I Was Wrong About Iowa Basketball

Going into this season, I thought that the Iowa Hawkeyes were going to be awful at basketball. Early on in the season, I felt vindicated as Iowa couldn't beat a good team to save their lives. They couldn't beat Seton Hall at home, and more embarrassingly, they only manged 41 points against Virginia, then followed that by giving up 100 points to Memphis. Their offense depended on everybody being hot from the outside, and their defense was nonexistent. They followed those two games by getting beat by Notre Dame before hitting rock bottom and losing to University of Nebraska...Omaha. Iowa wasn't going to struggle this year; they were going to be abysmal.

Then something weird happened. They beat the 25th ranked, Iowa State Cyclones. I didn't think they'd be good enough to win a game like that, but it was a rivalry game, and as the cliche goes, you can throw the record books out when those two teams get together. Then, something even more odd happened when Iowa totally handled Northern Iowa. Even if UNI wasn't strong this year, Iowa shouldn't have been able to dominate them like that.

And since then, outside of a beating they took from Purdue on the road, Iowa looks like a real basketball team, and that is something I did not see coming. In fact, they even avenged the beating that Purdue gave them by getting a win over the Boilermakers at home. I thought they were going to be the hottest garbage, but I really underestimated the talents of this team.

First, there was Peter Jok. It's not that I really underestimated Jok, because I've always been a huge fan, but I saw what he is doing this year as the absolute height of his potential; I didn't think he'd actually reach it. But the dude has been phenomenal and deserves national attention for his play so far this year. He's an incredible scorer, and he's really stepped up in his ability to contribute in other areas this season which is not easy to do while doing most of the heavy lifting on offense.

On production alone, I had Tyler Cook pegged fairly well, as nothing he has done has really surprised me, but how he is doing it is more impressive than I anticipated. He's just so damn...smooth. Everything he does in his actions are very fluid, and as he adds strength and some bulk, he's going to be very tough to deal with for any team facing the Hawkeyes.

The guy I missed the biggest on was Jordan Bohannon. Like, he's a Bohannon, so I knew he'd be able to shoot, but I did not think he'd be a competent facilitator as a true freshman. It's incredible how far he has exceeded my expectations in running the offense, as I thought Christian Williams would have to run point with Bohannon playing the off guard position to run around screens and shoot up threes. He's been way more than that, and this is an excellent sign for Iowa's future.

The guy that everybody underestimated was Cordell Pemsl. I didn't really expect him to get any minutes this year, but he's been great. He's basically what I dreamed that Ahmad Wagner would become this year. He's like a poor man's Corliss Williamson (who was one of my favorite college players ever). I don't think Pemsl has the highest ceiling, but if he could just do this for four years and maybe improve his free throw shooting, that's a really nice college player.

I also didn't expect much from Isaiah Moss who may have the most potential of any of the freshman (non Tyler Cook edition). He's athletic and can make threes fairly well, which is a really good starting point for a college player. When Jok leaves, Moss is going to get a chance to shine much brighter, and i think he'll do just that.

On top of that, you have Nicholas Baer being the ultimate hustle guy; Brady Ellingson is nailing threes like it's nobody's business; Ahmad Wagner still being a solid big that can take some minutes off the bench and do good things; Christian Williams puts in quality minutes while running the offense and playing strong defense; Dom Uhl....well, Uhl has kind of taken a step back, but he's still long and athletic; and Kriener and Dailey are a-okay young fellas.

I know I'm talking about this Iowa team as if they are real contenders, and they're not that yet. The Big Ten is down this year, but Iowa has gone from a team that I expected to win 4-5 games in conference play to a team that could be right around .500. Instead of them getting blown away consistently, they have shown they can compete, although they are inexperienced enough where the occasional blowout is going to still happen. Most importantly, this team is super fun, and they're only going to get better. I thought I was going to be excited about the future of Iowa basketball; I didn't know I'd be so excited about the present.

Sometimes it's good to be wrong.

(And of course after I wrote this, Iowa immediately got blown out by Northwestern, because I can somehow never be right about this team)

What the Jeff Samardzija Trade Means for the Cubs Future

Two of the most talked about trade assets this season were Cubs pitchers Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija. People speculated what each might bring in a trade to benefit the Cubs' future. Last night, it came as a surprise that the Cubs packaged both of them together in a deal with the Oakland Athletics. The Athletics definitely made it worth their while as they sent over Addison Russell, Dan Straily, Billy McKinney, and a player to be named later.

