Baseball's New Market Inefficiency

In every sport, each person wants his team to find an edge to help them gain an advantage over their competition. Basketball has used analytics, football has found ways to maximize talented square pegs as opposed to just trying to jam them in round holes, and baseball has a new market inefficiency every single year (usually it was the opposite of what was widely believed, as now using resources to build a bullpen is in as the Royals proved). The one thing that seems evident to me is the misuse of pitching prospects.

A saying that still gets used is TINSTAAPP, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Obviously, this is an exaggeration, but there is a lot of evidence that lets people know how unwise it is to fall in love with pitching prospects. They blow out their elbows, they never develop a third pitch, their velocity declines mysteriously. There are a ton of things that can go wrong.

Still, pitchers are brought along at nearly the same pace as position players. They are vastly different entities, yet they are widely treated the same. Pitchers' velocities tend to peak early on, many peak before they ever make it to the major leagues, so their hardest pitches are wasted on amateurs and minor leaguers. That is why it is imperative for teams to bring up their pitchers more quickly in order to give themselves an advantage over other teams.

Now do minor league pitchers get better with the instruction they receive there? No doubt about it, but the best coaches are at the highest levels (whether that totally makes sense is a debate for another day), so pushing them quickly will lead to the best possible instruction to maximize their abilities.

You have guys like Mark Prior and Stephen Strasburg who are ready to go straight to the major leagues from the draft. After dominating college to that extent, there is no justification for keeping a guy in the minor leagues just because that's what you do, and these guys were ones who were brought up to the majors incredibly quickly, but even that was a waste. There was no better Strasburg than the one that the Nationals signed. He was as good as he would ever be, but they wasted starts in the minor leagues. Most college first rounders are probably ready to pitch in the major leagues immediately. Could they refine some things? Yes, but their stuff is going to be taking steps back as the years go on, and not everybody gets that much better with command and mental aspects of the game to make up for that. Neither guy had to wait long, but they shouldn't have had to wait at all.

Jose Fernandez is a great example of what I'm proposing. He was brought up after one full year in the minor leagues where he never pitched above High-A. People thought they were crazy for bringing him up so quickly, and all he did was dominate the league to the tune of a 2.19 ERA. There are other guys that are plenty ready to play in the major leagues, not to that extent, but an ERA in the mid 3's could really help out teams that are struggling through their fifth starters.

The whole point of waiting to bring up prospects is to get their best years performing for your team. With position players, delaying their major league debut makes sense as they go through a lot of growing pains and tend to get better as they get deeper into their 20s before declining. With pitchers, it's different. Their raw physical abilities are peaking in their early 20s, so promoting those guys so they are using that stuff against the best competition would give teams a huge advantage. Replacing a fifth starter with a top prospect could add 2-3 wins and be the difference between slipping into the playoffs and winning a World Series or hanging out at home and wondering what could have been. Will they get injured if pushed to the major leagues? Yes, probably, but just about every pitcher gets hurt these days, and the increased danger to arms is negligible compared to the benefits a team could gain from this strategy.

There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. It sounds ridiculous, but with an aggressive promotion plan for top level pitchers, TINSTAAPP could become a wonderful reality.

Mark Prior Should Be in the Hall of Fame

I have loved Mark Prior for a long time, since 2001 to be exact. I have followed his career since then, and I remember watching the high points, and hoping for the best during the low points. I always thought he deserved another chance. I know he deserved it. Objectively, I know he doesn't deserve to be in the Hall of Fame, but subjectively, I feel like there are few players who deserve to be there more. This is a player that future generations should never forget.

Mark Prior was the reason I actually showed an interest in the MLB Draft, and I was immediately in love with the man. As a dumbass 16 year-old, I was concerned that I loved another man, but for Prior, it was totally worth it. This is a guy that pitched 138 innings, yet managed 202 strikeouts while walking just 18 batters during his Junior year at USC. He went 15-1 with a 1.69 ERA.

