Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Tajh Boyd

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Earlier this season, Tajh Boyd was seriously considered as a candidate for the first quarterback that would be taken in the draft. He was tearing up defenses and Clemson was a legitimate national title contender. Then Florida State happened and all that shine got rubbed off quickly. I have watched a decent amount of Clemson games over the last few years and Boyd always struck me as solid but never wowed me with his potential. I saw him in person at the Orange Bowl and was mostly left with an infatuation with Sammy Watkins. Still, I wanted to put him under the microscope to see where he ranks among the other quarterbacks in the draft. I took a look at his games against Georgia, Florida State, and Wake Forest (Editor's note: This was originally all about Tajh Boyd, but it's impossible to talk about him without bringing up Watkins, so there is some Sammy Watkins love sprinkled in).

First off, here is a nice throw from Boyd on an out route to Sammy Watkins.

Look at Watkins attack that ball with his hands. If he lets the ball come into his chest, the defender breaks it up, as he has great coverage, but Watkins extends his arms to meet the ball as soon as he can. A nice play on both ends, as Boyd put the ball where it needed to be.

This is a very nice deep ball from Boyd.

He pump fakes, and it may have caught the defender, but the two camera angles are impossible to sync, as it may have just been Watkins stutter step that froze the corner. Either way, Boyd tosses up a beautiful deep ball, and then Watkins hits the after burners to make it into the end zone.

He shows the ability to make some nice throws on intermediate routes.

He does a nice job of putting it through the zone on this play and leading Watkins perfectly.

Here is a touchdown pass from Tajh Boyd.

Alright, so I'm full on breaking into Sammy Watkins highlights. Can you blame me? Look at that catch. That's simply not fair.

This is a throw where if he puts it in front of the receiver, he can get a big play. Unfortunately, he throws it behind his receiver instead of leading him. Most receivers won't be able to catch this ball.

That being said, Sammy Watkins is not most receivers. He reaches behind his body and makes the catch, trucks a defensive back, and sprints to the end zone. Still, this is the sort of play that looks great on a stat sheet for Boyd but not one that looks all that impressive when actually looking at the throw.

He just doesn't show much for accuracy or great decision making on this play.

He overthrows this ball, which is a positive, because the cornerback had coverage on anything thrown over the top. Still, he had a receiver down the sideline in single coverage. If he tries to make a back shoulder throw, the receiver might be able to make a play on the ball for a good gain.

On this pass, he not only makes a bad decision to throw the ball when the safety had easy coverage over the top, but he also overthrows it as well.

A more experienced safety probably intercepts that pass. Instead, Sammy Watkins is able to turn it into a pass interference call on the defense.

This is a bad case of Boyd showing tunnel vision when targeting his receiver.

He never sees the defender drifting over, and even had that guy not been there, he was still trying to squeeze a ball with two men in the area.

The Florida State game was really ugly for the entire Clemson team. Florida State got away with some contact throughout the game, and his receivers were often just not on the same page. Boyd made some bad mistakes as well, but that beating was the cause of Florida State being great and Clemson being really poor. I can't come to the conclusion of him not rising to the occasion; I think it was more just that guys are always going to have some bad days. These are the best examples of the team being out of sync.

And...

Yep.

Going in a different direction, he does a nice job of reading the field on this play.

He starts off looking to his right, then works over to his left and throws a very nice pass to his receiver. Unfortunately, that ball was still dropped. Still, the blame cannot be placed on Boyd as he made a nice play. This was not a skill I saw very much of, but that is partially due to the design of Clemson's offense which has a lot of quick screens and is built on presnap reads instead of having the quarterback make a lot of decisions once the ball is snapped.

Although he has good mobility, he doesn't move well within the pocket. Here, only one rusher is causing any sort of penetration, and Boyd has two blockers on him, yet he still cannot avoid the rush from him.

This is an issue I saw pop up on a few of his dropbacks, as he does a nice job of looking towards receivers, but does not do a good job of subtle movements to avoid pass rushers.

