The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #11 Steve Trachsel

11. Steve Trachsel
Earlier, I wrote about how Jose Hernandez embodied the 1998 season. Steve Trachsel more embodies mid-1990s Cubs. He was a guy who was good, but not quite good enough for the role that he was given. He had one really good year where he became an All-Star (1996), but there was no way that performance would ever last, and for Trachsel, it didn't. He wasn't known for his pitches, but for how long it took him to throw them as he earned the nickname of The Human Rain Delay.

1998 was his eighth with the organization and sixth straight in the majors. And even though it wasn't his best season, it was definitely the most memorable. When the season started, it looked as though Trachsel had rediscovered his 1996 magic. In his first ten starts, he never gave up more than three runs, and his ERA was a tidy 3.13. His first start of the season was the most special in that stretch as not only did he make it through seven innings, but he did it in the first home game without Harry Caray. Here is the seventh inning stretch, performed by Harry's widow, Dutchie.

I'm not crying; YOU'RE crying.

After the hot start, Steve Trachsel's true performance began to show up. He did not give up less than four runs in any of his next six starts. He was solid, and he did enough to give the Cubs more wins than losses in his starts. His lowlight would come on August 7th against the St. Louis Cardinals when he gave up seven runs while recording just a single out. It would not be his last memorable start against the Cubs' rival as he was also the man who gave up Mark McGwire's 62nd home run.

Good God, can we please bring back steroids?

Despite how memorable those moments were, what mattered the most from that season was one start at the end of September.

At the end of 162 games, both the Cubs and San Francisco Giants were tied for the Wildcard at 89-73. They would play a single game to decide who would move onto the playoffs at Wrigley Field on Monday, September 28. Yes, with their livelihood on the line, the Cubs turned to Trachsel, and his 4.60 ERA. Although on paper, the Giants choice of Marc Gardner wasn't much better, with him accumulating a 4.27 ERA, but Gardner had been red hot as the only time he gave up three runs in his last five starts was when he pitched a complete game against the Dodgers. He had gone at least seven innings in each of those starts; Trachsel had one quality start in that same time frame.

Through four innings, both managers looked smart for their choices. Gardner had given up just two singles and a walk while Trachsel had not given up a single hit but command was an issue as he had walked four and hit one batter with a pitch, including loading the bases in the fourth inning before striking out Brian Johnson to get out of the jam.

Somehow, Trachsel kept the zeros going in the fifth, despite yet another walk to the Giants. And in the bottom half, the Cubs finally broke through on Gardner thanks to a Gary Gaetti two-run homer. Trachsel had a 1-2-3 inning in the sixth before the Cubs added another two runs on a Matt Mieske pinch-hit single. Trachsel got one more out before allowing his first hit and another walk which was enough for Riggleman to take him out of the game and have the bullpen get out of the jam. Overall, he went 6.1 innings, gave up six walks, hit a batter, and gave up one hit, all without giving up a run. Somehow, despite all of those walks, Barry Bonds never reached base during the game. Although the Giants made a comeback in the ninth, it was too little, too late, as the Cubs held on 5-3 to advance to the playoffs.

And that would be the last game the Cubs would win that season as they got swept by the Braves before Trachsel could start Game Four. He would end his season at 15-8, with a 4.46 ERA in 208 innings.

He lost 18 times with a 5.58 ERA in 1999 and the Cubs let him go to the Rays in free agency. He was then traded to the Blue Jays before signing with the Mets in 2001. He put up three really strong years with ERAs of 3.37, 3.78, and 4.00 from 2002-2004. In 2007, he signed with the Orioles before they traded him to the Cubs at the waiver deadline, but he was awful for the Cubs, putting up an 8.31 ERA. He signed again with the Orioles for 2008, but the magic was gone, and he retired after eight starts and and 8.39 ERA.

No, Steve Trachsel wasn't the best pitcher on the Cubs that year, but there is nobody on the staff who had more memorable performances (good and bad) than him. 1998 was such a weird year that even The Human Rain Delay was exciting.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson
#39 - Pedro Valdes
#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston
#18 - Geremi Gonzalez
#17 - Orlando Merced
#16 - Scott Servais
#15 - Mark Clark
#14 - Lance Johnson
#13 - Brant Brown
#12 - Jose Hernandez

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #18 Geremi Gonzalez

18. Geremi Gonzalez
Geremi, or Jeremi, Gonzalez depending on who you ask was a hot young pitcher for the Cubs in the late 1990s. He made his debut in 1997 and won 11 games while posting a very respectable 4.25 ERA. Hopes were high going into 1998 as him repeating that performance would turn him into a reliable part of the rotation, and considering his youth, there was plenty of opportunity for improvement.

Things did not start well for Gonzalez. In his first start of the season, he faced seven batters, and all seven of them reached base, with four walks and three hits, including a home run from Gary Sheffield. The only good news is that Amaury Telemaco only let two of the three inherited runners score.

After that, Gonzalez turned things around as his ERA dropped in each of his next six starts. During that span, he struck out 10 Dodgers in seven innings and ended that streak with a complete game shutout of the San Francisco Giants. His ERA was at a respectable 4.38, and it looked like he might be ready to take that step forward this year.

He would give up 8 runs in his next start which lasted all of 1.2 innings, and his ERA would remain in the fives for the rest of the season. He managed to stay in the rotation until the end of July before the Cubs were forced to make a change. None of those changes really worked out either, but it was change for the sake of change at that point. Gonzalez ended the season with 20 starts, 110 innings, a 5.32 ERA, but with a 4.60 FIP so he was slightly unlucky in his results.

Despite being just 23 years old in 1998, he would not pitch in the majors for the Cubs again, and due to injuries, it took him until 2003, with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, to reappear at the major league level. He put up an ERA under 4.00 while starting 25 games, but those were his last moments of glory as he struggled tremendously after that year with the Rays, followed by stints with the Red Sox, Mets, and Brewers. The Cubs only knew him as Jeremi, because he didn't tell anyone that the proper spelling of his name was Geremi until he was with the Brewers in 2006.

