How to Fix the Cubs - Part 3

When we left off yesterday, we set up a situation where Paul DePodesta is very excited to be working for the Cubs after Jim Hendry listened to Hott Joe and cleared out a ton of money. After the moves that we went through yesterday, let's check out how much money (estimate) we save going into 2011.

Kousuke Fukudome - $1.33 million in 2010, $13.5 million in 2011
Ted Lilly - $4 million in 2010
Derrek Lee - $4.33 million in 2010
Carlos Silva - $3.83 million in 2010, $6 million in 2011
Switching from Lou Piniella to Ryne Sandberg - $2 million

When all of this is added up, the Cubs save about $35 million. All I can say is holy shit, I did an awesome job clearing up some cash. Unfortunately, before we can start going after new guys, we have to take care of the guys who are already here. Let's have a quick run through the Cubs roster.

1. Returning Players in need of contracts - First off, we need to take care of our own. The guys who are up for arbitration are going to be estimates. If something seems grossly out of whack or I miss a player who is due a big raise, let me know.
A. Ryan Theriot - Theriot makes $2.6 million this season after losing his arbitration case where he was looking for $3.4 million. He is going to be due a raise, and for simplicity's sake, we'll hope that he'll accept a $2 million bump in salary to put him up to $4.6 million for 2011.
B. Carlos Marmol - He was paid $2.125 million in 2010, so let's give him a realistic bump up to $5 million since he's a closer and that gets overvalued in arbitration cases. Since, we just under $35 million in savings, this will take care of that rounding off.
C. Mike Fontenot - We'll bump him up $1 million, so he's at about $2 million.
D. Sean Marshall - A guy that gets the $.5 million bump to be at around $1.5 million.
E. Tom Gorzelanny - This is where things get interesting, and we actually try to lock up an arbitration eligible player. Gorzelanny will be signed to a four year, $16 million deal, so we can buy out his arbitration years and a couple free agent years. Gorzelanny will be part of the rotation so this type of investment seems worthwhile. Salary wise, we'll structure it 3, 4, 4, and 5 million so it's only about a $2 million raise for 2011. I have to admit that Gorzelanny is my favorite Cub, so much so that I'm going to put an image of him up, mostly just to spice up the blog:

F. Geovany Soto - He's at about a half million right now. I'm nearly positive he'll be an arbitration eligible player and bump him up to $3.5 million, meaning we spend an extra $3 million on him.

2. Players Already Under Contract - I'm just going to quickly go over any changes in salary to players that are already under contract:
A. Aramis Ramirez - Save $1 million.
B. Ryan Dempster - Gets $1 million raise.
C. Marlon Byrd - Gets $2.5 million raise.
D. John Grabow - Gets $2 million raise. This was painful to write. Not only am I stuck with John Grabow for another year, but he's getting a huge raise too, nice one Hendry.

3. It's not you, it's me - These are the players that will not be coming back for the 2011 Cubs.
A. Xavier Nady - $3.3 million that we don't have to worry about for 2011. I'll take that money and run.
B. Jeff Baker - When it comes to Fontenot and Baker, you can have one or the other, but there's no need for both. Baker's OBP is under .300 this year, so it was nice knowing you, but goodbye.
C. Koyie Hill - Not like it's going to provide us much savings, but I'll take $.7 million, and invest it in somebody that doesn't make me feel awful if they're forced to take over full-time catching duties. I'll gladly offer him a minor league deal though.
D. Angel Guzman - Stick a fork in him, he's done.
E. Bobby Howry - Only costing us the minimum this year, but I'll let the young guys in the system replace him in the bullpen, no need to overpay middle relief.

4. The Dirt Cheap - If I haven't mentioned a Cubs player by now, it means that they're dirt cheap, and we'll bring them back, because they'll be making the minimum and if they suck, they're still eligible to go to the minors.

