I went to the UWW Freestyle World Cup in Iowa City, and it was awesome. The United States won the title and showed that they are going to be one of the best nations in the world at wrestling for the foreseeable future. Now unfortunately, due to a bunch of bullshit politics, Iran and Russia were not able to attend the event. Iran is solid but probably not any better than the Azerbaijan team that the United States beat in the finals. Russia is a different beast, and right now, them and the USA stand above the rest of the world in freestyle wrestling. But after watching the best that the United States has to offer, I wanted to break down all of the weight classes to see who would be representing the United States later this year at the World Championships. Let's start at 57 KG (approximately 126 pounds) where the United States won a Silver Medal at last year's World Championships.
5. Daton Fix
Fix is the guy I know the least about, mostly since he has only had unattached matches for Oklahoma State as he took a redshirt this season. Still, the guy won the Junior World Title last year, so the bonafides are definitely there. Stepping up from the Junior to the Senior level is still incredibly difficult, and although I think he can have a good showing, I don't think he's quite ready to take on some of the older competition.
4. Tony Ramos
This is where some of my stupidity shines through as I'm going to play psychologist. But doesn't Tony Ramos seem happy? I think that's a great thing, but that dude always seemed pissed off back in the day, and that was part of his edge. Now that he's a happy adult, how driven is he? We really haven't seen anything from him since Gilman beat him at the US Open last year. This is another guy who could definitely rise up and take the top spot, as working with Coleman Scott should add some new tricks to his repertoire, but I could just as easily see him getting upset early and really never being a top guy for the USA ever again.
3. Nathan Tomasello
Tomasello had a disappointing senior season, but really, he did exactly what you would have expected outside of running into a buzzsaw from Iowa. Tomasello was big enough to wrestle at 133 the previous season, and I think the weight cut may have worn on him. Just having to peak a few times a year will likely help him at the lower weight, and I do think he is going to be a tough out for anyone in the tournament. But I still have him falling just short of making the finals.
2. Thomas Gilman
How Gilman is only number two may shock some people. Not only was Gilman the representative for the United States last year, he won the damn Silver Medal at the World Championships. Do I think the USA should definitely be taking gold this year? Not at all, but I do think that just about everything worked out for Gilman last year. He managed to pull off every close match, and I just don't think that is a repeatable skill. Now, that being said, as a medal winner last year, he's already guaranteed a spot in the finals, so he only has to win two close matches instead of five. But, if I'm being totally honest, I would have put him fourth on this list if he wasn't guaranteed a finals spot. I doubted him last year, and he made me look stupid. I certainly won't be disappointed if he does that again.
1. Spencer Lee
I know Lee is coming off of his true freshman season, and he has never competed at the senior level, and it's insane to pick someone with no track record of success at that level. BUT, did you see Lee at the NCAA Championships? I know folkstyle and freestyle are different beasts, but Lee turned EVERYBODY. If he gets a takedown, he could end the match in an instant at the freestyle level. So the question becomes how good is Lee on his feet. He looked pretty damn unstoppable at the NCAA Tournament once he got that knee brace off. It's too early to say he's going to be a lightweight version of Kyle Snyder, but after what we saw from him, is it really a crazy prediction? I was about 50/50 on him winning an NCAA Championship, and the only way I can ever see giving him odds that low is if he's facing off against 57 KG's number one ranked wrestler, Japan's Yuki Takahashi, at the World Championships. I wouldn't be surprised if that match was for a gold medal, and I certainly wouldn't bet against him.
It's now been a couple months since Iowa brought Mark Perry back to the school where he wrestled to head up the Hawkeye Wrestling Club. This club is for guys training for international freestyle competition, but its impact already appears as if it will reach far beyond that. The Hawkeye Wrestling Club bringing on Perry may seem like just one extra guy to help out, but it is actually just the first domino in what will help Iowa lead in college wrestling's arms race.
The University of Iowa wrestling team and the Hawkeye Wrestling Club are two distinct entities. They don't even train the same style of wrestling as the Iowa Hawkeyes wrestle folkstyle and the HWC wrestles freestyle. That being said, there is only one wrestling room where these two train, and folkstyle and freestyle isn't that different where the two sides can't help each other out.
Although Perry isn't a coach for the Iowa Hawkeyes, he's still going to be in the room, and he's still going to be helping guys out, even if he isn't on the side of the mat during their matches. Perry was also known as a strong recruiter when coaching college, and even though he can't directly recruit high school wrestlers, he can still be an influential force when they visit campus. He's already helped out in convincing Justin Mejia to commit to Iowa after things fell through with his commitment to Illinois.
The University of Iowa wrestling team is taking full advantage of having another team training for freestyle. The HWC now boasts an impressive collection of talent. They have former Hawkeyes, Nathan Burak, Bobby Telford, Matt McDonough, Dan Dennis, Sammy Brooks, Alex Meyer, and World Team Member, Thomas Gilman. They have also added Nick and Chris Dardanes as well as former NCAA Champion, Jesse Delgado. That last one is the most interesting as it is the earliest benefit of bringing on Perry as Delgado was coached by Perry when he was an assistant at the University of Illinois. With that collection of talent, the lower weights are stacked, the upper weights are in good shape, and the middle weights are solid right now. And speaking of those middle weights, there is a good chance that Isaiah Martinez, a guy who has the chance to be a three-time NCAA Champion this year, comes to the HWC after graduating because of his relationship with Perry. It has the potential to be a ridiculous amount of talent in that wrestling room.
But Iowa isn't alone in this. The elephant in every wrestling room is Penn State, and they're building a formidable group of guys that were formerly coached in college by Cael Sanderson. Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska all have brought on a lot of talent with their freestyle wrestling clubs that have benefited the university teams.
In wrestling, there is a limited amount of scholarship money you can hand out to strengthen your team. By having a wrestling club, you are bringing more talent into the room to help your team grow. Iron sharpens iron, and with the Hawkeye Wrestling Club, the University of Iowa has a whole lot more iron at its disposal to help sharpen their wrestling team.
I needed a little bit of time to recover before I could do any sort of analysis of the NCAA Wrestling Tournament. It was yet again the best sporting event of the year, even though I can admit that the finals were less than stellar this year. But that's the beauty of the tournament; it's often the leadup that makes things magical. There were incredible matches throughout the tournament, which makes it easier to take Penn State's dominance on Saturday night. But Penn State's dominance is far too depressing of a topic for me right now, so instead, let's look at the mixed bag of Iowa's performance at the NCAA Tournament.
9. Topher Carton - 141 - 2-2: DNP
Here's the thing with Carton's performance. It really wasn't disappointing. It just kind of happened. He won his first match in the pigtail pretty easily. Then he went against George DiCamillo, who made the National Finals this year and got majored, but that's really not too shocking either. He bounced back and majored Cole Martin in the consolation side of the bracket. Then he took on Luke Pletcher which could be seen as a toss up match, but Pletcher seemed to have his number this year and beat Carton 9-6. It was a totally fine performance, but Carton wrestled well enough this year where you could envision him pulling off an extra win or two, but it just didn't happen for him.
8. Thomas Gilman - 125 - 5-1: 3rd Place
Is this too low for Gilman? Probably, but Gilman was the best guy at 125; it wasn't particularly close, and he still didn't come away with a National Title. He came out exactly like he should on his way to the semifinals with two major decisions, followed by a pin. The number two and three seeds had already been sent packing, so it seemed as if Gilman would cruise to a title. But weird things happen at the NCAA Tournament. Gilman wrestled super tight the entire match against Darian Cruz, but Gilman controlled the offense in the match, but eventually his hesitation cost him. He shot in, got Cruz's leg and...held it there. All it took was one beat and Cruz spun hard, kicking his leg free and getting behind Gilman for the two. Thank god for the guy at the top of this list, because I was legitimately distraught on Friday night when Gilman lost. Bravo to Cruz for getting the win, but there is no doubt that Gilman was the best 125 pound wrestler this year. He ended up taking care of business on the backside and getting third place, but anything less than first place was going to be a huge disappointment. I still can't believe he didn't win the National Title.
7. Joey Gunther - 165 - 2-2: DNP
I kind of came into the tournament thinking that if things broke right, Gunther would get one win. Instead, he got two wins, so congratulations to him. He got handled in his opening match, but then came back to win back-to-back matches on the backside of the bracket. His luck ran out when he went up against Bryce Seitert of Northern Iowa, but it was a really solid performance for Gunther. He got better and better during his Freshman season, and usually that would be something to build on. Unfortunately, super recruit, Alex Marinelli, will likely take over the starting spot at 165 next year, and Kaleb Young is going to be tough to beat out at 174. I don't know where things go from here, but Gunther grinded out a lot of matches this year, so let's hope he continues to grind for the Hawkeyes.
6. Alex Meyer - 174 - 2-2: Round of 12
Sometimes results aren't necessarily as important as how someone wrestles in the tournament. Alex Meyer may have only gone 2-2, but he wrestled his ass off. In the first round, he took care of his unseeded opponent and followed it up by upsetting the number six seed in Ryan Preisch from Lehigh. Then, for six and a half minutes, he wrestled his best match of the season. He went up against Bo Jordan of Ohio State, who made the NCAA Finals (and probably should have won if replay had given him what looked to be a takedown). Meyer was up 3-2 with less than a minute left in the match, but with about thirty seconds left, he couldn't stop Jordan from getting to his legs and Jordan got the takedown and ride out to win the match 4-3. After that, he had a match with Kyle Crutchmer and unfortunately got hit with a six point move. He worked his butt off to come back with nonstop aggression but Crutchmer was able to stall his way to victory, 13-10. Last year, Meyer was an All-American, and this year he wasn't. Usually, that would put him lower on this list, but I was able to watch all four of his matches, and even though the results weren't there, the wrestling was, and there's no shame in how Meyer ended his Hawkeye career.
5. Sammy Brooks - 184 - 4-2: Fourth Place
Brooks came in ranked as the three seed, and he ended up finishing fourth. In his wins, he looked as good and possibly better than expected as he pulled off multiple pins and probably the most exciting single moment for Iowa when he managed to reverse a throw and pin Emery Parker of Illinois in the Quarterfinals. I nearly yelled in excitement while watching at work, so that probably would have blown my cover that I only had it on as background noise. Then he went up against Bo Nickal, and it appears Nickal just has Brooks's number as he pinned him yet again in the first period. He bounced back with a convincing win over returning National Champion, Myles Martin, but then got down early and eventually took a pin against TJ Dudley, another guy who has given Brooks a lot of trouble. The Mullet ends his career with back-to-back All-American honors which isn't too shabby.
