Showing posts with label Ben Revere. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ben Revere. Show all posts

Thursday, March 2, 2017

2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - AL West

Although baseball season is still a few weeks away, fantasy baseball season is here as draft rooms are opening and people are spending fake auction dollars on their favorite players. Everybody knows about the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world, so what you need to do stand out is find those hidden gems on each roster to propel yourself to fantasy greatness. I am going to go through each MLB roster to find at least one underrated player who will have you looking like a genius at the end of the season.

Today, we continue the series with a lack of East Coast bias and look into the AL West.

Houston Astros - Lance McCullers
Obviously, the big concern with McCullers is is health. He had major struggles with injuries last year, and it's definitely a concern going into this year, but there are very few young pitchers where injuries aren't a big concern. the other concern is his control as he walked five batters per nine last year, and that's not good. I think part of that is the injuries as he was just never able to get comfortable and find a groove druing the season. I think he can at least get his walk level back to its 2015 level, possibly even better. He's ranked 244 despite having a 3.22 ERA the last two years and striking out over a batter per inning (over 11 K/9 last year). He's probably not your 200 inning ace, but he could give you a really nice 160 innings, and getting that late in the draft sure sounds like a steal to me.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Ben Revere
Real talk, I had no idea that Ben Revere was on the Angels. I also kind of forgot that Cameron Maybin was on the Angels. But I'm still going with Revere, even though I'm not sure if he'll beat out Maybin for the starting job. I figure between Maybin's injury history combined with Albert Pujols getting another year older and needing some time off, they'll be able to find some space for Ben Revere. Two years ago, he hit .300, then his BABIP dropped by 100 points below his career average, and he batted .200. I think things just balance out again this year and he gives you a .300 average, with top 10 stolen base numbers and a good number of runs scored. He may not be the sexiest hitter, but he will be valuable.

Oakland Athletics - Marcus Semien
Semien managed 27 home runs last year, and I do think his average can come up from the .238 he hit last year. His BABIP was only .268, so if that gets closer to .300, it will not only increase his runs and RBI, but he can probably get closer to 20 stolen bases. Right now, he's ranked as the 18th best shortstop. Even if he doesn't improve, he'll be able to reach that level, but if the BABIP does bounce back and the power continues, you're looking at a top-10 guy.

Seattle Mariners - Mike Zunino
This pick is not sexy pick. Zunino is ranked as the 18th best catcher, and considering his struggle in the batting average category, he's probably never going to be a top guy. But he did rake at AAA last year and showed progress when he was in the major leagues. He hits for good power, and there are guys in the top-10 like Evan Gattis and Brian McCann who probably aren't that different than Zunino who you can probably pick up as a free agent.

Texas Rangers - Nomar Mazara
One of my common themes when picking guys is post-hype sleepers. Mazara got a ton of love at the beginning of 2016, but it seems as though he wore down as the season went on, and his numbers dropped accordingly. Last year, he still managed 20 home runs, and although I don't see the power taking a big step forward, I think the guy can flat out hit. He could easily be in the .280-.300 range, and with solid power, he'll be right in the middle of the Rangers lineup to rack up those counting stats. He's currently ranked as the 58th best outfielder, and I'd say it's a fairly good bet that he exceeds those expectations.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Cutting Your Losses in Fantasy Baseball

Since I spend an unhealthy amount of time following sports, I am pretty good when it comes to fantasy sports. I have won far more than I have lost, and that makes me happy. I wouldn't call myself an expert, but that's because I don't really believe in fantasy experts. It always takes some luck. But it also takes the ability to understand weaknesses. And not just others, but your own. I have learned that one of my biggest weaknesses is cutting my losses.

If I invest in a guy, I don't give a shit how bad of a season he is having, I put stake in him, and I fully assume that he will bounce back from whatever season long slump he has been in. I know it's stupid, but I can't even control myself in the moment. These are players that I am sticking by and are probably going to be my downfall in this fantasy baseball season.

