Showing posts with label Justin Upton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Upton. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - AL Central

Although baseball season is still a few weeks away, fantasy baseball season is here as draft rooms are opening and people are spending fake auction dollars on their favorite players. Everybody knows about the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world, so what you need to do stand out is find those hidden gems on each roster to propel yourself to fantasy greatness. I am going to go through each MLB roster to find at least one underrated player who will have you looking like a genius at the end of the season.

Today, we start the series with an oft-forgotten division, the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox - Tim Anderson
Tim Anderson had a really nice rookie year for any position but especially for a shortstop. He was a fairly well thought of prospect, and still, he barely makes ESPN's top 300 and is only ranked the 24th best shortstop. Now, yes, his BABIP was unsustainable as that .375 number is probably not going to hold up, but with his speed and batted ball profile, it is likely to remain above average. There's also a good chance that he can reduce his K% to make more contact meaning the BABIP won't have to remain quite as hight. On top of this, he managed 49 stolen bases in AA in 2015, and I think he could see a decent spike in those stolen base numbers this year. There is a lot of depth at shortstop this year, and outside of the top 5 (Machado, Correa, Seager, Lindor, Bogaerts), are you totally confident that any of them will definitely outproduce Anderson? I'm not, and considering where he's ranked, he'll make an excellent late-round addition.

Cleveland Indians - Cody Allen
Poor Cody Allen. He is a guy who is underestimated not by anything that he did, but because his teammate is Andrew Miller, possibly the most dominant reliever in all of baseball. Since most teams use their most dominant reliever in the closer role, everyone goes into this season that Allen will lose his job. Is it possible? Of course, but Allen has been a pretty darn good reliever these last few years, and one of Miller's greatest attributes is his versatility. Terry Francona is going to do everything eh can to keep Allen in the closer role, and he's likely to produce top-10 results with top-5 upside while currently only ranked as the 19th best relief pitcher. Drafting closers is rarely sexy, but it can still be valuable.

Detroit Tigers - Justin Upton
If I can justify selecting a brother (non-racist way), I'm going to do it. My fascination with drafting brothers in fantasy is a long and sordid affair that almost never works out for me. It started with the Giles brothers, drifted to the Drews, and finally made it to the Uptons. Despite it usually doing me more harm than good, I still always enjoy my experience. But I do believe this is a good year to buy in on Upton. Although he started off poorly for the Tigers, he lowered his strikeout rate and hit 22 home runs in 68 games during the second half last year. I think he's far closer to that second half player for the whole season this year. Although he's ranked in the 60s, I think he can produce at least that if not be up in the top-40 at the end of the year.

Kansas City Royals - Jorge Soler
Joe Maddon said he was Vladimir Guerrero with better plate discipline. That comment will never die in my head, and that means I will end up with Jorge Soler for the next ten years in fantasy baseball by drafting him 100 spots before anyone else. I'm kind of serious. He's ranked 260 right now. I will be at least considering him at 160. Dominant relievers are more highly valued than ever before, and the Royals were happy to trade one of the most dominant relievers for Jorge Soler. Clearly, they believe in him; clearly, I believe in him, and, guys...VLAD GUERRERO WITH BETTER PLATE DISCIPLINE.

Minnesota Twins - Byron Buxton
I'll admit this pick could be a year too early, but Buxton still gives plenty to dream on. Even though Buxton was drafted in 2012, he has far less minor league experience than other people from that draft as injuries have cut short a lot of his time, and he had that compounded by being brought up to the major leagues before he was ready. Still, he struggled in the majors, got sent down, raked in AAA, and showed improvement when he got called back up. It wasn't huge, but he hit some more homers, doubled his walk rate, and slightly improved on the strikeouts. If he can continue to lower that strikeout percentage, it is going to improve every aspect of his game, as just putting the ball in play makes him dangerous with his speed. If the power continues to blossom, you're looking at a true five-tool player. I'm not sure if that's going to happen, especially in 2017, but there were enough positive signs to make him worth the risk late in the draft.

