Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phillies. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #5 Terry Mulholland

5. Terry Mulholland
Terry Mulholland was one of the great journeymen of his generation. He played for 11 different teams and only stayed with one for more than three years. He originally signed with the Cubs before the 1997 season where he was a solid rotation member with an ERA just over 4.00, but his win-loss record left something to be desired at 6-12. Still, the Cubs sent him to the Giants in August to finish out the season.

But they resigned him for 1998, and boy am I happy they did.

Although he started one game in April and one in May, he was primarily used as a reliever. Not that he was bad as a starter, as he gave up a total of one run in those two starts combined. When the Cubs brought in Terry Mulholland, my only thought was, "Fuck yeah, Mulholland is in, Cubs are definitely shutting this team down." Anytime a different reliever was brought in a close game instead of Mulholland, I lamented about why Mulholland wasn't coming in. Looking back, it was clear how pitching starved I was as a Cubs fan post-Maddux, but Mulholland was legitimately good that year.

But not only was he good, he was also incredibly clutch down the stretch. The Cubs pitching was an absolute mess by the end of the season. The bullpen had been awful since the middle of May, and the rotation was so weak that Mike Morgan and Don Wengert were consistently getting starts. Finally, the Cubs had seen enough and put Mulholland in the rotation. They gave him one start at the beginning of September and he didn't give up a run. Finally, on September 16, he was officially in the rotation.

In those three starts, he gave up two runs in seven innings, one run in eight innings, and three runs in eight innings. I'm not saying that Terry Mulholland would have definitely won the Cy young Award had he been in the rotation the entire year but considering in six starts, he had a 1.82 ERA, we can't rule it out.

Weirldy, I want to take a look at his worst start of the year, the time he gave up three runs on the final day of the regular season and got a no decision. This was a game against the Houston Astros and if the Cubs won, they could have punched their ticket to the playoffs. Mulholland wasn't great this day, as the Astros were consistently getting hits, and he walked three batters. Still, he was finding a way. Through seven innings, he had given up just one run despite letting nine guys reach base. After throwing 100 pitches, he didn't have much left, but he came out for the eighth, because the Cubs simply didn't have a trusted option outside of Rod Beck in the bullpen. The Astros would string together three hits to score two runs and tie the game which would force the Cubs into a winner-take-all game 163 the following night. But Terry Mulholland was born to take that beating and just keep coming back for more. In fact, he would pitch in relief the next night for game 163. The Cubs didn't have a better option.

Overall, he pitched 112 innings, mostly in relief and accumulated a 2.89 ERA. His ERA was 4.10 in the middle of June, but when everything went wrong for the Cubs pitching, he stepped up his game to drop it by more of a run. It probably could have been about a half run lower than even that final tally. Oh yeah, he even hit well with a line of .294/.368/.412 although with limited starts during the year, it was in just 20 plate appearances.

But Terry Mulholland was not going to be a guy to give you tons of highlights throughout the year. The guy just did his job and did it well. In a season where the pitching still makes me depressed 20 years later, he brought reliability. No historian is going to look back on Cubs history and make note of Terry Mulholland's 1998; there was a phenom striking out 20 guys in a game, and a hitter who made baseball fun again, but as someone who lived through that season, Terry Mulholland was incredible and deserves to be remembered fondly by all Cubs fans. He is now part owner of the Dirty Dogg Saloon, and you can bet your ass that if I find myself in Scottsdale, Arizona, I am going to stop by, grab a Natural Light, and pay homage to the legend that is Terry Mulholland.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais
#15 - Mark Clark
#14 - Lance Johnson
#13 - Brant Brown
#12 - Jose Hernandez
#11 - Steve Trachsel
#10 - Henry Rodriguez
#9 - Kevin Tapani
#8 - Mickey Morandini

#7 - Gary Gaetti

#6 - Rod Beck

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #8 Mickey Morandini

8. Mickey Morandini
Let's get this out of the way. Mickey Morandini does not look like a baseball player. Some would say he looks like a stoner, but I feel he has more of a drunken uncle look to him, and no, that mullet did him no favors. But let me tell you something else about Mickey Morandini; the guy is freaking awesome.

Nobody had a more difficult job for the Chicago Cubs in 1998 than Mickey Morandini. He was coming in as the Cubs new second baseman, replacing a Hall-of-Famer, and one of the few bright spots the franchise had over the last 15 years, Ryne Sandberg. He had incredibly large shoes to fill, and taking one look at Mickey Morandini, you would not have expected him to fill that role.

The man absolutely crushed the ball during the first half of the year as he was hitting an incredible .327/.419/.449 going into an All-Star break where you could make a pretty decent argument that he was snubbed. Fun fact: The Cubs didn't have an All-Star on the team in 1998, because Sammy Sosa was nursing an injury so he was unable to play in the game. The most fun Cubs team in my lifetime didn't get an All-Star. I'm not mad; I just think it's funny.

