Monday, April 6, 2015

A Review of My 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft - Part 3

Last week, we had our annual fantasy baseball draft, and it sure was a doozy. I am going to break it down round-by-round in three separate parts (this is part two), but before we get started, I have given each team a nickname based on the jobber that they most represent. Here are my explanations.

Norman Smiley – Because my dance moves are sick.
Vinnie Vegas - This guy is a gambler, and I respect that.
3 Count - This guy looked like a boy band member in high school, so this is fitting.
Eugene - Idiot who tries to take other people's gimmicks, but he can't pull it off.
LA Gore - If you told me LA Gore was his real Dad, it would explain so much. He ruined his family line of being man enough to wear cutoff jean shorts.
Dr. Isaac Yankem, D.D.S. - I have no idea who this clown is, but somebody else referred to him as "a doctor, but not a real doctor." That describes dentists pretty well.
Bob Backlund - Crafty, sometimes unintelligible, but shockingly effective as he kicked ass in the 2014 season.
El Dandy - He's Mexican, and Bret Hart let us know that he should not be underestimated.
Zack Ryder - Had a moment of glory, but is now firmly stuck in jobber territory.
GI Bro - He thinks he's like Booker T, but he's just a cheap knockoff.
Viscera - Large and sexually charged. Has glasses that are referred to as "The Big Nasties."
Kerwin White - Shockingly good at golf.
You can check out the first part here, while part two is here, but now it is time for part three.

Round: 17 (Keepers: Nolan Arenado)
(193) Norman Smiley - Jonathan Papelbon RP
(194) Vinnie Vegas - Adam Eaton CF
(195) 3 Count - Carlos Beltran RF
(196) Eugene - Huston Street RP
(197) LA Gore - R.A. Dickey SP
(198) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Scooter Gennett 2B
(199) Bob Backlund - Drew Smyly SP
(200) El Dandy - Denard Span CF
(201) Zack Ryder - Travis d'Arnaud C
(202) GI Bro - Nolan Arenado 3B
(203) Viscera - Arismendy Alcantara 2B
(204) Kerwin White - Chris Tillman SP
Best Pick: Adam Eaton
The only question with Eaton is health, and although I think he may miss some time with a small injury, I think he can play 140 games and provide value in a lot of different ways for a fantasy team. I could also see his stolen base numbers trending upwards this year to provide even more value.

Worst Pick: Denard Span
Already hurt this year, and he's not a guy with a great upside to begin with, so he's probably the worst of this round, but we are definitely reaching the point where the worsts are all that terrible.

My Pick: Jonathan Papelbon
This was one of my least confident picks, but at this point, getting a sure thing is probably a solid decision. He was incredibly undervalued, and although Papelbon has the potential to be traded, he will almost certainly take over the closer's role for whoever he is traded to. I mean, is there any closer more established than Papelbon at this point? The guy stays healthy and produces. It's my least risky pick, which does inevitably mean that he will be injured or ineffective this year.

Round: 18 (Keepers: Anthony Rendon)
(205) Kerwin White - Taijuan Walker SP
(206) Viscera - Wilin Rosario C
(207) GI Bro - Andrelton Simmons SS
(208) Zack Ryder - Marlon Byrd RF
(209) El Dandy - Brandon Belt 1B
(210) Bob Backlund - Anthony Rendon 2B
(211) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Aramis Ramirez 3B
(212) LA Gore - Dalton Pompey CF
(213) Eugene - Mike Napoli 1B
(214) 3 Count - Yasmani Grandal C
(215) Vinnie Vegas - Aaron Sanchez SP
(216) Norman Smiley - Neftali Feliz RP
Best Pick: Yasmani Grandal
This one made my jaw drop, as I had every intention of making Yasmani Grandal my catcher. I looked over the other teams and saw that all but one other team had a catcher. I figured I was safe, and that I could snag Grandal with no issues. I mean, why would anyone take a backup catcher? Well, this stupid asshole from 3 Count thought he needed two catchers. Anyway, as for Grandal the player, he hit really well in the minors and has shown flashes in the majors. Getting out of Petco and having consistent playing time will be essential for him, and I would not be surprised to see him as a top-5 catcher this year.

