The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #7 Gary Gaetti

7. Gary Gaetti
Is this too high to put a guy who only played a little over a month for the Cubs in 1998? No, because it is my list, and I can do whatever I want. Also, spoiler alert, he's not even the highest ranked guy on this list that was acquired late in the season.

Gary Gaetti had a fascinating career before joining the Cubs. He began his career in Minnesota where he had some great years including a World Series in 1987 and finishing eighth in the AL in OPS and winning a Gold Glove. Then he fell off and things only got worse when he went to California in 1991 as he lost the ability to hit at age 32. Then, he went to Kansas City in 1993, and he regained the ability to hit, even hitting 35 home runs in 1995. He would go to the Cardinals in 1996 and put nearly three seasons of good work for them during his age 37-39 years. But the Cardinals acquired Fernando Tatis at the trade deadline and decided he was their third baseman of the present and future. They waived Gary Gaetti on August 9, and ten days later, when he was free to join any other team, he signed on with the Chicago Cubs.

His impact in 37 games was nothing short of incredible. Not only did he fill in at third base, allowing Jose Hernandez to replace Jeff Blauser at shortstop to eliminate the black holes in the lineup that had been the left side of the infield, but he exceeded every possible expectation during those final six weeks.

The Cubs started him off slowly, as he had just eight at bats in his first five games with the team. In the sixth game, he took John Hudek of the Cincinnati Reds deep for a two run homer, and he would start every game but one from then on. Oh, and that game he didn't start? He hit a pinch-hit home run in his one at bat.

On September 2nd, he continued his Reds killing ways by hitting a two-run homer in the eighth inning to turn a one-run deficit into a one-run lead. He also had a home run against the Brewers that sparked an eight-run comeback in one of my favorite games ever. Oh, and that pinch-hit home run i casually mentioned above? Yeah, that was in the tenth inning off of Trevor Hoffman to give the Cubs a win. This man did not just hit well. He was incredibly clutch as well. In close & late situations, he may have only had 25 at bats, but he managed 13 hits, four doubles, and four homers for a line of .520/.556/1.160. Gary Gaetti fucking ruled.

But there was no more clutch moment than Game 163. In a winner-takes-all, loser-goes-home matchup against the San Francisco Giants, neither team had scored halfway through the game. After a Henry Rodriguez single, Gary Gaetti, facing an 0-2 count, did this:

It's one of the most important home runs in Cubs history. I know nine years isn't some incredible playoff drought, but it's not that the Cubs didn't make the playoffs, it's that they could barely muster up a season of competence during that time. It was that the Cubs had one of the greatest pitchers ever, but he chose to go to Atlanta for less money. These were the true lovable losers, but on this night, Gary Gaetti hit a ball so hard that all Cubs fans felt like champions.

The Cubs resigned him after 1998, but he would only last 1999 with the team as they released him after the season when it was clear that the magic from 1998 had worn off. He would sign with the Red Sox but would only play five games before retiring early in the 2000 season. He played in over 2500 games before it was all said and done. I would say that was one hll of a career, and in 1998, he gave the Cubs one hell of a run. Gary Gaetti owned.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson
#39 - Pedro Valdes
#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais
#15 - Mark Clark
#14 - Lance Johnson
#13 - Brant Brown
#12 - Jose Hernandez
#11 - Steve Trachsel
#10 - Henry Rodriguez
#9 - Kevin Tapani
#8 - Mickey Morandini

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #9 Kevin Tapani

9. Kevin Tapani
After a solid career that peaked in 1991 when he had an ERA under 3.00 for the World Series Champion Minnesota Twins, the Cubs signed him before the 1997 season as he was recovering from an injury. Although he did not make his debut until July, he still managed to produce a 9-3 record with a 3.39 ERA in 13 starts that year so it looked to be a worthwhile investment for the Cubs.

In 1998, he continued his winning ways, and that is what he was most known for during that year. Despite having a 4.85 ERA in 219 innings, he still managed a 19-9 record on the year. Even at a young age, I knew that ERA was a better indicator than wins and losses, but it didn't matter. What mattered is that when Tapani pitched, the Cubs won. Sure, he wasn't the biggest contributing factor in many of those games, but probability doesn't matter during a season, all that matters is results, and Tapani managed to put up 19 wins that year.

Tapani's year was a bit odd, as he had a 3.80 ERA at home but a 5.81 ERA on the road. That's not so weird as even though Wrigley Field is usually a hitter's park, it is usually easier to pitch at home. What makes it odd is that he somehow managed a 5.40 ERA in day games which the Cubs are known for playing a lot more of than any other team. If you put him in Wrigley at night, this man was straight money.

With that mixed bag of results, his regular season highlight may have been the complete game shutout of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but it may have been July 20, 1998. With the bases loaded, Tapani was in an unfamiliar position; instead of pitching his way out of it, he was up at the plate with a full count against Denny Neagle. Neagle threw a changeup to try to trick Tapani, but due to his slow bat speed, it worked out perfectly for him as he hit the ball out of the park for a grand slam, something Sammy Sosa had never done at that point in his career.

