The Most Underrated Players in the 2015 NFL Draft

With the draft coming up this Thursday, it is a good time to look at the prospects that I like more than most people. Some of these guys aren't the deepest of sleepers, but I do feel they are being underrated by the general public/cornucopia of draft gurus. Ultimately, my goal is that my favorite team, the Chicago Bears, will see this list and follow my recommendations, but I would settle for the Buccaneers taking my recommendations as they are the team I live closest to these days.

QB - Shane Carden - East Carolina
I talked about him extensively here. Honorable mention for Brett Hundley.

RB - Todd Gurley - Georgia
Gurley is the best player in this draft. He needs to have a full recovery from his knee injury, but it looks like things are going well on that end. Now, even had he not injured the knee, he isn't worth the top pick in the draft despite being the best player. Running back is not as important of a position as it used to be, but Gurley is a guaranteed stud in a draft that really doesn't have another one. It would make zero sense for the Bears to draft him, and yet, I would actually be kind of pumped if they did. He's that good.

RB - David Cobb - Minnesota
He got downgraded because of an unimpressive 40 time, but 40 times are pretty worthless when it comes to running backs. This guy is just a good running back. He can punish defenses and grind out yards. People talk about this running back class being loaded and then talk about Gordon and Gurley at the top, but the depth is stupid good. I could have easily mentioned Tevin Coleman, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Mike Davis, and probably some others. This is a good draft to take a running back.

WR - Stefon Diggs - Maryland
Maryland has had pretty poor quarterback play these last few years, so Diggs was never really given a chance to shine. Still, the skill-set is there, as the guy is smooth in and out of his breaks and knows how to get open and create after the catch. He will make a receiver-needy team very happy with a mid-round pick.

TE - AJ Derby - Arkansas
This is mostly a homer pick (former Iowa QB) as I only saw the big highlights from Derby's season, but there was enough there to dream on. He'll probably go undrafted, but the guy has good athleticism, he's big and strong, and he's shown enough potential in running routes and tracking the ball. This is a bet on athleticism, but that's the type of guy that is worth a flyer in the 7th round, or definitely as a free agent.

OT - Jake Fisher - Oregon
Fisher seems to be getting overlooked as a first round option, and I have to say I'd be pretty pumped if my favorite team was able to get him in round two. He's a very athletic lineman, and Oregon's offense ran much smoother when he was healthy. A guy like TJ Clemmings may have a higher ceiling, but Fisher offers a high ceiling with a reasonably high floor as well.

DT - Grady Jarrett - Clemson
Jarrett is a guy that I really like, but is made for the Bears old defense and not the new one. Still, he's a guy with Geno Atkins-level upside as all he did in college was make plays. He's not a nose, but he can cause havoc in the backfield as a three technique DT. He was really overlooked, but it seems like his stock has been rising in the media the past few weeks. We'll see if that carries over to his draft position.

OLB - Vic Beasley - Clemson
I am so ridiculously high on Vic Beasley for this year. I want the Bears to get him at number seven so badly. He'll probably be available, and the Bears will probably pass on him for Randy Gregory or something stupid like that, but man, Vic Beasley is fun to watch, and I'd really enjoy watching him on a team that I cheer for.

ILB - Eric Kendricks - UCLA
I talked about him yesterday, and the point stands. Inside linebackers are underrated right now on the whole, and if you have a chance to get a guy with the floor of a good player and the ceiling of a pro bowler, it is a no brainer to take advantage. This guy has great instincts, and he makes plays, which is the single best skill at translating to the next level.

CB - Senquez Golson - Ole Miss
I'll admit that I haven't done enough studying on later round guys to make any sort of proclamation, but I have heard some good things about Senquez Golson, who I will support since he is my height and had good college production (definitely supporting more for the former than the latter).

Tomorrow, we'll look at the opposite end of the spectrum with the most overrated players in this draft.