The Cubs had the second pick in the draft, which was a huge bummer, because there was no way that he wouldn't go number one overall. But I heard rumors that the Twins were considering not taking him, because of signing bonus demands. I had no idea that teams took cheaper players instead of the best players, so this was a huge shock to me. But I was overjoyed with the news. I remember thinking how badly the Twins shit the bed when they took a local catcher named Joe Mauer. What idiots.

But their loss was the Cubs gain, as the Cubs quickly snatched Mark Prior with the second pick. This was going to be awesome, as the Cubs could pair him with Kerry Wood and the next Pedro Martinez, Juan Cruz, and have the best 1-3 starters in baseball history.

He started his professional career in 2002, where he pitched in nine minor league games, striking out 79 batters in 51 innings, before getting called up to the big league roster. Nine games. In a perfect world, that would have been the extent of Mark Prior's time in the minor leagues. Instead he would pitch 64 games in eight different seasons over an eleven year span. This is not a perfect world.

He made his debut on May 22, 2002 and fulfilled even my insanely high expectations. He pitched six innings, had ten strikeouts, and got the win against the Pirates that day. He cruised through his rookie year with 147 strikeouts and 38 walks in 116 2/3 innings. He was only 21 years old.

In 2003, Mark Prior may have been the best pitcher in baseball. He only came in third in the NL Cy Young Award voting, but that was because Eric Gagne pitched one inning really well, and nobody knew that park factors could help a pitcher like Jason Schmidt while hurting a guy like Prior. The only thing that hurt Prior that year was some shoulder soreness in July, but it was no big deal. He had perfect mechanics, and he came back stronger than ever. At the end of July, he was 8-5 with a 3.01 ERA, and still finished 18-6, with a 2.43 ERA, struck out 245 while walking 50 in 211 1/3 innings. He went 10-1 while lowering his overall ERA by over half a run down the stretch. He wasn't just great; he was getting better.

And then there's the 2003 postseason. And everybody remembers Bartman, but that doesn't matter. What matters is 133, 116, and 119, the number of pitches Prior threw in the postseason after his first big league year. That middle number was thrown in a game the Cubs won 12-3. The cubs were already up 11-0 after five innings, yet the Cubs kept sending him out there until finally taking him out when he was unable to retire the first two batters in the eighth. I hated Dusty Baker for a long time as I looked back at those numbers, because I felt robbed. Mark Prior would never be fully healthy again.

But just because he wasn't fully healthy doesn't mean he still wasn't pretty damn good. He struck out 327 batters in 285 innings in 2004-2005. He still looked like Mark Prior but nothing was quite as crisp, and he couldn't consistently dominate like he used to. Also, he spent a lot of time on the disabled list. In 2006, the wheels came off. He had a 7.21 ERA in nine starts. The Cubs shut him down after an August 10 start against the Brewers where he gave up five runs in three innings, while striking out only one, the opposing pitcher, Doug Davis. It would be the last time he ever pitched in the major leagues.

He didn't pitch at all in 2007, 2008, or 2009. But in 2010, he pitched for the Orange County Flyers of the Golden Baseball League, striking out 22 in 11 innings with a 0.00 ERA. The Rangers gave him one minor league inning to end the year, and I still believed that he could be a valuable asset to a big league team. But it wasn't meant to be. When he pitched, he did well. From 2011-2013, with the Yankees, Red Sox, and Reds minor league affiliates, he managed an ERA of 3.66 while striking out nearly 12 batters per inning.

Unfortunately, over those three years, he only managed to pitch in 46 2/3 innings.

It is easy to look at Mark Prior's career and call it a failure. Mark Prior may even agree with that sentiment, as he stated when he retired, "I have no regrets. I did everything I could. I left it on the field, gave everything I could to it and came up short."

I agree with everything in that statement except for the very end. I'm glad he has no regrets, and this is a man who did everything he could, left it on the field, and gave everything he had to baseball. But he didn't come up short. He was a hero, and even though I was a legal adult during his greatest year, every time he pitched, I had the awe of a child. I know I'm not alone in that sentiment. And because of that, the name Mark Prior will stick with me forever.

Some may remember him as nothing more than a cautionary tale. I will remember him as what greatness truly looks like. Either way, he deserves to be remembered. Mark Prior for the Hall of Fame. 

