USA Wrestling Has Too Much of a Good Thing at 86 KG

Going into the 2019 World Championships, 86 KG (about 189.5 pounds) is probably the weakest spot on the US Men’s Wrestling team. I understand that this is offensive to Pat Downey, the United States’s current representative at the weight, but it’s pretty tough to argue at this point, especially with a pretty short resume when it comes to Senior level freestyle wrestling accomplishments.

That being said, going into the Olympics in 2020, it goes from being the weakest to possibly the strongest weight class. Since there are only 6 Olympic weights where there are 10 world champions in non-Olympic years, it shrinks down the possibilities of where guys can wrestle. It is guaranteed at least two former world champions, and possibly, although extremely unlikely, up to five former World Champions. 

Pat Downey

First off, you have the current representative, Pat Downey. I did mention that he has not done much on the Senior Freestyle scene, but on the Junior scene, he did win a Silver Medal back in 2012 which was the best finish of any American that year. He struggled to find the right fit in college, so he was only a one-time All-American due to multiple transfers that limited his eligibility. Still, he came out with the right attitude this year and won the US Open before winning the best 2-out-of-3 falls against Nick Heflin at the World Team Trials. Nobody expected Downey to make it that far. Then, instead of having to compete at Final X, he won the spot simply by making weight as last year’s US Representative and defending World Champion, David Taylor, was injured in an exhibition match in May. Downey will represent the US team this year in Kazakhstan this year, but I can’t imagine he’s got that much more magic left in him. Still, the guy will grind, and nobody has ever questioned his self-confidence.

David Taylor

Next, let’s talk about the 2018 World Champion, David Taylor. The Magic Man has had one hell of a career as he won two Dan Hodge trophies as the best college wrestler in the country, something that has only been done three times in history. It was expected that he would go out on the international scene and dominate, but he could never quite get started as he continually ran into competition that was just slightly better than him. He started his career at 74 kg where he ran into two unbelievable talents in Jordan Burroughs and Kyle Dake. He was always close but could never quite overcome them. So he did the next logical thing, he gained 25 pounds of muscle and moved up to 86 kg. 2016 appeared to be his year to represent the United States at the Olympics, but there, he could not overcome future World Champion, J’Den Cox, who managed to squeak by with the sweatiest victory in US history. Again, he was denied.

But with Cox moving up to 92 kg, the path was completely clear for Taylor to take over for the United States, and he did that in 2018 by storming through the competition and winning a World Championship. Everything was lining up for him to defend his crown this year before he hurt his leg in at Beat The Streets and will take time off in order to make sure he’s 100% healthy for the Olympics next year.

J’Den Cox

I guess it only makes sense to transition to talk about J’Den Cox who has moved up to 92 kg and won a World Title last year but has stated that he will be cutting down to 86 kg for the Olympics. On top of his World Title, he has a World Bronze, Olympic Bronze, and three NCAA Titles.  So yeah, he’s pretty damn good. If he can handle the weight cut well, it’s tough to say he wouldn’t be the favorite. I might have given the edge to Taylor before the injury but putting that into consideration, Cox may be the guy to beat. There is nobody with better defense than Cox, and even though this really isn’t relevant, he’s the sweatiest person I have ever seen. I will never get over how sweaty he was against Taylor a few years ago, because there were practically puddles on the mat from a six-minute match. I expect him to win another World Title this year, and the biggest question mark for him will be the weight cut, because his skills clearly make him one of the best wrestlers in the world.

Kyle Dake

Speaking of one of the best wrestlers in the world, there was no one more dominant than Kyle Dake last year. He is another World Champion, but he did it without giving up a single point at the World Championships and tech falled three out of four opponents. Oh yeah, he’s also the only man to ever win four NCAA Titles at four different weight classes. Still, I would say he is the longest of long shots. His World Championship was at 79 kg, and he has to make the decision of whether to go up to 86 kg or move down to 74 kg. I think he will go down in weight, but waiting for him down there is possibly America’s greatest wrestler of all time, Jordan Burroughs. He’s beaten David Taylor every time they have gone up against each other, and he gave J’Den Cox a run for his money despite being vastly undersized in their matchup. I wouldn’t bet against Dake, but I think it’s also likely that he doesn’t move up in weight to have this intense of competition waiting for him.