4. Brandon Sorensen - 149 - 5-1: Third Place
Sorensen wrestled as well as anyone could expect. He came in seeded fifth, but I think every wrestling fan saw that as an absolute worst case scenario. He lost to the top two seeds at the end of the second overtime by riding time advantage. What hurt him on seeding was getting upset by Pat Lugo of Rutgers and losing to Micah Jordan in the Big Ten Tournament. He would end up avenging that loss twice over during the NCAA Tournament. First, he beat Micah Jordan in the quarterfinals, 3-0, but that fifth seed meant that he'd be facing the overwhelming favorite, Zain Retherford, in the semifinals. The good news is Sorensen was the only person to not get tech fall'd against Retherford; the bad news is that Sorensen got pinned in one of the most painful moves I have seen on a wrestling mat. Even after the disappointing loss, he bounced back on Saturday to major decision Solomon Chishoko of Virginia Tech before beating Micah Jordan again for third place, and he didn't give up a single point in either of those matches. Sorensen will go into next season as the second ranked wrestler, but unfortunately, Zain Retherford will be back, which just about guarantees that he's fighting for second place.
3. Michael Kemerer - 157 - 6-1: Third Place
I'll admit that these next two picks may be higher than some might place them. Sorensen got third place as a fifth seed, while Kemerer got third place as a two seed. But it's one of those situations where watching Kemerer, there's really only one guy who wrestled better, and that guy ended up with a title. In his first match, he got a major decision, and he followed that up with a tech fall. His quarterfinal match was against Dylan Palacio which was a nonstop scramble until Kemerer got caught in a weird position and got pinned. The pin seemed questionable, but had Palacio gotten four back points, it was going to be tough for Kemerer to come back. That was definitely disappointing, but it didn't slow down Kemerer. He ended up going on the backside and taking three straight major decisions, including one over Tyler Berger, who gave him one of the best matches of the year during the Midlands this season. He ended going up against Joe Smith of Oklahoma State, who stalled his way to overtime, but Kemerer kept shooting and shooting and shooting until he took Smith to his back in overtime to win the match 7-1 and take third place. Nolf is a monster at 157, but Kemerer looked better in his second match against him than he did in his first, so it wouldn't be completely shocking if he is able to close the gap even more next year. Either way, Kemerer is going to be a ton of fun to watch for the next three seasons.
2. Cash Wilcke - 197 - 3-2: Round of 12
On results alone, there is no way to put Wilcke this high. I mean, the guy didn't even place. But holy shit did this guy beat expectations. When they announced the seedings and at-large bids, you know where Wilcke was seeded? He wasn't seeded. In fact, he didn't even qualify for the dang tournament. He was literally the last guy added as an injury replacement. If he went in and won one match, it would be something for Iowa fans to celebrate. Instead, he came up with a big upset over 13th seeded, Tom Sleigh. Then he did lose to Jared Haught but came back in the consolations to get a win over Josh Marchok. He then had arguably the most insane match of the tournament against Frank Mattiace of Penn. Wilcke had a one point lead going into the final minute but gave up a reversal with about 15 seconds left. Finally, he gets a restart, but there are only two seconds left, and Mattiace has the one point lead, so it's basically over. But Mattiace also had two cautions, so he couldn't jump the gun or he'd give up a point. Wilcke explodes out and gets out before time expires, maybe partially helped by a timekeeper that was slow to start the clock. That sent my jaw to the floor and those guys both to overtime. Then in overtime, Mattiace has another false start, his third caution, and Wilcke gets the penalty point to win the match. It was insanity. He had gone from not qualifying for the tournament to one match away from All-American status. He ended up losing 7-6 in a match that wasn't quite that close, but it was such an impressive performance from Wilcke and has me way more excited about what he can do next year when he drops to his more natural weight of 184.
1. Cory Clark - 133 - 5-0: National Champion
This is a no brainer for top spot as Cory Clark, who had lost the last two years in the NCAA Finals, finally got over the hump and won a National Championship. And man, what a run he had this year. He had no easy outs in the tournament and earned it every step of the way. In his first match, he got Connor Schram, who was unseeded after being a returning All-American. Then, he took out Pat D'Arcy who upset the #13 seed in his first match. After that, he faced a super tough freshman in Stevan Micic from Michigan. After giving up an early takedown, Clark started to take over the match and won 6-4. That set up a match with Nathan Tomasello, a former National Champion, and the #1 ranked, only undefeated wrestler at 133. Clark may have lost in the B1G finals, but he controlled the action, with the benefit of two cheap takedowns, and took care of Tomasello 7-4. That set up a finals against his former teammate, Seth Gross, who had absolutely steamrolled his competition leading up to the finals. Gross's closest match was his opening match, where he shutout his opponent 5-0. Then he won by tech fall, followed by two major decisions. Again, Cory Clark gave up an early takedown but he kept battling and in the third period, he was able to get the decisive takedown to take a 4-3 lead. He rode out Gross in impressive fashion and was able to stand atop the podium. As disappointed as I was about Gilman not getting a title, I was just as happy to see Cory Clark finally end up on top. He is going to be dearly missed next season and beyond, but he ended his career the right way and earned his asterisk on the Iowa wrestling room wall.
It's the most wonderful sports weekend of the year. Starting on Thursday, all eyes will be towards the sports world. Fans will fill out their brackets and hope that this is the year that they win their office pool. And after three days of amazing action, on Sunday you can rest and watch basketball, because the NCAA Wrestling Tournament is here. March Matness is the only thing that matters this weekend, so do yourself a favor and tune into as much as you can.
With that, I wanted to look at all of the number one seeds and rank who has the best and worst chances of being atop the podium on Saturday night.
10. Zahid Valencia - Arizona State - 174
Valencia has had an incredible freshman season, as he has worked his way through everyone that stood in his path to an undefeated record. He faced some solid competition but almost completely avoided the Big Ten, and I believe that is where he will struggle in this tournament. As a number one seed, it's close to impossible to see them lose one of their first two matchups, and Valencia should cruise through those. I believe he'll have to get through Miles Amine in the Quarterfinals, who he did beat by a single point earlier in the season, and Amine has seemed to improve by leaps and bounds since then. After that, he either gets Zach Epperly of Virginia Tech or super Freshman, Mark Hall. I think it'll be the latter, and I significantly favor Hall in that match. His offense has just been incredible, and you could make a pretty strong argument that he outwrestled Bo Jordan in the B1G finals through seven minutes but wasn't able to get the win. After that, I think Bo Jordan comes out of the bottom half of the bracket, but Realbuto is funky enough to give anyone troubles. Still, I just don't see how Valencia gets through all of these landmines to win a championship. But the good news is he's only a freshman, so he'll still have plenty of time to end up as a champion.
9. Dean Heil - Oklahoma State - 141
I'm a Dean Heil hater. I wrote this article last year, and he ranked tenth, but he managed to still win the National Title, so this year he moves all the way up to the nine spot. The guy wrestles way too many close matches to consistently come out on top, but he does manage to always come out on top. I'm still predicting that to end at the NCAA Tournament. He's a tough guy to score on, but I refuse to believe he's going back-to-back this year. Although I have trouble not seeing him in the semifinals, I see him having a tough time getting past Matthew Kolodzik or Anthony Ashnault, especially since the latter is wrestling better than he ever has before. I like Ashnault a lot in this tournament and would bet on him to beat Heil this year, but even if he makes it to the finals, a matchup with Kevin Jack or Joey McKenna awaits him. Honestly, there isn't much separating the top five guys at this weight. Last year, Heil managed to work his way through to a title; I don't see him repeating the feat.
8. Nathan Tomasello - Ohio State - 133
Tomasello's a stud, but 133 is absolutely stacked this year. It's either this weight or the next one I'm going to talk about for the toughest weight class in college wrestling. Tomasello will cruise through his first two opponents, but things start to get very interesting in the quarterfinals. Zane Richards is a tough guy who was looked at as a top-five guy entering this year. I do think Tomasello can take care of business there, but things get very interesting in the semifinals where he is likely to take on Cory Clark or Stevan Micic. He barely beat Micic 6-5 at the Big Ten Tournament, and that is a guy who has gotten a ton better as the year has gone on. I'm still hoping it's Clark he's going to see, and Tomasello won by a literal last second escape (and was helped by getting a point for an illegal move as well). I think it was a learning experience for Clark, and I think Tomasello is in serious trouble if Clark gets past Micic. Then you have the bottom half of the bracket that is led by Seth Gross and Kaid Brock, two guys who can absolutely put up points, and even they have to get through Eric Montoya and Dom Forys just to get there. Tomasello could beat any of these guys, but it's going to be tough to beat all of them, and I just don't see him doing it this year.
7. Gabe Dean - Cornell - 184
On talent and resume, Gabe Dean should definitely be higher on this list. I know that, you know that, we all know that. But 184 has a legitimate claim at being the toughest weight class in college wrestling this year. There are just so many landmines at this weight class. I mean, yes, Dean is cruising through his first two opponents, but then he likely gets Nate Jackson of Indiana or Jack Dechow of Old Dominion, both of who are tough guys. Then he will likely get Zach Zavatsky (I'm not a believer in Nolan Boyd) who is another legitimate challenger. Those guys are all tough, but Dean has faced tough guy after tough guy and almost always comes out on top. I have trouble seeing him not make the Finals, but then he goes up against either Sammy Brooks or Bo Nickal. Bo Nickal may have the most fun offensive moveset in college wrestling, as the guy is always looking for a huge move. He has the ability to hit it on anybody, and that include Gabe Dean. But don't sleep on Brooks who wrestled Dean tight two years ago and is wrestling better than he has ever wrestled right now. Dean is the best guy at this weight, but with the competition that he is going to have to go through, it is far from a guarantee that he ends up on top of the podium.
