What Should The Chicago Bears Do In The 2015 NFL Draft?

Going into the draft, the Bears, as well as every other team outside of the Buccaneers have three options with their first pick. They can trade up, they can stay in their position and draft, or they can trade down. Let's break down those options and see what is the best move for the Bears with their first pick:

Trade Up
This is the least likely of the scenarios and for good reason. The Bears just have way too many holes on their team to be sacrificing draft picks. They basically need an entire defense, half of an offensive line, a quarterback, and another wide receiver. Outside of that, they're set. The only way I can see them trading up is if Lovie Smith wants to be reunited with Jay Cutler and agrees to trade down six picks for that privilege. Does anybody see that happening? So, yeah, I think the Bears should avoid trading up.

Stay and Draft
That brings us to our next option, stay at number 7 and make the pick. Honestly, there are four guys that I would love to see the Bears get at number 7. Four is a good number, but when there's six teams selecting in front of you, it's not a great number. Let's take a quick look at all four guys:

Jameis Winston 
I mean, it's not likely that he falls that far, but I'd be pretty dang excited if he did.

Marcus Mariota 
I mean, it's not likely that he falls that far, but I'd be pretty dang excited if he did.

Leonard Williams 
I don't see him as a can't miss stud, but I do really like him, and I admittedly have trouble scouting the talent in 3-4 defensive ends. There is a lot of subtlety that they bring on plays, and their responsibilities aren't as flashy as other positions. Still, if he falls for some reason, I would be incredibly pleased if the Bears could add an essential piece to their defense.

Dante Fowler Jr.
Twitchy. That is the first word that comes to mind when watching Dante Fowler Jr. Although it doesn't sound like a good thing, it is emblematic that this guy is just loaded with fast-twitch muscle fiber as he can explode into any movement. It can be frenetic, but this is a guy that could be successful in a variety of roles. He was never a full-time pass rusher, but I think he could do some serious damage if that was his primary role while also being effective holding up in the run and dropping into coverage. Even when he doesn't make the play, he finds ways to cause havoc.

Vic Beasley 
Most mock drafts have Beasley falling well beyond the Bears selection at 7, so some may consider this a reach. This is not a reach, and I really hope that he makes it to 7, as this guy is the real deal. He's my favorite pass rushing prospect since Von Miller, and he does things like this that make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

I like that. This clip made me exclaim, "Holy shit," and that is just about the highest honor a prospect can get. The only thing higher is if he keeps doing ridiculous things to the point where I start laughing at how ridiculous the guy is. He is the most likely guy to be there when the Bears draft at seven, and I would be ecstatic if they took him to be a key piece in their transformation into a 3-4 defense.

Trade Down
The last option the Bears have in the draft is to trade down. Speculating on who they could trade with and what they could receive is a fool's errand, so I'm not even going to try. Still, I did want to go over a few options that could be targeted later in the first round.

Danny Shelton
The thing with Shelton is that he is a good nose guard, but he's not on the level of a guy like Haloti Ngata. I have heard quite a few Vince Wilfork comparisons, and I do like the comparison for a ceiling, but Wilfork was far better at shedding blocks and creating havoc in the backfield than Shelton is at this point. I have very little doubt that Shelton is an above average nose tackle, but I don't see him as the type of game changing talent that you need to be looking for with the seventh pick in the draft. He's the type of guy that if the Bears traded down and got him, I would be good with it. He has a good motor and makes some nice moves. At the same time, if they traded down and didn't get him, he's not a guy I'd be heartbroken on missing out on.

Brandon Scherff
This may be some Hawkeye bias shining through, but Scherff is a monster. I do question his ability to stay at tackle, but they could build one hell of an interior line if they had Scherff at one guard and Kyle Long at the other spot. Their defense should take precedent, but I will never be disappointed with a team that drafts a stud offensive lineman.

Eric Kendricks
I think this guy is going to be available late in the first round, and possibly even lasting until the second, but that seems pretty ludicrous to me. This guy is just a really good football player. Nobody seems to doubt this, and yet, the middle linebacker position has quietly become undervalued, even though I still think it is essential to a great defense. If he goes late in the first (or later), I feel like the worst case scenario is that people say it was a solid pick, but it still brings upside as the guy could be a pro bowler who captains your defense.

