Monday, March 30, 2015

Deep Ball Accuracy Is Overrated

When watching tape of the top quarterback prospects in this upcoming draft, I start to notice things. One of these things is that deep ball accuracy is overrated. It is something that gets stressed with the pundits, but it doesn't tell you much about a quarterback prospect.

It's basically the equivalent of kicking 50+ yard field goals. Do we really know who's best? It is such a small sample size that judging accuracy is very difficult, but as long as the kicker has the leg strength to get it there, you should be fine. Quarterbacking is the same way. It doesn't matter what a quarterback's completion percentage is on the 30 deep balls he throws during the year, just that he has shown that he can be accurate and that he has the arm strength to get it there. Although a completed deep ball is a huge play, having the ability to complete that deep ball is more important to the game as a whole as it keeps safeties back which gives more room underneath on routes that are easier to complete.

Sometimes, quarterbacks are going to miss deep balls, other times, they will throw it perfectly, but trying to make a sweeping judgment on a tough throw with a small sample size isn't going to tell you much about how that quarterback will perform in the future.

Sidenote: When searching for a banner image, I typed in deep throw, Google images definitely thought I meant deep throat, so that was...something.

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