2020 Iowa Hawkeyes Wrestling NCAA Preview

Ugh, this post is totally irrelevant with the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament, but hell, might as well publish what I wrote. I only did the first five weights but put predictions down for everybody. Once the tournament was cancelled, I definitely did not alter any of the below predictions.

It’s finally here. The 2020 NCAA Championships where the Hawkeyes are favored to end their 10-year National Title drought. Of course, that’s only if the event actually takes place. Coronavirus is spreading across the nation, and there have been events cancelled, events that have been blocked from fans, and even international wrestling events already postponed. I don’t know what’s going to happen, but ultimately, I have to proceed as if this thing is still going on, and if it doesn’t, this should give you a good idea of what might have happened had the tournament actually taken place. Today, the little guys, and tomorrow, the big guys.

125 - Spencer Lee - #1 Seed
There’s no need for a deep dive into Spencer Lee’s early opponents. At best, his first two opponents will only get tech falled, and his third opponent may be able to keep it to a major decision, but I would still bet on tech fall. That gets him all the way to the semifinals where he is likely to face Jack Mueller, the man he beat in the finals of last year’s NCAA Tournament, but Mueller recently took a pretty bad beating from the #10 seed, Jakob Camacho, in the ACC Finals where he lost 11-4. Since Mueller was very good last year and has been fairly dominant outside of that match, I’ll say that he can keep it to a major decision.

As for the finals, #2 Pat Glory is undefeated and has already beaten #3 Nick Piccininni so he’s the likely favorite to take on Lee in the finals. Last year, Spencer Lee got a tech fall in the dual meet before winning 12-6 at the Midlands. I know Glory got closer, and he’s definitely improved as he lost to Piccininni last year, but I’m going Spencer Lee, and I’ll even give him a major decision, because Spencer Lee is that damn good.

PREDICTION: Spencer Lee - National Championship

133 - Austin DeSanto - #6 Seed
Austin DeSanto finished fourth at the Big Ten Tournament, which seemed to be his floor, but his performance was far more concerning than that. After overwhelming his first round opponent, he had one takedown in his last four matches. That is insane for somebody as offensively prodigious as DeSanto. People were not letting him get to their arm, and he was unable to get his offense set up from different positions. Because I’m a homer, I still see this as a blip, but it’s still a concern going into the tournament. He did fall to the sixth seed after being ranked in the top 3 the entire season, but the bracket lined up fairly well for him.

He’ll start off with NC State’s Jarrett Trombley, a guy who has held some top guys to decisions but doesn’t have the offense to be a real threat. I think DeSanto steamrolls him. After that, it will likely be #11 seed, Cameron Sykora out of North Dakota State. This match worries me as he has basically wrestled everyone fairly close this year, and he’s on an eight-match winning streak where he managed to win the Big 12. Good DeSanto beats this guy without a ton of worry, but if he’s not on his game, this has high upset potential.

I’m hoping DeSanto gets past him, because then things get REAL interesting where he will likely take on #3 seed, Cornell’s Chaz Tucker, who is undefeated this season. He’s the only undefeated guy in the bracket, but his best wins are likely his two victories over Montorie Bridges who is only the #8 seed. There is also not a lot of bonus point victories from him as things tend to be very close. DeSanto has wrestled Tucker twice, but they were both two years ago while he was still at Drexel and they split those two matches. Again, a fully functioning DeSanto wins this match, so let’s assume that’s the guy we see.

Then DeSanto is likely to see a very familiar face in Seth Gross who has wrestled three times. He’s 1-2, so Gross has to be favored. If DeSanto wants to win, he has to get ahead early, because it’s a nightmare to try to come back against somebody as tricky as Gross. On the opposite side of the bracket, I think Rivera is the clear favorite as his greatest challenger is likely RBY, and he looked definitively better than RBY when they wrestled at the Big Ten Tournament. If DeSanto is in an NCAA Final, all I will predict is chaos.