Oh, and he hasn’t even qualified to represent the United States at 79 kg, because he still has to wrestle the last man on this list.

Alex Dieringer

That’s because he still has to go up against the freight train that is Alex Dieringer. Dieringer has wrestled Dake very close in previous matchups, and he seems to be getting better and better every year. He dominated the competition to earn a chance against Dake, but things have been delayed due to Dake recovering from an injury. If he takes the spot at 79 kg, he would be the favorite to win gold at this year’s World Championships, and he’s already stated that he’s going up to 86 kg next year. He won’t go in as the favorite, but the way he’s been wrestling, he’s as dangerous as anybody in the division.

All this talk doesn’t even include former National Champions Mark Hall and Zahid Valencia who are wrapping up their college careers, former NCAA Champion Myles Martin who will now be able to focus on freestyle full time, and the possibility of Bo Nickal coming back down who may have been the scariest person in college wrestling over the last four years. Oh, and for some Iowa flair, how about Sammy Brooks, a man with a mullet that helps give him super powers? This may be the most competitive division in US Wrestling history.

But that’s all for next year. We’re less than two months away from the 2019 World Championships where the only guy that matters is PDIII. USA! USA! USA!

The Top 5 USA Freestyle Wrestlers at 86 KG

I went to the UWW Freestyle World Cup in Iowa City, and it was awesome. In fact, it got me so amped up that I'm going to be coming at you with a bunch of wrestling content. I'm ranking the top five guys at every weight class, and today we move on to 86 KG (approximately 190 pounds). Let's get to it.

5. Pat Downey III
PD3 was my guy early in the season. That was when I thought he was actually going to wrestle for the Hawkeyes. Unfortunately, that never came to fruition, so Downey has not competed in quite a while. Still, he has been training in Iowa City, and I don't expect to see a lot of rust from him. He has the ability to take out some of the top guys at this weight, but even if things break right, I have trouble seeing him making the Final X.

4. Gabe Dean
Gabe Dean was a very good folkstyle wrestler but can't seem to find his footing at the next level. He's dabbled in both freestyle and greco and neither one really seems to suit him. He's a great all-around athlete and a tremendous competitor, but I think he will likely end up being a great college wrestler who never does anything on the international level. I know that doesn't sound great, but being a great college wrestler is pretty freaking incredible, so let's celebrate that instead of worrying about an international career.

3. Richard Perry
Perry is the opposite of Dean where he has done much better at freestyle than he ever did at the NCAA level. He was never even an All-American, but he has been in the mix for the USA in past years. Still, he was never close to taking that top spot, and I don't see a major breakthrough coming this year. He's solid depth and a gatekeeper for some of the young guys coming up, but it's tough to envision any more.

2. Bo Nickal
Nickal is one of the most exciting guys in wrestling. He is willing to go big in order for a big payoff and truly wrestles with the philosophy of, "No risk it, no biscuit." Any match that he is in is must-watch, but even though he's entertaining, I don't see him having the tools to take out the top guy on this list.

1. David Taylor
Taylor has gone on a tear since moving up to 86 KG as he has looked great against international competition. Unfortunately, J'Den Cox gave him fits when it mattered most, and he was unable to represent the country last year. But now it's his time. I really don't see anybody challenging him from the United States, and I wouldn't be shocked if he took out everybody in the world as well, although that is still a far loftier goal in a very tough weight class.

Previous Entries:

57 KG

61 KG

65 KG

70 KG

74 KG

79 KG

The 10 Can't Miss Fights This Weekend

Fight fans, rejoice! We have a great weekend of combat sports action this weekend as Bellator is putting on a feature card, the UFC is putting up a pay per view with two title fights, and there is an Iowa/Ohio State wrestling meet, what more could you want? I am going to go through the top ten contests that you don't want to miss this weekend.