His life ended tragically in 2008 when he was struck by lightning on a beach in his home country of Venezuela. He was just 33 years old. Geremi Gonzalez didn't have a huge impact on the Cubs, but he was a big deal at the time. The Cubs simply didn't have real pitching prospects for the 12 years between Greg Maddux's and Kerry Wood's debut. The most exciting guys are probably Shawn Boskie, Kevin Foster, and Gonzalez. He was young, promising, and gave hope during a hopeless time. No, due to command issues, he wasn't great in 1998, but I will always think of him in a fonder way than any statistics could justify, and unjustified love is probably the best thing about sports.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson
#39 - Pedro Valdes
#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn
#36 - Terrell Lowery
#35 - Don Wengert
#34 - Kurt Miller
#33 - Jason Maxwell
#32 - Kevin Foster
#31 - Mike Morgan
#30 - Felix Heredia 
#29 - Jeff Blauser
#28 - Jason Hardtke
#27 - Dave Stevens
#26 - Manny Alexander
#25 - Marc Pisciotta
#24 - Kevin Orie
#23 - Sandy Martinez
#22 - Terry Adams
#21 - Matt Mieske
#20 - Amaury Telemaco
#19 - Tyler Houston

The 47 Best Players from the 1998 Chicago Cubs - #36 Terrell Lowery

36. Terrell Lowery
Terrell Lowery may be the greatest athlete on this entire list. He played D-1 college basketball for Loyola Marymount which may not sound impressive at first glance. But this isn't the Loyola you know today. It was the Loyola that was led by Paul Westhead to have the most explosive offense in the nation. In fact, Lowery averaged 28.5 and 26.0 points per game in his final two seasons for the team. That is so many points that I checked, re-checked, and then triple checked that this guy decided to play baseball instead of sticking with basketball.

But, sure enough, he became a pro baseball player as he was drafted in the second round by the Texas Rangers. He bounced around to the Mets before the Cubs selected him in the Rule 5 draft in 1996. He got his first major league experience in 1997 with limited action with the Cubs after tearing up AAA with the Iowa Cubs.

In 1998, he again tore up AAA, but it was tough to break through in the outfield for a Cubs team that was absolutely loaded out there. He played in 24 games but mostly as a defensive replacement as he only had 15 at bats during that time. In the two games that Lowery started, the Cubs were undefeated, taking out the Braves and White Sox in his starts. In games where Lowery got a hit, they were 3-0. In fact, he received at bats in nine games, and the Cubs went 8-1 in those games. Just Lowery playing was enough to put them at 17-7. He was the good luck charm.

Unfortunately, the Cubs weren't aware of good luck charm analytics back then, and he was sent back down after their game on July 4th (Cubs won, of course). He would become a free agent and join the expansion Tampa Bay Devil Rays for their second year of existence. In 2000, he joined the San Francisco Giants, where he had a slash line of .441/.548/.647 for an 1.195 OPS which would have led the major leagues had he qualified.

And after that performance, he never saw another major league at bat. Lowery had a short but fascinating career, and the good luck he brought to the Cubs will never be forgotten.

In case you missed it:
Introduction
#47 - Matt Karchner
#46 - Jose Nieves
#45 - Rodney Myers
#44 - Justin Speier
#43 - Tony Fossas
#42 - Kennie Steenstra
#41 - Chris Haney
#40 - Bob Patterson
#39 - Pedro Valdes
#38 - Derrick White
#37 - Ben Van Ryn

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - AL East

Although baseball season is still a few weeks away, fantasy baseball season is here as draft rooms are opening and people are spending fake auction dollars on their favorite players. Everybody knows about the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world, so what you need to do stand out is find those hidden gems on each roster to propel yourself to fantasy greatness. I am going to go through each MLB roster to find at least one underrated player who will have you looking like a genius at the end of the season.

Today, after going with the less sexy divisions in the American League, we go with the most talked about division in all the land, the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles - Dylan Bundy
I've been all-in on Dylan Bundy since he was drafted in 2012, so the fact that I can still buy low on him excites me. He's probably not going to be the game changing pitcher I expected when he was blowing through every minor leaguer that stood in front of him. Due to injuries, he's a different pitcher, but he's still shown that he could be a very good pitcher. Even though he struggled more as a starter in the second half, he was still striking out over a batter an inning, and he's still building up his strength after coming back from injuries. Right now, he's a ranked as a late round flyer, but I think he can produce a mid 3 ERA with a strikeout per inning which wouldn't be a bad haul for a final round pick.

Boston Red Sox - Eduardo Rodriguez
It's damn near impossible to find an underrated Red Sox player. I mean, even Pablo Sandoval made the top 300. Hanley Ramirez ranked 69 which is nice. Maybe I could take a flyer on their top prospect, Andrew Benitendi, but he's already ranked ahead one of the greatest hitters ever, Albert Pujols, so yeah, I can't really say he's underrated. Let's go with Rodriguez who struggled at the beginning of the year but basically pitched like a number two starter in the second half of the season. I doubt he'll be quite that good, but if he gets anything close to that, then he'll be worth it.

New York Yankees - Gary Sanchez
I know this isn't a deep sleeper or anything, but it was the only way I could avoid recommending Chris Carter (I always recommend Chris Carter). I know he's ranked as the second best catcher, but he was only at 113 overall, and that seems at least 30 spots too low. I don't think he's Catcher Babe Ruth, but he's still damn good, and considering the lack of options at catcher, he's worth going above his ranking to go out and secure his services for the year.

Tampa Bay Rays - Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi's only real issue last year was health, and before that, he had proved to be rather durable. The split may put some extra strain on his arm, but considering the strong track record, he's a pitcher I'd like to have this year. Computer projections continue to love the Rays, so eventually they're going to have to be right...right?

