I Still Believe in Mitch Trubisky

I was in love with Mitch Trubisky coming out of college. Like way, way, way too much. I had him as my top quarterback as Watson’s inaccuracy worried me, and I had just been burned by a quarterback who makes plays and shines brightest in big games, because that also describes Johnny Manziel. When it came to Mahomes, I saw the talent but like nearly everyone else, I didn’t know how it would translate to the NFL level. This revisionist history on Mahomes is a little insane, because nobody thought that guy was a slam dunk. There were things to love about him but also a ton of uncertainty. Anyway, it turns out Mahomes talent did translate to the NFL level. You may have heard about it.

So now Mitch is the butt of so many jokes, and it hurts me each and every time, because I’m an insane person who still believes in him. Even I have fallen out of love, but I don’t see why he can’t be as good as Kirk Cousins, who is, and will always be, the 16th best quarterback in the NFL. Trubisky should still at least be able to get to that level.

I forgot how good he was in college. I know he didn’t start until his junior year, but he saw time in his sophomore season and completed 85% of his passes. It was over 47 attempts, I get that, but that’s still pretty damn good. His senior year was 68%, and he did it without a lot of talent around him. Ryan Switzer is a nice little slot receiver, but it’s not like he had a big wide receiver or a top-notch running back while there. Also, they were 8-5 with Mitch and promptly went to 3-9, and then 2-9 after he left. Mitch Trubisky was an impressive prospect, and that can never be taken away.

Obviously, things have not gone as planned with the Bears. In 2017, he had to learn under John Fox, and that was a disaster, but he bounced back in 2018 and made the Pro Bowl. He was definitely streaky, but there were some really positive signs in 2018. The man was fourth in QBR in the NFL that season (Kirk Cousins was, unsurprisingly, 16th).

Mitch was a young quarterback who showed plenty of promise and enough production to think that 2019 would be another year of improvement, and instead, everything fell apart. Instead of having more confidence, he had less, way less, and he just wouldn’t pull the trigger on throws. It was so frustrating to watch. Part of this was probably due to Mitch taking way more sacks as the offensive line took a massive step backwards this season, and I also think Trubisky was hurt significantly by the Bears lack of a reliable tight end in the offense. He just didn’t have that safety valve to rely on, especially with Tarik Cohen really struggling early this season. I also think the Bears would have been helped by Jordan Howard who just bulldozes into things, and even if he’s not a great back, he is a reliable option that can churn out a few 100-yard games each season. Still, Mitch SUCKED this year. There’s no way to sugarcoat that. Even with some things working against him, he should have stepped up more than he did. He still showed flashes, but they were fewer and further in between this season.

The Bears need to get some help on the offensive line and they either need to have a healthy Trey Burton or add some help there as well. I think the receivers are good enough, especially since Allen Robinson is a true #1 wideout. I think David Montgomery will be better in year two, and will also benefit from a better offensive line. Also, if they give the damn ball to Cordarrelle Patterson on third or fourth and short, they owe me a brand new television, because I will break mine if I have to watch that plan fail yet again. 

But why can’t he bounce back? Mitch has the talent, and nobody can deny that he’s shown flashes of brilliance in the pros. He seemed to be at his best in the two-minute drill, because he stopped thinking and just fired the ball down the field. If he can get that mentality again, he will be plenty good enough to lead this team. They even brought in John DeFilippo as QB Coach when two years ago, he was being interviewed for the Bears head coaching position because of his strong work in Philadelphia. I think a shakeup for Mitch is good, and I think Mitch is going to shake things up in the NFC North next year. 

I can concede that Patrick Mahomes would have been a better selection than Trubisky, but I still think there’s a chance that he can get on Deshaun Watson’s level (I’m a tad delusional, I understand that), but either way, it’s too early to call Trubisky a bust, because he still has enough time where the next time you mention bust and Mitch Trubisky, you’re talking about his induction into the Hall of Fame. 

I'm Still Excited About The 2018 Chicago Bears

Sunday night's game against the Green Bay Packers was not ideal for the Chicago Bears. It was ideal for the first 35 minutes of the game as they cruised to a 20-0 lead and everything was wonderful in this crazy world that we live in. Then, things went to shit, and um, well, shit, everybody knows what happened, and the Bears are now 0-1. That outcome wasn't ideal, but I'm still pretty excited about the Chicago Bears this year.

