Reviewing My Fantasy Football Draft - Part 2

My latest fantasy football draft happened Monday night. For the uninformed, it is part of a three sport keeper league with baseball and basketball, and you can trade between sports. I am an impatient person, so I am always wheeling and dealing, and this draft would be no different, as I moved up from 10 to the top overall pick a half hour before the draft. Was it a good deal? Well, we'll get to the details in the post today as I break down the middle five rounds of the draft.

Round 6
61 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB LeGarrette Blount NE
62 Geriatric All Stars  QB Ben Roethlisberger Pit
63 Wegher Bombs RB Isaiah Crowell Cle
64 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  WR Mike Wallace Min
65 Run And Hyde WR Martavis Bryant Pit
66 Hot Joel QB Tony Romo Dal
67 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman QB Matt Ryan Atl
68 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Brandin Cooks NO
69 Graham Cracker RB Ameer Abdullah Det
70 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Ryan Mathews Phi
71 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  RB Tevin Coleman Atl
72 Wegher Bombs WR Allen Robinson Jac

Keepers: Brandin Cooks

Best Pick: Ameer Abdullah
I don’t see a way that Abdullah isn’t the Lions top running back this year. He’s just more talented than Joique Bell. He can do everything, and Joique Bell is already hurt. I could see them shying away from goal line carries, but he’s such a threat in the passing game that I think his receiving and rushing stats will counter balance a possible lack of touchdowns.

Worst Pick: Martavis Bryant
If he wasn’t suspended for four games, I think this is a reasonable spot to take him, but he is suspended for four games, and then he’s going to have to ramp up to get involved in the offense the first few weeks. I don’t think the coaching staff looks fondly on guys who get suspended, so it’s not like they’ll have extra motivation to get him involved. He’s a receiving threat, but for some reason I doubt he is going to eclipse Antonio Brown as Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target.

My Picks: Isaiah Crowell and Allen Robinson
I like Crowell as a running back. The Browns trading away Terrance West made me like Crowell more. The fact that Duke Johnson is struggling with concussions is a reason for me to like him even more. Even if Duke Johnson gets involved, Crowell is going to be the bruising half of the combo, so he’s going to be the guy getting the goal line carries. Early on, he should be great, and if he fades later in the season, that’s when I’ve got Bell and Gurley to take over the running back duties.

Allen Robinson is getting so much hype that it’s getting a little out of control. Still, the guy is a physical marvel as the only guy who tested with more athleticism than him in the last ten years has been Calvin Johnson. I also don’t mind Bortles as a quarterback. People always want to jump to conclusions on rookies, but there are so many aspects of how prospects grow and develop, and the biggest key in that development is time. Bortles will be given the time, and with Robinson, he has a weapon that many people expect to have a breakout year. I hope those people are right.

Round 7
73 Deez Nuts QB Eli Manning NYG
74 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  WR Charles Johnson Min
75 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB C.J. Spiller NO
76 Graham Cracker RB Giovani Bernard Cin
77 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks TE Greg Olsen Car
78 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Darren McFadden Dal
79 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Jeremy Hill Cin
80 Run And Hyde WR John Brown Ari
81 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  WR Larry Fitzgerald Ari
82 Run And Hyde TE Jordan Cameron Mia
83 Geriatric All Stars  WR Steve Smith Sr. Bal
84 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Alfred Blue Hou

Keepers: Jeremy Hill, which almost makes up for the Cam Newton keeper.

Best Pick: Giovani Bernard
Remember going into last year when Giovani Bernard was a second round pick? He was good, and people expected big things. But last year he struggled with injuries and lost his job to Jeremy Hill. That’s not as good, but he’s still a good back, and if he’s healthy, the Bengals are going to find ways to get him involved, especially since he is much more versatile than the one-dimensional Hill (but his one-dimension is very, very good).

Worst Pick: Darren McFadden
In what universe is Darren McFadden a good idea? He is losing the starting battle at running back for the Cowboys to Joseph Randle. Randle is so unimpressive himself that they traded for Christine Michel. So it is going to take Randle getting hurt, Michel not impressing at all, and McFadden actually staying healthy enough to take advantage of Dallas’s offensive line. I don’t believe that we live that universe, so I would not have made that pick.

My Pick: None
I traded my seventh round football pick for Max Scherzer right before he started shitting the bed in every one of his starts. So, hooray me.

Round 8
85 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Duke Johnson Cle
86 Geriatric All Stars  WR Eric Decker NYJ
87 Wegher Bombs WR Kendall Wright Ten
88 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  RB Tre Mason StL
89 Run And Hyde WR DeVante Parker Mia
90 Hot Joel TE Martellus Bennett Chi
91 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Knile Davis KC
92 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Marques Colston NO
93 Graham Cracker WR Devin Funchess Car
94 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Mike Evans TB
95 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  RB David Johnson Ari
96 Wegher Bombs QB Russell Wilson Sea

Keepers: Russell Wilson and Mike Evans

Best Pick: Martellus Bennett
I don’t think it would be crazy to expect Martellus Bennett to take another step forward and be a top three tight end this year. John Fox is a fairly conservative coach which means his offenses have usually maximized the production of the tight end. Of course there was Julius Thomas last year, but Martellus Bennet has the potential to be the next Wesley Walls, and that dude was no joke.