But the most important thing about Tapani that season is that he really did pitch his best when it mattered most. Chicago was down 1-0 in their NLDS matchup with Atlanta, and the Cubs sent Tapani to the mound to take on Tom Glavine and the Braves for Game 2. Both pitchers put up zeroes through five innings. Tapani gave up a pair of hits in the first inning but only gave up one hit over the next four frames.

In the top of the sixth, Tapani put his bat to work. After Mickey Morandini and Scott Servais started off the inning with back-to-back singles, Tapani strode confidently to the plate. With the pressure on and a future Hall-of-Famer pitching, Tapani reared back and dropped down a sacrifice bunt to put both runners in scoring position. Lance Johnson would hit a ball to the outfield that was deep enough to bring Morandini home for a 1-0 lead for the Cubs.

And Tapani continued to dominate on the mound. The Braves managed two baserunners from innings 5-8, as Tapani continued to perplex their batters by mixing things up. Unfortunately, the Cubs were not able to add to their lead as a combination of Tom Glavine, John Rocker, and Rudy Seanez were able to shut down the Cubs batters from adding to the lead.

Up 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth, Jim Riggleman had a tough decision to make. Do you keep in Tapani to try to finish out the game, or do you bring in your closer, Rod Beck, a man who had 53 saves on the year to come in and do his damn job? Riggleman trusted Tapani to finish what he had started.

Ryan Klesko led off the inning, but Tapani was able to get hi to fly out to center field. One down, two to go. Next up was Javy Lopez. On a 1-0 pitch, Tapani hung a breaking ball and Lopez crushed it into the left field stands. Tie ball game. Tapani would recover to get the next two outs, and although the Cubs threatened in the top of the 10th, they were unable to score, and the Braves put up another run in the bottom half of that inning to win it and go up 2-0 before sweeping the Cubs in the next game.

He held on to pitch for three more seasons with the Cubs before retiring after 2001. His ERAs still ranged from 4.49 to 5.03, unfortunately that win magic was fully depleted as he won 6, 8, and 9 games respectively in those final years. He still loves the game as he now coaches high school baseball in Minnesota.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson
#39 - Pedro Valdes
#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais
#15 - Mark Clark
#14 - Lance Johnson
#13 - Brant Brown
#12 - Jose Hernandez
#11 - Steve Trachsel
#10 - Henry Rodriguez

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #31 Mike Morgan

31. Mike Morgan
Mike Morgan may not go down as an incredible baseball player, but he had an incredible career. He was drafted out of high school fourth overall, and he was in the major leagues later that year. He would go on to pitch 22 seasons in the major leagues, although it took him 25 years as he spent some of his early years strictly playing in the minors. Now his numbers were pedestrian for nearly the entirety of his career, but pitching over four separate decades is beyond incredible.

During his time, he pitched for 12 different teams, but the Cubs got more of his time than any other team as he spent five separate seasons with the team. His original run went from 1992-1995 before the Cubs traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals for Todd Zeile.

In 1998, the Cubs were in the hunt, but the trade deadline had come and gone with the Cubs still not solving their pitching issues. At least this time, they were looking to solve for starting pitching instead of relief. Luckily, players could still be traded if they passed through waivers. So the Cubs sent Scott Downs to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for 38-year-old, Mike Morgan. Morgan was having one of his best years as he had a 3.49 ERA in 98 innings as a starter. More incredibly, despite starting 17 games, his record was just 4-2. That level of no-decisions is amazing.

Morgan would start five times for the Cubs down the stretch and put up an ERA of 7.15. The Cubs record in those games? 4-1, somehow. Every game but one of those was decided by a single run. The game that wasn't ended on a 3-run walk-off home run. His best outing was when he pitched six innings and gave up just two runs to the St. Louis Cardinals. It was the only game the Cubs lost. Baseball is weird.

He would move on to the bullpen during the playoffs where he had two scoreless appearances where he was trusted to finish out those games. Yes, they were both losses (they were all losses), but at least Morgan got some time out there. It took him 20 years, but he finally was able to pitch in a playoff game.

Morgan would go on to pitch four more years with the highlight of winning a World Series Championship with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001. I guess good things do happen to those who wait.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson
#39 - Pedro Valdes
#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - AL Central

Although baseball season is still a few weeks away, fantasy baseball season is here as draft rooms are opening and people are spending fake auction dollars on their favorite players. Everybody knows about the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world, so what you need to do stand out is find those hidden gems on each roster to propel yourself to fantasy greatness. I am going to go through each MLB roster to find at least one underrated player who will have you looking like a genius at the end of the season.

Today, we start the series with an oft-forgotten division, the AL Central.

Chicago White Sox - Tim Anderson
Tim Anderson had a really nice rookie year for any position but especially for a shortstop. He was a fairly well thought of prospect, and still, he barely makes ESPN's top 300 and is only ranked the 24th best shortstop. Now, yes, his BABIP was unsustainable as that .375 number is probably not going to hold up, but with his speed and batted ball profile, it is likely to remain above average. There's also a good chance that he can reduce his K% to make more contact meaning the BABIP won't have to remain quite as hight. On top of this, he managed 49 stolen bases in AA in 2015, and I think he could see a decent spike in those stolen base numbers this year. There is a lot of depth at shortstop this year, and outside of the top 5 (Machado, Correa, Seager, Lindor, Bogaerts), are you totally confident that any of them will definitely outproduce Anderson? I'm not, and considering where he's ranked, he'll make an excellent late-round addition.