Toronto Blue Jays - Troy Tulowitzki
Making a case with my head for Tulowitzki isn't the easiest. He has been a disappointment since getting traded from Colorado to Toronto. Still, he wasn't too bad last year as he hit 24 home runs, and had he had a better BABIP, he could have easily raised his batting average 20 points. That's what I see happening this year as a little better luck gets him closer to his former glory although not quite all the way there. Is this my head talking? No, but the heart wants what the heart wants. 

Dave Dombrowski Is a Gentle Lover

When I heard the Tigers were pursuing David Price, I chuckled to myself. The Tigers have traded away so many prospects that I'm not even sure if they field minor league teams anymore. There was no way they had the assets to get David Price. But then, sure enough, Dave Dombrowski found a way to turn Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly into David Price. How did he do this? It's because he's a gentle lover. Let me explain.

I think it's common knowledge that Dave Dombrowski is a master of seduction. If you somehow didn't know that, this photo, which has not been poorly photoshopped AT ALL, proves my point:

Since he is a master of seduction, he can pretty much seduce any woman he pleases. I'll admit it; I was nervous going to a Tigers Spring Training game a few months ago at the mere chance that DD might take a liking to my lady.

Basically, what his seduction prowess means is that he can seduce any owner's wife/girlfriend/main squeeze. Now, these owners are all super rich, cutthroat men who have done whatever it takes to get to the top. These are very prideful men, and also men who know what they like and hate change. The problem is that not only can Dave Dombrowski seduce their lady, but also that DD is a gentle lover.

This causes an issue as most owners sexual techniques start and end with vigorous. They aren't into any fluff; they are incredibly hard workers, but they only know one speed. Meanwhile, DD has listened to enough Tenacious D where he doesn't give sex to a woman, he makes love with her. Once these women experience the gentle love making of DD, they no longer want the vigorous sex that they experience from an old crusty baseball owner, and it ruins the lives of these owners.

So that is why Dave Dombrowski is consistently able to do the impossible when it comes to trades. Dave Dombrowski agreed to a four-year no seduction deal at the end of 2007 to acquire Miguel Cabrera from Jeffrey Loria and the Marlins. When that deal ran out, he gave another extension to get Anibal Sanchez in 2012. In between those two deals, he called up Ken Kendrick, who forced Josh Byrnes to trade away Max Scherzer in order to keep his beau away from Dombrowski's charms.

And finally, he called up Stuart Sternberg. Sternberg is a young, Wall Street hotshot, so he laughed at Dombrowski at first. He causally mentioned it as a joke with Andrew Friedman, but Friedman wasn't laughing. He knew of Dombrowski's skills, and therefore, he knew what he had to do. David Price is a Tiger, but Sternberg and his wife are safe from the charms of DD.

Don't blame these teams for their lack of return on top end talent. When you get that call from the 313 area code, you know your options have run out. If Dombrowski doesn't get his man, he's coming for your woman, and I'm glad these teams have made the right choice.

The Most Underrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 2

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So now it is time for the underrated prospects.  Today, I will wrap up everything and focus on players that I see jumping into next year's Top 100 or making an impact at the major league level.  The first underrated part can be found here.  If you missed the overrated, you can check it out here and here.


Phillippe Aumont - SP/RP - Phillies
I thought he was possibly the most impressive arm in the Midwest League when I saw him a couple years ago.  This could mean that he has regressed and has a chance to bounce back, or it could mean that my baseball scouting abilities are pathetically underdeveloped.  Neither would surprise me, and it could honestly be a little of both.  Either way, I just have a strong feeling that this is the era of the French Canadians.  Not since the Rougeau Brothers has there been this sort of dominance from French Canadian athletes.

I mean, there's Georges St. Pierre, and...well, that might be it, but that still makes it a great time for French Canadians, hence expect a bounceback year from Aumont as he takes a huge step forward and is seen as a top relief prospect.

Robinson Chirinos - C - Rays
I know that I am breaking a rule of mine in that I should never bet on a prospect who is as old as I am, but I'm a spry 26, and I feel the same is true for Chirinos.  Also, isn't it always a good idea to bet that the Cubs gave away promising talent in a trade?  I think so, and that is why I am willing to bet on Chirinos.  He may be old, but he crushed the ball in Triple-A last year with a .318/.412/.580 line.  And it's not like he was hitting in a band box, he did it Des Moines, IA, not a place known for it's thin air.  Do I think he'll be able to hit like that in the majors?  No chance, but I do think he's good enough to provide good offense for a catcher, and I'll be surprised if he doesn't see serious time at catcher with the Rays this year. 


Jason Knapp - SP - Indians
Jason Knapp does my favorite thing very well, and that's strike people out.  During his three years in the minors, he has 208 strikeouts in 156 innings pitched.  Is that pimpin?  That's so pimpin.  So why doesn't this guy get more love from the experts?  Well, he pitched under 30 innings last year after spending most of his time rehabbing from shoulder surgery.  Shoulder surgery is about the worst thing for a pitcher, because although Tommy John Surgery is serious, almost everybody comes back to at least 80% of what they once were.  With shoulder surgery, there's many guys who aren't half as good as they once were.  But I'm not a doctor, so I don't worry about trivial things like his arm could fall off with his next pitch.  Injuries happen all the time, so enjoy the fun while you can.  Maybe Knapp does get hurt again, but if he doesn't, he's got the stuff to be a great pitcher in the majors.

Max Stassi - C - Athletics
There's no hiding it, his offense wasn't very good in Low-A last year.  A line of .229/.310/.380 is never going to get you laid.  But I also wouldn't count a guy like this out.  He was seen as a first round talent by a lot of people going into the draft, but dropped to the fourth, because people worried about his bonus demands.  I see him getting much better on offense, but even saying that, I never expect him to be a top offensive catcher.  But the defense, oh the defense.  Reviews of his defense are somewhere between sensational and heavenly.  If he can hit like an average catcher, he'll be an asset.  I think he can still develop into an above average hitter.  The biggest concern are strikeouts, but he showed enough power in a tough offensive environment for me to believe there's more on the way.  And worst case scenario is he keeps striking out and offers little offensive value.  Mike Scioscia would still kill his own grandmother to start a catcher like that 140 times.