5. Recap - We started off with $35 million to work with, let's break down what we have left:
A. We spent $11.5 million on guys that needed new contracts.
B. We gave $4.5 million in raises to players already under contract.
C. We save $5.5 million on people who we will not be bringing back for 2011.
D. Overall we are left with approximately $24.5 million from our savings. This doesn't seem like much until we also factor in that we no longer have to pay Derrek Lee or Ted Lilly since their contracts were up which were savings that were not yet factored in. Lee makes $13 million, and Lilly makes $12 million for 2010, meaning that we have $49.5 million to spend without raising payroll for 2011.

I realize this article has been a lot of housekeeping, but I promise that tomorrow will lead to an exciting conclusion for how the Cubs can be awesome in 2011. And, not to brag or anything, but you are going to be wowed when you see how genius my ideas are and how it actually is possible for the Cubs to be successful in 2011.

-Joe

P.S. I'm sure you have all seen this by now, but we have some very sad news regarding #1 Prime Time League pick, Brennan Cougill as he has been ruled ineligible for this upcoming basketball season. On the bright side, I'm picking Kirkwood to win the JuCo National Title.

P.P.S. Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts, which is an awesome website to find out just about anything you would want to know about baseball contracts. This would just be unintelligent babbling with no real hard facts without the help of that site.

P.P.P.S. Is it sad that I'm genuinely nervous about what goes down at midnight tonight? I know it is, because LeBron is probably taking at least a week before he makes a decision. But if the Bulls sign Joe Johnson at 12:01, I'm stabbing someone.

How To Fix the Cubs - Part 2

Where we last left off, I gave up a lot of talent on the Cubs without great returns, but the money saved is going to be important to the rebuild effort. I would also like to point out that my idea of Ted Lilly to the Mets was reported by Joel Sherman of the New York Post if they fail to get Cliff Lee. So props to me. But the season is over and the Cubs did poorly in 2010; let's get into the offseason.

1. The New Regime - As much as he comes across as a great guy, Jim Hendry has to go. He gave out a lot of bad contracts, and that is why I couldn't clear more space. Honestly, there's talent on this team, but realistically, I'm not going to get much talent back if I'm asking them to take on some pretty bad contracts. Luckily, the Mets have boatloads of cash, so they really saved us there. Jim Hendry deserves credit in having great relationships throughout the game, and it has helped foster some very good trades that he has made in the past. Honestly, I'd love to keep him around in a complementary role, but he can't be the head guy anymore. Let's look at the candidates, where we have the unrealistic, the realistic, and the idea that's so crazy it might just work.

A. The Unrealistic - I want to get this out of the way before Cubs fans start thinking it's a possibility, because it's not. Billy Beane will not be joining the Cubs. Beane likes the small market, and he has a very good relationship with the owner. He loves being on the coast where he can relax a little bit, and I don't think it's reasonable to think the Cubs can lure him away from that. Beane has stated that his dream job would be to be a general manager in the English Premier League, so let's just move on.

B. The Realistic - When I first started thinking about how to rebuild the Cubs, this guy's name immediately came to my mind as the perfect candidate for the job. Then I read Will Carroll's excellent look at the Top 10 General Manager candidates who have never held that position. He was talking to a current GM about one of the candidates where the GM stated, "I don't see him as someone that will get looked at by someone like (Cubs owner) Tom Ricketts, someone who'd want a Moneyball guy." Well, we're not getting Billy Beane, but we could get the next best thing in Paul DePodesta. DePodesta is currently in the Padres front office, and is proving that he is way smarter than I am because somehow the Padres are good this year. DePodesta had the GM job with the Dodgers back in 2004-2005, but was fired because their owner is a moron. I cannot think of another example of a GM only getting two years to prove himself. He actually built a good team in 2004, but they fell off in 2005 due to injuries, and the team that he had built for 2006 made the playoffs, just under a different general manager. This is about as perfect of a match that you can find, and would put me back into full-fledged fandom if they hired him.