Monday, October 20, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Eight

And so we have finally made it to the final part of our journey. For a quick review of where we have been:

For a review of where we have been so far:

Part One - The Draft
Part Two - The Start of the Season
Part Three - Becoming a Seller
Part Four - The Rebuild
Part Five - The Trade Deadline
Part Six - The Stretch Run

Part Seven - The Playoffs

At this point, there is nothing to be done but to review the performance. Since I feel like the absolute maximum anyone could write about their fantasy team is seven parts, I have made this eighth part my longest part of the story. First off, here is the team I started with and what happened to each player.

14 Ryan Braun, Mil OF - Traded
23 Evan Longoria, TB 3B - Traded
26 Joey Votto, Cin 1B - Released
38 Justin Upton, Atl OF  
54 Zack Greinke, LAD SP - Traded
78 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY SP - Traded
83 Wilin Rosario, Col C 
91 Matt Cain, SF SP - Released
98 Cole Hamels, Phi SP  
115 Chase Utley, Phi 2B  
126 Jose Abreu, CWS 1B  
134 Jedd Gyorko, SD 2B  
139 Danny Salazar, Cle SP - Released but then added again.
146 B.J. Upton, Atl OF  
150 David Robertson, NYY RP  
163 Leonys Martin, Tex OF  
179 Koji Uehara, Bos RP - Traded
187 Chris Tillman, Bal SP - Released
198 Chris Carter, Hou 1B  
235 Jose Veras, Hou RP - Released
246 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B - Released
259 Ubaldo Jimenez, Bal SP - Released
270 Josh Johnson, SD SP - Released
283 Edwin Jackson, ChC SP - Released
294 Derek Jeter, NYY SS - Released

Now what my team ended up at and how I was able to acquire all of them:

Wilin Rosario, Col C - Draft
Chris Carter, Hou 1B - Draft
Chase Utley, Phi 2B - Draft
Pablo Sandoval, SF 3B - Trade
J.J. Hardy, Bal SS - Trade
Jedd Gyorko, SD 2B - Draft
Jose Abreu, CWS 1B - Draft
B.J. Upton, Atl OF - Draft
Leonys Martin, Tex OF - Draft
Ben Revere, Phi OF - Free Agency
Gregory Polanco, Pit OF - Trade
Jorge Soler, ChC OF - Free Agency
Justin Upton, Atl OF - Draft
Eric Hosmer, KC 1B - Waivers
Sean Doolittle, Oak RP - Free Agency
Danny Salazar, Cle SP Draft/Free Agency
Kevin Quackenbush, SD RP - Free Agency
Cole Hamels, Phi SP - Draft
Alex Cobb, TB SP - Trade
David Robertson, NYY RP - Draft
Hector Rondon, ChC RP - Free Agency
Marcus Stroman, Tor RP - Free Agency
Jake Arrieta, ChC SP - Free Agency
Jake Odorizzi, TB SP - Free Agency
Justin Verlander, Det SP - Trade

Be honest, you're wondering how in the hell I came one Jordan Zimmermann no-hitter from getting a championship? I seriously don't know either. Chase Utley had the most at bats for my team, and that does not compare to the pitching fact of not having a single pitcher get me double digit wins this season. 

First off, I'm going to look at my active stats leaders to see who were my biggest contributors:

At Bats: 

1. Chase Utley - 589
2. Justin Upton - 566
3. Jose Abreu - 556
Yep, Chase Utley played the most for my team. He was totally fine. Luckily, the next two guys were pretty great. Oh, and if you're wondering why I didn't sell Justin Upton early on, it's because I can't split up the brothers. If I end up drafting Justin again next year, I will end up drafting BJ too, even though I know it is a terrible idea.

Runs:
1. Jose Abreu - 80
2. Justin Upton - 77
3. Chase Utley - 74
Yeah, so if you have the most at bats, you will likely be able to lead in things like runs. Jose Abreu is great. That will only become clearer as we go through the other categories.

Home Runs:
1. Jose Abreu - 36
2. Chris Carter - 34
3. Justin Upton - 29
Although I kept Chris Carter the entire year, it doesn't mean that I kept him in the lineup the entire year, so I missed out on a few of his homers. These home run numbers are actually pretty good, but it should be noted that the next most on my team was 12. So yeah, there was a slight dropoff after this point.