Unfortunately, he faded down the stretch, hitting just .231 over the final two months. Still, he was the second most valuable player by WAR for the Cubs in 1998, but this list does not take WAR into account as you may have noticed from how unreasonably high Orlando Merced was.

Although he only had two hits in the playoffs, one of them was arguably the biggest hit of the entire series for the Cubs where he led off the inning with a single and would later score to give the Cubs their only lead of the series. Yeah, there were't a lot of playoff highlights.

Instead of mere competency, he was pretty damn incredible. Outside of Mark Grace, he was the Cubs most reliable player when it came to getting on base. He played a nifty second base in the field and gave the Cubs exactly what they needed when Sandberg left. He ended with a line of .296/.380/.385. He even finished 24th in MVP voting, barely losing to teammate, Sammy Sosa, especially since both players had their personal high in home runs that year - Sosa 66, Morandini 8.

It all fell apart for Morandini after 1998. In 1999, his line dropped to .241/.319/.329. He went back to the Phillies in 2000 and was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays that year to conclude his final season in the major leagues. A few years later I would meet him at a Cubs Convention, and he was very nice to my friends and me, so thanks for that, Mickey. He may have stopped playing, but he stayed in baseball, getting a job in the Phillies organization and rising up to be their current first base coach.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #12 Jose Hernandez

12. Jose Hernandez
Jose Hernandez might be the most 1998 Cubs player of them all. Obviously, he's not the most memorable, but I'm not sure if anybody embodied that season more than him. Hernandez was never impressive before 1998. He bounced around the Rangers' and Indians' organizations before coming to the Cubs in 1993 in exchange for Heathcliff Slocumb. He did put up his best minor league hitting stats in 1993, putting up a whopping ten home runs which over tripled his previous high of three. It ended up being enough to get him a shot at the big leagues. Over the next four years, he was a solid bench player for the team, filling in at third and shortstop when necessary. There was no reason to expect anything great in 1998.

Things didn't start out great for Hernandez. He was on the bench, and in the first month, he gave the Cubs no reason to make him a starter. On May 1, he was hitting an abysmal .167/.189/.306. But in May, he started putting things together, raising his line to .231/.276/.454, maybe not great, but enough to get hi 15 starts in the month instead of the five he got in April.

As the weather warmed, so did Hernandez's bat. By June, Hernandez was a full-time starter and his line continued its rise to .282/.335/.544. His numbers stayed steady in August before tiring out in September and having his numbers drop to a still impressive .254/.311/.471. I know that OBP may not impress people, but the starters at the beginning of the year were Kevin Orie and Jeff Blauser, so I'll take a low OBP for 23 home runs and 75 RBI on the left side of the infield. On top of those positions, he also played every other position outside of pitcher and catcher during the season. Jose Hernandez was awesome.

It was not a great playoffs for Hernandez. In Game 1, he failed to get a hit and made an error that led to the Braves first two runs of the game. He did not play in Game 2 before coming back in Game 3 and helping spark a rally with his second hit of the game. He ended up scoring, but the Cubs failed to score enough.

Things did not come together for the Cubs in 1999 as they were sitting at 48-53 at the trade deadline. The Cubs made one of the most depressing trades of my lifetime when they sent Hernandez and Terry Mulholland to the Braves just a year after they competed with Atlanta in the playoffs. They would follow that up by going 9-25 in their next 34 games, ending the year with the fourth worst record in baseball.

Hernandez would bounce around to Milwaukee where he would become an All-Star in 2002, Colorado, before coming back to the Cubs in 2003. It was not a long stint as he only lasted 33 days before the Cubs traded him again, this time to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Instead of being depressed, it was one of the greatest trades of my lifetime as they traded Hernandez along with Bobby Hill and a minor leaguer for Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez which would help spark the Cubs first playoff appearance since that 1998 season. Hernandez would go on to play for the Dodgers, Indians, Pirates again, Phillies, before ending his career in the Puerto Rico at age 39.

Jose Hernandez embodied the 1998 Chicago Cubs. This was not a team that came out of nowhere on the backs of young prospects making leaps in their performance. This was a team that came out of nowhere on the backs of veterans who had established their true level of performance but somehow exceeded even the rosiest of prognostications. The Cubs thought they had third base and shortstop solved going into the season. It turns out they did, but it came from a bench player who provided exactly what the Cubs needed.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais
#15 - Mark Clark

#14 - Lance Johnson

#13 - Brant Brown

Thursday, July 26, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #19 Tyler Houston

19. Tyler Houston
Tyler Houston is one of my guys. I was incredibly excited when the Cubs acquired him from the Braves for Ismael Villegas in 1996. A former second overall pick who was a catcher with big-time hitting potential was totally my jam as I love pedigree, and I didn't give a shit about defense. My faith was rewarded as he hit .339 once joining the team in 1996. In 1997, he fell off as his slugging percentage only managed to be three points higher than his batting average from the previous season.

