Friday, March 26, 2010

UFC 111 Picks

Rory Markham +240 over Nate Diaz -300 - I figured I'd start off with an upset as I think Markham could be a bad matchup for Nate. Markham is a good striker and has also never been submitted in his career. Markham can keep the fight standing or probably muscle Diaz to the ground. Nate Diaz is definitely dangerous, so this is by no way a guarantee, but I needed to pick one upset, so I figured why not pick the guy who trains in Bettendorf?

Rodney "Sho Nuff The Master" Wallace -130 over Jared Hamman -Even - I'm basically picking Wallace because of his nickname. He's a pretty good wrestler, and if he can win the position battle, he should be able to grind out a decision.

Matthew Riddle - -250 over Greg Soto +190 - I'm picking Riddle as these guys have pretty similar styles, but Riddle is very big for a welterweight, so I think he will be able to use that to win the wrestling battle and probably TKO him in the second round.

Ricardo Almeida -160 over Matt Brown +130 - Although Matt Brown has been very impressive in his standup game against his recent opponents, I think Almeida will be able to get the takedown consistently against Brown. Once they get to the ground, it's Almeida's world, and I think he'll be able to pull off a submission.

Rousimar Palhares -225 over Tomasz Drwal +185 - Drwal does have pretty good wrestling, but I don't think it's good enough to consistently stop Palhares from getting a takedown. Palhares is such a threat once the fight gets to the ground that I think he will submit Drwal once he gets him to the ground.

Jim Miller -500 over Mark Bocek +325 - Bocek has the advantage in jiu-jitsu, but Miller is no slouch. If the fight stays standing, Miller will pick him apart, if it goes to the ground, Miller will be on top, and he'll pound on Bocek. I would rank this as the safest bet of the night.

Kurt Pellegrino -250 over Fabricio Camoes +190 - Pellegrino is well rounded, and although Camoes is very good on the ground, I don't think it will be enough to win, Pellegrino by decision.

Jon Fitch - 450 over Ben Saunders +300 - Saunders did something very smart by asking for Fitch once Thiago Alves wasn't cleared to fight. Saunders was already training for a very similar fighter in Jake Ellenberger (Not as good, but similar). Fitch was training for a much different fight with Alves, so there's different things for Fitch to worry about while Saunders knows what he's up against and his entire training camp has focused on that. I still think Fitch wins, but if Saunders were ever going to beat Fitch, these are the ideal circumstances.

Shane Carwin +125 over Frank Mir -155 - Mir's boxing has looked great in his last few fights, but even if he gets Carwin in trouble on the feet, Carwin can and will take him down. I know that Mir is very good at jiu-jitsu, but Carwin has a very good chance of keeping a dominant top control and pounding on Mir. Mir's wrestling has never been good, and since Carwin can dictate where the fight goes, I think he will be able to TKO Mir in the 4th round.

Georges St. Pierre -625 over Dan Hardy +425 - Dan Hardy's standup is good, it's not great. He's knocked out one guy in his UFC career, otherwise, he's Decision Dan, and two of those decisions were split decisions. He's never fought anybody anywhere near the same level as GSP, and this fight ends with a TKO, probably in the first round.

This is probably the strongest card the UFC has put together this year, so it should be a good night of fights.


P.S. Since I know today's posts weren't the most fan friendly pieces, go here to read an awesome article on keg tapping.

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