6. Thomas Gilman - Iowa - 125
Is there some Hawkeye bias here? Maybe, but who exactly is he going to lose to before the finals? He's basically dominated every opponent he's had outside of Nick Suriano, who is both injured and on the other side of the bracket. He's beaten just about every guy on his side of the bracket, and with the way he's wrestling this year, it seems highly unlikely that anyone is going to rise up and take him out. So that leads him to a relatively easy path with a likely matchup against Suriano or Joey Dance from Virginia Tech. Suriano is hurt, and I really don't think he's going to be able to make an impact on a bum ankle. He's 1-1 against Dance, but they wrestled both of those matches two seasons ago. Both have gotten better since then, but Dance is only very good where Gilman is an absolute dominator on the mat these days. I think Gilman finds his way through the bracket to become the Hawkeyes first National Champion since Tony Ramos.
5. Isaiah Martinez - Illinois - 165
Isaiah Martinez is going for his third national title in three years, this time up a weight at 165. Although there are some tough guys at 165, Martinez is still the clear favorite. He's going to cruise to the semifinals where a likely matchup with Isaac Jordan awaits. Jordan is always rock solid in his wrestling, but I just don't think he has the offense to truly threaten Martinez. The most interesting matchup lies in the finals where he will take on Logan Massa. Outside of getting hit with a six-point move in the Big Ten Tournament, Massa has wrestled Martinez tough, but I have a tough time seeing anyone stop Martinez from a threepeat.
4. J'Den Cox - Missouri - 197
Originally, I had Martinez ahead of J'Den Cox, but then I got to looking at things, and then I thought about some things and decided it's really hard to put the 2016 Olympic Bronze Medalist lower than this. He's wrestled against the #2, #3, and #4 ranked wrestlers and beaten them all. Yes, they have been relatively close as he's won each match by two points, but he's winning, and he's super good. Also, this weight isn't that strong past Cox. Kollin Moore and Brett Pfarr are both good enough to push Cox in the Finals, but third best in the world almost definitely means that he's the best in the NCAA.
3. Zain Retherford - Penn State - 149
I could probably just say, "Ain't nobody stopping the Zain Train," and call it a day, but what fun would that be? There are two interesting matchups for him. One with Brandon Sorensen, who he beat 9-8 after having an advantage in riding time in the second tiebreaker, and Anthony Collica, who he only beat 2-1 in their match late in the season. Those were his only two decision wins, and honestly, I still wouldn't be surprised if those remained his only two decision wins this year, as I could easily see him storming through everyone in the tournament. As a Hawkeye fan, I'd love to pick Sorensen for the upset, but ain't nobody stopping the Zain Train.
2. Kyle Snyder - Ohio State - Heavyweight
How can I put the United States's youngest Olympic gold medal winning wrestler below the top spot? I'm struggling with that question myself. I actually originally had him at the three spot, but decided to move him ahead of Zain. The other issue is that he won that gold medal at 213 pounds, and the heavyweight limit is 275. Even if he's walking around at 225-230, he's going to be giving up around 50 pounds to some of the big boys at this weight. He's still steamrolled everybody that he's gone up against, as he's a takedown machine. He's freakishly strong as no heavyweight can push him around on the mat, and he's such an incredible athlete that he can do whatever he wants despite the size disadvantage. He's going to win his second straight national title, but I just couldn't put him ahead of this last guy.
1. Jason Nolf - Penn State - 157
Nolf is winning the National Title this year. The only thing that stopped him were some incredibly close matches with Isaiah Martinez last year, and this year, he doesn't have to worry about that. In fact, he doesn't have much to worry about at all. There is only one guy he hasn't scored bonus points against this year, and that is the second-ranked Michael Kemerer, but that does not mean that these were close matches. Kemerer lost by more but looked better in their second match, but Nolf is just too good. Even as a Penn State hater, there is no way to not like watching Nolf. There is no question that he will come home with a National Title; the only question is whether he gets bonus points in all of his matches or not. He's that good, and that is why, out of all the number one seeds, there is nobody I am more confident in taking home the title than Jason Nolf.
The wrestling season is sadly winding down. All that is left is the National Duals, Conference Tournaments, and the NCAA Tournament. Even as an eternal optimist for the Iowa Hawkeyes, their chances at winning the team national title are incredibly slim. It is looking like they can qualify eight weights, with 197 and Heavyweight unlikely to make the cut. That alone puts them in a pretty deep hole, and two of their other qualifiers are unranked, so those guys putting up major points seems unlikely. Still, crazy things can happen in wrestling, so let's look at all ten starter's chances at winning a National Title this season. 10. Heavyweight - Steven Holloway
When Sam Stoll reinjured his knee, it basically ended Iowa's hopes for a team National Title. If healthy, he's a likely All-American and those missed points are tough to make up. Holloway is stepping in and doing his best. Unfortunately, he's small for the weight class and not skilled enough to make up for the size discrepancy. He's kept matches close outside of when wrestling the top guys at the weight, but he consistently falls short of pulling off the victories. It's not gonna happen.
9. 197 - Cash Wilcke
Unfortunately, the guy with the best name on the team probably doesn't have the best chances at making a dent at the NCAA Tournament. Wilcke is another guy that would probably be better suited at a lower weight class. He is doing a serviceable job as he has only been on the losing end of one major decision this year. He's kept matches close but just hasn't had quite the firepower to get things done. It wouldn't be totally shocking if he put together a strong Big Ten performance to qualify for the NCAAs, but even if he makes it, he will not be favored in any of his matches once he gets there. The good news is there will be a lot of turnover at 184 after this year (including his teammate Sammy Brooks), and it will be interesting to see what kind of damage he can do at his more natural weight.
8. 165 - Joey Gunther
Gunther has done enough this year. First, he did enough at 165 where Brands didn't feel like it was worth burning Alex Marinelli's redshirt for this season. He's continued to do enough by beating guys he should beat at 165 in close matches and even pulled off a good win against Nick Wanzek of Minnesota. With that, he's probably done enough to qualify for the NCAA Tournament although it's not yet a guarantee. Gunther will reliably give you seven strong minutes out there. I think he qualifies, but even though he's gotten stronger as the year has gone on, I'd be pretty surprised if he got more than a win or two at Nationals.
7. 141 - Topher Carton
Carton may be Iowa's most improved wrestler as this season has gone on. Kevin Jack and Dean Heil are the only two guys who have definitively beaten him, and even those were just regular decisions. Otherwise, he has given guys fits, and even though he's still working on coming out on top, he's the type of guy who could pull off a big upset at the NCAAs. Usually a guy from Iowa can't sneak up at a national tournament, but Carton could prove to be the exception to that rule. 141 is a deep weight class, so there are going to be nothing but tough matches, but Carton has shown enough that he might be able to pull off some upsets and make some noise. It's still not likely, but it wouldn't totally shock me to see him in the Round of 12.
6. 174 - Alex Meyer
Now we get into the range of returning All-Americans. Meyer finished seventh last season and looked to have the opportunity to build on that as his weight class actually lost some of its heaviest hitters. Instead, he's had some rather disappointing performances in toss-up matches this year. Of course, he also beat Penn State Super Freshman, Mark Hall, a guy who has only lost one other time this year and has bonus points in 70% of his matches. Basically, it is impossible to know what you are going to get out of Alex Meyer. Nobody will blow him out, but he has the ability to beat and lose to anybody. If he's aggressive and pushing the pace, he could make a serious run, but if he is passive and on the defensive, it's probably not going to be a long tournament for him. Since I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to Iowa wrestling, I say he becomes a two-time All-American, although I have trouble seeing him advance more than a spot or two from last year's finish.
5. 184 - Sammy Brooks
Another seventh place finisher last year, I would love to put Brooks higher on this list, but there is a bit too much volatility in Brooks's outcomes for me to reasonably put him higher on this list. He only has two losses this season, one to Nate Jackson, which he avenged later in that same Midlands tournament, and the other to Bo Nickal, where he showed some hesitation on a good shot and got caught in a weird spot and pinned. I'm not really concerned about either of those outcomes. Bo Nickal is a monster offensively, but guys have shown that he can be scored on with a good pace. There is also two-time defending National Champion, Gabe Dean, who has seemed to take his wrestling to another level this season. Brooks wrestled him close a couple years ago, and that's why I believe he could beat anybody. I'd be shocked if Brooks didn't finish as a two-time All-American, and I think he could cause some damage if he gets the right matchups and stays aggressive in his matches. I think the likely outcome is the 3-5 range, but if don't be surprised if he's wrestling on Saturday night. Never doubt the mullet.
4. 157 - Michael Kemerer
Kemerer has exceeded all expectations in his first year wrestling for the Hawkeyes. I mean, I was incredibly excited about him last year, but he's even outdone my wildest expectations for him this year. He moved up a weight class this year and still has stormed through absolutely everybody except for #1 ranked, Jason Nolf. He's ranked second currently, and he will be expected to make the finals of the NCAAs. The reason he's only fourth on this list is partially due to the strong performances of the top three guys and partially because Nolf seemed to overwhelm him in their first match. I think Kemerer has the ability to close the gap on Nolf in the next month, but I have a real hard time seeing him overtake the top guy at that weight. Still, it's gonna be a ton of fun watching him close out his Freshman season.
3. 149 - Brandon Sorensen
Sorensen is in a similar boat as Kemerer, as he can pretty clearly beat anyone but the top guy at this weight, although Sorensen did lose by riding time in a match against Anthony Collica at Oklahoma State. Still, if Sorensen gets the second or third seed, I think he'll be favored to make it to the Finals. Last year, top seeded Zain Retherford dominated Sorensen in their two matches,as in two matches, Sorensen managed only a single escape point. But this year, he came out and wrestled his ass off against Retherford in one of the most exciting matches of the year. He did end up losing OT, but he showed that he can compete with Zain Train, who, outside of that match, has been the most dominant wrestler at any weight class in college wrestling. Do I think Sorensen will beat him? No, I don't think he will, but I also didn't think he'd be as close as he was earlier this season. I'm just really hoping that he doesn't have to worry about that match until the Finals. 2. 133 - Cory Clark
Yes, I know Clark got upset this past weekend against Nebraska, but I still believe in him. Cory Clark has finished second the last two years and has the chance to become a four-time All-American this year. Still, anything less than a Championship is going to be a disappointment for Clark's Hawkeye career. He has been so close for so long that Iowa fans are just waiting for him to get over the hump. Of course, when it finally looked like he would be the number one guy, favored to take it all, he suffered a shoulder injury, and although he's looked strong in his matches, he hasn't quite looked as dominant as he has in the past. 133 is a tough weight class, but there are no unbeatable monsters at this weight. There are probably five guys who could go on a run and win the thing with Tomasello (Ohio State), Brock (Oklahoma State), Richards (Illinois, and Gross (South Dakota State after transferring from Iowa). Clark's only other loss this season was to Brock, and it was a close match where Clark probably wasn't 100%. The season slows down over this next month, so it should give Clark an opportunity to rest and hopefully get close to 100%. The goal for the Big Ten Tournament should be to do enough to be ranked in the top three. At that point, you only have to take out two of the top guys instead of three of them. A healthy Clark wins the National Title this year. A Clark with a shoulder injury makes that proposition more dicey, but I still believe he can string things together and make a run.
