Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: AJ McCarron

AJ McCarron is the white sportswriter's dream. A quarterback (because other positions don't matter). A white quarterback (because white people don't have athleticism, so they must survive on grit and determination). A white quarterback who is a winner (you gotta be a winner). A white quarterback who is a winner with an attractive girlfriend (the girlfriend helps them fill out their word count). He's everything they could hope for, and they don't need to watch a single snap to know that he is what is right with quarterbacks. None of this is his fault, unless you want to blame him for having an attractive girlfriend, which I am not about to do. To win multiple national championships, you have to have an incredibly gifted quarterback, ideally one of the best 100 in the world, and AJ McCarron is no exception. But how good is he? Can he be a winner in the NFL? I was curious to find out, so I looked at the BCS National Championship game against Notre Dame, the shootout against Texas A+M, and his less heralded game against Virginia Tech.

One thing that surprised me was how good McCarron was at throwing on the move. He did a few designed rollouts and would occasionally roll out to avoid pressure and he showed really nice accuracy while on the move.

This is a nice ball where he leads his receiver to help him gain additional yardage after the catch.

The biggest issue that I noticed with McCarron is his accuracy, especially on short-to-intermediate routes. He was very inconsistent in properly leading receivers and a lot of times he gave his receiver no chance to make a play. This should be an easy throw as his man has his defender beat towards the middle of the field on the slant. Instead, AJ McCarron misses and throws it behind his receiver.

The only good news is that it was such a bad throw that the defender was unable to make a play on it.

This wasn't a one time issue either as he was very inconsistent on routes that should be routine.

There is no reason for him to be missing his receiver that badly on that short of a throw. Those are both easy throws and necessities to be even a competent quarterback in the NFL. The fact that he can miss this badly on short throws is a huge red flag.

Another question I have about him is his ability to quickly scan the field. He never really had to do this at Alabama, since his first option was almost always open. On the rare times that he wasn't, he usually had enough protection to not be in a hurry. There were a few cases where he was caught holding onto the ball too long in the Virginia Tech game, but from the sideline view, it is really hard to see if this is a vision issue or just very good coverage from the Tech secondary.

This is a great toss by McCarron that shows what type of talent he has with his arm.

This is a really nice throw 20 yards downfield right along the sideline. He actually looks better in that 15-20 yard range than he does in the 5-10 yard range.

He looks a little awkward when throwing this deep ball, but he does a nice job of placing them. He lays this right into the receiver's hands for an easy touchdown.

Still, his deep ball definitely floats a little bit as he doesn't drive through when delivering the ball. He didn't need to on this throw as there was no safety to come over the top. Still he shows good deep ball accuracy that is better than most college quarterbacks.

This was probably my favorite play from McCarron. He does a nice job of avoiding the pressure with a simple step to his left. He also originally was looking left, but after the rusher had passed, he looked to his right and fired a beautiful pass to a wide open receiver for a touchdown.

That is him showing the peak of all of his best qualities, all in one play. When he does stuff like that, it is easy to see why people get excited.

I was a little surprised from what I saw of the McCarron tape. It is surprisingly blah. His arm strength is fine, but it's not great. His awareness was fine, as he moved well in the pocket, but did not seem to do much of a job at scanning the field when his original target was covered. His accuracy was disappointing in the short-to-intermediate routes, yet it was more impressive as he threw it further down the field. Since I can't really decide what type of leader he is unless he somehow reads this post and wants to refute anything (invitation is open, AJ), I can't put much stock in that one way or the other. But when it comes to the package that I see on tape, I come away from it very uninspired. I'm putting him between Mettenberger and Boyd, and I believe he is much closer to the latter. I probably wouldn't feel comfortable spending a pick on him until the 5th round, as his inconsistent accuracy really worries me about his chances of succeeding in the NFL.

Here are my quarterback rankings for the prospects I have looked at so far:
1. Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville
2. Blake Bortles - Central Florida
3. Jimmy Garoppolo - Eastern Illinois
4. Zach Mettenberger - Louisiana State
5. AJ McCarron - Alabama
6. Tajh Boyd - Clemson
7. David Fales - San Jose State
8. Logan Thomas - Virginia Tech
9. Brett Smith - Wyoming
10. Aaron Murray - Georgia

Scouting Week 9 of College Football

Oh, Jameis Winston. You're very good at football. He has great placement on his balls. He also is thinking far ahead of most college (and even some pro) quarterbacks in the way that he will throw balls to protect his receivers. He threw a crossing route behind his receiver, and it saved his receiver from getting laid out by an NC State defensive back. Still, it's really hard to do much judging of him when his team is just dominating their opponents. Maybe Miami will give him a tough game next week, but I'm kind of doubting it.

