Is This Mitch Trubisky's Breakout Year?

As the world's number one Mitch Trubisky supporter as evidenced here, here, here, here, and here, I felt it was about time to weigh in on what to expect from the future hall-of-famer as he embarks on his second professional season. It is a weird feeling for Bears fans, because for the first time since Sexy Rexy was throwing it deep every chance he got, there is actually a buzz about this team, and this may be the first time ever where that buzz is seriously centered around the offense.

With an unbiased opinion, it's hard to say that Trubisky was an overwhelming success in his rookie year. Still, there were some mitigating factors working against him as John Fox and Dowell Loggains coached what was likely the most boring offense in the NFL. It makes sense as the dowel is easily the most boring piece when building IKEA furniture. Trubisky was consistently throwing behind schedule which made his job as a rookie nearly impossible. It didn't help that the Bears best receiver last year was...um, Kendall Wright. And that's bad enough, but Kendall Wright was #1 by a WIDE margin. He had nearly twice as many yards as number two on the list, Josh Bellamy, and Wright still ended up with only 614 receiving yards. This was not a recipe for success.

Although as all of us true football guys know, stats are for losers, I did find an interesting article on Football Outsiders this week that went over quarterback success on a variety of routes. Here is where Mitch Trubisky ranks out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks on each route:

Curl - 35th
Out - 25th
Dig - 8th
Slant - 18th
Drag - 8th
Fly - 29th
Screen - 20th
Post - 9th
Comeback - 33rd
Broken Play - 22nd
Fade - 17th
Seam - 23rd

Now the first thing you will realize is that last year was not a rousing success. His highest finish is eighth best, and he was dead last at the curl route as well as very low in some other spots. The most interesting thing I noticed is that Trubisky had the most success on routes breaking into the middle of the field and struggled when throwing to the outside.

A huge positive to Trubisky having success in the middle of the field is that it confirms something that I suspected when watching him, and that he is able to see the field well. There are a whole lot more bodies around for those in-breaking routes, and Trubisky is able to diagnose and get yards over the middle of the field. He was the literal worst with curl routes, but I think it's fair to assume that part of the blame goes to his receiving targets.

Speaking of awful receivers, I can't totally ignore that he struggled to the routes that broke to the outside. I would say that this is a little concerning as these are generally tougher physical throws to make accurately, but this may be another case of his receivers not giving him a whole lot to work with. It may also be the lack of chemistry built with those receivers, especially since Mike Glennon was getting first team reps during the offseason and even for the first month of the season. It's something to keep an eye on, but it's a little early to be worried about it.

The biggest positive out of all of this is that there is hope on the horizon when it comes to the Bears coaching staff. With new head coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich, this offense will not only be interesting but is actually getting people excited. This is the reason for all of the buzz around the Bears this season, because if they still had the same coaching staff, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and the epic return of Kevin White wouldn't matter (and maybe that last one still won't matter). With the added weapons and offensive minds that will play to Trubisky's strengths, this offense has everything it needs to put up points.

Now it's time for Trubisky to deliver.

Reviewing My Fantasy Football Draft - Part 2

My latest fantasy football draft happened Monday night. For the uninformed, it is part of a three sport keeper league with baseball and basketball, and you can trade between sports. I am an impatient person, so I am always wheeling and dealing, and this draft would be no different, as I moved up from 10 to the top overall pick a half hour before the draft. Was it a good deal? Well, we'll get to the details in the post today as I break down the middle five rounds of the draft.

Round 6
61 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB LeGarrette Blount NE
62 Geriatric All Stars  QB Ben Roethlisberger Pit
63 Wegher Bombs RB Isaiah Crowell Cle
64 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  WR Mike Wallace Min
65 Run And Hyde WR Martavis Bryant Pit
66 Hot Joel QB Tony Romo Dal
67 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman QB Matt Ryan Atl
68 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Brandin Cooks NO
69 Graham Cracker RB Ameer Abdullah Det
70 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Ryan Mathews Phi
71 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  RB Tevin Coleman Atl
72 Wegher Bombs WR Allen Robinson Jac

Keepers: Brandin Cooks

Best Pick: Ameer Abdullah
I don’t see a way that Abdullah isn’t the Lions top running back this year. He’s just more talented than Joique Bell. He can do everything, and Joique Bell is already hurt. I could see them shying away from goal line carries, but he’s such a threat in the passing game that I think his receiving and rushing stats will counter balance a possible lack of touchdowns.