Worst Pick: Marlon Byrd
Quick, name who Marlon Byrd plays for. Waiting...well, I hope you answered correctly, because I have no idea. I'll guess the Phillies or Royals, but you could convince me it is the Mets. Anyway, Byrd is very old, and he probably isn't going to be that great this year. Hence, worst pick of the round.

My Pick: Neftali Feliz
I always like to have three closers, so I was very happy that Feliz fell all the way back around to me. I could have waited if he wasn't there, but Feliz can be an absolute stud reliever, so the value was too good to pass up.

Round: 19 (Keepers: George Springer)
(217) Norman Smiley - Kevin Gausman SP
(218) Vinnie Vegas - Kyle Hendricks SP
(219) 3 Count - Scott Kazmir SP
(220) Eugene - Derek Holland SP
(221) LA Gore - Matt Garza SP
(222) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - John Lackey SP
(223) Bob Backlund - Danny Duffy SP
(224) El Dandy - Michael Morse 1B
(225) Zack Ryder - Jesse Hahn SP
(226) GI Bro - Steven Souza RF
(227) Viscera - Desmond Jennings CF
(228) Kerwin White - George Springer RF
Best Pick: Steven Souza
I don't know what to think of Steven Souza. He's super old for a prospect, but a lot of the projection systems love him, and the Rays seem to agree as they traded a lot to get him. He might be really valuable this year. Yes, he could be terrible, but it's the 19th round, just drop him and add another outfielder at that point.

Worst Pick: Kyle Hendricks
Vinnie Vegas loves him some Cubbies. Kyle Hendricks reached his ceiling last year, and good for him, but I have a feeling his floor is far lower than the gambler would like it to be. Even with his ceiling, he doesn't get strikeouts, so he's not likely to provide a ton of value this year. I will be surprised if Hendricks is still on his team in May.

My Pick: Kevin Gausman
I was strongly considering Gausman in the 16th/17th rounds but decided to get the closer who had dropped quite a bit, as I had Gausman and Tillman rated as my top two guys on the board, and a lot of other starters that I still liked if they were both taken. Tillman did get taken, but I like Gausman's upside. If he cuts loose this year, he can live up to his prospect hype and become a top guy.

Round: 20 (Keepers: Michael Brantley)
(229) Kerwin White - Joaquin Benoit RP
(230) Viscera - Brian McCann C
(231) GI Bro - Nathan Eovaldi SP
(232) Zack Ryder - Ryan Howard 1B
(233) El Dandy - Coco Crisp CF
(234) Bob Backlund - T.J. House SP
(235) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Matt Shoemaker SP
(236) LA Gore - Carl Crawford LF
(237) Eugene - Hector Rondon RP
(238) 3 Count - Michael Brantley LF
(239) Vinnie Vegas - Josh Hamilton LF
(240) Norman Smiley - Matt Moore SP
Best Pick: Nathan Eovaldi
Eovaldi is learning a split to add to his repertoire, and since he already has velocity in abundance, this could be exactly what he needs to take a big step forward this season. He flashed plenty last year, so the natural maturation should help him be worthy of this pick, but the extra pitch provides nice upside for him.

Worst Pick: Matt Shoemaker
He's already been released, so that is a good sign that this was not a very good pick. Had he not been released, it would have been a tossup between Shoemaker and Hamilton who is obviously got a lot of question marks around him at the moment.

My Pick: Matt Moore
He's an injury stash. We have three DL spots, so I might as well use them. Also, my last three picks were all predetermined, as I needed a shortstop since ESPN didn't recognize Bogaerts as a part of my team yet, I needed a catcher, and I had Gregory Polanco as a keeper. So, it was Matt Moore time. Hopefully he comes back better than ever.