Brett Hundley - 2015 NFL Draft Scouting Report

With the college football season over, the 2015 NFL Draft season immediately starts up to fill that void. I plan to take a look at all of the top quarterback prospects but will also be willing to take suggestions if there are prospects at other positions that you would like to see analyzed. But my bread and butter is quarterback play (a position I still feel is underrated in the draft). Today, I am taking a look at UCLA Bruins Quarterback, Brett Hundley.

Brett Hundley is the most interesting prospect who is generating the least amount of buzz. Almost all buzz is dedicated to Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, as they are universally regarded as the top two prospects in the draft. Still, there were plenty of times before this year where Hundley was also seen as a possible top pick in the draft. He didn't really regress during his final year at UCLA, but he also didn't progress much either, and it gave people plenty of time to find the holes in his skill-set. So now the questions become, has the scouting community gone too far, and could Hundley be the answer for teams looking for a quarterback who miss out on the big two? Thanks to Draft Breakdown, I was able to look at his 2014 games against Arizona, USC, and Utah. Unfortunately, Draft Breakdown changed how they do their videos, and since I'm not tech savvy, I can't get them to embed on the blog, so I'll try to be more colorful with my words to paint a beautiful picture of what Hundley does as a prospect. 

Reads
Hundley is able to read a field well, as he stays on his toes and bounces from one read to the next. He's very light on his feet, so he is able to bounce on his toes as he scans from one side of the field to the other. He showed the ability to scan the field and make the necessary throws when he recognizes an open receiver. For as low as people are on Hundley, I was shocked at how smooth he was in his progressions as that is one of the most common aspects that college quarterbacks struggle with. 

Pocket Presence

The Utah game stood out for all the wrong reasons when it came to pocket presence. He exhibited absolutely no feel for pressure, and he repeatedly stood in the pocket while he waited for a sack (the second play from the Utah game is a great example). It was inexplicable at times, as it looked like a video game where you accidentally drop the controller, and although you are scrambling to regain control, your quarterback on the screen just stands there and helplessly takes the sack. 

I have never seen a quarterback be more hesitant than Hundley was in the Utah game. He just held onto that ball like he was waiting for the sack to come. The only time he scrambled was when he slipped a pass rusher and just started to move forward from that. Otherwise, he just sat there, waiting for a single guy to get open before getting taken down. There was one time where Utah sent a double A gap blitz, and Hundley's body language clearly states, "Aw shit," as he just buries his head and takes what's coming to him.

The positive with Hundley is that the Utah game was only the second conference game where the USC game was near the end of the season, and he showed tremendous progress between those two games. Hundley admitted that he was purposely trying to stay in the pocket to display his skills to NFL scouts, but although it's not a good idea to always bail, he can't just stay there and take sacks either, so finding a balance will be essential.

He does display the ability to step up in the pocket and make throws, but even when he does that, he doesn't always work to the best possible place to make his throws as he'll step up but into a pretty tight area. A lot of times, he has just enough room to make his throw, but if he moves in a slightly different angle, he would have a much cleaner look.

If you want to see the most positive play from Hundley, you can find it at 5:35 of the game against USC. The throw is nothing special, but the way he is able to step up in the pocket to deliver the ball gives me that hope that he may be able to learn enough pocket presence to become a viable starting quarterback in the NFL. He actually probably should have had more room, but Leonard Williams put on a really slick spin move to go from outside to inside the offensive tackle, but Hundley was still able to fire the ball into his receiver without being disrupted.

Another positive factor is when he is able to work outside of the pocket, he can escape pressure while still keeping his eyes on targets down the field.

Ball Security
Another thing that I noticed was a consistent fumbling issue. It was only three games, but he struggled with taking snaps, handoffs, and holding onto the ball when running. It's not something I put a lot of stock in for quarterbacks, because I think all of these issues can be solved, but it is something to keep an eye on. 

Mobility
Brett Hundley is a very good athlete, but he is not a great scrambling quarterback as he has terrible vision as a runner.

Just runs into the defense instead of cutting up field to get a first down.