Sammy Watkins is incredibly smooth as a receiver. The one thing that stood out for Alshon Jeffrey that Watkins has is the way he attacks the ball with his hands instead of waiting for it to come to him. Jeffrey has been so good that some people view him as the Bears true #1 receiver. I'm not quite ready to go there with him, but Watkins might be Jeffrey with more athleticism. He's just an incredibly reliable target.

Tajh Boyd, on the other hand, is just fine. He greatly benefits from the weapons around him, and he seems to lack a great feel for things. Last week, he lost the ball on a corner blitz when he was naturally rolling away from that blitz. This week, he failed to handle pressure repeatedly. He loses track of what is around him when he feels pressure, and he only survives on pure athleticism, which will not work at the next level.

AJ McCarron, and everyone on Alabama, drives me crazy, because there is just so much talent on that team that they can completely outclass opponents. How much credit does McCarron deserve? As I'm typing this, Christion Jones just took an end around for five yards; unsatisfied, he completely reversed field, and ended up picking up an additional 15. McCarron places his balls really well, but his receivers get so open that he really doesn't need to rocket anything in there.

From what I've seen, I would compare him to Andy Dalton, where he has the skillset to be competent at the next level. An interesting question is whether Andy Dalton was a good pick for the Bengals. He's good enough to guide them to the playoffs with the help of the best receiver in the league, a good offensive line, and a very good defense. I'm really not sure if that's a compliment or an insult. He's not Blaine Gabbert, which is good, but is their ceiling with a guy like him at QB a loss in the divisional round of the playoffs?

Anthony Barr is baffling me. He always takes advantage of mistakes, but it seems like he only makes plays off of mistakes. He's got a great speed rush, so if the offensive line doesn't get a good kick out in their initial set, he will blow right by them. I can't tell if his speed is so great that he makes people look like they have terrible technique or if his speed just kills terrible technique. He also has a great engine, and he does just keep moving and finding a way to make plays. I could see him being a lot like Aldon Smith, who is a guy I totally whiffed on. Before the draft, I'm going to try to watch tape from both guys to see if I am missing something on prospects like this.

Marcus Mariota is one guy who I have been waiting to study. I'm still not nearly as high on him as others seem to be. The first thing that leaps out is that he is an incredible athlete. His down field throws left a lot to be desired. In the second quarter, he completed a deep out, but he under threw it and it almost gave the defensive back a play on the ball. They turned the ball over on downs when he badly overthrew a receiver in the end zone. Too often, he just tries to fire the ball in there, but he has the ability to put touch on the ball. His touchdown pass in the game was a really nice ball that he made look very easy. He does do a good job of going through his reads. He doesn't panic and does a good job of setting and throwing. Oregon has a great offense, and that makes things easy on Mariota. Right now, I see him as a rich man's Kaepernick, so he definitely has first round value. Seeing how he handles pressure will provide a better idea of how high in the first round he should go.

Brett Hundley is just not impressive. I saw major issues when I watched him against Nebraska, and I continue to have the same concerns. The good about Hundley is obvious. He's athletic, and he has good arm strength. The most brutal part of his game was a terrible throw inside the red zone that led to an easy pick from Oregon. Hundley's touchdown pass before the end of the half was a nice ball, but that is where he succeeds. It was a throw over the middle where he was able to go to his first read. He recognized the blitz and knew that if his receiver was able to break inside the cornerback that it was just going to be a pitch and catch at that point. He also doesn't have a great feel inside the pocket as sometimes he panics when it is not necessary and other times he does not notice a defender nearby. The endzone camera would help on this, but he seemed to lock into receivers at times and fail completely on going through his progressions before trying to run. He zeroes in on a guy, which gives the safety a chance to break on routes, so instead of waiting for a receiver to get open, he telegraphs it so much that the coverage can adjust to his eyes. This is the reason he got picked off at the beginning of the fourth quarter, because the man in coverage was able to break on the pass before he even threw it. I don't hate him as a prospect, but I do think he could use another year, possibly two, in college to refine his game. If he came out this year, a team would really be gambling on a lot of different things coming together for him to work out at the next level.

DeAnthony Thomas is a guy who is dangerous in space, and I think if he is utilized correctly, he can be an impact player, but he's far more Darren Sproles than Warrick Dunn. I just don't see an every down back in him, and he has to be in a system that is designed for success.