PREDICTION: Austin DeSanto - National Championship

141 - Max Murin - #7 Seed
The #7 seed seems about as high as they could possibly place Murin, but DAMN, that quadrant is stacked with talent. Even his first round opponent, Salvatore Profaci has beaten the 12 seed and only lost 7-3 to Nick Lee which should definitely be considered a victory. I think Murin wins, but it’s not automatic. Then he gets Mitch McKee, who I weirdly love more than his results would seem to deserve, but he is already 1-1 against Murin this year. They were both close matches, so I think it’s a coin flip.

After that, Nick Lee is likely up, and I can’t see Murin getting past him, although watch out the winner of the Tariq Wilson/Mitch Moore match, as even though Lee is the clear favorite, those guys are not slouches, especially Wilson who finished 3rd at the NCAA Tournament two years ago.

This is why it’s important for Murin to win that McKee match, because falling in to have to win a match just to take on whoever loses to Nick Lee is not a great place to be on the consolation side. Even if he gets past him, there are going to be some tough matches. Sometimes, I swear that Murin has turned a corner and is a threat to anybody, and other times, I just don’t see him getting to any of his offense, and he looks like he did last year. I know he’s better this season, but I don’t know if that’s enough.

PREDICTION: Max Murin - National Championship

149 - Pat Lugo - #1 Seed
I think the bracket sets up very nicely for Lugo. Having O’Connor, Sasso, Brayton Lee, and Kolodzik all on the bottom half is very fortuitous. This is still not an easy road as there are plenty of dangerous opponents on the way, but it’s about as good as Lugo could hope for.

First off, he’s facing the winner of the 32/33 match and I would expect Lugo to pull off a rare bonus point win against an opponent already wrestling their second match of the early session. After that, he’ll either get Parriott from Purdue or DeBlasi from George Mason. I don’t think either guy is a real threat to Lugo. From there it’s Purrinton from Nebraska, who Lugo just beat by major decision at the Big Ten Tournament or more likely, a long-time nemesis, Jarrett Degen of Iowa State. He lost twice to him last year in very close matches but reversed that trend by grinding out a victory this year. I don’t know if Degen is fully healthy, but he was healthy enough to go 3-1 at the Big 12 tournament so he likely isn’t too far off. Lugo should be favored, but my butt cheeks are gonna be clenched for this one.

In the semis, it’s likely to come down between Boo Lewallen, who Lugo surprised with a pin at the Oklahoma State dual meet or Brock Mauller whose name is far scarier than the competition he’s faced this year. He does hold a win over Boo, so I’ll pick Mauller to take it again, but I still like Lugo’s chances to make it to the Finals.

After that, I have zero clue as I went through all the talent on the bottom half of the bracket. If you have a chance, watch basically every match from that bottom half, because, it’s nonstop crazy matches by the second round. I guess I’ll go Matt Kolodzik because he likely would have been the #1 seed had he wrestled a full season. Kolodzik beat Lugo twice last year, but Lugo looks light years ahead of where he was last season. 149 is a total crapshoot; I keep going back and forth every 15 seconds so I’ll be slightly pessimistic as to not jinx things.

PREDICTION: Patricio Lugo - National Championship

157 - Kaleb Young - #8 Seed
Kaleb Young got a gift as the #8 seed as I easily could have seen him ten spots lower than this after he lost his last three matches to less than impressive competition. I don’t know what to think of him at this point. He has just looked sluggish in these last few matches and his offense looks desperate instead of crisp. I don’t think he’ll have trouble in his first round match as Jacob Wright just doesn’t have a big win all year.

Next up is going to be a lot more difficult when he goes up against Arizona State’s Jacori Teemer. Teemer is currently on a ten-match win streak and has seemed to fully shaken off his early season rust. If you would have asked me two weeks ago, I would have said that Young can take him, but he just hasn’t looked right so I’m picking an early exit into the consolation bracket for Young.

This isn’t all bad, as I think he can do some damage on the back half of things, and if things play out how I think, he’ll take on Kendall Coleman, who he is 2-0 against for a shot at being an All-American this year. Kaleb Young’s a grinder, he might not win a title, but I still think he can have an impressive performance.