10. NCAA Wrestling - Sam Stoll vs. Kyle Snyder
This isn't going to necessarily be a good match. I mean, I love Sam Stoll, but Kyle Snyder isn't just the best heavyweight in the NCAA, he's got a pretty damn strong case that he's the best wrestler, at any weight, in the world. So even if this isn't going to be competitive, take advantage of being able to see Kyle Snyder wrestle. He's on his way to possibly becoming the greatest American wrestler ever. That's not hyperbole, even if he has a little ways to go; nobody has done what Snyder has accomplished at just 22 years old. Treat yourself and check him out this weekend.

9. Bellator - Michael Chandler vs. Goiti Yamauchi
This match probably isn't going to be a whole lot more competitive than the one above, but Michael Chandler is somebody you don't want to miss. Since he has never fought in the UFC, he isn't a name brand lightweight, but he can compete with the best, and he does it in a fast-paced, extremely entertaining way. His two fights against former UFC Champion, Eddie Alvarez, are some of the best of all time. He's attempting to bounce back from a weird upset loss to Brett Primus where he took a low kick and lost feeling in his foot, and he'll do so against Goiti Yamauchi. This doesn't appear to be a great matchup for Yamauchi as he is a submission specialist, and considering Chandler's background as a wrestler, I don't know how he's going to get this match to the ground. This appears to be a showcase fight for Chandler, so sit back and enjoy the show.

8. Bellator - Aaron Pico vs. Shane "The War Rhino" Kruchten
Aaron Pico is the greatest mixed martial arts prospect in history. He is an elite level freestyle wrestler who has trained in striking since he was a small child. He's built to have no weaknesses, and yet, he got upset in his very first fight against a much more experienced pro. He bounced back in his second, and I think he continues to rise against Kruchten. The War Rhino is a solid all-around fighter, but that just means that Pico is likely better in every way. Pico should hammer him, and do it fairly quickly, but it's still fun to see a young prodigy master his craft.

7. NCAA Wrestling - Michael Kemerer vs. Micah Jordan
These two will battle it out at 157. Kemerer is currently ranked second and Jordan is sixth. I think those rankings hold, but it will be good to see Kemerer get some competition as he has streamrolled just about everybody but Josh Shields in the Midlands Finals. Kemerer has certainly improved this year, so if he puts up big points in this match, it might be a sign that he has closed the gap between himself and #1 ranked, Jason Nolf.

6. Bellator - Rory MacDonald vs. Douglas Lima
This is just a good Welterweight fight for the Bellator title. Douglas Lima is another underrated Bellator fighter, as he has only lost twice in the last eight years. Once was to Andrey Koreshkov, a loss he avenged by knocking him out in their next fight, and once to Ben Askren who just retired lat month with an undefeated record. Rory MacDonald had a different path as he spent the majority of his career in the UFC, including a win over current champion, Tyron Woodley. After a long layoff, he was dominant in his first fight in Bellator where he overwhelmed Paul Daley. This will be an interesting fight to see if Lima is truly a great welterweight, or if MacDonald is going to steamroll everything in his path at Bellator.

5. Bellator - Chael Sonnen vs. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
Okay, so I know this fight is not nearly as good as the one above it, but I'm a sucker for nostalgia, and even if it can't bring skill, at least it will have plenty of nostalgia. Neither guy has had a quality win in years. At best, they have beaten some has beens, which is good, because that means either man can get the win here. It will honestly come down to who gives slightly more of a shit at this point in their career. Chael Sonnen at least seemed mildly motivated in his win over Wanderlei Silva, and that should be enough to get the win. I could definitely see Rampage coming to the weigh in at 250 pounds since this is the first fight in Bellator's Heavyweight Tournament. It won't be pretty, but I'll definitely be watching.

4. NCAA Wrestling - Pat Downey III vs. Myles Martin
First, the Hawkeyes decided to #FreeTheLee; now it is time to #FreeTheThree. This one is still speculative as everybody seems to think Downey will wrestle for Iowa, but Tom Brands said he wasn't even supposed to talk about Downey yet. If he does, he instantly becomes one of the top contenders at 184, so I really hope that he is able to make his debut this weekend. Downey is currently at his third D-I school so his college experience hasn't been the smoothest thing ever, but when he does wrestle, it's usually pretty damn good. Martin has been fantastic this season (ranked second at 184), but he has a history of running hot and cold, and if he's cold for this match, Downey can definitely pull off the huge win, even with him not competing since the US Freestyle trials this past summer. Free The Three.