As I said before, the Bears have a lot of holes on their roster. This draft isn't going to turn them into a contender, but it can give a jump start to the rebuild. Nailing that first pick is essential. As for the later rounds in the draft, I will be posting my most underrated and overrated prospects in this draft the next couple days.

Marcus Mariota - 2015 NFL Draft Scouting Report

With the college football season over, the 2015 NFL Draft season immediately starts up to fill that void. I plan to take a look at all of the top quarterback prospects but will also be willing to take suggestions if there are prospects at other positions that you would like to see analyzed. But my bread and butter is quarterback play (a position I still feel is underrated in the draft). Today, I wrap up the series by taking a look at Oregon Ducks Quarterback, Marcus Mariota.

Statistically speaking, you cannot get much better than Mariota. He absolutely dominated during his final college season and led the Oregon Ducks to the National Championship game. Most casual football fans assumed that he would be the first quarterback taken, because Winston threw more interceptions and interceptions are bad. As I'm writing this, Winston has gained the edge, but I'm not really worried about consensus, I'm worried with how these guys produce. Courtesy of Draft Breakdown, I was able to take a look at his 2014 games against Michigan State, Florida State, and Ohio State.

Awareness
The first thing that people seem to bring up with Marcus Mariota is that his offense made him tough to evaluate. Honestly, I don't think scouting an Oregon player is more difficult than scouting an Alabama player. For Oregon, it is scheme that gives them an advantage, but Alabama brings in nothing but the best recruits so it is easier for a player to shine with all of that talent around them. With the efficiency in the design of Oregon's offense, I was worried that Mariota wouldn't have to go through progressions on throws. For the most part, this was true, but he did have plays where it was necessary, and he showed aptitude. This is a good example:

He looks to his left, but then works his eyes back towards the middle where he sees that his receiver has a step on the defender. Even with good coverage, there is not much you can do when a quarterback throws a ball like that.

Pocket Presence
If you give him a comfortable pocket, he can carve up a defense. Once the pressure comes crashing in, he takes a lot of sacks and will too often throw off his back foot. Here is a play where he sees pressure coming but has plenty of space to step up and make a throw.

Unfortunately, he throws off his back foot and misses a wide open receiver. He's going to have to learn to throw in tight pockets, so not being able to step into a throw like that is definitely worrisome.

This is another example of Mariota adjusting his throwing motion when the pocket closes in on him.

He likely has enough room to make that throw, but he hesitates on it, and then short arms the throw.

Still, it's not all bad, as he did show the ability to move well in the pocket on this play.

He starts by looking to his right, adeptly slips a rusher, sees that things are still crowded in front of him, so he looks up, spots an open receiver and makes a touchdown throw.

Wow Plays
Full disclosure: I take notes while I watch the games, and I pressed pause and wrote, "I keep saying that he is very good, but I never get the feeling of greatness." Then I watched the very next play and started laughing at my stupidity.

There is so much that is right with this play. First off, the throw is great, but that pales in comparison as to what he does mentally here. Marshall is his third option on this play, but he is so quick at going through his reads that it doesn't matter. His first option is the tight end, but the linebacker in zone takes away that, so he looks to his left but the receiver on the outside is not open, he works his eyes back to the middle and fires a great pass to his receiver who is streaking open.

The issue that people have with Mariota is the offense. He wasn't asked to do the same things that Winston was required to do. Still, he showed flashes of having any ability that an NFL team is looking for. The biggest question mark I am left with is whether he is willing to trust his arm and pull the trigger by throwing into tight coverage. The physical capabilities are there; it's just a matter of believing he can squeeze the ball into tight windows.

Overall
There is a reason that everybody puts Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston far ahead of all of hte other quarterbacks in this draft. Although I have found myself liking the skills that Brett Hundley brings to the table, he is a step below these two quarterbacks. But this is the (likely) the last guy I will be looking at, so who's #1? Well, it really depends on what you want.

