Always Draft A Quarterback

If you do not have a good quarterback, you should always draft a quarterback, and you should try to do it as early in the draft as possible. It is better to draft a bad quarterback than to go with another position, because you need a quarterback. Everybody is terrified of drafting the next Ryan Leaf, but when it comes to building a roster, I would rather have the boom or bust players than wallow away in mediocrity.

You will know that a quarterback is not going to work out within two years. That means you are only ignoring that position for one year.

Think about the Texans. They drafted Jadeveon Clowney, and even had Clowney been what was expected of him, they would have snuck in the playoffs and been ousted in the first round as they simply didn't have the quarterback necessary to be a threat. Now that they are a good, but not great team, it is going to be much more difficult to find their answer at the quarterback position.

Hell, you could even take the Rams. They drafted Aaron Donald who was the best defensive rookie this year, and maybe the best rookie overall (I know Odell Beckham Jr. was a rookie, but Aaron Donald really was that good), but even with their defensive line playing like the best unit in the league down the stretch, what is their ceiling with their current quarterback situation?

Now, obviously the Donald pick worked out, but wouldn't it have helped to take a chance on a guy in round two? Jimmy Garoppolo is the type of high-risk, high-reward player that would have been worth the Rams taking a chance on in the second round? While admitting that I was higher on Garoppolo than most, I still think he would have been fairly rough this year, but that experience could have helped make him the quarterback they needed in 2015 and beyond. If he showed to be truly awful, you can still give him another year to prove himself while taking a chance on a mid-round guy like Shane Carden of East Carolina.

Although I advocate taking a quarterback as early as possible, there are a few exceptions as Russell Wilson fell to the third round, Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent (although the Cowboys went above and beyond with their signing bonus to make sure he went to Dallas), and Tom Brady famously fell to the sixth. Tom Brady is the ultimate outlier, so expecting your team to be that brilliant lucky is delusional. Tony Romo came out in 2003, and the NFL has gotten SOOOOO much better at recognizing talent from smaller schools that he would likely have been at least picked in the top three rounds if he came out today (just look at Jimmy Garoppolo for proof). Wilson is the best example, as he is the most recent, but the Seahawks lucked out that the Eagles didn't trade up to ensure that they were able to draft him, as the Eagles and Russell Wilson were in love with each other going into the draft (Daniel Jeremiah, who was a scout for the Eagles at the time, mentioned that Wilson would text him about how excited he was for the Eagles to draft him so he could bring a Super Bowl title to Philadelphia).

But looking at all the good teams from the last few years, nearly every one of them drafted their starting quarterback.  Nobody is trading away good quarterbacks, so a team has to wait for the perfect storm to hope the team lets a good quarterback walk away in free agency. Those outliers are Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Brees was a late bloomer (so the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers, making Brees obsolete) coming off of a major shoulder surgery. Manning had a serious neck injury where people thought that he would never regain enough arm strength to be effective and that he may just be one weird hit away from retirement. Even with the Broncos signing Manning, they still drafted a quarterback in the second round.

Yes, a team can hope a quarterback falls in their lap in free agency, but hope is not a plan. Scouting a quarterback and finding ways that you can accentuate his positives while minimizing the negatives is a far more likely path to success.

With all that being said, it is much easier to take quarterbacks in the draft in theory than it is to actually go through that plan in practice. General managers can't afford to whiff on a quarterback, because it is such an important decision. No decision will get scrutinized more, and the GM will primarily be judged off that single decision, so if it doesn't work out, he's likely going to lose his job. That is why everybody has to be on board with the plan, so a general manager can take the risks necessary to pursue greatness as opposed to goodness.

Everybody talks about what a bust Ryan Leaf was, but was it really a bust for the Chargers? His incompetence led them to LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. They took one step back to take one giant leap forward. If that's what a bust looks like, then sign me up.