Cleveland Indians - Cody Allen
Poor Cody Allen. He is a guy who is underestimated not by anything that he did, but because his teammate is Andrew Miller, possibly the most dominant reliever in all of baseball. Since most teams use their most dominant reliever in the closer role, everyone goes into this season that Allen will lose his job. Is it possible? Of course, but Allen has been a pretty darn good reliever these last few years, and one of Miller's greatest attributes is his versatility. Terry Francona is going to do everything eh can to keep Allen in the closer role, and he's likely to produce top-10 results with top-5 upside while currently only ranked as the 19th best relief pitcher. Drafting closers is rarely sexy, but it can still be valuable.

Detroit Tigers - Justin Upton
If I can justify selecting a brother (non-racist way), I'm going to do it. My fascination with drafting brothers in fantasy is a long and sordid affair that almost never works out for me. It started with the Giles brothers, drifted to the Drews, and finally made it to the Uptons. Despite it usually doing me more harm than good, I still always enjoy my experience. But I do believe this is a good year to buy in on Upton. Although he started off poorly for the Tigers, he lowered his strikeout rate and hit 22 home runs in 68 games during the second half last year. I think he's far closer to that second half player for the whole season this year. Although he's ranked in the 60s, I think he can produce at least that if not be up in the top-40 at the end of the year.

Kansas City Royals - Jorge Soler
Joe Maddon said he was Vladimir Guerrero with better plate discipline. That comment will never die in my head, and that means I will end up with Jorge Soler for the next ten years in fantasy baseball by drafting him 100 spots before anyone else. I'm kind of serious. He's ranked 260 right now. I will be at least considering him at 160. Dominant relievers are more highly valued than ever before, and the Royals were happy to trade one of the most dominant relievers for Jorge Soler. Clearly, they believe in him; clearly, I believe in him, and, guys...VLAD GUERRERO WITH BETTER PLATE DISCIPLINE.

Minnesota Twins - Byron Buxton
I'll admit this pick could be a year too early, but Buxton still gives plenty to dream on. Even though Buxton was drafted in 2012, he has far less minor league experience than other people from that draft as injuries have cut short a lot of his time, and he had that compounded by being brought up to the major leagues before he was ready. Still, he struggled in the majors, got sent down, raked in AAA, and showed improvement when he got called back up. It wasn't huge, but he hit some more homers, doubled his walk rate, and slightly improved on the strikeouts. If he can continue to lower that strikeout percentage, it is going to improve every aspect of his game, as just putting the ball in play makes him dangerous with his speed. If the power continues to blossom, you're looking at a true five-tool player. I'm not sure if that's going to happen, especially in 2017, but there were enough positive signs to make him worth the risk late in the draft.

The Most Underrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 1

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So now it is time for the underrated prospects.  Today, I will focus on guys that are on Top 100 lists, and next week, I'll finish up the series with the more obscure players that I think will catapult forward this year.  If you missed the overrated, you can check it out here and here.

Ben Revere - CF - Twins - Average Rank:  92
I don't get it.  Okay, I kind of get it, but I still find it ridiculous.  All Ben Revere does is hit.  Does he hit for power?  Not at all, but he gets hits, draws enough walks, steals bases, and has good range in center.  He doesn't just lack power at the plate as it has also been reported that he has a noodle arm.  But if Chang has taught us anything, it's that "Fast don't lie."  He has a poor arm, but his speed should at least make him an adequate center fielder.  Here's some numbers for you:  .325, .379, .311, .305.  Those are his averages in his four years in the minors; he's also never had an OBP lower than .371.  He doesn't have the ceiling that the top tier guys have, but he is going to be a valuable leadoff hitter in the majors, and those don't exactly grow on trees.  I'd put him in the Top-30, and since American Heroes always get bumped up ten spots, I'll put him in the Top-20 if somebody can prove he's related to Paul.

Derek Norris - C - Nationals - Average Rank:  67
Norris, like all the guys on this list, is awesome.  Why is he so awesome?  Well, first off, he's a catcher, and he can actually remain a catcher when he gets to the majors.  He's also shown progress, as up until last year, he has kept getting better and better.  But don't let last year fool you, because only dummies would rank this guy low.  He had a wrist injury last year, and wrist injuries almost always sap power and can also make people alter their swing as they get more comfortable.  Norris only had a batting average of .235, but his OBP was a pretty ridiculous .419.  He also slugged .419 which looks bad at first glance, but considering his low batting average and the wrist injury he was dealing with, it's pretty damn impressive.  I don't think he'll hit for a high batting average, but his plate discipline should still help him get around a .350 OBP, and he has the power potential to slug .500 in the majors.  With that stat line, he'd hold his own in a corner outfield spot, the fact that he'll be able to do it behind the plate makes this guy a Top-20 prospect in my book.