1. 125 - Thomas Gilman
Gilman is the man at 125. He has gotten bonus points in all but three of his matches, once against second-ranked, Nick Suriano, once against Tim Lambert, who is another top five guy, and once against Josh Terao, who is just as funky as his brother who was a former All-American. Oh, yeah, there was that other match where Gilman got caught and was down 8-0 with his opponent having nearly four minutes of riding time, but Gilman started pouring on takedowns in the third period, and then decided to turn him over and get the pin. This was against the sixth-ranked wrestler in the nation, which, yeah, you shouldn't be able to do things like that to the sixth-ranked wrestler in the nation. Suriano and Joey Dance of Virginia Tech are both tough, but ain't nobody beating Gilman this year. Everything is coming together, and as long as he stays healthy over the next month, he's going to finally get an asterisk next to his name.
Overall, Iowa has a solid shot at four guys wrestling on Saturday night for the Finals. In one of those four matches, Iowa will have the favorite, they might have the favorite at another and would be heavy underdogs in the other two. Still, every year the NCAA surprises us. Iowa hasn't had an NCAA Tournament where they really peaked and exceeded expectations in quite a few years, so maybe this is the year that they shock the wrestling world. Penn State's going to win another National Title, aren't they? God damnit.
With the wrestling season about halfway over, I thought now would be a good time to check on how Iowa is performing so far this season. Although about half of the year is gone, there are still a lot of question marks, as most of the first half of the schedule provides more cupcakes than proven commodities. Still, things have started taking shape, and we'll go weight-by-weight to break things down.
125 - Thomas Gilman
Gilman has been, without a doubt, the best Iowa wrestler so far this season. He has gone out there and destroyed everything in his path, with the exception of a tough semifinal matchup this past week at the Midlands against Josh Terao from American, who used a whole lot of funk to keep it close but still came up short. Outside of that, he's gotten bonus points against everyone else he has faced this year. With Megaludis graduating and Tomasello moving up to 133, Gilman is the favorite to take the national title at 125, and judging by his wrestling so far this year, I have every reason to believe he will live up to the hype and get an asterisk this year.
133 - Cory Clark and Phillip Laux
Clark started the year off as everyone expected, by going out and dominating his opposition. His closest match was against his teammate, Phillip Laux, but even that match was never in doubt. Unfortunately, after that, Clark suffered an injury that appeared to be non-serious. They said he could have wrestled against Iowa State had he been needed, but he took that off, and three weeks later, the Midlands came and went without Clark seeing the mat. Hopefully it is just precautionary, as Clark is Iowa's second best chance at a National Champion behind Gilman.
Laux has been his replacement, and unfortunately for him, he took over the starting job right before the competition took a big step up. He got manhandled by Seth Gross of South Dakota State but then has held his own in his other matches, including against Iowa State All-American, Earl Hall. Still, Laux is small for the weight and just doesn't have the horsepower to overcome that disadvantage against top competition. He managed to go 2-2 at the Midlands, and he always competes; that's really all you can ask for. 141 - Topher Carton
This weight was originally supposed to be contested between Carton and Vince Turk, but Turk suffered a knee injury early in the season, so Carton was given the starting job to run with. Carton looked great early in the season as he was steamrolling overmatched opponents in nearly all of his matches. However, he finally ran into real competition at the Midlands, and things got far more difficult for him. Kevin Jack of North Carolina State controlled him in their match, which isn't too surprising as Jack is a national title contender. But he also lost a close match to Rohlfing from CSU Bakersfield, and it's those kinds of matches that he needs to find ways to win. He still doesn't have a marquee win, but he also hasn't had a lot of opportunities for one. He's definitely good enough to qualify for the NCAAs, but it's tough to tell how much he can do once he gets there until he starts facing consistent competition during the B1G conference schedule.
Also, fun fact, I was super confused when he was referred to as Christopher Carton at the Midlands. My first thought was that his middle name must be Topher, and then I finally realized that Topher is short for Christopher. It is clear that I have never met a Topher in my life.
149 - Brandon Sorensen
Sorensen has gone out and nearly gotten bonus points in all of his matches, and despite that, it still seems rather unimpressive. Sorensen is clearly the second best guy at 149, but it's also clear that he's still nowhere near #1 ranked Zain Retherford. He was in way too many matches that were too close for comfort, but he managed to come out on top against everyone but the Zain Train. I guess I'm just preemptively complaining about a possible upset loss in a close match at the NCAAs that may or may not happen. He hasn't lost one of those in a long time, so I guess it's best to just sit back and enjoy the terrifyingly close ride.
157 - Michael Kemerer
I am so freaking excited about Michael Kemerer. Iowa doesn't often have explosive athletes on the wrestling team, but when they do, they are so much fun to watch. The first name that came to my mind when watching Kemerer was Montell Marion. Marion came achingly close to a couple national titles, but never could pull it off, but that doesn't diminish how great it was to be able to watch him compete. When his offense was on, he could blast through people on the feet. Marion wasn't great at scoring on top, and right now, that's still a question mark for Kemerer as well, but the guy won the Midlands as a Freshman in maybe the most exciting match of the tournament against Nebraska's Tyler Berger. He's undefeated and seen as a top-5 guy. This is going to be fun.
Note: The only disappointing thing about Kemerer is his nickname is KemDawg. How is it not KemTrails? I might have to start a petition.
That's it for today. I'll finish up tomorrow with the big boys.
So the NCAA Tournament did not exactly work out how Hawkeye fans had hoped it would. Penn State was expected to win, and they went out and dominated. It seems as if there is nobody better than Cael Sanderson in prepping his team for the NCAA Tournament, and this year was no different. Even though there were some disappointments for the Hawkeyes, there were also things to celebrate. Let's break it down in chronological order to get through the muck early, so we can celebrate late.
141 - Brody Grothus - N/A
Iowa didn't qualify anybody for the tournament, and there was no Vince McMahon to bring in a brand new Iowa wrestler, Grody Brothus, to liven things up at the Nationals. So, yeah, nothing to note here.
165 - Patrick Rhoads - 0-2
Rhoads was unseeded, and he lived up to that in the tournament. He lost both of his matches. He just didn't have the necessary skills to generate any offense. He wrestled hard; it just wasn't enough.
Heavyweight - Sam Stoll - 0-1
I knew this was a possibility. Sam Stoll's injured knee just couldn't hold up. If he was healthy, I think he would have become an All-American as a freshman, which would have been an incredible accomplishment. Only his knee did give out, and it's a what if as opposed to what actually happened. Wrestling is a hard sport, and it always sucks to see a talented guy not be able to showcase what he has worked so hard for because his body simply can't perform (Brian Realbuto was another example from this year). I'm guessing he'll still struggle early in the season next year, but he will hopefully be back to 100% by the time the matches get meaningful.
157 - Edwin Cooper - 1-2
We knew Cooper was going to need some good matchups to do much damage in this tournament, and unfortunately, he did not get those matchups. He got to his offense early in his first round matchup and took care of business with an 8-3 win. After that, he got matched up with Ian Miller, who nearly beat Isaiah Martinez in the semifinals, and Miller just ran right through Cooper. After that, he was in a match against Austin Matthews from Edinboro, and he started off really well as he got into a shot immediately, but he couldn't finish his shots. After that, he lost some scrambles, ended up on his back repeatedly, and finally got pinned as he knew it was basically the end for him. Obviously, it would have been preferable for him to win another match or two, but he beat the guy he should have, lost to a guy he should have, and didn't find the breaks in his the match that was pretty even going into it. It happens.
174 - Alex Meyer - 4-3 - All American (8th)
Alex Meyer came much closer to having a bigger impact in the tournament. Unfortunately, he got off to a slow start where he was in a match that was seven minutes long, and about six minutes of that were scrambles. He lost 10-9 to Gordon Wolf in a match that he would definitely win the next time around, but that's what makes winning the NCAAs so tough. You face a mystery opponent and one slip up and you've lost your shot at a national title. After that, Meyer really started wrestling great. In the consolation round, he took out the 4, 6, 9, and 14 seeds on his route to become an All-American, and I think he may have trailed in each of those matches. He finally lost to Zach Epperly who took third place in the tournament. Even that was on Friday night after Meyer had a match while Epperly advanced by medical forfeit. On Saturday morning, he lost a hard fought match against Cody Walters from Ohio who pulled out the victory in the final seconds. It was disappointing to end with a couple losses, but considering how he battled back after his first match, it was a really strong performance for Meyer and gives Hawkeyes a reason for excitement for his senior year.
184 - Sammy Brooks - 3-3 - All-American (8th)
Where Alex Meyer bounced back to become a happy surprise as an 8th place finisher, it seems that 8th place is what happened for Sammy Brooks because everything went wrong. He won his first two matches, and then had his third match with TJ Dudley of Nebraska. It was an issue of falling behind early and then not having enough time to catch up. He did make it interesting though as he continually went for upper body throws and actually put Dudley on his back for a second, but he couldn't hold the position, and Dudley held on to win and eventually make it to the finals. That easily could have been Brooks going up against Gabe Dean, but alas, it was not meant to be. On the back half, things continued to get screwy. Brooks faced Dominic Abounader from Michigan and put him on his back in the first period. Right before he is about to complete the pin, the second ref stops the match because he thought there may be an illegal hold. There wasn't, but Brooks lost the position and an extra two points. On top of that, Iowa lost another team point because Assistant Coach, Ryan Morningstar, would not stop screaming at the officials. Iowa would have made the podium as a team with those points, but fourth place isn't really all that important to the Hawkeyes despite what the announcers were saying on Saturday night. Back to Brooks, instead of having a two minute match, he had to go seven hard minutes and then wrestle again later that night against Mat Miller who did get a two minute pin and got up early on Brooks. Sammy went for a big move but got put on his back and pinned. The next morning it was more of the same where Brooks got down and never came close to coming back against Nathaniel Brown from Lehigh. It was a disappointing end to what had been a very good season for Brooks. Still, I think he's a top competitor at 184 next year.
