Showing posts with label Nate Stanley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nate Stanley. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Nate Stanley - 2020 NFL Draft Scouting Report

This one is near and dear to my heart as I have watched every snap of Nate Stanley's career as the quarterback of my beloved Iowa Hawkeyes. There were ups, there were downs, and there were truly some inexplicable moments during his three years as a starter, but overall Nate Stanley had more positives than negatives as a college quarterback. Still, I wanted to rewatch some of his games from this past season to see how some of those talents will translate to the next level. Since I wanted to be happy as opposed to getting angry at a game that happened six months ago, I chose his games against USC, Minnesota, and Purdue

Before we get into the passing, let's talk about the athleticism. It's not good, as the combine showed, but this man is likely the next Tom Brady in one area.
He's a master of the quarterback sneak. 

Don't believe me? Try topping this.
He gained eight yards sneaking the ball. EIGHT YARDS. This could work as an entire offense.

The thing that is going to stand out most about Stanley is his arm strength.
This is really what scouts are going to love with Stanley. He has a big arm and can rifle the ball into small areas. 

The most frustrating thing about Stanley is that although he can make all the throws, he never put together the consistency you would want to see from a starting quarterback. This especially showed up when he is on the road and with his deep balls.
This has been the most painful part of the Nate Stanley experience. His first year as a starter, I think he completed like 1 of 25 deep balls. I would stand up in anticipation every time he let it rip, and every time I would quietly sit back down while cursing under my breath. It's gotten better since his sophomore season, but it's still not good.

His accuracy is inconsistent on all levels, including screen passes.
He completes the pass, but the tight end has no momentum to gain yards after the catch because of where the ball was placed. He has to stop his route, catch, and turn before heading up field to gain yardage. 

Stanley will also struggle under pressure.
Here, the pressure is not overwhelming, and he still has plenty of space. Despite that, he tries to fire the ball while falling backwards, and it is hilariously off target for such a short throw.

Another issue he has under duress is trying to escape out of the pocket instead of stepping up into it.
He's not athletic enough to ever make this strategy work, but it can fail horribly at times as seen here. His running back does let him down on this play, but he often fails to find pockets to throw in and will run himself into more pressure than he gets out of.

I know this wasn't the most positive evaluation, but Nate Stanley is a sports writer's dream. He isn't the most physically gifted guy, but he always gives it 100% and will grind away any way that he can. Sure, he struggles under pressure and seems to get demonstrably worse on the road, but he's always there grinding and will always do just enough to at least keep his team in the game. Unfortunately, with the step up in competition, a lot of that grit just won't translate without more skills. He throws some great balls in the intermediate game, but his accuracy at all levels is a tick below where you would like to see it, and he doesn't have the awareness or athleticism to make up for that. Nate Stanley was a good quarterback for the Iowa Hawkeyes, but his ceiling is probably just a good backup in the NFL.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

The 5 Most Important Iowa Hawkeyes Who Could Declare For The NFL Draft

The Iowa Hawkeyes somehow managed to show a tremendous amount of skill yet have an incredibly disappointing season this past year. They showed they could blow the doors off teams, but also showed that if they were in a close game, they would make that one mistake that would cost them at the worst possible time. It was so frustrating and yet I look at this team, and I would feel totally confident picking them to win the Big Ten West if everyone returned next year. The problem is there is close to a zero percent chance of that happening. I would say there are five guys who could at least consider the possibility, so let's rank them to see who Iowa most needs to come back for their success in 2019.

5. Noah Fant
I hate doing this, because Noah Fant is awesome. He came in as a true freshman, and it was like holy shit, that guy owns. The his sophomore year, he made a massive leap and set a record for touchdowns by a tight end. Even though he nearly matched those numbers this past season, it was still seen as a disappointment as he could have done so much more. Unfortunately, Iowa did not find the right fit for him, and although that seems incredibly stupid, "That's football." Since Iowa does not know how to best utilize him and (SPOILER ALERT) there is another person at this same position later in the list, I can't put him any higher than fifth on the list even though he will probably be the first guy off the board in the draft if all of these guys declared.

4. Nate Stanley
If Stanley leaves, what does Iowa have at quarterback? No freaking clue, but what Iowa needs at quarterback is not greatness but consistency. Stanley has shown far more greatness and consistency, and it leads to games like Penn State where an average performance is likely enough to get the Hawkeyes the win. There is a chance that although Iowa would be less talented at the position next year, they could still have a better record. There is also a chance that this puts Stanley way too low on the list, and there could be a massive dropoff without him. I feel like it's closer to the former than the latter so that is why he is only fourth on this list.

3. Anthony Nelson
This may seem high for Nelson as Iowa has AJ Epenesa ready to take over one starting defensive end spot and would seemingly be fine with Chauncey Golston taking over the other, but a lot of the strength of this year's defensive line has been their depth. They already need some new faces to show they can play at the interior of the defensive line, so keeping depth at defensive end is very important. With Nelson and Epenesa starting with Golston giving them a breather, the Hawkeyes would again have the best defensive end situation in the Big Ten. The defensive line has always been what makes the entire defense great at Iowa so here's to hoping that Anthony Nelson can hold off those NFL dreams for another year.