Marcus Mariota gets really bad comparisons. He gets compared to Colin Kaepernick, but he has less arm strength but maintains a tighter delivery, makes more accurate throws, and is far better at reading a field. I have also heard Alex Smith, but I think he is a far more dangerous quarterback in every aspect than Smith. The guy I see is Randall Cunningham. He doesn't quite have the arm, but he makes up for it with his accuracy. Meanwhile, I see Winston as a non-athletic Andrew Luck. They both make stupid throws, but they also do incredible things when it matters, and they are guys who find ways to win.

When it comes down to it, the offense that you want your team to run should be the difference maker between the two prospects. Jameis Winston fits that bill for more teams than Marcus Mariota, but Mariota would be good in a Winston offense, while Winston drops off quite a bit if asked to do what Mariota does. In the end, I have Winston a hair ahead of Mariota, as Winston has consistently displayed the ability to stand tall under pressure and deliver passes while Mariota has only flashed it. Off the field, there are plenty of question marks, but on the field, Jameis is the best talent in this draft.

Quarterback Prospect Rankings:
1. Jameis Winston - Florida State
2. Marcus Mariota - Oregon
3. Brett Hundley - UCLA
4. Shane Carden - East Carolina
5. Bryce Petty - Baylor
6. Sean Mannion - Oregon State
7. Garrett Grayson - Colorado State
8. Blake Sims - Alabama

Scouting Week 9 of College Football

Oh, Jameis Winston. You're very good at football. He has great placement on his balls. He also is thinking far ahead of most college (and even some pro) quarterbacks in the way that he will throw balls to protect his receivers. He threw a crossing route behind his receiver, and it saved his receiver from getting laid out by an NC State defensive back. Still, it's really hard to do much judging of him when his team is just dominating their opponents. Maybe Miami will give him a tough game next week, but I'm kind of doubting it.

Sammy Watkins is incredibly smooth as a receiver. The one thing that stood out for Alshon Jeffrey that Watkins has is the way he attacks the ball with his hands instead of waiting for it to come to him. Jeffrey has been so good that some people view him as the Bears true #1 receiver. I'm not quite ready to go there with him, but Watkins might be Jeffrey with more athleticism. He's just an incredibly reliable target.

Tajh Boyd, on the other hand, is just fine. He greatly benefits from the weapons around him, and he seems to lack a great feel for things. Last week, he lost the ball on a corner blitz when he was naturally rolling away from that blitz. This week, he failed to handle pressure repeatedly. He loses track of what is around him when he feels pressure, and he only survives on pure athleticism, which will not work at the next level.

AJ McCarron, and everyone on Alabama, drives me crazy, because there is just so much talent on that team that they can completely outclass opponents. How much credit does McCarron deserve? As I'm typing this, Christion Jones just took an end around for five yards; unsatisfied, he completely reversed field, and ended up picking up an additional 15. McCarron places his balls really well, but his receivers get so open that he really doesn't need to rocket anything in there.

From what I've seen, I would compare him to Andy Dalton, where he has the skillset to be competent at the next level. An interesting question is whether Andy Dalton was a good pick for the Bengals. He's good enough to guide them to the playoffs with the help of the best receiver in the league, a good offensive line, and a very good defense. I'm really not sure if that's a compliment or an insult. He's not Blaine Gabbert, which is good, but is their ceiling with a guy like him at QB a loss in the divisional round of the playoffs?

Anthony Barr is baffling me. He always takes advantage of mistakes, but it seems like he only makes plays off of mistakes. He's got a great speed rush, so if the offensive line doesn't get a good kick out in their initial set, he will blow right by them. I can't tell if his speed is so great that he makes people look like they have terrible technique or if his speed just kills terrible technique. He also has a great engine, and he does just keep moving and finding a way to make plays. I could see him being a lot like Aldon Smith, who is a guy I totally whiffed on. Before the draft, I'm going to try to watch tape from both guys to see if I am missing something on prospects like this.

