Joe Burrow - 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Before I get started breaking down Joe Burrow, I first want to make everyone in Louisiana immediately hate me and think that I’m a total piece of shit and compare him to Mitch Trubisky. Both were Mr. Football in Ohio, both went away from Ohio State to pursue their football dreams with Trubisky enrolling at North Carolina and Burrow transferring to LSU, and they both have one year of production that everyone wants to judge them on. Athletically, Burrow is incredibly similar to Mitch Trubisky. They’re not running quarterbacks, but they are quarterbacks who can run so you need to respect their legs since they have enough juice to get first downs if left unattended.

Now for Trubisky, his one year was his only year as a full-time starter, while Burrow has one incredible year after putting up pedestrian numbers in his first year at LSU. It makes me wonder why it is better to be unimpressive one year as opposed to just not playing that much. I would tend to favor the guy that never played before, because everything I have seen from him has been good, and the big thing that people are asking themselves about Burrow is whether he made massive improvements or whether this year is an outlier that will not translate to the NFL level. 

To break down Burrow, I took a look at his 2018 game against Florida, and his 2019 games against Alabama and Texas. 

Let's get those Louisianans back on my side with a beautiful back shoulder fade from Burrow. I have to say that I was a lot more impressed than I expected to be with Burrow's 2018 performance.

Here, he starts looking down the middle before shifting to the outside and sets his feet and makes a really nice throw on the slant to pick up a first down. The thing that I really liked about this throw is that Burrow not only throws it between two converging defenders, but he also throws it low so his receiver can avoid taking a big hit.

The biggest issue that I had while watching Burrow is how he handled pressure. He just doesn't have great feel in the pocket and even though he starts scrambling, he is doing it to make a play and does not know that there is a blitzer on his backside.

Two other things that I noticed in 2018 that did not seem to be as much of a problem this past season is that he would often throw short of the first down on third downs despite not facing any pressure. He's firing the ball all over the place this year so that is definitely not an issue.

The other thing is that he wasn’t real comfortable scanning the field when his first read was covered. There were a few times where he did some checkdowns, but rarely was he able to look at more than half the field. As for 2019, it was amazing to see him scan the field with no issues. He was looking left to right, checking down and finding open receivers. 

It's night and day. He’s very quick in his decision making. Here, he is looking down the field, nothing opens up, and he sets and fires to his running back while barely looking because he knows there is nobody over there to cover him. 

Burrow baits the defense on this play as he’s looking to his left the whole way, just waiting for the receivers to cross the field where there is no safety on the right side. It’s about as easy of a touchdown as you’re going to see. 

This is such a great play by Burrow as he stays calm in his pocket. His first option is covered, his second option is covered, his third option is covered, there’s nothing to the right side of the field, so he pivots, sees his receiver on the drag has some space and makes the easy completion. 

Unfortunately, his issues with pressure continued to pop up in 2019. He just doesn't have great pocket awareness or movement. Most of the time, he just doesn't show great feel for pressure, but he can also get moving and make poor decisions.

Here is a case where Burrow tries to force something that simply isn't there and nearly gets it intercepted on second down.

Even with occasional struggles against pressure, he is still willing to step up in the pocket and make big time throws. 

I love how he steps up in the pocket to make this throw. Burrow can fit it in tight windows but was also clearly helped by some very impressive wide receivers.

Overall, there is a lot to be excited about with Burrow. He's very accurate with his throws, shows the ability to scan the entire field and even though it's not a big arm, it's plenty big enough to get the job done. As for the National Title game tonight, Clemson has the studs on defense to pressure Burrow, and tonight may be the most important game to watch if I'm an NFL Scout, because if Clemson is able to pressure him, it will be interesting to see whether Burrow can raise his game and still lead his Tigers to victory.

I personally think that Clemson's defense will provide enough stops for their offense to carry them, but this certainly wouldn't be the first time someone underestimated Joe Burrow and was proven wrong.