Chris Carter – 1B/OF - Athletics - Average Rank:  54
Chris Carter does one thing that I absolutely hate, and that's strike out...a lot.  Despite this, I'm still extremely high on him.  Chris Carter is someone that struggles early on.  If you look at his stats at the end of May, you will think this guy is a bust and not worthy of the title of a top prospect.  But as the year goes on, he just keeps getting better and better.   I love that he adjusts as the season goes on, because I think he has shown the ability to adapt to new challenges and become a great hitter at every level.  I think he is a guy who will always struggle in batting average, but the power is real, and he knows how to draw a walk.  Adam Dunn seems to be a fair comparison, although I'd feel more comfortable calling him Adam Dunn-light.  Personally, I think the A’s horribly mishandled his development by adding so many corner outfield bats this year, because he’s a guy that needs to take his lumps at the major league level, so he can become a great asset by the end of the season.  Still, I feel like this is a Top-20 prospect.

Brett Lawrie - 2B? - Blue Jays - Average Rank:  50
Why do I love Brett Lawrie?  Because he’s lazy and he’s still awesome.  The Brewers told him he should probably go to the Arizona Fall League to get more work, he said he was too tired.  I bet he napped through the entire fall, and I'm pretty sure that's called hibernation, which means he may have the strength of a bear.  He is awful at defense, and yet he refuses to work on it.  That's so cool.  Should his makeup concern me? Of course it should. But does it? God no, because the skillset is there for him to be awesome.  He’s been young for his leagues, and he's been great, plus many believe (including me) that a lot of his extra base hits will turn into home runs.  The guy can do anything offensively as he even has good speed as he had 16 triples and 30 stolen bases last year.  Even if he moves to a corner outfield spot (where he probably still won't give a shit), his bat will play anywhere.  If he even gives half a shit about defense, his bat has the potential to explode and make him a consensus Top-15 prospect.

Miguel Sano – 3B - Twins - Average Rank:  51
I love Miguel Sano.  I love him so much.  I have trouble putting my love for him into words, so bear with me as we work through this passion together.  I love Latin American players who get large bonuses.  This is one of the oddest things to love, but these are the prospects that I have an undying belief in.  I sometimes pop wood when I simply hear the words "high ceiling."  I also put way too much stock in short-season numbers when they come from these bonus babies.  This is why I love Miguel Sano.  His line in the Gulf Coast League was .291/.337/.466.  That line doesn't scream superstar, but he doesn't turn 18 until the middle of May.  Scouting reports are very high on him, and so am I.  This guy is going to be a stud.  I could play it safe and say he should be Top-20, but that's no fun.  Top-15 is reasonable, but what's the fun in reason?  I'd put him Top-10, and if you keep me talking about him, I could put him in the Top-5.  His ceiling is so high.  High...ceiling, oh yeah.

Next week, I will end this series with five more obscure prospects that I see leaping into the Top-100 for 2012.

-Joe

P.S.  For anybody who thinks that cartwheel kicks are silly and are not a viable strategy in MMA, I present to you Brian Ebersole's counter-argument:

The Most Overrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 1

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So I figured I'd shorten up my work and give you the ten prospects that I think are overrated and the ten that are underrated.  I'll start with the overrated, because it's fun to depress fans of certain teams and it's so much easier to hate than it is to love (Poetic, I know).

For clarity, I will list their name, position, organization, and the highest ranking I have seen them in a Top 100 list.

10.  Jonathan Singleton - 1B - Phillies - Highest Ranking:  11th
This one could end up making me look like a jackass, I'll admit that.  I don't have a ton of confidence from what I have read from scouting reports, and his numbers were rather impressive.  But this is a gut feeling.  He absolutely crushed the ball the first half of the year in Low-A, but then was pretty awful in the second half.  Most people have said that he just wasn't ready for the grind of a minor league season.  For his sake, I hope that's the case.  But I'm a big believer in that if you are a first base prospect, you need to crush the ball, and never stop crushing the ball, because anybody can play first base, but you really can't play anywhere else.

9.  Mike Minor - SP - Braves - Highest Ranking:  11
Minor was seen as an overdraft when the Braves took him in the top 10 in the draft a couple years ago.  Then he decided to add a few MPH on his pitches, and people got really excited.  For good reason, things that go fast are way cooler than things that go slow.  Plus, he struck out over a batter per inning in the minors, so that's another reason to think he's really groovy.  Shit, I'm starting to like him more and more.  Anyway, his pitches aren't that good, so he's not somebody who should be a top 20 prospect.

8.  Jose Iglesias - SS - Red Sox - Highest Ranking:  29th
It's not so much that I hate Jose Iglesias, it's that I hate the idea of Jose Iglesias.  There is always a Jose Iglesias rated too high on prospect lists.  Before him, it was Alcides Escobar (last year's most overrated prospect), and before that it was Chin-lung Hu.  It goes on and on way back to year 33 when Jesus ranked Judas way too high on his disciple list (To be fair, Judas had character concerns on top of questions about his bat).  They are the guys who are amazing fielders, but can't hit.  People dream, and say if they can just be an average hitter, they'll be a winning player for a team.  But guess what.  It's really tough to hit major league pitching.  These guys with no pop but good control of the strike zone just get overpowered as they move up to higher levels.  If Iglesias reaches his ceiling, he becomes an average hitter and a great defender at shortstop.  What is that worth?  I don't know, and neither does anybody else, because as much progress that has been made in valuing defensive contributions, there's still a lot of question marks.  There is no way this is a Top-50 Prospect.