Inconsistency. That seems to be the story with every part of Tajh Boyd's game. He can throw some great deep balls...and some awful ones. He can lead receivers perfectly...and throw it well behind them. He can move well and scan the field...and panic and make ill-advised decisions. If all you had to do was flash talent, Boyd would be a first round pick. Unfortunately, there is just very little consistency in anything that he does on the football field. He always runs hard, but that isn't enough to draft a quarterback off of. His stats are inflated, because of receivers making plays around him. I went to the Orange Bowl and saw him throw for 378 yards and 5 touchdowns and thought he was just fine. His first touchdown to Watkins was nice; other than that, he had wide receivers (Watkins especially) making plays for him. And this was on a good day. The potential is there with Boyd, but with all the inconsistencies, it's a gamble I wouldn't bet on before the late rounds of the draft, as he is much closer to Logan Thomas than he is to Zach Mettenberger.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida

3. Jimmy Garoppolo - Eastern Illinois
4. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State

5. Tajh Boyd - Clemson
6. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech
7. Brett Smith - Wyoming
8. Aaron Murray - Georgia

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Why You Should Watch Machida vs. Mousasi Tonight

It's the weekend, which means there is another UFC fight card tonight. Even for people who don't watch The Ultimate Fighter, there is a whole lot of MMA on these days, especially UFC. Some people complain of oversaturation, but that's still a good thing as you can now pick and choose which cards are worth your time. Top to bottom, this card isn't great on paper, but the main event is something that has had me excited for months.

Everybody knows Lyoto Machida. His only definitive losses have come to Shogun and Jon Jones. He's had some other close decisions, some where the judges favored him, and others where I feel the judges made a mistake. He's incredible at hitting his opponent without getting hit. People originally thought he was just a points fighter, but he has gotten so good at hitting with accuracy and picking spots to go in for the kill that this is no longer an issue for him. Watching him in a standup fight will always be fascinating as his style is so different than his opponents.

Most UFC fans don't know as much about Gegard Mousasi, but this dude is the truth. In the last 7 1/2 years, he's lost once. And this fight marks his move back to middleweight which is a much better weight class for him as his biggest walking around weight was only about 210-215 pounds. It is either hilarious or maddening how much this guy seems to not give a shit when it comes to fighting. I once saw him in an exhibition against Fedor at an M-1 Global event, and he looked like he just woke up from a nap. He was sparring with the best fighter in the world at the time and was just going through the motions until Fedor through a left high kick that nearly took his head off. He seemed more upset that he was fully awake than anything else.

Also on that card was Muhammed Lawal (beating the shit out of Mark Kerr; it was originally scheduled to be Don Frye) who gave Mousasi his only recent loss. Lawal was able to do this, because Mousasi doesn't give a shit about wrestling defense. He still did more damage from his back than Lawal did from the top, but judges love position more than damage, so Lawal got the decision victory.

He had a draw with late-career Keith Jardine for the same reason. If somebody wanted to take him down, he'd let them. Luckily, he fought a lot of his career in Japan where Shinya Aoki was considered to have good takedowns (then he came to the United States where he was completely outclassed by real wrestlers), so it didn't matter. He could just stay on his feet and blast fools. He even did a little kickboxing where he showed that he's

Now it has been three years since Mousasi fought Jardine and four since he fought Lawal. There is a good possibility that his takedown defense has gotten better. But that's the beauty of this fight. It doesn't matter. These two are going to strike with each other, and Mousasi is silky smooth on his feet. He has that style that looks effortless but can still absolutely turn his opponent's lights out.

So I know that the names and hype aren't necessarily there tonight, but Machida vs. Mousasi is a fight that is going to deliver. I've loved Mousasi for a long time, but Machida is a guy who has made me look stupid many times in the past. Still, this is definitely a case of listening to my heart and taking Mousasi by TKO.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

How The WWE Could Have Made Breaking Bad Better

I just finished up Breaking Bad, and it was a great show. So great that it is hard to find any problems with the show. I felt totally satisfied with my viewing experience from beginning to end. Still, there is one way this show could have improved. They could have replaced all of the male characters with the members of the Nation of Domination. I know that sounds a tad extreme, but just hear me out. The actors were fantastic, but these guys would have made the show that much better.