Round: 21 (Keepers: Phil Hughes/Dee Gordon)
(241) Norman Smiley - Brandon McCarthy SP
(242) Vinnie Vegas - Addison Russell SS
(243) 3 Count - Rajai Davis LF
(244) Eugene - Brett Lawrie 3B
(245) LA Gore - Torii Hunter RF
(246) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Adam Lind 1B
(247) Bob Backlund - Avisail Garcia RF
(248) El Dandy - Wade Davis RP
(249) Zack Ryder - Phil Hughes SP
(250) GI Bro - Kennys Vargas DH
(251) Viscera - Addison Reed RP
(252) Kerwin White - Dee Gordon 2B
Best Pick: Brett Lawrie
I'm never going to stop believing in Brett Lawrie, so maybe this is the year he puts the pieces back together. Plus, Billy Beane agrees, so the Moneyball community needs this.

Worst Pick: Addison Russell
Vinnie Vegas has picked every Cubs player possible, but it got ridiculous at this point. You could make the argument that Russell has keeper potential, but even if everything went right for Russell, it would still take an injury to a big leaguer for them to call him up this year. The benefit is minimal, and the cost of a lack of roster flexibility isn't worth it.

My Pick: Brandon McCarthy
Seems like a solid pick. He had some bad luck last year but finally put it together after going to the Yankees. Now he is back in the NL, so as long as he can stay healthy, he should be good to put up solid fantasy numbers this year.

Round: 22 (Keepers: Corey Kluber/Matt Harvey)
(253) Kerwin White - Francisco Rodriguez RP
(254) Viscera - Chase Headley 3B
(255) GI Bro - Sean Doolittle RP
(256) Zack Ryder - Santiago Casilla RP
(257) El Dandy - Andrew Miller RP
(258) Bob Backlund - Corey Kluber SP
(259) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Tanner Roark SP
(260) LA Gore - Mike Fiers SP
(261) Eugene - Matt Harvey SP
(262) 3 Count - Aaron Hill 2B
(263) Vinnie Vegas - Carlos Rodon SP
(264) Norman Smiley - Wilson Ramos C
Best Pick: Chase Headley
I love Headley this year, and had I not already gotten two third basemen early in the draft, I would have gone hard after Headley, probably two rounds before he was actually taken. I think Headley puts it together for the Yankees and gets his power numbers back in the 20-25 range and hits around .280.

Worst Pick: Tanner Roark
He is the odd man out in the Nationals rotation, so unless we add the long relief appearance category, he's probably not going to be too useful in a fantasy context.

My Pick: Wilson Ramos
Wieters, Zunino, and Ramos were all there for me still. I went with Ramos, as I think he can be around the 10th best catcher in fantasy. He's nothing special, so if he fails, I can get rid of him with limited consequences, but if he's solid, his value won't be much different than the third or fourth ranked catcher.

Round: 23 (Keepers: Gregory Polanco/Javier Baez)
(265) Norman Smiley - Gregory Polanco RF
(266) Vinnie Vegas - Javier Baez SS
(267) 3 Count - Jung Ho Kang SS
(268) Eugene - Josh Reddick RF
(269) LA Gore - Ervin Santana SP
(270) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Joe Nathan RP
(271) Bob Backlund - Tyler Clippard RP
(272) El Dandy - Byron Buxton CF
(273) Zack Ryder - Jon Gray SP
(274) GI Bro - Trevor Bauer SP
(275) Viscera - Dustin Ackley LF
(276) Kerwin White - Alex Rodriguez 3B
Best Pick: Trevor Bauer
He is still young and after taking some major steps backwards early in his development, he has started to progress forward. How much further he can go is a question, but he'll definitely get his chance to make an impact (And fun note: He was dropped before the season started).

