Penn State Can Still Beat Iowa

Iowa Wrestling has kicked ass this year. In fact, they’ve kicked so much ass that they haven’t even taken down any names, because they’ve filled their days strictly with ass kicking. By any measure, Iowa isn’t just supposed to win the National Championship, they are going to lap their opponents in the process as nobody can match their blend of top-notch firepower and depth. Looking at this with any sort of logic, and the only conclusion is that Iowa ends their decade-long drought and wins it all this season.

But I’m still not ready to count out Penn State.

There’s a reason they have won 8 of the last 9 titles, and that is because they have a tremendous amount of talent, and they always match or exceed expectations at the national tournament. They just don’t have significant letdowns. When the lights shine the brightest, so do Nittany Lion wrestlers. There is nobody that better prepares his team for the national tournament than Cael Sanderson, and that is why Penn State, even in a down year with transfers and injuries, is still a huge threat to win it all this March.

When you look at how their roster compares to the Hawkeyes, things are a lot closer than the media makes them out to be.

125 - Brandon Meredith is borderline to even qualify for the tournament. Any points he provides will be negligible if he does make it. Spencer Lee might put up the most points of any wrestler in the tournament. This is a massive advantage for the Hawkeyes.

133 - Roman Bravo-Young is not a great matchup against Seth Gross, but he’s pushed DeSanto hard in their matches, so I think he could beat anybody at this weight class. DeSanto has been locked in all season against much better competition than RBY, but it’s not too tough to see a path for RBY to finish above the Hawkeye.

141 - Nick Lee might win the National Title. He’s currently ranked second, but Luke Pletcher is not unbeatable, and Lee has dominated everybody put in front of him. He’s not only going to finish high, he’s also going to put up a lot of bonus points. Meanwhile, Murin has the potential to be a low-level All-American, but he’s not getting many bonus points with his style so Penn State is putting up a significant amount more points than Iowa at this weight.

149 - Jarod Verkleren is okay but probably not an All-American. He’s currently ranked 27th since he hasn’t really gotten any good wins outside of splitting with #20 Jimmy Hoffman. Penn State probably has me more scared than I should be, but it’s not like the blood round would be a huge shock. Iowa will definitely get more points from Pat Lugo, but Lugo wrestles a lot of close matches, and it wouldn’t be a shocking fall to see him only be a low-level All-American again.

157 - Brady Berge really seemed to find his groove over the summer wrestling in freestyle tournaments, but he got a bad head injury and has only wrestled one match for Penn State, way back in early December, and hasn’t wrestled since. If healthy, I see him and Kaleb Young as fairly even, but sometimes things don’t match up right for one guy, and the other guy gets a great path. It wouldn’t be too crazy to see Berge at #4 with Young down at like #7 at the end of the tournament.

165 - Vincenzo Joseph and Alex Marinelli are about as even as you can possibly get at 165. Marinelli has the magic potion for Vincenzo, but Joseph is a 3-time NCAA finalist and two-time champion going into his senior year. I think Marinelli gets over the hump and wins it all this year, but it also wouldn’t be shocking if he took an upset and only finished in the 3-5 range while Vincenzo got his third title.

174 - Mark Hall is ranked #1, Michael Kemerer is ranked #2. I do expect to see these guys face each other in the finals, and as much as I love Kemerer, Hall has to be considered the favorite.

184 - Aaron Brooks terrifies me. He’s hanging out around #6 right now, but I don’t see any reason he couldn’t be in the finals as 184 is a fairly weak weight class after Zahid Valencia at number one. Abe Assad has had a lot of close matches. He’s looked very impressive since joining the starting lineup, but it also wouldn’t shock me to see him falter and only make it to the blood round in his first season.

197 - I’m not a big Shakur Rasheed fan. I want to be a Jacob Warner fan, but the guy just hasn’t found consistency. I’ll give the slight edge to Warner since he has been more successful recently but  both guys have shown big potential.

Heavyweight - Seth Nevills hasn’t faced anyone of importance but he has a decent enough pedigree that it’s not crazy to see him as an All-American. Still, Cassioppi will both outplace him and outbonus him at the tournament.

I would say that Penn State has likely finalists at 141, 165, and 174 with possible finalists at 133 and 184. Just looking at those five weights, that’s a lot of points they can put up. I still think Iowa is the favorite, especially since this Hawkeye team is designed to put up at least as many bonus points as Penn State for a change.

Iowa should definitely be favored, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion, so don’t count your chickens before they hatch, Hawkeye fans, especially with Cael Sanderson lurking around.