First off, there is Khalil Mack who more than lived up to the hype surrounding his arrival in a trade last week. Even in limited time, he was a menace on the field, getting sacks and interceptions and touchdowns too. His meaningful damage came in the first half, but even a tired Mack caused disruption with pressures in the second half. As he gets up to game speed, he's only going to be more terrifying, which is incredibly exciting.

Speaking of the defense, Akiem Hicks was pretty damn dominant as well early on in the game. He was causing havoc by crushing the pocket, and he is creating a pick your poison situation where you can focus on blocking Hicks or you can focus on blocking Mack, but it's going to be really tough to block both.

On the less positive side, Leonard Floyd showed nothing in this game. The athleticism is evident, but I still haven't seen enough in his pass rushing techniques to get excited. He'll get some sacks on speed rushes, but until he can translate that speed into a respectable bull rush move, I don't know how dangerous he is going to be.

But the Bears should definitely play Roquan Smith more. Nick Kwiatkoski is a capable backup, but he simply doesn't have the athleticism to play linebacker as teams will continually expose him. Roquan is a monster who has every physical trait you could possibly want in a modern day linebacker. Give me more Roquan.

Oh, and the most obvious thing to point out on the defense. If Kyle Fuller catches that ball that hit him in the chest, the Bears are not only 1-0, but I can guarantee that people would be talking about the Bears as the favorite in the division. I'm not necessarily saying that people should be saying that, but people love making broad proclamations after one week.

On the offensive side, you're not going to believe this, but I won't start with Mitch Trubisky. Let's instead take a step back and truly enjoy the greatness of Jordan Howard. For some reason, it seemed that everybody wanted to toss him aside to get more Tarik Cohen in the offense. But Howard serves a huge role for this team. He is the bellcow back, and there is no reason that he shouldn't seen the majority of snaps. He did everything he could to win the game for the Bears on their second-to-last drive, and had they trusted him more, he probably could have iced the game away.

Okay, now let's talk about Mitch Trubisky. He showed good athleticism, movement in the pocket, and threw some excellent balls, but in the second half, he tightened up and refused to take chances. I saw him fire balls down the field in college, so I'm hoping this is just an adjustment period to not having a ton of experience and being in a brand new offense. With Allen Robinson being a player who has shown that he can be a top receiver in the NFL, and with all the rave reviews about Anthony Miller, let's hope Trubisky uses those assets to open up the offense in week two.

Right now, the Bears are 0-1, but winning in Green Bay is never easy, and although it seems like one that got away, the important thing is to see how they bounce back, because 15-1 still ain't too bad of a season. Go Bears.

Is This Mitch Trubisky's Breakout Year?

As the world's number one Mitch Trubisky supporter as evidenced here, here, here, here, and here, I felt it was about time to weigh in on what to expect from the future hall-of-famer as he embarks on his second professional season. It is a weird feeling for Bears fans, because for the first time since Sexy Rexy was throwing it deep every chance he got, there is actually a buzz about this team, and this may be the first time ever where that buzz is seriously centered around the offense.

With an unbiased opinion, it's hard to say that Trubisky was an overwhelming success in his rookie year. Still, there were some mitigating factors working against him as John Fox and Dowell Loggains coached what was likely the most boring offense in the NFL. It makes sense as the dowel is easily the most boring piece when building IKEA furniture. Trubisky was consistently throwing behind schedule which made his job as a rookie nearly impossible. It didn't help that the Bears best receiver last year was...um, Kendall Wright. And that's bad enough, but Kendall Wright was #1 by a WIDE margin. He had nearly twice as many yards as number two on the list, Josh Bellamy, and Wright still ended up with only 614 receiving yards. This was not a recipe for success.

Although as all of us true football guys know, stats are for losers, I did find an interesting article on Football Outsiders this week that went over quarterback success on a variety of routes. Here is where Mitch Trubisky ranks out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks on each route:

Curl - 35th
Out - 25th
Dig - 8th
Slant - 18th
Drag - 8th
Fly - 29th
Screen - 20th
Post - 9th
Comeback - 33rd
Broken Play - 22nd
Fade - 17th
Seam - 23rd

Now the first thing you will realize is that last year was not a rousing success. His highest finish is eighth best, and he was dead last at the curl route as well as very low in some other spots. The most interesting thing I noticed is that Trubisky had the most success on routes breaking into the middle of the field and struggled when throwing to the outside.

