Reviewing My Fantasy Football Draft - Part 1

My latest fantasy football draft happened Monday night. For the uninformed, it is part of a three sport league with baseball and basketball, and you can trade between sports. I am an impatient person, so I am always wheeling and dealing, and this draft would be no different, as I moved up from 10 to the top overall pick a half hour before the draft. Was it a good deal? Hell, I didn't know at the time, but it was a deal, and it fed my addiction which is all that matters. But we'll get to the details of that later. Let's break down the first five rounds, because I need to post something before the season actually gets going later tonight.

Round 1
1 Wegher Bombs RB Le'Veon Bell Pit
2 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President RB Adrian Peterson Min
3 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Eddie Lacy GB
4 Graham Cracker RB Jamaal Charles KC
5 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Antonio Brown Pit
6 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Marshawn Lynch Sea
7 Hot Joel RB Matt Forte Chi
8 Run And Hyde RB C.J. Anderson Den
9 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap RB DeMarco Murray Phi
10 Deez Nuts TE Rob Gronkowski NE
11 Geriatric All Stars WR Dez Bryant Dal
12 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR Demaryius Thomas Den

Best Pick: Dez Bryant
I had Dez as the sixth best guy in the draft. That is partially because I underestimate Marshawn Lynch every year, but I just don’t see much of a chance of Dez not producing as a top-5 receiver this year and he has a very good shot at being at the top of the list. I also really liked the Eddie Lacy pick, as the Packers have a very good offensive line, and Rodgers has less receiving threats with Nelson out for the year. I was slightly worried about his injury history, and that’s what stopped me from going in that direction, but I could easily see him as the top back this year.

Worst Pick: Rob Gronkowski
You really have to nitpick to find faults in first round picks. Rob Gronkowski will be the highest scoring tight end this season, as long as he can stay healthy. That second part is what concerns me, because he has dealt with numerous injuries, some quite serious, so it really makes his health the biggest concern of anyone drafted in the first round.

My Pick: Le’Veon Bell
As I said earlier, I was between Bell and Lacy, but I think the Pittsburgh offensive line has steadily improved where they are not much worse than the Packers (although not having Pouncey early on will not help), and even though he misses two games early, I like his durability and production to be the best fantasy running back during those last 14 weeks of the season.

Round 2
13 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR Julio Jones Atl
14 Geriatric All Stars RB LeSean McCoy Buf
15 Wegher Bombs WR Calvin Johnson Det
16 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
17 Run And Hyde RB Carlos Hyde SF
18 Hot Joel WR A.J. Green Cin
19 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Randall Cobb GB
20 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR T.Y. Hilton Ind
21 Graham Cracker QB Aaron Rodgers GB
22 You Just Have To BELLieve! QB Andrew Luck Ind
23 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President RB Lamar Miller Mia
24 Deez Nuts RB Alfred Morris Wsh

Keepers: Andrew Luck

Best Pick: Lamar Miller
Everybody raves about how great the Chip Kelly offense is for running backs in Philadelphia, but Miami is basically attempting to do the same thing and nobody talks about how great things are for Lamar Miller. Miller goes into the season as the clear lead back in this offense, and when he got carries, he put up impressive numbers. I don’t see why his output wouldn’t increase this year, and there’s a good chance he puts up first round stats for a second round cost.

Worst Pick: T.Y. Hilton
I pretty much liked all of the receivers taken in this round…except for T.Y. Hilton. It is nothing against him as a player, but the Colts have way more weapons this year than they had last season, so the ball is going to be spread around. I just don’t see him quite on the level of the other receivers in this round.

My Pick: Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson was hurt for most of the season last year and still put up pretty impressive numbers. He’s a freak of nature, so if he’s fully healthy this season, he should have no issue being a top-5 receiver and making my opponents miserable all year long.

