Showing posts with label Dodgers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dodgers. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #9 Kevin Tapani

9. Kevin Tapani
After a solid career that peaked in 1991 when he had an ERA under 3.00 for the World Series Champion Minnesota Twins, the Cubs signed him before the 1997 season as he was recovering from an injury. Although he did not make his debut until July, he still managed to produce a 9-3 record with a 3.39 ERA in 13 starts that year so it looked to be a worthwhile investment for the Cubs.

In 1998, he continued his winning ways, and that is what he was most known for during that year. Despite having a 4.85 ERA in 219 innings, he still managed a 19-9 record on the year. Even at a young age, I knew that ERA was a better indicator than wins and losses, but it didn't matter. What mattered is that when Tapani pitched, the Cubs won. Sure, he wasn't the biggest contributing factor in many of those games, but probability doesn't matter during a season, all that matters is results, and Tapani managed to put up 19 wins that year.

Tapani's year was a bit odd, as he had a 3.80 ERA at home but a 5.81 ERA on the road. That's not so weird as even though Wrigley Field is usually a hitter's park, it is usually easier to pitch at home. What makes it odd is that he somehow managed a 5.40 ERA in day games which the Cubs are known for playing a lot more of than any other team. If you put him in Wrigley at night, this man was straight money.

With that mixed bag of results, his regular season highlight may have been the complete game shutout of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but it may have been July 20, 1998. With the bases loaded, Tapani was in an unfamiliar position; instead of pitching his way out of it, he was up at the plate with a full count against Denny Neagle. Neagle threw a changeup to try to trick Tapani, but due to his slow bat speed, it worked out perfectly for him as he hit the ball out of the park for a grand slam, something Sammy Sosa had never done at that point in his career.

But the most important thing about Tapani that season is that he really did pitch his best when it mattered most. Chicago was down 1-0 in their NLDS matchup with Atlanta, and the Cubs sent Tapani to the mound to take on Tom Glavine and the Braves for Game 2. Both pitchers put up zeroes through five innings. Tapani gave up a pair of hits in the first inning but only gave up one hit over the next four frames.

In the top of the sixth, Tapani put his bat to work. After Mickey Morandini and Scott Servais started off the inning with back-to-back singles, Tapani strode confidently to the plate. With the pressure on and a future Hall-of-Famer pitching, Tapani reared back and dropped down a sacrifice bunt to put both runners in scoring position. Lance Johnson would hit a ball to the outfield that was deep enough to bring Morandini home for a 1-0 lead for the Cubs.

And Tapani continued to dominate on the mound. The Braves managed two baserunners from innings 5-8, as Tapani continued to perplex their batters by mixing things up. Unfortunately, the Cubs were not able to add to their lead as a combination of Tom Glavine, John Rocker, and Rudy Seanez were able to shut down the Cubs batters from adding to the lead.

Up 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth, Jim Riggleman had a tough decision to make. Do you keep in Tapani to try to finish out the game, or do you bring in your closer, Rod Beck, a man who had 53 saves on the year to come in and do his damn job? Riggleman trusted Tapani to finish what he had started.

Ryan Klesko led off the inning, but Tapani was able to get hi to fly out to center field. One down, two to go. Next up was Javy Lopez. On a 1-0 pitch, Tapani hung a breaking ball and Lopez crushed it into the left field stands. Tie ball game. Tapani would recover to get the next two outs, and although the Cubs threatened in the top of the 10th, they were unable to score, and the Braves put up another run in the bottom half of that inning to win it and go up 2-0 before sweeping the Cubs in the next game.

He held on to pitch for three more seasons with the Cubs before retiring after 2001. His ERAs still ranged from 4.49 to 5.03, unfortunately that win magic was fully depleted as he won 6, 8, and 9 games respectively in those final years. He still loves the game as he now coaches high school baseball in Minnesota.

Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #12 Jose Hernandez

12. Jose Hernandez
Jose Hernandez might be the most 1998 Cubs player of them all. Obviously, he's not the most memorable, but I'm not sure if anybody embodied that season more than him. Hernandez was never impressive before 1998. He bounced around the Rangers' and Indians' organizations before coming to the Cubs in 1993 in exchange for Heathcliff Slocumb. He did put up his best minor league hitting stats in 1993, putting up a whopping ten home runs which over tripled his previous high of three. It ended up being enough to get him a shot at the big leagues. Over the next four years, he was a solid bench player for the team, filling in at third and shortstop when necessary. There was no reason to expect anything great in 1998.

Things didn't start out great for Hernandez. He was on the bench, and in the first month, he gave the Cubs no reason to make him a starter. On May 1, he was hitting an abysmal .167/.189/.306. But in May, he started putting things together, raising his line to .231/.276/.454, maybe not great, but enough to get hi 15 starts in the month instead of the five he got in April.

As the weather warmed, so did Hernandez's bat. By June, Hernandez was a full-time starter and his line continued its rise to .282/.335/.544. His numbers stayed steady in August before tiring out in September and having his numbers drop to a still impressive .254/.311/.471. I know that OBP may not impress people, but the starters at the beginning of the year were Kevin Orie and Jeff Blauser, so I'll take a low OBP for 23 home runs and 75 RBI on the left side of the infield. On top of those positions, he also played every other position outside of pitcher and catcher during the season. Jose Hernandez was awesome.

It was not a great playoffs for Hernandez. In Game 1, he failed to get a hit and made an error that led to the Braves first two runs of the game. He did not play in Game 2 before coming back in Game 3 and helping spark a rally with his second hit of the game. He ended up scoring, but the Cubs failed to score enough.

Things did not come together for the Cubs in 1999 as they were sitting at 48-53 at the trade deadline. The Cubs made one of the most depressing trades of my lifetime when they sent Hernandez and Terry Mulholland to the Braves just a year after they competed with Atlanta in the playoffs. They would follow that up by going 9-25 in their next 34 games, ending the year with the fourth worst record in baseball.

Hernandez would bounce around to Milwaukee where he would become an All-Star in 2002, Colorado, before coming back to the Cubs in 2003. It was not a long stint as he only lasted 33 days before the Cubs traded him again, this time to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Instead of being depressed, it was one of the greatest trades of my lifetime as they traded Hernandez along with Bobby Hill and a minor leaguer for Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez which would help spark the Cubs first playoff appearance since that 1998 season. Hernandez would go on to play for the Dodgers, Indians, Pirates again, Phillies, before ending his career in the Puerto Rico at age 39.

Jose Hernandez embodied the 1998 Chicago Cubs. This was not a team that came out of nowhere on the backs of young prospects making leaps in their performance. This was a team that came out of nowhere on the backs of veterans who had established their true level of performance but somehow exceeded even the rosiest of prognostications. The Cubs thought they had third base and shortstop solved going into the season. It turns out they did, but it came from a bench player who provided exactly what the Cubs needed.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais
#15 - Mark Clark

#14 - Lance Johnson

#13 - Brant Brown

Wednesday, August 8, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #13 Brant Brown

13. Brant Brown
Brant Brown was selected by the Cubs in the third round of the 1992 MLB draft. After tearing it up for a couple years, Brown was the Cubs second best prospect in 1994, just behind Brooks Kieschnick. He followed it up with two disappointing years before crushing it in Iowa and making his major league debut in June of 1996. He was great in limited time in 1996 but still spent the majority of 1997 in Iowa while not making much of an impact when he was in the big leagues. If he could spend the majority of year in the major leagues in 1998, it would be a huge victory for Brown.

He did MUCH more than that.

At the beginning of the year, it looked as though he would just spend time as a fourth or fifth outfielder, getting the occasional start when guys needed a rest. But one man's misfortune was Brown's lucky day as Lance Johnson suffered an injury early on that would cost him nearly half the season, and Brown was there to fill in as the starting center fielder.