197 - Nathan Burak - 4-2 - All-American (4th)
Burak did exactly what he was supposed to do. He was seeded fourth and he finished fourth. Really, there's nothing to complain about. He won his first three matches, went up against Morgan McIntosh and lost his sixth match to McIntosh. He couldn't generate any offense, and that's the way it has always gone against McIntosh. In what was the only match between Iowa and Iowa State wrestlers, Burak bounced back to beat Patrick Downey in sudden victory. He then lost to Brett Pfarr, a guy he had split with in their previous two matches. Burak was an incredibly solid wrestler for all four years, but he just never had the athleticism to take out the top guys. Iowa would be lucky to get anything close to Nathan Burak for their next starter at 197.
149 - Brandon Sorensen - 4-1 - All-American (2nd)
Brandon Sorensen came in as the #2 seed, and he lived up to that seed. Ultimately, it was a really good performance from Sorensen. The guy is not a point scoring machine, but he is solid everywhere, and he finds ways to win. After a major decision in the first round, he won by two points in his next three matches, one of which went to the second sudden victory period against Jake Sueflohn. It's not flashy, but it gets the job done, and it got him into the finals. That earned him a second match against Zain Retherford, and Retherford is just on another level right now. I think he deserves the Hodge Trophy for best wrestler at any weight class, and he completely overwhelmed Sorensen in the finals. Still, Sorensen did the best of any of his opponents as he was the only one to last all seven minutes. Retherford won by tech fall, pin, pin, and pin before the finals. I feel like second place was his ceiling, and he reached it. Unfortunately, Zain is only a sophomore, so I don't really see that ceiling changing in the next two years.
133 - Cory Clark - 4-1 - All-American (2nd)
Clark wrestled a smart tournament. And by smart, I am implying safe. He got a major decision in his first match and then just plugged along with enough offense to win each match. It got him to the finals where he met Nahshon Garrett, and Garrett is a different sort of wrestler. Technique wise, Clark can hang with anyone, but Garrett's athleticism gave him a lot of problems. Garrett did an excellent job of finding open spots to take his shots, and he was very successful in doing so. The match ended up 7-6, but it really wasn't that close, as Garrett took a large lead and played it safe to hang on to win in the end. Next year, this weight class opens up as the guys who have beat him the last two years (Garrett and Cody Brewer) both graduate. There's a good chance he opens the year as the top ranked wrestler in the 133 pound weight class.
125 - Thomas Gilman - 4-1 - All-American (2nd)
Although he was one of three Hawkeyes to be runner-up in his weight class, Gilman had the best performance of any Hawkeye in the tournament. He absolutely steamrolled his way into the semifinals with a tech fall and two major decisions. He then faced top-ranked Nathan Tomasello and battled for seven minutes. Tomasello almost got a takedown at the end, but Gilman managed to hold him off. Then in overtime, Tomasello looked pretty gassed, and Gilman was not only able to get a takedown, but he got the pin as well to give Iowa even more bonus points. Tomasello was the only top-seeded wrestler to not make the finals, so it was a great job by Gilman. As for the finals, Gilman had a good shot early on, but Megaludis was able to reverse the advantage and get two himself. It changed the whole dynamic of the match, and Gilman wasn't able to make up the deficit. Still, Gilman had a great tournament, and he'll be a co-favorite with Tomasello to win the National Title next year.
This was a disappointing season in many ways for Iowa. Not winning the National Title was not one of them, as Penn State was absolutely stacked, and it was going to take not only Iowa performing well but Penn State to perform poorly to rise to that standard. Still, fifth place is about as low as this team could have finished. The most disappointing part were all those even numbers in the All-American finishes. Every single Iowa wrestler ended his season with a loss. It leaves a bad taste in the mouth, but maybe it's just what they need to take a big step forward for 2017.
Does Iowa have a shot at the 2016 NCAA Wrestling Championship? Well, the short answer is yes. They have a shot, but they are going to need some help to pull it off. Iowa failed to qualify all ten weight classes this season, in fact; they barely qualified nine. That puts them in a slight hole, although tournament favorite, Penn State, has just as many wrestlers competing this weekend. I touched on which guys had the best shot of winning a National Title a couple weeks ago, so I'd definitely check that out, but now that the brackets are out, I wanted to quickly thoroughly look at how things shaped up for each Iowa wrestler before addressing their chances of winning the team title.
125 - Thomas Gilman - #4 Seed
After losing to Nico Megaludis of Penn State in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament, this was as good of a seed as can be expected for Gilman There are four elite talents at this wegiht, so Gilman was going to have to go through two of them either way. I don't see any real chance of Gilman not making it into the semifinals (obviously, anything could happen, like Gilman getting caught in a cradle in the semifinals last year, but it's very doubtful). He has beaten #1 seed Nathan Tomasello before, and he has the skills to do it again. Joey Dance beat Megaludis earlier in the year, and that match could go either way. I had Gilman as having the best chance of winning a National Title, and I'd say that he has probably become 1B in my current rankings, but that is mostly because of how things shook out for Iowa's next wrestler.
133 - Cory Clark - #2 Seed
Cory Clark moves into that 1A spot based on him winning the Big Ten Tournament but also because he got a great draw for the tournament. The biggest benefit that despite Cory Clark beating Zane Richards in the finals of the B1G Tournament, Richards stayed at the 3 seed which means that the gy who beat Clark in last year's NCAA Tournament, the defending National Champion, Cody Brewer, is at the 4 seed on the same side as Nahshon Garrett, whom Brewer lost to earlier this season. The biggest dark horse in this weight, Ryan Taylor, from Wisconsin, got a 12 seed which also puts him on the opposite side as Clark. The biggest threat up until the semifinals is probably 10 seed, Johnni DiJulius, who has beaten Clark previously, but it seems like Clark has his funk figured out, and I expect him to cruise into the semifinals. This was a great draw, and that's why I'm even more excited about Clark's chances of getting an asterisk next to his name.
141 - Brody Grothus - Did Not Qualify
Brody Grothus got a tough draw in the B1G Tournament. He drew the top seed in his first match and lost a close match. Then the #3 seed got upset and met him in his first consolation match, and he lost another close match. Had things broken a little more favorably for him, he could have shown he has the talent to compete at the NCAAs, but it's an unfortunate end to an up and down career for Grothus.
149 - Brandon Sorensen - #2 Seed
Sorensen lost in the finals to Penn State's Zain Retherford, who has run through everyone this year. Sorensen maintained a #2 seed which is good, but his side of the bracket is no joke. He should cruise in his first two matchups, but that likely sets up another matchup against Jake Sueflohn, who Sorensen handled in the B1G Tourney but who is a very tough out. His side of the bracket also includes Lavion Mayes from Missouri, Anthony Collica from Oklahoma State, and former National Champion Jason Tsirtsis, who appears to be struggling with injuries this year but is still a guy who can make a match against anybody. Sorensen has the skills to make it to the finals; there's a reason he's ranked #2, but he never really threatened Retherford when they wrestled, so it's really hard to see a National Title coming his way.
157 - Edwin Cooper - #13 Seed
Edwin Cooper has made tremendous strides this year, and it's a great accomplishment to get seeded at this weight. That being said, it's going to be tough to rise up and become an All-American, because this weight class is DEEP. As long as he wins in the first, he takes on Ian Miller, who is a returning All-American whose only loss was due to a concussion suffered in his conference tournament last weekend where he was forced to injury default in his match. This weight class is stacked on paper, but that's the beauty of this tournament, in that anything can happen in seven minutes of wrestling.
165 - Patrick Rhoads - Unseeded
Well, I'll be damned. Patrick Rhoads made the tournament. He is unseeded, but got a favorable draw in that he goes up against the #13 seed. Rhoads wrestled really well in the B1G tournament outside of taking a beating from the top seed, Isaac Jordan. He has the skills to make matches tight against all but the top level of competition, so maybe a couple matches will go his way. He's not making the podium, but he has the potential to score some points, and Iowa needs all of the points they can get in their efforts for a team title.\
174 - Alex Meyer - #13 Seed
More than any wrestler on Iowa's roster, Meyer has put Hawkeye fans through an emotional rollercoaster this year. He has raised expectations, only to dash them later on. When he is aggressive early on, he can take out anybody, but sometimes he digs himself large holes early and doesn't have enough time to make up the deficits. Predicting what he is going to do is a fool's errand. He's just had so many close matches this year. Since I'm an eternal optimist, I think the aggressive Meyer will show up and put points on the board and cause major issues for anybody he goes up against. He has the skills to be an All-American, but he could just as easily play with fire and burn out before the Round of 12.
184 - Sammy Brooks - #2 Seed
Sammy Brooks receiving the #2 seed seems...generous. I'm not complaining, but I do believe this seeding was only partly from him winning the B1G Tournament; a lot of the credit has to go to the power of his mullet.
Outside of Gabe Dean at #1, 184 is a wide open but very deep division, and that is why Brooks got the 2 seed for the NCAAs despite only being the 3 seed for the B1G Tournament. Full disclosure: Sammy Brooks is my favorite current Iowa wrestler, and so I am even more blinded by my own bias when it comes to predicting his results. He can beat anybody at this weight class. He wrestled Gabe Dean last year and only lost 3-2. All of his losses to college wrestlers this season have come to guys that he has also beaten this year. I'd say he cruises through his first two matches before meeting 10 seed, Nate Brown in the quarters. I'm then favoring Blake Stauffer (6) to make it to the semifinals. He was the guy who eliminated Brooks in the Round of 12 last year, but I'm hoping Sammy can reverse his fortune this year. I'm not guaranteeing a National Title, but I just want to let everybody know that it is in your best interest to not doubt the power of the mullet.
