A Review of My 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft - Part 3

Last week, we had our annual fantasy baseball draft, and it sure was a doozy. I am going to break it down round-by-round in three separate parts (this is part two), but before we get started, I have given each team a nickname based on the jobber that they most represent. Here are my explanations.

Norman Smiley – Because my dance moves are sick.
Vinnie Vegas - This guy is a gambler, and I respect that.
3 Count - This guy looked like a boy band member in high school, so this is fitting.
Eugene - Idiot who tries to take other people's gimmicks, but he can't pull it off.
LA Gore - If you told me LA Gore was his real Dad, it would explain so much. He ruined his family line of being man enough to wear cutoff jean shorts.
Dr. Isaac Yankem, D.D.S. - I have no idea who this clown is, but somebody else referred to him as "a doctor, but not a real doctor." That describes dentists pretty well.
Bob Backlund - Crafty, sometimes unintelligible, but shockingly effective as he kicked ass in the 2014 season.
El Dandy - He's Mexican, and Bret Hart let us know that he should not be underestimated.
Zack Ryder - Had a moment of glory, but is now firmly stuck in jobber territory.
GI Bro - He thinks he's like Booker T, but he's just a cheap knockoff.
Viscera - Large and sexually charged. Has glasses that are referred to as "The Big Nasties."
Kerwin White - Shockingly good at golf.You can check out the first part here, while part two is here, but now it is time for part three.

Round: 17 (Keepers: Nolan Arenado)
(193) Norman Smiley - Jonathan Papelbon RP
(194) Vinnie Vegas - Adam Eaton CF
(195) 3 Count - Carlos Beltran RF
(196) Eugene - Huston Street RP
(197) LA Gore - R.A. Dickey SP
(198) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Scooter Gennett 2B
(199) Bob Backlund - Drew Smyly SP
(200) El Dandy - Denard Span CF
(201) Zack Ryder - Travis d'Arnaud C
(202) GI Bro - Nolan Arenado 3B
(203) Viscera - Arismendy Alcantara 2B
(204) Kerwin White - Chris Tillman SP
Best Pick: Adam Eaton
The only question with Eaton is health, and although I think he may miss some time with a small injury, I think he can play 140 games and provide value in a lot of different ways for a fantasy team. I could also see his stolen base numbers trending upwards this year to provide even more value.

Worst Pick: Denard Span
Already hurt this year, and he's not a guy with a great upside to begin with, so he's probably the worst of this round, but we are definitely reaching the point where the worsts are all that terrible.

My Pick: Jonathan Papelbon
This was one of my least confident picks, but at this point, getting a sure thing is probably a solid decision. He was incredibly undervalued, and although Papelbon has the potential to be traded, he will almost certainly take over the closer's role for whoever he is traded to. I mean, is there any closer more established than Papelbon at this point? The guy stays healthy and produces. It's my least risky pick, which does inevitably mean that he will be injured or ineffective this year.

Round: 18 (Keepers: Anthony Rendon)
(205) Kerwin White - Taijuan Walker SP
(206) Viscera - Wilin Rosario C
(207) GI Bro - Andrelton Simmons SS
(208) Zack Ryder - Marlon Byrd RF
(209) El Dandy - Brandon Belt 1B
(210) Bob Backlund - Anthony Rendon 2B
(211) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Aramis Ramirez 3B
(212) LA Gore - Dalton Pompey CF
(213) Eugene - Mike Napoli 1B
(214) 3 Count - Yasmani Grandal C
(215) Vinnie Vegas - Aaron Sanchez SP
(216) Norman Smiley - Neftali Feliz RP
Best Pick: Yasmani Grandal
This one made my jaw drop, as I had every intention of making Yasmani Grandal my catcher. I looked over the other teams and saw that all but one other team had a catcher. I figured I was safe, and that I could snag Grandal with no issues. I mean, why would anyone take a backup catcher? Well, this stupid asshole from 3 Count thought he needed two catchers. Anyway, as for Grandal the player, he hit really well in the minors and has shown flashes in the majors. Getting out of Petco and having consistent playing time will be essential for him, and I would not be surprised to see him as a top-5 catcher this year.

Worst Pick: Marlon Byrd
Quick, name who Marlon Byrd plays for. Waiting...well, I hope you answered correctly, because I have no idea. I'll guess the Phillies or Royals, but you could convince me it is the Mets. Anyway, Byrd is very old, and he probably isn't going to be that great this year. Hence, worst pick of the round.