Worst Pick: Byron Buxton
He barely played last year, which means his best experience was dominating low-A two years ago. He might still only start in High-A, so I am still putting his ETA as late-2016, and there would be nothing wrong if he took even longer than that.

My Pick: Gregory Polanco
Polanco made sense as a keeper. He struggled after a hot start in the majors last year, so if he sucks, he can easily be dropped, but he has big time potential, so I made a trade last season to acquire his rights. I'm hoping it pays off.

Round: 24
(277) Kerwin White - Yu Darvish SP
(278) Viscera - Brad Boxberger RP
(279) GI Bro - Alex Guerrero 2B
(280) Zack Ryder - Matt Wieters C
(281) El Dandy - Tony Watson RP
(282) Bob Backlund - Jason Hammel SP
(283) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Brandon Phillips 2B
(284) LA Gore - Carlos Martinez SP
(285) Eugene - Clay Buchholz SP
(286) 3 Count - Christian Bethancourt C
(287) Vinnie Vegas - Nick Castellanos 3B
(288) Norman Smiley - Chris Owings SS
Best Pick: Yu Darvish
He can be stashed on the DL the entire year, and then he gets him for a 22nd round pick. Really, what's the difference between a 24th round pick and a free agent? With Yu getting his surgery a little later than Harvey, it may not pay off to that extent, but it should still be a valuable addition considering that Jose Fernandez went in the 10th and will be coming back later this season than Yu next year.

Worst Pick: Christian Bethancourt
It's the second-to-last round, so I honestly wasn't sure if some of these were joke picks. Are Brad Boxberger and Tony Watson real people or are they made up? It's impossible to know. Still, getting a second third catcher who is known for his fielding and not hitting seems like a slight waste of a pick. Three catchers...I...I just...I just can't even fathom the thinking behind that.

My Pick: Chris Owings
I had no choice but to pick Chris Owings, and I actually really like him, but I have already dropped him for Brett Cecil, who was somehow not even drafted, to give me a fourth closer.

Round: 25
(289) Vinnie Vegas - Wade Miley SP
(290) Vinnie Vegas - Jake McGee RP
(291) 3 Count - Mark Teixeira 1B
(292) Eugene - Maikel Franco 3B
(293) LA Gore - Daisuke Matsuzaka SP
(294) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Ken Giles RP
(295) Bob Backlund - Henderson Alvarez SP
(296) El Dandy - J.J. Hardy SS
(297) Zack Ryder - Miguel Sano 3B
(298) GI Bro - Micah Johnson 2B
(299) Viscera - Jarred Cosart SP
(300) Bob Backlund - Mike Zunino C
Best Pick: Jake McGee
Because closers are incredibly undervalued. Also, shout out to Mike Zunino who fell to the final pick in the draft, and he'll probably outproduce Russell Martin.

Worst Pick: Maikel Franco
Yo, are we sure Franco is even good? I'm almost positive that he's not good. So drafting him and stashing him until a callup seems like a bad idea for a bad player. I bet he's dropped before April 15th.

My Pick: Nobody
I don't waste my time in the 25th round with the rest of these jobbers.

So, after breaking it down, one thing is perfectly clear, my team is going to cruise to a championship. I doubt I'll lose a single matchup this year. As for the rest, well, here's what the numbers of the best and worst picks say:

Bob Backlund 3
Vinnie Vegas 6-3=3
Viscera 3-1=2
Kerwin White 3-2=1
Eugene 2-1=1
GI Bro 2-2=0
Dr. Isaac Yankem, D.D.S. 2-3=-1
3 Count 2-4=-2
Zack Ryder 1-3=-2
El Dandy -3
LA Gore -3

I guess the most interesting thing about these results are that I had at least three thoughts on every team, but I had the most thoughts, by far, on Vinnie Vegas. This doesn't surprise me, as I always like his teams, and they always finish in 10th-12th place, so shoutout to Mr. Vegas for taking crappy players before I can. 

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