Round 3 - Carlos Gomez
I'm not sure if I have ever felt worse about a draft pick as I was making it than I did when drafting Carlos Gomez. Max Scherzer got taken one pick before him, and I was down to Carlos Gomez and George Springer for the pick. I don't know why I didn't consider Buster Posey; it was just poor preparation, and I picked the wrong guy. But Carlos Gomez is still on my team, still starting for the most part, and still sucking ass. But maybe he'll turn the clock back a couple years for the final few months. That won't happen, but I still don't have the testicular fortitude to just cut his ass.

Round 6 - Jason Heyward
I didn't feel great about this one either, but Strasburg got taken one pick before him which really messed up my plans. I'm pretty sure he had more home runs in Spring Training than he has had in the regular season. If only there were years and years and years of evidence that Spring Training stats don't matter. Welp, couldn't have seen this coming. At least he has 8 stolen bases, so if he picks up the home run pace, he might become a 10-10 guy this season.

Round 11 - Michael Wacha
I keep thinking he's going to get to peak version of Michael Wacha, but that guy appears to be gone. He's just fine enough that I will never take the chance to upgrade from him.

Round 14 - Brett Lawrie
This is actually the guy who helped me write this. Lawrie has been a totally average player this year. He's not really good in any way, and he's definitely a guy you'd want to upgrade, but he wasn't so bad that I ever needed to upgrade. But as luck would have it, he got hurt. And it was right after Trea Turner started getting regular playing time for Nationals. My team had a desperate need for speed, so Turner is likely going to keep his spot, and Lawrie's gone when I need to free up a spot on my disabled list. I would have never just picked up Trea Turner, but sometimes luck is just as important as being good.

Trade - Ben Revere
I can't end on a high note. I traded for Ben Revere a couple months ago, thinking he'd turn it around. I traded a pitcher who I thought would start to go downhill. That pitcher was Aaron Sanchez who continues to dominate. Ben Revere has gotten better, but he's only a part-time player at this point, and I still hold onto him. It still sounds like Sanchez won't be a starter late in the season, so maybe it won't turn out so bad for me, but yeah, this is bad, and I will continue to only see the positive in Revere. 

I'm a stupid person. I guess the real key to fantasy is playing with people more stupid than you. That's my true key to success.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Seven

For a review of where we have been so far:

Part One - The Draft
Part Two - The Start of the Season
Part Three - Becoming a Seller
Part Four - The Rebuild
Part Five - The Trade Deadline
Part Six - The Stretch Run

And that leads us to the playoffs. By hook or by crook, with a whole lot of luck thrown in, my team not only made the playoffs but secured a first round bye. In an ironic twist, my opponent would come out of the two teams that I sold off my best assets to. It was the Greinke/Longoria/Uehara trifecta that bested the Braun/Tanaka combo.

In the biggest game of the season, my offense let the moment overwhelm them. Only Ben Revere, Jorge Soler, Eric Hosmer, and Leonys Martin had what could be described as average or better weeks. Meanwhile, our opponents were crushing the ball. We lost by 6 runs, 10 home runs, 20 RBI, 27 points of batting average, and a single stolen base. Only the last one really hurt, as it was necessary to get the victory. My ragtag group of players gave it their all, but it would not be enough to get a victory...

But my pitching would not be denied. Led by a 13 strikeout, one hitter from Jake Arrieta and two saves and a win for both David Robertson and Hector Rondon, my pitching managed to dominate in four categories. But, due to two pickups immediately picking up saves for my opponent, we were tied in Saves going into Sunday. I had one move left, and I had to decide whether it would be worth using it. Ultimately, I decided that I have to make the championship to win the championship, and I pulled the trigger to pick up interim San Diego Padres Closer, Kevin Quackenbush. He did not get a Save, but luckily, David Robertson did which locked up every pitching category for my team. The week would end in a 5-5 tie. Despite us having the same record, my seed was higher and hence I would be moving on to lead my team into the championship.