Still, there were high hopes for 1998. The Cubs didn't have anything special at catcher with Scott Servais and Sandy Martinez so Houston was definitely going to get a chance at playing time. Unfortunately, he didn't totally take advantage as he hit .260/.290/.342 in 1998 while playing catcher, first, and third base while struggling with a hamstring injury. It wasn't all bad though as he definitely had some highlights during his 95 games that year.

To start the year, it looked like Houston may fulfill his power potential. In his first game of the season, he hit a three-run homer, but he wouldn't hit his second home run until six weeks later and would finish with just nine on the year. Still, July 3, everything came together for him as he hit two home runs off of Francisco Cordova who was weirdly one of the best pitchers in the major leagues that year. His greatest regular season highlight was likely the birth of his first child in May, but that one didn't affect me as much.

He even had a big postseason moment. He started game one against the Braves in the NLDS and took John Smoltz deep to give the Cubs a big home run. Unfortunately, that was the Cubs only offense, and they lost the game 7-1. He started two out of three of the playoff games and did get some playing time in all three.

Houston's numbers got slightly better in 1999 before being traded to Cleveland for a minor league pitcher that never came close to the major leagues. After that, he finally gave up catching when signing with the Milwaukee Brewers which helped him unlock his hitting potential where he put together a few very good seasons before a couple brief stints with the Dodgers and the Phillies.

Tyler Houston never quite lived up to that second overall pick pedigree, but he provided more good than bad when playing for the Cubs, added some flexibility by playing multiple positions, and provided hope that he would breakthrough at the plate. He had that breakthrough; it's just a shame it didn't happen for the Cubs.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #20 Amaury Telemaco

20. Amaury Telemaco
I can't think of Amaury Telemaco without hearing his name in Harry Caray's voice. Throughout this article, just know that I will only be hearing it in my head as Amaury TeleMAco. Without doing anything else, Telemaco will be endearing to me simply based off of that pronunciation. But he didn't just have a fun name as he actually had some effective performances for the Cubs.

1998 was a blessed year for the Cubs, and it was no different for Telemaco who had by far his best season, with a 3.93 ERA in 148.2 innings. That is an incredibly valuable pitcher, and you are probably wondering why he isn't even higher on this list. That is a GREAT question. Unfortunately, the answer makes me so angry that I can barely put it into words.

Telemaco started the year in the bullpen, filling the role of a long reliever for the team. Although it was not high leverage, he was effective as he posted a 3.90 ERA while pitching two or more innings in the majority of his appearances through May 8, The most the same date that Telemaco got his first win of the season, and the last day he would pitch for the Cubs.

The most logical explanation is that he suffered an injury and had to miss the remainder of the season. The next most logical conclusion is that the Cubs traded him for a fair return in Barry Bonds, but I think I would remember if Bonds played in Chicago. But neither of those explanations are correct.

Instead the Cubs put him on waivers where he was snatched up by the Arizona Diamondbacks. I've been trying to find the right words to explain why the Cubs put him on waivers. I have already written about 15 different relievers, all of whom performed incredibly poorly, and honestly made me question how the Cubs even had a successful season in 1998. So instead of me telling you why the Cubs got rid of Telemaco, I'm going to let Jim Riggleman do it for me.
"We just had a little excess there and we had to move someone to make way for Foster, who hopefully will join us in the not-so-distant future."
Yep, the Cubs got rid of Telemaco, because they had TOO MUCH great relief pitching on their staff. Of course, right after the Diamondbacks took Telemaco off the Cubs' hands, nearly everyone in their bullpen imploded. Seriously, the entire article is one of the saddest things I have ever read. He would go on to have a 3.94 ERA in 121 innings for the Diamondbacks after being released. The Cubs definitely could have used that.

He then lost it, not posting an ERA below 5.54 in any of the next three years. In 2002, he didn't even make the major leagues. But he somehow bounced back to give the Philadelphia Phillies three years of solid relief work before calling it quits after the 2005 season.

Amaury TeleMAco.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie

#23 - Sandy Martinez

#22 - Terry Adams

#21 - Matt Mieske

Thursday, July 19, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #22 Terry Adams

22. Terry Adams
Relief pitchers, unless they are closers, are a fairly unexciting lot. They do their jobs, and you only notice them when they screw up. Terry Adams was easily the Cubs third best reliever in 1998 (although he ranks fourth on my list), but it's tough to find that much excitement in that, especially with how awful that bullpen performed that year.

Before we get to 1998, a little bit about Terry's past. He was a fourth round pick in 1991, and he had four unimpressive years in the minors before figuring it out in 1995 and dominating Double-A, continuing that in a short stint in Triple-A before making his Major League debut later that year. He continued the momentum in 1996 where he pitched over 100 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.94 ERA. This was good enough for him to be the closer in 1997. It did not work out as planned as his ERA rose to 4.62 that year.