1. Walter White should have been played by The Rock. I mean, if you want a badass chemistry teacher, there is really no better option than The Rock. There is very rarely a better option than The Rock.
He's so unassuming, yet still so badass. Also, a bald head, which shows the intensity of the chemotherapy. Truly an ideal option.

2. With Walter now being played by The Rock. Jesse Pinkman needs to be amped up a little bit. Who would make a perfect protege for Walt? Obviously D-Lo Brown.
He was known as a great European Champion, so it should be no problem for him to switch to a Chemistry Champion instead.

3. With just two tweaks, we've changed the whole dynamic of the show, which means that Hank now has to be more badass. This is the role Crush was born to play.
Also, the interracial composition of the family would really add to the drama.

4. This leads me to Gustavo Fring. He was a great leader, but he could have been a better leader. He could have been Farooq.
Woah, woah, woah. That came across as super racist. Let's try that again.
Much better.

5. Mike has to be the biggest badass on the show, so he will be played by Mark Henry.
Yep, that should work just fine.

6. But who would play Saul Goodman? Saul was cast nearly perfectly, and he was such a pimp throughout the show. Wait a minute, that gives me an idea.
You can't tell me that's not an award winning billboard.

7. But who could possibly play Walter Jr.? His inability to move or speak properly will be tough for anyone to replicate, but don't worry, I already know of someone who does both of those features naturally. This was the role Ahmed Johnson was born to play.

He's perfect. I'm so proud of this.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo is a guy who has been getting more and more hype as the season closed and he performed well at both the East-West Shrine Game and Senior Bowl. I love college football, but I will admit that I have never seen a second of Eastern Illinois in my entire life. Usually I can find some game tape cut up of performances, but I wasn't able to get that same experience for Garoppolo. Instead, I sifted through highlight videos to try to see what he does well and what he can work on. I found a highlight against Illinois State and all the big plays from his game against Northern Illinois.

The first thing that stood out about Garoppolo is his deep accuracy. He throws a nice deep ball as he shows on back-to-back plays here.

His receiver gets a little separation, and he only has to slightly slow down for the ball, but overall, this is an impressive throw from Garoppolo.The second ball is not as deep, but it's still a ball down the field that he throws accurately.

Along those same lines, this is an even more impressive deep ball.

He recognizes the pressure, gets rid of the ball quickly, and still hits his receiver in stride for an easy touchdown. Deep ball accuracy is something that nearly every college quarterback struggles with, so to see this sort of accuracy is very impressive.

His accuracy is not something that he only possesses on deep balls as it carries over to the short and intermediate routes as well. He throws a nice slant here that leads his receiver perfectly.

Even with the play action, he gets it out quick enough where his receiver can tuck before getting destroyed by the safety over the middle.

From what I have seen, he's not going to wow anybody with his arm strength, but it looks sufficient to be successful at the next level. He's not firing bullets, but he has zip on the ball, and it looks good on film.

One thing that I have to bring up when watching all of these highlights is that it is clear that this is a lower level of football. In nearly every player, they are either noticeably smaller or slower than their counterparts at the FBS level. A lot of times, they are both smaller and slower. So although Garoppolo throwing for 480 yards and seven touchdowns is impressive, the level of competition takes a little of the shine off those numbers.

On the downside, he's not great with pressure.

The reverse bailing out method to deal with pressure is a great way to lose a lot of yards, and that is what happens here. Bailing out on the pocket and turning your back to the line of scrimmage rarely works out well, and it is not a good habit to start.

Along with his problems with pressure, he is not great at reading the field when his first option is not open. He recognizes that there is a blitz coming, but his offensive line actually picks it up well. Still, he panics and barely looks to his left before throwing the ball.

Had he taken a second to read the defense to that side, he would not have thrown that ball as the cornerback has underneath coverage and the safety is over the top. Instead, he badly underthrows the ball which leads to an easy interception for Northern Illinois.

