probably the best non-Spencer Lee win of Iowa's tournament.

2. Michael Kemerer - 157 - A
Kemerer came out and showed why he was considered one of the top two guys at this weight class the entire year with pins in each of his first two matches. Of course, due to seeding stupidity, he was matched up against Jason Nolf in the quarterfinals, which was at least one, if not two rounds before that match should have taken place. Nolf did end up getting the decision as Kemerer couldn't find a way to generate offense against the Penn State stud. He went to the consolation side of the bracket and immediately drew second-seeded Joey Lavallee of Missouri. He won a convincing 5-2 decision. Then he took on the fourth-ranked Josh Shields and did the same thing to him, this time winning 6-2. Then he took on fifth ranked Alec Pantaleo, and he beat him 6-1. It was Kemerer doing exactly what you would expect on his way to the third place match. Unfortunately, Kemerer suffered a shoulder injury in the third place match and had to injury default. I'm not going to fault him for that. He lost to Jason Nolf, who everybody loses to. Outside of that, he showed why he is a top guy at this weight class, and he did it while clearly not being at 100%. Getting past Nolf is going to be tough, but I certainly wouldn't count Kemerer out.

1. Spencer Lee - 125 - A++
I have to give Spencer Lee a made up grade, because what he did was so unfathomably dominant that an A+ simply wouldn't do the trick. In my most ideal scenario for Lee, I would have had him dominating his first two opponents, pulling a major decision against Piccininni, getting a one-point win over Tomasello, and doing the same in the finals against Suriano. That was the best case scenario in my mind. That would have been an amazing tournament. Instead, he went out and did this:

1st Round: 18-0 Technical Fall in 1:41 over Alonzo Allen of Chattanooga
2nd Round: 18-0 Technical Fall in 3:59 over Luke Welch of Purdue
Quarterfinals: Fall in 3:58 over Nick Piccininni of Oklahoma State
Semifinals: Fall in 6:02 over Nathan Tomasello of Ohio State
Finals: 5-1 Decision over Nick Suriano of Rutgers

When it was all said and done, he outscored his opponents 60-4 and scored 27 team points by himself. If Spencer Lee was a team, he would have tied for 20th place on his own.

Before the tournament started, I was super high on Spencer Lee. I thought he had a very good chance of becoming the greatest wrestler of the Tom Brands era. Now? He's got a shot to be the greatest wrestler to ever wear an Iowa singlet. That's not hyperbole; he's that damn good. 

2018 NCAA Wrestling Tournament Predictions

It's the most wonderful time of the year when it comes to watching daytime sporting events during the work week. While most will be watching the first round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, I will be huddled next to as many screens as possible playing WatchESPN feeds of the NCAA Wrestling Tournament. In my hopes to get other people amped for wrestling, I'm going to preview each Iowa wrestler's chances and predict the All-Americans at each weight class.

125 - Spencer Lee - #3 Seed

As an Iowa fan, 125 is the most interesting weight class as it is Iowa's best chance at a national champion this year. Spencer Lee came in as the most blue chip of blue chip prospects that Iowa could hope for, and he has more than lived up to that hype as a true freshman. Lee has just two losses on the year, one to Ronnie Bresser, a good but not great wrestler, who beat Lee early on in the season, and a loss to Nathan Tomasello, a man who has already been a national champion, but also someone who Lee has beaten this year. Lee has gotten better as the year has gone on, and he's definitely peaking at the right time. He's earned a three seed in the tournament. In his first three matches, I don't just expect to win, I expect him to get bonus points in each of those matches, the toughest of which will be Nick Piccinnini who he only beat by decision earlier this year, but with his improved gas tank, yeah, let's move that up to a Major. The semifinals is going to be his toughest match, the rubber match against Nathan Tomasello, who will also definitely be there. Whoever wins that match will go onto win in the Finals. So can Lee pull it off? I'm an unabashed Hawkeye Homer, so yeah, Lee pulls it off, and caps off an incredible freshman season with a national title.

All-Americans

1. Spencer Lee

2. Darian Cruz

3. Nathan Tomasello

4. Sean Fausz

5. Sebastian Rivera

6. Nick Suriano

7. Taylor LaMont

8. Ronnie Bresser

133 - No Qualifier

Iowa did not qualify anyone at this weight class, which is unfortunate, as that will end Iowa's streak of having someone in the finals at this weight class for the last five consecutive years. Even sadder is that the #1 ranked guy at this weight class, Seth Gross, spent a year at Iowa before some legal troubles sparked his transfer to South Dakota State. Still, I'm going to pick an upset in the finals, because Stevan Micic from Michigan has been wrestling out of his mind late in the season, and I just can't see anybody stopping that momentum from rolling to a national title.

All-Americans

1. Stevan Micic

2. Seth Gross

3. Kaid Brock

4. Austin DeSanto

5. Scott Parker

6. John Erneste

7. Luke Pletcher

8. Josh Terao

141 - Vince Turk - Unseeded

Vince Turk may be the most fascinating wrestler on the Iowa team. He had a lot of hype going into last season before tearing his ACL right at the beginning of the season. This year, there was less hype, but he won out in some tough wrestle-offs to take the starting spot. I had hopes that he could make a positive impact on the lineup. Then he went out and wrestled like crap. Carter Happel nearly took the starting spot, but then Turk got another chance and he just started letting loose. He was uber-aggressive, and he was causing fits for people. His defense seemed nearly non-existent, but he was going for so much offense that decisions were going in his favor, and the matches were all exciting as hell. His only losses at the Big Ten Tournament were to Joey McKenna and Nick Lee, the fourth and eighth ranked wrestlers at 141. I really like Turk, but this weight class is STACKED. The depth is the best of any weight class, and although I think Turk gets some wins, I can't quite see him making it to All-American status.

All-Americans

1. Yianni Diakomihalis

2. Bryce Meredith

3. Dean Heil

4. Joey McKenna

5. Jaydin Eierman

6. Kevin Jack

7. Michael Carr

8. Mason Smith

149 - Brandon Sorensen - #2 Seed

Sorensen is Iowa's highest seeded wrestler, but he does not have the best chances of winning a National Championship, due to the existence of Zain Retherford, an absolute monster who will be closing in on his third national title this year. Sorensen is great, but Retherford is transcendent, and although Sorensen should make the finals, he has never beaten Retherford, and I just can't see that changing on Saturday night.

All-Americans

1. Zain Retherford

2. Brandon Sorensen

3. Ryan Deakin

4. Grant Leeth

5. Justin Oliver

6. Troy Heilmann

7. Ke-Shawn Hayes

8. Jason Tsirtsis

157 - Michael Kemerer - #6 Seed

Let's just get this out of the way: Michael Kemerer got totally screwed on seeding. That is not just Iowa homerism in me either, as everyone seems to agree. Yes, he got caught and pinned against Micah Jordan in the semifinals. That's bad, but that also only made Jordan 1-1 against him. Kemerer then forfeited out of the tournament, which the NCAA seeding committee definitely punished this year. Still, Jason Nolf, whose resume this year is nearly identical to Kemerer's, injury defaulted a round earlier than Kemerer and managed the #3 seed. Somehow, Kemerer fell to sixth despite having a convincing win over the #4 seed, Josh Shields earlier this year. It does not make sense, and it means that Kemerer will have to go up against Jason Nolf in the quarterfinals. Nolf was hurt earlier this year but is at least close to back to normal as he was fairly impressive in his two wins in the Big Ten Tournament. It should never happen that whoever wins a quarterfinal matchup is the favorite to win the whole thing, but here we are, and if these guys are near 100%, the winner is going to go on to win the National Title. I want to pick Kemerer so bad, but until I see someone actually beat Jason Nolf, I can't pick against him. I don't see Kemerer losing to anybody else in this tournament.

All-Americans

1. Jason Nolf

2. Hayden Hidlay

3. Michael Kemerer

4. Alec Pantaleo

5. Josh Shields

6. Micah Jordan

7. Joseph Lavallee

8. Andrew Crone

165 - Alex Marinelli - #5 Seed

Well, where Kemerer got screwed on seeding, Marinelli seemed to get a fairly generous draw. He should be able to handle his first two opponents with limited worries before facing Chad Walsh of Rider. Although Walsh has an impressive 24-1 record, it was done against fairly weak opposition. His best win is against #9 seed, Chance Marsteller, who also beat Walsh once. I think Marinelli can get that one, although I can't see him getting by Martinez in the semifinals. At that point, his NCAA Tournament would be at least as good as his sixth place finish at the Big Tens, so I think Hawkeyes fans should be pleased with Marinelli's performance.

All-Americans

1. Isaiah Martinez

2. Logan Massa

3. Vincenzo Joseph

4. David McFadden

5. Alex Marinelli

6. Chance Marsteller

7. Anthony Valencia

8. Richie Lewis

174 - Joey Gunther - Unseeded

Gunther had a solid year bumping up to 174 this season, but it's tough to see him making much of an impact. I could see him getting a couple wins, but nothing more than that as I don't think he will be near competing for All-American status. This weight class is fascinating as it has three undefeated wrestlers in Zahid Valencia, Mark Hall, and Daniel Lewis. I think those top two guys are clearly better than the rest, but Daniel Lewis may surprise me. He's been a bonus point machine, but it has been against a weak schedule so it's tough to say how good he is at 174. I'm not buying what he's selling though.