Arm
First off, he has the arm strength and enough accuracy to make all the necessary throws. I cannot imagine that anyone will be questioning his arm capabilities when evaluating him. With that said, he wasn't always able to show off his skill-set. UCLA's offense was not designed to take advantage of space over the middle as they were far more likely to attack the sidelines, but in the opportunities that he was given, Hundley does a nice job of putting the ball either in front of his receivers or away from defenders on his throws over the middle. This might be a hidden strength that he was not able to fully take advantage of during college because of scheme.

I mentioned his ability to read the field above, but something else that he does incredibly well is using his eyes to move defenders. There were multiple examples of him looking at one side of the field to move the safety over before bouncing to the other direction and throwing a deep ball to his receiver who was covered by a corner with no help over the top. That is an incredibly valuable skill that will transition well to the next level.

Overall
I'll admit to being down on him far before most people were, but it has gotten to the point where people are going too far in their criticisms of him. I will admit that I got angry as I watched him take sack after sack against Utah, but he also laid out two of the best deep balls you will ever see, one of which where the process was even better than the throw.

I'm about to drop the meanest comparison possible on him, so brace yourselves...he reminds me of Blaine Gabbert. They are very similar in build, athleticism, and their throwing capabilities. Now, I was incredibly low on Gabbert out of college, but I'm actually much higher on Hundley, because of a few key differences. The biggest one is that Gabbert never learned to scan a field. His entire offense was high-low reads, and he was in bad shape if that wasn't open. Hundley is very smooth in reading the field and also showed the ability to move safeties with his eyes. The latter is more subtle, but it is how they deal with pressure. They are both terrible at it, but in different ways. Hundley just lacks awareness when it comes to a rush but shows flashes of feeling things and moving away from pressure. Gabbert felt pressure but his instincts told him to bail and it led him to sprint backwards a lot of times. Obviously, Gabbert was a total bust, but Hundley has shown flashes of potential in his area of weakness. I don't know if pocket awareness is something that Brett Hundley can learn, but if it's the end of the first round and I need a quarterback, I'm probably going to be willing to find out.

Quarterback Prospect Rankings:
1. Jameis Winston - Florida State
2. Brett Hundley - UCLA
3. Shane Carden - East Carolina
4. Bryce Petty - Baylor
5. Sean Mannion - Oregon State
6. Garrett Grayson - Colorado State
7. Blake Sims - Alabama

Scouting Week 9 of College Football

Oh, Jameis Winston. You're very good at football. He has great placement on his balls. He also is thinking far ahead of most college (and even some pro) quarterbacks in the way that he will throw balls to protect his receivers. He threw a crossing route behind his receiver, and it saved his receiver from getting laid out by an NC State defensive back. Still, it's really hard to do much judging of him when his team is just dominating their opponents. Maybe Miami will give him a tough game next week, but I'm kind of doubting it.

Sammy Watkins is incredibly smooth as a receiver. The one thing that stood out for Alshon Jeffrey that Watkins has is the way he attacks the ball with his hands instead of waiting for it to come to him. Jeffrey has been so good that some people view him as the Bears true #1 receiver. I'm not quite ready to go there with him, but Watkins might be Jeffrey with more athleticism. He's just an incredibly reliable target.

Tajh Boyd, on the other hand, is just fine. He greatly benefits from the weapons around him, and he seems to lack a great feel for things. Last week, he lost the ball on a corner blitz when he was naturally rolling away from that blitz. This week, he failed to handle pressure repeatedly. He loses track of what is around him when he feels pressure, and he only survives on pure athleticism, which will not work at the next level.

AJ McCarron, and everyone on Alabama, drives me crazy, because there is just so much talent on that team that they can completely outclass opponents. How much credit does McCarron deserve? As I'm typing this, Christion Jones just took an end around for five yards; unsatisfied, he completely reversed field, and ended up picking up an additional 15. McCarron places his balls really well, but his receivers get so open that he really doesn't need to rocket anything in there.