197 - Nathan Burak - #4 Seed
The one inexplicably bad seed for Iowa, as it makes no sense that Pfarr from Minnesota would be ranked ahead of Burak considering he lost to him in the B1G Tournament. He did beat him earlier in the season, but even that was controversial, and the NCAA valued tournament performance very highly when coming up with seeds. One spot may not seem like much, but it puts him on the side of Morgan McIntosh, who he is 0-5 against, and the 5 seed is Conner Hartmann who is 26-1 this year and appears to be a much tougher matchup than the 6 seed, Jared Haught. Burak has taken care of business this year, but with his previous history against McIntosh, it's tough to see him doing any better than a third place match when it's all said and done.
HWT - Sam Stoll - #11 Seed
I think this is about as good as we could have expected for Sam Stoll after crapping out at the B1G Tournament. What happened? A significant knee injury, possibly a torn ACL, so the fact that he won any match is pretty impressive. But if it is as significant as it sounds, this is an awful way for Stoll to end his year as before this injury, his only losses were to the #1 seed, Nick Gwiazdowski and the #4 seed, Austin Marsden, who, between the two, have one loss this season. A healthy Stoll is an All-American, but if this version of Stoll can gut out 1-2 victories, it'd be a great performance.
So what does this all mean? Does Iowa have a legitimate shot at an NCAA Title? Yes, but they're going to need some breaks. Both Clark and Gilman have legitimate shots at National Titles this year, and if they can both pull it off, that is a huge boost to their chances. Even with that, Penn State is the clear favorite, and they're going to need some of their wrestlers to falter.
Zain Retherford isn't going to lose, and he's probably putting up a ton of bonus points. Morgan McIntosh is the second most likely to win a title, so you've got to hope that J'Den Cox can prevent that from happening. Bo Nickal doesn't have a single guy who looks most likely to take him out, but there's a reason Freshman don't win a lot of National Titles, so maybe he gets caught in a bad spot like he did against Nate Jackson and takes a loss well before he should. I think Nolf is their second best wrestler, but Isaiah Martinez beat him the B1G Finals, and he is set to face off against an undefeated Thomas Gantt before he even makes it there, but I have trouble seeing him not making the finals. Even Nico Megaludis, who is ranked 3, is somebody I could only see dropping to fourth place in this tournament. That's a lot of points in the worst case scenario, especially with how many bonus points those guys have put up this season.
As I said, Iowa needs those first two guys to take home titles for a legitimate shot at the overall title. After that, it's about having guys peak at the right time. Penn State has had their guys peak at the NCAAs for the last five years; Iowa has pretty much done the opposite. Those fortunes need to reverse this year. Iowa's always in the title hunt; hopefully this is the year they get number 24.
Last week, I looked at each weight class's #1 ranked wrestler to show how crazy this NCAA Tournament could be. There are a lot of questions remaining, and things are wide open in some of those weight classes. Now it's time to determine which Iowa wrestler is going to rise above their seed and win a National Title in 2016. We'll start from the least likely and move our way on up to the Hawkeye that is most likely to be standing on top of the podium at the end of March Matness. 10. Patrick Rhoads - 165
Is it legitimate analysis to just write, "Haha, nope," and call it a day? I will be excited if Rhoads finds a way to make the tournament. If he got a win once he got there, that would be incredible. But Rhoads simply hasn't shown enough for me to even dream beyond that point.
9. Brody Grothus - 141
This is the only other Iowa wrestler who is a question mark to make the tournament. He's going to need a strong performance at the Big Ten Tournament to qualify, but I think he can do it. Outside of that, it's tough to say what he will do considering he's only had a handful of matches. He can definitely compete with guys, and I think he could be a viable contributor of some points if he gets in the tournament, especially with how weak 141 is as a weight class overall, but he's still got work to do, so I can't put him any higher than this right now.
8. Edwin Cooper - 157
This weight class has two absolute studs in Isaiah Martinez and Jason Nolf, so the chances of a National Title, well, it ain't happening. The key for Cooper in his matches is to start quickly. He's shown to be really dynamic on his feet, but if he gets down, it can get ugly. He really hasn't done much in the world of mat wrestling, from top or bottom, so it is going to be tough for him to find a way to win close matches in the tournament. Still, he's got a few solid wins, and he's taken care of business against guys he should beat. The only time he was really overmatched was against Gantt from NC State, so he has the skills to make an impact. It would take an incredible run for him to even reach AA status, but he has enough potential to put up a few wins and get points for the team battle.
7. Sam Stoll - HWT
This is when we stop looking at straight talent and start looking at the obstacles standing in their way to a National Championship. Sam Stoll has had a hell of a Freshman year, as he has exceeded everyone's expectations for him. Since his first varsity match, he has lost just one time, while racking up nine pins. Oh, and that one loss? That came to the top-ranked Nick Gwiazdowski (which I spelled right on the first try). That's the problem. Nick Gwiazdowski is in this weight class, and although Stoll has beaten good competition, he hasn't beaten great competition. I think he can become an All-American, but his chances of a National Title are minuscule.
6. Alex Meyer - 174
I was very excited about Meyer taking over the starting spot this season, as he showed a ton of promise when filling in last year. If you just looked at his record, you would probably still be excited. He only has two losses, and went undefeated in the Big Ten. That's good, but watching it all play out tells a different story. Meyer has rarely been the attacking wrestler that he was last season. He just hasn't wrestled much top competition this year, and he hasn't blown out guys that aren't on his level. He only had one match where he looked overwhelmed, and that seemed to just be a bad matchup, but wrestling close matches all the time and expecting to always come out on top is not a recipe for success. This is a winnable weight class, as I'm not sold on Nickal being an elite talent (yet, dude is great for a freshman), but Meyer just has too many question marks to pick him any higher than this. Still, All-American status is well within reach, but with a guy who has so many close matches, I could see anything from 3rd place to a 1-2 finish.
5. Nathan Burak - 197
Burak could very easily be undefeated this year, and I still can't put him any higher than this. Burak is the most solid wrestler that Iowa has, as he's not going to make any big mistakes, and he'll wrestle a smart match. But there just isn't enough high-end talent to see him having a great shot at a National Title. Morgan McIntosh and J'Den Cox are elite talents, and I see Burak just below that level. I see him as having a very high floor as I would be shocked if he wasn't an All-American, but I see him peaking around third place, which would be a great finish, but I just can't see that National Title.
4. Sammy Brooks - 184
Sammy Brooks is my favorite current Hawkeye wrestler. He's not the best, but the dude always goes for it whether it works or not. He's wrestled incredibly well this year, as he split a pair of matches with Hayden Zillmer, who is ranked fourth, and he got caught in a pin by TJ Dudley. Outside of that, he lost to David Taylor who is not only ridiculously good, but also graduated two years ago. He can compete with anybody, and I think he has the firepower to win the Big Tens. If he does that, it gets him a top-5 seed, and although beating Gabe Dean won't be easy, he wrestled him tough last year, and if he is aggressive, anything is possible. The chance of him winning a National Title is definitely small, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't an All-American. 3. Brandon Sorensen - 149
Sorensen is ranked as high as any Hawkeye at #2 at his weight class, and had you asked me about this weight class earlier in the year, I may have put him at the top of this list. But since a torrid start, he has slowed down, and Zain Retherford has sped up, as he has absolutely plowed through everyone that has stood in his way. Sorensen, meanwhile, has wrestled closely with guys that he should be blowing out, and it's tough to believe he can come out on top. I don't think Retherford is unbeatable, but Sorensen has to wrestle with reckless abandon if he is going to do enough to come out on top. It's tough for me to predict that when I haven't seen it for months. Still, he's got a great shot of making it to the raised stage on Saturday night.
2. Cory Clark - 133
Last year, I said Cory Clark had the best chance of anybody to win a National Title at his lowest point in the season. I knew how dangerous he could be when he was wrestling well, and he almost proved me right by making the finals before losing to Cody Brewer who was on an absolute tear throughout that tournament. I don't think his chances have gotten any worse, but the guy at the top's chances have gotten better. Clark has only lost one match this year, in Sudden Victory to the guy currently ranked #2, and he did that less than two weeks after suffering an injury that made him pull out of the Midlands. Cody Brewer is still there, and Nahshon Garrett is ranked #1, but Clark is the first guy that I've listed that I wouldn't be surprised if he was a National Champion this year. Everyone up to this point needs some luck, but Clark is legit, and he could definitely take the title at 133. 1. Thomas Gilman - 125
Thomas Gilman, back with a vengeance this year. After he got upset in the semifinals by Zeke Moisey last year, he has come out this year and simply dominated all of his competition. The only reason he is still only ranked second is that the defending national champion, Nathan Tomasello has done just as well this year. They will likely get another match at the Big Ten Tournament, and that will decide who goes in at #1, but the real deal will be who is peaking at the NCAAs. There is some other tough competition in Joey Dance and Nico Megaludis, but Gilman has the firepower and the intensity to overwhelm anyone that he faces. I think this is the year he gets his asterisk.
As for the team side of things, well, it's going to be tough. Penn State is loaded, but some of their top ranked guys are susceptible to upsets. Cael Sanderson has done a phenomenal job of getting his guys to peak at the right time, and Iowa's results have been rather pedestrian in the tournament. They're going to have to outperform their seeds and get contributions from the entire team (minus 165). It's not likely, but it is possible. The Big Tens will be interesting, but the NCAAs will be epic.
I flew up from Florida this past weekend to attend the Iowa vs. Oklahoma State wrestling meet at Kinnick Stadium. Being at the football stadium, it was dubbed Grapple on the Gridiron. It was totally awesome, and I cannot recommend it enough.
Having an outdoor wrestling meet during the middle of November in Iowa is a risky proposition, but things turned out shockingly well for everyone. The weather was between 50 and 60 degrees with nothing but sunshine as there was not a cloud in the sky. Since there was also a football game featuring the #5 team in the nation taking on one of their most hated rivals, parking could have been a severe issue, but they opened up lots a little ways away from the stadium and set up a shuttle service to get fans to the meet. I was concerned it'd be a total mess, so we got there early, but things really couldn't have run smoother.