Ryan Westmoreland - OF - Red Sox
This is a guy to root for after having brain surgery last year. He’s no longer on any prospect lists, but I think he’ll make a full recovery to his top prospect level. Plus, anyone who has ever had to interact with baseball players realizes that a majority of them are at least mildly retarded. Hence, even if they scrambled some things during his brain surgery, he should still maintain his ability to play baseball at a high level.  In all seriousness, you root for a full recovery for anyone who has to go through something like that.  And it would be nice if a small market team like the Red Sox can get a top prospect back.

And so wraps up my baseball prospect breakdown for this year.  Am I a genius?  Am I a moron?  Only time will tell.

-Joe

P.S.  In "Derrick Rose Is Awesome" news, there's this:

The Most Overrated Prospects In Baseball: Part 2

Through my first year on the blog, what was the one thing that got overwhelmingly negative feedback?  Prospect analysis.  That's why I'm bringing it back this year bitches.  Luckily for the haters, undertaking an endeavor as large as analyzing all 100 of Baseball America's top prospects proved to be way too much work for a repeat performance.  So I figured I'd shorten up my work and give you the ten prospects that I think are overrated and the ten that are underrated.  If you missed part one, check it out here.

For clarity, I will list their name, position, organization, and the highest ranking I have seen them in a Top 100 list.

5. Desmond Jennings - OF - Rays - Highest Ranking: 6th
I like Desmond Jennings, but the people who talk about him being able to fill Carl Crawford’s shoes this year are out of their mind. This is a guy who should not be at the major league level to start this year. He simply needs more seasoning in the minors. He really struggled at Triple-A last year, and he needs time to refine his game. Now he did put up very good numbers before last year, but it seems like everyone wants to just completely forget about last season which is his most relevant year. I definitely think his talent level is above what he showed last year, but he has to prove that he’s still got it before I can consider putting him in the Top-20.

4. Dee Gordon - SS - Dodgers - Highest Ranking: 32nd
Dee Gordon is Tom "Flash" Gordon's son. That gives him more awesome points than anybody else on this list. He's another toolsy guy who really hasn't produced. He's shown some progress, but he's going to be 23 in April, so he's simply too old to be considered a top prospect. The word you hear people use to describe him is raw. And raw means potential, but he's getting past the age where he'll have time to turn raw tools into real baseball skills. I think he could still be an average shortstop in the majors, but I don't think the star potential is there.

3. Hank Conger - C - Angels - Highest Ranking: 33rd
This one hurts. I love Hank Conger, and it is based solely on this video:

Words fail to describe how awesome that video is.  I truly wish him nothing but the best. Unfortunately, I do not see him being a very good major league player. He's a below average defensive catcher, and his bat isn't that great. He's got good control of the strike zone, but he doesn't have enough power for pitchers to want to pitch around him. He played in a hitter's park last year and still didn't set the world on fire. I don't believe in Hank Conger, but more than anyone else, I hope he proves me wrong.

2. Yonder Alonso - 1B - Reds - Highest Ranking: 15th
Alonso is another first baseman that I just don’t believe in. He’s never really dominated at any level since college, and people still keep giving him passes as to why he hasn’t dominated. He did make the improvement of going from awful to just bad against left-handers, so I guess that is supposed to wow me. I understand he was the 7th overall pick a couple years ago, but he has never slugged .500 in the minors, and he isn’t slick with the glove. He could have a few Lyle Overbay type years, but that sentence really doesn’t excite me…at all. He may be the least sexy prospect in the minors.

1. Andrew Brackman - RP - Yankees - Highest Ranking: 60th
It's not so much that he's completely overrated, because he didn't make some of the Top 100 lists, but the fact that most people refer to the Yankees as having the Three B's irritates the hell out of me. Manny Banuelos could be a stud, Betances can be if he stays healthy, and then there is Andrew Brackman. For the positives on Andrew Brackman, let me see, he's, um...tall. He'll be turning 26 this year. I'm 26. He has never thrown above Double-A; I have never thrown above Double-A. Yet for some reason, I am not considered a top prospect. I still see Brackman's ceiling as a middle reliever. He's been on prospect lists forever, but it's time to realize that he's no longer a guy to dream on; he is what he is, and it isn't that special.

-Joe

P.S.  I'll admit that I am easily amused and influenced, but this video is awesome, and I will be rooting for Jorge Rivera this weekend:

But Jorge Rivera is quite awful at ping pong.  I'm not sure if he ever had a legal shot in that video.  And if you need another reason to root for Rivera, apparently Bisping got all pissy, so here is Rivera's even more awesomer apology video:

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 10-1

And we are finally to the end. Semi-normal people may be interested in reading the top 10 since you have probably heard of a lot of these guys at least. This is the end of these, so I'll be back to pop culture and sports people care about now that this is finally over.

10 Carlos Santana, c, Indians – I would put Santana a few spots higher as a catcher with his kind of bat is extremely rare. Since there are chances Montero is not a catcher in the long run, Santana could arguably be the best catching prospect in the minors. The guy can hit for power as well as having excellent strike zone judgment. He rarely swings at a bad pitch. The only knock that people really have against him are that his game management skills need work, but everyone agrees that the tools to be a solid catcher are all there. He should be up sometime this season and will be a very valuable asset to the Indians’ organization. Also, even though Casey Blake is from Iowa, I do think the Indians won the trade that sent him to the Dodgers.

09 Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers – I think this is the area that Feliz should be in, perhaps a bit lower. He was very dominant in the majors last year out of the bullpen, but to be this high, you need to be a starter, and him not being able to strike out a batter per inning while having a 3.49 ERA at Triple A makes me think that he’s a very good prospect, but possibly not a great one. The scouting reports say great fastball where his slider flashes plus, but is inconsistent and his changeup is average. I would love to have a guy like this, but there’s some other guys that I would love to have more.