All-Americans

1. Zahid Valencia

2. Mark Hall

3. Bo Jordan

4. Daniel Lewis

5. Myles Amine

6. Jaeden Bernstein

7. Ethan Ramos

8. Taylor Lujan

184 - Mitch Bowman - Unseeded

Bowman is a solid wrestler for the Hawkeyes, but there is ntohing about him that really stands out. Sometimes, he's relentless; other times, he gets stuck on the mat with no hope of getting up. Sometimes he'll be ultra aggressive; other times, he will barely go for a shot. Even when he's on, it's not the most impressive thing in the world. If he gets a couple wins, it will be a nice tournament for him, but he probably has the best chance of not scoring any team points for the Hawkeyes, so no, I do not see him becoming an All-American. At the top of the bracket, you've got Bo Nickal. Abounader could give him some troubles, but Bo Nickal is really freaking good, so I've got to pick him at this weight class.

All-Americans

1. Bo Nickal

2. Myles Martin

3. Pete Renda

4. Dominic Abounader

5. Emory Parker

6. Maxwell Dean

7. Ryan Preisch

8. Drew Foster

197 - Cash Wilcke - #14 Seed

Cash Wilcke made it to the Round of 12 last year, and although I love Cash Wilcke, I kind of saw that as his ceiling again this year. Many probably thought I was pretty dumb when he was undefeated and ranked fifth in the nation. I would have been so happy to be dumb about that, but instead, I was correct, and he basically fell apart during the second half of the season. He can be competitive against all but the very best in this division, but it is going to take him squeaking out a whole lot of wins for him to make it to All-American status. I predict the same result as last year, where he makes the Round of 12, just barely falling short of AA. Oh, and this weight class is a total clusterfuck, and I have no idea what is going to happen. Random predictions below.

All-Americans

1. Kollin Moore

2. Jared Haught

3. Ben Darmstadt

4. Michael Machiavello

5. Nate Rotert

6. Preston Weigel

7. William Miklus

8. Shakur Rasheed

Heavyweight - Sam Stoll - #5 Seed

Sam Stoll is right where he should be in the seeds. If he wrestles like he should, he will cruise into the quarterfinals against Duke's Jacob Kasper. I don't love Stoll's chances in that match, but I wouldn't count him out either. Even if he does win that match, he's not getting by America's greatest living athlete, Kyle Snyder, so don't expect to see him wrestling Saturday night. But for the first time, Stoll is actually healthy at the NCAA Tournament, and I think he does enough to become an All-American. It's going to be Snyder and Coon in the finals, and although they have split their first two matches this year, there is no way I am going to pick against Snyder. 

All-Americans

1. Kyle Snyder

2. Adam Coon

3. Jacob Kasper

4. Sam Stoll

5. Tanner Hall

6. Derek White

7. Nick Nevills

8. Michael Boykin

And that wraps up my selections for the tournament. Iowa is definitely not winning a team title this year, but with Lee, Sorensen, and Kemerer, they have three guys who have the potential to be competing on Saturday night. And seriously, take a break from college basketball and at least tune in on Saturday night, it really is one of the most fun sporting events of the year.

Watch Iowa vs. Oklahoma State Wrestling on Sunday

On Sunday, January 14 at 4:00 PM EST, plant your ass on the couch, turn on your TV, flip to BTN, and watch the greatest sporting event of the weekend. The two most-storied programs in college wrestling will square off as Oklahoma State comes to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Although it is unlikely that either team ends up on top of the podium at the end of the NCAA Tournament, they both have top-5 talent on their rosters. It's lining up to be a very close dual, so let's break it down to see how the good guys can beat the Cowboys this weekend.

125 - Spencer Lee vs. Nick Piccininni

This is the best match of the meet. Spencer Lee is the most exciting wrestler Iowa has had since Brent Metcalf, and he's the first true freshman to start for Iowa under Tom Brands (technically, there were two others but both took a year off between high school and starting their college careers). He convinced Iowa to pull his redshirt a couple weeks ago when he tech falled a top-10 wrestler at 125. Spencer Lee has ridiculous offense, and he is immediately a national title contender.

Piccininni is already disliked by the Hawkeyes as he got into a bit of a skirmish with last year's starter, Thomas Gilman, who then challenged him to a street fight. Piccininni is currently ranked third in the nation, and Spencer Lee is currently ranked 11th since he just took over the starting spot. Even though Piccininni has the advantage in ranking (sixth), that's going to change after this week. The guy repeatedly got handled by Gilman last year, and his luck isn't going to change with Spencer Lee in the lineup. It'd be crazy to pick anything more than a decision, but considering that Lee is going to have a packed Carver Hawkeye Arena cheering him on, I'll be a little crazy and predict a major decision for Lee.

Iowa 4-0

133 - Paul Glynn vs. Kaid Brock

Iowa may need those bonus points, because the next two matches are very unlikely to go in their favor. Paul Glynn is unranked and still battling for the starting job with Phil Laux, but I don't think it matters a ton against Kaid Brock. Brock is currently ranked fifth, but that's about as low as I could see him finishing at the NCAA Tournament; he's pretty dang good. This isn't going to be fun for Iowa, but I'll have a little faith and hope that Glynn can hold him to major decision.

Tied 4-4

141 - Carter Happel vs. Dean Heil

It's the same story at 141. Happel has seemed to take over the 141 spot from Vince Turk, but he's not a big time talent. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has two-time defending National Champion, Dean Heil, on their side. Heil has already lost twice this year, but they were both in super close matches to top notch guys. He's not losing here, but Heil usually doesn't pour the points on, so he'll likely be held to a decision.

Oklahoma State 7-4

149 - Brandon Sorensen vs. Boo Lewallen

Sorensen is the clear number two at the 149 weight class, but he kind of resembles Dean Heil in that he does not get bonus points as often as you would expect from a guy of his caliber. Boo Lewallen is still battling teammate Geo Martinez for the starting spot, but he did beat him a few weeks ago when they squared off so he is the likely starter. He's currently the 13th best guy at the weight which isn't good enough to get an upset, but he should keep it close. Sorensen by decision.

Tied 7-7

157 - Michael Kemerer vs. Jonce Blaylock

The same thing that was said about Sorensen can be said about Kemerer, except the part about not scoring a ton of points, as Kemerer has been tearing through his competition this year. He's only had two matches that weren't either a pin or technical fall, and I expect him to do the same in this match as Blaylock is nothing special. I think Kemerer wins and wins big. KemDawg by fall.

Iowa 13-7

165 - Alex Marinelli vs. Chandler Rogers

This is probably the second best match in the dual. Chandler Rogers is ranked 7th while Marinelli is at 11th. But Marinelli is undefeated and seems to have improved from last year. He won the Midlands and now has two wins over Richie Lewis who is a borderline top-10 wrestler. Those rankings don't do either guy enough justice as 165 is absolutely stacked this year. This is a match that Marinelli needs to prove himself, and if he puts a high pace on, I think he can edge Rogers out with a decision.

Iowa 16-7

174 - Joey Gunther vs. Jacobe Smith

Joey Gunther is a guy who slightly outside of the top-20, and Jacobe Smith is ranked 12th. Neither guy is a world beater, but Smith is definitely the favorite. It won't be a beatdown, but it also won't be a win for Iowa. Smith by decision.

Iowa 16-10

184 - Mitch Bowman vs. Keegan Moore

This is probably the least exciting matchup of the dual. Moore just cracked the rankings at #19, so I give him the advantage by decision.

HOWEVER, there are rumblings that Pat Downey might be making his Hawkeye debut this weekend. If that's the case, change this to a major decision for the good guys, but I'll believe it when I see it, so we'll plan for Bowman for now. 

Iowa 16-13

197 - Cash Wilcke vs. Preston Weigel

Cash Wilcke has gotten in the habit of exceeding my expectations. He literally came from out of nowhere, as he was a last minute injury replacement, to make the Round of 12 at the NCAA Tournament. Then he has gone out and beaten everyone he has faced. He's had a lot of close matches, but the guy keeps finding ways to win. He's now ranked fifth in the nation but faces his toughest test in Preston Weigel who is currently ranked third in the nation. I'm going to continue to underestimate Wilcke and pick Weigel to take this one by decision. Hopefully I'm proven wrong again.

Tied 16-16

Heavyweight - Sam Stoll vs. Derek White

A healthy Sam Stoll is not somebody you want to have to go up against if you are a heavyweight not named Kyle Snyder. Stoll has been taking care of business with plenty of pins, and he finally got his first marquee victory when he beat #4 ranked wrestler, Tanner Hall in the Midlands Finals. Derek White is currently ranked 11th, but Sam Stoll going to put a beating on him. He probably won't get big points, but he won't need them as Stoll hasn't given up a takedown yet this year. Stoll gets the win for himself and for the team, as Iowa takes the dual.