From what I've seen, I would compare him to Andy Dalton, where he has the skillset to be competent at the next level. An interesting question is whether Andy Dalton was a good pick for the Bengals. He's good enough to guide them to the playoffs with the help of the best receiver in the league, a good offensive line, and a very good defense. I'm really not sure if that's a compliment or an insult. He's not Blaine Gabbert, which is good, but is their ceiling with a guy like him at QB a loss in the divisional round of the playoffs?

Anthony Barr is baffling me. He always takes advantage of mistakes, but it seems like he only makes plays off of mistakes. He's got a great speed rush, so if the offensive line doesn't get a good kick out in their initial set, he will blow right by them. I can't tell if his speed is so great that he makes people look like they have terrible technique or if his speed just kills terrible technique. He also has a great engine, and he does just keep moving and finding a way to make plays. I could see him being a lot like Aldon Smith, who is a guy I totally whiffed on. Before the draft, I'm going to try to watch tape from both guys to see if I am missing something on prospects like this.

Marcus Mariota is one guy who I have been waiting to study. I'm still not nearly as high on him as others seem to be. The first thing that leaps out is that he is an incredible athlete. His down field throws left a lot to be desired. In the second quarter, he completed a deep out, but he under threw it and it almost gave the defensive back a play on the ball. They turned the ball over on downs when he badly overthrew a receiver in the end zone. Too often, he just tries to fire the ball in there, but he has the ability to put touch on the ball. His touchdown pass in the game was a really nice ball that he made look very easy. He does do a good job of going through his reads. He doesn't panic and does a good job of setting and throwing. Oregon has a great offense, and that makes things easy on Mariota. Right now, I see him as a rich man's Kaepernick, so he definitely has first round value. Seeing how he handles pressure will provide a better idea of how high in the first round he should go.

Brett Hundley is just not impressive. I saw major issues when I watched him against Nebraska, and I continue to have the same concerns. The good about Hundley is obvious. He's athletic, and he has good arm strength. The most brutal part of his game was a terrible throw inside the red zone that led to an easy pick from Oregon. Hundley's touchdown pass before the end of the half was a nice ball, but that is where he succeeds. It was a throw over the middle where he was able to go to his first read. He recognized the blitz and knew that if his receiver was able to break inside the cornerback that it was just going to be a pitch and catch at that point. He also doesn't have a great feel inside the pocket as sometimes he panics when it is not necessary and other times he does not notice a defender nearby. The endzone camera would help on this, but he seemed to lock into receivers at times and fail completely on going through his progressions before trying to run. He zeroes in on a guy, which gives the safety a chance to break on routes, so instead of waiting for a receiver to get open, he telegraphs it so much that the coverage can adjust to his eyes. This is the reason he got picked off at the beginning of the fourth quarter, because the man in coverage was able to break on the pass before he even threw it. I don't hate him as a prospect, but I do think he could use another year, possibly two, in college to refine his game. If he came out this year, a team would really be gambling on a lot of different things coming together for him to work out at the next level.

DeAnthony Thomas is a guy who is dangerous in space, and I think if he is utilized correctly, he can be an impact player, but he's far more Darren Sproles than Warrick Dunn. I just don't see an every down back in him, and he has to be in a system that is designed for success.

I was digging Jordan Zumwalt, as there was a drive where he was basically trying to murder everyone on Oregon. He was always around the ball, and that guy is a player.

I love Brandin Cooks. I was only able to catch the oregon State-Stanford game at the bar, but that dude is a player. Very elusive and very good routes, finds holes in the defense and is a great asset for a quarterback. 

7 College Football Thoughts For Week 3 - Scouting Quarterbacks

1. First off, I was very underwhelmed by Brett Hundley. I know he won the game and by a large margin, but Nebraska's defense is just terrible. Hundley was just locking in on receivers and hesitating for a split second before throwing the ball. If the defense was reading his eyes at all, they were able to break on the ball before it was even in the air. When he actually did scan the field, it was never smooth and looked very robotic.

