The Most Overrated Players in the 2015 NFL Draft

Yesterday, I showed my positive side by looking at the most underrated prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft. But with every yin, there must be a balancing yang, and today is that balance of negativity as I look at the most overrated prospects in the upcoming draft.

QB - Bryce Petty - Baylor
Here is my in-depth look at Petty; I've also seen a lot of love for Garrett Grayson, and he was another guy that I just couldn't get behind.

RB - Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin
I don't think Gordon is a bad runing back, but I also don't think he's worthy of a first round pick. The people saying that it's close between Gordon and Gurley have definitely watched those two guys play and are basing that purely off statistics. Melvin Gordon is the best running back to come out of Wisconsin in recent years, but is that really that great of an accomplishment? Every Wisconsin back has put up impressive numbers, but considering the success of Ron Dayne, John Clay, Montee Ball, and James White (although I am still a James White believer), it's tough to say how great of a back Gordon really is. What I'll say is I think he's good, but I'm not sure if he's any better than the second tier of running backs, so I would hold off instead of using a high pick on Gordon.

WR - Sammie Coates - Auburn
Yes, he's big, fast, and explosive as an athlete. But he can't catch, and that's, like, a really big deal for a wide receiver. There are certain things a coach can help with, but if Coates hasn't learned to reliably track a football and complete a catch at this point in his football career, it probably ain't happenin'.

Edge - Randy Gregory - Nebraska
Honestly, I think Gregory has fallen quite a ways with his failed drug test, but he was seen as a top-5 pick after the season, and I just never saw it. There's not a lot of power in him, so he's going to have to be a speed rusher, and I didn't see enough moves to give most offensive linemen trouble. Rushing is his biggest strength, and I'm not sure if it's enough to make him a full-time pass rusher.

CB - Trae Waynes - Michigan State
I don't get this guy at all. Okay, I guess I get him a little bit, he's very athletic, but there is no way this guy is a shutdown corner. I don't see him as a first round prospect, and I don't see how anybody who watched him against Baylor could think that he is. I have consistently seen receivers get open, and it's not that the receivers are doing anything special, but Waynes isn't physical and doesn't change direction very well. That's not a great combination for a cornerback.

SS - Landon Collins
I am leery of any Alabama safety. Just looking at their success at the NFL level, it seems like they are not a good bet. Safeties are really tough to scout from the sideline view, but there are already plenty of question marks about his ability to react to passes and how he will hold up in coverage. This is a weak draft for safeties, but even with the lack of top-tier talent, a first round pick is likely to be a mistake.

Prospects get hyped for different reasons, but I feel as if these guys hype far outweighs their future potential. Still, best of luck to them. They are all about to be a whole lot richer than me.

Deep Ball Accuracy Is Overrated

When watching tape of the top quarterback prospects in this upcoming draft, I start to notice things. One of these things is that deep ball accuracy is overrated. It is something that gets stressed with the pundits, but it doesn't tell you much about a quarterback prospect.

It's basically the equivalent of kicking 50+ yard field goals. Do we really know who's best? It is such a small sample size that judging accuracy is very difficult, but as long as the kicker has the leg strength to get it there, you should be fine. Quarterbacking is the same way. It doesn't matter what a quarterback's completion percentage is on the 30 deep balls he throws during the year, just that he has shown that he can be accurate and that he has the arm strength to get it there. Although a completed deep ball is a huge play, having the ability to complete that deep ball is more important to the game as a whole as it keeps safeties back which gives more room underneath on routes that are easier to complete.

Sometimes, quarterbacks are going to miss deep balls, other times, they will throw it perfectly, but trying to make a sweeping judgment on a tough throw with a small sample size isn't going to tell you much about how that quarterback will perform in the future.

Sidenote: When searching for a banner image, I typed in deep throw, Google images definitely thought I meant deep throat, so that was...something.

The Most Overrated Prospects In The 2011 NFL Draft

I feel it is time to reveal the most overrated prospects in the draft. I want the Bears to avoid these players at all costs, so I will be absolutely shocked if the Bears don't end up with at least two of the guys on this list. My favorite teams hate me.

QB - Blaine Gabbert - Missouri - I already wrote about this one, and I stand by everything I said.

RB - Mario Fannin - Auburn - He wasn't good enough to start in college. Yes, Michael Dyer is a very good back, but Fannin was a Senior who should have been important to the Auburn offense. But he's been rising up draft boards, because he's got a good 40 time and a big body. I feel like many NFL teams are full of nerds who were never able to get the pretty girl, so they go for the pretty prospect to make up for ending up with a fat wife back at home. I have no proof of this, but I still feel the theory is sound.

FB - Nobody - I am physically unable to dislike a fullback; they are inherently awesome.