08 Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Pirates – Yeah, this is probably about right for Alvarez. The guy is a monster hitter who crushed it when moved up to Double-A last year. His biggest issue is that he’s not real athletic, and a move to first base is likely, although he may be able to play a few years at third. The great thing about Alvarez is that he was considered a complete bust in May of last year, because he was struggling in High-A, and people were already writing him off. He is a great example to not look too much into small sample sizes when evaluating prospects. This guy is an All-Star hitter in the making.

07 Buster Posey, c, Giants – Posey is definitely a top 10 prospect. He is a catcher who is still a little raw defensively since he just started catching a few years ago. But the guy can flat out hit the ball. He went from High-A to Triple-A without missing a beat. He had a brief debut in the majors last year, but I will make the bold prediction that he will surpass his line of .118/.118/.118 from last year. He has all the potential to be a consistent All-Star at the catcher position for years to come, and he’ll probably put Molina’s fat ass on the bench by the middle of the season.

06 Desmond Jennings, of, Rays – I think Desmond Jennings is going to be a great professional baseball player, but I still don’t love ranking him this high. He seems like a guy who will have a good average, plate discipline, play a good center field, but without great power. As good as that all sounds, I see him more in the 10-15 range than #6 overall. If the justification is that he is so likely to be what I described, then yes, that is a good thing, but I like some other guys’ potential more than Jennings. But let me reiterate, I still think this guy is going to be a hell of a pro player.

05 Brian Matusz, lhp, Orioles – I might put Matusz a few spots lower, but he’s still definitely a top 10 prospect. He has four quality pitches that he can throw for strikes, and he has excellent command so he is able to set up hitters. He struck out more batters than innings pitched last year which is a good sign, and even in the majors, he came close to striking out a batter per inning (38 K in 44 IP). There’s no big time knock against the guy, but he doesn’t have outstanding stuff, so I have trouble putting a guy in the Top 5 if he can’t blow hitters away with dominant pitches.

04 Jesus Montero, c, Yankees – A fantastic hitter who will probably not stay at catcher, but everybody loves his bat enough where it shouldn’t matter too much. He is definitely a Top 10 guy, but I’m not sure if he’s Top 5 because of the position that he’ll likely play. But usually Yankees prospects are highly overrated, so this is a step in the right direction as this is at least reasonable.

03 Mike Stanton, of, Marlins – I think they nailed the number three guy as Stanton is legit, some would even say 2 Legit 2 Quit. He was a teenager who dominated High-A, and held his own at Double-A. He finally had to face more advanced pitching, and he struggled with average, but the power still made him a positive contributor to the team. At 6’5”, 240 lbs, he’s slightly larger than I am, but he’s able to play an outfield corner solidly. His bat is his ticket though, and although his biggest concern is his adjustment to breaking balls, at his age, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t improve and become an All-Star caliber player.

02 Stephen Strasburg, rhp, Nationals – I totally agree with this ranking as the best pitcher is not quite as valuable as the best hitter due to injury concerns that you will have with all pitchers. Basically, Strasburg is a pitcher that you would create on a video game. Make him throw over 100 MPH, give him a slider that drops like it just hit something in mid-air, plus give him excellent command and control. This is definitely a special player. Best case scenario is Brendan Fraiser in The Scout, worst case scenario is, ugh, Mark Prior.

01 Jason Heyward, of, Braves – I completely agree with this ranking. Really, I can’t offer much that hasn’t been said about this guy. He’s a stud, he’ll start the season off in the Braves starting lineup. He’s a five-tool player who just excels at every part of the game. Last year, he stayed with the big league team for most of spring training despite the Braves knowing he would start the season at High-A, because Bobby Cox enjoyed watching him play so much. This is the well-deserved number one prospect in all of baseball.

And they're done.

-Joe

P.S. Suck on this Iowa State fans:

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 20-11

I'm almost done posting all of these, so that's exciting. Nick Devlin and anybody with a lot of free time, enjoy.

20 Logan Morrison, 1b, Marlins – Sorry JVD, but this is a little high for the LoMo. He’s a first base prospect without that much power. That’s not exactly a recipe for success. This guy will definitely be a major league ballplayer, but his ceiling doesn’t seem high enough to put him in the Top 20. His ceiling is a non-gold glove version of John Olerud. He can hit for average, he’ll definitely get on base, and you’ll still yearn for Ryan Howard. Another thing that I feel bad about for LoMo is that his Twitter account is @LoMoMarlins. He does know he’s going to have to change that once he reaches arbitration, right?

19 Aaron Hicks, of, Twins – I’m thinking this guy should probably be about 20 spots lower. Hicks oozes potential and could be a five-tool monster in center field, but a lot of those tools haven’t shown up on a baseball field yet. He showed great plate discipline, but his average was barely .250, and he didn’t manage to slug .400. He has the potential to blow up, but until he actually proves something in the minor leagues, I would be cautious on some of his projections.

18 Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays – He’s from Iowa, so obviously, I think he’s fantastic. But he’s also got the numbers and scouting reports to back it up, so he is deserving of this ranking, and I could even put him a few spots higher. He has gotten Greg Maddux comparisons, which is pretty much impossible to live up to, but he has three plus-pitches, and maybe the best command in minor league baseball. After thinking these last thirty seconds, I’d probably put him in my Top 10.

17 Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers – I would probably put this guy in the Top 10, and near the top 5 as he dominated Low-A, and was promoted to Double-A as an 18 year old. The only complaint about him is that he isn’t the ideal size of a pitcher, but he has three plus pitches already and he’s shown domination in his short minor league career. The guy is so good that he could get a September callup to the big leagues. Who gives a shit about size when a guy is this good? Consider me on the Martin Perez bandwagon.