My Pick: Neftali Feliz
I always like to have three closers, so I was very happy that Feliz fell all the way back around to me. I could have waited if he wasn't there, but Feliz can be an absolute stud reliever, so the value was too good to pass up.

Round: 19 (Keepers: George Springer)
(217) Norman Smiley - Kevin Gausman SP
(218) Vinnie Vegas - Kyle Hendricks SP
(219) 3 Count - Scott Kazmir SP
(220) Eugene - Derek Holland SP
(221) LA Gore - Matt Garza SP
(222) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - John Lackey SP
(223) Bob Backlund - Danny Duffy SP
(224) El Dandy - Michael Morse 1B
(225) Zack Ryder - Jesse Hahn SP
(226) GI Bro - Steven Souza RF
(227) Viscera - Desmond Jennings CF
(228) Kerwin White - George Springer RF
Best Pick: Steven Souza
I don't know what to think of Steven Souza. He's super old for a prospect, but a lot of the projection systems love him, and the Rays seem to agree as they traded a lot to get him. He might be really valuable this year. Yes, he could be terrible, but it's the 19th round, just drop him and add another outfielder at that point.

Worst Pick: Kyle Hendricks
Vinnie Vegas loves him some Cubbies. Kyle Hendricks reached his ceiling last year, and good for him, but I have a feeling his floor is far lower than the gambler would like it to be. Even with his ceiling, he doesn't get strikeouts, so he's not likely to provide a ton of value this year. I will be surprised if Hendricks is still on his team in May.

My Pick: Kevin Gausman
I was strongly considering Gausman in the 16th/17th rounds but decided to get the closer who had dropped quite a bit, as I had Gausman and Tillman rated as my top two guys on the board, and a lot of other starters that I still liked if they were both taken. Tillman did get taken, but I like Gausman's upside. If he cuts loose this year, he can live up to his prospect hype and become a top guy.

Round: 20 (Keepers: Michael Brantley)
(229) Kerwin White - Joaquin Benoit RP
(230) Viscera - Brian McCann C
(231) GI Bro - Nathan Eovaldi SP
(232) Zack Ryder - Ryan Howard 1B
(233) El Dandy - Coco Crisp CF
(234) Bob Backlund - T.J. House SP
(235) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Matt Shoemaker SP
(236) LA Gore - Carl Crawford LF
(237) Eugene - Hector Rondon RP
(238) 3 Count - Michael Brantley LF
(239) Vinnie Vegas - Josh Hamilton LF
(240) Norman Smiley - Matt Moore SP
Best Pick: Nathan Eovaldi
Eovaldi is learning a split to add to his repertoire, and since he already has velocity in abundance, this could be exactly what he needs to take a big step forward this season. He flashed plenty last year, so the natural maturation should help him be worthy of this pick, but the extra pitch provides nice upside for him.

Worst Pick: Matt Shoemaker
He's already been released, so that is a good sign that this was not a very good pick. Had he not been released, it would have been a tossup between Shoemaker and Hamilton who is obviously got a lot of question marks around him at the moment.

My Pick: Matt Moore
He's an injury stash. We have three DL spots, so I might as well use them. Also, my last three picks were all predetermined, as I needed a shortstop since ESPN didn't recognize Bogaerts as a part of my team yet, I needed a catcher, and I had Gregory Polanco as a keeper. So, it was Matt Moore time. Hopefully he comes back better than ever.

Round: 21 (Keepers: Phil Hughes/Dee Gordon)
(241) Norman Smiley - Brandon McCarthy SP
(242) Vinnie Vegas - Addison Russell SS
(243) 3 Count - Rajai Davis LF
(244) Eugene - Brett Lawrie 3B
(245) LA Gore - Torii Hunter RF
(246) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Adam Lind 1B
(247) Bob Backlund - Avisail Garcia RF
(248) El Dandy - Wade Davis RP
(249) Zack Ryder - Phil Hughes SP
(250) GI Bro - Kennys Vargas DH
(251) Viscera - Addison Reed RP
(252) Kerwin White - Dee Gordon 2B
Best Pick: Brett Lawrie
I'm never going to stop believing in Brett Lawrie, so maybe this is the year he puts the pieces back together. Plus, Billy Beane agrees, so the Moneyball community needs this.