But logistics are boring. Wrestling is anything but. Still, this is not a sport with a lot of glitz and glamour. I didn't expect much showmanship in introductions, but I was pleasantly surprised. Before the wrestling began, Metallica blared from the speakers and Thomas Gilman, Iowa's 125 pound wrestler (who could kick all of our asses), came sprinting out as fire shot out of pyrotechnics like he was The Demon Kane. I was so jacked up I could have roundhoused kicked a kitten. Then the rest of the team came strolling out casually as fire shot up around them, so it had more of a corporate Kane feel to it.
But the reason wrestling is so great is that it is a one-on-one battle of wills that is truly compelling to watch. People who understand the basics of scoring in wrestling and can follow along usually become passionate about following the sport, and although it translates well to television, it is one of the most fun sports to attend live in person. The action is fast-paced, and honestly, some of the most fun moments of being in the crowd were when they were actually between action, but we'll get to that later. One of the great things about wrestling is you get to utilize the oo sound in yelling, which is the best thing to yell. I mean the Cowboys had Moose, the Packers have Kuhn, but every single wrestling meet has TWO, which is incredibly fun to yell when there is a takedown.
And luckily, Iowa had plenty of takedowns. And you bring in over 42,000 people in to a wrestling meet and give a good amount of them some alcohol in their system from tailgating, you're going to have a raucous crowd. As I said earlier, the best moments were probably in between the action. A few of the Oklahoma State wrestlers were absolutely gassed in their matches, as they had no energy and were doing everything they could to just hold on. The most hilarious moment was in the first match was when Oklahoma State's Eddie Klimara was slow to get back to the center of the mat, and Thomas Gilman gave him a shove to the back to help him get there as soon as possible. The Oklahoma State were (rightly) irate, and the Iowa crowd absolutely loved it, because Iowa is BY FAR the dirtiest team in the nation. I 100% understand why other schools hate Iowa, but they're my team, and I love them for their, uh, questionable tactics.
But the best part was definitely watching Oklahoma State wrestlers be slow to get back to the center and try to use every trick they could to stall to help them regain some energy when they were exhausted. I mean, don't get me wrong, it was frustrating to watch as an Iowa fan. But as the Iowa fans erupted in boos anytime an Oklahoma State wrestler was slow to get back to the center of the mat, it dawned on me how amazing it is that college sports allow nearly 50,000 people to tell a 20-year-old college student what a piece of shit he is for being tired. God Bless America.
Overall, it was an awesome experience. I was able to take my Dad to his first wrestling meet, and we had a great time, and I'll definitely be looking to do it again next year (and yeah, considering how huge of a success it was, I can't imagine them not trying to do it again next year). As for the results, the meet itself was back-and-forth, but there were a lot of high scoring matches, and the #4 Iowa Hawkeyes edged out the #1 Oklahoma State Cowboys by a score of 18-16. After that, I thought it was really cool that the University of Iowa let the football team use the wrestling stadium for their game against Minnesota. Iowa won that too, and the world is a better place for it.
The 2015 NCAA Championships were this past weekend. You may have missed most of it if you are a normal sports fan. I am not a normal sports fan, so instead, I watched approximately 300 wrestling matches from Thursday-Saturday, and it was amazing. Bravo to ESPN who had coverage of all eight mats, so I was able to see every match that I was interested in from start to finish. Unfortunately, the payoff wasn't quite there as Iowa did not win the National Title and no Iowa wrestler claimed an individual crown either. I want to take a look at each wrestler and figure out what went wrong, as only two guys on the team outperformed their seed.
125 - Thomas Gilman - 6 Seed - 4th Place
Gilman was one of two Hawkeyes to outperform his seed, and I have very little to complain about with his performance. He had some close matches, but he took care of business. In the first round, he got a major decision. Then he got a takedown in sudden victory to beat Jordan Conaway. On Friday morning, he got a late takedown and rideout to tie the match and erase riding time against Joey Dance. After that, he won again in sudden victory, and I was totally convinced he was going to the Finals. I mean, all he had to do was beat an unranked freshman from West Virginia. Well, that unranked freshman came out firing and I'm not sure if Gilman realized the match had even started before he was wrapped up in a cradle and pinned in the first minute of the match. After that, he bounced back to get a pin to make it into the third place match. He got two early takedowns against Alan Waters from Missouri, but Waters got a takedown and back points in the final period to win the match. 125 was a super tough weight class this year, and outside of the Moisey match, Gilman wrestled everybody tough. It's not what he wanted, but there's no way to say he didn't wrestle incredibly well to take fourth.
133 - Cory Clark - 3 Seed - 2nd Place
Cory Clark was the other guy who outperformed his seed, and he was definitely the top wrestler in this tournament for Iowa. He just went out and took care of business. His first match was probably his worst effort as he had a little bit of a lead and kind of stalled out and held on for the victory, even though he was never in any real danger. After that, he put together a Major Decision and a decisive victory over Hall from Iowa State. He scrapped with Gulibon but showed he was the better wrestler. That took him to his Saturday night final with Cody Brewer. Brewer was definitely peaking at the right time as he got bonus points against every guy he wrestled in the tournament. He was big, strong, and did a great job of getting to his shots. Still, Cory Clark didn't try to protect himself and get passive. Clark kept on attacking, and he wore out Cody Brewer. Brewer easily held on to win by stalling his ass off in the third period, but Clark went hard for seven minutes, and you really can't ask more than that. In January, I picked him as Iowa's best chance at a National Title, and even though he didn't pull it off, he gave it one hell of an effort.
141 - Josh Dziewa - 5 Seed - 2-2 DNP
Josh Dziewa may be the Hawkeye that I feel the worst for in this tournament, because he actually wrestled really tough in all of his matches but got nothing to show for it. He drew Kevin Jack from NC State in the first round and wrestled tough, but Jack was wrestling out of his mind in this tournament. The guy made it to the semifinals before running into Logan Stieber, so it was just a bad draw for Dziewa in the first round. Then, Dziewa gets a Major Decision in his first consolation match only to run into the guy ranked 6th at the weight in Chris Dardanes. I was very concerned about that matchup, but Dziewa nearly got a tech fall as he won by 14 points. It was amazing. Unfortunately, he ran into Mayes from Missouri, and Mayes was just too athletic for him, and he was eliminated before the Round of 12. There are probably six guys at 141 who could beat Dziewa with how he was wrestling. He ran into three of them out of four matches. Still, that guy turned it on at the end of the season and wrestled as well as I had ever seen him. The end result does not match the performance.
149 - Brandon Sorensen - 4 seed - 4th Place
Sorensen is another guy who wrestled really well in this tournament. He took care of business in his first match with a major decision. He has wrestled close matches all year long and found ways to come out on top in nearly all of them, but in his second match, he gave up a cheap takedown at the end of the first period, and his opponent was able to stall his way to a victory. He took out the guy who took out two former National Finalists in his first consolation match. After that, he wrestled hard and won in sudden victory before getting another major decision with some hard wrestling for seven minutes. He then won again to make it into the third place match before losing to Tsirtsis in OT. They had some tough scrambles, but Tsirtsis is a guy who easily could have won back-to-back National Titles had some things gone differently in his Semis match. Sorensen was the 4 seed; he took 4th place, and overall, he looked pretty good doing it. I'm excited to see how he progresses.
157 - Mike Kelly - Unseeded - 0-2 DNP
Mike Kelly was not the most talented guy, but he always worked hard in his matches. I think a lot of Hawkeye fans are ready to say goodbye to Mike Kelly, but I am going to miss him. He came so close to having impressive wins, but it just never happened for him. He got outwrestled by Demas, which wasn't surprising. Then, he came close to hitting some big moves, but in classic Mike Kelly fashion, nothing quite worked out. That second match was winnable, but he unfortunately couldn't get the victory.
165 - Nick Moore - Unseeded - 0-2 DNP
There are a lot of rumors that Nick Moore wrestled this year injured, and I definitely believe it. He was one of the top guys going into the NCAA Tournament last year, had a terrible performance and hasn't looked the same since. There was just no explosion from him. He wrestled hard, but he simply didn't have it. He just couldn't get any offense going. It's a tough way to go out.
174 - Mike Evans - 3 seed - 6th Place
This is the most disappointing one. Sixth place for a 3 seed isn't bad, but I think everybody's left with the feeling that it should have been more. Evans was a maddening wrestler in that he would almost always have slow matches, but he'd still flash glimpses of explosive offense. He cruised into the semifinals after beating arch nemesis, Logan Storley. He met up with his other arch nemesis in Matt Brown and wrestled tough. He came super close on a few takedowns but couldn't quite get it and lost 1-0. That was tough enough, but then he lost another two matches in sudden victory and in the first tiebreaker. So he ended his career losing his last three matches. Last year, it was the defensive pin that wasn't called against Chris Perry, and this year it was a bunch of almosts. For fans who watched Mike Evans, he'll be seen as a special wrestler, but without that asterisk, it will be tough for his name to stand the test of time.
184 - Sammy Brooks - 9 seed - Round of 12
Brooks kind of matched his seed, and his NCAA Tournament closely resembled Dziewa where he wrestled well but just got some really bad matchups. He won his first two matches to set up a rematch with eventual National Champion, Gabe Dean. He pushed the pace the entire match (and even got a stalling call on Dean) until Dean pulled off a takedown with a minute left in the final period. Brooks was charging hard, but Dean held on. He got sent to the consolation bracket where he got faced off against 3 seed, Blake Stauffer from Arizona State. Stauffer was a really bad matchup for Brooks, and he really took it to him. I think Brooks is better than the 9th best wrestler at 184, but he went up against the champion and fourth place finisher in back-to-back matches. It was a tough draw, but he will take over the title of "Guy I think is capable of absolutely anything whether that is reasonable or not" from Mike Kelly. Sammy Brooks brings it hard in every match, so I know he can compete with anybody at 184. A little more experience and he might ruin Gabe Dean's day next year.
197 - Nathan Burak - 6 seed - 7th Place
It may not look it from his finish this year, but Burak took a huge step forward this season. He was far better at snatching that single leg and turning it into points. He has really tightened up his game, and he's a dangerous wrestler at 197. He ran into Gadson, who absolutely peaked and wrestled incredibly well in every match this tournament (hence the national championship he won and the giant bowl of ice cream I am sure he received afterwards). After that, he lost to Morgan McIntosh, who is not a good matchup for Burak, but he kept it closer this time, so that's a positive step. Burak still has a redshirt year to use, and considering that Iowa loses 5 seniors this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him sit out next year and prime himself for a big run in 2017.