Iowa 19-16

As you can see, I have Iowa coming out on top, but I have each team winning five matches. If bonus points go the wrong way, Oklahoma State could definitely steal this one. There are probably five matches where it wouldn't be shocking to see the result go the other way, but Iowa also has the Pat Downey factor, as if he wrestles, I think Iowa wins comfortably. Either way, ignore whatever crummy football game is on, and tune to BTN, because this is going to have twice the action with none of the CTE. I can't wait.

Iowa Wrestling: Who Has The Best Shot At A National Title in 2018?

Wrestling season is finally upon us which means we are just four months away as I stand alone on a mountain, screaming at the top of my lungs that you should be watching March Matness instead of March Madness. Again, nobody will hear my screams. Iowa lost a lot of talent from last year's roster, so they are more in a rebuilding mode, but it is Iowa, so it's not like they aren't going to be incredibly good. Do they have a realistic shot at winning the team title? Well, that depends, is it realistic to expect both Penn State and Ohio State (and possibly Michigan) to all miss weight at the national tournament? If so, they definitely have a shot at the team title.

But I'm going to focus on the individuals today and go through who has the best shot at making an impact on a national level. We'll start at the bottom and move our way up to the Hawkeye that will lead this team to glory.

10. Justin Stickley - 125
This is the biggest wildcard on the team. At wrestle-offs, he dominated Perez Perez, so he really couldn't have looked much better without getting pins in his matches, but that isn't a ton to go off of. This isn't a super loaded weight class. I think everything went right for Darian Cruz at the NCAA Tournament, and I don't really see him as a threat to repeat. The two real studs this year are Nick Suriano of Rutgers and Nathan Tomasello of Ohio State. Stickley doesn't appear to have the horsepower to be a threat, but I do think he will get better as the season goes along. But he's got a lot of ground to make up if he even wants to qualify for the tournament.

Of course, that all changes if Spencer Lee burns his redshirt and wrestles this season. Spencer Lee is a SPECIAL wrestler. He lost one match during his high school career, and that was with a torn ACL against Austin DeSanto, who has been tearing things up at 133 this year. If he does wrestle, he's top-4 and without a doubt, a threat to take him the National Title. He dominated the UNI Open this past weekend and just off that, I'd probably put him at #2 or #3 on this list, and that may be too low.

9. Paul Glynn or Philip Laux - 133
The bad thing about this team is that it's going to be tough for Iowa to have an individual champion this year. But the good thing about this team is that it has no notable weak spot. I fully expect Iowa to qualify guys at all ten weights, and it's pretty reasonable to think that all of them could even be seeded. Philip Laux has been a solid backup for Iowa the past couple seasons, but he never really shined. Paul Glynn beat Laux in the wrestle-offs, but then lost to a guy that Laux beat at the Luther Open. Since then, Laux has seemed to take over the weight class. Both of these guys should be tough, but neither will provide much of a ceiling for this weight. I can see a few wins at the tournament, but I don't see All-American status for the Hawkeyes this year.

8. Vince Turk or Carter Happel - 141
If you would have asked me where Turk should be after the Iowa City Duals, I would have had him in the top five. Turk was injured in his first match last year and was out for the year, but he looked great early on. After that, he has stopped looking great as slow starts have doomed him in recent matches. The issue with this weight class is that it is very deep, but there aren't unbeatable monsters at this weight. Dean Heil always finds a way to win at the top, but everyone else is in that same grinding, close decision style. If Turk can grind with the best of them, he could pull some upsets and find himself wrestling in the quarterfinals on Friday morning. The floor is very low as it wouldn't be shocking if he went 0-2 and was eliminated from the tournament, but I think he has the potential to at least win a couple matches this year.

7. Cash Wilcke - 197
This may seem low, considering Cash Wilcke is one of the few returning Hawkeyes that competed at last year's NCAA Tournament. Not only that, he made it to the Round of 12, just one win shy of All-American status. But my expectations aren't that high for Wilcke, because EVERYTHING went right for him last year. He won so many close matches in that tournament, and had there not been an injury right before the tournament, he wasn't even going to qualify to make it. He made the most of his opportunity, so hopefully it's a sign of things to come, but he's still going to be doing his best to grind it out as an undersized 197 which is not an easy thing to do. I think he qualifies on his own merit to the NCAA Tournament, but I think the blood round is likely where his ceiling lies at this weight, and I think he'll have a lot of trouble repeating that performance.

6. Joey Gunther or Kaleb Young - 174
I'll admit that I thought Kaleb Young would take this weight convincingly from Joey Gunther, but Gunther won the wrestle-off in overtime, so he's getting the first shot at the starting gig. Both guys are wrestling up a weight class from last year where Gunther won a couple matches at the NCAA Tournament and Young had a very impressive redshirt year. I see these guys as having the potential to be ranked in the 10-12 range by the end of the season. Although on seed alone, that falls short, you never know how things may go at the NCAA Tournament, so it wouldn't be crazy to see them being a threat to be a low-level All-American this year.

5. Alex Marinelli - 165
Super recruit, Alex Marinelli, is finally ready to shine for the Hawkeyes after an impressive redshirt year last season. Still, even though his season was impressive, he did falter when taking on top notch competition. He's going to be very good this year, but 165 is stacked at the top. If everything breaks right, I could see him in the top five, but I more see him as a likely All-American, and my prediction is probably sixth for this season. The thing with Marinelli is the ceiling isn't great this season, but the floor is pretty high as he's a takedown machine who is going to be tough to upset at the tournament.

4. Sam Stoll - Heavyweight
Although this is Stoll's third year as the starting heavyweight for Iowa, we still really don't know what his potential is when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. I mean, is he going to beat Kyle Snyder, a man who is on his way to becoming the greatest American wrestler ever? No, he's not going to do that. But he could give just about anybody else a run for their money. Unfortunately, he was hurt going into the tournament during his freshman year, and an injury ended his sophomore year before he had a chance to compete at the tournament last year. I would say that he is at least an All-American this year. I think Coon will likely lock up that number two spot, but I could see Stoll anywhere from 3-6 this season. He's a big dude who can give anybody troubles.

3. Brandon Sorensen - 149
I only see one possible loss from Sorensen against anybody in the 149 pound division, but that one loss is nearly guaranteed against Zain Retherford who will likely be battling his teammate for the Hodge Trophy as college wrestling's best wrestler. I think Sorensen will be wrestling in the finals on Saturday night, but I do not see a way for him to get past The Zain Train.

2. Michael Kemerer - 157
Read above, but replace Zain Retherford's name with Jason Nolf's, and you pretty much have the same story. I give Kemerer a slightly better chance of upsetting Nolf, but the odds still aren't great. He got handled both times they wrestled last year, and even if Kemerer has improved, it's not like you can expect Nolf to stagnate. I see Kemerer making the Finals, but there is no logical way to pick him to upset Nolf at this point.

1. Pat Downey - 184
For my top spot, I am selecting a man who is not even on the Iowa Wrestling team at the moment. Downey is currently finishing his degree up at Iowa State University with the plan to be a graduate transfer for the Hawkeyes once the second semester begins. He's not technically a part of the team yet, so this is definitely a risky pick for my best chance of winning a National Title in 2018, but this is not the strongest Hawkeye team ever, so it's worth taking the risk. Pat Downey, despite being a senior, is one of the greatest mysteries in college wrestling. He started his career at Nebraska, never wrestled, and transferred to Iowa Central Community College to wrestle for a year. After that, he transferred to Iowa State where he wrestled at 197 and took fifth place, and very easily could have taken third had he not lost in sudden victory to former Hawkeye, Nathan Burak. Last year, he went 7-0 in limited action, mostly at his more natural weight class of 184, but got in trouble, and was unable to compete in the NCAA Tournament. Over the offseason, he beat Gabe Dean in freestyle but lost to the defending national champion at 184, Bo Nickal. Both Nickal and Downey are big move guys, and I really believe anything could happen when they square off. The weight class lost a ton of talent this past year, and Downey should immediately be considered a top-4 wrestler, even with a limited track record of success. At this point, there is no way to consider Downey the favorite, as Nickal has gone out and won an NCAA Tournament, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Downey is standing atop the podium on Saturday night, that is, of course, if he actually joins the Iowa Wrestling team. 

A Look Back at Iowa Wrestling's 2017 NCAA Tournament

I needed a little bit of time to recover before I could do any sort of analysis of the NCAA Wrestling Tournament. It was yet again the best sporting event of the year, even though I can admit that the finals were less than stellar this year. But that's the beauty of the tournament; it's often the leadup that makes things magical. There were incredible matches throughout the tournament, which makes it easier to take Penn State's dominance on Saturday night. But Penn State's dominance is far too depressing of a topic for me right now, so instead, let's look at the mixed bag of Iowa's performance at the NCAA Tournament.

9. Topher Carton - 141 - 2-2: DNP
Here's the thing with Carton's performance. It really wasn't disappointing. It just kind of happened. He won his first match in the pigtail pretty easily. Then he went against George DiCamillo, who made the National Finals this year and got majored, but that's really not too shocking either. He bounced back and majored Cole Martin in the consolation side of the bracket. Then he took on Luke Pletcher which could be seen as a toss up match, but Pletcher seemed to have his number this year and beat Carton 9-6. It was a totally fine performance, but Carton wrestled well enough this year where you could envision him pulling off an extra win or two, but it just didn't happen for him.