And he filled his role well. He hit incredibly well. At the end of April, he was hitting .357/.419/.607. Although he didn't quite keep up that pace, he was still hitting incredibly well. On June 12, he hit three home runs against the Philadelphia Phillies with Mark Portugal getting abused for two of those home runs. Even an injury that cost him most of July didn't stop him as he came back and continued to hit well.

In August Lance Johnson retook his job as the starting center fielder and Glenallen Hill had joined the team and hurting baseballs like no other so Brown found it more difficult to find consistent starts, even going a ten day stretch in August between starts. But even playing sparingly down the stretch, he still ended the year with a .291/.348/.501 line in 124 games that season.

Now it was a little odd that Brown would be able to spend the majority of his time in center field since most of his time in the minor leagues was at first base. The Cubs had Mark Grace at first, so they turned Brown into an outfielder, even using him as a defensive replacement in left when he wasn't patrolling center field. They did this despite him not actually being a good fielder in the outfield.

Now, even I can admit that Glenallen Hill and Henry Rodriguez are not your ideal defensive players, but Brant Brown committed seven errors which is an incredibly high number for an outfielder, especially since he wasn't even a full-time starter. Oh well, it's not like any of those errors will be costly.

And that brings us to September 23rd. Both the Cubs and Mets were tied at 88-70 for the wildcard spot, while the Giants were in third at 85-72. Although the Giants would win that day, the Mets lost to the Astros, and the Cubs had a chance to take a lead over the Mets and effectively bury the Giants by winning. Everything started out great as the Cubs used a bunch of walks and a balk to put up two runs in the second, added another in the third, and the Cubs used Sammy Sosa's 65th and 66th home runs in the fifth and sixth inning to take a 7-0 lead. Today was a good day to be a Cubs fan.

But then the Brewers mounted their comeback. It started when the Brewers got hit after hit to put up four runs before the Cubs took out Steve Trachsel and put in Matt Karchner to end the rally. In the eighth, the Brewers finally got to Karchner with a walk, hit-by-pitch, and single which cut the lead to 7-5 going into the ninth. No big deal, the Cubs had Rod Beck to come in and close this game down for the team.

Now Rod Beck was a heart attack for Cubs fans throughout the entire season. He made every game exciting, and this one was no different. Although he got the first out, he then gave up a single and a double before walking Jeromy Burnitz to load the bases. But in classic Rod Beck form, he got Marquis Grissom to pop out to third for the second out. All that was left was Geoff Jenkins. Luckily, Beck induced a fly ball to left field to end the...

Aw, fudge.

I talked earlier about how Orlando Merced's game-winning home run was my favorite game of the season. Well, the Brant Brown game may have been my least favorite game of the season. I remember watching the end of it in my kitchen and just being dumbstruck at what happened. The Cubs did find a way to bounce back and ended up making the playoffs, but they lost all faith in Brant Brown who saw his reduced role turn into a nearly nonexistent one as he had just a single pinch hit at bat in the playoffs.

And even though that is by far my most vivid memory of Brown, I still remember him fondly. He came out of nowhere and hit the ball really well. And let's face it, no child gives a shit about defensive performance; it's all about the hitting, baby. Brant Brown did that part really well in 1998, and he even provided value to the Cubs for future seasons.

After the 1998 season concluded, the Cubs flipped Brown to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jon Lieber who would provide four very good years of pitching, including a fourth place finish for the Cy Young Award in 2001. Meanwhile, Brown would spend one year with the Pirates before being traded to the Marlins who traded him halfway through the season back to the Cubs, but 2000 would be his last season in the major leagues. He is still in baseball today as he went on to coach in the minor leagues and is currently on the Los Angeles Dodgers staff.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais

#15 - Mark Clark

#14 - Lance Johnson

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #18 Geremi Gonzalez

18. Geremi Gonzalez
Geremi, or Jeremi, Gonzalez depending on who you ask was a hot young pitcher for the Cubs in the late 1990s. He made his debut in 1997 and won 11 games while posting a very respectable 4.25 ERA. Hopes were high going into 1998 as him repeating that performance would turn him into a reliable part of the rotation, and considering his youth, there was plenty of opportunity for improvement.