A huge positive to Trubisky having success in the middle of the field is that it confirms something that I suspected when watching him, and that he is able to see the field well. There are a whole lot more bodies around for those in-breaking routes, and Trubisky is able to diagnose and get yards over the middle of the field. He was the literal worst with curl routes, but I think it's fair to assume that part of the blame goes to his receiving targets.

Speaking of awful receivers, I can't totally ignore that he struggled to the routes that broke to the outside. I would say that this is a little concerning as these are generally tougher physical throws to make accurately, but this may be another case of his receivers not giving him a whole lot to work with. It may also be the lack of chemistry built with those receivers, especially since Mike Glennon was getting first team reps during the offseason and even for the first month of the season. It's something to keep an eye on, but it's a little early to be worried about it.

The biggest positive out of all of this is that there is hope on the horizon when it comes to the Bears coaching staff. With new head coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich, this offense will not only be interesting but is actually getting people excited. This is the reason for all of the buzz around the Bears this season, because if they still had the same coaching staff, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and the epic return of Kevin White wouldn't matter (and maybe that last one still won't matter). With the added weapons and offensive minds that will play to Trubisky's strengths, this offense has everything it needs to put up points.

Now it's time for Trubisky to deliver.

NFL Thoughts Going Into Week Two

Since I have been away from the blog for a while, I have not been able to share my suepr intelligence when it comes to NFL Football. I want to remedy that now to make you a smarter football fan.

Because of time missed, you did not get my fantasy football advice that Ezekiel Elliott would provide good value, Tyreek Hill would have a breakout, but I didn't like him as much as Allen Robinson (whoopsies), and DeAndre Hopkins might provide first round value yet again (jury's still out on that one). I also loved the Chiefs Defense more than anything, and even without Eric Berry, they'll still be really good, because they are going to have a great pass rush again, and Dave Toub always creates opportunities for special teams. My second favorite defense was the Eagles, because that defensive line is set to destroy the world this year.

Also, every year, it seems there is one guy that I want to add early in the season but don't quite have the roster space, and this year that man is Tarik Cohen. Last year it was Jordan Howard, as I was super high on both of them, but I just couldn't pull the trigger, and now I'm standing here, looking like an idiot with my pud in my hand. Also, I swear it's not always a Bears running back, as I was always way down on Jeremy Langford.

I also didn't get time to brag about how I was on the Mitch Trubisky bandwagon before everyone else. Seriously, can we just rewind to see my thoughts with these three posts professing my love for Trubisky before, during, and after the draft.

Breaking Down the Quarterbacks of the 2017 Draft
Who Should the Bears Draft at #3?
Why the Chicago Bears Traded So Much for Mitch Trubisky

Also, people are really trying to jump to conclusions after one week of football. The Giants offense is not going to be as bad as they looked in week one, the Falcons are still really good, even if they did struggle with the Bears, the Seahawks will be fine, and the only thing that is correct is that the Patriots Dynasty is over, and they'll be lucky to avoid last place this season. That one is definitely happening.

But most importantly, will the Bears please start Mitch Trubisky's Hall of Fame career already? I need this.

Reviewing My Fantasy Football Draft - Part 2

My latest fantasy football draft happened Monday night. For the uninformed, it is part of a three sport keeper league with baseball and basketball, and you can trade between sports. I am an impatient person, so I am always wheeling and dealing, and this draft would be no different, as I moved up from 10 to the top overall pick a half hour before the draft. Was it a good deal? Well, we'll get to the details in the post today as I break down the middle five rounds of the draft.

Round 6
61 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB LeGarrette Blount NE
62 Geriatric All Stars  QB Ben Roethlisberger Pit
63 Wegher Bombs RB Isaiah Crowell Cle
64 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  WR Mike Wallace Min
65 Run And Hyde WR Martavis Bryant Pit
66 Hot Joel QB Tony Romo Dal
67 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman QB Matt Ryan Atl
68 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Brandin Cooks NO
69 Graham Cracker RB Ameer Abdullah Det
70 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Ryan Mathews Phi
71 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  RB Tevin Coleman Atl
72 Wegher Bombs WR Allen Robinson Jac

Keepers: Brandin Cooks

Best Pick: Ameer Abdullah
I don’t see a way that Abdullah isn’t the Lions top running back this year. He’s just more talented than Joique Bell. He can do everything, and Joique Bell is already hurt. I could see them shying away from goal line carries, but he’s such a threat in the passing game that I think his receiving and rushing stats will counter balance a possible lack of touchdowns.