8. Thomas Gilman - 125 - 5-1: 3rd Place
Is this too low for Gilman? Probably, but Gilman was the best guy at 125; it wasn't particularly close, and he still didn't come away with a National Title. He came out exactly like he should on his way to the semifinals with two major decisions, followed by a pin. The number two and three seeds had already been sent packing, so it seemed as if Gilman would cruise to a title. But weird things happen at the NCAA Tournament. Gilman wrestled super tight the entire match against Darian Cruz, but Gilman controlled the offense in the match, but eventually his hesitation cost him. He shot in, got Cruz's leg and...held it there. All it took was one beat and Cruz spun hard, kicking his leg free and getting behind Gilman for the two. Thank god for the guy at the top of this list, because I was legitimately distraught on Friday night when Gilman lost. Bravo to Cruz for getting the win, but there is no doubt that Gilman was the best 125 pound wrestler this year. He ended up taking care of business on the backside and getting third place, but anything less than first place was going to be a huge disappointment. I still can't believe he didn't win the National Title.

7. Joey Gunther - 165 - 2-2: DNP
I kind of came into the tournament thinking that if things broke right, Gunther would get one win. Instead, he got two wins, so congratulations to him. He got handled in his opening match, but then came back to win back-to-back matches on the backside of the bracket. His luck ran out when he went up against Bryce Seitert of Northern Iowa, but it was a really solid performance for Gunther. He got better and better during his Freshman season, and usually that would be something to build on. Unfortunately, super recruit, Alex Marinelli, will likely take over the starting spot at 165 next year, and Kaleb Young is going to be tough to beat out at 174. I don't know where things go from here, but Gunther grinded out a lot of matches this year, so let's hope he continues to grind for the Hawkeyes.

6. Alex Meyer - 174 - 2-2: Round of 12
Sometimes results aren't necessarily as important as how someone wrestles in the tournament. Alex Meyer may have only gone 2-2, but he wrestled his ass off. In the first round, he took care of his unseeded opponent and followed it up by upsetting the number six seed in Ryan Preisch from Lehigh. Then, for six and a half minutes, he wrestled his best match of the season. He went up against Bo Jordan of Ohio State, who made the NCAA Finals (and probably should have won if replay had given him what looked to be a takedown). Meyer was up 3-2 with less than a minute left in the match, but with about thirty seconds left, he couldn't stop Jordan from getting to his legs and Jordan got the takedown and ride out to win the match 4-3. After that, he had a match with Kyle Crutchmer and unfortunately got hit with a six point move. He worked his butt off to come back with nonstop aggression but Crutchmer was able to stall his way to victory, 13-10. Last year, Meyer was an All-American, and this year he wasn't. Usually, that would put him lower on this list, but I was able to watch all four of his matches, and even though the results weren't there, the wrestling was, and there's no shame in how Meyer ended his Hawkeye career.

5. Sammy Brooks - 184 - 4-2: Fourth Place
Brooks came in ranked as the three seed, and he ended up finishing fourth. In his wins, he looked as good and possibly better than expected as he pulled off multiple pins and probably the most exciting single moment for Iowa when he managed to reverse a throw and pin Emery Parker of Illinois in the Quarterfinals. I nearly yelled in excitement while watching at work, so that probably would have blown my cover that I only had it on as background noise. Then he went up against Bo Nickal, and it appears Nickal just has Brooks's number as he pinned him yet again in the first period. He bounced back with a convincing win over returning National Champion, Myles Martin, but then got down early and eventually took a pin against TJ Dudley, another guy who has given Brooks a lot of trouble. The Mullet ends his career with back-to-back All-American honors which isn't too shabby.

4. Brandon Sorensen - 149 - 5-1: Third Place
Sorensen wrestled as well as anyone could expect. He came in seeded fifth, but I think every wrestling fan saw that as an absolute worst case scenario. He lost to the top two seeds at the end of the second overtime by riding time advantage. What hurt him on seeding was getting upset by Pat Lugo of Rutgers and losing to Micah Jordan in the Big Ten Tournament. He would end up avenging that loss twice over during the NCAA Tournament. First, he beat Micah Jordan in the quarterfinals, 3-0, but that fifth seed meant that he'd be facing the overwhelming favorite, Zain Retherford, in the semifinals. The good news is Sorensen was the only person to not get tech fall'd against Retherford; the bad news is that Sorensen got pinned in one of the most painful moves I have seen on a wrestling mat. Even after the disappointing loss, he bounced back on Saturday to major decision Solomon Chishoko of Virginia Tech before beating Micah Jordan again for third place, and he didn't give up a single point in either of those matches. Sorensen will go into next season as the second ranked wrestler, but unfortunately, Zain Retherford will be back, which just about guarantees that he's fighting for second place.

3. Michael Kemerer - 157 - 6-1: Third Place
I'll admit that these next two picks may be higher than some might place them. Sorensen got third place as a fifth seed, while Kemerer got third place as a two seed. But it's one of those situations where watching Kemerer, there's really only one guy who wrestled better, and that guy ended up with a title. In his first match, he got a major decision, and he followed that up with a tech fall. His quarterfinal match was against Dylan Palacio which was a nonstop scramble until Kemerer got caught in a weird position and got pinned. The pin seemed questionable, but had Palacio gotten four back points, it was going to be tough for Kemerer to come back. That was definitely disappointing, but it didn't slow down Kemerer. He ended up going on the backside and taking three straight major decisions, including one over Tyler Berger, who gave him one of the best matches of the year during the Midlands this season. He ended going up against Joe Smith of Oklahoma State, who stalled his way to overtime, but Kemerer kept shooting and shooting and shooting until he took Smith to his back in overtime to win the match 7-1 and take third place. Nolf is a monster at 157, but Kemerer looked better in his second match against him than he did in his first, so it wouldn't be completely shocking if he is able to close the gap even more next year. Either way, Kemerer is going to be a ton of fun to watch for the next three seasons.

2. Cash Wilcke - 197 - 3-2: Round of 12
On results alone, there is no way to put Wilcke this high. I mean, the guy didn't even place. But holy shit did this guy beat expectations. When they announced the seedings and at-large bids, you know where Wilcke was seeded? He wasn't seeded. In fact, he didn't even qualify for the dang tournament. He was literally the last guy added as an injury replacement. If he went in and won one match, it would be something for Iowa fans to celebrate. Instead, he came up with a big upset over 13th seeded, Tom Sleigh. Then he did lose to Jared Haught but came back in the consolations to get a win over Josh Marchok. He then had arguably the most insane match of the tournament against Frank Mattiace of Penn. Wilcke had a one point lead going into the final minute but gave up a reversal with about 15 seconds left. Finally, he gets a restart, but there are only two seconds left, and Mattiace has the one point lead, so it's basically over. But Mattiace also had two cautions, so he couldn't jump the gun or he'd give up a point. Wilcke explodes out and gets out before time expires, maybe partially helped by a timekeeper that was slow to start the clock. That sent my jaw to the floor and those guys both to overtime. Then in overtime, Mattiace has another false start, his third caution, and Wilcke gets the penalty point to win the match. It was insanity. He had gone from not qualifying for the tournament to one match away from All-American status. He ended up losing 7-6 in a match that wasn't quite that close, but it was such an impressive performance from Wilcke and has me way more excited about what he can do next year when he drops to his more natural weight of 184.

1. Cory Clark - 133 - 5-0: National Champion
This is a no brainer for top spot as Cory Clark, who had lost the last two years in the NCAA Finals, finally got over the hump and won a National Championship. And man, what a run he had this year. He had no easy outs in the tournament and earned it every step of the way. In his first match, he got Connor Schram, who was unseeded after being a returning All-American. Then, he took out Pat D'Arcy who upset the #13 seed in his first match. After that, he faced a super tough freshman in Stevan Micic from Michigan. After giving up an early takedown, Clark started to take over the match and won 6-4. That set up a match with Nathan Tomasello, a former National Champion, and the #1 ranked, only undefeated wrestler at 133. Clark may have lost in the B1G finals, but he controlled the action, with the benefit of two cheap takedowns, and took care of Tomasello 7-4. That set up a finals against his former teammate, Seth Gross, who had absolutely steamrolled his competition leading up to the finals. Gross's closest match was his opening match, where he shutout his opponent 5-0. Then he won by tech fall, followed by two major decisions. Again, Cory Clark gave up an early takedown but he kept battling and in the third period, he was able to get the decisive takedown to take a 4-3 lead. He rode out Gross in impressive fashion and was able to stand atop the podium. As disappointed as I was about Gilman not getting a title, I was just as happy to see Cory Clark finally end up on top. He is going to be dearly missed next season and beyond, but he ended his career the right way and earned his asterisk on the Iowa wrestling room wall.