2. TJ Hockenson
So if Hockenson and Fant both go, this Iowa offense could be in some serious trouble. The tight ends made the offense go, and there was nobody I felt better about than Hockenson as he reliably got open and made the catch. He even occasionally leaped over people. So it will definitely hurt to not have those options. But when has Iowa not had a good tight end? Before Hockenson and Fant it was George Kittle, before him CJ Fiedorowicz, before him Tony Moeaki, then Brandon Myers, Scott Chandler, Dallas Clark, and Austin Wheatley. Hell, even before Ferentz got there, there was Iowa great, Scott Slutzker. I don't think I could be any more confident in Iowa finding a good option at than tight end. It's going to hurt, but there is hope that a tight end steps up, that Brandon Smith and Ihmir Smith-Marsette take a big step forward, and that my main man, Tyrone Tracy is the real deal.

1. Amani Hooker
Hooker was Iowa's Defensive MVP. The dude was all over the field, and I had mixed emotions when he won the award for best defensive back in the Big Ten. Like, yes, he deserves it, because the dude was phenomenal this year, but also could the Big Ten do me a favor and keep his dominance on the down low? Where Hockenson made me feel the best when Iowa threw to him, Hooker was the guy that I felt the best whether they were running toward him, passing toward him, or just letting him be anywhere near making a play, because I knew that he would. Iowa is already losing Jake Gervase, so safety depth is already at least somewhat of a question mark. Without Hooker back, it would leave a massive hole in the defense, because his versatility makes everyone around him better. For the Hawkeyes, I really hope he comes back.

That being said, with Hooker, and anyone listed above, if they can get paid, then get paid. Outside of Stanley, it's tough to see anybody significantly increasing their draft stock. And even though my heart would love to see the Hawkeyes run it back next year, my head knows that these guys have all given far more to the University of Iowa than they will ever get back, so if they can get paid, go ahead and make money. 

Sunday, October 28, 2018

5 Takeaways from the Iowa / Penn State Game

Oh, man, I haven't yelled at my TV like that in a long time. Did I yell too much or not enough? Either way, my behavior is unlikely to change, although my wife did bring up a good point that maybe I should watch intense games inside instead of outside as my yelling may have been enough to get the cops called (although this would be a very fitting Florida Man arrest story). Alas, the Hawkeyes fell 30-24 in a total rollercoaster of a game.

Let's Talk About Dominique Dafney
He blocked a punt and tried out for the wrestling team with a double leg takedown on kickoff coverage. The West Des Moines product is not a guy that is going to have many opportunities to get love, so let's love on Dominique Dafney. Great game, DD.

LeVar Woods Does What He Wants
LeVar Woods clearly has full control of what happens on fourth downs. First, he runs a play where they may have been looking to pull off a fake when Recinos ran out wide, but they didn't, so that one gets to stay in the holster. Last, he ran a fake punt where Iowa had two quarterbacks and Peyton Mansell was the QB who got the ball. They never really showed any route running or coverage, so I have no idea what the plan is, but I really would have liked for Mansell to throw the ball up and hope for the best.

But then there was that play in the middle. They didn't try to take Penn State by surprise. They just straight up lined up the punter in shotgun, and from ten yards out, everyone knew it was going to be a pass. Colton Rastetter did a slight role to his right, then threw back towards his left and threw a perfect pass to Sam Brincks who managed to haul it in while being hit. There is absolutely no way that Ihmir Smith-Marsette makes that catch, but Sam Brincks did. I don't know why that is a play. That is not a good play at all, but then again, maybe it is? It worked, and it will likely never have to work again. God bless LeVar Woods for spending all of his free time researching trick plays, because I'm pretty sure we have a bigger playbook for our special teams than we do for our offense.

Nate Stanley's Three Step Drop
A three step drop is a great way to get the ball out quick and easily let your quarterback throw it in rhythm. Iowa has really tried to incorporate this with Nate Stanley, but the problem is that Stanley's first option never seems to be open, and then he just kind of waits there while only being about two yards behind his offensive linemen. Then it gets so cramped that he has limited vision and space which is not a great recipe for success. I'm guessing the issue is that Stanley is not able to identify the defenses as well as he needs to in order to make these type of plays work as most times, he should know presnap where that ball is going. If Iowa wants to go with a three step drop, maybe try it from shotgun to give everybody a little bit more space.

TJ Hockenson's Two Chances
TJ Hockenson had what may have been the two biggest "What if" plays in this game. The first was so painful as Iowa both called and executed a beautiful play on third and one. Nate Stanley executed a beautiful fake, and Penn State came crashing in to stop the run while Hockenson snuck behind the defense and was the most wide open any player can possibly be without evacuating the stadium. The only thing that was not executed was Stanley's throw as he horrifically overthrew him and cost Iowa an easy touchdown. That would have put Iowa up 21-7 and would have changed the complexion of the rest of the game.

Then on Iowa's final drive, Hockenson made an incredible catch while diving out of bounds. On review, it was borderline. Whatever happened to indisputable evidence? With my black and gold colored glasses, I saw it as a catch but can understand that it was close. Still, I have a hard time with that catch being overturned. TJ Hockenson did everything he could to execute on these two plays; it just wasn't meant to be.

