Ugh, this post is totally irrelevant with the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament, but hell, might as well publish what I wrote. I only did the first five weights but put predictions down for everybody. Once the tournament was cancelled, I definitely did not alter any of the below predictions.
It’s finally here. The 2020 NCAA Championships where the Hawkeyes are favored to end their 10-year National Title drought. Of course, that’s only if the event actually takes place. Coronavirus is spreading across the nation, and there have been events cancelled, events that have been blocked from fans, and even international wrestling events already postponed. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but ultimately, I have to proceed as if this thing is still going on, and if it doesn’t, this should give you a good idea of what might have happened had the tournament actually taken place. Today, the little guys, and tomorrow, the big guys.
125 - Spencer Lee - #1 Seed
There’s no need for a deep dive into Spencer Lee’s early opponents. At best, his first two opponents will only get tech falled, and his third opponent may be able to keep it to a major decision, but I would still bet on tech fall. That gets him all the way to the semifinals where he is likely to face Jack Mueller, the man he beat in the finals of last year’s NCAA Tournament, but Mueller recently took a pretty bad beating from the #10 seed, Jakob Camacho, in the ACC Finals where he lost 11-4. Since Mueller was very good last year and has been fairly dominant outside of that match, I’ll say that he can keep it to a major decision.
As for the finals, #2 Pat Glory is undefeated and has already beaten #3 Nick Piccininni so he’s the likely favorite to take on Lee in the finals. Last year, Spencer Lee got a tech fall in the dual meet before winning 12-6 at the Midlands. I know Glory got closer, and he’s definitely improved as he lost to Piccininni last year, but I’m going Spencer Lee, and I’ll even give him a major decision, because Spencer Lee is that damn good.
PREDICTION: Spencer Lee - National Championship
133 - Austin DeSanto - #6 Seed
Austin DeSanto finished fourth at the Big Ten Tournament, which seemed to be his floor, but his performance was far more concerning than that. After overwhelming his first round opponent, he had one takedown in his last four matches. That is insane for somebody as offensively prodigious as DeSanto. People were not letting him get to their arm, and he was unable to get his offense set up from different positions. Because I’m a homer, I still see this as a blip, but it’s still a concern going into the tournament. He did fall to the sixth seed after being ranked in the top 3 the entire season, but the bracket lined up fairly well for him.
He’ll start off with NC State’s Jarrett Trombley, a guy who has held some top guys to decisions but doesn’t have the offense to be a real threat. I think DeSanto steamrolls him. After that, it will likely be #11 seed, Cameron Sykora out of North Dakota State. This match worries me as he has basically wrestled everyone fairly close this year, and he’s on an eight-match winning streak where he managed to win the Big 12. Good DeSanto beats this guy without a ton of worry, but if he’s not on his game, this has high upset potential.
I’m hoping DeSanto gets past him, because then things get REAL interesting where he will likely take on #3 seed, Cornell’s Chaz Tucker, who is undefeated this season. He’s the only undefeated guy in the bracket, but his best wins are likely his two victories over Montorie Bridges who is only the #8 seed. There is also not a lot of bonus point victories from him as things tend to be very close. DeSanto has wrestled Tucker twice, but they were both two years ago while he was still at Drexel and they split those two matches. Again, a fully functioning DeSanto wins this match, so let’s assume that’s the guy we see.
Then DeSanto is likely to see a very familiar face in Seth Gross who has wrestled three times. He’s 1-2, so Gross has to be favored. If DeSanto wants to win, he has to get ahead early, because it’s a nightmare to try to come back against somebody as tricky as Gross. On the opposite side of the bracket, I think Rivera is the clear favorite as his greatest challenger is likely RBY, and he looked definitively better than RBY when they wrestled at the Big Ten Tournament. If DeSanto is in an NCAA Final, all I will predict is chaos.
PREDICTION: Austin DeSanto - National Championship
141 - Max Murin - #7 Seed
The #7 seed seems about as high as they could possibly place Murin, but DAMN, that quadrant is stacked with talent. Even his first round opponent, Salvatore Profaci has beaten the 12 seed and only lost 7-3 to Nick Lee which should definitely be considered a victory. I think Murin wins, but it’s not automatic. Then he gets Mitch McKee, who I weirdly love more than his results would seem to deserve, but he is already 1-1 against Murin this year. They were both close matches, so I think it’s a coin flip.
