Cutting Your Losses in Fantasy Baseball

Since I spend an unhealthy amount of time following sports, I am pretty good when it comes to fantasy sports. I have won far more than I have lost, and that makes me happy. I wouldn't call myself an expert, but that's because I don't really believe in fantasy experts. It always takes some luck. But it also takes the ability to understand weaknesses. And not just others, but your own. I have learned that one of my biggest weaknesses is cutting my losses.

If I invest in a guy, I don't give a shit how bad of a season he is having, I put stake in him, and I fully assume that he will bounce back from whatever season long slump he has been in. I know it's stupid, but I can't even control myself in the moment. These are players that I am sticking by and are probably going to be my downfall in this fantasy baseball season.

Round 3 - Carlos Gomez

I'm not sure if I have ever felt worse about a draft pick as I was making it than I did when drafting Carlos Gomez. Max Scherzer got taken one pick before him, and I was down to Carlos Gomez and George Springer for the pick. I don't know why I didn't consider Buster Posey; it was just poor preparation, and I picked the wrong guy. But Carlos Gomez is still on my team, still starting for the most part, and still sucking ass. But maybe he'll turn the clock back a couple years for the final few months. That won't happen, but I still don't have the testicular fortitude to just cut his ass.

Round 6 - Jason Heyward

I didn't feel great about this one either, but Strasburg got taken one pick before him which really messed up my plans. I'm pretty sure he had more home runs in Spring Training than he has had in the regular season. If only there were years and years and years of evidence that Spring Training stats don't matter. Welp, couldn't have seen this coming. At least he has 8 stolen bases, so if he picks up the home run pace, he might become a 10-10 guy this season.

Round 11 - Michael Wacha

I keep thinking he's going to get to peak version of Michael Wacha, but that guy appears to be gone. He's just fine enough that I will never take the chance to upgrade from him.

Round 14 - Brett Lawrie

This is actually the guy who helped me write this. Lawrie has been a totally average player this year. He's not really good in any way, and he's definitely a guy you'd want to upgrade, but he wasn't so bad that I ever needed to upgrade. But as luck would have it, he got hurt. And it was right after Trea Turner started getting regular playing time for Nationals. My team had a desperate need for speed, so Turner is likely going to keep his spot, and Lawrie's gone when I need to free up a spot on my disabled list. I would have never just picked up Trea Turner, but sometimes luck is just as important as being good.

Trade - Ben Revere

I can't end on a high note. I traded for Ben Revere a couple months ago, thinking he'd turn it around. I traded a pitcher who I thought would start to go downhill. That pitcher was Aaron Sanchez who continues to dominate. Ben Revere has gotten better, but he's only a part-time player at this point, and I still hold onto him. It still sounds like Sanchez won't be a starter late in the season, so maybe it won't turn out so bad for me, but yeah, this is bad, and I will continue to only see the positive in Revere. 

I'm a stupid person. I guess the real key to fantasy is playing with people more stupid than you. That's my true key to success.

The Best and Worst of My 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft - Part 2

Hey everybody, baseball is here. Last week, I had my fantasy baseball draft, and it sure was a doozy. Unfortunately, this past weekend was also WrestleMania, so I didn't have time to write about it before the season started. Still, people need to know whether their draft was good, bad, or ugly, so I'll be focusing on the best picks, the worst picks, and my pick in each round. It's super simple this year, just a straight 5X5 head-to-head 10 team league with 29 rounds. Who did the best? Me, probably. Who did the worst? I don't know. Part one was published on Monday, but now onto part two.

ROUND 11
101 Elvis Andrus, Tex SS Joc Jams Volume 1
102 Randal Grichuk, StL OF Team Asaysian
103 Anthony Rendon, Wsh 2B The Nasty Boys
104 Gregory Polanco, Pit OF Team GreinkMyCrank
105 Kolten Wong, StL 2B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
106 Michael Brantley, Cle OF Regular Ass Joel
107 Michael Wacha, StL SP   Team Pedigree
108 Maikel Franco, Phi 3B Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
109 Evan Longoria, TB 3B Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
110 Josh Harrison, Pit 3B Total Jocs

Best Pick: Evan Longoria
Longoria isn't what he used to be, but as an 11th round pick, I can't think of doing much better. Even if he is what he is at this point, he's worth about that, and there is still the chance that he recovers some of his early career form and outproduces this position by quite a bit.