Somehow, Iowa Still (basically) Controls Its Own Destiny
With Northwestern beating Wisconsin, it actually sets up pretty damn well for the Hawkeyes. If Iowa wins out, and Northwestern only loses to Iowa in conference play, even if Wisconsin wins out, it will leave three teams at 7-2 in the conference. With everyone going 1-1 in head-to-head matchups, Iowa should get the tiebreaker with the best overall record. So Big Ten Championship, here we come, somehow.

But yeah, that loss hurt.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

4 Takeaways from the Iowa / Maryland Game

Another week, and another impressive performance from the Hawkeyes. The offense has had the chance to shine the last couple weeks, but today, it was all about the defense in a 23-0 shutout of the Maryland Terrapins. This is the type of win that Kirk Ferentz truly loves, dominance on defense, dominance in the kicking game, and less than 100 yards passing. BIG TEN FOOTBALL. Here are my four takeaways from the game.

Parker Hesse Is Always There
I know I give a tremendous amount of love to AJ Epenesa, and yes, Epenesa is, by far, the most talented guy on the defensive line, but nobody maximizes their impact quite like Parker Hesse. This is a guy who is nonstop hustle and knows how to be in the right place at the right time. He blew up Maryland's jet sweep on multiple occasions and added a sack late in the third quarter on a third down play that had Maryland converted, they may have actually had a chance to score on the Iowa defense. It's rarely flashy, but Hesse has been starting for what feels like a decade, and I am going to miss that constant next season.

Chauncey Golston Deserves Some Love
As I stated above, AJ Epenesa is the freak; Parker Hesse has started forever, and both Nelsons are massive human beings, starters, and yet somehow not related. Iowa has eight defensive linemen rotating in, and I feel like Golston is the least talked about, but damn, that dude is legit. Every game, there is a split second where I ask myself who linebacker #57 is and why he's tearing it up in an opponents' backfield, but then I realize it's Golston who makes plays every game. His stat line of three tackles with one tackle for loss isn't going to jump off the page, but watching him play in and play out is impressive. Hell, his most impressive play was stopping an outside run in the backfield, the runner was able to jump out of Golston's grasp, but the rest of the defense, led by Epenesa cleaned up the mess. Still, it was Golston that made that play happen, and even with the turnover up front, the future of the defensive line is still bright for the foreseeable future.

Kirk Ferentz Loves Field Position
Although Iowa is more dynamic and aggressive on offense, Kirk probably hasn't noticed at all. He's just staring at the flags at the top of the stadium to judge that wind. When he's not lost in those flags, the man is only thinking about punting and gaining all of the slightest edges. We all know that punting is winning, but Kirk puts his kickers and punters in the best position possible by calling timeouts at the end of the first and third quarters in order to ensure that Iowa would have the wind, and Maryland would be fighting against it in the kicking game. This man doesn't care about a seven point advantage, but a seven yard advantage? That's why Kirk Ferentz got into coaching.

Where Is The Weakness?
Iowa just keeps kicking ass. They had almost no passing game today, and it didn't matter as there were enough other parts that stepped up to make this a stress-free victory. So outside of Iowa biffing multiple punt returns, how does this team lose? The passing game has an improved Nate Stanley throwing to great tight ends and a receiving corps that seems to make incremental improvements every week. The running game looks better and better as there is are usually two running backs delivering, and the offensive line has dominated the past couple weeks. On defense, the defensive line is phenomenal, the linebackers fill the role, and Amani Hooker being able to step up in the box against spread formations really helps with the defense's versatility. At corner, nobody is challenging Julius Brents which is a pretty damn good sign that he will never see the bench again in his Iowa career, and Riley Moss has improved each week, although I think I still feel more comfortable with Hankins if he is able to get healthy.

There are only two things that could sidetrack this team, and they both revolve around the quarterback. The first is Nate Stanley dropping from nine to seven hours of sleep, so hopefully things don't get too tough on him during the second half of the semester. The second is what we saw late in the game yesterday where not one but two backup quarterbacks were put in the game with Peyton Mansell and Spencer Petras. WHO IS THE TRUE #2? Will this divide the Iowa locker room?

If Stanley sleeps and no backup quarterback peeps, this will be a season with memories we will keep.

Sunday, October 7, 2018

5 Takeaways from the Iowa / Minnesota Game

Iowa overcame all the odds and somehow managed to win a game after a bye week. Although the final score was 48-31, that doesn't show how dominant Iowa managed to be in this game.. Here are my five takeaways from Iowa keeping Floyd of Rosedale with its proper owners.

Nate Stanley Is Improving
The most lasting memory from this game may be Nate Stanley's awful interception, but I'm going to chalk that up to a case of Nate Stanley hearing how awful Minnesota is at football and truly testing the limits of how awful they could be. It turns out they can catch an interception if you gently loft it directly into their chest. Good to know.

But the biggest takeaway is that Nate Stanley has improved leaps and bounds from last year in his ability to move within the pocket. He is seeing pressure and stepping up while keeping his eyes down the field, and it was instrumental in keeping Iowa marching down the field.

Feeling the pressure is still an issue as it led to a fumble and an errant throw, but considering the improvement that he has made in handling pressure, I certainly won't bet against him in getting a better feel for pressure. Nate Stanley is getting better, and that should make future Iowa opponents very concerned.