Things did not start well for Gonzalez. In his first start of the season, he faced seven batters, and all seven of them reached base, with four walks and three hits, including a home run from Gary Sheffield. The only good news is that Amaury Telemaco only let two of the three inherited runners score.

After that, Gonzalez turned things around as his ERA dropped in each of his next six starts. During that span, he struck out 10 Dodgers in seven innings and ended that streak with a complete game shutout of the San Francisco Giants. His ERA was at a respectable 4.38, and it looked like he might be ready to take that step forward this year.

He would give up 8 runs in his next start which lasted all of 1.2 innings, and his ERA would remain in the fives for the rest of the season. He managed to stay in the rotation until the end of July before the Cubs were forced to make a change. None of those changes really worked out either, but it was change for the sake of change at that point. Gonzalez ended the season with 20 starts, 110 innings, a 5.32 ERA, but with a 4.60 FIP so he was slightly unlucky in his results.

Despite being just 23 years old in 1998, he would not pitch in the majors for the Cubs again, and due to injuries, it took him until 2003, with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, to reappear at the major league level. He put up an ERA under 4.00 while starting 25 games, but those were his last moments of glory as he struggled tremendously after that year with the Rays, followed by stints with the Red Sox, Mets, and Brewers. The Cubs only knew him as Jeremi, because he didn't tell anyone that the proper spelling of his name was Geremi until he was with the Brewers in 2006.

His life ended tragically in 2008 when he was struck by lightning on a beach in his home country of Venezuela. He was just 33 years old. Geremi Gonzalez didn't have a huge impact on the Cubs, but he was a big deal at the time. The Cubs simply didn't have real pitching prospects for the 12 years between Greg Maddux's and Kerry Wood's debut. The most exciting guys are probably Shawn Boskie, Kevin Foster, and Gonzalez. He was young, promising, and gave hope during a hopeless time. No, due to command issues, he wasn't great in 1998, but I will always think of him in a fonder way than any statistics could justify, and unjustified love is probably the best thing about sports.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie

#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams

#21 - Matt Mieske

#20 - Amaury Telemaco

#19 - Tyler Houston

Thursday, July 26, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #19 Tyler Houston

19. Tyler Houston
Tyler Houston is one of my guys. I was incredibly excited when the Cubs acquired him from the Braves for Ismael Villegas in 1996. A former second overall pick who was a catcher with big-time hitting potential was totally my jam as I love pedigree, and I didn't give a shit about defense. My faith was rewarded as he hit .339 once joining the team in 1996. In 1997, he fell off as his slugging percentage only managed to be three points higher than his batting average from the previous season.

Still, there were high hopes for 1998. The Cubs didn't have anything special at catcher with Scott Servais and Sandy Martinez so Houston was definitely going to get a chance at playing time. Unfortunately, he didn't totally take advantage as he hit .260/.290/.342 in 1998 while playing catcher, first, and third base while struggling with a hamstring injury. It wasn't all bad though as he definitely had some highlights during his 95 games that year.

To start the year, it looked like Houston may fulfill his power potential. In his first game of the season, he hit a three-run homer, but he wouldn't hit his second home run until six weeks later and would finish with just nine on the year. Still, July 3, everything came together for him as he hit two home runs off of Francisco Cordova who was weirdly one of the best pitchers in the major leagues that year. His greatest regular season highlight was likely the birth of his first child in May, but that one didn't affect me as much.

He even had a big postseason moment. He started game one against the Braves in the NLDS and took John Smoltz deep to give the Cubs a big home run. Unfortunately, that was the Cubs only offense, and they lost the game 7-1. He started two out of three of the playoff games and did get some playing time in all three.

Houston's numbers got slightly better in 1999 before being traded to Cleveland for a minor league pitcher that never came close to the major leagues. After that, he finally gave up catching when signing with the Milwaukee Brewers which helped him unlock his hitting potential where he put together a few very good seasons before a couple brief stints with the Dodgers and the Phillies.