In 1998, the Cubs brought in an established closer in Rod Beck but expected Adams to be the primary setup guy. The hope was that the lack of pressure would help elevate his numbers back to those 1996 levels. Early on, that plan seemed to be working. He cruised in his new role, with a 2.03 ERA on June 20th, he was one of the best setup men in the game.

A week later, it was over a run higher at 3.06. Just like nearly every one of the Cubs relievers that we have covered, the implosion was only beginning. His ERA went up and up and up to the highest it had been since the second game of the season at 4.33 on September 18. The Cubs had seen enough, and he would not play another game that season.

He stuck around one more year for the Cubs before they sent him to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Eric Young and Ismael Valdes. Adams became a starter and performed about as well as he did in relief but in far more innings. He then finished out his career in relief for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Adams is a tough guy to rate. He gave the Cubs two and a half months of excellent relief work, but he was so bad down the stretch that the Cubs were pitching Matt Karchner instead. Relief pitchers just aren't all that exciting although two did make it in the Top 10. Terry Adams is definitely rated too low, but that's the price of being effective instead of exciting.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta

#24 - Kevin Orie

#23 - Sandy Martinez

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #32 Kevin Foster

32. Kevin Foster
This is one where 1998 contributions get a little fuzzy. Since I'm not actually judging based on performance but how they made me feel, it's impossible for me to not include feelings that carried over from past seasons. Kevin Foster, based on 1998, could have arguably been ranked last on this list. Instead, he's much higher, because I really freaking liked Kevin Foster.

Foster was originally drafted by the Montreal Expos as an infielder. He struggled for three years at the plate before the Expos decided to see if he could make it as a pitcher. Although the transition started off a little rough, by his second year on the mound, Foster showed his potential with a  2.74 ERA and over a strikeout per inning in A-ball.

After that, he progressed through the minors, got traded to the Mariners and then to the Phillies who he made a couple appearances for at the end of the the 1993 season and put up a 14.85 ERA. That was enough for the Phillies to trade him to the Cubs in exchange for Shawn Boskie.

In 1994, this trade looked like a massive steal for the Cubs. He came up on June 3rd and threw seven shutout innings against the Expos, who were really freaking good that year. His ERA would never rise above 3.15 and would end that year at 2.89 when the strike cut short the season. He had 8.3 strikeouts per inning, which may not sound too impressive these days but would have eighth in the major leagues if he had enough innings to qualify, just two spots behind a little pitcher from Montreal named Pedro Martinez.

But that would go down as his best season. After that, Foster was plagued with the long ball as his home run rate over doubled the following season, and he would lead the league in home runs allowed. He still had a acceptable 4.51 ERA. The wheels came off in 1996 when he put up an ERA over 6.00, but he bounced back a little in 1997 with a 4.61 ERA.

In 1998, he started the year off in the minor leagues but was called up before a June 9th game to try to help out the bullpen. It did not work out as he gave up two runs in two innings in his first outing. He bounced back for a scoreless outing his second time on the mound, and everything fell apart for him in the third outing as he gave up four hits without recording an out and all four runners would go on to score. The Cubs sent him down to AAA after that, but even there he couldn't put things back together as he had an ERA over 6.00. He would not see the Major Leagues for another three years when he got a brief chance with the Texas Rangers, and then would go on to play a couple years in independent ball before calling it quits.

Unfortunately, the story gets sadder from there. Kevin Foster was diagnosed with renal cancer and passed away in 2008 at the age of 39.

Kevin Foster was a fun guy to watch, and he always flashed just enough that you thought the magic of that 1994 season might come back at any time. In the 1990s, all Cubs fans had was hope, and Foster gave us a reason that a brighter future was attainable. He may have not been the guy in 1998, but he showed enough before that to keep us hanging on to hope for a brighter future, and for that, I will never forget his contributions to the team.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert

#34 - Kurt Miller

#33 - Jason Maxwell

Thursday, March 9, 2017

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - NL East

Although baseball season is still a few weeks away, fantasy baseball season is here as draft rooms are opening and people are spending fake auction dollars on their favorite players. Everybody knows about the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world, so what you need to do stand out is find those hidden gems on each roster to propel yourself to fantasy greatness. I am going to go through each MLB roster to find at least one underrated player who will have you looking like a genius at the end of the season.

Today, after getting through the American League. We make our way to the National League, and just like Columbus before us, we will start in the NL East.

Atlanta Braves - Brandon Phillips
Probably not the sexiest pick for a young up and coming team, but sometimes you need to just go with an ol' faithful, and Phillips fits the bill. He'll give you about a .280 average with double digits steals and home runs. Since Atlanta isn't stacked offensively, that means he's probably hitting near the top of the order which will help those counting stats. He's a desperate choice for your top second basemen but is ideal somebody who can fill that 2B/SS role.