16 Starlin Castro, ss, Cubs – No. No. No. This is the second most overrated player on the list (the first is coming soon). Yes, I know he was able to hit for a very good average at both High-A and Double-A as a 19 year-old. I cannot take that away. That is impressive. All the while, he showed up as a plus defender at shortstop. That is very good too. But where’s the potential? He doesn’t draw many walks, and he doesn’t have much power, nor does he project to add much power. So here’s his best-case scenario, a rather empty .300 hitter with solid defense. Without a doubt, that’s an asset, but that isn’t the 16th best prospect in baseball, especially when that’s his BEST case scenario. Sorry Cubs fans, you’ve still got a long ways to go.

15 Domonic Brown, of, Phillies – Fair ranking for Brown. The guy has all the tools to be great, and he did very well at High-A and Double-A last year. He could be near a .300 hitter and slug over .500. Some question his power potential, but he was able to slug over .500 at both levels last year, so the potential of him being a 30 home run guy is still there. He’s a very good athlete, and I think the Phillies have every intention of him taking Jayson Werth’s spot in 2011.

14 Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants – I think Bumgarner is the second best pitching prospect in baseball, and he could make me look very smart or very stupid for saying that. When he’s on, he’s electric with a great fastball and breaking ball with an average change. He absolutely dominated everything in sight in his minor league career. The big concern is that his velocity was only in the high 80s for the second half of the season. He still dominated, and did well when he came to the majors for a brief stint. If he’s that good without velocity, imagine how badass he’ll be when he gets it back. That is why I would still put him in the Top 5 of all prospects in baseball.

13 Justin Smoak, 1b, Rangers – Smoak looks like he’s placed about right, maybe a little high. His numbers haven’t been great outside of his time with Team USA. He dominated Double-A, but a lof of that was plate discipline as opposed to raw power as he failed to slug .500. I don’t think he is a serious threat to Chris Davis in spring training this year, and I could see him not getting called up until September. There is very little doubt that this guy will fail to succeed in the majors, but I have trouble seeing superstar potential in him.

12 Alcides Escobar, ss, Brewers – The most OVERRATED prospect in all of baseball. He hits for average, is fast, and plays good defense. That’s it. That’s all you need to be the 12th best prospect in baseball. He doesn’t have great plate discipline, he’s got very little power, and he’s had troubles with right handers. He is around this area on just about everybody’s list, and I simply don’t get it. At #12, you need to be a world beater, and this guy is not. He should probably be about 50 spots lower.

11 Dustin Ackley, of/1b/2b, Mariners – I really can’t find much fault in Ackley, and this seems like a fair ranking for him. Although he is trying second base right now, the worst case scenario is that he’s a weak-armed center fielder. He can hit for average and also has great plate discipline. He hit 22 homers as a junior at North Carolina, so he seems to be the total package. Even if the power doesn’t totally translate, he’ll be a good center fielder or an All-Star second baseman.

-Joe

P.S. Here are my picks for all the fights this weekend: Askren, Hornbuckle, Soto, Lindland, Woodley, and Tim Sylvia over Mariusz Pudzianowski.

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 40-31

I'll be honest, I'm too lazy to write anything after three nights in Vegas, so I should probably post these damn prospect reviews eventually. Today, I'll finally post 40-31.

40 Aaron Crow, rhp, Royals – I like Crow a little bit more than this ranking as the guy was an absolute stud in college, and has top of the rotation potential. The big questions surrounding Crow are the fact that he basically took a year off after not coming to terms on a contract with the Nationals and he hasn’t shown much in his changeup. I think both could be solved this year as I think he will regain his dominant slider after his year off, and I think he can at least develop a serviceable changeup. There’s not much of a track record to go off of, but I’m anxiously awaiting his 2010 debut.

39 Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals – This seems like a pretty reasonable spot for Montgomery, although I might go a little lower. He was very good at both A-levels last year, where he showed a good fastball and flashed good secondary pitches. I still feel that his ceiling is only that of a #2 starter, and with so much work still to do, I think there are other prospects ranked lower that I am much more excited about. He’s a good prospect, but I don’t think he’s a great prospect.

38 Derek Norris, c, Nationals – I would put Norris higher than this as the guy can flat out hit with an OBP over .400 and slugging over .500 at Low-A last year. If he can do anything close to that when he moves up the ladder, he’ll be a huge asset at catcher for the Nationals. The big problem is he’s new to catching and he’s bad in just about every area of catching. Due to his defensive problems, he’ll probably be taken one level at a time, but nobody’s talking about a necessary position change for him, so he should be a very good hitting catcher, just not for a few years.

37 Josh Bell, 3b, Orioles – I think this is just about right as a ranking for Bell. He has really gotten better and better each year as his tools have turned into real baseball skills. The biggest strides he made were defensively where he now looks like he can stay at third base as opposed to moving to first. He absolutely crushed the ball after his trade to Baltimore last year, and if he can keep that up, he should take over the third base job sometime this year. Although he’s not Longoria, Wright, or Zimmerman, he is a very good third base prospect that will be an asset in the majors.

36 Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks – This is too high for Parker. He should probably be 20-30 spots lower. Last year he did very well at Double-A, showcasing a great fastball and slider as well as an average changeup. But he wasn’t completely dominant, and he had Tommy John surgery in October meaning he’ll miss all of the 2010 season. If he was great at Double-A, I could understand this, but he was only very good, so I think he should be knocked down quite a bit. Also, the crazy thing is that on the prospects for the 2011 season, he will be much lower because of the fact that he didn’t pitch at all in 2010. I don’t know why they wouldn’t just mark him down now, and keep him in the general area for the next season.

35 Matt Moore, lhp, Rays – This is a guy that I feel is ranked pretty accurately. He struck out 176 batters in 123 innings in Low-A last year which is the definition of domination. The big problem is he also walked 70 guys which is bad news for him. Another bad sign is a soft body and a delivery that takes a lot of effort. Still, that many strikeouts is a great sign for somebody’s future, and he has plenty of time to harness his stuff before he makes it to the majors.

