Yesterday, I showed my positive side by looking at the most underrated prospects in the 2015 NFL Draft. But with every yin, there must be a balancing yang, and today is that balance of negativity as I look at the most overrated prospects in the upcoming draft.
RB - Melvin Gordon - Wisconsin
I don't think Gordon is a bad runing back, but I also don't think he's worthy of a first round pick. The people saying that it's close between Gordon and Gurley have definitely watched those two guys play and are basing that purely off statistics. Melvin Gordon is the best running back to come out of Wisconsin in recent years, but is that really that great of an accomplishment? Every Wisconsin back has put up impressive numbers, but considering the success of Ron Dayne, John Clay, Montee Ball, and James White (although I am still a James White believer), it's tough to say how great of a back Gordon really is. What I'll say is I think he's good, but I'm not sure if he's any better than the second tier of running backs, so I would hold off instead of using a high pick on Gordon.
WR - Sammie Coates - Auburn
Yes, he's big, fast, and explosive as an athlete. But he can't catch, and that's, like, a really big deal for a wide receiver. There are certain things a coach can help with, but if Coates hasn't learned to reliably track a football and complete a catch at this point in his football career, it probably ain't happenin'.
Edge - Randy Gregory - Nebraska
Honestly, I think Gregory has fallen quite a ways with his failed drug test, but he was seen as a top-5 pick after the season, and I just never saw it. There's not a lot of power in him, so he's going to have to be a speed rusher, and I didn't see enough moves to give most offensive linemen trouble. Rushing is his biggest strength, and I'm not sure if it's enough to make him a full-time pass rusher.
CB - Trae Waynes - Michigan State
I don't get this guy at all. Okay, I guess I get him a little bit, he's very athletic, but there is no way this guy is a shutdown corner. I don't see him as a first round prospect, and I don't see how anybody who watched him against Baylor could think that he is. I have consistently seen receivers get open, and it's not that the receivers are doing anything special, but Waynes isn't physical and doesn't change direction very well. That's not a great combination for a cornerback.
SS - Landon Collins
I am leery of any Alabama safety. Just looking at their success at the NFL level, it seems like they are not a good bet. Safeties are really tough to scout from the sideline view, but there are already plenty of question marks about his ability to react to passes and how he will hold up in coverage. This is a weak draft for safeties, but even with the lack of top-tier talent, a first round pick is likely to be a mistake.
Prospects get hyped for different reasons, but I feel as if these guys hype far outweighs their future potential. Still, best of luck to them. They are all about to be a whole lot richer than me.
With the college football season over, the 2015 NFL Draft season immediately starts up to fill that void. I plan to take a look at all of the top quarterback prospects but will also be willing to take suggestions if there are prospects at other positions that you would like to see analyzed. But my bread and butter is quarterback play (a position I still feel is underrated in the draft). Today, I am taking a look at Baylor Bears Quarterback, Bryce Petty.
Much like Marcus Mariota, Bryce Petty has people questioning his accomplishments at the college level based on the offense that he performed in. Unfortunately for Petty, that is where the comparisons basically stop for Petty as he is not seen as a top talent in this year's draft. Art Briles has set up an offense for his quarterbacks to be successful, but it's tough to say whether that will translate to the NFL level. After Robert Griffin III's rookie year, people argued that he was better than Andrew Luck. Those people were most definitely wrong, but I'm not ready to label RG3 as a bust yet as health combined with a consistent offensive scheme may be all he needs to be an upper-echelon quarterback in the NFL. But I'm not here to talk about Mariota, Luck, or RG3, I'm here to talk about Bryce Petty. Thanks to Draft Breakdown, I was able to look at his 2014 games against West Virginia and Kansas State as well as a 2013 game against Oklahoma.
Mobility
Let's get this out of the way. Petty in no way resembles RG3 when it comes to speed. Although they would run a read option with Petty, that did not play to his strengths as shown here.
He's not completely immobile, but no coach at the pro level will consistently call read options with Petty.
Pocket Awareness
He doesn't have a great feel for when pressure is coming on him, as he will often stand in the pocket and make no movements to avoid pressure. This is the most egregious example.
Petty has to know that he has to get rid of the ball quickly when he is standing in his own endzone. His first option wasn't open, but he should have an automatic read at that point to get rid of the football in any way possible. Instead, he waits and gets nailed by a blitzer coming off the edge on his blindside.
Here is an even more egregious example against West Virginia.
The blindside may be acceptable, but he consistently takes the full brunt of hits, which will definitely lead to sacks, likely fumbles, and probable injuries.
When Bryce Petty feels pressure, his first instinct is to run. It was rare that he was able to move within the pocket to avoid a rush and complete a pass.
Here he adjusts to the pressure well and has a pocket to throw from, but he puts his head down and just plows forward. I will admit that this is a problem with the sideline camera, as there is no way to tell what routes Baylor's receivers were running, and considering the propensity to go deep, there may not have been a reasonable route to throw to. The point still stands as he bails out on passing when feeling pressure, and he's simply not athletic enough to make that work consistently.
Decision Making
Petty has to trust his arm. In Baylor's offense, he got accustomed to guys being wide open for his throws, but he has to be willing to challenge defenders and trust his receivers to make plays. This is an excellent example of when he hesitated and it cost him.
He sees his receiver running open on a slant and is ready to throw but he doesn't trust that he can fit the ball in there due to a closing pocket or closing coverage, but this is a throw that he simply has to make. After he doesn't, it's just a matter of time before Oklahoma brings him down for the sack.
He's a little slow on the draw when it comes to throwing the football. Instead of anticipating his receiver making his move on the comeback, he waits for that receiver to make the move before throwing the ball.
This ball was completed, but that was because of great protection and the defender sinking too far off in coverage. If he consistently waits that long, it's a great way to throw costly interceptions.
Accuracy
One thing that I did like about Petty on his slants is that he did a very good job of leading receivers. He understood where his receivers were going as opposed to where they were.
This is a ball that he has to deliver with velocity to avoid the middle linebacker, and he puts it in front of his receiver who is able to gain big yards after the catch because of the placement of the ball. You could nitpick that it was a little out in front, but I'll take that ball on a slant nine out of ten times (Super Bowl excluded).
Summary
This report probably seems like the most negative one that I have written, but I'm not that down on Bryce Petty. The problem with Petty is that I kept waiting for throws to wow me, and I just didn't see them. It was all slants and deep balls, and the deep ball accuracy was nothing special. Their whole offense is designed to consistently beat a defense underneath until the big play opens up over the top. Bryce Petty is totally fine when it is pitch and catch. When things go wrong, it usually doesn't end well as Petty fails to adjust to pressure. But nothing is all that bad. He can scan the field, has decent mechanics, solid arm strength, but I keep coming back to the same conclusion. The whole package is nothing special. I don't see him as a starter in the NFL, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was able to stick around for a while as a backup who comes in and doesn't kill you. There is value in having a guy like that, and in a very weak draft class, I could see that being enough to be a fourth or fifth round pick.