Round 3
25 Deez Nuts RB Melvin Gordon SD
26 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Emmanuel Sanders Den
27 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Alshon Jeffery Chi
28 Graham Cracker TE Jimmy Graham Sea
29 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks QB Peyton Manning Den
30 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman QB Cam Newton Car
31 Hot Joel RB Justin Forsett Bal
32 Run And Hyde QB Drew Brees NO
33 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap RB Mark Ingram NO
34 Deez Nuts WR Amari Cooper Oak
35 Geriatric All Stars RB Frank Gore Ind
36 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Latavius Murray Oak

Keepers: Cam Newton (Yes, somebody kept Cam Newton for a third round pick. Yes, Cam Newton was projected to be a tenth round pick. Yes, nothing made me smile wider than when I got the email notifying me of the decision, especially since the guy passed up keeping Carlos Hyde for a seventh rounder in order to keep Cam)

Best Pick: Alshon Jeffery
I don’t know why Alshon Jeffery is slipping to 27, but that’s excellent value at that point. Jay Cutler loves number one receivers more than he hates vaccinations. There is no one to threaten his spot at the top, and although he’s been dealing with some minor nagging injuries, it sounds like with the rest he has gotten, he’ll be at full strength going into the regular season.

Worst Pick: Peyton Manning
This is obviously in the non-Cam Newton keeper category. I’m just very down on Manning this year, and not in the fact that I think he’s done, but I just don’t think he’s going to be lighting up scoreboards this year under Gary Kubiak. They are definitely running the ball more, so I see Manning having Tom Brady like numbers. He’ll be a top-10 guy, but there’s a good chance he isn’t in the top-5. There were plenty of quarterbacks that I see producing similar numbers that are going many rounds later in the draft.

My Pick: Nobody
Since I was originally gifted the 10th pick in the draft, I decided to trade up by giving up my first, third, and ninth round pick for the first pick in the draft, along with a sixth and eighth rounder. I feel good about the talent I was able to acquire and am happy that I made the trade.

Round 4
37 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Arian Foster Hou
38 Geriatric All Stars WR Golden Tate Det
39 Wegher Bombs RB Todd Gurley StL
40 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap QB Tom Brady NE
41 Run And Hyde RB T.J. Yeldon Jac
42 Hot Joel WR Keenan Allen SD
43 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Davante Adams GB
44 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Joseph Randle Dal
45 Graham Cracker WR Andre Johnson Ind
46 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Andre Ellington Ari
47 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Julian Edelman NE
48 Deez Nuts RB Jonathan Stewart Car

Best Pick: Arian Foster
If Arian Foster was completely healthy going into this season, he’s a first round pick. His injury is nothing to scoff at, but it looks like he’ll be ready to go by week 2 or 3. Yes, injuries are an extra concern for Foster, but at that point in the draft, there are no sure things, and he was by far the most proven commodity available.

Worst Pick: Tom Brady
As you can probably tell, I was not a big fan of taking quarterbacks early this year. Can you really expect Tom Brady to perform better than Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, or Philip Rivers? Those guys are going 2, 3, and 5 rounds later respectively than Brady. And I think everyone keeps thinking back to the time he had Randy Moss and set the world on fire, but the Patriots do not have that receiving corps anymore. Yes, Gronk is an absolute beast, but as I said earlier, he’s not the healthiest guy in the world. I just see his best case scenario as meeting this draft spot with a good chance that he falls short.

My Pick: Todd Gurley
Holy shit is my team going to suck the first couple weeks. Todd Gurley wasn’t really a guy I was targeting in drafts as he didn’t end up on my other two squads, but that doesn’t mean I don’t love me some Todd Gurley. It’s just that in other drafts, I liked other guys more when I was drafting. Todd Gurley is legit, and he does everything you need a running back to do well. He can catch passes, he can block, and most importantly, he can run like an absolute beast. He looks like Adrian Peterson, and considering how well that guy came back from his knee injury, I think that after the Rams have a bye in week 6, he’s going to turn on the jets and be a fantasy monster. The Rams wouldn’t have used a first round pick on him if they thought anything less.