Heavyweight - Bobby Telford - 3 seed - 5th Place
It is one of the most incredibly difficult things to be peaking for five matches over three days. Being a little flat and the wrong opponent can end the dream of a national title so easily. Telford was ranked third and went against an unseeded Spencer Myers from Maryland. He was unseeded because of a lack of matches this year, even though he was an All-American last year. He made one mistake early in the match and while he was fighting against the takedown, put himself in a bad spot where he got taken down and gave up two back points. He was aggressive in his comeback, but Myers was able to do enough to hold onto the lead. Then it was Consolation Bracket Bobby Telford who seriously wrestled like he didn't have a care in the world. He steamrolled dudes. Fall in 39 seconds, fall in 1:47. 9-2 win, 4-0 win, 2-0 win. He finally wasn't able to impose his will against Medberry and lost in sudden victory, but he came back to win 5th with a dominant 6-0 victory. He got a huge applause, and you could tell it was still a huge disappointment. Gwiazdowski from NC State looked dominant, but Telford is a tough matchup for anybody.
If things could have gone differently for these Iowa wrestlers in a single moment or single match, who knows what could have happened? But there are 330 qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament, and 320 are asking themselves the same question. What could have been? This wasn't the year for Iowa, on a team or individual level, but there are plenty of positive things to build on. And it's Iowa. They may lose five seniors, but they don't rebuild; they reload. They'll be one of the top five teams in the nation next year, and things may get tougher next year, but anything can happen at Nationals. That's what makes it such an incredible thing to watch.
The 2014-2015 Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling team is currently ranked number one in the nation. They have managed this despite not having a single guy ranked in the top two spots in their weight class to start the year. This is a team built on depth, but that does not mean that no Iowa wrestler will get a National Championship. It is going to be tough, but every wrestler is ranked, so you certainly can't count any of them out. As I see it, each Iowa wrestler falls into one of three tiers. So let's look at where Iowa stands currently and rank the wrestlers in order of their chances of getting an asterisk next to their name in the Iowa wrestling room.
It Would Take a Miracle 10. Josh Dziewa
Yes, I know Dziewa is not the lowest ranked Iowa wrestler, but if you saw the Ohio State meet, you would understand why he really has no shot at winning a national title. That's not a total knock on him, as if you put an equivalent of Logan Stieber at any weight class, the Iowa wrestler's chances of winning it all would basically end up at about zero. Stieber is by far the best wrestler at any weight class this year, and nobody is going to beat him. The other issue is that Mitchell Port is pretty great too. Dziewa may not win a national title, but he has shown he can be good enough to wrestle tough against anybody outside of the top guys, so if he wrestles a hard tournament, he can still be an All-American this year. Unrelated: Dziewa produced my favorite moment of The Midlands as the poor announcer pronounced his name Dzoo-ee-wa (it's pronounced Jeva).
9. Mike Kelly
Let me just start by stating that I am completely irrational when it comes to Mike Kelly. More than any Iowa wrestler, Kelly goes for big moves. Now I have to say he goes for them, because I am nearly positive it has NEVER worked out for him. Half of the time it turns into nothing, and half the time his opponent reverses him for a big move of their own. That being said, every time he goes for a big throw, I am 100% convinced that this will be the time that it works out for him. I am convinced that he is just as good of a wrestler as Dylan Ness, but Ness has perfected funky wrestling, and there is literally no funk in Mike Kelly. If Mike Kelly can absorb the funk of Ben Askren, he has a legitimate shot of winning a title, but since that is not actually a possible thing. Ness, James Green, and Ian Miller are all on another level from Kelly. Still, he may only be ranked 16th, but he is on the rise, and deep down, in my totally biased heart, I think he could be an All-American, but he could just as easily go 0-2 and leave Iowa fans in a deep depression.
8. Nick Moore
Before the NCAA Tournament last year, Nick Moore had a strong case that he was the second best wrestler in his weight class (a distant second, considering David Taylor was there, but still). He beat Tyler Caldwell who was ranked second and barely lost to the guy who was ranked third. He had the fourth seed and promptly proceeded to have the wheels completely fall off in the NCAAs. He has simply not been the same wrestler since. He used to be rock solid, where he would get his takedown and be nearly impossible to score on. For some reason, that has changed this year in that he can't get to offense and people are finding holes in his defense on the feet. Honestly, if he keeps wrestling like this, I would say he might have the smallest shot at becoming an AA. But he has shown he can be better, so I hope that he is better. A National Title is still probably asking too much, but being the extremely optimistic Iowa fan that I am, I can't rule it out.
They Can Compete With Anybody 7. Thomas Gilman
You could make a pretty strong case that Gilman is the Hawkeyes fourth best wrestler, but he ranks at seven, because 125 is an extremely tough weight class at the top this year. He is currently ranked number five, and he's only looked good, not great this year. He lost to the fourth ranked wrestler in the finals of the Midlands, but then got a 4-point tech fall, because he was unable to get any back points in his 25-10 match. Finally, he got a very good win against Ohio State, but it came in overtime, because he never got to any offense. but he's likely going to have to go up against two of the Delgado, Waters, Garrett trifecta, and it's going to be tough for him to come out on top with what he has shown so far this season. Still, this if the first guy that I have mentioned where I would be shocked if he didn't become an All-American this year.
6. Nathan Burak
Since becoming an All-American last year, Burak looks like a changed wrestler. He seems to have a lot of confidence on his feet, and he has been more willing to take shots while also doing a better job of finishing them. He's strong on top and pretty solid at escaping from the bottom as well, so he won't be an easy out for anybody. This weight class has good depth as the top seven guys could all conceivably make a run but aren't so strong that they aren't in danger of getting upset. Burak hasn't wrestled the toughest competition yet this year, so his meets against Minnesota and Penn State will go a long way in determining what type of talent he is bringing to the National Tournament. I have him with the sixth best chance for now, but I could definitely see him moving up a few spots depending on how he looks against Schiller and McIntosh.
5. Brandon Sorensen
Sorensen just had himself a hell of a week. He took third at the Midlands, got the starting job at 149 over Brody Grothus and proceeded to get a big win over Rutgers before beating the fifth ranked wrestler from Ohio State, Hunter Stieber. He is now ranked fifth in a very winnable weight class. Jason Tsirtsis is rightfully ranked number one as he is undefeated and the defending national champion, but he wrestles a lot of close matches (he beat Brody Grothus after two full overtimes on riding time), and it's tough to count on winning all of those when you get to the tournament. Sorensen still has to get better as the season goes on. Although his win over Stieber is great, it was mostly based on conditioning as opposed to skill, so he needs to get a marquee victory before he can be seen as a top candidate to win it all. Luckily, he'll have plenty of chances to prove himself, especially with the second ranked wrestler, Josh Kindig, on schedule next when Iowa takes on Oklahoma State.
4. Sammy Brooks
Brooks just gets after it. He has been the most aggressive Iowa wrestler this season, and guys who can get to offense have a great chance of succeeding at the tournament. He has also done a good job of getting turns, although he is not the best at accumulating riding time. There has been a lot of chaos at this weight class so far this season as Gabe Dean was supposed to be the top dog, dropped to seventh, and is now ranked number one again. Brooks lost to Dechow, but he showed that he can hang with the top guys, and he still has the potential to get better as the season goes on and he gets more experience against top competition. He's going to be a tough out for anybody, and although there are no world-beaters, there are a lot of tough guys that he'll have to go through. I'm not saying he can't, but it is going to be tough.
Legitimate Shot 3. Bobby Telford
I'll admit when I formulated this list in my head, I had Telford first, and considering his win at The Midlands and his current #1 ranking, it makes a lot of sense. Telford has wrestled phenomenally this year. Medberry gave him a tough match, but that's the guy currently ranked fifth in the nation. He squeaked by McMullan, who was #1 before dropping a spot from the loss. I think Telford finally wrestled to his potential for the first time last year at the NCAAs, and he has carried that into this year, but every year, he starts out as a dominator of worlds and the aggression fades where he ends up in a lot of 1-0, 2-1. That's not a great recipe for success. He's still got Marsden, Coon, Lawson, and McMullan again before he even gets to the Big Ten Tourney. Those are all guys who are going to wrestle him close. I think there are four guys who have a legit shot with Telford, McMullan, Gwiazdowski, and Coon (who is only 8, but wrestles as good as anybody when he's at the top of his game). I think Telford can beat any of those guys, but I can't guarantee it.
2. Mike Evans
Mike Evans is Iowa's best wrestler. But he's still number two, because the top of 174 is going to be an absolute dogfight. Right now, the rankings would probably work out best for Evans, as I think he has the best chance against Storley, followed by Brown, and then distantly followed by Kokesh who struggled against Evans early in their college careers, but has really taken it to Evans in their most recent matchups. These guys are going to sort out the rankings during the Big Ten season, but anything can happen at the NCAAs, and I think it will be very difficult for the Big Ten champ to repeat two weeks later. Evans not only can beat anybody at this weight, when it comes to the top guys, he has beaten anybody at this weight. Anybody can get hot and wrestle their best out of those guys, which means the Stache could come out on top, or the refs could refuse to call a pin for him in the semifinals again this year...
not that I'm bitter or anything.
1. Cory Clark
The timing of this may make my pick especially surprising, as Clark was just upset by Johnni DiJulius on Sunday. Honestly, it was a great strategy from DiJulius, as he used some funky moves and shoulders that can be put in any position imaginable to build up an early lead and hold on late. I think Clark will figure him out in time for the Big Ten Tournament and have his number if he has to face him at the NCAA Tourney. After that, the biggest thing at this weight class is that there is no dominant wrestler at this weight class. Schopp was number one, but he got upset at the Midlands, and now Dardanes is number one, but he's not a world beater. Cory Clark showed that he can handle the tournament situation with his win at the Midlands, and it's not just a matter of Clark being able to compete with anybody at this weight class, it's that nobody has done anything to be favored against him in future matches for the rest of this season. Before the season, Clark and Gilman said that they would be better than McDonough and Ramos. Those were big words, as those guys accounted for six All-American finishes and three national titles. I have no doubt that those guys will add to the All-American numbers, and if any Hawkeye is going to get an asterisk next to his name, Cory Clark is my pick to do it.