Trick Plays Are Fun When They Work
Could Iowa craft an entire offense out of plays where the offensive line is far away from the center? I think so. Anyway, the trick play for a TJ Hockenson touchdown was magnificent, and I enjoyed it so, so much. But I heard a lot of people complaining that it was "wasted" on Minnesota. Iowa showed they were way better than Minnesota, but that trick play meant that I could relax when Nate Stanley had a turnover, so it was totally worth it. Also, this trick play worked to perfection, and it gained four yards. It looked like if Hockenson needed to, he is getting five, maybe six yards. If we don't use that play then, when exactly are we going to find a more ideal time to use it? Just be happy and enjoy the good times, and know that LeVar Woods has at least 30 more of these.

Julius Brents...Yes Please
(Insert Heart Emoji Eyes Here) My God, Julius Brents. Minnesota tried multiple strategies against Brents yesterday. The first was to avoid him at all costs. That strategy was definitely the most effective. The second strategy was try to throw his way. That strategy led to Brents continually breaking up passes and making an incredible interception. And this is not a man who has grinded with the program and refined his skills. He is a true freshman who made his first start yesterday. Iowa has had some incredible defensive backs. Bob Sanders, the criminally underrated Jovon Johnson, and Desmond King and Josh Jackson over the last couple years. Brents showed the skills where he could be mentioned along those greats at the end of his Iowa tenure. I already love this guy.

Riley Moss - The Best Bad Debut Ever
Instead of attacking Brents, they went after another Freshman making his first start, Riley Moss. Now, anytime a white cornerback shows up, all simple football brains must immediately think, "Is this the next Jason Sehorn?" As an Iowa fan, I realized that Adam Shada was a very real possibility, and that is more what we got. Minnesota went after Moss, and they had a lot of success doing it. Even addressing the bad, it's still good to see that his fundamentals were strong and he was staying close to guys, just not quite close enough.

On the bright side, he ended up with two interceptions, and interceptions are the ultimate way to judge a good cornerback. Therefore, as much as I like Julius Brents, I must admit that Moss is twice as good.

In all seriousness, Moss played admirably, but he's not quite ready for the big time. Still, two interceptions is really freaking cool, so good for him.

Shout Out to TJ Hockenson
I just want to give a shout out to TJ Hockenson as the Iowa pass catcher that I trust the most. If I see a ball thrown near Hockenson, I have so much confidence that he can actually come down with it, where I don't have anywhere near that confidence with anybody else. Brandon Smith might be second in my completely arbitrary rankings, but let's shout out Hockenson, Iowa's other tight end, because he's a guy who knows how to create separation and catch footballs. Noah Fant may be the most talented tight end in Iowa history (I know that's a bold statement, but NFL.com currently ranked him as the sixth best prospect in the nation), but Hockenson ensures that even though Fant will be missed, it won't likely be a huge dropoff in production.

Sunday, September 23, 2018

4 Takeaways from the Iowa / Wisconsin Game

Obviously, last night's game was not the outcome we were hoping for, but Iowa lost to a tough team. The season is far from over, and the Hawkeyes gave fans plenty to be excited for during the rest of the season. Here are my four big takeaways from the game.

The Defensive Line Is Good, Not Big
Wisconsin showed a major flaw in the defense in this game, and that is that the Iowa defensive line, although fantastic, is also undersized. There is probably no better team in the country to expose that weakness, and Wisconsin did by overpowering Iowa up front into a very effective run game. Even when Iowa was able to get Wisconsin to third downs, many were short enough distance that the defensive line couldn't totally pin their ears back and go hunting for a quarterback. Penn State is probably the only other team remaining on the schedule that could expose this weakness, and even they tend to run with more speed/misdirection rather than power.

Also, there is nothing more exciting than seeing AJ Epenesa on the field during a third down passing situation. I usually stand up despite being at my house watching the game by myself.

In other news, I really need friends.

Nate Stanley Was Incredible
This may have been the best game I have seen Nate Stanley play. Although his final stat line of 14-23 for 256 yards, two touchdowns and an interception isn't going to jump off the page, I saw so much to love from Stanley in this game. His movement when he felt a rush was much better as he actually looked downt he field after escaping trouble and was able to make some big plays because of it. When he was able to set his feet, he was able to deliver some beautiful throws down the field, and he showed good decision making throughout the game. His footwork still needs to improve on some throws, but I saw some major progress, and if he can start playing near this level on a consistent basis, Iowa is not scary, they are SCARY.

Playcalling Was Not The Issue
Every football fan also doubles as the world's greatest offensive coordinator. It's truly amazing how great Iowa would be if they would just hire a fan to call the plays. They would have never run (insert play that did not work). I think the biggest examples were the quarterback sneak on fourth and one, and the jet sweep on third and five in Wisconsin territory. For the former, I have no issue with hit. That quarterback sneak has been money for Iowa, and it's statistically one of the smartest plays to run in that situation. If it worked 100% of the time, every team would run it all the time. It didn't work that time, but that doesn't make it a bad call.

I will say that I did not like the jet sweep, but the call itself was fine. My big issue was the formation they ran it out of. Without a running back in the backfield, the linebacker was free to follow Sargent going across the formation. If there is a running back in the backfield, he can't completely abandon the middle of the field, and that would have given Sargent the lead he needed to hit the edge and make it upfield.