7.  Matt Dominguez - 3B - Marlins - Highest Ranking:  21st
He is exactly like Jose Iglesias, except he's not a good enough defender to play shorstop, so he's just a really good defensive third baseman, hence way less valuable.  He hits better than a shortstop, but if everything pans out, he'll be an average hitter at a position where you need an above average bat.  Pass.

6.  Aaron Hicks - CF - Twins - Highest Ranking:  10th
I like toolsy prospects, so Hicks is a tough guy to hate on, but it is a necessity.  Everybody's got him fairly high, but I think 10th is absolutely ridiculous.  He still has a ridiculously high ceiling, but he had his second year at Low-A and still didn't come close to dominating the level.  I mean, he was solid, but for a guy that are expecting such big things from, he certainly stand out.  If he actualizes the tools, he could be great, but I don't see that happening, and at best, he's about 50 spots too high.

And that's all for today, but I'll be back next week for 5-1 of the most overrated prospects in the game.

-Joe

P.S.  This may be old, and Deadspin may have already posted it this week, and Valentine's Day may be over, but Delonte West on love is maybe the greatest thing ever.

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 20-11

I'm almost done posting all of these, so that's exciting. Nick Devlin and anybody with a lot of free time, enjoy.

20 Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins – Sorry JVD, but this is a little high for the LoMo. He’s a first base prospect without that much power. That’s not exactly a recipe for success. This guy will definitely be a major league ballplayer, but his ceiling doesn’t seem high enough to put him in the Top 20. His ceiling is a non-gold glove version of John Olerud. He can hit for average, he’ll definitely get on base, and you’ll still yearn for Ryan Howard. Another thing that I feel bad about for LoMo is that his Twitter account is @LoMoMarlins. He does know he’s going to have to change that once he reaches arbitration, right?

19 Aaron Hicks, of, Twins – I’m thinking this guy should probably be about 20 spots lower. Hicks oozes potential and could be a five-tool monster in center field, but a lot of those tools haven’t shown up on a baseball field yet. He showed great plate discipline, but his average was barely .250, and he didn’t manage to slug .400. He has the potential to blow up, but until he actually proves something in the minor leagues, I would be cautious on some of his projections.

18 Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays – He’s from Iowa, so obviously, I think he’s fantastic. But he’s also got the numbers and scouting reports to back it up, so he is deserving of this ranking, and I could even put him a few spots higher. He has gotten Greg Maddux comparisons, which is pretty much impossible to live up to, but he has three plus-pitches, and maybe the best command in minor league baseball. After thinking these last thirty seconds, I’d probably put him in my Top 10.

17 Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers – I would probably put this guy in the Top 10, and near the top 5 as he dominated Low-A, and was promoted to Double-A as an 18 year old. The only complaint about him is that he isn’t the ideal size of a pitcher, but he has three plus pitches already and he’s shown domination in his short minor league career. The guy is so good that he could get a September callup to the big leagues. Who gives a shit about size when a guy is this good? Consider me on the Martin Perez bandwagon.

16 Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs – No. No. No. This is the second most overrated player on the list (the first is coming soon). Yes, I know he was able to hit for a very good average at both High-A and Double-A as a 19 year-old. I cannot take that away. That is impressive. All the while, he showed up as a plus defender at shortstop. That is very good too. But where’s the potential? He doesn’t draw many walks, and he doesn’t have much power, nor does he project to add much power. So here’s his best-case scenario, a rather empty .300 hitter with solid defense. Without a doubt, that’s an asset, but that isn’t the 16th best prospect in baseball, especially when that’s his BEST case scenario. Sorry Cubs fans, you’ve still got a long ways to go.

15 Domonic Brown, of, Phillies – Fair ranking for Brown. The guy has all the tools to be great, and he did very well at High-A and Double-A last year. He could be near a .300 hitter and slug over .500. Some question his power potential, but he was able to slug over .500 at both levels last year, so the potential of him being a 30 home run guy is still there. He’s a very good athlete, and I think the Phillies have every intention of him taking Jayson Werth’s spot in 2011.

14 Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants – I think Bumgarner is the second best pitching prospect in baseball, and he could make me look very smart or very stupid for saying that. When he’s on, he’s electric with a great fastball and breaking ball with an average change. He absolutely dominated everything in sight in his minor league career. The big concern is that his velocity was only in the high 80s for the second half of the season. He still dominated, and did well when he came to the majors for a brief stint. If he’s that good without velocity, imagine how badass he’ll be when he gets it back. That is why I would still put him in the Top 5 of all prospects in baseball.

13 Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers – Smoak looks like he’s placed about right, maybe a little high. His numbers haven’t been great outside of his time with Team USA. He dominated Double-A, but a lof of that was plate discipline as opposed to raw power as he failed to slug .500. I don’t think he is a serious threat to Chris Davis in spring training this year, and I could see him not getting called up until September. There is very little doubt that this guy will fail to succeed in the majors, but I have trouble seeing superstar potential in him.

12 Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers – The most OVERRATED prospect in all of baseball. He hits for average, is fast, and plays good defense. That’s it. That’s all you need to be the 12th best prospect in baseball. He doesn’t have great plate discipline, he’s got very little power, and he’s had troubles with right handers. He is around this area on just about everybody’s list, and I simply don’t get it. At #12, you need to be a world beater, and this guy is not. He should probably be about 50 spots lower.