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo is a guy who has been getting more and more hype as the season closed and he performed well at both the East-West Shrine Game and Senior Bowl. I love college football, but I will admit that I have never seen a second of Eastern Illinois in my entire life. Usually I can find some game tape cut up of performances, but I wasn't able to get that same experience for Garoppolo. Instead, I sifted through highlight videos to try to see what he does well and what he can work on. I found a highlight against Illinois State and all the big plays from his game against Northern Illinois.

The first thing that stood out about Garoppolo is his deep accuracy. He throws a nice deep ball as he shows on back-to-back plays here.

His receiver gets a little separation, and he only has to slightly slow down for the ball, but overall, this is an impressive throw from Garoppolo.The second ball is not as deep, but it's still a ball down the field that he throws accurately.

Along those same lines, this is an even more impressive deep ball.

He recognizes the pressure, gets rid of the ball quickly, and still hits his receiver in stride for an easy touchdown. Deep ball accuracy is something that nearly every college quarterback struggles with, so to see this sort of accuracy is very impressive.

His accuracy is not something that he only possesses on deep balls as it carries over to the short and intermediate routes as well. He throws a nice slant here that leads his receiver perfectly.

Even with the play action, he gets it out quick enough where his receiver can tuck before getting destroyed by the safety over the middle.

From what I have seen, he's not going to wow anybody with his arm strength, but it looks sufficient to be successful at the next level. He's not firing bullets, but he has zip on the ball, and it looks good on film.

One thing that I have to bring up when watching all of these highlights is that it is clear that this is a lower level of football. In nearly every player, they are either noticeably smaller or slower than their counterparts at the FBS level. A lot of times, they are both smaller and slower. So although Garoppolo throwing for 480 yards and seven touchdowns is impressive, the level of competition takes a little of the shine off those numbers.

On the downside, he's not great with pressure.

The reverse bailing out method to deal with pressure is a great way to lose a lot of yards, and that is what happens here. Bailing out on the pocket and turning your back to the line of scrimmage rarely works out well, and it is not a good habit to start.

Along with his problems with pressure, he is not great at reading the field when his first option is not open. He recognizes that there is a blitz coming, but his offensive line actually picks it up well. Still, he panics and barely looks to his left before throwing the ball.

Had he taken a second to read the defense to that side, he would not have thrown that ball as the cornerback has underneath coverage and the safety is over the top. Instead, he badly underthrows the ball which leads to an easy interception for Northern Illinois.

Reading the defense is a concern, but it is a skill that he has shown that he can do. This is a really nice play from him and another beautiful deep ball.

This is an essential skill to being a successful quarterback, so even though he may not have shown it consistently, even seeing flashes gives me hope that it is a skill he can develop in the future.

This is my favorite throw that I saw of his. He definitely has the best fade ball out of all of the prospects, and I would honestly put his touch on the fade route up against any pro quarterback. It doesn't get better than this.

That is just unfair. The defender has good coverage, but the ball is placed perfectly, and there is nothing he can do. Just a beautiful throw.

I really like Jimmy Garoppolo, but to be totally honest, this is the least comfortable I feel about grading any quarterback. There just wasn't a lot to go off of that was readily available to me. Still, there are a lot of positives in his game. He is definitely the most accurate deep passer that I have seen so far and may be the most accurate quarterback overall. Still, everything at the FCS level is a step slower, and that does discount some of what he is able to do. How much is the big question. He really struggled with pressure, but some of those times, his offensive line just got completely blown up by Northern Illinois, and there's not much any quarterback could have done in those situations. His ability to read defenses is inconsistent, and overall, I would put it as a weakness for him currently. Those are my big concerns. But I keep coming back to that accuracy and some of the best fade throws that I have seen from any quarterback. Drafting any quarterback is a gamble as it is a huge step up from college football to the NFL. Drafting someone from the FCS increases that risk. Still, I see the tools to be successful, and that accuracy is attractive enough that I would put him ahead of Zach Mettenberger on my draft board, although I still see a large gap between him and Blake Bortles.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida
3. Jimmy Garoppolo - Eastern Illinois
4. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State
5. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech
6. Brett Smith - Wyoming
7. Aaron Murray - Georgia