Miami Marlins - Adam Conley
He will pitch for the Marlins this year, and I read he got stronger this year. This was by far the hardest team, but since I had to pick somebody, I went with Conley, since I wasn't sure if I could count Giancarlo Stanton as a sleeper.

New York Mets - Travis d'Arnaud
d'Arnaud is a guy who isn't even getting drafted this year, but in 2015, he absolutely crushed the ball for a catcher. What happened in 2016? Injuries, mostly. His batted ball data cratered, and I don't think he has completely lost the ability to hit forever and ever. The guy has been able to hit at every level, and he even did it in the major leagues. I think he could be due for a big year this season as he could be a top-5 catcher if he can stay healthy and show that 2015 is the real d'Arnaud.

Philadelphia Phillies - Aaron Nola
Nola's results were worse last year, but his pitching was better as he had nearly ten strikeouts per nine innings, had about the same walk rate, and significantly lowered his home run rate. He was the victim of bad luck in more ways than one as his BABIP raised by about 50 points, and he only had a comically low 60% of runners left on base. When more people reach base by luck and they always find a way to score, then it's going to be pretty tough for a pitcher not to take a significant step back. If Nola's luck balances out, he's likely a top-20 pitcher this year, so yeah, you should draft this dude.

Washington Nationals - Shawn Kelley
I don't know who's going to be the Nationals closer, but if it's Shawn Kelley, then that's a pretty sweet deal as the Nationals are likely to win a lot of games and closing games isn't that difficult. He strikes out a good amount of guys, so snag him late and he'll probably perform as well as any other closer.

I'll admit, this division had a lot of, "Well, you gotta pick somebody" picks, but I can just about guarantee that one of these will be one of my three best sleepers on my entire list. It's your job to figure out which one that is (Hint: It's probably d'Arnaud).

Thursday, March 10, 2011

The Most Underrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 2

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So now it is time for the underrated prospects.  Today, I will wrap up everything and focus on players that I see jumping into next year's Top 100 or making an impact at the major league level.  The first underrated part can be found here.  If you missed the overrated, you can check it out here and here.


Phillippe Aumont - SP/RP - Phillies
I thought he was possibly the most impressive arm in the Midwest League when I saw him a couple years ago.  This could mean that he has regressed and has a chance to bounce back, or it could mean that my baseball scouting abilities are pathetically underdeveloped.  Neither would surprise me, and it could honestly be a little of both.  Either way, I just have a strong feeling that this is the era of the French Canadians.  Not since the Rougeau Brothers has there been this sort of dominance from French Canadian athletes.
I mean, there's Georges St. Pierre, and...well, that might be it, but that still makes it a great time for French Canadians, hence expect a bounceback year from Aumont as he takes a huge step forward and is seen as a top relief prospect.

Robinson Chirinos - C - Rays
I know that I am breaking a rule of mine in that I should never bet on a prospect who is as old as I am, but I'm a spry 26, and I feel the same is true for Chirinos.  Also, isn't it always a good idea to bet that the Cubs gave away promising talent in a trade?  I think so, and that is why I am willing to bet on Chirinos.  He may be old, but he crushed the ball in Triple-A last year with a .318/.412/.580 line.  And it's not like he was hitting in a band box, he did it Des Moines, IA, not a place known for it's thin air.  Do I think he'll be able to hit like that in the majors?  No chance, but I do think he's good enough to provide good offense for a catcher, and I'll be surprised if he doesn't see serious time at catcher with the Rays this year. 


Jason Knapp - SP - Indians
Jason Knapp does my favorite thing very well, and that's strike people out.  During his three years in the minors, he has 208 strikeouts in 156 innings pitched.  Is that pimpin?  That's so pimpin.  So why doesn't this guy get more love from the experts?  Well, he pitched under 30 innings last year after spending most of his time rehabbing from shoulder surgery.  Shoulder surgery is about the worst thing for a pitcher, because although Tommy John Surgery is serious, almost everybody comes back to at least 80% of what they once were.  With shoulder surgery, there's many guys who aren't half as good as they once were.  But I'm not a doctor, so I don't worry about trivial things like his arm could fall off with his next pitch.  Injuries happen all the time, so enjoy the fun while you can.  Maybe Knapp does get hurt again, but if he doesn't, he's got the stuff to be a great pitcher in the majors.