But yes, I’m really just hoping for a .500 record early in the season considering my issues at running back.

Round 5
49 Deez Nuts WR Brandon Marshall NYJ
50 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Vincent Jackson TB
51 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Chris Ivory NYJ
52 Graham Cracker RB Joique Bell Det
53 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Doug Martin TB
54 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Jarvis Landry Mia
55 Hot Joel WR Jeremy Maclin KC
56 Run And Hyde WR Nelson Agholor Phi
57 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap WR DeSean Jackson Wsh
58 Wegher Bombs WR Sammy Watkins Buf
59 Geriatric All Stars RB Rashad Jennings NYG
60 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR DeAndre Hopkins Hou

Keepers: Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins

Best Pick: Doug Martin
I am easily influenced by seeing people do good things in person, and Doug Martin was off the chain in the Buccaneers second preseason game that I attended. He was finding holes and exploding through them with quickness that he hasn’t had since his rookie year. I think the Muscle Hamster is back, and I am not happy that he is not a part of my team.

Worst Pick: Jarvis Landry
I really like Jarvis Landry, but the Dolphins added a ton of receiving options this offseason, and he’s probably not going to be a prime red zone target with his skills. I think he’s more in the range of possible flex option, first guy off the bench as opposed to the true starting receiver that were drafted in this round. I have a hard time imagining Jarvis Landry putting up bigger numbers than Jeremy Maclin.

My Pick: Sammy Watkins
Sammy Watkins was one of my two keepers for the year, and it was a bit of a borderline call. Hypothetically, he may have been available at this time, and I may have been able to get somebody I liked better. But looking at what was available, there is a good chance he wouldn’t have been there, and I definitely would have taken him had he been there. I think Watkins is getting underrated, partly because of injuries last year, and partly because of the Buffalo quarterback situation. I like Kyle Orton quite a bit, but I don’t think Tyrod Taylor is going to be a tremendous step backwards for this offense, and I could see Sammy Watkins taking a tremendous step forward.

I'll be back with part two as soon as I can. That, as you may have guessed, will be followed by part three.

11 Thoughts on Iowa vs. Northwestern

1. I'm going into this game with high hopes, and if there is one thing Northwestern is known for, it is destroying Iowa's hopes with stupid luck and chicanery.

2. I love when Iowa plays at a fast pace, because it is unlike anything any other team does. They don't spread teams out; they keep things even tighter and just pound the ball to help set up their play action. It is aesthetically pleasing for somebody who loves watching a good run game.

3. Rudock is very good at running the sneak. If they don't stack the middle, he shoots in right behind his center. If they do stack the middle, he just takes his time and goes behind his guard or tackle depending on where he can find some space. A guy like Cam Newton will always be great at sneaks with his athleticism and leg power, but being patient works for less athletic quarterbacks. Tom Brady is an excellent example of this, but I promise this will be the only Brady/Rudock comparison I make today.

4. Iowa used James Morris as a spy this week, which is a way better use of a fourth rusher considering the lack of rush they have been able to generate with their defensive line. Learning lessons from last week is a very positive step forward. It also doesn't hurt that he made a great play on a delayed rush with a sack on Colter.

5. Northwestern showed that although Iowa can handle power running, speed running with misdirection can pick up yardage, especially if the quarterback is a key part of the running game.

6. It is very tough for me to be critical of Iowa's strategies, because it's never poor; it's just often not good enough. That is why it seems as though any time an offense gets a penalty, they can never recover to get that first down. Teams can get ten yards on Iowa, but they'd shut teams down if they changed the rules to go 12 yards.

7. Meyer missed the kick against Northwestern, because these things always happen against Northwestern. He never had a chance.