Tyler Houston never quite lived up to that second overall pick pedigree, but he provided more good than bad when playing for the Cubs, added some flexibility by playing multiple positions, and provided hope that he would breakthrough at the plate. He had that breakthrough; it's just a shame it didn't happen for the Cubs.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #22 Terry Adams

22. Terry Adams
Relief pitchers, unless they are closers, are a fairly unexciting lot. They do their jobs, and you only notice them when they screw up. Terry Adams was easily the Cubs third best reliever in 1998 (although he ranks fourth on my list), but it's tough to find that much excitement in that, especially with how awful that bullpen performed that year.

Before we get to 1998, a little bit about Terry's past. He was a fourth round pick in 1991, and he had four unimpressive years in the minors before figuring it out in 1995 and dominating Double-A, continuing that in a short stint in Triple-A before making his Major League debut later that year. He continued the momentum in 1996 where he pitched over 100 innings out of the bullpen with a 2.94 ERA. This was good enough for him to be the closer in 1997. It did not work out as planned as his ERA rose to 4.62 that year.

In 1998, the Cubs brought in an established closer in Rod Beck but expected Adams to be the primary setup guy. The hope was that the lack of pressure would help elevate his numbers back to those 1996 levels. Early on, that plan seemed to be working. He cruised in his new role, with a 2.03 ERA on June 20th, he was one of the best setup men in the game.

A week later, it was over a run higher at 3.06. Just like nearly every one of the Cubs relievers that we have covered, the implosion was only beginning. His ERA went up and up and up to the highest it had been since the second game of the season at 4.33 on September 18. The Cubs had seen enough, and he would not play another game that season.

He stuck around one more year for the Cubs before they sent him to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Eric Young and Ismael Valdes. Adams became a starter and performed about as well as he did in relief but in far more innings. He then finished out his career in relief for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Adams is a tough guy to rate. He gave the Cubs two and a half months of excellent relief work, but he was so bad down the stretch that the Cubs were pitching Matt Karchner instead. Relief pitchers just aren't all that exciting although two did make it in the Top 10. Terry Adams is definitely rated too low, but that's the price of being effective instead of exciting.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson

#39 - Pedro Valdes

#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta

#24 - Kevin Orie

#23 - Sandy Martinez

Friday, October 27, 2017

Yasiel Puig Is the Best

Yasiel Puig is the best. Now he's not the best baseball player as he's not Mike Trout. He's not even the best baseball player in this series as that's Clayton Kershaw, and no, he's not even the best hitter in the series as that's Jose Altuve. But Yasiel Puig is so much more than that. He is simply the best.

Baseball is a game controlled by racist white guys. They have instilled in everyone that you need to put your head down and show no emotion as baseball is a tradition and meant to be taken seriously. Showing any personality is showing up your opponent, and for that, a pitcher has the right to attempt to murder you by throwing a 100 MPH baseball at your head. This is very dumb.

And since it is dumb, Puig shits on it every opportunity that he gets. This man gives zero fucks, and it is just so damn refreshing. It's weird, but he actually looks like he enjoys playing the game of baseball. In fact, the only thing that he seems to enjoy more is the taste of his bat, but again that may just be his love of baseball translating to every item of baseball. Of course, he doesn't seem to like baseballs as when a pitcher throws one nears him, he tries to smack it as far away as possible. Even in the field, he basically plays hot potato with it, as he catches it, and then throws a rocket back into the infield.

If Puig were a white guy, he'd be quirky; at worst, he'd be aloof. Instead, he has this incredible tale of working his ass off to get good at baseball, then getting out of Cuba to the United States. He literally came from nothing to live the American Dream. That shows way more grit than anything David Eckstein ever did. But Puig is not a white guy, and therefore he is lazy and makes a mockery of the game.