The 45 Most Important Players to the Chicago Bulls Dynasty - #40 Ricky Blanton

Ricky Blanton
Ricky Blanton was a throwback, spending five years in college at LSU. He even averaged over 20 points and eight rebounds per game during his senior season. He impressed enough that he was drafted in the second round by the Phoenix Suns in 1989. Fun fact, that draft pick originally belonged to the Chicago Bulls but was traded along with Ed Nealy for Craig Hodges. He didn't make the Suns, but he kept on grinding.

He was brought on during the 1992 preseason by the Chicago Bulls, but he failed to make the team. Still, he kept sharp with the Wichita Falls Texans. I checked, and yes, Wichita Falls is in Texas. It paid off for him in February of 1993 when the Chicago Bulls signed him to a 10-day contract.

Blanton made those 10 days count as he got in two games, threw up seven shots, hitting three of them for a total of six points. He also managed three rebounds, an assist, and not one but two steals in his limited time. The Bulls won both games by 18 points, tying him for the greatest winning percentage of any player in NBA history.

Unfortunately, the Bulls hubris got the best of them, and they did not renew his contract. The Bulls would go on to lose games during that season, but they did still manage to win their third title in as many years.

Ricky was the ultimate victory cigar. That's why I call him Ricktory Blunton.

Previous Entries:

#45 - Jack Haley

#44 - Rory Sparrow

#43 - Chuck Nevitt

#42 - David Vaughn

#41 - Jo Jo English

Breaking Down the Running Backs of the 2017 NFL Draft

Earlier this week, I tackled the quarterbacks of the 2017 NFL Draft, so today, I wanted to analyze their backfield mates in the running backs of this class. This class is very exciting at the top of the draft, so I wanted to focus on the top four names in this year's class.

Dalvin Cook - Florida State
From what is on tape, there is no doubt that Dalvin Cook should be the first running back off the board. Unfortunately, there are issues outside of the tape that could make an impact. Most importantly is the shoulder injuries. Shoulder injuries used to be a death sentence for running backs, as guys never seemed to be able to stay healthy after sustaining one, but medical technology has helped where it’s not a deal breaker, but it would be silly not to drop him down a bit because of that.

Second is his testing numbers at the combine. His numbers were abysmal. Watching the guy play, there is no way he could have tested that poorly, so I can’t say that it should have a huge impact, but the only real explanation of him testing that poorly is him simply not giving a shit.

Which leads us to the third issue, and that’s off the field issues. I don’t put much weight at all at this, but with the combine testing being so poor, it does worry me a bit about whether he’s taking football 100% seriously. I really hope he is, but I also have to hope he stays healthy, which is a worrisome combo.

(watches Clemson game again)

Oh hell, just draft the guy.

Leonard Fournette - LSU
I know that ranking someone over Fournette may seem like blasphemy to the average football fan, but that’s how much I love my guy Cook. Still, Fournette is the closest thing we’ve had to Adrian Peterson. He doesn’t avoid hits; he looks to make them. He will be a very good running back, but his versatility has to be questioned a bit, and that hurts his overall value. Still, if you’re looking for a back to pound the rock between the tackles, you’re not going to do any better than Fournette.

Christian McCaffery - Stanford
Okay, let’s address the elephant in the room. Christian McCaffery is a running back, but he is also a (gasp) white guy. Okay, obviously, the next assumption is that he’s a fullback in the John Kuhn mold, but no, he is actually a halfback that is not just in there for 1-2 yard dives and blocking assignments. I know it’s tough to wrap your head around, so I’ll give you a minute…

Okay, now let’s talk about how stupid good this guy is. Two years ago, he set the record for yardage gained by any player in NCAA history; it was held by a guy named Barry Sanders, who went on to have a decent NFL career. So after breaking this record, people were disappointed that he didn’t have as good of stats as the GREATEST SEASON IN NCAA HISTORY. Now, there were rumors that he was dealing with injuries, and he still had an incredible season by any reasonable standard, but people were still disappointed.

