Sebastian Rivera Is What Wrestling Needs

Northwestern's Sebastian Rivera is the #1 ranked guy at 125 pounds this year. He has dominated most of his competition and decisively beat the former #1 ranked guy, Spencer Lee from Iowa so there is no doubt that he deserves his ranking. This past weekend, Northwestern took on the Michigan Wolverines, and Rivera could have made the easy choice and taken on a solid opponent in Drew Mattin. But Rivera didn't make the easy choice; he made the hard one.

A weight class above Rivera, at 133 pounds, Michigan has the #1 ranked wrestler in Stevan Micic, who has dominated everyone he has faced so far this season. Rivera passed on the chance to pad his record by taking out Mattin and instead decided to challenge himself and move up a weight class to take on Stevan Micic.

I love college wrestling, but even I have to admit that there are issues, and one of the most aggravating ones is that wrestlers "protect" their record by skipping dual meets against tough opponents. The most egregious example comes from the best wrestler on my favorite team, Spencer Lee of the Iowa Hawkeyes, who after losing to Rivera at Midlands did not wrestle in the Northwestern dual meet to delay the rematch. Now I don't want this to come across as me blaming Lee, as I think the decision almost certainly came from the coaching staff, but for a sport that needs to do anything it can to attract fans, it is very stupid that they go out of their way to avoid putting on the best matches.

But Rivera, possibly inspired by last year's decision of then #1 at 133 pounds, Seth Gross, going up to 141 to face off against #1, Bryce Meredith, decided to take on Micic to find out how good he really was. Before I spoil the match, here's a chance to watch it.

Rivera, making the tough decision to move up a weight class, was rewarded with an ass kicking from Stevan Micic. Micic controlled the match from the opening whistle and nearly got a major decision but had to settle for a 10-4 victory. Rivera's only points were off escapes, and he never came close to scoring on offense. He got handled by a clearly superior wrestler.

But that's okay. In fact, it's still great. Instead of asking, "What if Rivera moved up a weight class to take on Micic?" Now we know. Yeah, it didn't turn out how Rivera wanted, but he's in the same place he would have been had he taken the easy route and beaten Mattin. He'll still rightly be ranked #1 in the nation, but he provided the most exciting moment of the wrestling weekend by going up a weight class and challenging himself.

As much as I hate to admit it, the regular season really doesn't matter in college wrestling. I love watching it, and my heart believes it matters, but my brain knows that as long as you make the NCAA Tournament, nothing that happened before means anything. So it's on the coaches and the wrestlers to make the most exciting matches throughout the season. Let's hope more people follow the lead that Seth Gross and Sebastian Rivera have set forward, because setting up the most exciting matches shouldn't be such a surprising decision.

2018 NCAA Wrestling Tournament Predictions

It's the most wonderful time of the year when it comes to watching daytime sporting events during the work week. While most will be watching the first round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, I will be huddled next to as many screens as possible playing WatchESPN feeds of the NCAA Wrestling Tournament. In my hopes to get other people amped for wrestling, I'm going to preview each Iowa wrestler's chances and predict the All-Americans at each weight class.

125 - Spencer Lee - #3 Seed

As an Iowa fan, 125 is the most interesting weight class as it is Iowa's best chance at a national champion this year. Spencer Lee came in as the most blue chip of blue chip prospects that Iowa could hope for, and he has more than lived up to that hype as a true freshman. Lee has just two losses on the year, one to Ronnie Bresser, a good but not great wrestler, who beat Lee early on in the season, and a loss to Nathan Tomasello, a man who has already been a national champion, but also someone who Lee has beaten this year. Lee has gotten better as the year has gone on, and he's definitely peaking at the right time. He's earned a three seed in the tournament. In his first three matches, I don't just expect to win, I expect him to get bonus points in each of those matches, the toughest of which will be Nick Piccinnini who he only beat by decision earlier this year, but with his improved gas tank, yeah, let's move that up to a Major. The semifinals is going to be his toughest match, the rubber match against Nathan Tomasello, who will also definitely be there. Whoever wins that match will go onto win in the Finals. So can Lee pull it off? I'm an unabashed Hawkeye Homer, so yeah, Lee pulls it off, and caps off an incredible freshman season with a national title.