PREDICTION: Kaleb Young - National Championship

165 - Alex Marinelli - #1 Seed
PREDICTION: Alex Marinelli - National Championship

174 - Michael Kemerer - #2 Seed
PREDICTION: Michael Kemerer - National Championship

184 - Abe Assad - #11 Seed
PREDICTION: Abe Assad - National Championship

197 - Jacob Warner - #6 Seed
PREDICTION: Jacob Warner - National Championship

Heavyweight - Tony Cassioppi - #3 Seed
PREDICTION: Tony Cassioppi - National Championship

Yep, definitely didn’t alter my predictions at all once the tournament got cancelled. This is 100% what would have happened.

Where Iowa Wrestling Could Falter at the B1G Tournament

When you’re the number one team in the nation and overwhelming favorite to win the National Championship, it’s pretty hard to consider yourselves underdogs. Iowa has the depth and top-notch firepower that should let them end their decade-drought of National Titles, but nothing is guaranteed. In fact, even a B1G title isn’t guaranteed as Penn State is right there, always lurking, and with enough high-end talent to terrify even the most confident Hawkeye fans. If everything holds for seeding, Iowa cruises to a B1G Championship, so let’s see where Iowa could be potentially upset at each weight.

125 - Spencer Lee vs. N/A

I’m sorry, but there is nobody who is touching him. He tech falled the number two seed in the first period. Unless he runs a marathon before each match, I doubt anybody is lasting seven minutes with him.

133 - Austin DeSanto vs. Ridge Lovett - Quarterfinals

I don’t think there is an easy match for DeSanto in this thing. The #14 seed, Jordan DeCatur shows flashes of being impressive, and I think he can get a takedown against anybody at this weight. The problem is that after two minutes, he seems to have completely lost any ability to get a takedown or defend one which isn’t an ideal skill-set against the human buzzsaw that is Austin DeSanto. So I guess I should mention Ridge Lovett as well who is very good on top which is DeSanto’s toughest spot. I really don’t think Lovett has the offense to win, but he is going to do everything he can to keep this match low scoring and then try to ride out DeSanto to put pressure on him. I don’t think his defense is good enough to stop the Hawkeye, but he is admittedly not a great matchup. But I still see DeSanto getting a major decision and then going into one of the most exciting matches of the tournament in a rematch against RBY from Penn State in the semis.

141 - Max Murin vs. Mitch McKee - Quarterfinals

I’m like the world’s biggest Mitch McKee fan. I don’t know how it happened, but I have seen that guy look like a million dollars on the mat. Murin got the better of him at the dual, but I think this is a toss-up. The top two guys at this weight seem to be on their on tier, but 3-6 is going to be fascinating to see how things shake out. It wouldn’t be too surprising if these two wrestled each other twice this weekend.

149 - Pat Lugo vs. Brayton Lee - Semifinals

I don’t have a ton of anxiety about this match. Lugo won a close match, but Lee didn’t really come close to scoring on Lugo, and Lugo got an early takedown and controlled the match from there. Lugo is always going to keep things close, but I think he can control this match again.

157 - Kaleb Young vs. Peyton Robb - Quarterfinals

Kaleb Young should be able to handle Peyton Robb, but Robb is dangerous. The guy wrestles tough, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish in the top four at this weight class. They wrestled a close match the first time, but I still think Young is going to come back strong after an upset loss against Oklahoma State.

165 - Alex Marinelli vs. Evan Wick - Semifinals

Can Marinelli get out from under Evan Wick? If he can, he wins. If he can’t, it gets much more interesting. I don’t think Wick has what it takes to get a takedown on Marinelli, but if he gets a ride out, it puts a ton of pressure on Marinelli to win multiple times on his feet. Marinelli has really improved, and I think he beats Wick again in this one to move onto the finals for another fireworks show against Vincenzo.

174 - Michael Kemerer vs. Mark Hall - Finals

Is Labriola slightly concerning for a semifinals match? Yeah, slightly, but I have a hard time seeing anybody but these two in the finals. A part of me is hoping Hall wins this one, because I think it would be very tough for Kemerer to win three times in a row against Hall. There’s a possibility that Kem has his number, but their first match had some insane scrambles, so I’m guessing that’s not the case. Either way, it’s must see TV.

184 - Abe Assad vs. Rocky Jordan - Quarterfinals

Assad basically controlled the Rocky Jordan match the first time around, but Jordan has been improving. Assad may also be improving, but we haven’t seen him for about a month, so it’s kind of tough to say. If Assad is healthy, he should be able to move into the semifinals, and considering how wide open 184 is, it’s not inconceivable to see him in contention for a B1G title.