The odds were stacked against me in the championship. I was not only playing the number one seed, but he also had seven moves left to secure players as he pleased in the final week. This was another part of my reasoning to pick up Quackenbush as I could use Saves in the final week but stats like Wins and Ks would be tough to get since he could add pitchers as he pleased.

Still, my pitching was strong, and I figured my offense would bounce back after a lousy week. One of these things would prove true. Offensively, both teams were bad. Still, by the end of the week, he pulled away in RBI and average, but I pulled away in stolen bases. Saturday, he solidified his lead in runs. Meanwhile, despite all of his possible moves (he would end up using all seven), my pitching was proving strong. I took care of business in saves thanks to Quackenbush and Robertson getting a save, Rondon getting three, and Stroman adding a 4 inning save in there for good measure. I also had big leads in ERA and WHIP but barring a miracle, he was going to be too much for me in strikeouts.

Going into Sunday, a chance of getting the outright victory was slim. Unless my team got some major power on the final day, I would not be able to close his home run lead, so he was going to win five categories. Still, I could force the tie and split the big winnings for the championship as there are no tiebreakers in the championship round. I had three starters going, he had two, but I had a one win lead. With Cole Hamels, Alex Cobb, and Danny Salazar, I felt great about my chances.

Unfortunately, before the early games started, Salazar was a late scratch so they did not give him too many innings. It was 2 on 2 at this point, but I had what were likely my two best pitchers. Alex Cobb finally ran out of steam, as he had a pour outing against Salazar's replacement and the rest of the Cleveland Indians. Meanwhile, Hamels gave up only two runs in eight innings, but the Phillies only scored one.

One of his pitchers was Jordan Zimmermann, whose team also only gave him one run of support. Unfortunately, that was plenty, as he only allowed one baserunner in a no-hitter on the final day of the season. With all of his extra moves, he was able to get the tie in wins and beat me 5-4-1.

There would be no Natural Light celebrations. There would be no team of destiny stories. We were hard luck losers, but I was still damn proud. Usually, the almost champs never have their story told, but with the heart, determination, and chemistry of 25 guys coming together to make a team deserved to have their story shared with the world.

There are so many things that I could expound on, but let's take a break until we get to part eight of the longest fantasy baseball story ever told.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Six

For a review of where we have been so far:

Part One - The Draft
Part Two - The Start of the Season
Part Three - Becoming a Seller
Part Four - The Rebuild
Part Five - The Trade Deadline

So did all of my moves pay off? Immediately, things were looking pretty good. I was facing a playoff team with the likes of Stanton, Altuve, and Felix, but my team took them behind the woodshed and put a beating on them. Chris Carter led the offense by providing 6 runs, two home runs, seven RBI, and even a stolen base all while batting over .300. On the pitching side, Odorizzi, Salazar, Hamels, Arrieta, and Stroman were all on point. It was an 8-1-1 victory and my fifth straight win.

That matchup was the beginning of the toughest stretch of the season, as it was the first of five straight weeks against every team that would be in the playoffs. Next up was the team that I traded Carlos Gomez to (whoops) as well as Longoria, Greinke, and Uehara. He had won four in a row, and we were tied in the standings so I needed this one. Luckily I had Chris Carter to hit three homers, and Utley, Sandoval, and recent acquisition, JJ Hardy, to add two apiece. The pitching was nearly as good with Eovaldi, Odorizzi, Stroman, and Hamels all adding dominant starts to carry my team to a dominant 7-1-2 victory.