Also, let's give props to the second touchdown to Noah Fant. Fant going in motion and just running to the flat is impossible to stop in man coverage, so if you see the guy in coverage running across, it is a guaranteed six points. I love that play.

Iowa Has Legit Talent
Iowa did not lose this game, because Wisconsin was too talented for them. They lost because they made some big mistakes on punt returns, and failed to capitalize on opportunities at the end of drives. But Iowa looked like the better team. Mistakes happen, and Iowa's proved costly. Still, this team is good, and if Wisconsin stumbles, Iowa has the talent to be nipping at their heels for B1G West supremacy.

Even after a loss, I'm excited for the rest of the season. That's a pretty good spot to be for Hawkeye fans.

Sunday, September 16, 2018

4 Takeaways From The Iowa / Northern Iowa Game

Another week, another win for the Hawkeyes. Although Northern Iowa scored some touchdowns during garbage time, Iowa throttled the Panthers from the very start and finally had a dominating game where you can exhale and just enjoy the beatdown. Iowa should always beat a team like Northern Iowa in that manner, but as we know, it doesn't always work that way. Here are five big takeaways from Saturday night's game.

1. Nate Stanley Is the Best QB of the Kirk Ferentz Era...and the Worst Fit
Nate Stanley has the most talent of any quarterback Iowa has had on its roster during the Ferentz era. I would be very surprised if he wasn't the highest draft pick in a couple years, but although the talent is there, it's still very raw. That leads to total inconsistency, so although the ceiling is the highest, the floor is Jake Christiansen levels. The guys that have been successful under Ferentz haven't had the biggest arms, but they were accurate and quick decision makers. During Saturday's game, Stanley showed what he could he could be as outside of the interception, he looked great all game long. This is going to sound like a massive insult, but he kind of reminds me of Josh Allen with less arm strength and mobility. He still has a really good arm, but it's not a howitzer. His mobility, uh, yeah, that's not going to win any games. It's possible that he can gain consistency and accuracy in his throws, but in the meantime, he will guarantee that Iowa fans yell at their TV, sometimes in celebration, sometimes...not so much.

2. Iowa Doesn't Need a Lead Back
Ivory Kelly-Martin was supposed to be the starter this season, but due to an injury in game one, those plans have changed. In his place, Toren Young has taken over the lead role with Mekhi Sargent right behind him. It was always supposed to be a time share, but the percentages have changed. Luckily, the production hasn't. Iowa has two, and possibly three when IKM returns, backs that can be trusted to get in the game and make plays happen on the ground. In this game, Young led in rushing yards with 84 on the ground, including a touchdown, but Sargent had the more standout day as he had 72 yards, two touchdowns, and a 48-yard reception. The Iowa offensive line appears to be a lot closer to good than great, but these backs will get yards if given some holes, so even with an injury, there is enough depth to still keep the ground game churning.

3. Good God, This Defensive Line
Is it fair to ask whether this is the best defensive line during Kirk Ferentz's tenure? I know it's a bit absurd at first glance, but even if the starters can't quite be considered the best, Iowa has never had this amount of depth at all positions of the defensive line. Right now, the starters are Matt and Anthony Nelson, Sam Brincks, and Parker Hesse. If you swapped to the reserves of AJ Epenesa, Cedric Lattimore, Brady Reiff, and Chauncey Golston, that would still be a really good defensive line. There isn't a single one of those guys that I feel bad about when they are in the game, and that ability to swap guys out and keep them fresh may make this the most effective defensive line that Ferentz has ever had. As with all things Iowa, the big test comes this week, but even with the big hogs up in Wisconsin, they can't be feeling great about their chances on neutralizing this Iowa defensive line.

4. Tyrone Tracy Had 1 Catch, and I'm All In
Tyrone Tracy Jr. caught a pass from Peyton Mansell, and the fact that he caught the ball and looks fairly fast is enough to sell me on him being Iowa's best receiver. The wide receivers did have BY FAR their best game of the season, but I still don't have overwhelming confidence in any of them. Brandon Smith seems to be the most talented, and somehow Nick Easley emerged from the darkness to get ten receptions and a touchdown, but I haven't seen any of them reliably finding ways to get open. When Iowa can stretch the field with the vertical passing game, they are legitimately dangerous on offense. It gets them away from predictability where opposing defenses actually have to line up guys more than five yards off the line of scrimmage. I have no way of knowing whether Tracy can be that guy, but Iowa still needs one, so I'm just going to keep my wishful thinking.

Monday, September 10, 2018

5 Takeaways from the Iowa/Iowa State Game

Iowa is now 2-0 and has vanquished their first rival of the year with a 13-3 victory over Iowa State. I love my Iowa Hawkeyes, but let's be honest: This game sucked. I only yelled at my television three times, which is a record low for a game against the Cyclones. I know a lot of Iowa fans like to discount the meaning of this rivalry, but as somebody from the state, I know so many people that are fans of both schools that this game is important, so getting a win, no matter how ugly, still feels pretty damn good. Here are the five takeaways from the win.