8. I am glad that even Kirk pointed out that Rudock made the right call on his interception at the end of the game. Trying to thread the needle there is well worth the risk, as an interception did not put Iowa in any danger, and if he is able to complete it, they are set up to try a field goal as time expires in regulation. It's a situation where stats can be deceiving.

9. The touchdown pass to Fiedorowicz was a well designed play. In man coverage, you know the man in coverage has to protect on inside breaking routes, so all he had to do was loft it out there  and count on his tight end having a step on his man.

10. Desmond King makes plays. I am super excited about his future, as he may be the first cornerback since Jovon Johnson who will get crunk on the field.

11. 5-3 is very solid. This team plays everybody tough, and nobody is claiming that Ferentz should be fired. It's a good time to be a Hawkeye.

A New Era of Quarterback Development

One of the hot stories in the NFL has been how well the rookies have performed this year. There was a similar story last year as people were rightfully impressed with what players like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton did last year. There is no denying it; these guys have far exceeded my expectations in their rookie year. 

But I don't think this means that we're in some golden age for quarterbacks. I think that the NFL has just done a much better job with quarterback development. One huge cause is the rise of passing in college football. It was only about 15 years ago when Nebraska was kicking the shit out of people using the option with players like Eric Crouch and Tommie Frazier (Note: If a Nebraska fan is reading this, it was 15 years ago, get over yourselves). College offenses have become much more complicated, and it has no doubt helped quarterback development. 

The other big key has been that offensive coordinators are adjusting their schemes to more closely align with what they were successful with during college. It has created new schemes in the NFL, because the NFL is following college football's lead on innovation. That was definitely not the case until very recently, but college coaches have more freedom to experiment and fail, where NFL coaches have every decision questioned.

But just because these guys are doing so well in their rookie year does not mean that they are going to become superstars. I feel like Andrew Luck is the only guy who I would be shocked if he did not somehow become a superstar quarterback. Everybody else has question marks in my mind. I will openly admit that I have loved Andrew Luck since the beginning of his sophomore year, and I do mean that in a slightly gay way, because watching him pick apart defenses does give me a chub on occasions.

I am not completely sold on RGIII. And the reason has to do with Cam Newton's step back this year. These two are far, far different quarterbacks, but they do both rely on their running abilities to gain yards and open up passing opportunities. RGIII does it with pure speed, and Newton does it with power and a good amount of speed. But the one thing they have in common is that they are in a scheme that is new to most NFL defenses. It is something that they are not running up against with other teams. 

It's a lot like going up against Georgia Tech in college. Their spread option causes opponents a lot of issues, not because of the talent on the field as much as how different it is to face than any other college offense. It takes a while to get used to all of that misdirection, and it can really throw off defenses. But when Iowa played them in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, their offense got overwhelmed as the Hawkeyes had enough time to prepare for their offense and dominated.

Obviously, NFL defenses are not going to have six consecutive bye weeks to prepare for a team, but, for the most part, there are better coaches in the NFL than college. They are going to find things to pick up on and strategies to counteract what is working for the Redskins. I think RGIII is good enough to counter the counter, because his accuracy is far better than Newton's, but I could see there being an issue. It's very likely he becomes a great quarterback, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was more in the top 15 starters than the top 5. 

With Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Brandon Weeden, they have shown flashes of being good quarterbacks (Weeden less than the other two), but they are also quarterbacks who have benefited from their coaches designing offenses to emphasize their strengths. When I type that sentence, it is really amazing that teams were not doing this before, but teams more tried to find quarterbacks who would fit in their system than making a system that fit them. Out of these three guys, I would say that Tannehill has the best shot of being a top 10 quarterback, and I give him a 25% chance of doing that. That sounds bad, but it is really tough to become a top 10 quarterback these days. Outside of Blaine Gabbert, there are not many bad quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, a guy like Joe Flacco goes to the playoffs every year, and you could make the argument that he is not one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league. 

