Scouting Week 9 of College Football

Oh, Jameis Winston. You're very good at football. He has great placement on his balls. He also is thinking far ahead of most college (and even some pro) quarterbacks in the way that he will throw balls to protect his receivers. He threw a crossing route behind his receiver, and it saved his receiver from getting laid out by an NC State defensive back. Still, it's really hard to do much judging of him when his team is just dominating their opponents. Maybe Miami will give him a tough game next week, but I'm kind of doubting it.

Sammy Watkins is incredibly smooth as a receiver. The one thing that stood out for Alshon Jeffrey that Watkins has is the way he attacks the ball with his hands instead of waiting for it to come to him. Jeffrey has been so good that some people view him as the Bears true #1 receiver. I'm not quite ready to go there with him, but Watkins might be Jeffrey with more athleticism. He's just an incredibly reliable target.

Tajh Boyd, on the other hand, is just fine. He greatly benefits from the weapons around him, and he seems to lack a great feel for things. Last week, he lost the ball on a corner blitz when he was naturally rolling away from that blitz. This week, he failed to handle pressure repeatedly. He loses track of what is around him when he feels pressure, and he only survives on pure athleticism, which will not work at the next level.

AJ McCarron, and everyone on Alabama, drives me crazy, because there is just so much talent on that team that they can completely outclass opponents. How much credit does McCarron deserve? As I'm typing this, Christion Jones just took an end around for five yards; unsatisfied, he completely reversed field, and ended up picking up an additional 15. McCarron places his balls really well, but his receivers get so open that he really doesn't need to rocket anything in there.

From what I've seen, I would compare him to Andy Dalton, where he has the skillset to be competent at the next level. An interesting question is whether Andy Dalton was a good pick for the Bengals. He's good enough to guide them to the playoffs with the help of the best receiver in the league, a good offensive line, and a very good defense. I'm really not sure if that's a compliment or an insult. He's not Blaine Gabbert, which is good, but is their ceiling with a guy like him at QB a loss in the divisional round of the playoffs?

Anthony Barr is baffling me. He always takes advantage of mistakes, but it seems like he only makes plays off of mistakes. He's got a great speed rush, so if the offensive line doesn't get a good kick out in their initial set, he will blow right by them. I can't tell if his speed is so great that he makes people look like they have terrible technique or if his speed just kills terrible technique. He also has a great engine, and he does just keep moving and finding a way to make plays. I could see him being a lot like Aldon Smith, who is a guy I totally whiffed on. Before the draft, I'm going to try to watch tape from both guys to see if I am missing something on prospects like this.

Marcus Mariota is one guy who I have been waiting to study. I'm still not nearly as high on him as others seem to be. The first thing that leaps out is that he is an incredible athlete. His down field throws left a lot to be desired. In the second quarter, he completed a deep out, but he under threw it and it almost gave the defensive back a play on the ball. They turned the ball over on downs when he badly overthrew a receiver in the end zone. Too often, he just tries to fire the ball in there, but he has the ability to put touch on the ball. His touchdown pass in the game was a really nice ball that he made look very easy. He does do a good job of going through his reads. He doesn't panic and does a good job of setting and throwing. Oregon has a great offense, and that makes things easy on Mariota. Right now, I see him as a rich man's Kaepernick, so he definitely has first round value. Seeing how he handles pressure will provide a better idea of how high in the first round he should go.

Brett Hundley is just not impressive. I saw major issues when I watched him against Nebraska, and I continue to have the same concerns. The good about Hundley is obvious. He's athletic, and he has good arm strength. The most brutal part of his game was a terrible throw inside the red zone that led to an easy pick from Oregon. Hundley's touchdown pass before the end of the half was a nice ball, but that is where he succeeds. It was a throw over the middle where he was able to go to his first read. He recognized the blitz and knew that if his receiver was able to break inside the cornerback that it was just going to be a pitch and catch at that point. He also doesn't have a great feel inside the pocket as sometimes he panics when it is not necessary and other times he does not notice a defender nearby. The endzone camera would help on this, but he seemed to lock into receivers at times and fail completely on going through his progressions before trying to run. He zeroes in on a guy, which gives the safety a chance to break on routes, so instead of waiting for a receiver to get open, he telegraphs it so much that the coverage can adjust to his eyes. This is the reason he got picked off at the beginning of the fourth quarter, because the man in coverage was able to break on the pass before he even threw it. I don't hate him as a prospect, but I do think he could use another year, possibly two, in college to refine his game. If he came out this year, a team would really be gambling on a lot of different things coming together for him to work out at the next level.