3. UFC - Daniel Cormier vs. Volkan Oezdemir
Oezdemir brings in a 15-1 recored to take on the champion, but I am just not sold on this guy as a contender. He has only had three fights in the UFC. One was a split decision against Ovince St. Preux, followed by two knockouts against Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa. OSP is now down at 185 since he never had a really impressive win at 205; Cirkunov looks great but could get knocked out by a feather, and yeah, I'll admit it, the Manuwa knockout was impressive. But Cormier seems to be a nightmare for Oezdemir. Oezdemir's one loss was to Kelly Anundson, who was a squat light heavyweight who was able to take him down and submit him. To call Anundson a poor man's Daniel Cormier may be the greatest compliment Anundson has ever received. He is a very, very...very poor man's Daniel Cormier. I think Cormier continually takes him down and just beats on Oezdemir as he pleases.

2. UFC - Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou
It's too massive heavyweights that throw bombs. Every one of Ngannou's finishes have been by stoppage, and Miocic has knocked out his last five opponents. I have no idea what's going to happen as both dudes have looked pretty damn unstoppable, but I am guessing that one of them is going to be stopped very violently.

1. NCAA Wrestling - Spencer Lee vs. Nathan Tomasello
I know what you're thinking, "Durr, this is stupid NCAA wrestling, how could you say this is a better fight than a heavyweight title fight where both guys have knockout power, durr." I know that folkstyle wrestling is not the most popular sport in the USA...yet, but just trust me on this. Tomasello just returned this month, and he put a major decision on a top-5 guy in one of his first matches back. Spencer Lee is one of the best wrestling prospects ever, and he tech falled a top-10 guy less than a month ago. Both of these guys are going to bring it, and I know I'm an extreme homer, but Spencer Lee has the tools to win this match. He has already shown that he is hell on top of guys, and he's pretty damn good on his feet as well. Tomasello has already won a National Title, and that's why he's the favorite to do it again. No matter who comes out on top, this probably won't be the last time these two see each other this season. I can't wait.

Watch Iowa vs. Oklahoma State Wrestling on Sunday

On Sunday, January 14 at 4:00 PM EST, plant your ass on the couch, turn on your TV, flip to BTN, and watch the greatest sporting event of the weekend. The two most-storied programs in college wrestling will square off as Oklahoma State comes to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes. Although it is unlikely that either team ends up on top of the podium at the end of the NCAA Tournament, they both have top-5 talent on their rosters. It's lining up to be a very close dual, so let's break it down to see how the good guys can beat the Cowboys this weekend.

125 - Spencer Lee vs. Nick Piccininni

This is the best match of the meet. Spencer Lee is the most exciting wrestler Iowa has had since Brent Metcalf, and he's the first true freshman to start for Iowa under Tom Brands (technically, there were two others but both took a year off between high school and starting their college careers). He convinced Iowa to pull his redshirt a couple weeks ago when he tech falled a top-10 wrestler at 125. Spencer Lee has ridiculous offense, and he is immediately a national title contender.

Piccininni is already disliked by the Hawkeyes as he got into a bit of a skirmish with last year's starter, Thomas Gilman, who then challenged him to a street fight. Piccininni is currently ranked third in the nation, and Spencer Lee is currently ranked 11th since he just took over the starting spot. Even though Piccininni has the advantage in ranking (sixth), that's going to change after this week. The guy repeatedly got handled by Gilman last year, and his luck isn't going to change with Spencer Lee in the lineup. It'd be crazy to pick anything more than a decision, but considering that Lee is going to have a packed Carver Hawkeye Arena cheering him on, I'll be a little crazy and predict a major decision for Lee.

