Josh Allen - 2018 NFL Draft Scouting Report

Last week, I started off the 2018 scouting reports with Josh Rosen of UCLA, so this week I figured I would keep the Josh Train going and head north to Wyoming to look at Josh Allen. I will admit that going into this that I already had a bias against Allen. It seems like people are coming up with excuses on why his on-field play should not matter as much as the tools, because the guy looks like an ideal quarterback.

But one of my skills is having an open mind. I assumed that Mitch Trubisky sucked, and then I watched him play, my jaw hit the floor, and I begged and pleaded for the Bears to take him. Apparently I begged too much as they traded a whole lot to have that opportunity when they could have just stayed at three. So the question becomes, will Josh Allen's play change my mind? To find out, I took a look at his 2018 games against Colorado State, Utah State, Central Michigan, and Iowa.

The first thing that jumps off the screen is that the rumors of his arm strength are very real. The guy has a cannon.

I'm not sure if I have ever seen more of a rocket pass in my life. That thing is an absolute rope. Honestly, if you want to advocate for Josh Allen, just show somebody the first quarter of the Central Michigan game. It's incredible and shows all of his good qualities while hiding his weaknesses.

He also does have the ability to put some touch on the ball, as he shows with this throw.

I'm not sure if the pump fake did anything, but it looked cool. But this was one of his most impressive throws as accuracy and touch are some of the big question marks with Allen.

When he has a clean pocket, he has the ability to move through progressions.

But when the pocket isn't as clean, he gets uncomfortable quickly, and his first instinct is to bail.

Since he bailed and threw off his back foot, he couldn't put any mustard on the ball and gave Josh Jackson his first interception of what would be an incredible year for the Iowa cornerback.

Speaking of embarrassing interceptions, here is an intercepted screen pass.

Again, he throws off his back foot and throws it three yards short of his intended target. I thought that would be the worst one, but it's not even close compared to this last one.

Because he was, yet again, throwing off his back foot, he couldn't manage to throw the ball out of bounds and managed to throw an interception while throwing the ball away. That's beyond embarrassing.

These issues weren't just caused by an inability to deal with pressure. Even in a clean pocket here, he just fails to set his feet and sails the throw on the deep pass.

And this is why he struggles with inaccuracy. I do think he deserves a little leeway when it comes to completion percentage because the surrounding talent at Wyoming was not the most impressive in the nation, but shitty mechanics lead to shitty results.

Athletically, he's not special, but the thing that stands out most about him running is he takes so many unnecessary hits. I couldn't believe how many times he was running along the sideline and dropped his shoulder instead of just running out of bounds. If he was a running back, I'd love the toughness, but he's a quarterback, and the most important ability is availability. They had a lot more designed runs than seemed necessary or beneficial.

I will say he does a hell of a job staying up on first contact in the pocket, as he was able to spin out of a lot of sacks. It mostly just gave him enough time to get rid of the ball, but as a football expert, I know that not losing yards is better than losing yards.

Summary
So, in the end, what do you have? You have a beautiful frame for a quarterback, with a rocket arm, solid athleticism, but considering the shit footwork, he has no idea how to use it. There will be many front offices that agree with that assessment but think that as long as they can clean up the footwork, they'll have a hell of a quarterback. But if it was so easy to clean up that footwork, why didn't a coach already do it? Add on to that the fact that he has a complete inability to deal with the slightest bit of pressure, you are praying for a miracle when drafting Josh Allen. Josh Allen is a blueprint for what a quarterback should look like, but he is also the blueprint of a quarterback who fails to impress at the professional level. Some team is going to watch that first quarter of Wyoming's bowl game and that tunnel vision will help them ignore every red flag along the way. If I was a fan of a team that needs a quarterback, I would be sick to my stomach come draft day. As a Bears fan, I don't have much to smile about; at least I can smile about that.

