Which Cubs Prospect Is Most Likely To Be a Bust?

The Cubs are currently loaded with hitting prospects as most agree that they have the best farm system in baseball. Still, every Cubs fan seems to be cautiously optimistic about the future. Since these guys have not performed at the big league level, some of them are bound to fail. The odds definitely say that some will not work out, but which ones are going to fail? That is the question that I am going to try to answer by looking at the Cubs top hitting prospects and determining who has the largest, and by process of ranking, smallest, chance to fail.

8. Arismendy Alcantara - He has consistently done well in the minors, and he is already holding his own at the major league level. There are going to be some growing pains, but I feel very confident saying that he will be a valuable major leaguer while under team control.

7. Addison Russell - His chance of being a bust seems to be almost entirely tied to his chances of injuries. But considering he came back from a serious hamstring injury and has annihilated the ball in Double-A since being traded to the Cubs, that seems to quell those concerns. He gets extremely positive reviews for his defense, and it seems likely that he will be the shortstop of the future. According to everything that I have seen and heard, it seems very likely that Russell will be an incredibly valuable major leaguer.

6. Jorge Soler - This may seem low on the potential to bust, but I see very little chance in him not becoming a good outfielder. Like Russell, his only real concern is injuries, and he has slightly more concern with that, but when he is healthy, he hits. He has always put up good numbers, and since he's come back from injury, he's put up scary numbers. Soler and Yasiel Puig got signed in the same year, and everybody thought Soler was the better signing. Now, that looks a tad silly right now, but Soler has the potential to be as good as Puig, so I don't think the Cubs are too disappointed about signing him.

5. Billy McKinney - He is not only 20 years old and more than holding his own in High-A. Everything that he has showed so far has shown that he can be an above average regular. Still, he doesn't have much of a track record since he is so young. He has the potential to turn into a better player since he is so young for his current league, but that lack of track record also means that he could end up never making a positive contribution at the big league level.

4. Javier Baez - The fact that he swings at a lot of pitches is worrisome, but the one thing that quells my fear is that he has made adjustments at every level. He struggles early on, but then he makes those necessary tweaks and starts to crush the ball. The strikeouts are still a concern, but the more he proves himself, the more I start to believe he could become an infield playing Vladimir Guerrero. That's the absolute ceiling, but there are few players that can claim to have that sort of potential.

3. Kris Bryant - I love Kris Bryant, because he is totally my type. Big power, strikeout concerns, and questionable defense (my type for pitching is velocity and strikeouts). Try to get me to stop singing the praises of Chris Carter; you can't. Still, this is the line where I start having real concern about bust potential. Let's just throw out some minor league lines of comparable players to see what type of player we can expect Kris Bryant to become.

Bryant - .341/.446/.685 with 36 home runs, 68 walks, and 129 strikeouts while 3.3 years younger than his competition.
Player A - .321/.381/.667 with 43 home runs, 48 walks, and 134 strikeouts while 3 years younger than his competition.
Player B - .317/.387/.670 with 40 home runs, 57 walks, and 169 strikeouts while 2.7 years younger than his competition.

Those players are all pretty similar. Bryant has the advantage in age and walks, but he is on pace to strike out closer to Player B than Player A. Still, there has been some change in strikeout rate overall, so we can give him at least comparable contact rates to either guy. Player A is Brandon Wood, Player B is Dallas McPherson. Don't mind me; I'm going to be vomiting in the corner over the next few hours. Kris Bryant is a potential monster, but he has some flaws in his game. If he struggles at making contact in the minors, it is only going to get tougher at the major league level. Wood and McPherson were two guys who completely fell apart at that level, but despite all that, Kris Bryant is already close to my heart, so despite all this logic, thre is no way I would bet against him (Full disclosure though: I'd still be a little intrigued if the Cubs signed Brandon Wood today. His current line with the Sugar Land Skeeters is .098/.156/.159.).

2. Kyle Schwarber - There is just so very little to go on with Schwarber that he has an incredibly high bust potential. He crushed the ball at his first two stops but is struggling at the High-A level, which is probably an appropriate level for a college player. There is no consensus on whether he can stay behind the plate, and it's too early to really tell how good of a hitter he will become. I just can't imagine anyone being very confident that he will turn into a quality major leaguer. That doesn't mean that he won't; it's just that there is not enough evidence to go on to make a strong bet either way on Schwarber.

1. Albert Almora - This is a pretty obvious number one choice as this is the one hitting prospect who has not set the world on fire this year. He was just okay at High-A, and he has really struggled since moving up to Double-A. I am not a huge fan of walks as the be all, end all for prospects, but it is a preferable thing for a potential leadoff hitter to excel in. He is only 20 years old and in Double-A, so it is not time to throw in the towel. This could be a bump in the road, or it could be a sign of things to come. I am hoping for the former, but like with all of these prospects, only time will tell.