WR - There's a ton of variation on where guys are going to go at this position, so it's tough to know until I see a team take a certain wide receiver way too early. If I wanted to base things off pure speculation, I'd say A.J. Green, but that's mostly because I could never will myself to watch Georgia play.

TE - Weslye Saunders - South Carolina - Big, but not that great of a blocker. Slow and off the field problems. I don't see why anybody would waste a draft pick on this guy.

OT - Nate Solder - Colorado - The most overrated prospect in the entire NFL draft. I will guarantee that speed rushers fly by him. I think a lot of power rushers will push him back. Doesn't bend well, skinny in the lower half, I am 90% sure that the Bears will draft him and leave me cursing for the following two days of the draft.

OG/C - Nobody - Just like fullbacks, interior linemen are inherently awesome.

DE - Ryan Kerrigan - Purdue - I wrote about him extensively here, but there's rumblings that he may go Top-10, and I just don't see him being explosive enough to warrant that type of a pick.

DT - Muhammad Wilkerson - Temple - This guy has been getting a ton of love lately as a possible top-20 pick, and when watching him in games, I came away completely underwhelmed as he really didn't dominate low-level competition and Penn State completely took him out of the game when he played an upper echelon opponent.

OLB - Dontay Moch - He's projected as just a mid-round pick, but a lot of that is based on the way that he impressed with his numbers at the combine. The guy is a great athlete, but that doesn't make him a great football player.

ILB - Casey Matthews - Oregon - I know he has long hair just like his brother, but that's where the comparisons end. He's slower, less powerful, and a worse tackler. He's a guy you take in the seventh round to be a special teams player, not a guy you really expect to make an impact.

CB - Chris L. Rucker - Michigan State - I have seen him listed as a sleeper pick by some experts. Maybe he is, but only if you go to sleep and when you wake up you realize it would be a bad idea to waste a draft pick on him. He has good size, solid speed, but isn't a real good football player. On top of that, he had a lot of off the field troubles. I wouldn't touch him.

S - Nobody - They aren't inherently awesome like fullbacks and interior linemen, but they are rarely actually on the televison screen so it's difficult for me to say somebody sucks at this position.

K - Freddy Adu - Rizespor - Don't believe the hype. This guy sucks at football (this analysis would have been groundbreaking eight years ago).

-Joe

P.S. With all the talk of how steroids hurt the game of baseball, how has nobody brought up the two people who were hurt most by it? Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine totally could have had a threesome with Heather Locklear.

The Most Overrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 2

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So I figured I'd shorten up my work and give you the ten prospects that I think are overrated and the ten that are underrated.  If you missed part one, check it out here.

For clarity, I will list their name, position, organization, and the highest ranking I have seen them in a Top 100 list.

5. Desmond Jennings - OF - Rays - Highest Ranking: 6th
I like Desmond Jennings, but the people who talk about him being able to fill Carl Crawford’s shoes this year are out of their mind. This is a guy who should not be at the major league level to start this year. He simply needs more seasoning in the minors. He really struggled at Triple-A last year, and he needs time to refine his game. Now he did put up very good numbers before last year, but it seems like everyone wants to just completely forget about last season which is his most relevant year. I definitely think his talent level is above what he showed last year, but he has to prove that he’s still got it before I can consider putting him in the Top-20.

4. Dee Gordon - SS - Dodgers - Highest Ranking: 32nd
Dee Gordon is Tom "Flash" Gordon's son. That gives him more awesome points than anybody else on this list. He's another toolsy guy who really hasn't produced. He's shown some progress, but he's going to be 23 in April, so he's simply too old to be considered a top prospect. The word you hear people use to describe him is raw. And raw means potential, but he's getting past the age where he'll have time to turn raw tools into real baseball skills. I think he could still be an average shortstop in the majors, but I don't think the star potential is there.

3. Hank Conger - C - Angels - Highest Ranking: 33rd
This one hurts. I love Hank Conger, and it is based solely on this video:

Words fail to describe how awesome that video is.  I truly wish him nothing but the best. Unfortunately, I do not see him being a very good major league player. He's a below average defensive catcher, and his bat isn't that great. He's got good control of the strike zone, but he doesn't have enough power for pitchers to want to pitch around him. He played in a hitter's park last year and still didn't set the world on fire. I don't believe in Hank Conger, but more than anyone else, I hope he proves me wrong.

2. Yonder Alonso - 1B - Reds - Highest Ranking: 15th
Alonso is another first baseman that I just don’t believe in. He’s never really dominated at any level since college, and people still keep giving him passes as to why he hasn’t dominated. He did make the improvement of going from awful to just bad against left-handers, so I guess that is supposed to wow me. I understand he was the 7th overall pick a couple years ago, but he has never slugged .500 in the minors, and he isn’t slick with the glove. He could have a few Lyle Overbay type years, but that sentence really doesn’t excite me…at all. He may be the least sexy prospect in the minors.