Iowa 4-0

133 - Paul Glynn vs. Kaid Brock

Iowa may need those bonus points, because the next two matches are very unlikely to go in their favor. Paul Glynn is unranked and still battling for the starting job with Phil Laux, but I don't think it matters a ton against Kaid Brock. Brock is currently ranked fifth, but that's about as low as I could see him finishing at the NCAA Tournament; he's pretty dang good. This isn't going to be fun for Iowa, but I'll have a little faith and hope that Glynn can hold him to major decision.

Tied 4-4

141 - Carter Happel vs. Dean Heil

It's the same story at 141. Happel has seemed to take over the 141 spot from Vince Turk, but he's not a big time talent. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State has two-time defending National Champion, Dean Heil, on their side. Heil has already lost twice this year, but they were both in super close matches to top notch guys. He's not losing here, but Heil usually doesn't pour the points on, so he'll likely be held to a decision.

Oklahoma State 7-4

149 - Brandon Sorensen vs. Boo Lewallen

Sorensen is the clear number two at the 149 weight class, but he kind of resembles Dean Heil in that he does not get bonus points as often as you would expect from a guy of his caliber. Boo Lewallen is still battling teammate Geo Martinez for the starting spot, but he did beat him a few weeks ago when they squared off so he is the likely starter. He's currently the 13th best guy at the weight which isn't good enough to get an upset, but he should keep it close. Sorensen by decision.

Tied 7-7

157 - Michael Kemerer vs. Jonce Blaylock

The same thing that was said about Sorensen can be said about Kemerer, except the part about not scoring a ton of points, as Kemerer has been tearing through his competition this year. He's only had two matches that weren't either a pin or technical fall, and I expect him to do the same in this match as Blaylock is nothing special. I think Kemerer wins and wins big. KemDawg by fall.

Iowa 13-7

165 - Alex Marinelli vs. Chandler Rogers

This is probably the second best match in the dual. Chandler Rogers is ranked 7th while Marinelli is at 11th. But Marinelli is undefeated and seems to have improved from last year. He won the Midlands and now has two wins over Richie Lewis who is a borderline top-10 wrestler. Those rankings don't do either guy enough justice as 165 is absolutely stacked this year. This is a match that Marinelli needs to prove himself, and if he puts a high pace on, I think he can edge Rogers out with a decision.

Iowa 16-7

174 - Joey Gunther vs. Jacobe Smith

Joey Gunther is a guy who slightly outside of the top-20, and Jacobe Smith is ranked 12th. Neither guy is a world beater, but Smith is definitely the favorite. It won't be a beatdown, but it also won't be a win for Iowa. Smith by decision.

Iowa 16-10

184 - Mitch Bowman vs. Keegan Moore

This is probably the least exciting matchup of the dual. Moore just cracked the rankings at #19, so I give him the advantage by decision.

HOWEVER, there are rumblings that Pat Downey might be making his Hawkeye debut this weekend. If that's the case, change this to a major decision for the good guys, but I'll believe it when I see it, so we'll plan for Bowman for now. 

Iowa 16-13

197 - Cash Wilcke vs. Preston Weigel

Cash Wilcke has gotten in the habit of exceeding my expectations. He literally came from out of nowhere, as he was a last minute injury replacement, to make the Round of 12 at the NCAA Tournament. Then he has gone out and beaten everyone he has faced. He's had a lot of close matches, but the guy keeps finding ways to win. He's now ranked fifth in the nation but faces his toughest test in Preston Weigel who is currently ranked third in the nation. I'm going to continue to underestimate Wilcke and pick Weigel to take this one by decision. Hopefully I'm proven wrong again.

Tied 16-16

Heavyweight - Sam Stoll vs. Derek White

A healthy Sam Stoll is not somebody you want to have to go up against if you are a heavyweight not named Kyle Snyder. Stoll has been taking care of business with plenty of pins, and he finally got his first marquee victory when he beat #4 ranked wrestler, Tanner Hall in the Midlands Finals. Derek White is currently ranked 11th, but Sam Stoll going to put a beating on him. He probably won't get big points, but he won't need them as Stoll hasn't given up a takedown yet this year. Stoll gets the win for himself and for the team, as Iowa takes the dual.