All-Americans

1. Spencer Lee

2. Darian Cruz

3. Nathan Tomasello

4. Sean Fausz

5. Sebastian Rivera

6. Nick Suriano

7. Taylor LaMont

8. Ronnie Bresser

133 - No Qualifier

Iowa did not qualify anyone at this weight class, which is unfortunate, as that will end Iowa's streak of having someone in the finals at this weight class for the last five consecutive years. Even sadder is that the #1 ranked guy at this weight class, Seth Gross, spent a year at Iowa before some legal troubles sparked his transfer to South Dakota State. Still, I'm going to pick an upset in the finals, because Stevan Micic from Michigan has been wrestling out of his mind late in the season, and I just can't see anybody stopping that momentum from rolling to a national title.

All-Americans

1. Stevan Micic

2. Seth Gross

3. Kaid Brock

4. Austin DeSanto

5. Scott Parker

6. John Erneste

7. Luke Pletcher

8. Josh Terao

141 - Vince Turk - Unseeded

Vince Turk may be the most fascinating wrestler on the Iowa team. He had a lot of hype going into last season before tearing his ACL right at the beginning of the season. This year, there was less hype, but he won out in some tough wrestle-offs to take the starting spot. I had hopes that he could make a positive impact on the lineup. Then he went out and wrestled like crap. Carter Happel nearly took the starting spot, but then Turk got another chance and he just started letting loose. He was uber-aggressive, and he was causing fits for people. His defense seemed nearly non-existent, but he was going for so much offense that decisions were going in his favor, and the matches were all exciting as hell. His only losses at the Big Ten Tournament were to Joey McKenna and Nick Lee, the fourth and eighth ranked wrestlers at 141. I really like Turk, but this weight class is STACKED. The depth is the best of any weight class, and although I think Turk gets some wins, I can't quite see him making it to All-American status.

All-Americans

1. Yianni Diakomihalis

2. Bryce Meredith

3. Dean Heil

4. Joey McKenna

5. Jaydin Eierman

6. Kevin Jack

7. Michael Carr

8. Mason Smith

149 - Brandon Sorensen - #2 Seed

Sorensen is Iowa's highest seeded wrestler, but he does not have the best chances of winning a National Championship, due to the existence of Zain Retherford, an absolute monster who will be closing in on his third national title this year. Sorensen is great, but Retherford is transcendent, and although Sorensen should make the finals, he has never beaten Retherford, and I just can't see that changing on Saturday night.

All-Americans

1. Zain Retherford

2. Brandon Sorensen

3. Ryan Deakin

4. Grant Leeth

5. Justin Oliver

6. Troy Heilmann

7. Ke-Shawn Hayes

8. Jason Tsirtsis

157 - Michael Kemerer - #6 Seed

Let's just get this out of the way: Michael Kemerer got totally screwed on seeding. That is not just Iowa homerism in me either, as everyone seems to agree. Yes, he got caught and pinned against Micah Jordan in the semifinals. That's bad, but that also only made Jordan 1-1 against him. Kemerer then forfeited out of the tournament, which the NCAA seeding committee definitely punished this year. Still, Jason Nolf, whose resume this year is nearly identical to Kemerer's, injury defaulted a round earlier than Kemerer and managed the #3 seed. Somehow, Kemerer fell to sixth despite having a convincing win over the #4 seed, Josh Shields earlier this year. It does not make sense, and it means that Kemerer will have to go up against Jason Nolf in the quarterfinals. Nolf was hurt earlier this year but is at least close to back to normal as he was fairly impressive in his two wins in the Big Ten Tournament. It should never happen that whoever wins a quarterfinal matchup is the favorite to win the whole thing, but here we are, and if these guys are near 100%, the winner is going to go on to win the National Title. I want to pick Kemerer so bad, but until I see someone actually beat Jason Nolf, I can't pick against him. I don't see Kemerer losing to anybody else in this tournament.