Worst Pick: Martavis Bryant
If he wasn’t suspended for four games, I think this is a reasonable spot to take him, but he is suspended for four games, and then he’s going to have to ramp up to get involved in the offense the first few weeks. I don’t think the coaching staff looks fondly on guys who get suspended, so it’s not like they’ll have extra motivation to get him involved. He’s a receiving threat, but for some reason I doubt he is going to eclipse Antonio Brown as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target.

My Picks: Isaiah Crowell and Allen Robinson
I like Crowell as a running back. The Browns trading away Terrance West made me like Crowell more. The fact that Duke Johnson is struggling with concussions is a reason for me to like him even more. Even if Duke Johnson gets involved, Crowell is going to be the bruising half of the combo, so he’s going to be the guy getting the goal line carries. Early on, he should be great, and if he fades later in the season, that’s when I’ve got Bell and Gurley to take over the running back duties.

Allen Robinson is getting so much hype that it’s getting a little out of control. Still, the guy is a physical marvel as the only guy who tested with more athleticism than him in the last ten years has been Calvin Johnson. I also don’t mind Bortles as a quarterback. People always want to jump to conclusions on rookies, but there are so many aspects of how prospects grow and develop, and the biggest key in that development is time. Bortles will be given the time, and with Robinson, he has a weapon that many people expect to have a breakout year. I hope those people are right.

Round 7
73 Deez Nuts QB Eli Manning NYG
74 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  WR Charles Johnson Min
75 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB C.J. Spiller NO
76 Graham Cracker RB Giovani Bernard Cin
77 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks TE Greg Olsen Car
78 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Darren McFadden Dal
79 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Jeremy Hill Cin
80 Run And Hyde WR John Brown Ari
81 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  WR Larry Fitzgerald Ari
82 Run And Hyde TE Jordan Cameron Mia
83 Geriatric All Stars  WR Steve Smith Sr. Bal
84 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Alfred Blue Hou

Keepers: Jeremy Hill, which almost makes up for the Cam Newton keeper.

Best Pick: Giovani Bernard
Remember going into last year when Giovani Bernard was a second round pick? He was good, and people expected big things. But last year he struggled with injuries and lost his job to Jeremy Hill. That’s not as good, but he’s still a good back, and if he’s healthy, the Bengals are going to find ways to get him involved, especially since he is much more versatile than the one-dimensional Hill (but his one-dimension is very, very good).

Worst Pick: Darren McFadden
In what universe is Darren McFadden a good idea? He is losing the starting battle at running back for the Cowboys to Joseph Randle. Randle is so unimpressive himself that they traded for Christine Michel. So it is going to take Randle getting hurt, Michel not impressing at all, and McFadden actually staying healthy enough to take advantage of Dallas’s offensive line. I don’t believe that we live that universe, so I would not have made that pick.

My Pick: None
I traded my seventh round football pick for Max Scherzer right before he started shitting the bed in every one of his starts. So, hooray me.

Round 8
85 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Duke Johnson Cle
86 Geriatric All Stars  WR Eric Decker NYJ
87 Wegher Bombs WR Kendall Wright Ten
88 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  RB Tre Mason StL
89 Run And Hyde WR DeVante Parker Mia
90 Hot Joel TE Martellus Bennett Chi
91 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Knile Davis KC
92 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Marques Colston NO
93 Graham Cracker WR Devin Funchess Car
94 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Mike Evans TB
95 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  RB David Johnson Ari
96 Wegher Bombs QB Russell Wilson Sea

Keepers: Russell Wilson and Mike Evans

Best Pick: Martellus Bennett
I don’t think it would be crazy to expect Martellus Bennett to take another step forward and be a top three tight end this year. John Fox is a fairly conservative coach which means his offenses have usually maximized the production of the tight end. Of course there was Julius Thomas last year, but Martellus Bennet has the potential to be the next Wesley Walls, and that dude was no joke.