Iowa 19-16

As you can see, I have Iowa coming out on top, but I have each team winning five matches. If bonus points go the wrong way, Oklahoma State could definitely steal this one. There are probably five matches where it wouldn't be shocking to see the result go the other way, but Iowa also has the Pat Downey factor, as if he wrestles, I think Iowa wins comfortably. Either way, ignore whatever crummy football game is on, and tune to BTN, because this is going to have twice the action with none of the CTE. I can't wait.

Iowa Wrestling: Who Has The Best Shot At A National Title in 2018?

Wrestling season is finally upon us which means we are just four months away as I stand alone on a mountain, screaming at the top of my lungs that you should be watching March Matness instead of March Madness. Again, nobody will hear my screams. Iowa lost a lot of talent from last year's roster, so they are more in a rebuilding mode, but it is Iowa, so it's not like they aren't going to be incredibly good. Do they have a realistic shot at winning the team title? Well, that depends, is it realistic to expect both Penn State and Ohio State (and possibly Michigan) to all miss weight at the national tournament? If so, they definitely have a shot at the team title.

But I'm going to focus on the individuals today and go through who has the best shot at making an impact on a national level. We'll start at the bottom and move our way up to the Hawkeye that will lead this team to glory.

10. Justin Stickley - 125
This is the biggest wildcard on the team. At wrestle-offs, he dominated Perez Perez, so he really couldn't have looked much better without getting pins in his matches, but that isn't a ton to go off of. This isn't a super loaded weight class. I think everything went right for Darian Cruz at the NCAA Tournament, and I don't really see him as a threat to repeat. The two real studs this year are Nick Suriano of Rutgers and Nathan Tomasello of Ohio State. Stickley doesn't appear to have the horsepower to be a threat, but I do think he will get better as the season goes along. But he's got a lot of ground to make up if he even wants to qualify for the tournament.

Of course, that all changes if Spencer Lee burns his redshirt and wrestles this season. Spencer Lee is a SPECIAL wrestler. He lost one match during his high school career, and that was with a torn ACL against Austin DeSanto, who has been tearing things up at 133 this year. If he does wrestle, he's top-4 and without a doubt, a threat to take him the National Title. He dominated the UNI Open this past weekend and just off that, I'd probably put him at #2 or #3 on this list, and that may be too low.

9. Paul Glynn or Philip Laux - 133
The bad thing about this team is that it's going to be tough for Iowa to have an individual champion this year. But the good thing about this team is that it has no notable weak spot. I fully expect Iowa to qualify guys at all ten weights, and it's pretty reasonable to think that all of them could even be seeded. Philip Laux has been a solid backup for Iowa the past couple seasons, but he never really shined. Paul Glynn beat Laux in the wrestle-offs, but then lost to a guy that Laux beat at the Luther Open. Since then, Laux has seemed to take over the weight class. Both of these guys should be tough, but neither will provide much of a ceiling for this weight. I can see a few wins at the tournament, but I don't see All-American status for the Hawkeyes this year.

8. Vince Turk or Carter Happel - 141
If you would have asked me where Turk should be after the Iowa City Duals, I would have had him in the top five. Turk was injured in his first match last year and was out for the year, but he looked great early on. After that, he has stopped looking great as slow starts have doomed him in recent matches. The issue with this weight class is that it is very deep, but there aren't unbeatable monsters at this weight. Dean Heil always finds a way to win at the top, but everyone else is in that same grinding, close decision style. If Turk can grind with the best of them, he could pull some upsets and find himself wrestling in the quarterfinals on Friday morning. The floor is very low as it wouldn't be shocking if he went 0-2 and was eliminated from the tournament, but I think he has the potential to at least win a couple matches this year.

7. Cash Wilcke - 197
This may seem low, considering Cash Wilcke is one of the few returning Hawkeyes that competed at last year's NCAA Tournament. Not only that, he made it to the Round of 12, just one win shy of All-American status. But my expectations aren't that high for Wilcke, because EVERYTHING went right for him last year. He won so many close matches in that tournament, and had there not been an injury right before the tournament, he wasn't even going to qualify to make it. He made the most of his opportunity, so hopefully it's a sign of things to come, but he's still going to be doing his best to grind it out as an undersized 197 which is not an easy thing to do. I think he qualifies on his own merit to the NCAA Tournament, but I think the blood round is likely where his ceiling lies at this weight, and I think he'll have a lot of trouble repeating that performance.