Reading the defense is a concern, but it is a skill that he has shown that he can do. This is a really nice play from him and another beautiful deep ball.

This is an essential skill to being a successful quarterback, so even though he may not have shown it consistently, even seeing flashes gives me hope that it is a skill he can develop in the future.

This is my favorite throw that I saw of his. He definitely has the best fade ball out of all of the prospects, and I would honestly put his touch on the fade route up against any pro quarterback. It doesn't get better than this.

That is just unfair. The defender has good coverage, but the ball is placed perfectly, and there is nothing he can do. Just a beautiful throw.

I really like Jimmy Garoppolo, but to be totally honest, this is the least comfortable I feel about grading any quarterback. There just wasn't a lot to go off of that was readily available to me. Still, there are a lot of positives in his game. He is definitely the most accurate deep passer that I have seen so far and may be the most accurate quarterback overall. Still, everything at the FCS level is a step slower, and that does discount some of what he is able to do. How much is the big question. He really struggled with pressure, but some of those times, his offensive line just got completely blown up by Northern Illinois, and there's not much any quarterback could have done in those situations. His ability to read defenses is inconsistent, and overall, I would put it as a weakness for him currently. Those are my big concerns. But I keep coming back to that accuracy and some of the best fade throws that I have seen from any quarterback. Drafting any quarterback is a gamble as it is a huge step up from college football to the NFL. Drafting someone from the FCS increases that risk. Still, I see the tools to be successful, and that accuracy is attractive enough that I would put him ahead of Zach Mettenberger on my draft board, although I still see a large gap between him and Blake Bortles.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida

3. Jimmy Garoppolo - Eastern Illinois
4. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State
5. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech

6. Brett Smith - Wyoming
7. Aaron Murray - Georgia

Thursday, February 6, 2014

The 11 Most Valuable Iowa Hawkeyes

The B1G season is over halfway done, and it is pretty clear what kind of team the Hawkeyes are this year. They're really good. They aren't great, but they have the talent to play with anybody. All of their losses (outside of Ohio State) can easily be explained away with free throws, as I show here:

Villanova - Didn't make free throws down the stretch.
Iowa State - Didn't make free throws down the stretch.
Wisconsin - Gave up four free throws when McCaffery got the boot.
Michigan - Refs didn't call fouls, so Iowa didn't get to the free throw line enough.
Michigan State - Could only make free throws down the stretch but didn't make enough of them.
Ohio State - Only shot 62% from the stripe, but 15% from three is what really killed them.

I honestly have an easier time seeing the basketball team win a National Championship than the wrestling team (Quick summary: Penn State has freakishly good wrestlers, and most of Iowa's team squeaks by in their matches), and I never thought I would be able to say that. Iowa may have the deepest team in the NCAA. That is positive in that lots of good players is a good thing, but also bad, because it means that very few Hawkeyes stand out above the rest. Since Iowa rolls 11 deep, I thought that this would be a good time to look at these 11 players to see who are the most important pieces for Iowa to make a significant run in the NCAA Tournament.

11. Peter Jok - Basically, everything that he provides is provided better by Josh Oglesby. So, he's probably not going to see many meaningful minutes down the stretch. Still, he is only a Freshman, so his role will increase as time goes on.

10. Zach McCabe - If McCabe is on, that's great. He plays gritty defense and can knock down open threes when he is open. But, Iowa doesn't need a big contribution from McCabe. If he is off and can only contribute four tough fouls, they will still be fine. With the other depth they have in the front court, they will be okay if McCabe is not on fire.

9. Anthony Clemmons - Clemmons has not played well for the most part this season, but if he can play well, it will really help out the team. If he is working well as a point guard, it gives them a chance to rest both Gesell and Marble so that they can be at full-strength during crunch time. He doesn't need to be a scorer, but if he can play solid defense and make the right decisions with the ball in his hands, then Iowa will be putting even more pressure on opposing teams.