After that, it was time to play the first place team. They hadn't lost in seven weeks. Chris Carter came up big again as he hit four home runs during the week. Jake Arrieta led the pitching staff with two strong starts during the week, yet it was still close going into Sunday. I held a slight lead going into Sunday, but luck was not on my side. I scored a solid 6 runs on Sunday, but he scored 10 to take the lead in that category. While I hit .269 on the final day, he hit .365 to take a .007 advantage in batting average. And finally, despite having Salazar and Arrieta giving up a combined two runs, neither got a win, while he managed to get a win out of Neftali Feliz to take over the lead in that category. My team put up a strong week, but it was not enough, as we lost 6-4.

I was tied for third, but just a game out of second place with three weeks left. Luckily, I would be playing that second place team the following week, and my team was not one to let a single loss get them down, it just made them more determined. This week wasn't pretty, but we managed a solid enough performance. Justin Upton had 11 RBI, and Ben Revere and Leonys Martin combined for five stolen bases to help the offense, while Hector Rondon managed four saves to give me the 7-6 edge, and a 6-4 victory.

Unfortunately, that week also marked Gregory Polanco getting sent down the minors. Since I knew he would be called up in about a week when rosters expanded, I was not ready to get rid of him. My DL spots got filled up by Sean Doolittle getting hurt, so it was time to get rid of some wasted space and boost my outfield. Luckily, the perfect guy just called up to the majors.

I dropped Matt Cain and acquired Jorge Soler in free agency.

I was down to only two moves, and unfortunately, Wilin Rosario was hitting the DL meaning that I would have to get another catcher, so I picked up Travis d'Arnaud while finally ridding my team of Joey Votto.

He had won four in a row, but my team would not let him make it five. Soler and Carter both hit three home runs. Carter did it while hitting .222 while Soler batted .538. Eovaldi, Odorizzi, and Cobb all got double digit strikeouts for the week, which was enough to give me a couple pitching categories. Stolen bases from Ben Revere and Jose Abreu on Sunday were enough to get me a tie in that category for a gritty 5-4-1 victory.

With one week left, there was a three-way tie for second place and an all-important bye in the first round. There would be no drama for my team, as we were playing the worst team in the league, nearly all of my pitchers dominated and Chris Carter added three home runs, while d'Arnaud hit a bomb of his own while hitting over .500. The other two teams won as well, but I had the tiebreaker. This infuriated another member of the league as he felt he should have been #2 or #3 but was instead given the #4 seed. Maybe my favorite moment of the year was him calling me to tell me that he had just talked to ESPN Customer Support to figure out the tiebreakers (turns out it was whoever won the most categories in their matchups throughout the year).

But all that means is that I won nine out of my last ten matchups to earn a bye in the first round despite having the same record as two other teams in the league. It was time to take the week off and let my team rest for the journey ahead, because this Cinderella was ready to wear her slipper. But we will get to all of that in part seven.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Four

After a good but not great draft, my team started off hot, but the writing was on the wall. That led to me selling off almost all of my top draft picks so I could worry about next year.

At this point, my team was 5-5-2. We were right in the hunt for the last playoff spot but considering all of the talent I had lost via trade, I was going to be an underdog in just about every matchup for the rest of the year. But due to some savvy free agent acquisitions and a whole lot of scrappiness, my team refused to lie down.

It started off with some good luck in scheduling as I took on the second worst team in the league and got three stolen bases apiece from Polanco and Revere while Marcus Stroman had two very strong starts to lead my pitching staff to victory to get the team back over .500.

Unfortunately, I couldn't rig the schedule to only play the worst teams in the league the rest of the year, and I ran up against a team that was ahead of me in the standings due to a plethora of starting pitching. Still, due to dominant starts by Hutchison, Stroman, and Arrieta and help in relief from Robertson and Rondon (I call them R&R, because there is no need to worry with these guys closing out games), my pitching led the way and a couple stolen bases from BJ Upton and Ben Revere got me a tie in stolen bases to eke out a 5-4-1 victory to put me two games over .500. Also, at the end of the week, I finally conceded that Andrew Heaney was probably not coming back to the majors anytime soon after his disastrous first starts and made a crucial free agent pickup.