Here’s the thing with McCaffery. He’s an incredible running back. He fits in perfectly with new offenses in the NFL. He’s not going to be your Leonard Fournette, pounding the ball repeatedly up the gut, but he’s going to be a guy who can take 15-18 carries, with another 5-7 catches a game. He handled the workload at Stanford, so there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to handle it at the next level. And he’s so stupid good that his floor is Darren Sproles with a ceiling of poor man’s Marshall Faulk. I know those are black guys, but it’s the best comparison you’re going to find.

Joe Mixon - Oklahoma
Ugh, it’s time to feel dirty.

You’ve probably seen the video, and it is sickening. But the video doesn’t make the act itself any worse than people who don’t have it on video. But it’s definitely bad. Unlike Greg Hardy, Joe Mixon has outwardly shown remorse, but my cynicism understands that this may be so he can get paid. I don’t know how to weigh that, so I just want to evaluate him as a football player.

As a football player, he’s really freaking good. There is no way to watch him play without thinking one word: Explosive. He just explodes in all of his actions. It’s one cut and blast through the hole, but he also showed good patience and vision to wait for a hole instead of just ramming himself straight into a pile of bodies. He does a good job of catching the ball, as he’s a hands catcher so he should also be an asset in the passing game. On talent alone, he’s without a doubt a first round talent and arguably the best running back in this class.

But there’s also the other stuff, and without immediate access to Mixon, there is no way to properly weigh that. I mean, is a team really sending a message by not drafting him until later? Like, we see how talented this guy is, but the off the field troubles only make him a third rounder in our eye; is that admirable? I think he likely drops to round two, and as a football player, it’ll be great value, but that doesn’t mean I have to feel good about it.

Scouting The 2014 NFL Draft: Chicago Bears Selection Ego Ferguson

Now that the draft is over, I feel pretty good about things. I am basing this off of approximately 30 second of highlight videos, and that their final pick has a very famous pedigree.

I'm just going to assume that Jay Leno's real first name is Charles, and the Bears just drafted the Prince of Late Night.
— Hott Joe (@HottJoe) May 10, 2014

That's enough to go off of, right? Well, I'm unemployed, and that means that I don't need to settle when it comes to consuming sports, so I'm going to go through every draft pick that the Bears made to see what kind of talent they were able to bring in through the draft. So far, I have finished the following reports:

Round One - Kyle Fuller - CB - Virginia Tech

Now it is time to take a look at Bears second round pick, Ego Ferguson by checking out his game against Mississippi State.

So the first thing that you have to know about Ego Ferguson is that he was not drafted to make plays. That sounds weird, but his job is much more to prevent the offense from making plays. He's 325 pounds, so he isn't going to be knifing through the line as the 3-technique. His job is much more to take up blockers and hold his ground. So expecting some mind-blowing highlights will probably leave you disappointed in Ferguson's performance.

He can get moving and penetrate if a team tries to stop him with a single blocker.

He doesn't make the play, but he does blow by the left guard who is unable to close the distance as the center blocks to his right. This may have been a miscommunication by the offensive line, but it shows that the big man can move, even if the final result is not ideal on the play.

The one thing to like is that he keeps his feet moving when he is engaged with a blocker. When he gets his hands underneath the lineman, he is able to manipulate him well enough. He's not quite Timmy Jernigan where he never really gives up ground, but as long as he stays low, he is tough to move without multiple blockers.

This is what happens when Ferguson is unable to do his job.

On this play, the lineman turns Ferguson's shoulders, and the running back has a huge lane to go through for a first down.

This is what it looks like when Ferguson is able to do his job.

He doesn't make the play. The quarterback even gains a few yards on the draw, but he occupies two blockers long enough where the guard can't peel off and take out the linebacker before the quarterback has no place to go.