Max Stassi - C - Athletics
There's no hiding it, his offense wasn't very good in Low-A last year.  A line of .229/.310/.380 is never going to get you laid.  But I also wouldn't count a guy like this out.  He was seen as a first round talent by a lot of people going into the draft, but dropped to the fourth, because people worried about his bonus demands.  I see him getting much better on offense, but even saying that, I never expect him to be a top offensive catcher.  But the defense, oh the defense.  Reviews of his defense are somewhere between sensational and heavenly.  If he can hit like an average catcher, he'll be an asset.  I think he can still develop into an above average hitter.  The biggest concern are strikeouts, but he showed enough power in a tough offensive environment for me to believe there's more on the way.  And worst case scenario is he keeps striking out and offers little offensive value.  Mike Scioscia would still kill his own grandmother to start a catcher like that 140 times.

Ryan Westmoreland - OF - Red Sox
This is a guy to root for after having brain surgery last year. He’s no longer on any prospect lists, but I think he’ll make a full recovery to his top prospect level. Plus, anyone who has ever had to interact with baseball players realizes that a majority of them are at least mildly retarded. Hence, even if they scrambled some things during his brain surgery, he should still maintain his ability to play baseball at a high level.  In all seriousness, you root for a full recovery for anyone who has to go through something like that.  And it would be nice if a small market team like the Red Sox can get a top prospect back.

And so wraps up my baseball prospect breakdown for this year.  Am I a genius?  Am I a moron?  Only time will tell.

-Joe

P.S.  In "Derrick Rose Is Awesome" news, there's this:

Friday, February 18, 2011

The Most Overrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 1

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So I figured I'd shorten up my work and give you the ten prospects that I think are overrated and the ten that are underrated.  I'll start with the overrated, because it's fun to depress fans of certain teams and it's so much easier to hate than it is to love (Poetic, I know).

For clarity, I will list their name, position, organization, and the highest ranking I have seen them in a Top 100 list.

10.  Jonathan Singleton - 1B - Phillies - Highest Ranking:  11th
This one could end up making me look like a jackass, I'll admit that.  I don't have a ton of confidence from what I have read from scouting reports, and his numbers were rather impressive.  But this is a gut feeling.  He absolutely crushed the ball the first half of the year in Low-A, but then was pretty awful in the second half.  Most people have said that he just wasn't ready for the grind of a minor league season.  For his sake, I hope that's the case.  But I'm a big believer in that if you are a first base prospect, you need to crush the ball, and never stop crushing the ball, because anybody can play first base, but you really can't play anywhere else.

9.  Mike Minor - SP - Braves - Highest Ranking:  11
Minor was seen as an overdraft when the Braves took him in the top 10 in the draft a couple years ago.  Then he decided to add a few MPH on his pitches, and people got really excited.  For good reason, things that go fast are way cooler than things that go slow.  Plus, he struck out over a batter per inning in the minors, so that's another reason to think he's really groovy.  Shit, I'm starting to like him more and more.  Anyway, his pitches aren't that good, so he's not somebody who should be a top 20 prospect.

8.  Jose Iglesias - SS - Red Sox - Highest Ranking:  29th
It's not so much that I hate Jose Iglesias, it's that I hate the idea of Jose Iglesias.  There is always a Jose Iglesias rated too high on prospect lists.  Before him, it was Alcides Escobar (last year's most overrated prospect), and before that it was Chin-lung Hu.  It goes on and on way back to year 33 when Jesus ranked Judas way too high on his disciple list (To be fair, Judas had character concerns on top of questions about his bat).  They are the guys who are amazing fielders, but can't hit.  People dream, and say if they can just be an average hitter, they'll be a winning player for a team.  But guess what.  It's really tough to hit major league pitching.  These guys with no pop but good control of the strike zone just get overpowered as they move up to higher levels.  If Iglesias reaches his ceiling, he becomes an average hitter and a great defender at shortstop.  What is that worth?  I don't know, and neither does anybody else, because as much progress that has been made in valuing defensive contributions, there's still a lot of question marks.  There is no way this is a Top-50 Prospect.

7.  Matt Dominguez - 3B - Marlins - Highest Ranking:  21st
He is exactly like Jose Iglesias, except he's not a good enough defender to play shorstop, so he's just a really good defensive third baseman, hence way less valuable.  He hits better than a shortstop, but if everything pans out, he'll be an average hitter at a position where you need an above average bat.  Pass.

6.  Aaron Hicks - CF - Twins - Highest Ranking:  10th
I like toolsy prospects, so Hicks is a tough guy to hate on, but it is a necessity.  Everybody's got him fairly high, but I think 10th is absolutely ridiculous.  He still has a ridiculously high ceiling, but he had his second year at Low-A and still didn't come close to dominating the level.  I mean, he was solid, but for a guy that are expecting such big things from, he certainly stand out.  If he actualizes the tools, he could be great, but I don't see that happening, and at best, he's about 50 spots too high.

And that's all for today, but I'll be back next week for 5-1 of the most overrated prospects in the game.