AJ Epenesa Is A Stud
AJ Epenesa is fulfilling all Hawkeye fans greatest fantasies. This guy is an elite talent at the college level, and if he keeps progressing like this, he's going to be an elite NFL talent. Although we probably shouldn't expect him to average two sacks per game, he is going to consistently be in opposing backfields causing havoc. Late in the fourth quarter, he basically decided that he was going to end the game, and then he went out there and did it by drawing a holding call, batting down a pass, and then coming up with a strip sack that Iowa recovered. If somebody did that during a game, he might be named the player of the game, this man did it in a matter of minutes. He's very good, and if teams don't give their left tackle help on him, he's going to continue to wreak havoc.

Dijmon Colbert Might Be One Too
Did anyone else fall in love during yesterday's game? Because I sure did, and Colbert is the target of my affection. I don't know how to pronounce his first name, but I am all in on him at linebacker. Going into the game, I thought David Montgomery might be the best player in the game, but due to Colbert being all over the field making tackles, I'm not even sure if Montgomery was the best #32 in the game. Colbert not only made a huge stop at the goal line early in the game, but he was consistently reading and reacting like a senior when he has barely played linebacker in his life. How he looked in his first start would have been impressive for somebody with any level of experience, but considering how little experience he has, the sky is the limit. It will be interesting to see what happens when Kristian Welch comes back, but I saw enough from Colbert to make a pretty strong argument that he keeps the job.

Nate Stanley Is...Fine
It was another uninspired performance from Nate Stanley, and I can't say it is all that surprising. This was what Stanley did last year as sometimes he looked great, and other times, it all came crashing down. I don't think he's been bad, but he has continued to struggle with his pocket presence as the slightest bit of pressure gets him to bail. It's also a question of how good he can be if receivers aren't getting separation. I felt like the offensive play calling was a little too conservative, as I would have really liked to see Iowa use their tight ends to attack the Cyclones safeties. The Hawkeyes are going to need more from him to beat the Badgers in two weeks. To end on a positive, he threw two beautiful deep balls in this game, which is something he may not have done twice all of last season.

Colton Rastetter Might Be Good
The discrepancies between the two punters in this game was pretty incredible. Rastetter has really shined this year as he is consistently getting big yards out of his punts and has shown the versatility to do both rugby and traditional punting. Iowa is always going to be in close games, so having a reliable punter may seem like a small thing in the SEC. But in the B1G, punting is winning, and Iowa is looking like a real contender with Rastetter.

Offensive Line Still Gelling
Overall, I thought the offensive line played pretty well. Things still seem to be shaking out at guard, but it was definitely helpful to have the two tackles back in there. I know the running stats were pretty poor, but Iowa State was selling out for the run and Iowa did not make them pay with the passing game. I think it will be good for everyone to play Northern Iowa next week to (hopefully) help build their cohesion and confidence.

Again, it wasn't pretty, but a win is a win, and I will always take a win against the Cyclones.

Friday, August 31, 2018

What To Expect From The 2018 Iowa Hawkeyes

College football is finally back, and oh, how I have missed you, my sweet mistress. I mean, what a pleasure it is to be a B1G fan as we have coaches helping other coaches beat women, and that doesn't even register on the "this is really bad" scale since another coach not only helped players get away with assaulting women; he also set up workouts that killed a player. Sorry, SEC, but you ain't got shit on the B1G.

Fuck, college football is some truly awful shit.

But, since we didn't create a workout that made guys piss blood this offseason, the Iowa Hawkeyes are in the clear, so let's look at the football side of things. Can the Iowa Hawkeyes be good? Yes. Could they be very good? It's possible. Will they shock the world and win a National Title? Only time will tell...but no, they will not.

But Iowa is still interesting.

Quarterback
Nate Stanley exceeded all expectations in his first year as a starter last season. It feels odd saying this, but outside of tight end, this may be the position to feel best about going into the season on offense. Stanley had ups and downs, but with experience, he can hopefully minimize the lows while still helping Iowa put up 50+ on the blue bloods of the B1G. There are a lot of people predicting big things for him this year, and it certainly wouldn't be shocking if he was the best quarterback in the conference. That's going to depend a lot on the people around him.

Wide Receivers
Nick Easley seems to have the best chance as long as he can convert a few of those drops into catches with Brandon Smith as the second receiver, who has shown he has some size and athleticism, but not much else. Ihmir Smith-Marsette is a legitimately fast player who plays for Iowa, so that's exciting, but it's not clear that the coaching staff has much faith in him. Right now, it's probably unlikely that this team is going to have a great passing attack that is led by its wide receivers.

Tight Ends
But even if the receivers fail to take a step forward, Stanley will have reliable options in tight ends Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson. Got some good news and bad news when it comes to Fant. The good news is that he is one of the best tight ends in the nation and is a damn game changer at the position. The bad news is that if he comes anywhere near repeating last year's performance, his ass is gone to the NFL. There are worse things to deal with than players being so awesome that they leave early for the NFL, especially at a position like tight end where Iowa just keeps sending dudes to the pros. TJ Hockenson is going to be so involved that Iowa has two tight end spots on the depth chart, so he should not only be an important contributor this year, but the obvious heir apparent if Fant leaves after the season.

Running Back
At running back, there is no proven commodity, but they have a three-headed monster that should do well. Ivory Kelly-Martin is listed as the starter, with Toren Young and Mekhi Sargent backing him up. I could see any of the three guys emerging as the top back, but I don't think anybody completely takes over the role to be a true #1 at the position. Young and IKM looked good in limited action last year, and Sargent has been getting great reviews after transferring, but this is more a position group that should be fine. They probably won't be great, and they probably won't be bad; they'll hopefully be good enough.