197 - Jacob Warner vs. Shakur Rasheed - Quarterfinals

If Shakur Rasheed hops in a time machine and becomes 2018 Rasheed, I’m concerned. Barring that, I think Warner is cruising into the semifinals, and I would be pretty damn surprised if he didn’t end up in the finals as I see him avenging his loss to Eric Schultz.

Heavyweight - Tony Cassioppi vs. Trent Hillger - Consolation Finals

Sorry, Gas Tank Gary, but I just don’t see a threat to Cassioppi’s spot until he gets to the consolation side of the bracket. I still think Cassioppi could beat Mason Parris, despite getting pinned in their first match, but Gable Steveson is not going to lose in the semis. Cassioppi beat Hillger in a pretty big upset early on in this season, and with Hillger’s top game, I think this is going to be another close match where I hope Cassioppi can find a way to pull it out.

Iowa looks great this year. Almost too great, so I have to have some pessimism to stop me from getting overly excited about this team. But this week should bring home a B1G Championship, and in two weeks, the Hawkeyes finally get the big one.

Iowa Hawkeyes Wrestling Is Fun

The Iowa Hawkeyes have been known for dominance in wrestling. From 1975-2010 they managed to win 23 NCAA Championships. But even though Iowa has gone through dominant stretches, they have never exactly been a team that would be considered fun. Now I’m a terribly biased Iowa alum, but even I can recognize that you would likely describe the wrestlers as intense psychopaths and would have to be a bit sadistic to consider them a fun team. 

But these Iowa Hawkeyes are different. This isn’t just a team to root for because you’re from Iowa; this is a team that any wrestling fan can root for. We have guys that are aggressive, put up big points and actually seem like they are enjoying themselves every time they step out on the mat. Let’s take a look at who is making this team so well-liked by ranking Iowa’s 10 starters by how much an outsider enjoys them.

10. Austin DeSanto

I don’t want to put DeSanto here, but this is the easiest choice. He is a classic example of a guy you would love to have on your side but would absolutely despise him if he was wrestling against your team. He used to be a total psychopath at Drexel, then became a moderate psychopath during his first year at Iowa, and now he’s a fairly well-behaved guy at this point. People are still going to shit all over him because of antics early on in his career, and even I had a major issue with going for a kimura on Stevan Micic at the NCAA Championships his freshman year, but young people do stupid stuff. I certainly did. And although people are going to find a reason to hate him for everything after the whistle, he’s phenomenal to watch as he puts on a relentless pace with endless energy. But from an outsider’s perspective, I get it why there is nobody they would want to see lose more than DeSanto. 

9. Jacob Warner

Jacob Warner is completely inoffensive. But I guarantee people watch him and say that he sucks because he has lackadaisical offense in 90% of his matches. I guarantee rival fans think that he is going to get upset in the tournament and not even be an All-American. He will become an AA, and he will likely do it with incredibly frustrating matches that are never separated by more than two points.

8. Pat Lugo

Where Warner has flashed big point potential, Lugo is a very safe wrestler who keeps all of his matches close. He’s nearly impossible to score on, so it works for the most part, but it never really leads to fireworks. As a biased observer, his matches can be more exciting when watching some of the scrambles, but even a total homer like me is often craving more aggressive offense from Lugo.

7. Kaleb Young

The most irritating thing about Young isn’t his fault. He’s from Punxsutawney, PA where Punxsutawney Phil will let us know whether winter is coming to an end by seeing his shadow is there. This gets mentioned every match that he’s in. Not only that, it gets mentioned in the first period, because announcers cannot help themselves. Actually, outsiders probably aren’t watching that much Kaleb Young where this becomes irritating, so they may find it more endearing. Plus, he’s a total grinder who never showboats or really shows much emotion in any way.  

6. Abe Assad

I would say Assad is a blank canvas. I can’t imagine anyone disliking him, but I also can’t imagine anybody being a huge fan of his either. In his two most important varsity matches this season, against Taylor Venz and Aaron Brooks, he did go for upper body throws, which was exciting, but it didn’t work either time, which was less exciting. Still, early signs are pointing to Assad being a guy who goes big, but occasionally goes home.