RBI:
1. Jose Abreu - 107
2. Justin Upton - 102
3. Chris Carter - 82
No surprises here after looking at the home run lead. Fun fact about my RBI list is that Ben Revere had over 400 at bats for my team and knocked in 19 runners, while Jorge Soler had 89 at bats and was able to knock in 20.

Stolen Bases:
1. Ben Revere - 34
2. Leonys Martin - 30
3. BJ Upton - 20
See? BJ Upton is not completely useless; he is only very useless.

Batting Average:
Josmil Pinto - .400
Jose Abreu - .317
Ben Revere - .313
I had Josmil Pinto for eight games early on in the season, and it was probably his best eight game stretch of the entire year. Thanks, Josmil. We couldn't have made it without you. Another fun fact is that Ryan Braun hit .309 for my team and ended up with a .266 average. Apparently his new team had a toxic clubhouse.

Obviously, my hitting was not great, but let's look at my pitching leaders, because I must have done something right there.

Innings Pitched:
1. Cole Hamels - 191.1
2. Nate Eovaldi - 180.1
3. Marcus Storman - 115.1
We were not able to manage a 200 inning pitcher. The other thing that jumps out is that there is a big dropoff after those top two pitchers as there was a lot of upheaval on the pitching side. By the end, my pitching was strong, but early on, I had a lot of jabronies taking the mound for my team.

Strikeouts:
1. Cole Hamels - 185
2. Nate Eovaldi - 126
3. Jake Arrieta - 118
Despite pitching 73 more innings, Nate Eovaldi was only able to beat Jake Arrieta by eight strikeouts. Marcus Stroman and Danny Salazar were he only other two guys to hit triple digits.

Wins:
1. Cole Hamels - 9
1. Marcus Stroman - 9
3. Jake Arrieta - 8
3. Masahiro Tanaka - 8
Cole Hamels pitched an entire year with a 2.49 ERA and only managed nine wins. The Phillies clearly hate him and should trade him to the Cubs for Chris Coghlan. Also notable is that Tanaka spent two months on my team and nearly led everyone in Wins. Thanks for all of your help, Masahiro.

Saves:
1. David Robertson - 37
2. Hector Rondon - 26
3. Sean Doolittle - 16
No surprise here, as Robertson was the only closer that was on my roster the entire year. Rondon and Doolittle were both valuable additions.

ERA:
1. Kevin Quackenbush - 0.00
2. Koji Uehara - 0.76
3. Jonathan Broxton - 1.13
4. Masahiro Tanaka - 2.06
5. Alex Cobb - 2.15
Kevin Quackenbush was my final addition of the season, and he never gave up a run in three innings, so nice job there, Kevin. Koji  pitched 23.2 of dominant baseball before getting traded, and Broxton proved very valuable before Aroldis Chapman came back and took over the Closer role. I expanded this list to five to include Masahiro Tanaka who was so much fun to own early on this year and Alex Cobb who just dominated throughout the second half of the season.

WHIP:
1. Sean Doolittle - 0.71
2. Jaime Garcia - 0.71
3. Koji Uehara - 0.80
4. Jake Arrieta - 0.87
Jaime Garcia only lasted one start with my team before being traded, but at least he had a great WHIP in that game. Also, I expanded this field to show just how great Jake Arrieta was. He was really great. I'm already sad that I likely will not have him next year.

Looking through my leaders, it is pretty clear that Jose Abreu was my most valuable player, while Cole Hamels was probably my most valuable pitcher. Instead, let's end this with the guys that buried my team throughout the year with the 20 least valuable players that I had on my team throughout this season.

20. Joey Votto - He hit .255 with 6 home runs, and since I already had him at first base, I took Matt Cain instead of Anthony Rizzo.

19. Edwin Jackson - Jackson had a 5.02 ERA, a super high WHIP and only one win. Luckily, I got him on a relative hot streak, since his overall numbers ended up much worse.

18. Nate Eovaldi - Overall, he was only below average, but he managed to stay on my team from his first start right up until the final week of the season. He managed to be just good enough to not be dropped. Also, living in Florida throughout the season, I was able to watch him anytime I wanted, and every time I watched, he was just awful. Maybe it's my fault.