DeAnthony Thomas is a guy who is dangerous in space, and I think if he is utilized correctly, he can be an impact player, but he's far more Darren Sproles than Warrick Dunn. I just don't see an every down back in him, and he has to be in a system that is designed for success.

I was digging Jordan Zumwalt, as there was a drive where he was basically trying to murder everyone on Oregon. He was always around the ball, and that guy is a player.

I love Brandin Cooks. I was only able to catch the oregon State-Stanford game at the bar, but that dude is a player. Very elusive and very good routes, finds holes in the defense and is a great asset for a quarterback. 

Quick Thoughts on the 2013 NFL Draft

After quarterbacks, there is nothing I love looking at more than pass rushers. There's just a lot to watch, because even on plays where they do nothing, you can still learn things about them. I took a look at guys in no particular order, and it kind of worked out perfectly as we start on a bad note but end on a good one.

I wouldn't touch Ezekial Ansah from BYU. I watched his game against Hawaii, and had he not been circled on every play, I would have had no idea he was on the field. He may be a great athlete, but he has a far ways to go before he is a football player. He rushes straight up, is easily blocked because of that and just kind of keeps pushing forward as his only pass rushing move. He does not read plays well which makes him poor in run stopping as well. On top of this, he is not a good tackler, as he just kind of fell off guys multiple times. I would not touch him until the middle rounds where you can gamble on the upside and hope your coaching staff can help him develop.

On the bright side for BYU fans, even though he was not circled, number 3 jumps off the screen on defense. I looked it up to make sure I wasn't being an idiot, but no, it was Kyle Van Noy who was a third team All-American. That dude is fun to watch. I am very high on him for next year.

Dion Jordan has legit quickness, especially in his ability to change directions. He's got a lot of positive reviews for his ability to cover, and I can see why, because all the athletic gifts are there. He played well against Stanford, but I don't know if this guy is an elite pass rusher. He does a decent job of dipping his shoulder when pass rushing, but he never wowed me in his pass rush skills. I honestly didn't see enough to make a definite decision. I see first round athleticism but not sure if I would want to take him in the top 10 picks.

Bjoern Werner definitely doesn't have the athleticism of Dion Jordan. But he's got a motor. He blocked two guys after an interception against Miami. What really stands out are his instincts. He does a good job of reading and reacting to plays. He's not a guy who bit on things and he adjusted quickly to runs and passes. He's gotten grouped in with pass rushers, but this guy is a 4-3 Defensive End that should not be playing linebacker. Where he's got an advantage over the other guys is power, he was basically able to shuck Seantrel Henderson who is a legit offensive line prospect for next year's draft and get a sack. If I am a 3-4 team, I'm not as interested in Werner, but as a 4-3 team looking for a defensive end, this is my guy in this draft.

After Werner, I decided to watch another "slow" prospect and check out Jarvis Jones's game against Alabama. I love productive guys in college, because it usually translates pretty well to the next level, especially on things like pass rushing skills. Jarvis Jones has a motor. Honestly, he may not be the best athlete, but he is definitely quick. Straight line speed really doesn't mean shit when it comes to pass rushing. His best pass rushing move was using his quickness to the outside and dipping that inside shoulder. He does a nice job of making himself a small target for offensive linemen, which is a skill that definitely translates to the next level. I think he can be a double-digit sack guy at the next level.

Quick side note. Watch this Alec Ogletree play.

That's all I need to see from him for me to want the Bears to draft him.

I watched Barkevious Mingo's game against Clemson. This guy was the opposite of Jarvis Jones as the numbers never seemed to match the scouting reports. In this case, I am definitely going with the scouting reports. He pops off the screen and shows a rare ability to explode right at the snap. There were a few moments where I just went "Jesus Christ" while watching the film. Although his sack numbers were not there, the production was. He caused a ton of hurries and just faced a lot of teams with quick passing attacks where there wasn't much he could do. He's got a good bend when rushing to the outside and he's quick enough to cause havoc when looping to the inside. He also has the makings of a pretty solid spin move as he keeps his body pretty tight in it. If I'm getting a pass rusher in this draft, Mingo is my guy. He's not a traditional 4-3 defensive end like he played in college, but making him a 3-4 outside linebacker or a Leo in a 4-3, similar to Bruce Irvin, would lead to a ton of production. The only concern is his pass coverage skills, because he never had to in college, but the raw material is there for him to at least be passable from the start.  Some team is going to be very happy to get this guy on their team.