It's too early to get super excited about what is happening with these guys. They are having better rookie years than their predecessors, but they are in a different era than those guys. The second year is the new rookie year, where if guys are succeeding in year two, it is time to be impressed...except for with Andrew Luck, because he's the greatest.

The Falsities of College Football

Today, I perform a public service announcement. I am going to let you know about all the lies that are being spread by the national pundits. I figured I would at least give one note on every BCS Conference, although some things will be handled in more depth than others. So sit back, read on, and learn a few things about college football; it'll help you impress the ladies.


Marcus Coker Turned His Season Around During the Northwestern Game
No, he did it during the Penn State game. It's just that Penn State's defense is really good, and people like to judge running backs by their stats. But if you saw him run during that game, you saw the Coker that has been so obviously there during Iowa's last two games. He ran hard and was always falling forward. That is what the Hawkeyes need from Coker, and it all started against Penn State, not Northwestern.

The Big East Isn't a Giant Mess of Hot Garbage.
No, it is. Seriously, if the Conference USA and Mountain West can form a super conference, then the Big East should join with the MAC to create one giant mess of hot garbage. I don't understand how this is a BCS Conference.

Kirk Cousins is Such a Great Quarterback
False. This is so very untrue it is painful anytime I hear it. Does Kirk Cousins give nice speeches? Yes. Does he have crystal blue eyes? Yes, he definitely does. I cannot take either of these things away from him. Unfortunately, neither of these things matter when it comes to judging quarterbacks. He has looked awful this entire season. He makes bad decisions, he has bad ball placement, and overall, I do not trust him in any facet of the game. Was he 22/31 for 290 yards and 3 TDs against Wisconsin? Yes, and Wisconsin's defense is not good in any way. I was listening to the Solid Verbal podcast, and they made an excellent point about the final drive for Michigan State against Wisconsin. Kirk Cousins didn't look like a savvy leader rallying his troops; he looked terrified. Kirk Cousins did not win that game, special teams won that game.

Oklahoma State is the Team to Beat in the Big 12
Sorry OSU, but it's still Oklahoma. I know they have already lost a game in a pathetic effort against Texas Tech. But they are still the best team in the conference. They lost for one simple reason: No Tom Wort. Now most people don't see Wort as their best linebacker, and honestly, he's not, but he is their most ULTIMATE linebacker.

The Ultimate Warrior and him have a love affair going on, and with the power of the Ultimate Warrior behind the Sooners, they are basically an unstoppable force.

LSU Will Beat Alabama - Alabama Will Beat LSU
Anybody who is saying this definitively is out of their mind. Obviously one of these groups will be right, but that doesn't mean they know what they are talking about. It means they made the right guess. It is going to be a very good game, so don't act like you know what's going to happen. Just sit back and enjoy some good football.

Suck For Luck 
This has more to do with professional teams, but it does involve a college player in Andrew Luck, so I figured it would fit. No NFL team is sucking for Luck. I was on the Luck bandwagon after his Freshman year, because he's really, really good, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that. He is BY FAR the best quarterback prospect to come out of college in the last decade.

What people don't understand is that this doesn't mean he is going to come into the league and be a top-five quarterback. In fact, I will be very surprised if he does anywhere near as well as Cam Newton has done so far. Does that make Cam Newton a better QB? No, not in my opinion. Cam Newton has a unique skillset, and that will take NFL Defenses time to adjust to it, and because of that, I think Newton will struggle more as this season goes on.

Um, yeah, what was I talking about again? Oh yeah, sucking for Luck. It makes no sense for a player to not try so they can get the first pick in the draft, because they might get replaced if they don't perform. It makes no sense for coaches to lose on purpose, because they will lose their job. Nobody is sucking for Luck.

And next year, nobody will be Losing More For Lattimore (And if I hear that expression next year, I will probably start cutting myself).

-Joe

P.S. Let's see how Jose Canseco is doing:
@JoseCanseco
Maybe I was the babe Ruth of the 80's
Just as I suspected, he's still doing great.