17. BJ Upton - The only guy on this list that managed to stay on my team for the entire season. He only managed 12 home runs while hitting .206. Luckily, he got 20 stolen bases, which isn't great, but it is something positive and enough to keep him low on this list.

16. Drew Hutchison - He came on my team at the right time, as it took a lot for somebody to get dropped, as I just didn't have the moves to get rid of guys. Also, he struck people out, and I am a total strikeout whore. Unfortunately, He had an ERA of nearly 5 and a WHIP of 1.36. Oh yeah, and outside of some flashy performances, he really wasn't all that great at striking dudes out. I finally traded him, and he started doing a whole lot better. He must have just not wanted to be a part of a winning culture.

15. Josh Willingham - He hit .198 in 62 games for my team after being a throw-in in the Ryan Braun deal. He did hit ten home runs, which wasn't too bad. He actually earns positive points for being so bad that I dropped him instead of getting rid of Chris Carter.

14. Chris Tillman - Man, I tried to hold onto Tillman as long as I could. Finally, after 71 innings of 5.20 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, I finally had to replace him. He proceeded to dominate after that, somehow lowering his ERA to 3.34 and his WHIP to 1.23. I did not know he was that good until looking up these stats. That very much sucks. I will likely not be rooting for Chris Tillman anytime soon.

13. Jorge De La Rosa - He was a throw-in on one of my selling trades, and he performed like one in his only start, going 5.1 innings and giving up five runs. He did have five strikeouts, so that was nice at least.

12. Joe Smith - Another throw-in. He managed .2 innings, gave up a run and three hits. He may have been the worst pitcher on a per inning basis, but considering he had less than an inning, he didn't have enough time to be that negative of a presence.

11. Juan Francisco - This ends the trifecta of throw-ins. He played one game, was 0/4. He provided no positive value, but at least his negative value was limited.

10. Josh Reddick - With Reddick's rampant support of the Ultimate Warrior, I wanted him to stay on my team, but he hit under .200 in 24 games for my team. Also, I saw him in person during that stretch and he played like garbage which was the nail in the coffin for me to drop him. At least he improved after that.

9. Ubaldo Jimenez - I kept him for 21.1 innings, and he provided me with a 6.75 ERA and nearly a WHIP of 2. He shockingly was unable to get a win while pitching like that. Somehow, there were nine guys that I deemed worse than him.

8. Sergio Santos - Santos has been a guy that I have liked for a while, because he throws hard and has the proven closer label which inevitably means he will get more chances. Casey Janssen was hurt to start this year, so Santos stepped into the closer role, and he may have lost his proven closer label because of it. He managed to give up 11 earned runs in 8.1 innings. Somehow, he still managed five saves, but amazingly he never really got better this season, so at least he lost his closer role early enough to not completely destroy my pitching staff.

7. Jedd Gyorko - This one hurts, as I love Jedd Gyorko, which only gave him more of a chance to hurt me. Gyorko was awful at the beginning of the season, and I never even considered dropping him. Despite a lengthy DL stint, he still finished eighth in games played for my team. Obviously, looking back, I wish I wouldn't have drafted him and just picked him up when someone inevitably released him, but that didn't happen, and it turns out he was not the solution.

6. Mike Moustakas - 109 at bats, just 16 hits. He did hit four home runs, so that was something.

5. Mike Olt - I feel like Mike Olt had some good stretches early on this season. None of those moments happened for my team as he went 3/28 for a .107 average and zero home runs. I have actually liked Mike Olt for a while. That is why he was initially lower on this list, and this may still be generous. He was really terrible for my team.

4. Jose Veras - He was given the Closer's job for the Cubs, yet could not manage a save before being demoted and eventually released. He did manage 12.27 ERA. At least I waited and picked up Hector Rondon to be my replacement Closer. Otherwise, he would make a strong case for the #1 spot.

3. Tanner Scheppers - I picked him up at the beginning of the season, because if the Rangers believed in him enough to make him their opening day starter, then surely he would succeed. Four innings and seven earned runs later, he was quickly dropped. Good for him on getting his ERA down to an even 9.00 by the end of the year.