Worst Pick: Randal Grichuk
I'm selling on Grichuk. He struck out a ton last year, and although he might be able to hit 25 home runs, I think it's likely with a .230 average. Does that keep him starting every day, or is he more of a platoon bat at that point? And yes, I do realize that it's crazy to go against Cardinals Devil Magic, but I have a good reason because...

My Pick: Michael Wacha
Wacha's taking all that devil magic for himself this year. Wacha was cruising along before he seemingly ran out of gas at the end of last year. I think he can put together good Wacha for the entire year, and if that's the case, I got myself a nice little pitcher in the 11th round. He's got modest upside with seemingly little downside, so it's not an electrifying pick, but it will be an effective one.

ROUND 12
111 Ketel Marte, Sea SS Total Jocs
112 Shin-Soo Choo, Tex OF Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
113 Aroldis Chapman, NYY RP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
114 Corey Dickerson, TB OF   Team Pedigree
115 Kole Calhoun, LAA OF Regular Ass Joel
116 Cody Allen, Cle RP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
117 Francisco Liriano, Pit SP Team GreinkMyCrank
118 Adam Eaton, CWS OF The Nasty Boys
119 Zach Britton, Bal RP Team Asaysian
120 Evan Gattis, Hou DH Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Adam Eaton
Adam Eaton might be mentally handicapped as he saw a 14-year-old as a leader, but baseball players don't have to be smart to be good. Last year he was good, and he'll probably be good again. I don't see it as a high upside play, but this is the point in the draft where you're just looking for solid contributions from your picks.

Worst Pick: Aroldis Chapman
Chapman may be the best closer in the game, but the dude is dead weight during his suspension, and even when he comes back, it's no guarantee that he is going to be the closer for the Yankees with both Miller and Betances also in the bullpen. The reward could be pretty good, but I think it's far too risky with significant downside early on to take that chance.

My Pick: Corey Dickerson
The Rays are still super smart, right? Oh god, they might be dumb? Well, crap, because this pick was based solely on the Rays being smart and seeing some great value in Dickerson. At this point, it came down to him or Adam Eaton, and I couldn't pull the trigger on the guy who thought a 14-year-old was a leader. I'll admit it's not exciting, but it should be fine for Round 12.

ROUND 13
121 Michael Pineda, NYY SP Joc Jams Volume 1
122 Brandon Crawford, SF SS Team Asaysian
123 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY SP The Nasty Boys
124 Jeurys Familia, NYM RP Team GreinkMyCrank
125 Addison Russell, ChC 2B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
126 DJ LeMahieu, Col 2B Regular Ass Joel
127 Jeff Samardzija, SF SP   Team Pedigree
128 Kevin Pillar, Tor OF Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
129 Neil Walker, NYM 2B Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
130 Lucas Duda, NYM 1B Total Jocs

Best Pick: Masahiro Tanaka
Since I like to base a ton off of what I see in person, I like the Tanaka pick. He looked like he was keeping hitters off balance when I saw him face off against the Orioles during Spring Training. Was Machado in the lineup? No. How about Chris Davis? No. Adam Jones? Nope. Pedro Alvarez or Mark Trumbo? Nope and nope. Were there any starters in the Orioles lineup? Well, I'm not totally familiar with the Orioles lineup, but no, I don't believe so. But Tanaka did look good, and that's enough for me.

Worst Pick: DJ LeMahieu
I don't have strong takes on this round, but there isn't much in LeMahieu's history to show that he should be a quality major league hitter, so I'll bet on his BABIP dropping and him losing a lot of his value.

My Pick: Jeff Samardzija
I thought Samardzija was going to be really good two years ago and he was. Last year, I didn't have any interest in him, and that turned out to be another good idea. This year, I just kind of threw a dart and figured he'd be good because he was back in the NL and in a very friendly pitcher's park. This may not be my best pick, but once Addison Russell went off the board, I figured a former Cub would have to due.

ROUND 14
131 Ken Giles, Hou RP Total Jocs
132 Ben Zobrist, ChC 2B Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
133 David Robertson, CWS RP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
134 Brett Lawrie, CWS 3B   Team Pedigree
135 Jonathan Lucroy, Mil C Regular Ass Joel
136 Brett Gardner, NYY OF Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
137 Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B Team GreinkMyCrank
138 Ian Desmond, Tex SS The Nasty Boys
139 Justin Turner, LAD 3B Team Asaysian
140 Mark Melancon, Pit RP Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Ian Desmond
I'm a big believer in the Ian Desmond bounceback year. As long as he can be competent in the outfield, he should be good to go on putting up at least 15-15, and at shortstop, that's going to have some good value, even if the average is only around .260.