11 Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners – I really can’t find much fault in Ackley, and this seems like a fair ranking for him. Although he is trying second base right now, the worst case scenario is that he’s a weak-armed center fielder. He can hit for average and also has great plate discipline. He hit 22 homers as a junior at North Carolina, so he seems to be the total package. Even if the power doesn’t totally translate, he’ll be a good center fielder or an All-Star second baseman.

-Joe

P.S. Here are my picks for all the fights this weekend: Askren, Hornbuckle, Soto, Lindland, Woodley, and Tim Sylvia over Mariusz Pudzianowski.

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 60-51

I know these aren't the most fun-filled writings, but this is my vanity project, so read at your own peril. I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 60-51.

60 Tyler Flowers, c, White Sox – I think this guy could be about ten spots higher on the list. He absolutely crushed the ball at Double-A for the majority of the season, and he was solid when he got up to Triple-A. The biggest question marks surrounding his game was his ability to stay behind the plate, and he made strides defensively where he appears that he will at least be able to be average on defense. He’s got great plate discipline and can slug over .500, so I’d expect him to get some time in the majors this year before taking over the full-time catching duties in 2011.

59 Brett Lawrie, 2b, Brewers – I really like Lawrie, and in a very strange way, I feel like I may overrate Canadian prospects. Something about them makes me think they’ll be awesome. He’s god-awful on defense at second, so there’s a good chance he’ll have to move to left field. He hit very well for a teenager in the Midwest League last year, so the bat should be good enough to play out there. If he does have to move out to left, his bat will still need to progress, but he’s young, and most people believe that he is going to get better. Since he’s from Canada, I assume he spent a lot of his time working towards a career in professional wrestling, so he may have only played 15-20 games of baseball before being drafted. You know what I always say, if you can hit a moonsault, you can hit a curveball.


58 Wilson Ramos, c, Twins – I like this rating for Ramos. He struggled with injuries last year, but hit over .300 when healthy at Double-A, and also slugged .454. He plays good defense at catcher so he will definitely be a valuable asset in the major leagues. I could definitely see him getting a late call-up this year. As for the future, I can’t really think of anybody the Twins have that might halt his ascension to the major leagues but maybe I’m forgetting someone.


57 Simon Castro, rhp, Padres – I’d probably put Castro a little lower than this. He did dominate at Low-A last year, but he relied heavily on his fastball. Although it is a dominant pitch, he’ll need to learn more if he wants to succeed at higher levels. His slider shows promise, and his changeup is just a show-me pitch right now that he rarely used. He’ll have to progress his secondary stuff if he wants to stay a starter, otherwise, I only see him being a setup type reliever.

56 Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets – I like Mejia a lot as I really think he could be a huge factor in the big leagues if handled properly. The Mets don’t usually do that, so he’ll probably end up a shredded arm and a what if scenario. If that doesn’t happen though, he’s got a huge fastball, and his changeup has shown potential. His breaking ball needs work, but he did well at Double-A last year as a teenager, so there’s a ton of potential with this guy. Consistency is going to be a big key, but that’s the case with most players his age, and he has the ability to take a huge step forward this year.

55 Jared Mitchell, of, White Sox – This seems like a pretty fair spot for Mitchell. The guy has tools coming out of his ass, but he is still raw as this past year was the first year that he focused solely on baseball. There’s some holes in his swing right now, but with how raw he is, there is a chance he can help himself in that area. He didn’t hit a homerun in his pro debut (34 Low-A games), but the power has shown up in college and he still has the potential for thirty homeruns. As with all toolsy players, he could be great or he could be Corey Patterson.
NOTE: He's injured and out for the year so we'll see how he can bounce back in 2011.

54 Reid Brignac, ss, Rays – I think this is way too high for Brignac. The guy has not produced for years, and people keep making excuses for him. Personally, I think he has an aggressive approach that eventually caught up to him. I think he could be a solid hitter, but I really don’t see him as anything great, even accounting for the fact that he’s a middle infielder. I think he could make a claim for the low side of the Top 100, but that’s about it for him.

53 Donavan Tate, of, Padres – This ranking absolutely baffles me, because he was seen as a far better prospect than just about anybody in the draft, but somehow, guys who were taken 10-15 picks later now rank ahead of him. I don’t think he became less of a ballplayer, and I don’t think any of these guys took a giant leap forward in their ten minor league games. The guy has all the tools to succeed, but he has a very far ways to go. It should be an exciting year for him as he’ll probably be in Low-A.

52 Grant Green, ss, Athletics – Baseball America and I agree on this one as he was one of the most highly regarded prospects going into last year, but had a solid, but not spectacular Junior year at USC. This may sound weird, but I really like prospects that have built up a track record and then don't live up to expectations going into the draft as I feel there is real value there. I think he is going to be a very good player with All-Star potential, but I don’t think he can rate any higher than this without any sort of performance track record to go off of in the minor leagues. Still, this is a guy that I could see moving quickly in the minors as well as being much higher on next year’s prospect list.