Marcus Mariota is one guy who I have been waiting to study. I'm still not nearly as high on him as others seem to be. The first thing that leaps out is that he is an incredible athlete. His down field throws left a lot to be desired. In the second quarter, he completed a deep out, but he under threw it and it almost gave the defensive back a play on the ball. They turned the ball over on downs when he badly overthrew a receiver in the end zone. Too often, he just tries to fire the ball in there, but he has the ability to put touch on the ball. His touchdown pass in the game was a really nice ball that he made look very easy. He does do a good job of going through his reads. He doesn't panic and does a good job of setting and throwing. Oregon has a great offense, and that makes things easy on Mariota. Right now, I see him as a rich man's Kaepernick, so he definitely has first round value. Seeing how he handles pressure will provide a better idea of how high in the first round he should go.

Brett Hundley is just not impressive. I saw major issues when I watched him against Nebraska, and I continue to have the same concerns. The good about Hundley is obvious. He's athletic, and he has good arm strength. The most brutal part of his game was a terrible throw inside the red zone that led to an easy pick from Oregon. Hundley's touchdown pass before the end of the half was a nice ball, but that is where he succeeds. It was a throw over the middle where he was able to go to his first read. He recognized the blitz and knew that if his receiver was able to break inside the cornerback that it was just going to be a pitch and catch at that point. He also doesn't have a great feel inside the pocket as sometimes he panics when it is not necessary and other times he does not notice a defender nearby. The endzone camera would help on this, but he seemed to lock into receivers at times and fail completely on going through his progressions before trying to run. He zeroes in on a guy, which gives the safety a chance to break on routes, so instead of waiting for a receiver to get open, he telegraphs it so much that the coverage can adjust to his eyes. This is the reason he got picked off at the beginning of the fourth quarter, because the man in coverage was able to break on the pass before he even threw it. I don't hate him as a prospect, but I do think he could use another year, possibly two, in college to refine his game. If he came out this year, a team would really be gambling on a lot of different things coming together for him to work out at the next level.

DeAnthony Thomas is a guy who is dangerous in space, and I think if he is utilized correctly, he can be an impact player, but he's far more Darren Sproles than Warrick Dunn. I just don't see an every down back in him, and he has to be in a system that is designed for success.

I was digging Jordan Zumwalt, as there was a drive where he was basically trying to murder everyone on Oregon. He was always around the ball, and that guy is a player.

I love Brandin Cooks. I was only able to catch the oregon State-Stanford game at the bar, but that dude is a player. Very elusive and very good routes, finds holes in the defense and is a great asset for a quarterback. 

7 College Football Thoughts For Week 3 - Scouting Quarterbacks

1. First off, I was very underwhelmed by Brett Hundley. I know he won the game and by a large margin, but Nebraska's defense is just terrible. Hundley was just locking in on receivers and hesitating for a split second before throwing the ball. If the defense was reading his eyes at all, they were able to break on the ball before it was even in the air. When he actually did scan the field, it was never smooth and looked very robotic.

Hundley did show good mobility throughout the game and he seemed to have decent pocket awareness. One thing that I do wonder is whether he might be better with more pressure. He seemed to hold onto the ball long, because he had no pressure and maybe he would make quicker decisions and throws if he was forced to.

The good news is that he does have a good arm on him. He threw some nice balls and showed good accuracy for the most part. I would have liked to see more routes where he was forced to lead his receivers, but they threw a lot of curls and comebacks throughout the game. His touchdown pass down the near sideline was a thing of beauty.

2. Taylor Martinez...no. In all seriousness, he does a nice job in that offense, and he was pretty accurate early on, but the T-Magic stopped working in the second half. Also, he will always have two games a year where it's just brutal to watch him. Also, the arm strength isn't there for him to be a real quarterback prospect at the next level.

3. Teddy Bridgewater, on the other hand, is fun to watch. He is so smooth. He is able to go through his reads, and is willing to throw the ball away if nothing is there. Kentucky did a really nice job of taking away his first options and not letting him get anything deep, but he was willing to check down and take the gains that were open underneath. On top of that, he does some nice work with his play action where he will really hold that ball out until the last possible moment before keeping it for the pass play. Basically, just about everything about him is fantastic. He leads people  in stride, can throw it down field, it's all there. I love Clowney, but I have a very tough time believing that Bridgewater won't be the first pick in the draft.