Worst Pick: Addison Russell
Vinnie Vegas has picked every Cubs player possible, but it got ridiculous at this point. You could make the argument that Russell has keeper potential, but even if everything went right for Russell, it would still take an injury to a big leaguer for them to call him up this year. The benefit is minimal, and the cost of a lack of roster flexibility isn't worth it.

My Pick: Brandon McCarthy
Seems like a solid pick. He had some bad luck last year but finally put it together after going to the Yankees. Now he is back in the NL, so as long as he can stay healthy, he should be good to put up solid fantasy numbers this year.

Round: 22 (Keepers: Corey Kluber/Matt Harvey)
(253) Kerwin White - Francisco Rodriguez RP
(254) Viscera - Chase Headley 3B
(255) GI Bro - Sean Doolittle RP
(256) Zack Ryder - Santiago Casilla RP
(257) El Dandy - Andrew Miller RP
(258) Bob Backlund - Corey Kluber SP
(259) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Tanner Roark SP
(260) LA Gore - Mike Fiers SP
(261) Eugene - Matt Harvey SP
(262) 3 Count - Aaron Hill 2B
(263) Vinnie Vegas - Carlos Rodon SP
(264) Norman Smiley - Wilson Ramos C
Best Pick: Chase Headley
I love Headley this year, and had I not already gotten two third basemen early in the draft, I would have gone hard after Headley, probably two rounds before he was actually taken. I think Headley puts it together for the Yankees and gets his power numbers back in the 20-25 range and hits around .280.

Worst Pick: Tanner Roark
He is the odd man out in the Nationals rotation, so unless we add the long relief appearance category, he's probably not going to be too useful in a fantasy context.

My Pick: Wilson Ramos
Wieters, Zunino, and Ramos were all there for me still. I went with Ramos, as I think he can be around the 10th best catcher in fantasy. He's nothing special, so if he fails, I can get rid of him with limited consequences, but if he's solid, his value won't be much different than the third or fourth ranked catcher.

Round: 23 (Keepers: Gregory Polanco/Javier Baez)
(265) Norman Smiley - Gregory Polanco RF
(266) Vinnie Vegas - Javier Baez SS
(267) 3 Count - Jung Ho Kang SS
(268) Eugene - Josh Reddick RF
(269) LA Gore - Ervin Santana SP
(270) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Joe Nathan RP
(271) Bob Backlund - Tyler Clippard RP
(272) El Dandy - Byron Buxton CF
(273) Zack Ryder - Jon Gray SP
(274) GI Bro - Trevor Bauer SP
(275) Viscera - Dustin Ackley LF
(276) Kerwin White - Alex Rodriguez 3B
Best Pick: Trevor Bauer
He is still young and after taking some major steps backwards early in his development, he has started to progress forward. How much further he can go is a question, but he'll definitely get his chance to make an impact (And fun note: He was dropped before the season started).

Worst Pick: Byron Buxton
He barely played last year, which means his best experience was dominating low-A two years ago. He might still only start in High-A, so I am still putting his ETA as late-2016, and there would be nothing wrong if he took even longer than that.

My Pick: Gregory Polanco
Polanco made sense as a keeper. He struggled after a hot start in the majors last year, so if he sucks, he can easily be dropped, but he has big time potential, so I made a trade last season to acquire his rights. I'm hoping it pays off.

Round: 24
(277) Kerwin White - Yu Darvish SP
(278) Viscera - Brad Boxberger RP
(279) GI Bro - Alex Guerrero 2B
(280) Zack Ryder - Matt Wieters C
(281) El Dandy - Tony Watson RP
(282) Bob Backlund - Jason Hammel SP
(283) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Brandon Phillips 2B
(284) LA Gore - Carlos Martinez SP
(285) Eugene - Clay Buchholz SP
(286) 3 Count - Christian Bethancourt C
(287) Vinnie Vegas - Nick Castellanos 3B
(288) Norman Smiley - Chris Owings SS
Best Pick: Yu Darvish
He can be stashed on the DL the entire year, and then he gets him for a 22nd round pick. Really, what's the difference between a 24th round pick and a free agent? With Yu getting his surgery a little later than Harvey, it may not pay off to that extent, but it should still be a valuable addition considering that Jose Fernandez went in the 10th and will be coming back later this season than Yu next year.