C. It's so crazy it might just work - I wish I could take credit for this idea, because it is so monumentally awesome that it nearly made me shit my pants. Credit again goes to Will Carroll's review of top GM candidates on Baseball Prospectus. The Cubs could make a play at a young guy who is already a top GM. Well, it'd basically be impossible to steal a guy away from another baseball team, so this isn't a well-thought out idea. Au contraire, my friend, because we would not be stealing him from another baseball team, we'd take him from a basketball team. That's right, the Cubs could pursue Sam Presti of the Oklahoma City Thunder. Since me and Sam are good friends (we talked like three times during my Seattle days), I could probably help convince him to come to Chicago to help the Bulls get LeBron, er, rebuild the Cubs. Honestly, this idea is batshit insane, but it's also awesome. I just wanted to present it to everyone, so we'd have an idea of all of our options.

When looking at the options, and since I want this to be a realistic look at how the Cubs could rebuild, there is only one choice that makes sense for the Cubs.
The Chicago Cubs fire General Manager Jim Hendry and hire Paul DePodesta to a four year contract to be the new General Manager.

Now that we have our GM, it's time to figure out who's going to lead our troops on the field.

2. Time for a change - Sorry, Lou, but we're not renewing your contract. You're not worth the money to me. For some reason, I can only find the salaries for 2007 for baseball managers, but that will be good enough for this exercise. Lou is making $3.5 million. The lowest is $500,000, and the median is about $1 million.

This one is actually fairly easy since the Cubs have been grooming him to take over the job for quite a few years. Ryne Sandberg makes sense on a lot of different levels. He's paid his dues managing in the minors, the Ricketts are Cubs fans meaning that they'd love to have Sandberg managing, and as long as he doesn't go Dusty Baker on us, he should be able to be a fine manager. I will offer him a four year deal worth $6 million which should probably put him above average for managers, but he has no managing experience in the majors so he doesn't need Joe Torre or even Tony LaRussa money.
The Chicago Cubs choose not to exercise their option on Manager Lou Piniella and hire Triple-A Manager, Ryne Sandberg as Manager.

That's all I've got for today, but tomorrow I'll be going into how all of this cash savings is actually going to lead to the Cubs being an exciting and successful team for 2011.

-Joe

P.S. AFLAC tried to get me to interview for a job with them, I told them I wasn't interested. I am the most comfortable unemployed person on the planet.

How to Fix the Cubs - Part 1

The Cubs suck. They're an old, overpaid, boring team, and there's very little to like about the entire organization. They have some unmovable contracts, some tough to move contracts, and a lot of shitty players. Still, I think I could get them back in the race soon. Here is how I would do it (all moves will be put in bold):

1. Addition by subtraction - They need to try to find a way to get rid of just about any player that other teams are interested in. The problem is, nobody has much interest in their players, but there are ways to get creative to possibly dump some guys.

A. Try to package Fukudome with Ted Lilly in a trade; I feel like there are opportunities with the Tigers or Angels, but the perfect fit for this deal is the Mets. Not only do the Mets desperately need the starting pitching help, but Fukudome would actually be a solid contributor for them as they need the outfield help and could use him for his marketability towards the Japanese fans. Now, since we're dumping Fukudome on them, we either have to take back a ton of money or not get much in the way of value in return. The Mets are filthy rich, so we're going to let them deal with taking on the money, and we'll take a couple low level prospects. I would look at a guy like Brad Holt who has been atrocious this year with an ERA over 10, but a guy with good velocity that might be effective in the bullpen. Also, if we could get Ugueth's kid Juan Urbina, that'd be a solid haul. Since I'm an idealist, I'll say the Cubs throw in $3 million and get both of them.
The Chicago Cubs trade Ted Lilly and Kosuke Fukudome and $3 million to the New York Mets for minor league prospects Brad Holt and Juan Urbina.