Offensive Line
The running game will likely be dependent on the performance of the guys up front. The offensive line is led by two sophomore tackles who both started all of last year (although they are both suspsended for the first game) in Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs. I wouldn't say that they were great last year, but considering that it was two freshman that at least held their own, hopes are pretty high for the outside of the offensive line. The interior of the line is a bit of a question mark, but there have been positive reports on Keegan Render at center as being able to play his way into a potential draft pick after this season. This isn't going to be a legendary Iowa offensive line, but as long as the interior can hold up, they should provide more good than bad.

Defensive Line
The defense has the most exciting and most terrifying position groups on the team. The defensive line is stacked. Parker Hesse and Anthony Nelson have extensive experience on the outside with production to match. Matt Nelson and Cedric Lattimore started last year and should only improve from last season. With those four, Iowa should be in great shape up front...

...but let's be real here. This is all about AJ Epenesa. Epenesa rotated in at defensive end last year, and his talent jumps off the screen when you're watching Iowa. His explosiveness is incredible, and he is a mismatch for all but the most elite offensive tackles. He is still raw as he did put himself out of position on occasion so he has some things to refine, but the raw materials are incredibly exciting and all Iowa fans are basically head over heels in love with him already. I'm as guilty of this as anyone, and I make no apologies for it.

Linebackers
On the other end of the spectrum, we have linebacker. Linebacker is not going to be good; it's not that the players don't have talent, but they have about as close to zero experience as is possible in a linebacking corps. They have never started before, and Iowa rarely cycles in linebackers, so their big experience is special teams. Amani Jones is the middle linebacker which makes him the most important guy of the three. He has been getting the most positive reviews, but that may have just been that they were only really confident that he would be one of the starters. Number two is Nick Niemann, who should not be confused with Nick Nemeth as I do not believe he has plans to tag with Drew McIntyre anytime soon. The good news with Niemann is that his brother, Ben, played linebacker for Iowa, and he is supposed to be the better athlete. Ben was solid, so solid+athleticism=pretty darn good? I hope that's the case at least. Getting the last spot is Kristian Welch who nobody knows anything about, but he was good enough to beat out the other guys, at least to start the season. Go Kristian Welch!

Secondary
Secondary could actually be good, but there is no depth, and for the first time in a while, there is no clear shutdown corner as Iowa was spoiled with Desmond King and Josh Jackson these past few years. Instead we have Matt Hankins and Michael Ojemudia. Hankins appeared to edge ahead of Ojemudia at the end of last year, so he's likely what you would consider the number one corner, but both guys have gotten a decent amount of playing time and have the potential to be solid. There is also the possibility that they come out of nowhere like Josh Jackson did last year and become an absolute game changer at the position, but the odds are against that. At safety, Iowa has two returning starters in Jake Gervase and Amani Hooker. The latter showed a lot of potential and could take a big step forward this year. The former got better as the year went on, but I'd be surprised if Iowa got much more than adequacy from him.

Special Teams
Iowa also has many kickers and punters.

Prediction
After doing a look at all of the different position groups, there are a lot of factors to weigh. I think this is a year where Iowa can only slip into a bowl game. That bowl game will be the College Football Playoff Semifinal, where Iowa will win. Don't you see? I lied at the beginning, because Iowa is definitely winning the National Title this year. Bama ain't got shit on the Hawkeyes. 15-0!

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Are The Iowa Hawkeyes Any Good At Football In 2017?

The Iowa Hawkeye football team sits at 4-3. That is not good. It's not terrible, but it's not wowing anybody. Sometimes they look pretty good, yet other times they look pretty bad. So it's time to dig in and figure out if this team is any good.

Offense
Quarterback
Overall, I would say the quarterback position has been a pleasant surprise. Is Nate Stanley good? Eh, I wouldn't go that far, but he is competent, and considering that this is his first real experience, that's a pretty good start. His biggest issue is the deep ball, which has caused my dog much grief as she gets scared when I scream profanities at my television, but even those are getting better. He's not a world beater, but I don't think much more can really be expected from the guy.

Running Back
Akrum Wadley is a super good running back who is badly misused as a bellcow back that is trying to run between the tackles. The outside zone is where he makes his money, as he can stretch a play out, make a hard cut and get up field. Grinding between the tackles, especially with nine guys charging through the line is not a recipe for success. The backup running backs have all looked good as well. It's one of those situations where the guys have played well, but they haven't always been put in a  position to succeed.

Receivers
I'm going to group the wide receivers and tight ends together here. The tight ends have been the stars of the show as both Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson have played very well this year. Yes, there have been some drops, but these are the guys who are finding ways to get open consistently, and I'd like to see more designed plays for both of them.