All-Americans

1. Jason Nolf

2. Hayden Hidlay

3. Michael Kemerer

4. Alec Pantaleo

5. Josh Shields

6. Micah Jordan

7. Joseph Lavallee

8. Andrew Crone

165 - Alex Marinelli - #5 Seed

Well, where Kemerer got screwed on seeding, Marinelli seemed to get a fairly generous draw. He should be able to handle his first two opponents with limited worries before facing Chad Walsh of Rider. Although Walsh has an impressive 24-1 record, it was done against fairly weak opposition. His best win is against #9 seed, Chance Marsteller, who also beat Walsh once. I think Marinelli can get that one, although I can't see him getting by Martinez in the semifinals. At that point, his NCAA Tournament would be at least as good as his sixth place finish at the Big Tens, so I think Hawkeyes fans should be pleased with Marinelli's performance.

All-Americans

1. Isaiah Martinez

2. Logan Massa

3. Vincenzo Joseph

4. David McFadden

5. Alex Marinelli

6. Chance Marsteller

7. Anthony Valencia

8. Richie Lewis

174 - Joey Gunther - Unseeded

Gunther had a solid year bumping up to 174 this season, but it's tough to see him making much of an impact. I could see him getting a couple wins, but nothing more than that as I don't think he will be near competing for All-American status. This weight class is fascinating as it has three undefeated wrestlers in Zahid Valencia, Mark Hall, and Daniel Lewis. I think those top two guys are clearly better than the rest, but Daniel Lewis may surprise me. He's been a bonus point machine, but it has been against a weak schedule so it's tough to say how good he is at 174. I'm not buying what he's selling though.

All-Americans

1. Zahid Valencia

2. Mark Hall

3. Bo Jordan

4. Daniel Lewis

5. Myles Amine

6. Jaeden Bernstein

7. Ethan Ramos

8. Taylor Lujan

184 - Mitch Bowman - Unseeded

Bowman is a solid wrestler for the Hawkeyes, but there is ntohing about him that really stands out. Sometimes, he's relentless; other times, he gets stuck on the mat with no hope of getting up. Sometimes he'll be ultra aggressive; other times, he will barely go for a shot. Even when he's on, it's not the most impressive thing in the world. If he gets a couple wins, it will be a nice tournament for him, but he probably has the best chance of not scoring any team points for the Hawkeyes, so no, I do not see him becoming an All-American. At the top of the bracket, you've got Bo Nickal. Abounader could give him some troubles, but Bo Nickal is really freaking good, so I've got to pick him at this weight class.

All-Americans

1. Bo Nickal

2. Myles Martin

3. Pete Renda

4. Dominic Abounader

5. Emory Parker

6. Maxwell Dean

7. Ryan Preisch

8. Drew Foster

197 - Cash Wilcke - #14 Seed

Cash Wilcke made it to the Round of 12 last year, and although I love Cash Wilcke, I kind of saw that as his ceiling again this year. Many probably thought I was pretty dumb when he was undefeated and ranked fifth in the nation. I would have been so happy to be dumb about that, but instead, I was correct, and he basically fell apart during the second half of the season. He can be competitive against all but the very best in this division, but it is going to take him squeaking out a whole lot of wins for him to make it to All-American status. I predict the same result as last year, where he makes the Round of 12, just barely falling short of AA. Oh, and this weight class is a total clusterfuck, and I have no idea what is going to happen. Random predictions below.

All-Americans

1. Kollin Moore

2. Jared Haught

3. Ben Darmstadt

4. Michael Machiavello

5. Nate Rotert

6. Preston Weigel

7. William Miklus

8. Shakur Rasheed

Heavyweight - Sam Stoll - #5 Seed

Sam Stoll is right where he should be in the seeds. If he wrestles like he should, he will cruise into the quarterfinals against Duke's Jacob Kasper. I don't love Stoll's chances in that match, but I wouldn't count him out either. Even if he does win that match, he's not getting by America's greatest living athlete, Kyle Snyder, so don't expect to see him wrestling Saturday night. But for the first time, Stoll is actually healthy at the NCAA Tournament, and I think he does enough to become an All-American. It's going to be Snyder and Coon in the finals, and although they have split their first two matches this year, there is no way I am going to pick against Snyder. 