Alex Marinelli - Iowa's Most Improved Wrestler

It may seem a little insane to take a returning All-American, someone who entered the NCAA Tournament seeded fourth, and a guy who beat the NCAA Champion last year and name him Iowa's most improved wrestler. Most of the time I would agree with you, but it has been an absolute pleasure to see the leaps that Alex Marinelli has made this season for the Iowa Hawkeyes.

To start off, he's undefeated, but his record isn't the impressive part, it's how he's doing it. Last year, he got bonus points in 28% of his matches which is very solid for a redshirt freshman. This year, he is over 71% as only three guys have been able to keep it close and two of those guys are ranked in the top-5 in the nation. Those numbers will drop as the competition gets stiffer during the final month and a half, but he is still a totally different guy this season.

It's not surprising, because the first thing that jumps out at you is how different he looks. It is clear that he is much bigger this year than he was last year, and that increase in strength has definitely helped him.

The biggest way this has helped seems to be confidence as he is far more aggressive this year. He is really earning the nickname of "The Bull" as he is nonstop charging his opponents with pressure and takedowns, and he is simply breaking people. One of the best examples was this past Friday against Illinois. He squared off with former Hawkeye, Joey Gunther, and even though he wasn't scoring a ton of points, he kept the pressure on. Gunther got called for stalling. Then again. Then another one. Then one more. And finally, a fifth stalling call which is an automatic disqualification. Marinelli broke his opponent.

Finally, his technique has greatly improved. He is an absolute hammer on top, and that's leading to him turning guys over for big points and pins. He has also improved on bottom, which was most notably seen in his win over #3 Evan Wick. Last year, Wick dominated Marinelli on top which led him to a major decision victory at the NCAA Tournament. This year, Marinelli was able to get out from bottom, and he was able to win on his feet to give him a Midlands Championship.

Alex Marinelli still has a ton of work to do. He's likely got a rematch with Evan Wick, and, if he can win that, a match with two-time defending National Champion, Vincenzo Joseph, and that only gets him through the Big Tens. Two weeks, he'll have to do it all over again against those guys as well as some other tough challengers. Last year, Marinelli made the semifinals before dropping three straight matches. This year, I see a different guy, and although it's impossible to call him the favorite over a guy who is on pace to win four national championships in Joseph, I'm not counting out Marinelli. Win or lose, anyone who is brave enough to get in the way of The Bull is sure to get the horns.

The Top 5 USA Freestyle Wrestlers at 74 KG

I went to the UWW Freestyle World Cup in Iowa City, and it was awesome. In fact, it got me so amped up that I'm going to be coming at you with a bunch of wrestling content. I'm ranking the top five guys at every weight class, and today we move on to 74 KG (approximately 163 pounds). Let's get to it.

5. Alex Marinelli
I have my Hawkeye Homer glasses on, but I still don't see a way for Marinelli to compete with the best guys at this weight. I do think he showed a lot of improvement in the folkstyle world this past season, so hopefully he puts together a couple of wins and keeps that wrestling momentum going into next season for Iowa.

4. Vincenzo Joseph
Joseph hasn't really done much at the freestyle level, but he is a two-time defending NCAA Champion, and that's got to count for something. I'm not sure how strong his interest is at this point in his career, but he definitely has the talent if he dedicates himself to a transition down the line.

3. Nazar Kulchytskyy
Nazar is crafty enough to be an alternate, but not really a threat to challenge for the top spot. He's a very good wrestler, but if everything breaks right, he gets tech'd twice by the man at the top of this list.

2. Isaiah Martinez
Isaiah Martinez was a guy who I had the highest of hopes for when it came to his potential. After his undefeated freshman season, I thought he would go all four years undefeated. He was so totally overwhelming and awesome that I just couldn't see anybody beating him. He ended up getting beat in his sophomore year, and did not win a national title in either his junior or senior years. He just never really seemed to get better, and his underhook offense got figured out by the best wrestlers out there. Even against lesser competition, he didn't dominate like he did early in his career. And now he is going to the international world where I just can't see him giving the top guy a run for his money. I-Mar is still a physical freak, and I could still see an amazing MMA career if he chooses to go down that path.

1. Jordan Burroughs
Still the King. He bounced back from a disappointing Olympics in 2016 to win yet another World Title in 2017. He's older, not quite as explosive, but definitely craftier in his attacks. He's the man. Thinking anything else would be ridiculous. He had the single best moment of the World Cup when he managed a pin against Azerbaijan in the finals. He won't be able to do this forever, so appreciate it while we still can. He's still awesome, and ain't nobody from the USA taking his spot at the top of this weight class.

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