Worst Pick: Martavis Bryant
If he wasn’t suspended for four games, I think this is a reasonable spot to take him, but he is suspended for four games, and then he’s going to have to ramp up to get involved in the offense the first few weeks. I don’t think the coaching staff looks fondly on guys who get suspended, so it’s not like they’ll have extra motivation to get him involved. He’s a receiving threat, but for some reason I doubt he is going to eclipse Antonio Brown as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target.

My Picks: Isaiah Crowell and Allen Robinson
I like Crowell as a running back. The Browns trading away Terrance West made me like Crowell more. The fact that Duke Johnson is struggling with concussions is a reason for me to like him even more. Even if Duke Johnson gets involved, Crowell is going to be the bruising half of the combo, so he’s going to be the guy getting the goal line carries. Early on, he should be great, and if he fades later in the season, that’s when I’ve got Bell and Gurley to take over the running back duties.

Allen Robinson is getting so much hype that it’s getting a little out of control. Still, the guy is a physical marvel as the only guy who tested with more athleticism than him in the last ten years has been Calvin Johnson. I also don’t mind Bortles as a quarterback. People always want to jump to conclusions on rookies, but there are so many aspects of how prospects grow and develop, and the biggest key in that development is time. Bortles will be given the time, and with Robinson, he has a weapon that many people expect to have a breakout year. I hope those people are right.

Round 7
73 Deez Nuts QB Eli Manning NYG
74 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  WR Charles Johnson Min
75 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB C.J. Spiller NO
76 Graham Cracker RB Giovani Bernard Cin
77 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks TE Greg Olsen Car
78 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Darren McFadden Dal
79 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Jeremy Hill Cin
80 Run And Hyde WR John Brown Ari
81 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  WR Larry Fitzgerald Ari
82 Run And Hyde TE Jordan Cameron Mia
83 Geriatric All Stars  WR Steve Smith Sr. Bal
84 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Alfred Blue Hou

Keepers: Jeremy Hill, which almost makes up for the Cam Newton keeper.

Best Pick: Giovani Bernard
Remember going into last year when Giovani Bernard was a second round pick? He was good, and people expected big things. But last year he struggled with injuries and lost his job to Jeremy Hill. That’s not as good, but he’s still a good back, and if he’s healthy, the Bengals are going to find ways to get him involved, especially since he is much more versatile than the one-dimensional Hill (but his one-dimension is very, very good).

Worst Pick: Darren McFadden
In what universe is Darren McFadden a good idea? He is losing the starting battle at running back for the Cowboys to Joseph Randle. Randle is so unimpressive himself that they traded for Christine Michel. So it is going to take Randle getting hurt, Michel not impressing at all, and McFadden actually staying healthy enough to take advantage of Dallas’s offensive line. I don’t believe that we live that universe, so I would not have made that pick.

My Pick: None
I traded my seventh round football pick for Max Scherzer right before he started shitting the bed in every one of his starts. So, hooray me.

Round 8
85 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Duke Johnson Cle
86 Geriatric All Stars  WR Eric Decker NYJ
87 Wegher Bombs WR Kendall Wright Ten
88 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  RB Tre Mason StL
89 Run And Hyde WR DeVante Parker Mia
90 Hot Joel TE Martellus Bennett Chi
91 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Knile Davis KC
92 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Marques Colston NO
93 Graham Cracker WR Devin Funchess Car
94 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Mike Evans TB
95 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  RB David Johnson Ari
96 Wegher Bombs QB Russell Wilson Sea

Keepers: Russell Wilson and Mike Evans

Best Pick: Martellus Bennett
I don’t think it would be crazy to expect Martellus Bennett to take another step forward and be a top three tight end this year. John Fox is a fairly conservative coach which means his offenses have usually maximized the production of the tight end. Of course there was Julius Thomas last year, but Martellus Bennet has the potential to be the next Wesley Walls, and that dude was no joke.