51 Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves – I think this is a fair rating for Teheran. He has huge potential, but he was average in Low-A last year, so there’s a lot of work to do. The raw talent is definitely there, but he needs innings to refine his secondary pitches to compliment his mid 90s heat. This should be a very interesting prospect to watch this year as he could take a huge step forward, or he could leave people left dreaming on his potential for another year.

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 70-61

I know these aren't the most fun-filled writings, but this is my vanity project, so read at your own peril. I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. I will try to make at least one off color comment on each player to keep it at least somewhat entertaining. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 70-61.

70 Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs – Vitters would definitely make my Top 50 and maybe even Top 40. He destroyed Low-A, hitting everything in sight, and then basically got his ass kicked in 50 games at High-A. But he made up for this by doing very well during the Arizona Fall League. His defense has improved to average at third. The biggest question is his plate discipline as he doesn’t draw many walks, but he’s able to hit so many pitches, both in and out of the strike zone, that I don’t think it will stop him from being a very productive third baseman. Also, I'm assuming he'll be my buddy Peck's best friend when he plays for the Iowa Cubs. Congratulations to Peck for being in a relationship. Even if most states won't recognize gay marriage, at least Facebook will recognize gay relationships.

69 Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Braves – I’m way high on Vizcaino as he’d be about 30 spots higher on my list. He was the reason that the Braves traded Javier Vasquez (and the fact that they wanted to save money). He’s undersized which immediately makes me like him more than any list will. He’s got a great fastball, and his curveball has already shown the potential to be a plus-plus pitch. He dominated short-season ball last year, and I expect him to do more of the same when he makes his full season debut this year. Also, I really wish Harry Caray was still around so he could say Vizcaino again. Also, Harry hated Cracker Jack.


68 Alex Colome, rhp, Rays – This guy has HUGE potential, so I could see him about 20 spots higher than where they have him right now. He dominated the New York-Penn League last year, and scouts came away extremely impressed as most feel he has the highest ceiling in the Rays farm system (which is saying a lot considering their bevy of pitching prospects). Right now, consistency with command and release point are his big issues, but if he can get that going, he’s a guy that could skyrocket up the charts next year. He is related to Jesus Colome, so that's his worst case scenario.

67 Tim Beckham, ss, Rays – Beckham seems reasonably rated at this spot. His first full season was a pretty big disappointment, but there’s a reason he was the #1 pick a couple years ago. He wasn’t a definitive #1 like Strasburg, but scouts still like his tools. I honestly don’t know enough about him to comment any more, but I do think he has the best chance of moving 30+ spots on next year’s list. Whether he moves up or down is still up in the air. He also has no relation to David Beckham.

66 Dan Hudson, rhp, White Sox – I think Hudson should probably be 20-30 spots higher than this as I am a huge fan of his. What he did was very similar to what Matt Garza did a few years ago when he made his way to the majors. He absolutely dominated Low-A, High-A, and Double-A last year. Then he was good in Triple-A and the majors when he made it there. The only concerns are that his slider needs some refinement and he works up in the zone a little too much. It was his first full season in the minors, and he has a good chance of making an impact at the major league level this year, but I see him starting the year at Triple-A. Still, a great prospect who I feel Baseball America is highly underrating. No relation to Tim Hudson.

65 Alex White, rhp, Indians – I think this is a fair ranking for White, but I do like him more than most and he’s a little higher in my book. He hasn’t pitched any professional innings, and his junior year was a bit of a disappointment, but the guy had a great college career. He’s got a very good fastball and splitter as well as an average slider, and I think he can stay in a starting role as opposed to moving to the bullpen. Really though, there’s not much to go on right now, so we’ll see how he does once he starts facing the professionals. Contrary to popular belief, he is not the son of Vanna White.

64 Jason Knapp, rhp, Indians – Here’s a guy that is rated too high for my likings. Although his strikeout rate was excellent, he still had a rather high ERA. The biggest concern is he had many injuries including a shoulder surgery that ended his season. I just think there are way too may question marks regarding Knapp to put him up this high, and I think he’s about 20 spots lower. Still, the raw talent is there, scouts love him, but I still think I’d take the wait and see approach on this guy. Although I was unable to confirm this, he is probably not as tough as Brandon Knapp.

63 Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles – I think this is a pretty fair rating for him as he did a good job in High-A last year with a 2.70 ERA and striking out nearly a batter per inning. The biggest thing that Britton brings to the table is a 3.4:1 ratio of groundballs to fly balls. He’s got solid stuff, but only has his sinker and slider to rely on right now as his changeup is still a work in progress. If the changeup develops, he goes up on the list, but he could still remain in this area next year if it doesn’t as any pitcher who can induce that many groundballs will find a way to the majors. He is not from Britain.

62 Ike Davis, 1b, Mets – I’d probably put Ike Davis a little lower than this. He’s a first base prospect who isn’t all that athletic, but he did hit the ball very well at Double-A last year so the guy can do enough to be a starting first baseman. Still, he struggled against left-handers, and he strikes out more than one would like. Still, he knows how to work a count and crushed righties, so I think he’ll be a starting first baseman, but I think he may end up being a middle-tier first baseman as opposed to a top tier guy.