Rebuilding The Cubs

So, over a year ago, I gave my ideas on how to fix the Cubs. You can check that out here, here, here, and here. Sadly, the way I began that piece is still relevant today, so I'll just copy and paste it to save myself time thinking of a clever opener:

The Cubs suck. They're an old, overpaid, boring team, and there's very little to like about the entire organization. They have some unmovable contracts, some tough to move contracts, and a lot of shitty players. Still, I think I could get them back in the race soon. Here is how I would do it.

I figure the Cubs are actively searching for a GM, and I cannot imagine that their search doesn't immediately start in the blogosphere, so here is my application Cubs. I hope you don't mind having more rings than fingers.

1. Hire Hott Joe as General Manager

This is an obvious first step, because without making me general manager, it's going to be tough for me to convince other teams to trade with me. Also, as much as I think Jim Hendry is a great guy, the Cubs GM position needed more Hottness, and I bring an abundance of that.

2. Trade Matt Garza to the New York Yankees for 1B Jesus Montero and OF Slade Heathcott.

Getting a prospect on the level of Jesus Montero is an awesome haul for the Cubs. The guy has huge potential and he's ready to step in and be the Cubs everyday first baseman right away. Sure, the defense may not be pretty at times, but I will gladly take that for a guy with the potential to mash. So why would the Yankees give that up for a guy who may only be a number three starter? Well, the Red Sox and Yankees are both looking for pitching this offseason, and even if they sign C.J. Wilson, they're still going to be looking for more. I will have the Red Sox and Yankees bid against each other to the point that the Yankees will even throw in Slade Heathcott as a bonus for me. Sure Heathcott hasn't shown he can hit, but he's got tools, and my Cubs will be total tool whores when it comes to our farm system.

3. 3-Way Trade
Rays Receive C Geovany Soto and P Chris Carpenter from the Cubs and 1B Yonder Alonso and SS Billy Hamilton from the Reds
Cubs Receive C Yasmani Grandal and OF Yorman Rodriguez from the Reds
Reds Receive P James Shields from the Rays and P Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs

Okay, I'll admit it. I really wanted to find a way to get Yasmani Grandal on the Cubs. At first, I created a simple deal involving Soto from the Cubs and Niemann from the Rays, but then I realized the Rays could just trade Niemann to the Reds for Grandal and cut me out of the deal altogether. Well, fuck you, Andrew Friedman, that shit ain't gonna fly you sneaky son of a bitch (Andrew, if you're reading this, that was all false bravado. Can't wait to work with you in the future, but seriously, don't you dare cut me out of this deal). So why does everybody do this?

Well I do it, because I get a rookie catcher who can come in and start right away and a prospect that is loaded with tools, so, even though he's no Todd Hundley, it's still pretty awesome for me.

The Reds get an anchor for their staff, and Dusty hates young players anyway, so they might as well trade these prospects for people who will actually get playing time. They also get Jeff Samardzija, which not only gives them a good relief arm, but also makes them favorites if the MLB starts a flag football game for All-Star festivities.

The Rays do it, because they have a plethora of starting pitching right now, and they've only got one more year with James Shields before he's a free agent. They get a reliable catcher and Carpenter hit 100 MPH on the gun on Arizona, so that's cool. And they fill a hole at first baseman/DH and get the fastest middle infield prospect in the universe.

Win-Win-Win.

4. Trade P Carlos Marmol to the Marlins for OF Logan Morrison.

The Marlins closer may not be allowed in the country. Ozzie Guillen loves Hispanic players. Carlos Marmol is a HISPANIC CLOSER. This is too good to be true. Jeff Loria is crazy enough to do it too. The Marlins get what they want, and LoMo instantly becomes a fan favorite in Chicago and probably all over the world since he will finally be playing in front of fans. Let the Internet rejoice, I have freed LoMo.