B. Derrek Lee has got to go. As long as Lee picks it up a little bit, the Cubs should be able to get something for him, and that should be good enough. This is something that may have to wait for an injury to a team in the playoff race. I'd like to be super optimistic and say Albert Pujols goes down to a fractured labia, but I need to be slightly more realistic. Is it really that hard to imagine a world where Troy Glaus gets hurt for the Braves? I think not. So the Braves make a deal for Derrek Lee by giving up Cody Johnson, a former first round pick who can't make contact to save his life, but he's got light-tower power. Chances of him figuring it out are minimal, but at least he'll be fun to watch in the high minors.
The Chicago Cubs trade Derrek Lee to the Atlanta Braves for minor league prospect Cody Johnson.

C. Try our best to get something for Carlos Silva. This is something that may happen in the offseason, but still has potential for before the trade deadline or even in August since I don't think anybody will claim him on waivers for fear of having to take his whole contract. I can't think of a contender that would take a chance on Carlos Silva, because if they're contending, they're probably a well run team (or already stacked with pitching like the Giants). So why would a non-contending team trade for Carlos Silva? To protect young arms. And who has the most valuable young arm out there? The Washington Nationals. They signed Jason Marquis just so he could suck up innings and for the first time in his career, he's failed. The Cubs can throw in the $5.5 million that the Mariners are giving them for next year which means the Nationals would only be on the hook for two months of his salary this year and $6 million the following year. That definitely has value for them. They're not going to give up their future for it, but at least the Cubs can scrounge up something. How about A.J. Morris who was the ace of Kansas State's staff in 2009, and is doing alright in High-A right now. That seems reasonable.
The Chicago Cubs trade Carlos Silva and $5.5 million to the Washington Nationals for minor league prospect A.J. Morris.

2. These guys aren't going anywhere - There are some guys that Cubs fans are probably wondering why they are still on my hypotethical Cubs team. It basically means that nobody would want these guys, or that this is the worst possible moment to trade them off.

A. Alfonso Soriano - Nobody is taking that contract, and he can be a good outfielder for the Cubs. He's not an All-Star, but he's above average and since he's an athletic guy, he should be able to at least be near average through the remainder of his contract.

B. Carlos Zambrano - Although the contract isn't completely unmovable, it'd be pretty tough to move and just about impossible right now. If the Cubs move him now, they'll have to swallow a lot of that contract and it will be counter productive. Zambrano is not going to go back to being a world beater, but he can be a solid starter. Piniella is probably gone after this year so his problems with him shouldn't be a big deal. Plus in my plan, Z will be happy to know that he's a part of the starting rotation. I'm not counting Z out yet, so he's staying with the Cubs.

C. Aramis Ramirez - The good news about A-Ram is he's done this before. He looked like an absolute stud when he was 23 and destroyed the ball for the Pirates, then he had a God awful age-24 season. Is it more dangerous when he's 32 going on 33? Of course it is, but he was fantastic in 2009 when he was healthy. He has the ability to provide a goood on-base percentage while slugging near .500. He's only guaranteed to be under contract through 2011, so if he sucks again, the Cubs can pay him $2 million and part ways. I still think he'll bounce back.

As a recap, here is what the 2010 Cubs starters (I'm not worried about the bench and bullpen) will look like after these trades have been made.

Starting Position Players
C - Geovanny Soto
1B - Xavier Nady
2B - Ryan Theriot
3B - Aramis Ramirez
SS - Starlin Castro
LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Marlon Byrd
RF - Tyler Colvin

Starting Pitchers
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Randy Wells
3. Tom Gorzelanny
4. Carlos Zambrano
5. Thomas Diamond/Andrew Cashner

Everything is pretty simple outside of the fifth starter where I'd like Diamond and Cashner to piggyback each other and pitch about four innings each every fifth day. Diamond is coming back from Tommy John surgery and Cashner is a young power arm, so keeping their innings somewhat down would probably be a good call. They both have a chance of being a big part of the future.

I'm going to stop right there. Tomorrow, I'll I talk about what the Cubs need to do in the offseason to be successful.

