A New Era of Quarterback Development

One of the hot stories in the NFL has been how well the rookies have performed this year. There was a similar story last year as people were rightfully impressed with what players like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton did last year. There is no denying it; these guys have far exceeded my expectations in their rookie year. 

But I don't think this means that we're in some golden age for quarterbacks. I think that the NFL has just done a much better job with quarterback development. One huge cause is the rise of passing in college football. It was only about 15 years ago when Nebraska was kicking the shit out of people using the option with players like Eric Crouch and Tommie Frazier (Note: If a Nebraska fan is reading this, it was 15 years ago, get over yourselves). College offenses have become much more complicated, and it has no doubt helped quarterback development. 

The other big key has been that offensive coordinators are adjusting their schemes to more closely align with what they were successful with during college. It has created new schemes in the NFL, because the NFL is following college football's lead on innovation. That was definitely not the case until very recently, but college coaches have more freedom to experiment and fail, where NFL coaches have every decision questioned.

But just because these guys are doing so well in their rookie year does not mean that they are going to become superstars. I feel like Andrew Luck is the only guy who I would be shocked if he did not somehow become a superstar quarterback. Everybody else has question marks in my mind. I will openly admit that I have loved Andrew Luck since the beginning of his sophomore year, and I do mean that in a slightly gay way, because watching him pick apart defenses does give me a chub on occasions.

I am not completely sold on RGIII. And the reason has to do with Cam Newton's step back this year. These two are far, far different quarterbacks, but they do both rely on their running abilities to gain yards and open up passing opportunities. RGIII does it with pure speed, and Newton does it with power and a good amount of speed. But the one thing they have in common is that they are in a scheme that is new to most NFL defenses. It is something that they are not running up against with other teams. 

It's a lot like going up against Georgia Tech in college. Their spread option causes opponents a lot of issues, not because of the talent on the field as much as how different it is to face than any other college offense. It takes a while to get used to all of that misdirection, and it can really throw off defenses. But when Iowa played them in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, their offense got overwhelmed as the Hawkeyes had enough time to prepare for their offense and dominated.

Obviously, NFL defenses are not going to have six consecutive bye weeks to prepare for a team, but, for the most part, there are better coaches in the NFL than college. They are going to find things to pick up on and strategies to counteract what is working for the Redskins. I think RGIII is good enough to counter the counter, because his accuracy is far better than Newton's, but I could see there being an issue. It's very likely he becomes a great quarterback, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was more in the top 15 starters than the top 5. 

With Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Brandon Weeden, they have shown flashes of being good quarterbacks (Weeden less than the other two), but they are also quarterbacks who have benefited from their coaches designing offenses to emphasize their strengths. When I type that sentence, it is really amazing that teams were not doing this before, but teams more tried to find quarterbacks who would fit in their system than making a system that fit them. Out of these three guys, I would say that Tannehill has the best shot of being a top 10 quarterback, and I give him a 25% chance of doing that. That sounds bad, but it is really tough to become a top 10 quarterback these days. Outside of Blaine Gabbert, there are not many bad quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, a guy like Joe Flacco goes to the playoffs every year, and you could make the argument that he is not one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league. 

It's too early to get super excited about what is happening with these guys. They are having better rookie years than their predecessors, but they are in a different era than those guys. The second year is the new rookie year, where if guys are succeeding in year two, it is time to be impressed...except for with Andrew Luck, because he's the greatest.

The Most Overrated Quarterback In The 2011 NFL Draft

Blaine Gabbert is the most overrated prospect in the entire NFL Draft.  Somehow 90% of mainstream talent evaluators have blatantly ignored the serious flaws that he has as a quarterback.  What they see is a big, strong kid who runs well and can really spin a football.  Those are all good traits for a quarterback, and I can't deny any of them.

Most evaluators believe that his shining moment came against my beloved Iowa Hawkeyes.  He was 41-57 for 434 yards.  Clearly, those are impressive numbers.  But if you watched the game and tried to evaluate him as a prospect, it was not nearly as impressive as a performance.

The majority of his passes were five-yard outs and crossing patterns where he used his receivers' speed advantage on Iowa's linebackers.  These were very easy pitch-and-catch throws that most high school quarterbacks could make.

He also showed two major flaws in the Iowa game.  He cannot read the field, and he cannot handle pressure.  All of his plays required him to read one side of the field and ideally fire the ball out of there as quickly as possible.  If that is not there, he is slow to look to the other side of the field and his first instinct is to scramble out of the pocket instead of checking out what other receivers he has available.  He also seems to get a bit of tunnel vision when throwing it to his receivers.  Against zone coverage, he will often lead his receivers into tough spots and put them in position to take big hits. 

The other big thing is that he does not handle pressure well.  The second that he feels pressure he tries to sprint at an angle that takes him backwards and towards the sideline.  When he does this, he just focuses on getting away from the defenders and completely loses track of where his receivers are.  If he manages to avoid the rush comfortably enough to look down the field again, he's usually ten yards further back, making a meaningful completion highly unlikely.  And although he has good speed, he is not especially adept at avoiding the rush, as he is not that quick, and he basically has to turn it into a straight sprint away from the defense as opposed to shuffling his feet to buy a little extra time and fire the ball down the field.

His game against Illinois provides great video evidence of what I'm talking about.

When watching Blaine Gabbert, there is one name that keeps coming to my mind.  It's a guy who was put in a very productive offense in college, much like Gabbert had at Missouri.  He put up good, but not great stats compared to other QBs in that system.  The good news is that this quarterback led his team to a Super Bowl.  The bad news is that it's Rex Grossman.

I know that anybody who likes Gabbert as a prospect would have rather had me stab their cat (Missouri Tigers, get it?), but let me explain.  The college comparisons are definitely there, and Rex Grossman was also seen as a first-round talent coming out of college.  Hence, he was drafted 22nd overall.  Most people seem to forget this, but there is such a thing as "Good Rex."  Good Rex did a very good job for the Bears in a lot of games.  But these were the games where his first option in Ron Turner's offense were open.  When that first option was not open, he went into "Fuck it, I'm throwing it deep" mode.

I basically see about the same things happening for Gabbert.  You can't tell me that this doesn't look like something Rex Grossman would do.

If he is an offense where his first look is consistently open, he will look like a pro bowler.  If not, he will have people screaming for Brian Griese to take the starting job.  I'll admit the comparison is a little on the harsh side, so if you want to call Gabbert a rich man's Rex Grossman, I won't argue against that.

While his physical attributes will make some talent evaluators salivate, I wouldn't even think about him until round two.  Could he develop into a great quarterback?  Maybe.  But I don't think it's very likely.  There are too many glaring holes in his game right now.  Calling this guy the next great QB prospect is just plain false and overlooks nearly everything that he's shown in games. 

But there's no need to fret, quarterback needing teams.  Next week, I will reveal the quarterback prospect that I feel is the most underrated in the draft.

-Joe

P.S.  Don't worry, Iowa hating readers, my underrated QB prospect is not Ricky Stanzi.

P.P.S.  In "Troy Tulowitzki is more awesome than you" news, he is allowing fans to pick out his walk-up song for next year after coming out to Party in the USA last year.  Needless to say, I sent in my suggestion of Seal's "Kiss From A Rose."