In full disclosure, I have to admit that I hated Aldon Smith coming out of college, but I feel I learned from my mistake of hating a guy for only making ankle tackles. If it's effective, there is no need to change, and he found a great scheme for his skillset. Still, I wrote this, and I can't completely ignore it, "I was in the middle of writing about Aldon Smith being the worst pick of the first round when, holy shit, Jake Locker got selected one pick after him." The second half of that comment was at least fine. I will still hold my head high on this one forever and ever. 

Also, one last note, I am going to try to live blog parts of the draft. Tonight, I am stuck at an event, but I will try to follow along and sneak in Twitter remarks (@HottJoe). Lukewarm Jonah expressed interest in live blogging the later rounds, so we may try and do that. Stay tuned. 

Scouting The NFL Draft - Big 12/MAC Defensive Linemen

It's time for some more NFL Draft analysis. Yes, I realize that this is not what most people come to this site for, but hey, after yesterday's post (which has gotten rave reviews), I feel like I deserve a little leeway. Today, we tackle (get it?) prospects from the Big 12 and the MAC (at least I'm pretty sure Temple is in the MAC). Without further adieu, let's break down these fellas.

Von Miller - I know he isn't going to play defensive line at the professional level, but he did in college, so I feel like I can include him here. I watched the tape of his game against Texas, and he annihilated them. The thing that jumps out at me is his acceleration. He gets up to max speed very quickly, although I don't think his straight line speed looks all that impressive. I don't think this will hurt him in pass rush, but it could be an issue if he is forced to play man-to-man coverage with a running back or tight end. Even when he doesn't have the quickness to beat his blocker, he has enough strength to still disrupt plays even when getting locked up with much bigger guys. But most lineman have trouble locking him up, because he stays incredibly low. At times, it looks like he gets his inside shoulder about a foot off the ground when rushing, and it's tough for guys who are 6'6"-6'8" to get a hand on a guy who can get that low. He's a great fit for a 3-4 scheme, and he's a legitimate Top-5 talent.

Aldon Smith - Smith is a guy I really didn't see much of this year, and he didn't make much of an impression against Iowa. I watched his game tape against Nebraska, and I think he has some nice moves when trying to rush on the inside. He used the swim effectively and was also able to really narrow his body when trying to shoot through a gap in the middle of the line. On run plays, he got outpowered at times, and I can see that as a problem for him at the next level. I like him more as a 3-4 backer than a 4-3 end, because of the strength issue. I think he can be an effective pass rusher, not great, but effective. I worry about him against running plays, because he often looked lost when trying to read plays. This might be something that is easier for him if he's standing at the linebacker spot than down on the line. Finally, I don't like his lack of aggression. He makes a lot of ankle tackles, and when he sees a teammate in the process of wrapping a guy up, he doesn't join the pile and get in on the gang tackle, but instead just pulls up and lets whaever happens happen. This really bothers me, as I don't see him as somebody who loves contact. He's got the physical attributes to be a solid 3-4 outside linebacker, but his lack of physicality would make me look elsewhere on draft day.

Phil Taylor - Watching Phil Taylor against Oklahoma State, I can definitely see why some are getting excited about him.  He's 330 pounds and can really disrupt plays with his size and power. If offensive linemen want to push him back while he wants to go forward, the best they can hope for is maintaining position. On a few plays, he really had excellent use of his hands. And when he stays low, he can and will drive the offensive lineman right into the backfield. He has trouble moving laterally as he more tries to shuffle his feet along instead of turning his hips and driving towards the direction he needs to go. That's my biggest concern about him as he's definitely a nose tackle in a 3-4 defense at the next level, but he needs to improve on that to avoid leaving big holes on misdirection plays. I'd look at him in the middle of the second, but I would let somebody else have him if they're looking at him as a first round pick.

Muhammad Wilkerson - He's a guy who has been getting a lot of hype lately as a possible first round selection. I watched his tape against Central Michigan, and I understand why people would like his frame, but I think it would be a huge mistake to take this guy in the first round. He played the 3-4 end in Temple's defense, but I see him as a defensive tackle in a 4-3 in the NFL. He's got a big body and some solid pass rush moves, but he's not real explosive. He never really got outpowered by anybody, but it was against Central Michigan, so I'm not going to give him a gold star for that. I see him as more of a third round prospect where you can draft him for his size and hope for above average performance after a few years.

-Joe

P.S. Here is a pretty awesome MMA video of famous mixed martial artists when they were fighting at smaller shows.