And those points aren't totally wrong. Puig is lazy sometimes, and according to the unwritten rules, he does make a mockery of the game. But shit, doesn't that make him like all of us? I'm lazy sometimes, and I have mocked every job I have ever had. It's human nature. Puig is like us. He's not perfect, but Puig Your Friend, and that is something to cheer for.
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Monday, March 27, 2017

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - NL West

Although baseball season is still a few weeks away, fantasy baseball season is here as draft rooms are opening and people are spending fake auction dollars on their favorite players. Everybody knows about the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world, so what you need to do stand out is find those hidden gems on each roster to propel yourself to fantasy greatness. I am going to go through each MLB roster to find at least one underrated player who will have you looking like a genius at the end of the season.

Today, we finally make it to the end of the series and look at the National League West where we promise there are teams outside of the Dodgers.

Arizona Diamondbacks - Robbie Ray
Let's just get this out of the way: Robbie Ray is my fantasy baseball wet dream. He struck out 218 hitters in 174 innings. I literally need no other stats to tell me that I want this guy on my team. I will openly admit my whorishness towards strikeouts for pitchers and home runs for hitters. This guy fills the former in abundance, and that is more than enough for me. Still, he had an ERA of nearly five. Shockingly, his walk rate really wasn't that bad. Instead, he struggled in every other aspect that leads to pitchers giving up runs. He gave up a good amount of home runs, had a .352 BABIP against him (worst in the league by 13 points), and stranded just 68,7 of runners that reached base. The home runs probably aren't changing, but he's basically equal with Max Scherzer, so it's not like he can't be successful while giving up some extra long balls. The big improvement will be the last two categories. It's nearly impossible for his BABIP not to improve, and the stranded runners are likely to improve as well. I'd be shocked if his ERA didn't drop by at least a full run. Robbie Ray is my jam.

Colorado Rockies - Jon Gray
Gray is basically a slightly less sexy Robbie Ray. Like, if I couldn't get my dream girl, this would be a nice one to settle for, and let's be real, she'd still be out of my league. This is getting weird, isn't it? Well, the strikeouts aren't as abundant but neither are the home runs. His big issue was letting runners who reached base score, and I think that can be improved upon this year. I rarely will draft a Colorado pitcher, but this guy is worth the risk.

Los Angeles Dodgers - Julio Urias
Urias may no longer have his prospect status, but his upside is still tremendous. He struggled early, got demoted, got promoted again, and really found his groove down the stretch. The only real question is how much workload can he handle this year, and considering the Dodgers are going to be in the hunt, I think he puts up 160-180 innings this year, and I also think he ends up as the Dodgers second best pitcher (behind Rich Hill, obviously). Don't forget the hype around Urias, because the talent is very real.

San Diego Padres - Travis Jankowski
Hey, the guy will get you steals. And since there are no offensive players on the Padres, he's guaranteed playing time. He could get you 60 stolen bases. I know his average was only .245 last year, but I think he could increase that by 30-40 points. He hit well in the minor leagues, and his minor league strikeout rate doubled once he reached the majors. I think he can figure out how to make more contact, and if he makes contact, his speed will guarantee that he turns that contact into hits.

San Francisco Giants - Matt Moore
After teasing us with talent but never having the health to match, Matt Moore finally put together a full season last year. Unfortunately, even though he finally had the health, the talent wasn't quite shining like it did during his younger days. So why am I buying into him? Well, partially because he's moving to a full year in the National League in a pitcher's park, so that's nice. But also that he may still be getting his groove back after finally getting some health. I've been betting on Matt Moore for six years, and I'll probably keep betting on him for six more. I mean, this could be the year.

Friday, February 25, 2011

The Most Overrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 2

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So I figured I'd shorten up my work and give you the ten prospects that I think are overrated and the ten that are underrated.  If you missed part one, check it out here.

For clarity, I will list their name, position, organization, and the highest ranking I have seen them in a Top 100 list.