61 Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins – I think this is a fair ranking for him, as although I like him a lot, there are health concerns that, well, concern me. Gibson was one of the top arms in college coming into his final college season, but he lost some of his velocity late in the season, but was still able to dominate. Then, a stress fracture in his forearm was found, so he fell to late in the first round. I thought it was an excellent value pick, as he has two very good pitches (fastball, slider), and a solid changeup. He has very good command, and he is somebody who should be able to plow through the minors quickly. If the velocity is back, he is a steal for the Twins.

That's it for now, but I will be making UFC picks later today.

-Joe

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 100-91

I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 100-91.

100 Noel Arguelles, lhp, Royals – I would actually probably put Arguelles higher than this, and that is based off barely anything. He’s got four pitches, so that’s pretty cool. He’s Cuban, so he knows a thing or two about cigars. He got a big time major league contract, so they’re probably going to be pretty aggressive with him, and that’s impressive for a 20 year old. I get boners for potential, so I might put him around 75.

99 Jake Arrieta, rhp, Orioles – I like Arrieta a little more than this, but I understand putting him this low due to concerns about his secondary stuff. Most believe he has the best fastball in the system, but his secondary pitches need work. He was still able to dominate Double-A and do pretty well at Triple-A, so I would put him higher on this list, but the progress of his secondary pitches will determine whether he can reach his potential of #2-#3 starter of if he’s a back-of-the-rotation/bullpen guy.

98 Jay Jackson, rhp, Cubs – I like Jackson more than this as I could see him about 20 spots higher. He did very well at Double-A, striking out nearly a batter per inning. Then he got too badass for the Cubs liking, so they sent him down to High-A for disciplinary reasons. He then decided to murder-rape opposing hitters in that league just to show he felt no remorse for his actions. He’s got a good fastball-slider combo, and also has a decent curve and a change. I think he’s the Cubs best pitching prospect, but that’s kind of like being the prettiest girl in Nebraska, it’s nice, but not anything to put on a resume.

97 Peter Bourjos, of, Angels – This is a fair ranking for Bourjos. He is one of the fastest players in the minor leagues and he had a solid year at Double-A last year despite battling wrist problems. His plate discipline took a big step forward last year, so there’s a good chance he can be a solid leadoff hitter that plays good defense in center field. He’s not a superstar, but he’ll definitely contribute on a major league team. Also, I can understand knocking him down a peg or two, because his last name looks kinda French.

96 Thomas Neal, of, Giants – This guy is a pure hitter who absolutely dominated at High-A last year. The only problem with that is that a lot of people have been known to smoke the ball in the California League. Still, many scouts think that he can hit for a .300 average with average power as a pro. He’ll pretty much have to as the bat is his only tool (must be tough to get a girlfriend), but he will definitely have a spot in the majors if he can reach his potential.

95 Andrew Cashner, rhp, Cubs – I think this is a fair ranking, although I do not see him staying a starter when he gets to the majors. The Cubs have tried the conversion, but his power stuff takes a step backwards when he is used in longer stints, and his changeup only projects to be an average pitch. If they put him in the bullpen, they’ll have a guy who can dial his heater up into the high 90s as well as having a plus slider to compliment it. On top of that, his delivery isn’t the smoothest so a move to the bullpen would increase his chances of staying healthy. Also, he is one of two guys that reminds me that I should draft for the Cubs, as I would have taken Tim Melville this year, and I would have taken Travis Snider instead of Tyler Colvin. I do approximately 15 minutes of researching amateurs, and I could still do a better job than the Cubs.

94 Miguel Sano, ss/3b, Twins – I like Sano way more than this, as he’s easily in my top 40. This is based off absolutely nothing stats wise, but he may have been the best player in the international market this year, and I like that the Twins ponied up the money for him. The Twins do a good job of recognizing talent, and I think they could have themselves a very special player here. Now, this premonition that I have really means nothing and won’t mean anything for possibly up to three years. He’s a far ways away, but he should be a fun guy to watch make his way up the ladder (or be a complete bust).

93 Phillippe Aumont, rhp, Phillies – I like Aumont more than this, and that is almost strictly based on me seeing him one time in 2008. That is very little to go off of, but if you would have asked me who I would rather have between him and Jarrod Parker of the Diamondbacks, I would go Aumont hands down. He pitched about five innings and made people look silly the entire game. He was overpowering, and nobody made good contact the entire day. He pitched in relief last year, but with the Phillies moving him back to starting, I think he will take a major step forward for 2011 prospect lists. Unfortunately, when it comes to French-Canadians, his athletic prowess will always trail GSP and Jacques Rougeau.

92 Drew Storen, rhp, Nationals – I like Storen a lot, but this is probably a fair ranking for a relief prospect without the shit-your-pants overpowering stuff. He dominated at three different levels last year (although a short time at each stop), and he actually has a decent shot to get called up before Strasburg does this season. The ceiling isn’t unbelievable, but the probability of this guy being a closer is very likely so that definitely helps his cause.

91 Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros – I could probably bump up Lyles a little bit from this spot. He dominted Low-A last year where he had 167 strikeouts in 144 innings. He has a good fastball, and his secondary pitches are average right now, but they could definitely get better as he’s a young guy and experience could definitely refine him some. I love strikeouts, they may not give me a boner, but I’ve definitely got a chub just thinking about them.



-Joe

P.S. If you want to see a really disturbing video, check this out.