As for the actual Wide Receivers, I don't think anyone can be anything but ecstatic over the performance of Nick Easley. There were rumors that he looked good in practice, but the fact that he has risen to be Stanley's go-to receiver is pretty incredible. He hasn't been perfect, but let's not get nitpicky. Matt VandeBerg has been fine. I feel like he's still ramping up, and the chemistry that he had with Beathard has not been repeated with Stanley. He's still shown flashes, and I do expect him to play a larger role during the final handful of games. Outside of that, nobody has really stepped up. ISM had his moments, but Brandon Smith has not. Is there anyone else really worth mentioning? These guys are performing well, but Iowa flat out doesn't have a talented enough receiving corps for them to have a big time pass game. That is why teams can continue to stack the box to stop the run, as none of these receivers, nor the quarterback throwing to them are really terrifying.

Offensive Line
Since expectations were fairly low for every position but running back, the offensive line is probably the most disappointing unit from the first half. A major factor in that is injuries. Losing Cole Croston for the year really put a wrench in Iowa's plans, and I'm not sure if Boone Myers has been completely healthy all year long. I think they have done a good job in pass protection as Nate Stanley has had a decent pocket most of the time. The big issue has been the running game where Iowa has not found any way to create consistent holes.

Defense
Defensive Line
The best of Iowa's three defensive units. This is the one area where Iowa has almost too much depth as I constantly want more AJ Epensesa, but like, Parker Hesse is pretty good too. Nelson & Nelson have both been solid on the line, and Bazata continues to be very important without having many flash plays. I was expecting a little more impact from Cedric Lattimore, but this is where we get nitpicky. Iowa has so many guys who flash special traits, but we still see everybody stuffed at the lines. I thought they would have more of an impact in the pass game, but Iowa style dictates that they stay their lane as opposed to always trying to make impact plays.

Linebackers
The linebackers are exactly who we thought they were. Josey Jewell is Iowa's best defender, and my only complaint with him is that he got injured and had to miss a game. Ben Niemann and Bo Bower have both been good, although I am going to be slightly terrified when Ohio State spreads out the field and makes them play in space. Iowa fans had high hopes going into the season, and I think the linebackers have lived up to those expectations.

Secondary
Josh Jackson is probably the most pleasant surprise of any Hawkeye this season, even more than Nick Easley. He has been running amok in the secondary, and he is close to getting crunk ON the field, something only Jovon Johnson and Desmond King have officially done as Iowa players. I think hopes were a little too high for Manny Rugamba, since it was almost entirely based on the single play of him yanking a ball away from a Michigan receiver for an interception. Ojemudia has been solid, but he was more thought of as a third cornerback going into the year, who got bumped up to number two due to Rugamba being hurt.

As for the safeties. Holy shit, Brandon Snyder. I know he is already hurt again, which, uh, yeah, he did just tear his ACL six months ago, but man, when he was in, I felt so much better about the Iowa secondary. Also, Amani Hooker is learning on the fly, but you can already see the improvement. Poor Miles Taylor and Jake Gervase. Together they could make a good safety, but Taylor's instincts just aren't there, and Gervase's athleticism just isn't there. But when Iowa's safeties are healthy, there isn't a huge weakness in this defense.

Coaching Staff
Soooooooooooooooooooooo the coaching staff. Let's start out by saying that Phil Parker has put his defense in a position to succeed, so he's fairly clean on all of this. My only issue is that Iowa has A TON of defensive line talent, but too often on pass plays, we just see four  or more guys charging into offensive linemen without a real plan to get to the quarterback. That really bothers me, but again, it's really tough to give any fault to the defense.

Which brings us to the offense. The good news is that it is better to watch this year than last year. They throw the ball in the middle of the field which is the most hallelujah thing I can imagine after the Greg Davis era. Unfortunately, although the receivers are doing their best, their just isn't enough talent to really depend on them to get open for big plays. This is causing an issue as teams are definitely keying in on the run and blowing up Akrum Wadley before he has a chance to make anything happen. I'd like to see Iowa send some non-wide receivers deep. Get Fant going deep, or put Wadley in the slot and send him deep. Worst case scenario is they protect against Wadley and that opens up a little space for Toren Young. But nobody's going to stop stacking the box until Iowa makes them pay for it.

Before last week's game, Iowa has consistently struggled in the first half, and then put things together in the second half. The good news is that Iowa has been good at halftime adjustments. The bad news is the game planning during the week has not been getting the job done. Iowa moved the ball well to start off last week's game, so hopefully that continues against Minnesota, and I don't know, maybe Iowa will play two good halves of football on offense. It could happen, right?

Luck
You will notice that I didn't bring up Kirk Ferentz in the section above. That's because he more belongs in this section. Because, really, what this Iowa season has come down to so far is just luck. Despite all of the issues they have had, it's not like Iowa is that far off from being 7-0. If Amani Hooker tips the ball against Penn State, if Iowa flips the turnover situation against Michigan State, if Iowa scores early on drives where they dominated to start the game, Iowa is 7-0, and they look just as good as the team that went to the Rose Bowl.

But although they got a bit of luck in the Iowa State game, the ball has not been bouncing their way this season, and that is one of the biggest factors in this season seeming more disappointing than it really is. Overall, the team is playing well, but it's Iowa; they're never going to blow the roof off the place. They're going to fight; they're going to grind. Sometimes they'll have amazing wins, but they are also going to have maddening losses.

So is Iowa any good this year? Yes, they are somewhere between "not very" and "quite" good this year. If their luck continues, it'll be closer to the former, but if it reverses, it might end up closer to the latter. Either way: In Kirk We Trust
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