After that, Nick Lee is likely up, and I can’t see Murin getting past him, although watch out the winner of the Tariq Wilson/Mitch Moore match, as even though Lee is the clear favorite, those guys are not slouches, especially Wilson who finished 3rd at the NCAA Tournament two years ago.
This is why it’s important for Murin to win that McKee match, because falling in to have to win a match just to take on whoever loses to Nick Lee is not a great place to be on the consolation side. Even if he gets past him, there are going to be some tough matches. Sometimes, I swear that Murin has turned a corner and is a threat to anybody, and other times, I just don’t see him getting to any of his offense, and he looks like he did last year. I know he’s better this season, but I don’t know if that’s enough.
PREDICTION: Max Murin - National Championship
149 - Pat Lugo - #1 Seed
I think the bracket sets up very nicely for Lugo. Having O’Connor, Sasso, Brayton Lee, and Kolodzik all on the bottom half is very fortuitous. This is still not an easy road as there are plenty of dangerous opponents on the way, but it’s about as good as Lugo could hope for.
First off, he’s facing the winner of the 32/33 match and I would expect Lugo to pull off a rare bonus point win against an opponent already wrestling their second match of the early session. After that, he’ll either get Parriott from Purdue or DeBlasi from George Mason. I don’t think either guy is a real threat to Lugo. From there it’s Purrinton from Nebraska, who Lugo just beat by major decision at the Big Ten Tournament or more likely, a long-time nemesis, Jarrett Degen of Iowa State. He lost twice to him last year in very close matches but reversed that trend by grinding out a victory this year. I don’t know if Degen is fully healthy, but he was healthy enough to go 3-1 at the Big 12 tournament so he likely isn’t too far off. Lugo should be favored, but my butt cheeks are gonna be clenched for this one.
In the semis, it’s likely to come down between Boo Lewallen, who Lugo surprised with a pin at the Oklahoma State dual meet or Brock Mauller whose name is far scarier than the competition he’s faced this year. He does hold a win over Boo, so I’ll pick Mauller to take it again, but I still like Lugo’s chances to make it to the Finals.
After that, I have zero clue as I went through all the talent on the bottom half of the bracket. If you have a chance, watch basically every match from that bottom half, because, it’s nonstop crazy matches by the second round. I guess I’ll go Matt Kolodzik because he likely would have been the #1 seed had he wrestled a full season. Kolodzik beat Lugo twice last year, but Lugo looks light years ahead of where he was last season. 149 is a total crapshoot; I keep going back and forth every 15 seconds so I’ll be slightly pessimistic as to not jinx things.
PREDICTION: Patricio Lugo - National Championship
157 - Kaleb Young - #8 Seed
Kaleb Young got a gift as the #8 seed as I easily could have seen him ten spots lower than this after he lost his last three matches to less than impressive competition. I don’t know what to think of him at this point. He has just looked sluggish in these last few matches and his offense looks desperate instead of crisp. I don’t think he’ll have trouble in his first round match as Jacob Wright just doesn’t have a big win all year.
Next up is going to be a lot more difficult when he goes up against Arizona State’s Jacori Teemer. Teemer is currently on a ten-match win streak and has seemed to fully shaken off his early season rust. If you would have asked me two weeks ago, I would have said that Young can take him, but he just hasn’t looked right so I’m picking an early exit into the consolation bracket for Young.
This isn’t all bad, as I think he can do some damage on the back half of things, and if things play out how I think, he’ll take on Kendall Coleman, who he is 2-0 against for a shot at being an All-American this year. Kaleb Young’s a grinder, he might not win a title, but I still think he can have an impressive performance.
PREDICTION: Kaleb Young - National Championship
165 - Alex Marinelli - #1 Seed
PREDICTION: Alex Marinelli - National Championship
174 - Michael Kemerer - #2 Seed
PREDICTION: Michael Kemerer - National Championship
184 - Abe Assad - #11 Seed
PREDICTION: Abe Assad - National Championship
197 - Jacob Warner - #6 Seed
PREDICTION: Jacob Warner - National Championship
Heavyweight - Tony Cassioppi - #3 Seed
PREDICTION: Tony Cassioppi - National Championship
Yep, definitely didn’t alter my predictions at all once the tournament got cancelled. This is 100% what would have happened.