Each Iowa Hawkeyes Wrestler's Chance at a National Title in 2017

The wrestling season is sadly winding down. All that is left is the National Duals, Conference Tournaments, and the NCAA Tournament. Even as an eternal optimist for the Iowa Hawkeyes, their chances at winning the team national title are incredibly slim. It is looking like they can qualify eight weights, with 197 and Heavyweight unlikely to make the cut. That alone puts them in a pretty deep hole, and two of their other qualifiers are unranked, so those guys putting up major points seems unlikely. Still, crazy things can happen in wrestling, so let's look at all ten starter's chances at winning a National Title this season.

10. Heavyweight - Steven Holloway
When Sam Stoll reinjured his knee, it basically ended Iowa's hopes for a team National Title. If healthy, he's a likely All-American and those missed points are tough to make up. Holloway is stepping in and doing his best. Unfortunately, he's small for the weight class and not skilled enough to make up for the size discrepancy. He's kept matches close outside of when wrestling the top guys at the weight, but he consistently falls short of pulling off the victories. It's not gonna happen.

9. 197 - Cash Wilcke
Unfortunately, the guy with the best name on the team probably doesn't have the best chances at making a dent at the NCAA Tournament. Wilcke is another guy that would probably be better suited at a lower weight class. He is doing a serviceable job as he has only been on the losing end of one major decision this year. He's kept matches close but just hasn't had quite the firepower to get things done. It wouldn't be totally shocking if he put together a strong Big Ten performance to qualify for the NCAAs, but even if he makes it, he will not be favored in any of his matches once he gets there. The good news is there will be a lot of turnover at 184 after this year (including his teammate Sammy Brooks), and it will be interesting to see what kind of damage he can do at his more natural weight.

8. 165 - Joey Gunther
Gunther has done enough this year. First, he did enough at 165 where Brands didn't feel like it was worth burning Alex Marinelli's redshirt for this season. He's continued to do enough by beating guys he should beat at 165 in close matches and even pulled off a good win against Nick Wanzek of Minnesota. With that, he's probably done enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament although it's not yet a guarantee. Gunther will reliably give you seven strong minutes out there. I think he qualifies, but even though he's gotten stronger as the year has gone on, I'd be pretty surprised if he got more than a win or two at Nationals.

7. 141 - Topher Carton
Carton may be Iowa's most improved wrestler as this season has gone on. Kevin Jack and Dean Heil are the only two guys who have definitively beaten him, and even those were just regular decisions. Otherwise, he has given guys fits, and even though he's still working on coming out on top, he's the type of guy who could pull off a big upset at the NCAAs. Usually a guy from Iowa can't sneak up at a national tournament, but Carton could prove to be the exception to that rule. 141 is a deep weight class, so there are going to be nothing but tough matches, but Carton has shown enough that he might be able to pull off some upsets and make some noise. It's still not likely, but it wouldn't totally shock me to see him in the Round of 12.

6. 174 - Alex Meyer
Now we get into the range of returning All-Americans. Meyer finished seventh last season and looked to have the opportunity to build on that as his weight class actually lost some of its heaviest hitters. Instead, he's had some rather disappointing performances in toss-up matches this year. Of course, he also beat Penn State Super Freshman, Mark Hall, a guy who has only lost one other time this year and has bonus points in 70% of his matches. Basically, it is impossible to know what you are going to get out of Alex Meyer. Nobody will blow him out, but he has the ability to beat and lose to anybody. If he's aggressive and pushing the pace, he could make a serious run, but if he is passive and on the defensive, it's probably not going to be a long tournament for him. Since I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to Iowa wrestling, I say he becomes a two-time All-American, although I have trouble seeing him advance more than a spot or two from last year's finish.

5. 184 - Sammy Brooks
Another seventh place finisher last year, I would love to put Brooks higher on this list, but there is a bit too much volatility in Brooks's outcomes for me to reasonably put him higher on this list. He only has two losses this season, one to Nate Jackson, which he avenged later in that same Midlands tournament, and the other to Bo Nickal, where he showed some hesitation on a good shot and got caught in a weird spot and pinned. I'm not really concerned about either of those outcomes. Bo Nickal is a monster offensively, but guys have shown that he can be scored on with a good pace. There is also two-time defending National Champion, Gabe Dean, who has seemed to take his wrestling to another level this season. Brooks wrestled him close a couple years ago, and that's why I believe he could beat anybody. I'd be shocked if Brooks didn't finish as a two-time All-American, and I think he could cause some damage if he gets the right matchups and stays aggressive in his matches. I think the likely outcome is the 3-5 range, but if don't be surprised if he's wrestling on Saturday night. Never doubt the mullet.

4. 157 - Michael Kemerer
Kemerer has exceeded all expectations in his first year wrestling for the Hawkeyes. I mean, I was incredibly excited about him last year, but he's even outdone my wildest expectations for him this year. He moved up a weight class this year and still has stormed through absolutely everybody except for #1 ranked, Jason Nolf. He's ranked second currently, and he will be expected to make the finals of the NCAAs. The reason he's only fourth on this list is partially due to the strong performances of the top three guys and partially because Nolf seemed to overwhelm him in their first match. I think Kemerer has the ability to close the gap on Nolf in the next month, but I have a real hard time seeing him overtake the top guy at that weight. Still, it's gonna be a ton of fun watching him close out his Freshman season.

3. 149 - Brandon Sorensen
Sorensen is in a similar boat as Kemerer, as he can pretty clearly beat anyone but the top guy at this weight, although Sorensen did lose by riding time in a match against Anthony Collica at Oklahoma State. Still, if Sorensen gets the second or third seed, I think he'll be favored to make it to the Finals. Last year, top seeded Zain Retherford dominated Sorensen in their two matches,as in two matches, Sorensen managed only a single escape point. But this year, he came out and wrestled his ass off against Retherford in one of the most exciting matches of the year. He did end up losing OT, but he showed that he can compete with Zain Train, who, outside of that match, has been the most dominant wrestler at any weight class in college wrestling. Do I think Sorensen will beat him? No, I don't think he will, but I also didn't think he'd be as close as he was earlier this season. I'm just really hoping that he doesn't have to worry about that match until the Finals.

2. 133 - Cory Clark
Yes, I know Clark got upset this past weekend against Nebraska, but I still believe in him. Cory Clark has finished second the last two years and has the chance to become a four-time All-American this year. Still, anything less than a Championship is going to be a disappointment for Clark's Hawkeye career. He has been so close for so long that Iowa fans are just waiting for him to get over the hump. Of course, when it finally looked like he would be the number one guy, favored to take it all, he suffered a shoulder injury, and although he's looked strong in his matches, he hasn't quite looked as dominant as he has in the past. 133 is a tough weight class, but there are no unbeatable monsters at this weight. There are probably five guys who could go on a run and win the thing with Tomasello (Ohio State), Brock (Oklahoma State), Richards (Illinois, and Gross (South Dakota State after transferring from Iowa). Clark's only other loss this season was to Brock, and it was a close match where Clark probably wasn't 100%. The season slows down over this next month, so it should give Clark an opportunity to rest and hopefully get close to 100%. The goal for the Big Ten Tournament should be to do enough to be ranked in the top three. At that point, you only have to take out two of the top guys instead of three of them. A healthy Clark wins the National Title this year. A Clark with a shoulder injury makes that proposition more dicey, but I still believe he can string things together and make a run.

1. 125 - Thomas Gilman
Gilman is the man at 125. He has gotten bonus points in all but three of his matches, once against second-ranked, Nick Suriano, once against Tim Lambert, who is another top five guy, and once against Josh Terao, who is just as funky as his brother who was a former All-American. Oh, yeah, there was that other match where Gilman got caught and was down 8-0 with his opponent having nearly four minutes of riding time, but Gilman started pouring on takedowns in the third period, and then decided to turn him over and get the pin. This was against the sixth-ranked wrestler in the nation, which, yeah, you shouldn't be able to do things like that to the sixth-ranked wrestler in the nation. Suriano and Joey Dance of Virginia Tech are both tough, but ain't nobody beating Gilman this year. Everything is coming together, and as long as he stays healthy over the next month, he's going to finally get an asterisk next to his name.

Overall, Iowa has a solid shot at four guys wrestling on Saturday night for the Finals. In one of those four matches, Iowa will have the favorite, they might have the favorite at another and would be heavy underdogs in the other two. Still, every year the NCAA surprises us. Iowa hasn't had an NCAA Tournament where they really peaked and exceeded expectations in quite a few years, so maybe this is the year that they shock the wrestling world. Penn State's going to win another National Title, aren't they? God damnit.

A Look at the 2016-2017 Iowa Wrestling Season So Far - Part 1

With the wrestling season about halfway over, I thought now would be a good time to check on how Iowa is performing so far this season. Although about half of the year is gone, there are still a lot of question marks, as most of the first half of the schedule provides more cupcakes than proven commodities. Still, things have started taking shape, and we'll go weight-by-weight to break things down.

125 - Thomas Gilman
Gilman has been, without a doubt, the best Iowa wrestler so far this season. He has gone out there and destroyed everything in his path, with the exception of a tough semifinal matchup this past week at the Midlands against Josh Terao from American, who used a whole lot of funk to keep it close but still came up short. Outside of that, he's gotten bonus points against everyone else he has faced this year. With Megaludis graduating and Tomasello moving up to 133, Gilman is the favorite to take the national title at 125, and judging by his wrestling so far this year, I have every reason to believe he will live up to the hype and get an asterisk this year.