2. Luis Valbuena - Valbuena was brought in when both Chris Owings and Jedd Gyorko were on the DL, and I needed some second base help. Somehow, he performed even worse than Gyorko by batting just .159 in 21 games. I'm really glad I was not a believer in Josh Harrison and went with Valbuena instead.

1. Justin Masterson - Expecting Justin Masterson to immediately turn his fortunes around when joining the Cardinals seemed like a likely outcome to me. Turns out, the Cardinals could not fix his issues. He was the hottest of garbage with an ERA of nearly 8 in 28 innings for my team. The positive was that he was hurting the Cardinals; the negative was that I traded for him and chose Masterson over getting Trevor Bauer in the deal. And, just want to put this on the record: If the Cubs sign him this offseason, there is a 100% chance I end up drafting him two rounds before anybody would even consider him. Why do we love the ones that hurt us?

And that wraps it up. The longest fantasy baseball story ever told is over. I would congratulate the ones who made it to the end, but I highly doubt anyone did. Still, if you did, thanks a lot. Thanks a whole bunch, because fantasy sports stories are boring, and my writing isn't good enough to completely save it, so this was a long, hard journey that you completed. You are a great friend and mentor. All I'm really trying to say in this final paragraph is, "Thanks for reading, Mom."

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Six

For a review of where we have been so far:

Part One - The Draft
Part Two - The Start of the Season
Part Three - Becoming a Seller
Part Four - The Rebuild
Part Five - The Trade Deadline

So did all of my moves pay off? Immediately, things were looking pretty good. I was facing a playoff team with the likes of Stanton, Altuve, and Felix, but my team took them behind the woodshed and put a beating on them. Chris Carter led the offense by providing 6 runs, two home runs, seven RBI, and even a stolen base all while batting over .300. On the pitching side, Odorizzi, Salazar, Hamels, Arrieta, and Stroman were all on point. It was an 8-1-1 victory and my fifth straight win.

That matchup was the beginning of the toughest stretch of the season, as it was the first of five straight weeks against every team that would be in the playoffs. Next up was the team that I traded Carlos Gomez to (whoops) as well as Longoria, Greinke, and Uehara. He had won four in a row, and we were tied in the standings so I needed this one. Luckily I had Chris Carter to hit three homers, and Utley, Sandoval, and recent acquisition, JJ Hardy, to add two apiece. The pitching was nearly as good with Eovaldi, Odorizzi, Stroman, and Hamels all adding dominant starts to carry my team to a dominant 7-1-2 victory.

After that, it was time to play the first place team. They hadn't lost in seven weeks. Chris Carter came up big again as he hit four home runs during the week. Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff with two strong starts during the week, yet it was still close going into Sunday. I held a slight lead going into Sunday, but luck was not on my side. I scored a solid 6 runs on Sunday, but he scored 10 to take the lead in that category. While I hit .269 on the final day, he hit .365 to take a .007 advantage in batting average. And finally, despite having Salazar and Arrieta giving up a combined two runs, neither got a win, while he managed to get a win out of Neftali Feliz to take over the lead in that category. My team put up a strong week, but it was not enough, as we lost 6-4.

I was tied for third, but just a game out of second place with three weeks left. Luckily, I would be playing that second place team the following week, and my team was not one to let a single loss get them down, it just made them more determined. This week wasn't pretty, but we managed a solid enough performance. Justin Upton had 11 RBI, and Ben Revere and Leonys Martin combined for five stolen bases to help the offense, while Hector Rondon managed four saves to give me the 7-6 edge, and a 6-4 victory.

Unfortunately, that week also marked Gregory Polanco getting sent down the minors. Since I knew he would be called up in about a week when rosters expanded, I was not ready to get rid of him. My DL spots got filled up by Sean Doolittle getting hurt, so it was time to get rid of some wasted space and boost my outfield. Luckily, the perfect guy just called up to the majors.

I dropped Matt Cain and acquired Jorge Soler in free agency.

I was down to only two moves, and unfortunately, Wilin Rosario was hitting the DL meaning that I would have to get another catcher, so I picked up Travis d'Arnaud while finally ridding my team of Joey Votto.