5. Trade Alfonso Soriano to the Red Sox for John Lackey.

Nobody would be crazy enough to trade for Alfonso Soriano, and nobody would be crazy enough to trade for John Lackey. Hence, there are two teams crazy enough to trade with each other. J.D. Drew's contract is up, so they can fill right field with Soriano. Lackey is persona non grata in Boston, so trade him to the Cubs where they love all players (except for Milton Bradley). Plus, with Lackey (allegedly) going through a divorce, maybe he can hit up the Wrigleyville bars and find himself a nice young lady.

6. Let Aramis Ramirez walk in free agency.

Nothing against A-Ram, but I'm not exactly focused on the next couple years when he will have the most value. We're blowing shit up here, so A-Ram can sign with a contender and win himself a World Series ring before we take over the MLB in a few years.

Okay, so I'm going to be completely honest about something. It's a good thing I wrote out my plan before following through with it, because I got to the end of this post and realized I didn't have a third baseman. Whoops. If I'm desperate, I'll give the job to Ryan Flaherty, and if I can get the Mariners to take all of his salary, I'll put Chone Figgins there, because he's scrappy, and 2012 is not a year to focus on good, so being scrappy will make us beloved.

7. Get the band back together.

Oh, you have no idea what that means? It means this. We've got Zambrano, Wood will resign for minimum wage (not major league minimum, Illinois minimum wage; that man loves the Cubs), so it's time to bring the boys back together. Mark Prior gets signed to a minor league deal, personal favorite Juan Cruz gets signed to help out the bullpen, and if Matt Clement still has a right arm, I'll throw him a minor league deal and send him to the Midwest League (yes, I know that's against MWL rules, but just roll with it). This team is not going to be good in 2012, they might as well remind people of 2003, the last Cubs team that was actually likable.

8. Brett Jackson starts the year in the Majors.

And he's playing center field, Marlon Byrd is moving over to right, LoMo in left. That's not a good outfield, but it's an outfield, and we are saving a ton of money with all of my cost-cutting maneuvers.

9. Spend in the draft and the international market like money has never been spent before.

We are going to make Bud Selig's head explode with the money that we are going to spend on amateur players. We are going to walk into a Dominican tent and make it rain on the best 16 year olds money can buy. Any signability concern in the draft will be laughed at as we draft away and meet the demands of greedy little 18 year olds. Hell, I might even hire a Canadian to go into Cuba and smuggle me some ballplayers. I probably shouldn't write that for legal purposes, but I'll just say it was a very convenient coincidence.

10. Sign Tom Gorzelanny and Rich Harden.

I love both these guys. Gorzelanny gives us a lefty for the rotation that will give us quality innings, yet nobody gives the guy any love. Rich Harden is immediately sent to the bullpen to become the greatest closer ever. I am honestly not sure if he'll ever give up a run.

Um, so what the hell does this all mean?

Even with my outrageous spending on amateur talent, I have saved a ton of money. But that's not what Cubs fans are interested in; they want to know what the product on the field looks like. With that being said, here is our lineup and starting rotation:

Batting Order:
1. RF - Marlon Byrd
2. LF - Logan Morrison
3. SS - Starlin Castro
4. 1B - Jesus Montero
5. CF - Brett Jackson
6. C - Yasmani Grandal
7. 3B - Ryan Flaherty/Chone Figgins
8. 2B - Darwin Barney
9. SP

Pitching Rotation:
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Randy Wells
3. Tom Gorzelanny
4. John Lackey
5. Carlos Zambrano

Is this a good team? Well, if everything breaks right...no, the answer is no, it's not a good team. In fact, it's quite a bad team, but this is a necessity. And it's a young team that people can get behind. They've got veteran pitching and a very young lineup. They're good for about 70 wins, which this year's team did and spent way more money than I am going to spend, but the building blocks are there for the future.

Also, I'm keeping Mike Quade as manager, and here's why: Most likely, this Cubs team has no chance of competing until 2014. I know Cubs fans aren't going to like that, so after two years of failure, I'll bring in Ryne Sandberg as manager for positive PR, and to ensure that I have three more years as GM. When the team explodes in 2014 or 2015, we'll both look like geniuses, and I will have my choice of the thoroughbred dimepieces of Chicago. Bravo me.

-Joe

P.S. Speaking of Cubs, I'm still rooting for Adam Greenberg and you should be too.