133 - Cory Clark and Phillip Laux
Clark started the year off as everyone expected, by going out and dominating his opposition. His closest match was against his teammate, Phillip Laux, but even that match was never in doubt. Unfortunately, after that, Clark suffered an injury that appeared to be non-serious. They said he could have wrestled against Iowa State had he been needed, but he took that off, and three weeks later, the Midlands came and went without Clark seeing the mat. Hopefully it is just precautionary, as Clark is Iowa's second best chance at a National Champion behind Gilman.

Laux has been his replacement, and unfortunately for him, he took over the starting job right before the competition took a big step up. He got manhandled by Seth Gross of South Dakota State but then has held his own in his other matches, including against Iowa State All-American, Earl Hall. Still, Laux is small for the weight and just doesn't have the horsepower to overcome that disadvantage against top competition. He managed to go 2-2 at the Midlands, and he always competes; that's really all you can ask for.

141 - Topher Carton
This weight was originally supposed to be contested between Carton and Vince Turk, but Turk suffered a knee injury early in the season, so Carton was given the starting job to run with. Carton looked great early in the season as he was steamrolling overmatched opponents in nearly all of his matches. However, he finally ran into real competition at the Midlands, and things got far more difficult for him. Kevin Jack of North Carolina State controlled him in their match, which isn't too surprising as Jack is a national title contender. But he also lost a close match to Rohlfing from CSU Bakersfield, and it's those kinds of matches that he needs to find ways to win. He still doesn't have a marquee win, but he also hasn't had a lot of opportunities for one. He's definitely good enough to qualify for the NCAAs, but it's tough to tell how much he can do once he gets there until he starts facing consistent competition during the B1G conference schedule.

Also, fun fact, I was super confused when he was referred to as Christopher Carton at the Midlands. My first thought was that his middle name must be Topher, and then I finally realized that Topher is short for Christopher. It is clear that I have never met a Topher in my life.

149 - Brandon Sorensen
Sorensen has gone out and nearly gotten bonus points in all of his matches, and despite that, it still seems rather unimpressive. Sorensen is clearly the second best guy at 149, but it's also clear that he's still nowhere near #1 ranked Zain Retherford. He was in way too many matches that were too close for comfort, but he managed to come out on top against everyone but the Zain Train. I guess I'm just preemptively complaining about a possible upset loss in a close match at the NCAAs that may or may not happen. He hasn't lost one of those in a long time, so I guess it's best to just sit back and enjoy the terrifyingly close ride.

157 - Michael Kemerer
I am so freaking excited about Michael Kemerer. Iowa doesn't often have explosive athletes on the wrestling team, but when they do, they are so much fun to watch. The first name that came to my mind when watching Kemerer was Montell Marion. Marion came achingly close to a couple national titles, but never could pull it off, but that doesn't diminish how great it was to be able to watch him compete. When his offense was on, he could blast through people on the feet. Marion wasn't great at scoring on top, and right now, that's still a question mark for Kemerer as well, but the guy won the Midlands as a Freshman in maybe the most exciting match of the tournament against Nebraska's Tyler Berger. He's undefeated and seen as a top-5 guy. This is going to be fun.

Note: The only disappointing thing about Kemerer is his nickname is KemDawg. How is it not KemTrails? I might have to start a petition.

That's it for today. I'll finish up tomorrow with the big boys.

The Best and Worst of the Iowa Hawkeyes at the 2016 NCAA Tournament

So the NCAA Tournament did not exactly work out how Hawkeye fans had hoped it would. Penn State was expected to win, and they went out and dominated. It seems as if there is nobody better than Cael Sanderson in prepping his team for the NCAA Tournament, and this year was no different. Even though there were some disappointments for the Hawkeyes, there were also things to celebrate. Let's break it down in chronological order to get through the muck early, so we can celebrate late.

141 - Brody Grothus - N/A
Iowa didn't qualify anybody for the tournament, and there was no Vince McMahon to bring in a brand new Iowa wrestler, Grody Brothus, to liven things up at the Nationals. So, yeah, nothing to note here.

165 - Patrick Rhoads - 0-2
Rhoads was unseeded, and he lived up to that in the tournament. He lost both of his matches. He just didn't have the necessary skills to generate any offense. He wrestled hard; it just wasn't enough.

Heavyweight - Sam Stoll - 0-1
I knew this was a possibility. Sam Stoll's injured knee just couldn't hold up. If he was healthy, I think he would have become an All-American as a freshman, which would have been an incredible accomplishment. Only his knee did give out, and it's a what if as opposed to what actually happened. Wrestling is a hard sport, and it always sucks to see a talented guy not be able to showcase what he has worked so hard for because his body simply can't perform (Brian Realbuto was another example from this year). I'm guessing he'll still struggle early in the season next year, but he will hopefully be back to 100% by the time the matches get meaningful.

157 - Edwin Cooper - 1-2
We knew Cooper was going to need some good matchups to do much damage in this tournament, and unfortunately, he did not get those matchups. He got to his offense early in his first round matchup and took care of business with an 8-3 win. After that, he got matched up with Ian Miller, who nearly beat Isaiah Martinez in the semifinals, and Miller just ran right through Cooper. After that, he was in a match against Austin Matthews from Edinboro, and he started off really well as he got into a shot immediately, but he couldn't finish his shots. After that, he lost some scrambles, ended up on his back repeatedly, and finally got pinned as he knew it was basically the end for him. Obviously, it would have been preferable for him to win another match or two, but he beat the guy he should have, lost to a guy he should have, and didn't find the breaks in his the match that was pretty even going into it. It happens.

174 - Alex Meyer - 4-3 - All American (8th)
Alex Meyer came much closer to having a bigger impact in the tournament. Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start where he was in a match that was seven minutes long, and about six minutes of that were scrambles. He lost 10-9 to Gordon Wolf in a match that he would definitely win the next time around, but that's what makes winning the NCAAs so tough. You face a mystery opponent and one slip up and you've lost your shot at a national title. After that, Meyer really started wrestling great. In the consolation round, he took out the 4, 6, 9, and 14 seeds on his route to become an All-American, and I think he may have trailed in each of those matches. He finally lost to Zach Epperly who took third place in the tournament. Even that was on Friday night after Meyer had a match while Epperly advanced by medical forfeit. On Saturday morning, he lost a hard fought match against Cody Walters from Ohio who pulled out the victory in the final seconds. It was disappointing to end with a couple losses, but considering how he battled back after his first match, it was a really strong performance for Meyer and gives Hawkeyes a reason for excitement for his senior year.

184 - Sammy Brooks - 3-3 - All-American (8th)
Where Alex Meyer bounced back to become a happy surprise as an 8th place finisher, it seems that 8th place is what happened for Sammy Brooks because everything went wrong. He won his first two matches, and then had his third match with TJ Dudley of Nebraska. It was an issue of falling behind early and then not having enough time to catch up. He did make it interesting though as he continually went for upper body throws and actually put Dudley on his back for a second, but he couldn't hold the position, and Dudley held on to win and eventually make it to the finals. That easily could have been Brooks going up against Gabe Dean, but alas, it was not meant to be. On the back half, things continued to get screwy. Brooks faced Dominic Abounader from Michigan and put him on his back in the first period. Right before he is about to complete the pin, the second ref stops the match because he thought there may be an illegal hold. There wasn't, but Brooks lost the position and an extra two points. On top of that, Iowa lost another team point because Assistant Coach, Ryan Morningstar, would not stop screaming at the officials. Iowa would have made the podium as a team with those points, but fourth place isn't really all that important to the Hawkeyes despite what the announcers were saying on Saturday night. Back to Brooks, instead of having a two minute match, he had to go seven hard minutes and then wrestle again later that night against Mat Miller who did get a two minute pin and got up early on Brooks. Sammy went for a big move but got put on his back and pinned. The next morning it was more of the same where Brooks got down and never came close to coming back against Nathaniel Brown from Lehigh. It was a disappointing end to what had been a very good season for Brooks. Still, I think he's a top competitor at 184 next year.

197 - Nathan Burak - 4-2 - All-American (4th)
Burak did exactly what he was supposed to do. He was seeded fourth and he finished fourth. Really, there's nothing to complain about. He won his first three matches, went up against Morgan McIntosh and lost his sixth match to McIntosh. He couldn't generate any offense, and that's the way it has always gone against McIntosh. In what was the only match between Iowa and Iowa State wrestlers, Burak bounced back to beat Patrick Downey in sudden victory. He then lost to Brett Pfarr, a guy he had split with in their previous two matches. Burak was an incredibly solid wrestler for all four years, but he just never had the athleticism to take out the top guys. Iowa would be lucky to get anything close to Nathan Burak for their next starter at 197.