34 Wade Davis, rhp, Rays – Wade Davis is pretty damn good, and although I have loved this guy for years, I think this is a pretty fair spot for him. He’s got a great fastball and curveball combination, but his changeup is below average. Because of that, people aren’t sure if he’ll be able to stay as a starter, or if he’ll have to change to a dominant reliever. He was solid late in the season for the Rays, but with the depth the Rays have with starters, I think he most likely will have to settle for being a dominant reliever. Still, that’s a nice thing to have around.

33 Christian Friedrich, lhp, Rockies – I’d probably make Friedrich top 20, because he owned everybody last year at two levels of A-Ball. He’s a guy with a big fastball and a monster curve, and a changeup that is average. If he can gain a little more consistency with his command and stay healthy, the sky is the limit for him. The Rockies have made a commitment to making their pitching and defense better, and it’s not inconceivable that in a few years they will be more known for preventing runs than scoring runs.

32 Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves – This is way too high for Freddie Freeman. I think the guy’s potential peaks at John Olerud who was a really good player, but that’s if everything goes right for him. I don’t see him developing that much power, so he’ll be dependent on average and drawing walks. At first base, that’s not enough to be considered the number 32 prospect in baseball.

31 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians – I think this might be a little high for Chisenhall as the stats don’t quite match up to some of the favorable scouting reports that he’s received. He hit very well at High-A, but imploded when he was promoted to Double-A. I can understand that it may have been a small sample size (24 games), but great hitters don’t hit under .200 at any level for any real length of time. This guy could definitely be up this high or higher next year, but I don’t think he’s proven himself enough to warrant his current ranking.

And so goes another blogpost that nobody is going to read. Have a great Monday.

-Joe

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 60-51

I know these aren't the most fun-filled writings, but this is my vanity project, so read at your own peril. I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 60-51.

60 Tyler Flowers, c, White Sox – I think this guy could be about ten spots higher on the list. He absolutely crushed the ball at Double-A for the majority of the season, and he was solid when he got up to Triple-A. The biggest question marks surrounding his game was his ability to stay behind the plate, and he made strides defensively where he appears that he will at least be able to be average on defense. He’s got great plate discipline and can slug over .500, so I’d expect him to get some time in the majors this year before taking over the full-time catching duties in 2011.

59 Brett Lawrie, 2b, Brewers – I really like Lawrie, and in a very strange way, I feel like I may overrate Canadian prospects. Something about them makes me think they’ll be awesome. He’s god-awful on defense at second, so there’s a good chance he’ll have to move to left field. He hit very well for a teenager in the Midwest League last year, so the bat should be good enough to play out there. If he does have to move out to left, his bat will still need to progress, but he’s young, and most people believe that he is going to get better. Since he’s from Canada, I assume he spent a lot of his time working towards a career in professional wrestling, so he may have only played 15-20 games of baseball before being drafted. You know what I always say, if you can hit a moonsault, you can hit a curveball.


58 Wilson Ramos, c, Twins – I like this rating for Ramos. He struggled with injuries last year, but hit over .300 when healthy at Double-A, and also slugged .454. He plays good defense at catcher so he will definitely be a valuable asset in the major leagues. I could definitely see him getting a late call-up this year. As for the future, I can’t really think of anybody the Twins have that might halt his ascension to the major leagues but maybe I’m forgetting someone.


57 Simon Castro, rhp, Padres – I’d probably put Castro a little lower than this. He did dominate at Low-A last year, but he relied heavily on his fastball. Although it is a dominant pitch, he’ll need to learn more if he wants to succeed at higher levels. His slider shows promise, and his changeup is just a show-me pitch right now that he rarely used. He’ll have to progress his secondary stuff if he wants to stay a starter, otherwise, I only see him being a setup type reliever.

56 Jennry Mejia, rhp, Mets – I like Mejia a lot as I really think he could be a huge factor in the big leagues if handled properly. The Mets don’t usually do that, so he’ll probably end up a shredded arm and a what if scenario. If that doesn’t happen though, he’s got a huge fastball, and his changeup has shown potential. His breaking ball needs work, but he did well at Double-A last year as a teenager, so there’s a ton of potential with this guy. Consistency is going to be a big key, but that’s the case with most players his age, and he has the ability to take a huge step forward this year.

55 Jared Mitchell, of, White Sox – This seems like a pretty fair spot for Mitchell. The guy has tools coming out of his ass, but he is still raw as this past year was the first year that he focused solely on baseball. There’s some holes in his swing right now, but with how raw he is, there is a chance he can help himself in that area. He didn’t hit a homerun in his pro debut (34 Low-A games), but the power has shown up in college and he still has the potential for thirty homeruns. As with all toolsy players, he could be great or he could be Corey Patterson.
NOTE: He's injured and out for the year so we'll see how he can bounce back in 2011.

54 Reid Brignac, ss, Rays – I think this is way too high for Brignac. The guy has not produced for years, and people keep making excuses for him. Personally, I think he has an aggressive approach that eventually caught up to him. I think he could be a solid hitter, but I really don’t see him as anything great, even accounting for the fact that he’s a middle infielder. I think he could make a claim for the low side of the Top 100, but that’s about it for him.

53 Donavan Tate, of, Padres – This ranking absolutely baffles me, because he was seen as a far better prospect than just about anybody in the draft, but somehow, guys who were taken 10-15 picks later now rank ahead of him. I don’t think he became less of a ballplayer, and I don’t think any of these guys took a giant leap forward in their ten minor league games. The guy has all the tools to succeed, but he has a very far ways to go. It should be an exciting year for him as he’ll probably be in Low-A.

52 Grant Green, ss, Athletics – Baseball America and I agree on this one as he was one of the most highly regarded prospects going into last year, but had a solid, but not spectacular Junior year at USC. This may sound weird, but I really like prospects that have built up a track record and then don't live up to expectations going into the draft as I feel there is real value there. I think he is going to be a very good player with All-Star potential, but I don’t think he can rate any higher than this without any sort of performance track record to go off of in the minor leagues. Still, this is a guy that I could see moving quickly in the minors as well as being much higher on next year’s prospect list.