The player to be named later is supposedly not consequential, so let's not worry about that. The next player to focus on is Billy McKinney who was aggressively pushed to High-A this year and has struggled but has also shown promise. His strikeout and walk ratios look good, and his biggest issue is that very few of his batted balls have fallen in for hits in what is usually a very friendly hitter's league. He was a first round pick in 2013, so he has the potential to be a starting left fielder.

Next up, there is Dan Straily. I'm way too excited about this aspect of the trade, because the Cubs' Pitching Coach, Chris Bosio, has done amazing things with a similar player in Jake Arrieta. Do I expect Straily to match what Arrieta has done this year? No, and he probably won't even come close, but that is more because Arrieta is off-the-chain amazing. Still, I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter, and I think his worst case scenario is a back-end starter. It's not amazing, but that is a nice piece to get in this deal, as I wouldn't be surprised if he put up better numbers than Jason Hammel for the rest of this season.

Finally, there is uber-prospect, Addison Russell. With a talent like this, nobody will blame you as your heart goes pitter-patter at just the sound of his name. He's a good defensive shortstop with a bat that could make him a generational talent. This is the reason they packaged their pitchers together, as I did not expect the Cubs to get a guy at this level by trading just Samardzija. Still, there is one giant red flag with Russell, and that is that he has missed most of the season after tearing his hamstring. When I think hamstring injuries, I immediately think of Jose Reyes, and that is why this sort of injury terrifies me. It could turn out to be a one-time injury where he fully recovers and sees no other issues, but I can just about guarantee that the Oakland Athletics front office were concerned about its long-term impact, and that was part of the reason they were willing to part with a prospect who has the potential to be a generational talent. 

So what does it mean for the Cubs future? Well, the most likely situation is that it gives the team depth in case some of these prospects don't pan out. Although Alcantara, Almora, Baez, Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Soler all have potential to be good-to-great major leaguers, inevitably, some of them are not going to reach their potential. 

If they do all make it, that's a great problem to have. It's not impossible to imagine this offense by 2016:

C - Schwarber

1B - Rizzo

2B - Alcantara

3B - Baez

SS - Russell

LF - Soler

CF - Almora

RF - Bryant

That is the rosiest of outlooks imaginable, but even if only half of those guys live up to their potential, and they put average guys at other positions, it could still be a pretty potent offense. The Cubs front office has done a phenomenal job of acquiring talent to build towards the future. It has not been a quick process, but it has been a thorough one as the Cubs minor league system is absolutely loaded. 

That still leaves the pitching side of things where Cubs fans seem to be worried, but this is an area where the Cubs front office has shown an aptitude for finding hidden gems for cheap. Even with these gems, it still only led to about a #3 starter in cases like Travis Wood, Jason Hammel, and Scott Feldman, which although nice, is not ideal in the playoffs. But the Cubs also acquired Jake Arrieta who has pitched like a legitimate ace this season, and it changes the whole outlook of the future of the rotation with a true #1 leading the way. Also, as I mentioned earlier, Chris Bosio has done a great job as the pitching coach, and if he can keep doing what he's been doing, finding quality pitching might be easier than expected.

And the Cubs also have a trade asset that I have not even mentioned yet in Starlin Castro. After a terrible year last year, he is back to fulfilling his initial promise. Worst case is they need to keep him as prospects don't pan out, but best case is that these prospects do pan out, and the Cubs can get a high end pitching prospect to add to their farm system. It seems unlikely that the Cubs would trade him this season unless they really don't believe in him to continue his performance, because he's signed through 2019, so he would still have incredible trade value two years from now. Javier Baez has not done enough to bump Castro the the outfield, so there is really absolutely no reason for the Cubs to rush to get rid of him unless they get an offer that is too good to pass up.

The Cubs from these last couple years have been the best bad team in baseball. Their record is awful, which definitely makes them a bad team, but their run differential shows that they are far closer to average than to the basement of MLB. Replacing the black holes on offense, filling in the rotation, and strengthening the bullpen don't require Herculean feats, it requires manageable tweaks, and the Cubs have more than enough talent to make that a reality. 

The future is bright, but it is also not imminent. Even with many of their top prospects due to debut in Chicago in the next year, there are going to be growing pains. 2015 is the year to expect a step forward where they can play around .500 ball. But 2016 is the year to expect the leap into being a contender. Be sure to get your shades on by then, because the future will only get brighter from there. 

I can't believe I'm saying this, but, it's good to be a Cubs fan.