8. Adam Woodbury - Yes, Woodbury is a starter, but I think most Iowa fans would agree that he is not the center that has been playing the best basketball for this team. Still, he is very useful. Any time you can put a legit 7 footer out there to play defense and get in the post, that has incredible value. Even if he just puts his arms straight up, he adds a lot of challenges to anybody coming into the paint. He always knows where he is supposed to be, and that reliability adds to his impact, but the ceiling of his impact is fairly low.

7. Josh Oglesby - Oglesby is finally living up to that "shooter" label that was bestowed upon him after last year's disastrous season. It was disastrous on offense, but his defense took a leap forward which is something that has carried over to this season. He's not athletic enough to be a shutdown defender, but he is always in the right spot, and he plays his man tough. If he can add to that the three point threat, the Hawkeyes offense becomes incredibly difficult to stop. He's not going to get starters minutes, but he can make a huge impact in just 15 minutes if he is hot.

6. Jarrod Uthoff - The other reliable shooter, although Uthoff brings a little bit more to the table as an inside presence who shows some nifty moves every now and then. Uthoff doesn't have the power to be dunking on people, but he plays fairly smart basketball, and if he is on, he can make impact plays on both sides of the court. Also, bonus points for Wisconsin hating him so much.

5. Melsahn Basabe - Melsahn is a pure energy guy, but he causes some serious issues when he is running the court. I honestly think that Melsahn is better than the next guy on the list, but Iowa has the option of spreading the floor with Uthoff at the four, so Melsahn is not as necessary. Still, the defense and energy he can provide is huge. He also can dominate the offensive glass, and he has some nifty moves to get good looks near the basket. He really fits in with this team well.

4. Gabe Olaseni - When Olaseni knows where to be on the floor, Iowa is really tough. He doesn't always know where to be, but he has gotten better and better each year. When I first saw him, I never expected much beyond some garbage time minutes, but he has improved exponentially over the years. He is a beast, and he sprints down the floor for the opportunity to get an easy look. He has springs in his legs, as he can jump and rejump better than most big guys. He doesn't need to be a big scorer, but if he can get a few putbacks and protect the rim, Iowa will be tough to beat.

3. Mike Gesell - This is the guy that I had the most trouble ranking. He could be five spots lower if you are fine with Marble running the point, where Marble has been shown to be pretty good. You could make the argument of making him a spot higher, because Marble is best when he can come off screens to drive to the hole or get an open jumper. Overall, I'm closer to the latter. If he can make this offense go, then everything else falls into place. He does a great job of taking care of the ball and even though he is barely leading in assists, his assists seem more valuable as he puts his teammates in an easy position to score. If he can hit the three when he gets the opportunity, that's all gravy.

2. Aaron White - White can disappear for an entire half, but that doesn't mean I want that to happen. He is the most efficient player on the team, by far, and it is just a matter of getting him the ball. White is nonstop energy, so he will find open windows, but Iowa needs to be aware of those windows and get him the ball when he gets to those areas. If they are getting him the ball, he is going to score, and he will probably draw some fouls as well. He also is one of the better players at the full-court press and trap that Iowa likes to play which can lead to a couple turnovers if done properly.

1. Roy Devyn Marble - Maybe it's just me, but I don't think people are talking nearly enough about the leap that Marble has made this season. He has become such a smarter player and just better in every facet of the game. His defense is a ton better as he is in the right spots on the zone but does a good job of picking his spots when going for steals. His shot is much improved, but the big thing is that he is even better at getting to the rim. This has been huge, as even if his shot is off, he can still make an impact on offense. The other game, he looked terrible as his shots were way off, so he just started driving to the hole. After starting 0-3, he repeatedly drove to the hole to get his shot, and then felt comfortable enough to fire another three which he made. Last year, he was going to keep throwing up bricks, but he was able to reset his rhythm and get into a good groove and be a positive impact on offense. I know Iowa fans love Aaron White, and I love him too, but Roy Devyn Mamba is the most valuable player on this team.