He had won four in a row, but my team would not let him make it five. Soler and Carter both hit three home runs. Carter did it while hitting .222 while Soler batted .538. Eovaldi, Odorizzi, and Cobb all got double digit strikeouts for the week, which was enough to give me a couple pitching categories. Stolen bases from Ben Revere and Jose Abreu on Sunday were enough to get me a tie in that category for a gritty 5-4-1 victory.

With one week left, there was a three-way tie for second place and an all-important bye in the first round. There would be no drama for my team, as we were playing the worst team in the league, nearly all of my pitchers dominated and Chris Carter added three home runs, while d'Arnaud hit a bomb of his own while hitting over .500. The other two teams won as well, but I had the tiebreaker. This infuriated another member of the league as he felt he should have been #2 or #3 but was instead given the #4 seed. Maybe my favorite moment of the year was him calling me to tell me that he had just talked to ESPN Customer Support to figure out the tiebreakers (turns out it was whoever won the most categories in their matchups throughout the year).

But all that means is that I won nine out of my last ten matchups to earn a bye in the first round despite having the same record as two other teams in the league. It was time to take the week off and let my team rest for the journey ahead, because this Cinderella was ready to wear her slipper. But we will get to all of that in part seven.

Thursday, October 2, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Two

We last left off this story right after the draft. A lot of people believe that a strong draft is the way to build a championship team. I believe that the draft is the first chapter of a long book, and I will trade my mother if I think I can get good value.

So the first thing that I did after the draft was get myself a real shortstop and got Chris Owings. I also took advantage of 3 DL spots, so I could add Derek Holland and pick up Tanner Scheppers to start for my team on Opening Day. I added Tyler Skaggs and immediately dropped him after his first start. So, yeah, my early pickups did not pay off, but the 25 pickups didn't start until halfway through week one, so I was still fine. I did manage to pickup Nate Eovaldi early on who had some good moments before falling apart in the second half, but he would stay with my team for a very long time.

Halfway through the second week of the season, I was convinced that Ryan Braun was not going to be healthy enough to tap into his power potential and began my efforts to trade him. It would take me nearly two months to trade him, but it would be worth it when it finally happened.

Anyway, things were going shockingly well for my team in the standings. Nate Eovaldi and Chris Tillman helped lead my pitching and carry the team to victory in Week 1. After that, both Jose Abreu and Justin Upton had four home runs to help my offense carry me to a victory in Week 2. In Week 3, BJ Upton's three steals and multi-homer weeks from Votto, Moustakas, and Braun helped me enough to pull off a tie. In Week 4, Jose Abreu hit five home runs, and Chris Carter added three in what may have been his only valuable week during the first half of the season. After the first month, I was 3-0-1.

I also wisely Brandon McCarthy twice in this span, but don't worry, I would drop him before he actually got things turned around and started dominating. I did pick up Hector Rondon who solidified my relievers and also Drew Hutchsion who had some nice moments throughout the year. Unfortunately, my luck was about to run out.

In Week 5, my offense completely shit the bed, and my pitching wasn't much better. In Week 6, we got a lot of strikeouts and home runs but didn't do much else for another loss. In Week 7, Hutchison, Tillman, and Tanaka all threw complete game shutouts, but that was still only enough to get me a tie.

Week 7 also marked Danny Salazar being sent to the minors who I replaced with Jaime Garcia. I immediately tried to trade him for an underperforming Pablo Sandoval. The owner told me that it was close, but he needed a solid third base option in return. A few days later, I noticed that David Freese was coming off the DL. One minute after adding Freese, I made an offer of Freese and Garcia for Sandoval which was enough to get the job done two hours later.

I traded Jaime Garcia and David Freese for Pablo Sandoval.

I turned two free agent pickups into a hitter that was just about to get over his cold streak and hit very well for the rest of the season, so that worked out well.

Still, things were not going so well in the standings. Pablo Sandoval did help in his first week with multiple homers, and Justin Upton added three to get me my first win in a month. After that, I didn't have enough to win despite double-digit strikeouts from Tillman, Hamels, Greinke, and even David Robertson.

I was ten weeks into the season, and my team was 4-4-2. If the season ended today, I was in the playoffs, but there were a lot of holes in my roster and the guys that I bet on just didn't seem to be paying off. I was ready to make a change, and change was going to be drastic.

Tune in next time for part three of the longest fantasy baseball story ever told.