6. Joey Gunther or Kaleb Young - 174
I'll admit that I thought Kaleb Young would take this weight convincingly from Joey Gunther, but Gunther won the wrestle-off in overtime, so he's getting the first shot at the starting gig. Both guys are wrestling up a weight class from last year where Gunther won a couple matches at the NCAA Tournament and Young had a very impressive redshirt year. I see these guys as having the potential to be ranked in the 10-12 range by the end of the season. Although on seed alone, that falls short, you never know how things may go at the NCAA Tournament, so it wouldn't be crazy to see them being a threat to be a low-level All-American this year.

5. Alex Marinelli - 165
Super recruit, Alex Marinelli, is finally ready to shine for the Hawkeyes after an impressive redshirt year last season. Still, even though his season was impressive, he did falter when taking on top notch competition. He's going to be very good this year, but 165 is stacked at the top. If everything breaks right, I could see him in the top five, but I more see him as a likely All-American, and my prediction is probably sixth for this season. The thing with Marinelli is the ceiling isn't great this season, but the floor is pretty high as he's a takedown machine who is going to be tough to upset at the tournament.

4. Sam Stoll - Heavyweight
Although this is Stoll's third year as the starting heavyweight for Iowa, we still really don't know what his potential is when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. I mean, is he going to beat Kyle Snyder, a man who is on his way to becoming the greatest American wrestler ever? No, he's not going to do that. But he could give just about anybody else a run for their money. Unfortunately, he was hurt going into the tournament during his freshman year, and an injury ended his sophomore year before he had a chance to compete at the tournament last year. I would say that he is at least an All-American this year. I think Coon will likely lock up that number two spot, but I could see Stoll anywhere from 3-6 this season. He's a big dude who can give anybody troubles.

3. Brandon Sorensen - 149
I only see one possible loss from Sorensen against anybody in the 149 pound division, but that one loss is nearly guaranteed against Zain Retherford who will likely be battling his teammate for the Hodge Trophy as college wrestling's best wrestler. I think Sorensen will be wrestling in the finals on Saturday night, but I do not see a way for him to get past The Zain Train.

2. Michael Kemerer - 157
Read above, but replace Zain Retherford's name with Jason Nolf's, and you pretty much have the same story. I give Kemerer a slightly better chance of upsetting Nolf, but the odds still aren't great. He got handled both times they wrestled last year, and even if Kemerer has improved, it's not like you can expect Nolf to stagnate. I see Kemerer making the Finals, but there is no logical way to pick him to upset Nolf at this point.

1. Pat Downey - 184
For my top spot, I am selecting a man who is not even on the Iowa Wrestling team at the moment. Downey is currently finishing his degree up at Iowa State University with the plan to be a graduate transfer for the Hawkeyes once the second semester begins. He's not technically a part of the team yet, so this is definitely a risky pick for my best chance of winning a National Title in 2018, but this is not the strongest Hawkeye team ever, so it's worth taking the risk. Pat Downey, despite being a senior, is one of the greatest mysteries in college wrestling. He started his career at Nebraska, never wrestled, and transferred to Iowa Central Community College to wrestle for a year. After that, he transferred to Iowa State where he wrestled at 197 and took fifth place, and very easily could have taken third had he not lost in sudden victory to former Hawkeye, Nathan Burak. Last year, he went 7-0 in limited action, mostly at his more natural weight class of 184, but got in trouble, and was unable to compete in the NCAA Tournament. Over the offseason, he beat Gabe Dean in freestyle but lost to the defending national champion at 184, Bo Nickal. Both Nickal and Downey are big move guys, and I really believe anything could happen when they square off. The weight class lost a ton of talent this past year, and Downey should immediately be considered a top-4 wrestler, even with a limited track record of success. At this point, there is no way to consider Downey the favorite, as Nickal has gone out and won an NCAA Tournament, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Downey is standing atop the podium on Saturday night, that is, of course, if he actually joins the Iowa Wrestling team.