Penn State Can Still Beat Iowa

Iowa Wrestling has kicked ass this year. In fact, they’ve kicked so much ass that they haven’t even taken down any names, because they’ve filled their days strictly with ass kicking. By any measure, Iowa isn’t just supposed to win the National Championship, they are going to lap their opponents in the process as nobody can match their blend of top-notch firepower and depth. Looking at this with any sort of logic, and the only conclusion is that Iowa ends their decade-long drought and wins it all this season.

But I’m still not ready to count out Penn State.

There’s a reason they have won 8 of the last 9 titles, and that is because they have a tremendous amount of talent, and they always match or exceed expectations at the national tournament. They just don’t have significant letdowns. When the lights shine the brightest, so do Nittany Lion wrestlers. There is nobody that better prepares his team for the national tournament than Cael Sanderson, and that is why Penn State, even in a down year with transfers and injuries, is still a huge threat to win it all this March.

When you look at how their roster compares to the Hawkeyes, things are a lot closer than the media makes them out to be.

125 - Brandon Meredith is borderline to even qualify for the tournament. Any points he provides will be negligible if he does make it. Spencer Lee might put up the most points of any wrestler in the tournament. This is a massive advantage for the Hawkeyes.

133 - Roman Bravo-Young is not a great matchup against Seth Gross, but he’s pushed DeSanto hard in their matches, so I think he could beat anybody at this weight class. DeSanto has been locked in all season against much better competition than RBY, but it’s not too tough to see a path for RBY to finish above the Hawkeye.

141 - Nick Lee might win the National Title. He’s currently ranked second, but Luke Pletcher is not unbeatable, and Lee has dominated everybody put in front of him. He’s not only going to finish high, he’s also going to put up a lot of bonus points. Meanwhile, Murin has the potential to be a low-level All-American, but he’s not getting many bonus points with his style so Penn State is putting up a significant amount more points than Iowa at this weight.

149 - Jarod Verkleren is okay but probably not an All-American. He’s currently ranked 27th since he hasn’t really gotten any good wins outside of splitting with #20 Jimmy Hoffman. Penn State probably has me more scared than I should be, but it’s not like the blood round would be a huge shock. Iowa will definitely get more points from Pat Lugo, but Lugo wrestles a lot of close matches, and it wouldn’t be a shocking fall to see him only be a low-level All-American again.

157 - Brady Berge really seemed to find his groove over the summer wrestling in freestyle tournaments, but he got a bad head injury and has only wrestled one match for Penn State, way back in early December, and hasn’t wrestled since. If healthy, I see him and Kaleb Young as fairly even, but sometimes things don’t match up right for one guy, and the other guy gets a great path. It wouldn’t be too crazy to see Berge at #4 with Young down at like #7 at the end of the tournament.

165 - Vincenzo Joseph and Alex Marinelli are about as even as you can possibly get at 165. Marinelli has the magic potion for Vincenzo, but Joseph is a 3-time NCAA finalist and two-time champion going into his senior year. I think Marinelli gets over the hump and wins it all this year, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if he took an upset and only finished in the 3-5 range while Vincenzo got his third title.

174 - Mark Hall is ranked #1, Michael Kemerer is ranked #2. I do expect to see these guys face each other in the finals, and as much as I love Kemerer, Hall has to be considered the favorite.

184 - Aaron Brooks terrifies me. He’s hanging out around #6 right now, but I don’t see any reason he couldn’t be in the finals as 184 is a fairly weak weight class after Zahid Valencia at number one. Abe Assad has had a lot of close matches. He’s looked very impressive since joining the starting lineup, but it also wouldn’t shock me to see him falter and only make it to the blood round in his first season.

197 - I’m not a big Shakur Rasheed fan. I want to be a Jacob Warner fan, but the guy just hasn’t found consistency. I’ll give the slight edge to Warner since he has been more successful recently but  both guys have shown big potential.

Heavyweight - Seth Nevills hasn’t faced anyone of importance but he has a decent enough pedigree that it’s not crazy to see him as an All-American. Still, Cassioppi will both outplace him and outbonus him at the tournament.

I would say that Penn State has likely finalists at 141, 165, and 174 with possible finalists at 133 and 184. Just looking at those five weights, that’s a lot of points they can put up. I still think Iowa is the favorite, especially since this Hawkeye team is designed to put up at least as many bonus points as Penn State for a change.

Iowa should definitely be favored, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion, so don’t count your chickens before they hatch, Hawkeye fans, especially with Cael Sanderson lurking around.