Hundley did show good mobility throughout the game and he seemed to have decent pocket awareness. One thing that I do wonder is whether he might be better with more pressure. He seemed to hold onto the ball long, because he had no pressure and maybe he would make quicker decisions and throws if he was forced to.

The good news is that he does have a good arm on him. He threw some nice balls and showed good accuracy for the most part. I would have liked to see more routes where he was forced to lead his receivers, but they threw a lot of curls and comebacks throughout the game. His touchdown pass down the near sideline was a thing of beauty.

2. Taylor Martinez...no. In all seriousness, he does a nice job in that offense, and he was pretty accurate early on, but the T-Magic stopped working in the second half. Also, he will always have two games a year where it's just brutal to watch him. Also, the arm strength isn't there for him to be a real quarterback prospect at the next level.

3. Teddy Bridgewater, on the other hand, is fun to watch. He is so smooth. He is able to go through his reads, and is willing to throw the ball away if nothing is there. Kentucky did a really nice job of taking away his first options and not letting him get anything deep, but he was willing to check down and take the gains that were open underneath. On top of that, he does some nice work with his play action where he will really hold that ball out until the last possible moment before keeping it for the pass play. Basically, just about everything about him is fantastic. He leads people  in stride, can throw it down field, it's all there. I love Clowney, but I have a very tough time believing that Bridgewater won't be the first pick in the draft.

4. For Blake Bell, I didn't watch a ton of the game, but man, that guy really floats his balls down the field. That won't work at the next level, but he was pretty damn accurate from what I saw, and if he can keep that up, Oklahoma has a good shot at the Big 12 title. He's not much of a prospect at the next level, but it's still fine to enjoy him for what he is.

5. Johnny Manziel was pretty impressive early on. Showing great accuracy when throwing the ball down the field. He was just tearing up Alabama with man-to-man, because he was either finding an open guy or was able to scramble, because everyone in coverage had their back to him. He was just taking his time and carving things up. His passes were incredibly accurate. It was all good.

Okay, so that stupid throw. It was 3rd and 8, so even if it gets picked, it doesn't really cost them that much, because they were going to be too far out for a field goal. They're looking at a pooch punt or a 4th and 8, which, even though he was rolling, is not an easy conversion. That being said, I think Johnny Manziel is just a madman who doesn't give a shit about anything, and none of that was actually going through his head. He really just wanted to make a play.

His interception in the end zone wasn't that bad. Not a great throw, but it wasn't done out of cockiness, as the CBS announcers stated. He just overthrew it a little and his receiver badly misjudged it. His interception at the beginning of the third quarter was much worse as he forced a ball into coverage, under threw the pass, and paid for it on a tip. His problem was that he was so successful throwing the ball down the field early on that he just kept doing it, and it eventually caught up to him. Also, the breaks just did not go their way, as Alabama really only stopped them with good defense on one drive in the first half. Otherwise, they were hurt by penalties, that first interception, and running out of time at the end of the half.

6. A.J. McCarron is solid in all aspects of the game. The arm strength is not going to wow you, but he knows what he's doing out there. He makes quick decisions in everything that he does. He also does a very good job of reading a defense before the ball is snapped to put him in a position to succeed. The toughest thing about scouting McCarron is he is surrounded by players on offense that are way better than any players he could face on defense. This is just as unique of a situation as trying to scout Marcus Mariota and the offense that Oregon runs to give them an advantage. I don't think he's been as good this year as he was last year, but the core skills are there for him to be successful.

7. I have heard Marcus Mariota rumored as a top QB prospect, and although I like him for the Eagles at the next level, I do not see him as a big time prospect for most teams. He's a fine thrower, but it is tough to put pressure on Oregon, and he showed an extreme lack of pocket awareness against Tennessee. I'll admit to seeing only about five plays from him in that game, but those are my initial thoughts from my limited view of him.