Worst Pick: Knile Davis
He’s a backup, and he’s not all that good. If I was looking for a running back to take a flyer on, there were about ten guys I would have taken before considering Davis.

My Picks: Kendall Wright and Russell Wilson
I am a huge fan of Kendall Wright. Like, I understand Emmanuel Sanders put up big numbers last year, but I think Kendall Wright could have definitely done that in the right offense; he just hasn’t been in the right offense. I think that begins to change this year, as Kendall Wright would have been an ideal target for Marcus Mariota’s skillset at Oregon, and I think those two will have a lot of fun carving up defenses this year. I think he puts up 1000 yards this year.

Russell Wilson was never the quarterback I wanted during the draft last year. I don’t even think I put him on my list of draftable players. But he kept falling and falling. Still, I had no intentions of taking him. Who did I want instead? My plans were Josh Gordon, who got taken two picks before mine, and Kyle Rudolph, who got taken one pick before mine. So I was stuck with Russell Wilson. And now I’m thinking that’s pretty cool. He’s got a brand new tight end, and they actively made their offensive line worse, so there is the likelihood that they will be forced to pass more. Russell Wilson is now my main man.

Round 9
97 Deez Nuts RB Bishop Sankey Ten
98 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  QB Matthew Stafford Det
99 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Eddie Royal Chi
100 Graham Cracker RB Danny Woodhead SD
101 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB DeAngelo Williams Pit
102 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman TE Dwayne Allen Ind
103 Hot Joel RB Devonta Freeman Atl
104 Run And Hyde D/ST Seahawks D/ST Sea
105 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  QB Philip Rivers SD
106 Deez Nuts WR Markus Wheaton Pit
107 Geriatric All Stars  TE Jason Witten Dal
108 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable QB Sam Bradford Phi

Best Pick: Philip Rivers
I don’t really understand what separates Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and Tony Romo where they are Round 6 guys, and Rivers goes three rounds later. I guess they have elite #1 wide receivers, but San Diego has slowly gotten more and more talent around Rivers, especially with upgrades to the offensive line. He was hot fire at the beginning of last year, and I wouldn’t bet against him doing it for a whole season this year.

Worst Pick: Seahawks D/ST
I’m just not a fan of taking defenses this early. They’ll be good, but predicting the top fantasy defenses is extremely difficult, so I have my doubts of this paying off.

My Picks: Nobody
Although I didn’t pick anyone, this did conclude my trade where I gave up Rob Gronkowski, Amari Cooper, and Markus Wheaton for Le’Veon Bell, Allen Robinson, and Kendall Wright. Honestly, that looks like a fairly even trade. I definitely like my guys more, but I picked my guys, so that gives me a bit of a bias.

Round 10
109 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Terrance West Ten
110 Geriatric All Stars  RB Ronnie Hillman Den
111 Wegher Bombs RB Christine Michael Dal
112 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  TE Travis Kelce KC
113 Run And Hyde WR Victor Cruz NYG
114 Hot Joel RB Shane Vereen NYG
115 You Just Have To BELLieve! TE Delanie Walker Ten
116 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Denard Robinson Jac
117 Graham Cracker WR Michael Floyd Ari
118 Run And Hyde WR Cody Latimer Den
119 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  WR Pierre Garcon Wsh
120 Deez Nuts WR Jordan Matthews Phi

Keepers: Travis Kelce and Jordan Matthews

Best Pick: Pierre Garcon
I don’t really like Pierre Garcon, but I have to recognize him as good value at this point in the draft. With everything falling off a cliff for the Redskins last year, he really did not produce, but two years ago, he had a huge impact. He’s probably not great, but if he isn’t, you drop him after a couple weeks, because you know there’s no improvement on the way. Otherwise, you might have yourself a nice flex option as he’s likely to get more balls than DeSean Jackson, but Jackson will get the big yardage.