5. Michael Kemerer

Kemerer is an incredibly exciting wrestler who you can always count on going hard for seven minutes. Outside of that, he seems completely inoffensive; he’s just a guy who works hard and has a positive attitude without ever showing anybody up on the mat. I have trouble imagining any wrestling fan disliking him beyond, “He wrestles for that team, and I cheer for this team.”

4. Tony Cassioppi

A big smiley heavyweight who is always looking to pin his opponents. What’s not to love?

3. Alex Marinelli

This was probably the toughest guy to rank. When he’s on the mat, he seems like a mean SOB. I could see that turning people off. But he is always charging forward, and the guy just refuses to back down which has led to some incredibly exciting matches with Vincenzo Joseph. Also, he lost his best friend, Eli Stickley, a fellow college wrestler at Wisconsin, in a car accident. So, like what kind of monster would hate this man? I think people want Marinelli to do good, but few outsiders are pulling for him to do great. I had him anywhere from 1-5, so splitting the difference seemed like the best option.

2. Max Murin

Chicken and Rice Casserole? Yes, please! Wake up with Good Murin America! hosted by Max Murin and Tony Cassioppi. pic.twitter.com/joC4INHyIz

— Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) December 26, 2019

1. Spencer Lee

He’s so good that even rival fans have to appreciate his greatness. It’s incredible that we’re almost three fourths of the way through his career, because it feels like he’s barely been here. He didn’t join the varsity squad until halfway through his freshman season, he’s had some nicks where he took some meets off in his sophomore year and missed more to train to qualify for the Olympic Trials this season. Seeing a wrestler this great is a treat, and somehow, there’s only a little more than a year seeing him compete in college, so just sit back and enjoy everything this guy brings to the table. Seeing something this great never gets boring.

Is Pulling Abe Assad's Redshirt a Good Decision?

After Midlands, I boldly declared that there was no way that the Iowa Hawkeyes were going to pull Abe Assad’s redshirt to take over the spot at 184 pounds. The Hawkeyes promptly pulled Assad’s redshirt for the next meet and he went 2-0 in his debut weekend. That’s good, but it’s too early to tell whether this decision made sense.

Now, I do not have a source for the inner workings of that wrestling room so I need to recognize a few things that I have no idea about. First off, how good has Abe Assad looked in the practice room compared to Cash Wilcke and Nelson Brands? If he’s been putting it on them in practice, then it’s not the craziest idea that he should be starting immediately. Also, did Assad want his redshirt pulled? He may want to go four hard years and be done with it, or he may think that taking a redshirt later on is the best thing for him. He may not think about either of those things, but he sees that Iowa could win a National Championship for the first time in a decade, and he wants to be one of the members that helps the team accomplish that. I can definitely understand the appeal of being a starter for a National Championship team, so I could totally understand that from Assad’s perspective.

But it seems incredibly likely that Assad will be better at the 2024 National Championships than he will be at the 2020 National Championships. So was it a good decision to sacrifice a better year later for a good year now?

I didn’t think the move would happen, partially because I didn’t like the idea of it. I think Cash Wilcke has proven that he’s good enough to be a blood round guy (Round of 12). He might be lower and get eliminated a little earlier or a little higher and be a low-level All-American. Can we really expect any more from Abe Assad? 

So far, he’s 17-3 this season, but his competition has been lacking for most of the season. His early season losses were to a wrestler from Grand View and a guy redshirting at Iowa State who is not an elite recruit. Even with subpar competition, he wasn’t blowing a lot of guys out of the water. Although the competition took a jump up at the Midlands, Assad won two of those matches in sudden victory so it was not a dominant performance. He’s likely going to be having a lot of close matches, and as a true freshman, he may be getting better as the season goes on.

He’s currently ranked ninth, and looking through that list of the eight guys ahead of him, it’s going to be really tough for him to break through. I think he has to All-American to definitively say it was a good decision. 

I may not totally agree with it, but I get it, and if Iowa is at the top of the podium at the end of the National Championships, I won’t be complaining about a redshirt. 

I’ll be too busy celebrating.