Worst Pick: Ken Giles
Ken Giles has been garbage every time I have seen him in spring training (twice), and the fact that the Astros didn't want to totally commit to him as the closer over Luke Gregerson. Even if he gets the closer role, he'll be on a tight leash, and there were plenty of closers in better situations to take at this point in the draft.

My Pick: Brett Lawrie
There are people predicting a breakout for Brett Lawrie. This has happened for five years now, and since 2011, it just hasn't happened. Last year showed a slight uptick in production, and that was when he moved to a pitcher's park. Now he's in a hitter's park, so maybe this is the year. He was the last guy that was second base eligible that I felt comfortable starting, so here we are, ready for the ever elusive Lawrie Breakout.

ROUND 15
141 Justin Verlander, Det SP Joc Jams Volume 1
142 Hector Rondon, ChC RP Team Asaysian
143 A.J. Ramos, Mia RP The Nasty Boys
144 Byron Buxton, Min OF Team GreinkMyCrank
145 Dellin Betances, NYY RP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
146 Jay Bruce, Cin OF Regular Ass Joel
147 Yu Darvish, Tex SP   Team Pedigree
148 Raisel Iglesias, Cin SP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
149 Jordan Zimmermann, Det SP Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
150 Mark Trumbo, Bal OF Total Jocs

Best Pick: Mark Trumbo
I'm a really big fan of the Orioles offense this year. They have guys like Machado and Adam Jones, but then they have Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Pedro Alvarez. Three huge sluggers who strike out a ton, but crush a ton of baseballs. Like, you might get 120 home runs out of those three guys. Probably more like 100, but still. So yes, I like Trumbo for a bounceback year.

Worst Pick: Jordan Zimmermann
He really fell off last year, and now he's going to the American League and probably isn't going to magically bounce back. I just don't see much upside in this pick and wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't worth owning this year.

My Pick: Yu Darvish
I will fully admit that I may have jumped the gun on snagging Darvish this early, but I really wanted Yu Darvish. He is coming off of a major injury and might be slow to regain his old form, but I think by the end of the year, he's going to be rolling, and that's the time of the year when I need my boy to shine.

ROUND 16
151 Jaime Garcia, StL SP Total Jocs
152 Kendrys Morales, KC DH Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
153 Billy Burns, Oak OF Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
154 Carlos Santana, Cle 1B   Team Pedigree
155 Jung Ho Kang, Pit 3B Regular Ass Joel
156 Ender Inciarte, Atl OF Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
157 Julio Teheran, Atl SP Team GreinkMyCrank
158 Shelby Miller, Ari SP The Nasty Boys
159 Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 1B Team Asaysian
160 Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Julio Teheran
Teheran had a poor year last year, but he's young and will likely bounce back. At worst, he'll probably produce around the 150th most value, but he provides decent upside to become a top 100 guy.

Worst Pick: Jaime Garcia
Would you like to bet on Jaime Garcia staying healthy for the entire season? If so, I will gladly take the other side of that bet.

My Pick: Carlos Santana
I think Santana can hit .270. If he does that with his power, he could be an absolute stud this year. I know he hasn't done it yet, and he's practically Brett Lawrie with people predicting a breakout, but I'm ready for this breakout. And this gives me the added benefit of changing my team name to something involving the song, "Smooth."

ROUND 17
161 Mark Teixeira, NYY 1B Joc Jams Volume 1
162 Steven Matz, NYM SP Team Asaysian
163 Brian McCann, NYY C The Nasty Boys
164 Jake Odorizzi, TB SP Team GreinkMyCrank
165 Jose Quintana, CWS SP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
166 Yordano Ventura, KC SP Regular Ass Joel
167 Jake McGee, Col RP   Team Pedigree
168 Curtis Granderson, NYM OF Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
169 Matt Duffy, SF 3B Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
170 Joc Pederson, LAD OF Total Jocs

Best Pick: Jake Odorizzi
Not gonna lie, I was pretty jealous of this pick. Odorizzi has been really good these last two years. His only real issue last year was an injury, but it wasn't serious, and I don't see any reason to think he's more injury prone than any other pitcher. He's probably going to be very good, and I wish he was on my team.