1. Andrew Brackman - RP - Yankees - Highest Ranking: 60th
It's not so much that he's completely overrated, because he didn't make some of the Top 100 lists, but the fact that most people refer to the Yankees as having the Three B's irritates the hell out of me. Manny Banuelos could be a stud, Betances can be if he stays healthy, and then there is Andrew Brackman. For the positives on Andrew Brackman, let me see, he's, um...tall. He'll be turning 26 this year. I'm 26. He has never thrown above Double-A; I have never thrown above Double-A. Yet for some reason, I am not considered a top prospect. I still see Brackman's ceiling as a middle reliever. He's been on prospect lists forever, but it's time to realize that he's no longer a guy to dream on; he is what he is, and it isn't that special.

-Joe

P.S.  I'll admit that I am easily amused and influenced, but this video is awesome, and I will be rooting for Jorge Rivera this weekend:

But Jorge Rivera is quite awful at ping pong.  I'm not sure if he ever had a legal shot in that video.  And if you need another reason to root for Rivera, apparently Bisping got all pissy, so here is Rivera's even more awesomer apology video:

The Most Overrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 1

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So I figured I'd shorten up my work and give you the ten prospects that I think are overrated and the ten that are underrated.  I'll start with the overrated, because it's fun to depress fans of certain teams and it's so much easier to hate than it is to love (Poetic, I know).

For clarity, I will list their name, position, organization, and the highest ranking I have seen them in a Top 100 list.

10.  Jonathan Singleton - 1B - Phillies - Highest Ranking:  11th
This one could end up making me look like a jackass, I'll admit that.  I don't have a ton of confidence from what I have read from scouting reports, and his numbers were rather impressive.  But this is a gut feeling.  He absolutely crushed the ball the first half of the year in Low-A, but then was pretty awful in the second half.  Most people have said that he just wasn't ready for the grind of a minor league season.  For his sake, I hope that's the case.  But I'm a big believer in that if you are a first base prospect, you need to crush the ball, and never stop crushing the ball, because anybody can play first base, but you really can't play anywhere else.

9.  Mike Minor - SP - Braves - Highest Ranking:  11
Minor was seen as an overdraft when the Braves took him in the top 10 in the draft a couple years ago.  Then he decided to add a few MPH on his pitches, and people got really excited.  For good reason, things that go fast are way cooler than things that go slow.  Plus, he struck out over a batter per inning in the minors, so that's another reason to think he's really groovy.  Shit, I'm starting to like him more and more.  Anyway, his pitches aren't that good, so he's not somebody who should be a top 20 prospect.

8.  Jose Iglesias - SS - Red Sox - Highest Ranking:  29th
It's not so much that I hate Jose Iglesias, it's that I hate the idea of Jose Iglesias.  There is always a Jose Iglesias rated too high on prospect lists.  Before him, it was Alcides Escobar (last year's most overrated prospect), and before that it was Chin-lung Hu.  It goes on and on way back to year 33 when Jesus ranked Judas way too high on his disciple list (To be fair, Judas had character concerns on top of questions about his bat).  They are the guys who are amazing fielders, but can't hit.  People dream, and say if they can just be an average hitter, they'll be a winning player for a team.  But guess what.  It's really tough to hit major league pitching.  These guys with no pop but good control of the strike zone just get overpowered as they move up to higher levels.  If Iglesias reaches his ceiling, he becomes an average hitter and a great defender at shortstop.  What is that worth?  I don't know, and neither does anybody else, because as much progress that has been made in valuing defensive contributions, there's still a lot of question marks.  There is no way this is a Top-50 Prospect.

7.  Matt Dominguez - 3B - Marlins - Highest Ranking:  21st
He is exactly like Jose Iglesias, except he's not a good enough defender to play shorstop, so he's just a really good defensive third baseman, hence way less valuable.  He hits better than a shortstop, but if everything pans out, he'll be an average hitter at a position where you need an above average bat.  Pass.

6.  Aaron Hicks - CF - Twins - Highest Ranking:  10th
I like toolsy prospects, so Hicks is a tough guy to hate on, but it is a necessity.  Everybody's got him fairly high, but I think 10th is absolutely ridiculous.  He still has a ridiculously high ceiling, but he had his second year at Low-A and still didn't come close to dominating the level.  I mean, he was solid, but for a guy that are expecting such big things from, he certainly stand out.  If he actualizes the tools, he could be great, but I don't see that happening, and at best, he's about 50 spots too high.

And that's all for today, but I'll be back next week for 5-1 of the most overrated prospects in the game.

-Joe

P.S.  This may be old, and Deadspin may have already posted it this week, and Valentine's Day may be over, but Delonte West on love is maybe the greatest thing ever.