-Joe

P.S. Here's a crazy Iowa State video:

NBA Draft - A Quick Review

Alright, here is a quick rundown of my thoughts on the NBA Draft.

First off, Bulls getting rid of Hinrich is a very good maneuver for the team. At the same time, it concerns me. I would have rather seen Deng traded away, because a Deng trade would mean the Bulls were EXTREMELY confident they could get LeBron. A Hinrich trade points in the direction that they are going to take a hard look at Joe Johnson. All of the advanced statistics point to this being a bad move for the team. Since I watch very little NBA basketball that doesn't involve the Bulls, I don't have a great read on Johnson outside of the entire Hawks team playing awful in the playoffs. Obviously, the number one combination is LeBron and Bosh. I still think Deng is a tradeable asset, because compared to most players of his caliber, his contract is not bad. The other thing the Bulls have going for them is that there are going to be teams that are unable to lure a big free agent, meaning they'll have plenty of cap space to take on Deng's contract and it'll be a positive step for the team. If they're able to pull off that trade, I wouldn't mind the Bulls reacquiring John Salmons to play the two guard, but I'd rather see them try to trade for a good defensive two guard, someone like Thabo Sefolosha (who Sam Presti will not be handing over to us).

I wouldn't say this about a college player, since it would just be mean, but will someone teach Evan Turner English? I can't understand a word he says. I'm going to predict bust based strictly off that.

I really liked every pick that Oklahoma City was related to. Before the draft, they traded up in the draft while taking on about $2 million in salary, but getting a useful shooter in Daequan Cook. They needed a solid big man, not a game changer, but a good defender who is competent on offense, and they were able to trade up for Cole Aldrich. They traded away three picks, and two of the players were guys that I loved in this draft, in Craig Brackins and Eric Bledsoe. They got a future number one as well, which is nothing new, because Presti constantly trades for future number one picks. Plus, in the second round, they drafted some guy named Magnum Rolle; he was immediately traded, which was the last of their six draft related trades. God, I love Sam Presti. It's a shame the Bulls are going to be running out a lineup of Bosh, Noah, LeBron, me, and Rose meaning they have the next five NBA titles locked up. (Isn't it scary to think that they really could put me at the two and still dominate everyone?)

The Jazz took Gordon Hayward and the Celtics took Luke Harangody; I don't even need to comment on that.

Devan Bawinkel and Club Trillion's Mark Titus are both still available. I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.

ESPN's draft coverage was BRUTAL. I only made it to pick 23 before I had to turn it off, because it was unbearable. Why could Jon Barry not understand that when trades happen, it means the pick is actually being made for a different team. Somehow, he understood that the Bulls traded away Hinrich and needed a two guard, but couldn't understand that their pick was also in that trade meaning that they would not be drafting a shooting guard. Jay Bilas was alright, everybody else could have been replaced by the ladies from Sex and the City.

In my head, this was going to be a shorter post, but I got to ranting.

-Joe

P.S. Quick picks for the fights this weekend: Fedor by knockout, Cyborg by TKO, Cung Le by TKO, and Josh Thomson by decision.

P.P.S. I can't wait to use the term "Getting my dode slarved":

The Best Movie You'll See This Summer

This past weekend, I partied hard and probably hooked up with a thoroughbred dimepiece or two (I say probably, because I was drunk and there's no way I can remember everything). Still, these things paled in comparison to the highlight of the weekend when I went to see the best movie of the summer on Friday afternoon.

If you've got half a brain, you already know what movie I am referring to, but for those uneducated few, I will let you know that I saw a badass action movie, and I'm definitely not referring to the Karate Kid. That movie's for fruit booties. I saw a man's film, The A-Team.

For anyone familiar with the show, you know what to expect, a bunch of explosions, a total lack of a love story, and the A-Team kicking ass. This movie does not disappoint. Is it going to get Oscar considerations? No, but that's just because the Academy doesn't like movies that are this awesome. There are no outstanding acting performances, but the four main characters all perform their roles well enough which is all that I require. Jessica Biel is in the movie, and she could probably be replaced by any partially trained, mildly retarded dog, but that's not a shocker.