Worst Pick: Delanie Walker
If you get excited about Delanie Walker, there is something wrong with you. It’s not that I’m against him, but there were tight ends that have much higher upside, while Walker will just get you pedestrian numbers each week. Nothing wrong with that, but not a whole lot right with it either.

My Pick: Christine Michael
I figured that since Dallas doesn’t like their running backs and were willing to trade for a new one; I should probably look into getting that new one, since Dallas’s offensive line is really, really good. This has about an 80% chance of being a totally worthless pick, but if it does hit, it could hit big.

Scouting The 2012 NFL Draft Quartebacks: Possible First Rounders

I love the NFL Draft. As a Bears fan, it is my one moment of hope throughout the year. Yes, some think the Bears could be contenders this year, but Jay Cutler is their quarterback, so they really don't have a chance. Speaking of quarterbacks, I decided to scout some of the bigger names coming out for the draft this season by watching a couple games of tape to give me a better idea of what they do well and what they struggle with. For the most part, these are just my notes while watching these guys play, but it should give you a fairly good overall picture of each prospect.

Andrew Luck 

He’s damn near perfect. I can’t add anything to the conversation. I have raved about him here, here, here, and also at bars across the USA.

RGIII 

So every time I really watched Baylor play, I was more just enjoying the football instead of trying to break down anyone in the game. I thought the RGIII hype had really spun out of control, so I decided to watch some quick videos of his. I watched his performance against TCU as well as Texas.

I was very impressed with his vision. Most of the offense is designed for a quick read and throw which he executes very well. When that first option is not open, he is quick to scan to his next option, often on the opposite side of the field, and quickly fire the ball. He showed a good feel for leading his receivers open.

Um, Good God, he throws a beautiful deep ball. Not only are his throws in stride, but he also does a good job of getting safeties to cheat up by turning his shoulders to an underneath receiver, and then quickly setting up to bomb out the deep ball.

He was rarely pressured. Sometimes, he reacted well by keeping his eyes downfield and continuing to look for open receivers. Other times, it led to some questionable throws. There just wasn’t a whole lot to go off of with pressure, but he handled the limited examples fairly well.

He seemed fast, but not elusive. I don’t see him as the same running threat as Cam Newton, despite his speed advantage.

I did not expect him to be this good. I still favor Luck, but if RGIII had come out any other recent year, he would be the number one pick in the draft. That is not saying that he will be able to perform better than what Cam Newton did in his rookie year, but I had far more questions about Newton than I do with Griffin.

In other news, Kendall Wright is really, really good. He plays fast, does a great job of creating separation, and also is excellent at adjusting to the ball. Whoever drafts him will be a very happy team.

Ryan Tannehill

I watched his games against Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

Tannehill may be more of a running threat than Griffin, because I think his vision in the running game is better.

Good arm and release.

His initial reaction was to bail out, but then he got away from the pressure and looked down the field and fired.

Has a tendency to stare down his receiver just a little too long.

Not impressive deep ball, and some really poor decisions. He just has no feel for it.

Average accuracy overall. I didn’t see him leading receivers open, and he was inconsistent on throws that you would expect a top ten pick to make.

Lots of dumpoff passes where receivers are required to make plays.

I know quarterbacks wins and losses are not a great barometer for success, but they do still interest me. Not to the point of “DUR, this guy’s a proven winner, DUR,” but still interesting. Tannehill has been knocked for not winning big games, and what I saw was him not getting help from receivers down the stretch. I don’t see it as anything to worry about at the next level.

Brandon Weeden

I watched Weeden's games against Iowa State and Stanford.

Very comfortable in the pocket. If he has time, he’s going to use it instead of settling for an underneath pass.

Poor decisions under pressure. Tried to throw over the middle off his back foot which led to very dangerous passes.

Occasionally seemed to not trust his read and it made him wait about a half second to make his throw.

So many short passes in this offense.

I definitely question his arm strength. His ball floats a little bit, and they really utilized very short passes which did not often challenge him. He left some balls up in the air for a while, relying on Blackmon to jump up and get them.

That's all I have for now, but I will be posting something tomorrow on other quarterbacks who are getting a lot of talk leading up to the draft.