Monday, January 21, 2013

UFC on Fox: Johnson vs. Dodson Predictions

So I'm going to the UFC on Fox card this coming Saturday. I am very pumped as it will not only be my first UFC card, it is also just a really stacked card. I know which fight I am most excited about, but there are like five fights that are close in being the second most exciting fight to watch.

I'll admit I didn't look that hard for odds on fights, but I found them for the main card. Two fights that are not on the main card are Ryan Bader vs. Vladimir Matyushenko and Clay Guida making his featherweight debut against Hatsu Hioki. I'm taking Bader and Guida in those fights, although I do feel that the Janitor is very underrated. I think Guida could be a real force at 145, because his lack of size at lightweight was probably his biggest issue. Also, Clay Guida is an awesome dude, and that slightly factors into my picks.

TJ Grant (-120) over Matt Wiman
I think TJ Grant will be too physical for Wiman. I think he will bully him in the clinch and be able to take him to the ground if he chooses to. I see it as a close fight, but I think Grant will win a decision.

Erik Koch (-150) over Ricardo Lamas
I think this is a real even matchup. Both of these guys are very tough featherweights, and it should be a fun stylistic match. Koch will want to keep the fight standing and strike, while Lamas is going to look to take him down. I think both guys will be successful at different points of the fight, but I see Koch keeping it standing enough to earn a decision over Lamas. Still, it should be a fun fight to watch.

Anthony Pettis (-120) over Donald Cerrone
Although Pettis was not impressive against Clay Guida or Jeremy Stephens, he looked like his old self when he decimated Joe Lauzon. He has had a year off due to injuries, so it is tough to say if he can pick up where he left off, but I really believe he can. Cerrone is one of the toughest guys in the UFC, so I really hate to pick against him. Still, the matchups that will cause Pettis problems are wrestlers, and Cerrone will stand up with him and trade shots. I think Pettis will get the better of more exchanges to earn the victory.

Glover Teixeira (-300) over Quinton Jackson
In these other fights, I really hate picking against either of the guys in the fight. In this fight, I would like to pick against both of these guys. Teixeira hasn't lost in nearly eight years. That's insane, but he also hasn't fought the best competition, so I still think it is hard to say that this guy is one of the best light heavyweights in the world. On the other hand, Rampage hasn't been the same guy in a while. I feel like most fighters have progressed past him, where he is just trying to maintain his old level of skill as opposed to striving for improvement. He's said this will be his last fight in the UFC, and he just doesn't seem like a guy who wants it as bad as he used to. Hopefully he can move past fighting and live a life, because I have a feeling that a lot of his contemporaries are going to run into some mental health issues down the road. Teixeira by submission in the second round.

John Dodson (+175) over Demetrious Johnson
I am going to be up front about something. I was trained by John Dodson. He is an awesome guy, and the main reason I am going to this UFC card is to support him and hopefully watch him win the UFC Flyweight Championship. Obviously, it's tough for me to give an unbiased opinion on this fight, but the more I think about the fight, the more I believe that John Dodson will win. I'll admit that when I first heard the matchup, I thought that it would be a tough matchup for Dodson. As I have thought about it more, I think it's a tough matchup for both guys. I don't know if anybody is as fast as Demetrious Johnson. That dude is incredible. But Dodson is incredibly fast too. I think the speed advantage probably goes to Johnson since he is more active with his footwork. But power, without a doubt, goes to Dodson. All it takes is one shot with a guy like that, and he can end the fight. Johnson does a very good job of picking his shots with takedowns, but Dodson has very good defensive wrestling. On top of that, both guys come from very good training camps. Oh yeah, and neither of these guys have been finished.

So with all that information...well, shit, these guys are pretty damn evenly matched. I do see this match being won on the feet, so it's a matter of picking a preference of Johnson's speed versus Dodson's power. I just don't see Johnson being able to pop in, land shots, and pop out without taking some shots from Dodson. I'm going with John Dodson by TKO in the fourth round.

Even though I'm not sure what's going to happen in the fights, I am sure that it will be a hell of a night of fights, and I'm pumped for it.


No comments:

Post a Comment