All-Americans

1. Kyle Snyder

2. Adam Coon

3. Jacob Kasper

4. Sam Stoll

5. Tanner Hall

6. Derek White

7. Nick Nevills

8. Michael Boykin

And that wraps up my selections for the tournament. Iowa is definitely not winning a team title this year, but with Lee, Sorensen, and Kemerer, they have three guys who have the potential to be competing on Saturday night. And seriously, take a break from college basketball and at least tune in on Saturday night, it really is one of the most fun sporting events of the year.

Each Iowa Hawkeyes Wrestler's Chance at a National Title in 2017

The wrestling season is sadly winding down. All that is left is the National Duals, Conference Tournaments, and the NCAA Tournament. Even as an eternal optimist for the Iowa Hawkeyes, their chances at winning the team national title are incredibly slim. It is looking like they can qualify eight weights, with 197 and Heavyweight unlikely to make the cut. That alone puts them in a pretty deep hole, and two of their other qualifiers are unranked, so those guys putting up major points seems unlikely. Still, crazy things can happen in wrestling, so let's look at all ten starter's chances at winning a National Title this season.

10. Heavyweight - Steven Holloway
When Sam Stoll reinjured his knee, it basically ended Iowa's hopes for a team National Title. If healthy, he's a likely All-American and those missed points are tough to make up. Holloway is stepping in and doing his best. Unfortunately, he's small for the weight class and not skilled enough to make up for the size discrepancy. He's kept matches close outside of when wrestling the top guys at the weight, but he consistently falls short of pulling off the victories. It's not gonna happen.

9. 197 - Cash Wilcke
Unfortunately, the guy with the best name on the team probably doesn't have the best chances at making a dent at the NCAA Tournament. Wilcke is another guy that would probably be better suited at a lower weight class. He is doing a serviceable job as he has only been on the losing end of one major decision this year. He's kept matches close but just hasn't had quite the firepower to get things done. It wouldn't be totally shocking if he put together a strong Big Ten performance to qualify for the NCAAs, but even if he makes it, he will not be favored in any of his matches once he gets there. The good news is there will be a lot of turnover at 184 after this year (including his teammate Sammy Brooks), and it will be interesting to see what kind of damage he can do at his more natural weight.

8. 165 - Joey Gunther
Gunther has done enough this year. First, he did enough at 165 where Brands didn't feel like it was worth burning Alex Marinelli's redshirt for this season. He's continued to do enough by beating guys he should beat at 165 in close matches and even pulled off a good win against Nick Wanzek of Minnesota. With that, he's probably done enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament although it's not yet a guarantee. Gunther will reliably give you seven strong minutes out there. I think he qualifies, but even though he's gotten stronger as the year has gone on, I'd be pretty surprised if he got more than a win or two at Nationals.

7. 141 - Topher Carton
Carton may be Iowa's most improved wrestler as this season has gone on. Kevin Jack and Dean Heil are the only two guys who have definitively beaten him, and even those were just regular decisions. Otherwise, he has given guys fits, and even though he's still working on coming out on top, he's the type of guy who could pull off a big upset at the NCAAs. Usually a guy from Iowa can't sneak up at a national tournament, but Carton could prove to be the exception to that rule. 141 is a deep weight class, so there are going to be nothing but tough matches, but Carton has shown enough that he might be able to pull off some upsets and make some noise. It's still not likely, but it wouldn't totally shock me to see him in the Round of 12.

6. 174 - Alex Meyer
Now we get into the range of returning All-Americans. Meyer finished seventh last season and looked to have the opportunity to build on that as his weight class actually lost some of its heaviest hitters. Instead, he's had some rather disappointing performances in toss-up matches this year. Of course, he also beat Penn State Super Freshman, Mark Hall, a guy who has only lost one other time this year and has bonus points in 70% of his matches. Basically, it is impossible to know what you are going to get out of Alex Meyer. Nobody will blow him out, but he has the ability to beat and lose to anybody. If he's aggressive and pushing the pace, he could make a serious run, but if he is passive and on the defensive, it's probably not going to be a long tournament for him. Since I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to Iowa wrestling, I say he becomes a two-time All-American, although I have trouble seeing him advance more than a spot or two from last year's finish.