-Joe

P.S.  This may be old, and Deadspin may have already posted it this week, and Valentine's Day may be over, but Delonte West on love is maybe the greatest thing ever.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 20-11

I'm almost done posting all of these, so that's exciting. Nick Devlin and anybody with a lot of free time, enjoy.

20 Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins – Sorry JVD, but this is a little high for the LoMo. He’s a first base prospect without that much power. That’s not exactly a recipe for success. This guy will definitely be a major league ballplayer, but his ceiling doesn’t seem high enough to put him in the Top 20. His ceiling is a non-gold glove version of John Olerud. He can hit for average, he’ll definitely get on base, and you’ll still yearn for Ryan Howard. Another thing that I feel bad about for LoMo is that his Twitter account is @LoMoMarlins. He does know he’s going to have to change that once he reaches arbitration, right?

19 Aaron Hicks, of, Twins – I’m thinking this guy should probably be about 20 spots lower. Hicks oozes potential and could be a five-tool monster in center field, but a lot of those tools haven’t shown up on a baseball field yet. He showed great plate discipline, but his average was barely .250, and he didn’t manage to slug .400. He has the potential to blow up, but until he actually proves something in the minor leagues, I would be cautious on some of his projections.

18 Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays – He’s from Iowa, so obviously, I think he’s fantastic. But he’s also got the numbers and scouting reports to back it up, so he is deserving of this ranking, and I could even put him a few spots higher. He has gotten Greg Maddux comparisons, which is pretty much impossible to live up to, but he has three plus-pitches, and maybe the best command in minor league baseball. After thinking these last thirty seconds, I’d probably put him in my Top 10.

17 Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers – I would probably put this guy in the Top 10, and near the top 5 as he dominated Low-A, and was promoted to Double-A as an 18 year old. The only complaint about him is that he isn’t the ideal size of a pitcher, but he has three plus pitches already and he’s shown domination in his short minor league career. The guy is so good that he could get a September callup to the big leagues. Who gives a shit about size when a guy is this good? Consider me on the Martin Perez bandwagon.

16 Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs – No. No. No. This is the second most overrated player on the list (the first is coming soon). Yes, I know he was able to hit for a very good average at both High-A and Double-A as a 19 year-old. I cannot take that away. That is impressive. All the while, he showed up as a plus defender at shortstop. That is very good too. But where’s the potential? He doesn’t draw many walks, and he doesn’t have much power, nor does he project to add much power. So here’s his best-case scenario, a rather empty .300 hitter with solid defense. Without a doubt, that’s an asset, but that isn’t the 16th best prospect in baseball, especially when that’s his BEST case scenario. Sorry Cubs fans, you’ve still got a long ways to go.

15 Domonic Brown, of, Phillies – Fair ranking for Brown. The guy has all the tools to be great, and he did very well at High-A and Double-A last year. He could be near a .300 hitter and slug over .500. Some question his power potential, but he was able to slug over .500 at both levels last year, so the potential of him being a 30 home run guy is still there. He’s a very good athlete, and I think the Phillies have every intention of him taking Jayson Werth’s spot in 2011.

14 Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants – I think Bumgarner is the second best pitching prospect in baseball, and he could make me look very smart or very stupid for saying that. When he’s on, he’s electric with a great fastball and breaking ball with an average change. He absolutely dominated everything in sight in his minor league career. The big concern is that his velocity was only in the high 80s for the second half of the season. He still dominated, and did well when he came to the majors for a brief stint. If he’s that good without velocity, imagine how badass he’ll be when he gets it back. That is why I would still put him in the Top 5 of all prospects in baseball.

13 Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers – Smoak looks like he’s placed about right, maybe a little high. His numbers haven’t been great outside of his time with Team USA. He dominated Double-A, but a lof of that was plate discipline as opposed to raw power as he failed to slug .500. I don’t think he is a serious threat to Chris Davis in spring training this year, and I could see him not getting called up until September. There is very little doubt that this guy will fail to succeed in the majors, but I have trouble seeing superstar potential in him.

12 Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers – The most OVERRATED prospect in all of baseball. He hits for average, is fast, and plays good defense. That’s it. That’s all you need to be the 12th best prospect in baseball. He doesn’t have great plate discipline, he’s got very little power, and he’s had troubles with right handers. He is around this area on just about everybody’s list, and I simply don’t get it. At #12, you need to be a world beater, and this guy is not. He should probably be about 50 spots lower.

11 Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners – I really can’t find much fault in Ackley, and this seems like a fair ranking for him. Although he is trying second base right now, the worst case scenario is that he’s a weak-armed center fielder. He can hit for average and also has great plate discipline. He hit 22 homers as a junior at North Carolina, so he seems to be the total package. Even if the power doesn’t totally translate, he’ll be a good center fielder or an All-Star second baseman.

-Joe

P.S. Here are my picks for all the fights this weekend: Askren, Hornbuckle, Soto, Lindland, Woodley, and Tim Sylvia over Mariusz Pudzianowski.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 100-91

I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 100-91.