51 Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves – I think this is a fair rating for Teheran. He has huge potential, but he was average in Low-A last year, so there’s a lot of work to do. The raw talent is definitely there, but he needs innings to refine his secondary pitches to compliment his mid 90s heat. This should be a very interesting prospect to watch this year as he could take a huge step forward, or he could leave people left dreaming on his potential for another year.

Baseball America Top 100 Prospects: 70-61

I know these aren't the most fun-filled writings, but this is my vanity project, so read at your own peril. I have decided to go through all 100 of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects to give my opinion on each and every one of these players. I will try to make at least one off color comment on each player to keep it at least somewhat entertaining. Whenever I talk about what scouts think about a player, I am referring to the excellent work done by Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus for just about everything so big props to him. Today, we hit up prospects 70-61.

70 Josh Vitters, 3b, Cubs – Vitters would definitely make my Top 50 and maybe even Top 40. He destroyed Low-A, hitting everything in sight, and then basically got his ass kicked in 50 games at High-A. But he made up for this by doing very well during the Arizona Fall League. His defense has improved to average at third. The biggest question is his plate discipline as he doesn’t draw many walks, but he’s able to hit so many pitches, both in and out of the strike zone, that I don’t think it will stop him from being a very productive third baseman. Also, I'm assuming he'll be my buddy Peck's best friend when he plays for the Iowa Cubs. Congratulations to Peck for being in a relationship. Even if most states won't recognize gay marriage, at least Facebook will recognize gay relationships.

69 Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Braves – I’m way high on Vizcaino as he’d be about 30 spots higher on my list. He was the reason that the Braves traded Javier Vasquez (and the fact that they wanted to save money). He’s undersized which immediately makes me like him more than any list will. He’s got a great fastball, and his curveball has already shown the potential to be a plus-plus pitch. He dominated short-season ball last year, and I expect him to do more of the same when he makes his full season debut this year. Also, I really wish Harry Caray was still around so he could say Vizcaino again. Also, Harry hated Cracker Jack.


68 Alex Colome, rhp, Rays – This guy has HUGE potential, so I could see him about 20 spots higher than where they have him right now. He dominated the New York-Penn League last year, and scouts came away extremely impressed as most feel he has the highest ceiling in the Rays farm system (which is saying a lot considering their bevy of pitching prospects). Right now, consistency with command and release point are his big issues, but if he can get that going, he’s a guy that could skyrocket up the charts next year. He is related to Jesus Colome, so that's his worst case scenario.

67 Tim Beckham, ss, Rays – Beckham seems reasonably rated at this spot. His first full season was a pretty big disappointment, but there’s a reason he was the #1 pick a couple years ago. He wasn’t a definitive #1 like Strasburg, but scouts still like his tools. I honestly don’t know enough about him to comment any more, but I do think he has the best chance of moving 30+ spots on next year’s list. Whether he moves up or down is still up in the air. He also has no relation to David Beckham.

66 Dan Hudson, rhp, White Sox – I think Hudson should probably be 20-30 spots higher than this as I am a huge fan of his. What he did was very similar to what Matt Garza did a few years ago when he made his way to the majors. He absolutely dominated Low-A, High-A, and Double-A last year. Then he was good in Triple-A and the majors when he made it there. The only concerns are that his slider needs some refinement and he works up in the zone a little too much. It was his first full season in the minors, and he has a good chance of making an impact at the major league level this year, but I see him starting the year at Triple-A. Still, a great prospect who I feel Baseball America is highly underrating. No relation to Tim Hudson.

65 Alex White, rhp, Indians – I think this is a fair ranking for White, but I do like him more than most and he’s a little higher in my book. He hasn’t pitched any professional innings, and his junior year was a bit of a disappointment, but the guy had a great college career. He’s got a very good fastball and splitter as well as an average slider, and I think he can stay in a starting role as opposed to moving to the bullpen. Really though, there’s not much to go on right now, so we’ll see how he does once he starts facing the professionals. Contrary to popular belief, he is not the son of Vanna White.

64 Jason Knapp, rhp, Indians – Here’s a guy that is rated too high for my likings. Although his strikeout rate was excellent, he still had a rather high ERA. The biggest concern is he had many injuries including a shoulder surgery that ended his season. I just think there are way too may question marks regarding Knapp to put him up this high, and I think he’s about 20 spots lower. Still, the raw talent is there, scouts love him, but I still think I’d take the wait and see approach on this guy. Although I was unable to confirm this, he is probably not as tough as Brandon Knapp.

63 Zach Britton, lhp, Orioles – I think this is a pretty fair rating for him as he did a good job in High-A last year with a 2.70 ERA and striking out nearly a batter per inning. The biggest thing that Britton brings to the table is a 3.4:1 ratio of groundballs to fly balls. He’s got solid stuff, but only has his sinker and slider to rely on right now as his changeup is still a work in progress. If the changeup develops, he goes up on the list, but he could still remain in this area next year if it doesn’t as any pitcher who can induce that many groundballs will find a way to the majors. He is not from Britain.

62 Ike Davis, 1b, Mets – I’d probably put Ike Davis a little lower than this. He’s a first base prospect who isn’t all that athletic, but he did hit the ball very well at Double-A last year so the guy can do enough to be a starting first baseman. Still, he struggled against left-handers, and he strikes out more than one would like. Still, he knows how to work a count and crushed righties, so I think he’ll be a starting first baseman, but I think he may end up being a middle-tier first baseman as opposed to a top tier guy.

61 Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins – I think this is a fair ranking for him, as although I like him a lot, there are health concerns that, well, concern me. Gibson was one of the top arms in college coming into his final college season, but he lost some of his velocity late in the season, but was still able to dominate. Then, a stress fracture in his forearm was found, so he fell to late in the first round. I thought it was an excellent value pick, as he has two very good pitches (fastball, slider), and a solid changeup. He has very good command, and he is somebody who should be able to plow through the minors quickly. If the velocity is back, he is a steal for the Twins.

That's it for now, but I will be making UFC picks later today.

-Joe