I acquired Jake Odorizzi in free agency. 

My pitching was coming together, and it was at this point that I started to believe in my chances. I was no longer looking towards the future, because the future was now.

The next week would prove important for three reasons. First off, I noticed that somebody dropped a player I was quite fond of as a spot opened up on my roster due to a DL stint.

I acquired Eric Hosmer on waivers.

The good news was that I got Hosmer; the only downside was that I was running out of moves. That was my 21st acquisition which left me with just four remaining pickups for the rest of the year. Oh yeah, and I also had the completely worthless Dylan Bundy on my roster. This leads me to the second important thing that happened that week.

I trade Dylan Bundy and a 12th round football pick for Justin Verlander and a 14th round football pick.

I was betting on Verlander putting it together in the second half, and although he was never Verlanderian, he was always better than Bundy, he didn't cost me a move, and the man knows how to perform in the playoffs (even if those are only the fantasy playoffs).

As for the third important thing that happened that week? Well, you'll just have to wait until next time for me to get into that one.

Monday, October 6, 2014

The Longest Fantasy Baseball Story Ever Told - Part Three

We started at the draft, and then left off with my team sitting at .500 and needing something drastic to happen to get this team on the right track.

That something happened on June 4. My two months of attempting to trade Ryan Braun finally paid off, but instead of looking to reload my roster, I decided it was time to rebuild and focus on the upcoming basketball season while throwing in the towel on baseball. I would not only lose Braun but also a pitcher that dominated in the first two months of the season.

I traded away Ryan Braun, Masahiro Tanaka, my 8th and 11th round basketball picks for Josh Willingham, Jorge De La Rosa, a 2nd and 3rd round basketball pick and the right to swap first round picks in an upcoming basketball draft. 

It was tough to lose Tanaka, but this baseball team just didn't have what it took to contend. Just two days later, I would complete the selling process with another trade that hurt just as much as the first one.

I traded Evan Longoria, Zack Greinke, Koji Uehara, my 9th and 12th round basketball picks for Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joe Smith, Juan Francisco, a first round basketball pick and a conditional basketball pick depending on how many home runs Longoria had the rest of the year. It was guaranteed to be at least an 8th, would move up to a 6th if he hit ten more homers, and up to a 5th if he hit 20 more homers (it became a 6th). 

These moves decimated my team for all intents and purposes, but right around this time, I made two pickups that seemed to be minor but would change the course of my season.

In free agency, I picked up Ben Revere and Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman had recently gotten blown up as a reliever, but he was getting a shot in the starting rotation. As an undersized person, I love undersized pitchers, so Stroman was a guy I had coveted for a while. Ben Revere was an empty batting average and stolen bases, but if he could do those two things well enough, he could definitely add value, and it wasn't like I didn't have the space to give some new guys a try. Those are moves that worked, but a few days later, I also added Andrew Heaney and Dylan Bundy with speculation that they would be called up soon. Heaney was called up soon, but did not deliver results and Bundy was completely worthless. But hey, you can't win 'em all.

Not shockingly, my team lost immediately after trading away five of my best players. Although, I was selling for this year, I'm always looking for value for next year, so I did the logical thing and made another trade.

I traded Jorge De La Rosa, and a 9th round football pick for Gregory Polanco, a 15th round football pick, and the right to swap 7th round football picks.

Polanco had been drafted in the 25th round, which means he would only cost me a 23rd to keep in 2015. This was worth a later half football pick to me, as all of my trades had left me with nobody to keep but Jose Abreu.

Partially led by Gregory Polanco, I won my next matchup against the worst team to get back up over .500. It was short lived, as I lost my next matchup by falling one run and one RBI short to go back to .500. Still, it was an important week, as I made this move.

I picked up Jake Arrieta in free agency. 

With Revere, Stroman, Polanco, and Arrieta, there were winds of change on the horizon.

But this is only part three, you'll have to wait for part four to get to that story.