100 Noel Arguelles, lhp, Royals – I would actually probably put Arguelles higher than this, and that is based off barely anything. He’s got four pitches, so that’s pretty cool. He’s Cuban, so he knows a thing or two about cigars. He got a big time major league contract, so they’re probably going to be pretty aggressive with him, and that’s impressive for a 20 year old. I get boners for potential, so I might put him around 75.

99 Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles – I like Arrieta a little more than this, but I understand putting him this low due to concerns about his secondary stuff. Most believe he has the best fastball in the system, but his secondary pitches need work. He was still able to dominate Double-A and do pretty well at Triple-A, so I would put him higher on this list, but the progress of his secondary pitches will determine whether he can reach his potential of #2-#3 starter of if he’s a back-of-the-rotation/bullpen guy.

98 Jay Jackson, rhp, Cubs – I like Jackson more than this as I could see him about 20 spots higher. He did very well at Double-A, striking out nearly a batter per inning. Then he got too badass for the Cubs liking, so they sent him down to High-A for disciplinary reasons. He then decided to murder-rape opposing hitters in that league just to show he felt no remorse for his actions. He’s got a good fastball-slider combo, and also has a decent curve and a change. I think he’s the Cubs best pitching prospect, but that’s kind of like being the prettiest girl in Nebraska, it’s nice, but not anything to put on a resume.

97 Peter Bourjos, of, Angels – This is a fair ranking for Bourjos. He is one of the fastest players in the minor leagues and he had a solid year at Double-A last year despite battling wrist problems. His plate discipline took a big step forward last year, so there’s a good chance he can be a solid leadoff hitter that plays good defense in center field. He’s not a superstar, but he’ll definitely contribute on a major league team. Also, I can understand knocking him down a peg or two, because his last name looks kinda French.

96 Thomas Neal, of, Giants – This guy is a pure hitter who absolutely dominated at High-A last year. The only problem with that is that a lot of people have been known to smoke the ball in the California League. Still, many scouts think that he can hit for a .300 average with average power as a pro. He’ll pretty much have to as the bat is his only tool (must be tough to get a girlfriend), but he will definitely have a spot in the majors if he can reach his potential.

95 Andrew Cashner, rhp, Cubs – I think this is a fair ranking, although I do not see him staying a starter when he gets to the majors. The Cubs have tried the conversion, but his power stuff takes a step backwards when he is used in longer stints, and his changeup only projects to be an average pitch. If they put him in the bullpen, they’ll have a guy who can dial his heater up into the high 90s as well as having a plus slider to compliment it. On top of that, his delivery isn’t the smoothest so a move to the bullpen would increase his chances of staying healthy. Also, he is one of two guys that reminds me that I should draft for the Cubs, as I would have taken Tim Melville this year, and I would have taken Travis Snider instead of Tyler Colvin. I do approximately 15 minutes of researching amateurs, and I could still do a better job than the Cubs.

94 Miguel Sano, ss/3b, Twins – I like Sano way more than this, as he’s easily in my top 40. This is based off absolutely nothing stats wise, but he may have been the best player in the international market this year, and I like that the Twins ponied up the money for him. The Twins do a good job of recognizing talent, and I think they could have themselves a very special player here. Now, this premonition that I have really means nothing and won’t mean anything for possibly up to three years. He’s a far ways away, but he should be a fun guy to watch make his way up the ladder (or be a complete bust).

93 Phillippe Aumont, rhp, Phillies – I like Aumont more than this, and that is almost strictly based on me seeing him one time in 2008. That is very little to go off of, but if you would have asked me who I would rather have between him and Jarrod Parker of the Diamondbacks, I would go Aumont hands down. He pitched about five innings and made people look silly the entire game. He was overpowering, and nobody made good contact the entire day. He pitched in relief last year, but with the Phillies moving him back to starting, I think he will take a major step forward for 2011 prospect lists. Unfortunately, when it comes to French-Canadians, his athletic prowess will always trail GSP and Jacques Rougeau.

92 Drew Storen, rhp, Nationals – I like Storen a lot, but this is probably a fair ranking for a relief prospect without the shit-your-pants overpowering stuff. He dominated at three different levels last year (although a short time at each stop), and he actually has a decent shot to get called up before Strasburg does this season. The ceiling isn’t unbelievable, but the probability of this guy being a closer is very likely so that definitely helps his cause.

91 Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros – I could probably bump up Lyles a little bit from this spot. He dominted Low-A last year where he had 167 strikeouts in 144 innings. He has a good fastball, and his secondary pitches are average right now, but they could definitely get better as he’s a young guy and experience could definitely refine him some. I love strikeouts, they may not give me a boner, but I’ve definitely got a chub just thinking about them.



-Joe

P.S. If you want to see a really disturbing video, check this out.