2018 Scouting Reports
Josh Rosen - Quarterback - UCLA

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Brett Smith

This is obviously a very interesting year for underclassmen quarterbacks to declare for the draft. The draftniks can't stop talking about them. There is Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater, and of course, Brett Smith. Who? You know, Brett Smith, star quarterback of the Wyoming Cowboys. Still not ringing a bell? Alright, you're probably not alone. I had heard about Brett Smith, but I'll admit, I failed to watch a single snap of Wyoming football this season. I decided to break down his game by looking at his performances against Nebraska and Northwest rival, Idaho.

If you're buying into Smith, you're buying the accuracy. He does a nice job of leading his receivers on crossing routes over the middle.

My one concern is that when I did see him missing passes over the middle, it was always high. Those are balls that will turn into interceptions, so he needs to tighten things up a little bit. Still, as I said, he is usually accurate with his throws and does a nice job of leading receivers on short-to-intermediate routes.

He is a good athlete that is a threat to run with the ball as he shows here.

It's nothing special, but he accelerates well and runs into the open field and shows that he has solid mobility that will benefit him. I still would not consider him a dual-threat quarterback despite putting up some pretty solid running stats.

On the negatives side, he is not real smooth in his motions. Sometimes he can look a little robotic out there when setting his feet. Also, there is not much velocity on his throws. It really looks like he is pushing a lot of his passes to his receivers instead of driving them toward his intended target.

Speaking of that, I'm also not a fan of the sidearm delivery. Yes, there have been other quarterbacks who have been successful with it, but it requires that quarterback to be great at everything else to have a chance at success. It can work in a west coast offense that is built on timing, but with the way he waits for his receivers to get open, I have a hard time seeing him succeed with the tools he has shown.

This is a perfectly placed ball down the field, but the velocity on the throw leaves something to be desired.

It really reminds me of what Kellen Moore was able to do for Boise State a few years ago in that the deep balls were not pretty, but they were effective at the college level. This is probably the best ball I saw him throw, as it's not a terrible arc and it is right on the money.

This next pass is one of the worst throws I've ever seen from a college quarterback.

That is like a Tecmo Bowl pass where it just stays in the air forever. If somebody is throwing up a hail mary, I understand. If someone is throwing it 70 yards, I can understand. It went about 42 yards in the air. It is the most arm punt pass I have ever seen.

Back to the positive which includes good pocket presence as he feels pressure well while still keeping his eyes down the field. This play is not pretty, but he does maintain his composure to find the open receiver, but he's a split second late on getting rid of the ball and can't make a proper throw on the pass.

Still, he makes subtle movements to give himself about an extra second before the rush gets there, and he does identify the right receiver to get the ball to. Most college quarterbacks put their heads down in that situation, so it is nice that he can keep his eyes down field, even if the ball still falls incomplete. Still, this is a consistent skill he has shown, as seen on this play, which ends slightly better than the first one.

He not only does a good job of moving within the pocket, but he has a good sense on when to leak outside of the pocket to look for some space. All the while, he keeps his eyes down the field, so he is able to make a nice pass inside the red zone.

Despite him having good pocket awareness and accurate throws, the other issue that is going to hurt him is that he waits for receivers to get open instead of leading them open. Throwing windows are very small for the most part, so waiting that extra little bit to see a receiver open instead of anticipating him to get open will really hurt him at the next level.

On this breakdown, I didn't use as much video as normal, because the bad things are evident on every throw. The arm strength just isn't there. At that point, you are really limiting your offense and every pass of any decent yardage becomes a real adventure. I mentioned him earlier, and I truly believe the best comp for him is Kellen Moore. They do just about everything right but simply don't have the physical tools to be a successful quarterback. They deserve a great amount of respect for reaching the levels of success they achieved; my arm strength only took me to elementary recess quarterback before I learned that my noodle arm was not going to be enough to stretch 11-person defenses. Still, he's a guy you can take a late round flyer on in a west coast system where he can be a competent backup, but nobody you ever want playing meaningful minutes.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida
3. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State
4. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech
5. Brett Smith - Wyoming
6. Aaron Murray - Georgia