5. 184 - Sammy Brooks
Another seventh place finisher last year, I would love to put Brooks higher on this list, but there is a bit too much volatility in Brooks's outcomes for me to reasonably put him higher on this list. He only has two losses this season, one to Nate Jackson, which he avenged later in that same Midlands tournament, and the other to Bo Nickal, where he showed some hesitation on a good shot and got caught in a weird spot and pinned. I'm not really concerned about either of those outcomes. Bo Nickal is a monster offensively, but guys have shown that he can be scored on with a good pace. There is also two-time defending National Champion, Gabe Dean, who has seemed to take his wrestling to another level this season. Brooks wrestled him close a couple years ago, and that's why I believe he could beat anybody. I'd be shocked if Brooks didn't finish as a two-time All-American, and I think he could cause some damage if he gets the right matchups and stays aggressive in his matches. I think the likely outcome is the 3-5 range, but if don't be surprised if he's wrestling on Saturday night. Never doubt the mullet.

4. 157 - Michael Kemerer
Kemerer has exceeded all expectations in his first year wrestling for the Hawkeyes. I mean, I was incredibly excited about him last year, but he's even outdone my wildest expectations for him this year. He moved up a weight class this year and still has stormed through absolutely everybody except for #1 ranked, Jason Nolf. He's ranked second currently, and he will be expected to make the finals of the NCAAs. The reason he's only fourth on this list is partially due to the strong performances of the top three guys and partially because Nolf seemed to overwhelm him in their first match. I think Kemerer has the ability to close the gap on Nolf in the next month, but I have a real hard time seeing him overtake the top guy at that weight. Still, it's gonna be a ton of fun watching him close out his Freshman season.

3. 149 - Brandon Sorensen
Sorensen is in a similar boat as Kemerer, as he can pretty clearly beat anyone but the top guy at this weight, although Sorensen did lose by riding time in a match against Anthony Collica at Oklahoma State. Still, if Sorensen gets the second or third seed, I think he'll be favored to make it to the Finals. Last year, top seeded Zain Retherford dominated Sorensen in their two matches,as in two matches, Sorensen managed only a single escape point. But this year, he came out and wrestled his ass off against Retherford in one of the most exciting matches of the year. He did end up losing OT, but he showed that he can compete with Zain Train, who, outside of that match, has been the most dominant wrestler at any weight class in college wrestling. Do I think Sorensen will beat him? No, I don't think he will, but I also didn't think he'd be as close as he was earlier this season. I'm just really hoping that he doesn't have to worry about that match until the Finals.

2. 133 - Cory Clark
Yes, I know Clark got upset this past weekend against Nebraska, but I still believe in him. Cory Clark has finished second the last two years and has the chance to become a four-time All-American this year. Still, anything less than a Championship is going to be a disappointment for Clark's Hawkeye career. He has been so close for so long that Iowa fans are just waiting for him to get over the hump. Of course, when it finally looked like he would be the number one guy, favored to take it all, he suffered a shoulder injury, and although he's looked strong in his matches, he hasn't quite looked as dominant as he has in the past. 133 is a tough weight class, but there are no unbeatable monsters at this weight. There are probably five guys who could go on a run and win the thing with Tomasello (Ohio State), Brock (Oklahoma State), Richards (Illinois, and Gross (South Dakota State after transferring from Iowa). Clark's only other loss this season was to Brock, and it was a close match where Clark probably wasn't 100%. The season slows down over this next month, so it should give Clark an opportunity to rest and hopefully get close to 100%. The goal for the Big Ten Tournament should be to do enough to be ranked in the top three. At that point, you only have to take out two of the top guys instead of three of them. A healthy Clark wins the National Title this year. A Clark with a shoulder injury makes that proposition more dicey, but I still believe he can string things together and make a run.

1. 125 - Thomas Gilman
Gilman is the man at 125. He has gotten bonus points in all but three of his matches, once against second-ranked, Nick Suriano, once against Tim Lambert, who is another top five guy, and once against Josh Terao, who is just as funky as his brother who was a former All-American. Oh, yeah, there was that other match where Gilman got caught and was down 8-0 with his opponent having nearly four minutes of riding time, but Gilman started pouring on takedowns in the third period, and then decided to turn him over and get the pin. This was against the sixth-ranked wrestler in the nation, which, yeah, you shouldn't be able to do things like that to the sixth-ranked wrestler in the nation. Suriano and Joey Dance of Virginia Tech are both tough, but ain't nobody beating Gilman this year. Everything is coming together, and as long as he stays healthy over the next month, he's going to finally get an asterisk next to his name.