5. Desmond Jennings - OF - Rays - Highest Ranking: 6th
I like Desmond Jennings, but the people who talk about him being able to fill Carl Crawford’s shoes this year are out of their mind. This is a guy who should not be at the major league level to start this year. He simply needs more seasoning in the minors. He really struggled at Triple-A last year, and he needs time to refine his game. Now he did put up very good numbers before last year, but it seems like everyone wants to just completely forget about last season which is his most relevant year. I definitely think his talent level is above what he showed last year, but he has to prove that he’s still got it before I can consider putting him in the Top-20.

4. Dee Gordon - SS - Dodgers - Highest Ranking: 32nd
Dee Gordon is Tom "Flash" Gordon's son. That gives him more awesome points than anybody else on this list. He's another toolsy guy who really hasn't produced. He's shown some progress, but he's going to be 23 in April, so he's simply too old to be considered a top prospect. The word you hear people use to describe him is raw. And raw means potential, but he's getting past the age where he'll have time to turn raw tools into real baseball skills. I think he could still be an average shortstop in the majors, but I don't think the star potential is there.

3. Hank Conger - C - Angels - Highest Ranking: 33rd
This one hurts. I love Hank Conger, and it is based solely on this video:

Words fail to describe how awesome that video is.  I truly wish him nothing but the best. Unfortunately, I do not see him being a very good major league player. He's a below average defensive catcher, and his bat isn't that great. He's got good control of the strike zone, but he doesn't have enough power for pitchers to want to pitch around him. He played in a hitter's park last year and still didn't set the world on fire. I don't believe in Hank Conger, but more than anyone else, I hope he proves me wrong.

2. Yonder Alonso - 1B - Reds - Highest Ranking: 15th
Alonso is another first baseman that I just don’t believe in. He’s never really dominated at any level since college, and people still keep giving him passes as to why he hasn’t dominated. He did make the improvement of going from awful to just bad against left-handers, so I guess that is supposed to wow me. I understand he was the 7th overall pick a couple years ago, but he has never slugged .500 in the minors, and he isn’t slick with the glove. He could have a few Lyle Overbay type years, but that sentence really doesn’t excite me…at all. He may be the least sexy prospect in the minors.

1. Andrew Brackman - RP - Yankees - Highest Ranking: 60th
It's not so much that he's completely overrated, because he didn't make some of the Top 100 lists, but the fact that most people refer to the Yankees as having the Three B's irritates the hell out of me. Manny Banuelos could be a stud, Betances can be if he stays healthy, and then there is Andrew Brackman. For the positives on Andrew Brackman, let me see, he's, um...tall. He'll be turning 26 this year. I'm 26. He has never thrown above Double-A; I have never thrown above Double-A. Yet for some reason, I am not considered a top prospect. I still see Brackman's ceiling as a middle reliever. He's been on prospect lists forever, but it's time to realize that he's no longer a guy to dream on; he is what he is, and it isn't that special.

-Joe

P.S.  I'll admit that I am easily amused and influenced, but this video is awesome, and I will be rooting for Jorge Rivera this weekend:

But Jorge Rivera is quite awful at ping pong.  I'm not sure if he ever had a legal shot in that video.  And if you need another reason to root for Rivera, apparently Bisping got all pissy, so here is Rivera's even more awesomer apology video:

Monday, April 19, 2010

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 50-41

I should be having an article about the big fight this weekend on Tuesday or Wednesday (And I'm not talking about that CBS crap). I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 50-41.

50 Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals – I think this ranking is based off the fact that all the other Cardinals prospects suck, so it makes this guy look better than he is. Everyone projected him in the middle of the first round, and that’s basically where he went. Now, he’s a power pitcher who’s going to set the world on fire. He’s got a very good fastball and his curveball could also be a plus pitch if he can gain consistency with it. His control needs some work, but he’s young so there is time for that to develop. Right now, he has the physical attributes to be a very good starter, but he really hasn’t shown it on a consistent basis, and right now he’s a lot of projection. I would not put him this high, but if he dominates for the River Bandits this year, we could see him moving up the list.