149 - Brandon Sorensen - 4-1 - All-American (2nd)
Brandon Sorensen came in as the #2 seed, and he lived up to that seed. Ultimately, it was a really good performance from Sorensen. The guy is not a point scoring machine, but he is solid everywhere, and he finds ways to win. After a major decision in the first round, he won by two points in his next three matches, one of which went to the second sudden victory period against Jake Sueflohn. It's not flashy, but it gets the job done, and it got him into the finals. That earned him a second match against Zain Retherford, and Retherford is just on another level right now. I think he deserves the Hodge Trophy for best wrestler at any weight class, and he completely overwhelmed Sorensen in the finals. Still, Sorensen did the best of any of his opponents as he was the only one to last all seven minutes. Retherford won by tech fall, pin, pin, and pin before the finals. I feel like second place was his ceiling, and he reached it. Unfortunately, Zain is only a sophomore, so I don't really see that ceiling changing in the next two years.

133 - Cory Clark - 4-1 - All-American (2nd)
Clark wrestled a smart tournament. And by smart, I am implying safe. He got a major decision in his first match and then just plugged along with enough offense to win each match. It got him to the finals where he met Nahshon Garrett, and Garrett is a different sort of wrestler. Technique wise, Clark can hang with anyone, but Garrett's athleticism gave him a lot of problems. Garrett did an excellent job of finding open spots to take his shots, and he was very successful in doing so. The match ended up 7-6, but it really wasn't that close, as Garrett took a large lead and played it safe to hang on to win in the end. Next year, this weight class opens up as the guys who have beat him the last two years (Garrett and Cody Brewer) both graduate. There's a good chance he opens the year as the top ranked wrestler in the 133 pound weight class.

125 - Thomas Gilman - 4-1 - All-American (2nd)
Although he was one of three Hawkeyes to be runner-up in his weight class, Gilman had the best performance of any Hawkeye in the tournament. He absolutely steamrolled his way into the semifinals with a tech fall and two major decisions. He then faced top-ranked Nathan Tomasello and battled for seven minutes. Tomasello almost got a takedown at the end, but Gilman managed to hold him off. Then in overtime, Tomasello looked pretty gassed, and Gilman was not only able to get a takedown, but he got the pin as well to give Iowa even more bonus points. Tomasello was the only top-seeded wrestler to not make the finals, so it was a great job by Gilman. As for the finals, Gilman had a good shot early on, but Megaludis was able to reverse the advantage and get two himself. It changed the whole dynamic of the match, and Gilman wasn't able to make up the deficit. Still, Gilman had a great tournament, and he'll be a co-favorite with Tomasello to win the National Title next year.

This was a disappointing season in many ways for Iowa. Not winning the National Title was not one of them, as Penn State was absolutely stacked, and it was going to take not only Iowa performing well but Penn State to perform poorly to rise to that standard. Still, fifth place is about as low as this team could have finished. The most disappointing part were all those even numbers in the All-American finishes. Every single Iowa wrestler ended his season with a loss. It leaves a bad taste in the mouth, but maybe it's just what they need to take a big step forward for 2017.

Do the Iowa Hawkeyes Have a Shot at the 2016 NCAA Wrestling Championship?

Does Iowa have a shot at the 2016 NCAA Wrestling Championship? Well, the short answer is yes. They have a shot, but they are going to need some help to pull it off. Iowa failed to qualify all ten weight classes this season, in fact; they barely qualified nine. That puts them in a slight hole, although tournament favorite, Penn State, has just as many wrestlers competing this weekend. I touched on which guys had the best shot of winning a National Title a couple weeks ago, so I'd definitely check that out, but now that the brackets are out, I wanted to quickly thoroughly look at how things shaped up for each Iowa wrestler before addressing their chances of winning the team title.

125 - Thomas Gilman - #4 Seed
After losing to Nico Megaludis of Penn State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament, this was as good of a seed as can be expected for Gilman There are four elite talents at this wegiht, so Gilman was going to have to go through two of them either way. I don't see any real chance of Gilman not making it into the semifinals (obviously, anything could happen, like Gilman getting caught in a cradle in the semifinals last year, but it's very doubtful). He has beaten #1 seed Nathan Tomasello before, and he has the skills to do it again. Joey Dance beat Megaludis earlier in the year, and that match could go either way. I had Gilman as having the best chance of winning a National Title, and I'd say that he has probably become 1B in my current rankings, but that is mostly because of how things shook out for Iowa's next wrestler.

133 - Cory Clark - #2 Seed
Cory Clark moves into that 1A spot based on him winning the Big Ten Tournament but also because he got a great draw for the tournament. The biggest benefit that despite Cory Clark beating Zane Richards in the finals of the B1G Tournament, Richards stayed at the 3 seed which means that the gy who beat Clark in last year's NCAA Tournament, the defending National Champion, Cody Brewer, is at the 4 seed on the same side as Nahshon Garrett, whom Brewer lost to earlier this season. The biggest dark horse in this weight, Ryan Taylor, from Wisconsin, got a 12 seed which also puts him on the opposite side as Clark. The biggest threat up until the semifinals is probably 10 seed, Johnni DiJulius, who has beaten Clark previously, but it seems like Clark has his funk figured out, and I expect him to cruise into the semifinals. This was a great draw, and that's why I'm even more excited about Clark's chances of getting an asterisk next to his name.

141 - Brody Grothus - Did Not Qualify
Brody Grothus got a tough draw in the B1G Tournament. He drew the top seed in his first match and lost a close match. Then the #3 seed got upset and met him in his first consolation match, and he lost another close match. Had things broken a little more favorably for him, he could have shown he has the talent to compete at the NCAAs, but it's an unfortunate end to an up and down career for Grothus.

149 - Brandon Sorensen - #2 Seed
Sorensen lost in the finals to Penn State's Zain Retherford, who has run through everyone this year. Sorensen maintained a #2 seed which is good, but his side of the bracket is no joke. He should cruise in his first two matchups, but that likely sets up another matchup against Jake Sueflohn, who Sorensen handled in the B1G Tourney but who is a very tough out. His side of the bracket also includes Lavion Mayes from Missouri, Anthony Collica from Oklahoma State, and former National Champion Jason Tsirtsis, who appears to be struggling with injuries this year but is still a guy who can make a match against anybody. Sorensen has the skills to make it to the finals; there's a reason he's ranked #2, but he never really threatened Retherford when they wrestled, so it's really hard to see a National Title coming his way.

157 - Edwin Cooper - #13 Seed
Edwin Cooper has made tremendous strides this year, and it's a great accomplishment to get seeded at this weight. That being said, it's going to be tough to rise up and become an All-American, because this weight class is DEEP. As long as he wins in the first, he takes on Ian Miller, who is a returning All-American whose only loss was due to a concussion suffered in his conference tournament last weekend where he was forced to injury default in his match. This weight class is stacked on paper, but that's the beauty of this tournament, in that anything can happen in seven minutes of wrestling.

165 - Patrick Rhoads - Unseeded
Well, I'll be damned. Patrick Rhoads made the tournament. He is unseeded, but got a favorable draw in that he goes up against the #13 seed. Rhoads wrestled really well in the B1G tournament outside of taking a beating from the top seed, Isaac Jordan. He has the skills to make matches tight against all but the top level of competition, so maybe a couple matches will go his way. He's not making the podium, but he has the potential to score some points, and Iowa needs all of the points they can get in their efforts for a team title.\

174 - Alex Meyer - #13 Seed
More than any wrestler on Iowa's roster, Meyer has put Hawkeye fans through an emotional rollercoaster this year. He has raised expectations, only to dash them later on. When he is aggressive early on, he can take out anybody, but sometimes he digs himself large holes early and doesn't have enough time to make up the deficits. Predicting what he is going to do is a fool's errand. He's just had so many close matches this year. Since I'm an eternal optimist, I think the aggressive Meyer will show up and put points on the board and cause major issues for anybody he goes up against. He has the skills to be an All-American, but he could just as easily play with fire and burn out before the Round of 12.

184 - Sammy Brooks - #2 Seed
Sammy Brooks receiving the #2 seed seems...generous. I'm not complaining, but I do believe this seeding was only partly from him winning the B1G Tournament; a lot of the credit has to go to the power of his mullet.

Outside of Gabe Dean at #1, 184 is a wide open but very deep division, and that is why Brooks got the 2 seed for the NCAAs despite only being the 3 seed for the B1G Tournament. Full disclosure: Sammy Brooks is my favorite current Iowa wrestler, and so I am even more blinded by my own bias when it comes to predicting his results. He can beat anybody at this weight class. He wrestled Gabe Dean last year and only lost 3-2. All of his losses to college wrestlers this season have come to guys that he has also beaten this year. I'd say he cruises through his first two matches before meeting 10 seed, Nate Brown in the quarters. I'm then favoring Blake Stauffer (6) to make it to the semifinals. He was the guy who eliminated Brooks in the Round of 12 last year, but I'm hoping Sammy can reverse his fortune this year. I'm not guaranteeing a National Title, but I just want to let everybody know that it is in your best interest to not doubt the power of the mullet.

197 - Nathan Burak - #4 Seed
The one inexplicably bad seed for Iowa, as it makes no sense that Pfarr from Minnesota would be ranked ahead of Burak considering he lost to him in the B1G Tournament. He did beat him earlier in the season, but even that was controversial, and the NCAA valued tournament performance very highly when coming up with seeds. One spot may not seem like much, but it puts him on the side of Morgan McIntosh, who he is 0-5 against, and the 5 seed is Conner Hartmann who is 26-1 this year and appears to be a much tougher matchup than the 6 seed, Jared Haught. Burak has taken care of business this year, but with his previous history against McIntosh, it's tough to see him doing any better than a third place match when it's all said and done.