I wrote most of this before Tuesday's letdown against Ohio State, so I took some time off to give myself perspective. I'm not a big believer in teams not being clutch or not knowing how to win close games. Honestly, the bounces just haven't gone Iowa's way. But the talent is there, and that is what matters. They could definitely make a "shocking" run in the tournament, and it wouldn't really surprise me at all. Go Hawks.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Brett Smith

This is obviously a very interesting year for underclassmen quarterbacks to declare for the draft. The draftniks can't stop talking about them. There is Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and of course, Brett Smith. Who? You know, Brett Smith, star quarterback of the Wyoming Cowboys. Still not ringing a bell? Alright, you're probably not alone. I had heard about Brett Smith, but I'll admit, I failed to watch a single snap of Wyoming football this season. I decided to break down his game by looking at his performances against Nebraska and Northwest rival, Idaho.

If you're buying into Smith, you're buying the accuracy. He does a nice job of leading his receivers on crossing routes over the middle.

My one concern is that when I did see him missing passes over the middle, it was always high. Those are balls that will turn into interceptions, so he needs to tighten things up a little bit. Still, as I said, he is usually accurate with his throws and does a nice job of leading receivers on short-to-intermediate routes.

He is a good athlete that is a threat to run with the ball as he shows here.

It's nothing special, but he accelerates well and runs into the open field and shows that he has solid mobility that will benefit him. I still would not consider him a dual-threat quarterback despite putting up some pretty solid running stats.

On the negatives side, he is not real smooth in his motions. Sometimes he can look a little robotic out there when setting his feet. Also, there is not much velocity on his throws. It really looks like he is pushing a lot of his passes to his receivers instead of driving them toward his intended target.

Speaking of that, I'm also not a fan of the sidearm delivery. Yes, there have been other quarterbacks who have been successful with it, but it requires that quarterback to be great at everything else to have a chance at success. It can work in a west coast offense that is built on timing, but with the way he waits for his receivers to get open, I have a hard time seeing him succeed with the tools he has shown.

This is a perfectly placed ball down the field, but the velocity on the throw leaves something to be desired.

It really reminds me of what Kellen Moore was able to do for Boise State a few years ago in that the deep balls were not pretty, but they were effective at the college level. This is probably the best ball I saw him throw, as it's not a terrible arc and it is right on the money.

This next pass is one of the worst throws I've ever seen from a college quarterback.

That is like a Tecmo Bowl pass where it just stays in the air forever. If somebody is throwing up a hail mary, I understand. If someone is throwing it 70 yards, I can understand. It went about 42 yards in the air. It is the most arm punt pass I have ever seen.

Back to the positive which includes good pocket presence as he feels pressure well while still keeping his eyes down the field. This play is not pretty, but he does maintain his composure to find the open receiver, but he's a split second late on getting rid of the ball and can't make a proper throw on the pass.

Still, he makes subtle movements to give himself about an extra second before the rush gets there, and he does identify the right receiver to get the ball to. Most college quarterbacks put their heads down in that situation, so it is nice that he can keep his eyes down field, even if the ball still falls incomplete. Still, this is a consistent skill he has shown, as seen on this play, which ends slightly better than the first one.

He not only does a good job of moving within the pocket, but he has a good sense on when to leak outside of the pocket to look for some space. All the while, he keeps his eyes down the field, so he is able to make a nice pass inside the red zone.

Despite him having good pocket awareness and accurate throws, the other issue that is going to hurt him is that he waits for receivers to get open instead of leading them open. Throwing windows are very small for the most part, so waiting that extra little bit to see a receiver open instead of anticipating him to get open will really hurt him at the next level.

On this breakdown, I didn't use as much video as normal, because the bad things are evident on every throw. The arm strength just isn't there. At that point, you are really limiting your offense and every pass of any decent yardage becomes a real adventure. I mentioned him earlier, and I truly believe the best comp for him is Kellen Moore. They do just about everything right but simply don't have the physical tools to be a successful quarterback. They deserve a great amount of respect for reaching the levels of success they achieved; my arm strength only took me to elementary recess quarterback before I learned that my noodle arm was not going to be enough to stretch 11-person defenses. Still, he's a guy you can take a late round flyer on in a west coast system where he can be a competent backup, but nobody you ever want playing meaningful minutes.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville

2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida
3. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State
4. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech

5. Brett Smith - Wyoming
6. Aaron Murray - Georgia

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Teddy Bridgewater

Today, I want to take a look at a prospect that most have had at the top of their list of quarterbacks the entire year. Teddy Bridgewater has had scouts salivating over his talents for years now, and most still view him as a top-5 pick in this upcoming draft. Still, that #1 quarterback position has been challenged recently by Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel, so it is no longer the lock it seemed to be a couple months ago. I had watched a little bit of Louisville this season, and from what I saw, I was impressed, but I decided to dig deeper by looking at his games against Ohio, a conference game against Houston, and the bowl game against Miami.

The first thing that stands out is Bridgewater just makes things look easy. He quickly finds his receiver and fires the ball.

This play is not going to be shown on highlight videos, but I need something to warm up the audience to what they are about to see through this breakdown.

He has a lightning quick release.

I don't make much out of releases, because there are much bigger things to focus on with quarterbacks, but seeing how quickly he can fire the ball while still putting zip on it is impressive.

He is very quick at going through his progressions. On this play, it appears that he looks at four different receivers. He looks left to start, then shifts back to the right. Then he shifts back to the middle, but he takes an extra split second before dumping the ball to the running back, because he was looking at the crossing pattern beyond the running back at first, but saw the defender closing down that route.

He does this all in approximately three seconds. It comes about 15 yards short of the first down, but he gave every option a look before settling for the short gain. Outside of accurately throwing the ball, there may not be an aspect more important than being able to quickly go through the progressions when finding an open receiver.

One thing that I sadly have to clarify is that although he is a black quarterback, he's not a running quarterback in the mold of RG3 or Colin Kaepernick. Louisville did do some read option with him, but it was more as a change of pace as opposed to being the backbone of the offense. That being said, he is still very athletic, as he moves really well in the pocket, but he's more quick than fast. He has great footwork, as he can quickly adjust his feet and set to throw. That being said, there are some refinements that could make him even better in the future as shown on this play.

The positives are that he was able to avoid the pressure this time, focused his eyes back on his receivers down the field and made a positive play. However, spinning and looping backwards is a dangerous game, and it has cost him big losses at times, as his left tackle could be doing his job and still be taking the edge rusher right into him with that strategy. If he slips up into the pocket, he's got a perfectly clean throwing lane and a much easier play. On a lot of plays, Bridgewater will do a good job of stepping up, but he does try that bail out technique more than I like. The key positive is that he is not a quarterback who puts the ball down and decides to run immediately. By keeping his eyes downfield, he opens up opportunities by being able to throw or run even when his protection breaks down.

He also does a very nice job of staying in the pocket instead of panicking when there is a blitz. On this play, his protection picks up the pressure, and he is able to fire the ball right as his receiver turns around despite having a guy in his face.

It is a small thing, but his blocking pushes the blockers beyond him on the blitz, so he takes a small step up and fires the ball to his receiver. It's not a wow moment, but it does a good job of showing his pocket awareness.

He throws very well on the move. Even when rolling to his left, he is able to throw a hell of a ball down the field while on the move. That is just ridiculous.

If he's rolling to his strong side, that's still a great throw. Yes, his receiver was wide open, but that was still going to require solid coverage to not get beaten on that ball. There aren't a ton of quarterbacks who can roll to their weak side and throw a 40 yard strike. Teddy Bridgewater can.

Bridgewater shows amazing touch on balls. This is something that is rarely seen from any quarterback, especially in college, but he knows when to use his arm strength, and he also knows when to take something off of it to put the ball exactly where he wants it.

This is just a beautiful loft into the end zone that lands perfectly in his receiver's hands. You can hear the announcer laugh after the play, because it's so tough to come up with the proper words, so all a person can do is chuckle about what they are seeing.

There are some games where his deep ball is on, and there are other games where he can struggle. Against Miami, he was a little off for most of the day. Still, on these back-to-back throws, he shows the good and bad. The first ball is overthrown, but he is definitely able to redeem himself with the next throw.

He is under pressure on that first throw, and he may have put a little extra on it because of that. He more than makes up for it as he is able to throw a nice ball down the sideline that his receiver can go up and get. Against Ohio, everything was on, and he was consistently putting the ball wherever he wanted it, so I have very little concern that he won't be able to challenge teams down the field at the next level.

This is one of my favorite throws that I saw from him. He looks over the middle first, sees nothing there. Then he looks to the right, and throws the ball just as the receiver is breaking to the outside, so his receiver has room to stay in bounds. Plus he puts plenty of zip on the ball so the corner has no chance to make a play, and there is also no way for the safety to get there in time to break up the route over the top.

He is on the near hash, so if he takes even a split second longer, it is going to be very difficult for his receiver to stay in bounds on that route. He does a great job at everything on this play.

Finally, my favorite pass from Bridgewater.

The way he fires this ball and places it perfectly on the back shoulder is something to behold. I could watch this pass all day.

The first word that comes to mind when watching Bridgewater is smooth. Everything he does looks so effortless. He is doing these incredible things, but he makes it all look very easy. Nitpicking, he could handle pressure better as the bailing out technique can cause some serious losses, his deep ball consistency could use some work, and he looks a little thin which could cause injury issues. Other than that, hoo boy, I think I'm in love. I really like Blake Bortles, but Bridgewater is just better. That smoothness also makes me think his success is more easily repeatable than Bortles. That is why I give him the edge and rank him as my #1 quarterback that I have scouted so far. I think the Texans would be crazy to pass on him, even for a physical freak like Jadeveon Clowney. The quarterback position is by far the most important position in football, and that is why it would be a huge mistake to take anyone other than Teddy Bridgewater.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville

2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida
3. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State
4. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech
5. Aaron Murray - Georgia

Friday, January 24, 2014

My Predictions for the 2014 Royal Rumble

The Royal Rumble is the greatest single match of the year. Yes, a WrestleMania main event is great, and Money in the Bank is awesome, but I have been looking forward to the Royal Rumble since the last Royal Rumble. Even crappy battle royals that Zack Ryder wins excite me. The Royal Rumble is the best. Here are all of my predictions for the event.

First off, Randy Orton will beat John Cena. John Cena's match at Mania is always important, because it's John Cena. Orton needs the belt to be important, so I think he holds onto it for this match. Also, I think Cena does something with Hogan involved at Mania.

Next, Lesnar is beating The Big Show. No doubt about it.

I'm actually going to pick Bray Wyatt over Daniel Bryan. They clearly want to elevate Wyatt, and this seems like the best way to do it.

Cody Rhodes and Goldust will beat the New Age Outlaws. At least, I really hope they do. They were the team that was good enough to beat the unbeatable tag team, The Shield, so they probably shouldn't lose to two retired guys who are well past their best days.

There will be a surprise appearance from an NXT Superstar. That person will be Sami Zayn. Most of the WWE Universe will have no response. I will start cheering from my house. He will eliminate my favorite wrestler, Antonio Cesaro. They will begin a feud against each other. Everyone will watch these two wrestle and have the wonderful moment of, "Holy shit, these guys are awesome." An angel will get its wings.

Chris Jericho will be a surprise entrant, because why not. And no, I'm not going to take the time to look up Fozzy's tour schedule to see if that is even possible.

Sheamus will come back for the Rumble. He's been out for a really long time, so this seems like a good time for him to come back.

Dolph Ziggler comes back for the Rumble. At least I hope so, because that will mean that he no longer has any ill effects from his concussion.

Finally, Daniel Bryan will win the Royal Rumble. Yeah, I have him losing his singles match, but that makes it the ultimate emotional rollercoaster for Bryan supporters. And who is a better guy to face Orton at Mania? Batista? That's boring, and Mania is all about mainstream publicity. Daniel Bryan is the kind of feel good story that they can put on the national media. They can point to his famous yes chants that have taken over at sporting events. Daniel Bryan is finally done being the underdog, as he's on his way to being the big dog of the WWE.