4. For Blake Bell, I didn't watch a ton of the game, but man, that guy really floats his balls down the field. That won't work at the next level, but he was pretty damn accurate from what I saw, and if he can keep that up, Oklahoma has a good shot at the Big 12 title. He's not much of a prospect at the next level, but it's still fine to enjoy him for what he is.

5. Johnny Manziel was pretty impressive early on. Showing great accuracy when throwing the ball down the field. He was just tearing up Alabama with man-to-man, because he was either finding an open guy or was able to scramble, because everyone in coverage had their back to him. He was just taking his time and carving things up. His passes were incredibly accurate. It was all good.

Okay, so that stupid throw. It was 3rd and 8, so even if it gets picked, it doesn't really cost them that much, because they were going to be too far out for a field goal. They're looking at a pooch punt or a 4th and 8, which, even though he was rolling, is not an easy conversion. That being said, I think Johnny Manziel is just a madman who doesn't give a shit about anything, and none of that was actually going through his head. He really just wanted to make a play.

His interception in the end zone wasn't that bad. Not a great throw, but it wasn't done out of cockiness, as the CBS announcers stated. He just overthrew it a little and his receiver badly misjudged it. His interception at the beginning of the third quarter was much worse as he forced a ball into coverage, under threw the pass, and paid for it on a tip. His problem was that he was so successful throwing the ball down the field early on that he just kept doing it, and it eventually caught up to him. Also, the breaks just did not go their way, as Alabama really only stopped them with good defense on one drive in the first half. Otherwise, they were hurt by penalties, that first interception, and running out of time at the end of the half.

6. A.J. McCarron is solid in all aspects of the game. The arm strength is not going to wow you, but he knows what he's doing out there. He makes quick decisions in everything that he does. He also does a very good job of reading a defense before the ball is snapped to put him in a position to succeed. The toughest thing about scouting McCarron is he is surrounded by players on offense that are way better than any players he could face on defense. This is just as unique of a situation as trying to scout Marcus Mariota and the offense that Oregon runs to give them an advantage. I don't think he's been as good this year as he was last year, but the core skills are there for him to be successful.

7. I have heard Marcus Mariota rumored as a top QB prospect, and although I like him for the Eagles at the next level, I do not see him as a big time prospect for most teams. He's a fine thrower, but it is tough to put pressure on Oregon, and he showed an extreme lack of pocket awareness against Tennessee. I'll admit to seeing only about five plays from him in that game, but those are my initial thoughts from my limited view of him. 

6 College Football Thoughts For Week 2

1. Marcus Mariota is fast. That is my analysis, but what he could mean to the NFL is very interesting. He's not a great passer, but he's good. If Chip Kelly is really bringing his offense to the professional level, does Mariota have first round value for him, yet only mid round value for another team (I still don't think he would draft him in the first, but he could be that kind of impact player for his team)? Kelly stayed away from his players in his first draft, but it will be interesting to see how he builds his team for the future.

2. I was never that big of a fan of Aaron Murray, but he was very impressive. He did a great job of leading his receivers and throwing strikes down the field.

3. Clowney is amazing. It doesn't matter that it isn't showing up on a stat sheet, because everyone is designing a game plan around minimizing Clowney's impact.

4. Devin Gardner should not be underestimated as an NFL prospect. He's got a good arm, is mobile, but still needs to refine his decision making. Still, there's stuff to work with, and I would rather develop him than Logan Thomas.

5. I still have a huge crush on Kyle Van Noy. He is just always around the ball and can make plays in the running game and affects the passing game both with pass rushing and in coverage. I wish I had a gif of the spin move he put on Texas's left tackle during the third series on third down. It was a thing of beauty, and it made me emit a noise that sounded a little too much like me having an orgasm. Also, despite not being a big linebacker, he was able to bull rush lineman and collapse the pocket.

6. Marqise Lee can't catch anything this year, not even punts. That was like the only play I watched, so those are my only thoughts on Lee.