Worst Pick: Knile Davis
He’s a backup, and he’s not all that good. If I was looking for a running back to take a flyer on, there were about ten guys I would have taken before considering Davis.

My Picks: Kendall Wright and Russell Wilson
I am a huge fan of Kendall Wright. Like, I understand Emmanuel Sanders put up big numbers last year, but I think Kendall Wright could have definitely done that in the right offense; he just hasn’t been in the right offense. I think that begins to change this year, as Kendall Wright would have been an ideal target for Marcus Mariota’s skillset at Oregon, and I think those two will have a lot of fun carving up defenses this year. I think he puts up 1000 yards this year.

Russell Wilson was never the quarterback I wanted during the draft last year. I don’t even think I put him on my list of draftable players. But he kept falling and falling. Still, I had no intentions of taking him. Who did I want instead? My plans were Josh Gordon, who got taken two picks before mine, and Kyle Rudolph, who got taken one pick before mine. So I was stuck with Russell Wilson. And now I’m thinking that’s pretty cool. He’s got a brand new tight end, and they actively made their offensive line worse, so there is the likelihood that they will be forced to pass more. Russell Wilson is now my main man.

Round 9
97 Deez Nuts RB Bishop Sankey Ten
98 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  QB Matthew Stafford Det
99 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Eddie Royal Chi
100 Graham Cracker RB Danny Woodhead SD
101 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB DeAngelo Williams Pit
102 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman TE Dwayne Allen Ind
103 Hot Joel RB Devonta Freeman Atl
104 Run And Hyde D/ST Seahawks D/ST Sea
105 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  QB Philip Rivers SD
106 Deez Nuts WR Markus Wheaton Pit
107 Geriatric All Stars  TE Jason Witten Dal
108 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable QB Sam Bradford Phi

Best Pick: Philip Rivers
I don’t really understand what separates Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and Tony Romo where they are Round 6 guys, and Rivers goes three rounds later. I guess they have elite #1 wide receivers, but San Diego has slowly gotten more and more talent around Rivers, especially with upgrades to the offensive line. He was hot fire at the beginning of last year, and I wouldn’t bet against him doing it for a whole season this year.

Worst Pick: Seahawks D/ST
I’m just not a fan of taking defenses this early. They’ll be good, but predicting the top fantasy defenses is extremely difficult, so I have my doubts of this paying off.

My Picks: Nobody
Although I didn’t pick anyone, this did conclude my trade where I gave up Rob Gronkowski, Amari Cooper, and Markus Wheaton for Le’Veon Bell, Allen Robinson, and Kendall Wright. Honestly, that looks like a fairly even trade. I definitely like my guys more, but I picked my guys, so that gives me a bit of a bias.

Round 10
109 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Terrance West Ten
110 Geriatric All Stars  RB Ronnie Hillman Den
111 Wegher Bombs RB Christine Michael Dal
112 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  TE Travis Kelce KC
113 Run And Hyde WR Victor Cruz NYG
114 Hot Joel RB Shane Vereen NYG
115 You Just Have To BELLieve! TE Delanie Walker Ten
116 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Denard Robinson Jac
117 Graham Cracker WR Michael Floyd Ari
118 Run And Hyde WR Cody Latimer Den
119 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  WR Pierre Garcon Wsh
120 Deez Nuts WR Jordan Matthews Phi

Keepers: Travis Kelce and Jordan Matthews

Best Pick: Pierre Garcon
I don’t really like Pierre Garcon, but I have to recognize him as good value at this point in the draft. With everything falling off a cliff for the Redskins last year, he really did not produce, but two years ago, he had a huge impact. He’s probably not great, but if he isn’t, you drop him after a couple weeks, because you know there’s no improvement on the way. Otherwise, you might have yourself a nice flex option as he’s likely to get more balls than DeSean Jackson, but Jackson will get the big yardage.

Worst Pick: Delanie Walker
If you get excited about Delanie Walker, there is something wrong with you. It’s not that I’m against him, but there were tight ends that have much higher upside, while Walker will just get you pedestrian numbers each week. Nothing wrong with that, but not a whole lot right with it either.

My Pick: Christine Michael
I figured that since Dallas doesn’t like their running backs and were willing to trade for a new one; I should probably look into getting that new one, since Dallas’s offensive line is really, really good. This has about an 80% chance of being a totally worthless pick, but if it does hit, it could hit big.