What the Jeff Samardzija Trade Means for the Cubs Future

Two of the most talked about trade assets this season were Cubs pitchers Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija. People speculated what each might bring in a trade to benefit the Cubs' future. Last night, it came as a surprise that the Cubs packaged both of them together in a deal with the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics definitely made it worth their while as they sent over Addison Russell, Dan Straily, Billy McKinney, and a player to be named later.

The player to be named later is supposedly not consequential, so let's not worry about that. The next player to focus on is Billy McKinney who was aggressively pushed to High-A this year and has struggled but has also shown promise. His strikeout and walk ratios look good, and his biggest issue is that very few of his batted balls have fallen in for hits in what is usually a very friendly hitter's league. He was a first round pick in 2013, so he has the potential to be a starting left fielder.

Next up, there is Dan Straily. I'm way too excited about this aspect of the trade, because the Cubs' Pitching Coach, Chris Bosio, has done amazing things with a similar player in Jake Arrieta. Do I expect Straily to match what Arrieta has done this year? No, and he probably won't even come close, but that is more because Arrieta is off-the-chain amazing. Still, I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter, and I think his worst case scenario is a back-end starter. It's not amazing, but that is a nice piece to get in this deal, as I wouldn't be surprised if he put up better numbers than Jason Hammel for the rest of this season.

Finally, there is uber-prospect, Addison Russell. With a talent like this, nobody will blame you as your heart goes pitter-patter at just the sound of his name. He's a good defensive shortstop with a bat that could make him a generational talent. This is the reason they packaged their pitchers together, as I did not expect the Cubs to get a guy at this level by trading just Samardzija. Still, there is one giant red flag with Russell, and that is that he has missed most of the season after tearing his hamstring. When I think hamstring injuries, I immediately think of Jose Reyes, and that is why this sort of injury terrifies me. It could turn out to be a one-time injury where he fully recovers and sees no other issues, but I can just about guarantee that the Oakland Athletics front office were concerned about its long-term impact, and that was part of the reason they were willing to part with a prospect who has the potential to be a generational talent. 

So what does it mean for the Cubs future? Well, the most likely situation is that it gives the team depth in case some of these prospects don't pan out. Although Alcantara, Almora, Baez, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Soler all have potential to be good-to-great major leaguers, inevitably, some of them are not going to reach their potential. 

If they do all make it, that's a great problem to have. It's not impossible to imagine this offense by 2016:

C - Schwarber

1B - Rizzo

2B - Alcantara

3B - Baez

SS - Russell

LF - Soler

CF - Almora

RF - Bryant

That is the rosiest of outlooks imaginable, but even if only half of those guys live up to their potential, and they put average guys at other positions, it could still be a pretty potent offense. The Cubs front office has done a phenomenal job of acquiring talent to build towards the future. It has not been a quick process, but it has been a thorough one as the Cubs minor league system is absolutely loaded. 

That still leaves the pitching side of things where Cubs fans seem to be worried, but this is an area where the Cubs front office has shown an aptitude for finding hidden gems for cheap. Even with these gems, it still only led to about a #3 starter in cases like Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and Scott Feldman, which although nice, is not ideal in the playoffs. But the Cubs also acquired Jake Arrieta who has pitched like a legitimate ace this season, and it changes the whole outlook of the future of the rotation with a true #1 leading the way. Also, as I mentioned earlier, Chris Bosio has done a great job as the pitching coach, and if he can keep doing what he's been doing, finding quality pitching might be easier than expected.

And the Cubs also have a trade asset that I have not even mentioned yet in Starlin Castro. After a terrible year last year, he is back to fulfilling his initial promise. Worst case is they need to keep him as prospects don't pan out, but best case is that these prospects do pan out, and the Cubs can get a high end pitching prospect to add to their farm system. It seems unlikely that the Cubs would trade him this season unless they really don't believe in him to continue his performance, because he's signed through 2019, so he would still have incredible trade value two years from now. Javier Baez has not done enough to bump Castro the the outfield, so there is really absolutely no reason for the Cubs to rush to get rid of him unless they get an offer that is too good to pass up.

The Cubs from these last couple years have been the best bad team in baseball. Their record is awful, which definitely makes them a bad team, but their run differential shows that they are far closer to average than to the basement of MLB. Replacing the black holes on offense, filling in the rotation, and strengthening the bullpen don't require Herculean feats, it requires manageable tweaks, and the Cubs have more than enough talent to make that a reality. 

The future is bright, but it is also not imminent. Even with many of their top prospects due to debut in Chicago in the next year, there are going to be growing pains. 2015 is the year to expect a step forward where they can play around .500 ball. But 2016 is the year to expect the leap into being a contender. Be sure to get your shades on by then, because the future will only get brighter from there. 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but, it's good to be a Cubs fan.