Overall, Iowa has a solid shot at four guys wrestling on Saturday night for the Finals. In one of those four matches, Iowa will have the favorite, they might have the favorite at another and would be heavy underdogs in the other two. Still, every year the NCAA surprises us. Iowa hasn't had an NCAA Tournament where they really peaked and exceeded expectations in quite a few years, so maybe this is the year that they shock the wrestling world. Penn State's going to win another National Title, aren't they? God damnit.

Folkstyle Is Better Than Freestyle Wrestling

The US Olympic Trials were held this past weekend, where men's and women's freestyle and Greco were decided on who would represent the US in the Olympics (if the US qualifies, as only half of the weight classes had been qualified so far). There were some absolutely incredible matches, and it was a ton of fun to watch. However, there were also some frustrating matches where when the match was over, you didn't really feel like the better wrestler won the match. That is the biggest issue I have with freestyle, and it's why my preference is still folkstyle (the type of wrestling you see in college (and basically all levels before that as well)).

My biggest issue with freestyle is exposing the shoulders to the mat. If you expose an opponent's shoulders to the mat, even if they are nowhere near those shoulders being pinned, you get two points. I get very frustrated when I see a guy go for a takedown, and the opponent reaches through his crotch, flips him upside down for a second and gets two points while the guy who initiated the action is still looking to score off that move. And yes, maybe it is extra frustrating because this is how every American loses in international competition.

But I see wrestling as the physical domination of your opponent. The ultimate goal is to pin your opponent's shoulders to the mat, and I really don't think anything that does not get you closer to that goal should be rewarded. Nobody gets pinned off of a leg lace, but Jordan Burroughs scored 8 points in about two seconds doing that to win his Olympic spot against Andrew Howe. And here's the thing, it was fun to watch, but I just feel that the points awarded far outweigh what Burroughs was actually accomplishing.

There are issues with folkstyle wrestling. Mat work can be incredibly boring, and I scream at my television anytime I see a top guy throw in a leg, the bottom guy stands up, and the ref just resets the guy to stay on the bottom with no stall call. But I still see the essence of dominating your opponent leads to victory. There are some exceptions where the guy with the takedown loses, but it's pretty rare, and the NCAA is making steps towards preventing that.

And maybe this is all just because I’m bitter about Brent Metcalf losing. He gave up two points when he shot in for a takedown, and basically did a one man gator roll to escape from a bad position. Molinaro had good defense, but he didn’t initiate any real action. Still, he got two points for a back exposure and won the 3-3 match on criteria. Now I’m not going to count out Metcalf for the 2020 Olympics, but I think this was his best shot to make it (well, 2012 actually may have been better). Zain Retherford has shown massive improvement over the last couple years, and giving him four more years, two of which he will completely be focused on freestyle make him the early favorite at that weight (Stieber would be an ideal guy at 61 kg, but that’s unfortunately no longer an Olympic weight, but hopefully they bring it back). Metcalf will go down as one of the greatest American wrestler to never make an Olympic team.

What were we talking about again?

Oh, yeah, folkstyle and freestyle. My big issue with freestyle is that you can beat an opponent without trying to pin their shoulders to the mat. Just turning a guy is more flash than substance (and I 100% understand that it is incredibly difficult to turn someone who does not want to be turned). And I’m even down for an exposure on a takedown attempt getting an extra two points, because it takes away a huge defensive maneuver for the guy being taken down, so it does lead to more action on the feet. And since turns are impressive, I’d rather just see a turn getting an extra two points, and then you stand them back up instead of racking up points off of the turns. I’d love folkstyle to look into the same thing to help with their issues of boring matches where guys just rack up riding time.

Overall, I just want to see the best wrestler win in an action-packed match. Both freestyle and folkstyle are great. I’ll admit that freestyle has more action, but folkstyle does a better job of proving who is the better wrestler, and that’s why I still prefer it to the Olympic style.