Worst Pick: Christian Bethancourt
It's the second-to-last round, so I honestly wasn't sure if some of these were joke picks. Are Brad Boxberger and Tony Watson real people or are they made up? It's impossible to know. Still, getting a second third catcher who is known for his fielding and not hitting seems like a slight waste of a pick. Three catchers...I...I just...I just can't even fathom the thinking behind that.

My Pick: Chris Owings
I had no choice but to pick Chris Owings, and I actually really like him, but I have already dropped him for Brett Cecil, who was somehow not even drafted, to give me a fourth closer.

Round: 25
(289) Vinnie Vegas - Wade Miley SP
(290) Vinnie Vegas - Jake McGee RP
(291) 3 Count - Mark Teixeira 1B
(292) Eugene - Maikel Franco 3B
(293) LA Gore - Daisuke Matsuzaka SP
(294) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Ken Giles RP
(295) Bob Backlund - Henderson Alvarez SP
(296) El Dandy - J.J. Hardy SS
(297) Zack Ryder - Miguel Sano 3B
(298) GI Bro - Micah Johnson 2B
(299) Viscera - Jarred Cosart SP
(300) Bob Backlund - Mike Zunino C
Best Pick: Jake McGee
Because closers are incredibly undervalued. Also, shout out to Mike Zunino who fell to the final pick in the draft, and he'll probably outproduce Russell Martin.

Worst Pick: Maikel Franco
Yo, are we sure Franco is even good? I'm almost positive that he's not good. So drafting him and stashing him until a callup seems like a bad idea for a bad player. I bet he's dropped before April 15th.

My Pick: Nobody
I don't waste my time in the 25th round with the rest of these jobbers.

So, after breaking it down, one thing is perfectly clear, my team is going to cruise to a championship. I doubt I'll lose a single matchup this year. As for the rest, well, here's what the numbers of the best and worst picks say:

Bob Backlund 3
Vinnie Vegas 6-3=3
Viscera 3-1=2
Kerwin White 3-2=1
Eugene 2-1=1
GI Bro 2-2=0
Dr. Isaac Yankem, D.D.S. 2-3=-1
3 Count 2-4=-2
Zack Ryder 1-3=-2
El Dandy -3
LA Gore -3

I guess the most interesting thing about these results are that I had at least three thoughts on every team, but I had the most thoughts, by far, on Vinnie Vegas. This doesn't surprise me, as I always like his teams, and they always finish in 10th-12th place, so shoutout to Mr. Vegas for taking crappy players before I can. 

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Two

We last left off this story right after the draft. A lot of people believe that a strong draft is the way to build a championship team. I believe that the draft is the first chapter of a long book, and I will trade my mother if I think I can get good value.

So the first thing that I did after the draft was get myself a real shortstop and got Chris Owings. I also took advantage of 3 DL spots, so I could add Derek Holland and pick up Tanner Scheppers to start for my team on Opening Day. I added Tyler Skaggs and immediately dropped him after his first start. So, yeah, my early pickups did not pay off, but the 25 pickups didn't start until halfway through week one, so I was still fine. I did manage to pickup Nate Eovaldi early on who had some good moments before falling apart in the second half, but he would stay with my team for a very long time.

Halfway through the second week of the season, I was convinced that Ryan Braun was not going to be healthy enough to tap into his power potential and began my efforts to trade him. It would take me nearly two months to trade him, but it would be worth it when it finally happened.

Anyway, things were going shockingly well for my team in the standings. Nate Eovaldi and Chris Tillman helped lead my pitching and carry the team to victory in Week 1. After that, both Jose Abreu and Justin Upton had four home runs to help my offense carry me to a victory in Week 2. In Week 3, BJ Upton's three steals and multi-homer weeks from Votto, Moustakas, and Braun helped me enough to pull off a tie. In Week 4, Jose Abreu hit five home runs, and Chris Carter added three in what may have been his only valuable week during the first half of the season. After the first month, I was 3-0-1.

I also wisely Brandon McCarthy twice in this span, but don't worry, I would drop him before he actually got things turned around and started dominating. I did pick up Hector Rondon who solidified my relievers and also Drew Hutchsion who had some nice moments throughout the year. Unfortunately, my luck was about to run out.