49 Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants – I can’t really argue with this ranking, because there isn’t much to go off of right now. He’s got a good body and a great fastball, while his secondary pitches need work. He was considered one of the top high school arms in the draft, and we’ll all figure it out together when he makes his full season debut at Low-A this year.

48 Chris Withrow, rhp, Dodgers – I think Withrow is overrated at this spot. He’s got a great arm, and he can strike guys out, but he walks too many hitters and simply gave up too many runs last year to be seen as a Top 50 prospect. His delivery is inconsistent, so that also means that his command and control can come and go. Great velocity is great, but I need to see more results before putting a guy up this high.

47 Casey Crosby, lhp, Tigers – This is probably the right range for Crosby. He is a big lefty with power stuff and he dominated Low-A coming off Tommy John surgery. His command got better as the year went on, so the biggest question with him is whether he will be able to develop a changeup to compliment his fastball/curve combination. The worst case scenario is him being a dominant reliever, so there’s a lot to like with Crosby. It should be interesting to see his progression as he goes up against more advanced hitters.

46 Dee Gordon, ss, Dodgers – This is probably about right for Dee Gordon. He’s got a lot going for him, he is Tom “Flash” Gordon’s son, he was co-MVP of the Midwest League (Although a strong case could have been made for Jon Edwards, who does not believe in nine inning games), and most importantly, he’s an extremely athletic shortstop who has oodles of potential. Despite being raw, he was able to produce in Low-A, so he should only get better from here. He needs to refine his approach and develop some more power, but at his age, there’s no reason to think that that isn’t possible. I still think Tom could strike him out.


45 Yonder Alonso, 1b, Reds – I’d put Alonso a lot lower. Some people were epically disappointed in him, but he was solid last year, just not great. He gets on base at a great clip, hit for a good average, and had solid power. The problem is that you’d want good-great power at first base which he may still have since he was battling a hand injury. But he simply can’t hit lefties. He didn’t hit them in college, and he didn’t hit them well in the minors either. When you’re a first baseman, you need to hit, and not being able to be effective against lefties is a pretty big knock, so I do not see him as a top 50 prospect.

44 Nick Hagadone, lhp, Indians – Hagadone is way too high at this ranking. Although he dominated Low-A coming off Tommy John surgery which is impressive, he’s not a young guy. He turns 24 this year, and he’ll need to move fast if he wants to have a big time impact. Many question his secondary offerings, so there’s a good chance he ends up as a reliever. There is a chance he could be a dominant closer, but a guy this old with no experience at the higher levels is a big question mark and I think he should be about 30 spots lower.

43 Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b, Reds – I think this is too high for Frazier, and I actually like him a lot, but apparently Baseball America wants him to bang their sister with how much they like him. He’s a good, not great player. He’s going to max out at average on defense, because he’s not a real toolsy guy. He has hit the ball well at every level, but he’s not a league leading type hitter. If he stays at second, I think he will be above average offensively and maybe a little below average defensively. That definitely has value, but I don’t see star potential, so I’d probably move him down a bit.

42 Tanner Scheppers, rhp, Rangers – I like Scheppers, but not this much. There’s just too many questions with him as he’s already had shoulder surgery and he’s 23 years old but has yet to make a pitch in the minor leagues. He’s got an electric arm, but it’s unrealistic to think he’s going to be able to be a starter. This is a relief prospect, and one that has an arm that could fall off (not literally) at any moment. I need to at least see some domination against real competition before considering putting a guy like that this high.

41 Jason Castro, c, Astros – Probably the third most overrated player on this entire list. Jason Castro is a good defensive catcher with a solid bat, and I don’t mean solid by all baseball standards, I mean solid for catching standards. He should have a decent average and he has good plate discipline, but there is limited power, and he’s not going to be a middle of the lineup guy. Although the defense is good, it’s not world class. Honestly, there’s nothing to get excited about, he’s a solid catching prospect, whoopty doo.

Yep, so apparently I hate BA's 50-41 guys.

-Joe

P.S. Enjoy this picture of Diddy getting after it.