HWT - Sam Stoll - #11 Seed
I think this is about as good as we could have expected for Sam Stoll after crapping out at the B1G Tournament. What happened? A significant knee injury, possibly a torn ACL, so the fact that he won any match is pretty impressive. But if it is as significant as it sounds, this is an awful way for Stoll to end his year as before this injury, his only losses were to the #1 seed, Nick Gwiazdowski and the #4 seed, Austin Marsden, who, between the two, have one loss this season. A healthy Stoll is an All-American, but if this version of Stoll can gut out 1-2 victories, it'd be a great performance.

So what does this all mean? Does Iowa have a legitimate shot at an NCAA Title? Yes, but they're going to need some breaks. Both Clark and Gilman have legitimate shots at National Titles this year, and if they can both pull it off, that is a huge boost to their chances. Even with that, Penn State is the clear favorite, and they're going to need some of their wrestlers to falter.

Zain Retherford isn't going to lose, and he's probably putting up a ton of bonus points. Morgan McIntosh is the second most likely to win a title, so you've got to hope that J'Den Cox can prevent that from happening. Bo Nickal doesn't have a single guy who looks most likely to take him out, but there's a reason Freshman don't win a lot of National Titles, so maybe he gets caught in a bad spot like he did against Nate Jackson and takes a loss well before he should. I think Nolf is their second best wrestler, but Isaiah Martinez beat him the B1G Finals, and he is set to face off against an undefeated Thomas Gantt before he even makes it there, but I have trouble seeing him not making the finals. Even Nico Megaludis, who is ranked 3, is somebody I could only see dropping to fourth place in this tournament. That's a lot of points in the worst case scenario, especially with how many bonus points those guys have put up this season.

As I said, Iowa needs those first two guys to take home titles for a legitimate shot at the overall title. After that, it's about having guys peak at the right time. Penn State has had their guys peak at the NCAAs for the last five years; Iowa has pretty much done the opposite. Those fortunes need to reverse this year. Iowa's always in the title hunt; hopefully this is the year they get number 24.

Which Iowa Wrestler Is Going to Win a National Title in 2016?

Last week, I looked at each weight class's #1 ranked wrestler to show how crazy this NCAA Tournament could be. There are a lot of questions remaining, and things are wide open in some of those weight classes. Now it's time to determine which Iowa wrestler is going to rise above their seed and win a National Title in 2016. We'll start from the least likely and move our way on up to the Hawkeye that is most likely to be standing on top of the podium at the end of March Matness.

10. Patrick Rhoads - 165
Is it legitimate analysis to just write, "Haha, nope," and call it a day? I will be excited if Rhoads finds a way to make the tournament. If he got a win once he got there, that would be incredible. But Rhoads simply hasn't shown enough for me to even dream beyond that point.

9. Brody Grothus - 141
This is the only other Iowa wrestler who is a question mark to make the tournament. He's going to need a strong performance at the Big Ten Tournament to qualify, but I think he can do it. Outside of that, it's tough to say what he will do considering he's only had a handful of matches. He can definitely compete with guys, and I think he could be a viable contributor of some points if he gets in the tournament, especially with how weak 141 is as a weight class overall, but he's still got work to do, so I can't put him any higher than this right now.

8. Edwin Cooper - 157
This weight class has two absolute studs in Isaiah Martinez and Jason Nolf, so the chances of a National Title, well, it ain't happening. The key for Cooper in his matches is to start quickly. He's shown to be really dynamic on his feet, but if he gets down, it can get ugly. He really hasn't done much in the world of mat wrestling, from top or bottom, so it is going to be tough for him to find a way to win close matches in the tournament. Still, he's got a few solid wins, and he's taken care of business against guys he should beat. The only time he was really overmatched was against Gantt from NC State, so he has the skills to make an impact. It would take an incredible run for him to even reach AA status, but he has enough potential to put up a few wins and get points for the team battle.

7. Sam Stoll - HWT
This is when we stop looking at straight talent and start looking at the obstacles standing in their way to a National Championship. Sam Stoll has had a hell of a Freshman year, as he has exceeded everyone's expectations for him. Since his first varsity match, he has lost just one time, while racking up nine pins. Oh, and that one loss? That came to the top-ranked Nick Gwiazdowski (which I spelled right on the first try). That's the problem. Nick Gwiazdowski is in this weight class, and although Stoll has beaten good competition, he hasn't beaten great competition. I think he can become an All-American, but his chances of a National Title are minuscule.

6. Alex Meyer - 174
I was very excited about Meyer taking over the starting spot this season, as he showed a ton of promise when filling in last year. If you just looked at his record, you would probably still be excited. He only has two losses, and went undefeated in the Big Ten. That's good, but watching it all play out tells a different story. Meyer has rarely been the attacking wrestler that he was last season. He just hasn't wrestled much top competition this year, and he hasn't blown out guys that aren't on his level. He only had one match where he looked overwhelmed, and that seemed to just be a bad matchup, but wrestling close matches all the time and expecting to always come out on top is not a recipe for success. This is a winnable weight class, as I'm not sold on Nickal being an elite talent (yet, dude is great for a freshman), but Meyer just has too many question marks to pick him any higher than this. Still, All-American status is well within reach, but with a guy who has so many close matches, I could see anything from 3rd place to a 1-2 finish.

5. Nathan Burak - 197
Burak could very easily be undefeated this year, and I still can't put him any higher than this. Burak is the most solid wrestler that Iowa has, as he's not going to make any big mistakes, and he'll wrestle a smart match. But there just isn't enough high-end talent to see him having a great shot at a National Title. Morgan McIntosh and J'Den Cox are elite talents, and I see Burak just below that level. I see him as having a very high floor as I would be shocked if he wasn't an All-American, but I see him peaking around third place, which would be a great finish, but I just can't see that National Title.

4. Sammy Brooks - 184
Sammy Brooks is my favorite current Hawkeye wrestler. He's not the best, but the dude always goes for it whether it works or not. He's wrestled incredibly well this year, as he split a pair of matches with Hayden Zillmer, who is ranked fourth, and he got caught in a pin by TJ Dudley. Outside of that, he lost to David Taylor who is not only ridiculously good, but also graduated two years ago. He can compete with anybody, and I think he has the firepower to win the Big Tens. If he does that, it gets him a top-5 seed, and although beating Gabe Dean won't be easy, he wrestled him tough last year, and if he is aggressive, anything is possible. The chance of him winning a National Title is definitely small, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't an All-American.

3. Brandon Sorensen - 149
Sorensen is ranked as high as any Hawkeye at #2 at his weight class, and had you asked me about this weight class earlier in the year, I may have put him at the top of this list. But since a torrid start, he has slowed down, and Zain Retherford has sped up, as he has absolutely plowed through everyone that has stood in his way. Sorensen, meanwhile, has wrestled closely with guys that he should be blowing out, and it's tough to believe he can come out on top. I don't think Retherford is unbeatable, but Sorensen has to wrestle with reckless abandon if he is going to do enough to come out on top. It's tough for me to predict that when I haven't seen it for months. Still, he's got a great shot of making it to the raised stage on Saturday night.

2. Cory Clark - 133
Last year, I said Cory Clark had the best chance of anybody to win a National Title at his lowest point in the season. I knew how dangerous he could be when he was wrestling well, and he almost proved me right by making the finals before losing to Cody Brewer who was on an absolute tear throughout that tournament. I don't think his chances have gotten any worse, but the guy at the top's chances have gotten better. Clark has only lost one match this year, in Sudden Victory to the guy currently ranked #2, and he did that less than two weeks after suffering an injury that made him pull out of the Midlands. Cody Brewer is still there, and Nahshon Garrett is ranked #1, but Clark is the first guy that I've listed that I wouldn't be surprised if he was a National Champion this year. Everyone up to this point needs some luck, but Clark is legit, and he could definitely take the title at 133.

1. Thomas Gilman - 125
Thomas Gilman, back with a vengeance this year. After he got upset in the semifinals by Zeke Moisey last year, he has come out this year and simply dominated all of his competition. The only reason he is still only ranked second is that the defending national champion, Nathan Tomasello has done just as well this year. They will likely get another match at the Big Ten Tournament, and that will decide who goes in at #1, but the real deal will be who is peaking at the NCAAs. There is some other tough competition in Joey Dance and Nico Megaludis, but Gilman has the firepower and the intensity to overwhelm anyone that he faces. I think this is the year he gets his asterisk.

As for the team side of things, well, it's going to be tough. Penn State is loaded, but some of their top ranked guys are susceptible to upsets. Cael Sanderson has done a phenomenal job of getting his guys to peak at the right time, and Iowa's results have been rather pedestrian in the tournament. They're going to have to outperform their seeds and get contributions from the entire team (minus 165). It's not likely, but it is possible. The Big Tens will be interesting, but the NCAAs will be epic.

I can't wait.