In Week 5, my offense completely shit the bed, and my pitching wasn't much better. In Week 6, we got a lot of strikeouts and home runs but didn't do much else for another loss. In Week 7, Hutchison, Tillman, and Tanaka all threw complete game shutouts, but that was still only enough to get me a tie.

Week 7 also marked Danny Salazar being sent to the minors who I replaced with Jaime Garcia. I immediately tried to trade him for an underperforming Pablo Sandoval. The owner told me that it was close, but he needed a solid third base option in return. A few days later, I noticed that David Freese was coming off the DL. One minute after adding Freese, I made an offer of Freese and Garcia for Sandoval which was enough to get the job done two hours later.

I traded Jaime Garcia and David Freese for Pablo Sandoval.

I turned two free agent pickups into a hitter that was just about to get over his cold streak and hit very well for the rest of the season, so that worked out well.

Still, things were not going so well in the standings. Pablo Sandoval did help in his first week with multiple homers, and Justin Upton added three to get me my first win in a month. After that, I didn't have enough to win despite double-digit strikeouts from Tillman, Hamels, Greinke, and even David Robertson.

I was ten weeks into the season, and my team was 4-4-2. If the season ended today, I was in the playoffs, but there were a lot of holes in my roster and the guys that I bet on just didn't seem to be paying off. I was ready to make a change, and change was going to be drastic.

Tune in next time for part three of the longest fantasy baseball story ever told.

Where Advanced Stats Fail

I am a stat nerd. I look up advanced statistics and use them to figure out what players I want the Cubs to target, and more importantly, which players I want to target for fantasy baseball. I am not smart enough to do the math behind most of them, but I am a huge proponent of using them for a greater understanding of player performance. However, I do feel like advanced stats fail when it comes to stating how a player is currently performing.

There are two examples I want to use to illustrate my point. I was listening to the Effectively Wild podcast, and they made the statement that Brandon McCarthy has been pitching very well this year. A listener called them out, and they had to defend their position. He's been striking out a decent amount of guys, and has been walking very few. His big issues is that a lot of balls in play have fallen for hits, and when guys get on base, they have been scoring at a very high rate. Those things tend to regress towards the mean, so you would expect McCarthy to improve later on this season. Honestly, I think that you can expect for him to improve later on this season, but that still doesn't mean he has been pitching well this year. His job to prevent runs, and he has not done that, as he has an ERA over 5.00. It is partially due to bad luck, but those balls are actually falling in for hits, and it is only a hypothetical that they will stop falling in for hits. Results matter, and although advanced stats are great for predicting the future, they sometimes lose sight of real things that have actually happened.

In 2011, Justin Verlander won the Cy Young award. However, I think a teammate of his may have had just as strong of a case. That teammate? Jose Valverde. I'll wait for your laughter to die down, but just here me out. Jose Valverde, by all rational thinking, had a lot of luck in 2011, but luck doesn't matter. What really matters is that he came in for 49 save chances, and he completed 49 save chances. He did not have a single blown save throughout the entire season. Now the statistically inclined will argue the point that he didn't strike out a batter an inning, allowed a lot of walks, and even with all of that his 2.24 ERA was good but not anything great for a closer. These are all completely true, but at the same time, a closer's role is very specific: Come in and protect a lead in the final inning. He was perfect in that role. Hypothetically, he shouldn't have been, but the actual results were him being a perfect closer. It doesn't matter that everybody knew he wouldn't be as good the next season, for the 2011 season, he was the best closer in the game.

So the question becomes, what would you rather have? A workhorse starting pitcher that will give you 250 innings, with an ERA in the mid 2s and tons of strikeouts, or a guy that when you put him out there in the 9th inning with a lead, he will protect that lead. Ultimately, the latter pitcher could give up zero runs with a one run lead, one run with a two run lead, two runs with a three run lead, and so on and so forth. You're probably going to have a guy with an ERA in the 5-6 range, but on executing his job, he would be perfect. Your team would win every game that it had a lead in the final inning. I'm not smart enough to actually figure out what would be more valuable, and I'm still leaning dominant starter, but for actually providing wins for the team, it's got to be pretty close, right?

And that's where advanced stats fail. Don't get me wrong; I love using them, but sometimes it is beneficial to just dumb it down and look at archaic categories like ERA and Saves. Those things actually happened, and what actually happened is far more valuable than what should have happened.

Just don't bet your future on it.