The movie isn't going to surprise you in any way, but this movie had one goal, to be a guy's movie that entertains. In that regard, it succeeds. Do you have to turn your brain off a little bit? Of course you do, but if you're looking to have a good time at the theaters, there is no more of a sure thing than The A-Team.

And if you don't like this movie, you lack testicles.

-Joe

P.S. The only movie that stands a chance of being as good as this movie is The Expendables. That movie could so manly that just by watching it, it might reverse any manscaping I have done throughout my life. Now that's manly.

Quick Thoughts: Sports Edition

Is it bad that I have no clue when the World Cup starts? I know it's soon, because there's been a lot of hype about it lately. But I usually rely on ESPN having a countdown when I watch it, but I don't have cable at my place so I've avoided that. I'm not a soccer fan at all, but I do have fond memories of the last World Cup. I remember going to Omaha for the College World Series and skipping the day game to go to a church that had kind of become a bar and watching the World Cup on a 13 inch TV with my buddies and a bunch of soccer hooligans who chose to wear the American Flag instead of t-shirts. Now that's a fashion statement I can get behind.

I have grown up rooting for Chicago sports teams, but as much fun as it would be, I really can't claim to be a Blackhawks fan. If you asked me who my favorite team is, I'd probably say the Blackhawks. But if you asked me who my favorite player on the team is, I'd probably say Jeremy Roenick. I guess that I wish the Blackhawks good luck, but unless it goes to a Game 7, I'm probably not going to see a minute of the games.

Speaking of Chicago sports teams, how fucked are the Cubs? Really fucked? Extremely fucked? Unbelievably fucked? If everything broke right for them, maybe (and I stress maybe) they could be competitive in 2013, but they've got a lot of old guys with expensive contracts and the farm system is okay on pitching and bare when it comes to hitting. I liked Josh Vitters going into the season, but he's got the Corey Patterson approach of "If the pitcher is going to go to all the trouble of throwing a ball near the plate, I should at least have the common decency to swing at it." Their only hope is that the rest of the division sucks, and maybe an 83-85 win season can win the division.

How bad is it that I'm more excited for Iowa basketball than I am for Iowa football? Maybe this offseason is starting to wear on me, but the more I think about the football team this year, the more I've convinced myself that this year could be a massive letdown. The schedule is set up nearly perfectly for them, but it's got a lot of games where the Hawks could slip up. Going on the road for a night game early in the season just seems like a really bad idea. Wisconsin, Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan State are all at home, but this isn't the same Hawkeye team that dominated at Kinnick. Plus, road games against Michigan and Northwestern are still very scary for this squad.

But then I get to thinking more. Iowa dominated Arizona a lot worse than the score showed, and the Pac-10 is weak as shit. Iowa dominated Penn State and Wisconsin last year on the road, and although Wisconsin returns a lot of guys, Scott Tolzien does not put any fear in me. We beat Michigan State and took Ohio State to overtime with a backup QB, and Iowa's D-Line may make Terrelle Pryor quit football. Northwestern's a bunch of ass clowns who hurt a US hero, Ricky Stanzi, so he will no doubt get revenge on those pussies. And Michigan may have a Bud Kilmer moment sometime this season and try to play without a coach. Yes, it worked with with Lance Harbor coaching the team, but Tate Forcier is no Lance Harbor, and Denard Robinson is no Jonathan Moxon (During the James Vandenberg era at Iowa, I probably heard "Mox is a fox" about 375 times).

Have a great weekend everybody, and I'll be back in D-Port late Wednesday, and I'll be in town the following two weekends. Hit me up if you want to party.

-Joe

P.S. Don't even try to take off La Parka's mask. This dude's just lucky he didn't have a chair.

For your health!