The Most Underrated Quarterback In The 2011 NFL Draft

Although I said I was going to write this last week, some things happened, and this post got delayed a week, but that only makes it stronger as the most underrated quarterback in the 2011 NFL Draft finally had his pro day to impress the scouts.  Scouts from all 32 teams went to this workout, if you subtract 31 teams from that number. But at least the Seahawks showed up. That's right, the guy I see as horribly underrated is a National Champion Quarterback, from The University of Alabama, G-Mac, Greg McElroy.

Greg McElroy has gotten the most pre-draft for hype for something that had nothing to do with slinging the pigskin as it was reported that he got a 48 (since changed to a 43) on the Wonderlic. Does this make him a better quarterback prospect? Not in my opinion. The Wonderlic is issued because it is supposed to measure how well a person can process information. I tmight be successful in that, but figuring out when a train will reach Chicago is quite a bit different than figuring out who to throw it to when faced with a zone blitz. I don't care if any quarterback is a genius, he'll never be The Genius.

Since no quarterback could ever be The Genius, let's focus on what they can be. Greg McElroy led Alabama to a national championship in 2009 (technically, they won the title in 2010, but the years will refer to the season that they played their regular season games in). Yes, he had a ton of talent around him, but when they needed him to make a play, he was able to do it. He threw 17 touchdowns, six interceptions, while completing 60.6% of his passes. That's a good year. It's not great, but it was enough to win a national title, so it'd be awfully hard to complain about it.

Even though 2010 did not lead to a national title, McElroy was definitely not the problem. He threw 19 touchdowns, five interceptions, improved his completion percentage to 70.6 while throwing for over 50 yards more per game. He improved in every single way. Somehow, nobody has any interest in this. I understand that it is unwise to take stats at face value, but I do think that you can use them to judge improvement, and it is clear that McElroy improved greatly from 2009 to 2010.

But in projecting to the next level, it doesn't matter how good of a college quarterback he was, it matters how good of a pro quarteback he can be. The stats show that he threw accurately and didn't hurt his team with mistakes, but not much else. The biggest question with McElroy is his arm strength. He doesn't have Jake Locker's arm strength, and he never will, but I do think that it is underrated by most. When I watched him play this season, I thought he put good zip on the ball on outs and slants. His deep ball has a little flutter on it, but it's not bad, and he puts enough drive on the football to make defenses pay if they try to cheat up on him.

I know this is a highlight video, but if he couldn't throw the deep ball, they wouldn't be able to show this many examples of solid deep balls. I'll admit there's a few weaker ones in there, but it still shows he has the arm strength to get the ball down field at the next level (and it's the only highlight video set to music that doesn't suck).

The most impressive thing I saw from McElroy was his game against LSU. That is when he went up against the best cornerback (and best player in my opinion) in the NCAA in Patrick Peterson. Most quarterbacks would do everything in their power to avoid throwing towards Peterson, but McElroy used his number one target, Julio Jones, and were able to attack Peterson's side of the field on more than one occasion. Jones even caught a touchdown on a slant pattern with Peterson covering. Now Julio Jones is a talented receiver, but he's not going to beat Peterson without good balls from his quarterback and McElroy delivered that.

To say that McElroy is a first round talent would be excessive, even for me. I really only see Cam Newton as a first round talent. But I think McElroy is greatly underestimated as a 6th-7th round pick. I see him as having third round talent, and I'd be jumping on him in the fourth round if I needed a quarterback, or waiting until the fifth if I already have a starter in place.

Is he ever going to be a Top-5 quarterback in the league? I highly doubt it, but he's a guy you can win with, and that's pretty damn valuable in the National Football League.

-Joe

P.S. I'm really disappointed that I didn't know that you could bet on WrestleMania until after WrestleMania was over. Michael Cole had ridiculous odds.