I was digging Jordan Zumwalt, as there was a drive where he was basically trying to murder everyone on Oregon. He was always around the ball, and that guy is a player.

I love Brandin Cooks. I was only able to catch the oregon State-Stanford game at the bar, but that dude is a player. Very elusive and very good routes, finds holes in the defense and is a great asset for a quarterback. 

7 College Football Thoughts For Week 3 - Scouting Quarterbacks

1. First off, I was very underwhelmed by Brett Hundley. I know he won the game and by a large margin, but Nebraska's defense is just terrible. Hundley was just locking in on receivers and hesitating for a split second before throwing the ball. If the defense was reading his eyes at all, they were able to break on the ball before it was even in the air. When he actually did scan the field, it was never smooth and looked very robotic.

Hundley did show good mobility throughout the game and he seemed to have decent pocket awareness. One thing that I do wonder is whether he might be better with more pressure. He seemed to hold onto the ball long, because he had no pressure and maybe he would make quicker decisions and throws if he was forced to.

The good news is that he does have a good arm on him. He threw some nice balls and showed good accuracy for the most part. I would have liked to see more routes where he was forced to lead his receivers, but they threw a lot of curls and comebacks throughout the game. His touchdown pass down the near sideline was a thing of beauty.

2. Taylor Martinez...no. In all seriousness, he does a nice job in that offense, and he was pretty accurate early on, but the T-Magic stopped working in the second half. Also, he will always have two games a year where it's just brutal to watch him. Also, the arm strength isn't there for him to be a real quarterback prospect at the next level.

3. Teddy Bridgewater, on the other hand, is fun to watch. He is so smooth. He is able to go through his reads, and is willing to throw the ball away if nothing is there. Kentucky did a really nice job of taking away his first options and not letting him get anything deep, but he was willing to check down and take the gains that were open underneath. On top of that, he does some nice work with his play action where he will really hold that ball out until the last possible moment before keeping it for the pass play. Basically, just about everything about him is fantastic. He leads people  in stride, can throw it down field, it's all there. I love Clowney, but I have a very tough time believing that Bridgewater won't be the first pick in the draft.

4. For Blake Bell, I didn't watch a ton of the game, but man, that guy really floats his balls down the field. That won't work at the next level, but he was pretty damn accurate from what I saw, and if he can keep that up, Oklahoma has a good shot at the Big 12 title. He's not much of a prospect at the next level, but it's still fine to enjoy him for what he is.

5. Johnny Manziel was pretty impressive early on. Showing great accuracy when throwing the ball down the field. He was just tearing up Alabama with man-to-man, because he was either finding an open guy or was able to scramble, because everyone in coverage had their back to him. He was just taking his time and carving things up. His passes were incredibly accurate. It was all good.

Okay, so that stupid throw. It was 3rd and 8, so even if it gets picked, it doesn't really cost them that much, because they were going to be too far out for a field goal. They're looking at a pooch punt or a 4th and 8, which, even though he was rolling, is not an easy conversion. That being said, I think Johnny Manziel is just a madman who doesn't give a shit about anything, and none of that was actually going through his head. He really just wanted to make a play.

His interception in the end zone wasn't that bad. Not a great throw, but it wasn't done out of cockiness, as the CBS announcers stated. He just overthrew it a little and his receiver badly misjudged it. His interception at the beginning of the third quarter was much worse as he forced a ball into coverage, under threw the pass, and paid for it on a tip. His problem was that he was so successful throwing the ball down the field early on that he just kept doing it, and it eventually caught up to him. Also, the breaks just did not go their way, as Alabama really only stopped them with good defense on one drive in the first half. Otherwise, they were hurt by penalties, that first interception, and running out of time at the end of the half.

6. A.J. McCarron is solid in all aspects of the game. The arm strength is not going to wow you, but he knows what he's doing out there. He makes quick decisions in everything that he does. He also does a very good job of reading a defense before the ball is snapped to put him in a position to succeed. The toughest thing about scouting McCarron is he is surrounded by players on offense that are way better than any players he could face on defense. This is just as unique of a situation as trying to scout Marcus Mariota and the offense that Oregon runs to give them an advantage. I don't think he's been as good this year as he was last year, but the core skills are there for him to be successful.

7. I have heard Marcus Mariota rumored as a top QB prospect, and although I like him for the Eagles at the next level, I do not see him as a big time prospect for most teams. He's a fine thrower, but it is tough to put pressure on Oregon, and he showed an extreme lack of pocket awareness against Tennessee. I'll admit to seeing only about five plays from him in that game, but those are my initial thoughts from my limited view of him.