Worst Pick: Curtis Granderson
Granderson seems to do just enough to keep people believing in him. Last year, he had that year that made people believe, so it should inevitably be followed by a couple years where people ask themselves why they were buying into Curtis Granderson. I will not buy into you Curtis, but keep getting paid, playa.

My Pick: Jake McGee
I needed a closer. McGee is a closer. I'm aware that he plays in Colorado, which isn't great, but if Huston Street can be just as effective, I see no reason McGee can't do the same.

ROUND 18
171 Anibal Sanchez, Det SP Total Jocs
172 Drew Smyly, TB SP Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
173 Starlin Castro, NYY SS Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
174 Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SP   Team Pedigree
175 Logan Forsythe, TB 2B Regular Ass Joel
176 Kenta Maeda, LAD SP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
177 Francisco Rodriguez, Det RP Team GreinkMyCrank
178 Huston Street, LAA RP The Nasty Boys
179 Salvador Perez, KC C Team Asaysian
180 Mike Moustakas, KC 3B Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Drew Smyly
Smyly somehow rehabbed an injury and avoided surgery when everyone thought he was going to have to have surgery. So there is definite risk, but when he is healthy, he's a really good pitcher, and this is the point where it makes sense to take chances on guys like that.

Worst Pick: Francisco Rodriguez
Wasn't he supposed to be done as a top-level reliever like four years ago? I'm not buying into this whole smoke and mirrors version of K-Rod. I'm going to bet that he's either injured or ineffective, neither of which is a good thing.

My Pick: Gio Gonzalez
I was trying to get Gio Gonzalez for most of the season last year. I finally got him with like a month left in the year, and he did not magically become the pitcher I thought he'd be. But maybe this year he will be. I think he can cut down on the walks and hits he gave up, and if he does that, he could turn back into the #2 pitcher that people thought he was going into last year. If not, he's still not that bad of an 18th round pick.

ROUND 19
181 Travis d'Arnaud, NYM C Joc Jams Volume 1
182 Victor Martinez, Det DH Team Asaysian
183 Mike Fiers, Hou SP The Nasty Boys
184 Joe Panik, SF 2B Team GreinkMyCrank
185 Russell Martin, Tor C Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
186 Howie Kendrick, LAD 2B Regular Ass Joel
187 Glen Perkins, Min RP   Team Pedigree
188 Pedro Alvarez, Bal 1B Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
189 John Lackey, ChC SP Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
190 Brad Miller, TB SS Total Jocs

Best Pick: Pedro Alvarez
Like I said in Round 15, I love the Orioles offense, and a bounceback from Pedro Alvarez is a big reason why.

Worst Pick: Victor Martinez
I bet against Victor Martinez two years ago, and he made me look like a butthole. I bet against him last year and had my revenge. Now it's time for the tiebreaker. You will not be good this year, Victor Martinez, and if you are, well, I'll bet against you again next year.

My Pick: Glen Perkins
Alvarez was a guy I really wanted but my computer started messing up, so I got my phone fired up just in time to draft, but I just wanted to make sure I didn't get stuck with a jabroni, so I took the highest rated guy in my queue. Alvarez was waiting just a little ways down, but I'm actually pretty happy with Perkins as he is a closer that I have a lot of confidence in.

ROUND 20
191 Stephen Piscotty, StL OF Total Jocs
192 Scott Kazmir, LAD SP Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
193 Patrick Corbin, Ari SP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
194 Carlos Rodon, CWS SP   Team Pedigree
195 Alex Rodriguez, NYY DH Regular Ass Joel
196 Luis Severino, NYY SP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
197 Taijuan Walker, Sea SP Team GreinkMyCrank
198 James Shields, SD SP The Nasty Boys
199 Mike Leake, StL SP Team Asaysian
200 Wei-Yin Chen, Mia SP Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Taijuan Walker
Walker turned it on after a really rough start early in the year. If he had just been in the minors before he put things together, he would have been drafted about seven rounds earlier, but his rough start skewed his final numbers, and this is a nice pick for round 20.

Worst Pick: Scott Kazmir
I doubt I will ever buy into a post-prime improvement from someone, and Kazmir has proved me wrong the last few years, but I'll bet on the magic running out this season.

My Pick: Carlos Rodon

Rodon was incredibly underrated by ESPN's rankings, so he fell to Round 20. That is a huge blessing for me, as Rodon has the raw stuff to emerge as one of the best pitchers in the American League. I'm not betting on all that happening this year, but I do think he takes a step in that direction.

And so goes part two. Part 3 will be coming in the next couple days.