I like the idea of Ego Ferguson more than what I actually saw from him in this game. The Bears run defense was awful last year. It was so bad that I truly don't understand why teams passed against them. So a person like Ego Ferguson was a necessary addition. But man, just three picks before the Bears took Ferguson, the Ravens got Timmy Jernigan, and that dude is a beast. After looking at the Bears first two picks, I am left thinking about what could have been. Had the Bears lost one more game, they end up with Aaron Donald and Timmy Jernigan in the middle of their line. That would have had me excited. Instead, I'm trying to give myself a reason for optimism, because from what I have seen Fuller and Ferguson are just fine. Still, Emery has made enough good decisions in his tenure to earn the benefit of the doubt. I just hope I'm not left dreaming of what might have been.

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Zach Mettenberger

I am getting an earlier start on scouting the 2014 NFL Draft, as I'd like to do more of them, and some quarterbacks seasons are already over, so there is no more tape to study. The first guy that I will take a look at had a disappointing end to his year as he tore his ACL. Zach Mettenberger of LSU took a huge step forward this season. He flashed his talent last year, especially against Alabama, but this year, he consistently put big points on the board for the Tigers. It's a shame that LSU did not have a dominating defense for the first time in a while, and the ACL tear is obviously a pretty big bummer too. I took a look at his performance against Mississippi State as well as his games against UAB and Florida.

So the first thing that stands out is the arm. He has the physical tools to make all the throws at the next level. When he plants his feet and fires, he really drives the ball down field to his receivers. He makes this throw look effortless.

That is a beautiful ball. And here is another example of why scouts will fall in love with him:

He puts the ball right in there down the sideline and drops it into his receiver's hands. You cannot throw a better ball than that.

It is impossible to talk about how good Mettenberger can look without mentioning his receivers. I love how Odell Beckham Jr. snatches the ball out of the air. Attacking the ball is one of the most important features for a wide receiver, and he has shown a great ability to attack the ball with his hands instead of waiting for it to come to him. It's something that attracted me to Alshon Jeffery while in college, because it's a skill that carries over to the pro level when coverages are going to be much tighter. Here is an excellent example of that.

Yeah, that's really fun to watch. Oh, and Jarvis Landry isn't bad either.

Having those two guys will make any quarterback look pretty good. Which brings us to the bad...

A big issue that I have with Mettenberger is his ability to anticipate receivers getting open. Instead of trusting his receivers,, he waits until they are open to throw the ball. By the time the ball gets there, the defenders have closed the distance which makes the catch much more difficult for his receivers.

Beckham is able to make this catch, but if he throws that ball earlier, it is much easier for him. Instead he battles the defender and has to make a very good play on the ball. In college, the difference in talent between his receivers and the defenders they are facing is much larger than it will be at the next level.

His accuracy is not great. He struggles putting touch on the ball. On these two throws, he has open receivers but overthrows both of them.

The screen pass seems worse, because he badly overthrows it and it turns into an interception, but at least he had the excuse of pressure on that throw. With the ball down the sideline to Beckham, it's just poor footwork that causes him to miss his open receiver. He consistently misses on passes where he is forced to put touch on the ball.

When throwing over the middle, it seems like he is always throwing his receivers high. This is a major issue, because throwing low/short leads to incompletions, but throwing high/long leads to interceptions.

This is a pass that lands incomplete, but it is in very dangerous territory as there are plenty of Florida defenders around that football, and he gives his receiver no chance to make a play on the football.

On top of that, he underthrows balls down the field despite having plenty of arm strength. He still managed a 65% completion rate, but he doesn't make it easy on his receivers. He doesn't do a great job of leading them open, and it's much more a testament to the receiving corps' talents that their passing game was so potent this year.

At first glance, Mettenberger seems like a good prospect. He has great arm strength, good size, and enough mobility to survive. His stats look impressive enough that you could convince yourself that this is a guy to build a team around, but the more I watched, the more problems I saw. The biggest issue is the accuracy. This is not something that I would bet on being able to fix. He's been throwing the ball for 15 years, and it's not there yet, so I really don't see it happening at this point. Overall, he has a lot of arm talent, but the accuracy issues are too much for me to be willing to take a chance on him outside of a late-round flier. I fully expect a team to fall in love with the arm strength and take him off the board much earlier than that, but I do not see him as a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL.