Starting at 125 with Iowa's lone returning national champion, Spencer Lee has got to show more against Sebastian Rivera than he did in their first match at the Midlands. He was clearly beaten in that first match, but there are plenty of rumors that he wasn't fully healthy at that time. Still, he is coming into this tournament after getting pinned by Nick Piccinnini. If he is going to repeat as a national champion, he is going to have to beat Rivera. In fact, if he does beat Rivera, even though he won't be ranked number one, I don't see him losing at the NCAA Tournament.
At 133, Austin DeSanto has exceeded all expectations going into this weekend as he is currently ranked third in the nation and went undefeated in Big Ten competition. I would call it a win to make the finals as that likely means another win over Nick Suriano which would show that the move to Iowa helped him make incredible strides this season. I have trouble seeing him beat Stevan Micic, but I have trouble seeing anyone beat Micic because of how good he has been this year. Still, DeSanto puts on such a high pace that he's going to be a handful for anybody, so I certainly can't rule out the chance of an upset.
Max Murin is at 141, and he has been close with all the top guys that he faced this year, but he has not been able to pull off that big upset that could propel him into an All-American contender. So he needs a big win at this tournament to prove that he has the skills to make something happen at the NCAAs. 141 is ridiculously deep so I think there will be major upsets; Murin just has to show that he has the skills to pull off one or more of those upsets.
After a slow start, Pat Lugo has looked better and better as the season has continued on. He's hitting his stride at the right time, but he also hasn't faced any of the top-top competition during this hot streak. He'll likely have a semifinal match against Micah Jordan from Ohio State, and if he can win that, it's not inconceivable for him to beat anybody in the weight class. There is no standout favorite at 149, so if Lugo can get a win over a top guy, it would show that he has the talent to beat anybody at the NCAA Tournament.
157 is totally stacked in the Big Ten, and as much as I like Kaleb Young, I really don't see him beating any of the top four guys at this weight. I would say Berger would be the most susceptible, but Deakin seemed a tier ahead of him, Pantaleo is a monster, and Nolf is simply unbeatable. His goal should be to convincingly beat guys ranked lower than him and keep it close against that top tier, unless it's Nolf, in which case close is a major decision.
Alex Marinelli is the wrestler I am most excited about going into this weekend. I wrote earlier about how much he has improved this season, and it has been so much fun to watch. Ultimately, I don't think he needs to show anything this weekend, because I think he's already shown enough this year to prove that he could end the reign of Vincenzo Joseph at 165. Logan Massa and Evan Wick are both great wrestlers who could upset Marinelli, but yeah, this tournament only matters for seeding, as I already have full belief in Marinelli for the NCAAs.
174 is the one weight class where Iowa is in danger of not qualifying anyone for the tournament, so Mitch Bowman may have the most important job of all going into this tournament. A good draw will be very important for Bowman as he's not going to compete with the top guys, but he just needs to finish in the top eight in order to make the tournament. It's black and white for him - top eight is a win, anything less is a massive disappointment.
Cash Wilcke has finished one win away from becoming an All-American at 197 the past two years. Now he is down a weight class, and really, I have seen enough Cash Wilcke where no matter what he does this weekend will have very little impact on what I think he can do at the NCAAs. It is very likely he will be in the Round of 12, and it's just a matter of whether he can get that one last win this year or continue to fall short.
Replacing Wilcke at 197 is freshman phenom, Jacob Warner, who is really good at beating Willie Miklus but doesn't get to his offense against any other top competition. Even though he lost to Preston Weigel, he was more aggressive in his shots, and I think that could suit him well. Just seeing that aggressiveness and a gas tank that goes seven minutes will be the most important thing, and I think he has a good chance of making the final against Bo Nickal, but I have zero faith in him giving Nickal a competitive match.
Finally, at heavyweight is Sam Stoll, minus the part of his leg that got blown off when he got shot in the leg in the offseason. That seems to be an important part that he is missing, because even though he can still hang with most guys on his feet, he isn't getting to his offense like he needs to, and he has been terrible on bottom. The heavyweight division is incredibly weak this year, so if Stoll can just show some tricks from bottom, he can probably make the semifinals of the Big Tens, and it's probably enough for another All-American honor at the NCAAs.
As for the team as a whole, shoot for second place, but fourth wouldn't be a shock. Penn State is taking first, and Ohio State and Michigan will be in the mix with Iowa. The team stuff is over; it's all about the individuals now.
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