Worst Pick: Knile Davis
He’s a backup, and he’s not all that good. If I was looking for a running back to take a flyer on, there were about ten guys I would have taken before considering Davis.

My Picks: Kendall Wright and Russell Wilson
I am a huge fan of Kendall Wright. Like, I understand Emmanuel Sanders put up big numbers last year, but I think Kendall Wright could have definitely done that in the right offense; he just hasn’t been in the right offense. I think that begins to change this year, as Kendall Wright would have been an ideal target for Marcus Mariota’s skillset at Oregon, and I think those two will have a lot of fun carving up defenses this year. I think he puts up 1000 yards this year.

Russell Wilson was never the quarterback I wanted during the draft last year. I don’t even think I put him on my list of draftable players. But he kept falling and falling. Still, I had no intentions of taking him. Who did I want instead? My plans were Josh Gordon, who got taken two picks before mine, and Kyle Rudolph, who got taken one pick before mine. So I was stuck with Russell Wilson. And now I’m thinking that’s pretty cool. He’s got a brand new tight end, and they actively made their offensive line worse, so there is the likelihood that they will be forced to pass more. Russell Wilson is now my main man.

Round 9
97 Deez Nuts RB Bishop Sankey Ten
98 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  QB Matthew Stafford Det
99 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Eddie Royal Chi
100 Graham Cracker RB Danny Woodhead SD
101 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB DeAngelo Williams Pit
102 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman TE Dwayne Allen Ind
103 Hot Joel RB Devonta Freeman Atl
104 Run And Hyde D/ST Seahawks D/ST Sea
105 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  QB Philip Rivers SD
106 Deez Nuts WR Markus Wheaton Pit
107 Geriatric All Stars  TE Jason Witten Dal
108 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable QB Sam Bradford Phi

Best Pick: Philip Rivers
I don’t really understand what separates Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, and Tony Romo where they are Round 6 guys, and Rivers goes three rounds later. I guess they have elite #1 wide receivers, but San Diego has slowly gotten more and more talent around Rivers, especially with upgrades to the offensive line. He was hot fire at the beginning of last year, and I wouldn’t bet against him doing it for a whole season this year.

Worst Pick: Seahawks D/ST
I’m just not a fan of taking defenses this early. They’ll be good, but predicting the top fantasy defenses is extremely difficult, so I have my doubts of this paying off.

My Picks: Nobody
Although I didn’t pick anyone, this did conclude my trade where I gave up Rob Gronkowski, Amari Cooper, and Markus Wheaton for Le’Veon Bell, Allen Robinson, and Kendall Wright. Honestly, that looks like a fairly even trade. I definitely like my guys more, but I picked my guys, so that gives me a bit of a bias.

Round 10
109 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Terrance West Ten
110 Geriatric All Stars  RB Ronnie Hillman Den
111 Wegher Bombs RB Christine Michael Dal
112 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap  TE Travis Kelce KC
113 Run And Hyde WR Victor Cruz NYG
114 Hot Joel RB Shane Vereen NYG
115 You Just Have To BELLieve! TE Delanie Walker Ten
116 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Denard Robinson Jac
117 Graham Cracker WR Michael Floyd Ari
118 Run And Hyde WR Cody Latimer Den
119 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President  WR Pierre Garcon Wsh
120 Deez Nuts WR Jordan Matthews Phi

Keepers: Travis Kelce and Jordan Matthews

Best Pick: Pierre Garcon
I don’t really like Pierre Garcon, but I have to recognize him as good value at this point in the draft. With everything falling off a cliff for the Redskins last year, he really did not produce, but two years ago, he had a huge impact. He’s probably not great, but if he isn’t, you drop him after a couple weeks, because you know there’s no improvement on the way. Otherwise, you might have yourself a nice flex option as he’s likely to get more balls than DeSean Jackson, but Jackson will get the big yardage.

Worst Pick: Delanie Walker
If you get excited about Delanie Walker, there is something wrong with you. It’s not that I’m against him, but there were tight ends that have much higher upside, while Walker will just get you pedestrian numbers each week. Nothing wrong with that, but not a whole lot right with it either.

My Pick: Christine Michael
I figured that since Dallas doesn’t like their running backs and were willing to trade for a new one; I should probably look into getting that new one, since Dallas’s offensive line is really, really good. This has about an 80% chance of being a totally worthless pick, but if it does hit, it could hit big.

Always Draft A Quarterback

If you do not have a good quarterback, you should always draft a quarterback, and you should try to do it as early in the draft as possible. It is better to draft a bad quarterback than to go with another position, because you need a quarterback. Everybody is terrified of drafting the next Ryan Leaf, but when it comes to building a roster, I would rather have the boom or bust players than wallow away in mediocrity.

You will know that a quarterback is not going to work out within two years. That means you are only ignoring that position for one year.

Think about the Texans. They drafted Jadeveon Clowney, and even had Clowney been what was expected of him, they would have snuck in the playoffs and been ousted in the first round as they simply didn't have the quarterback necessary to be a threat. Now that they are a good, but not great team, it is going to be much more difficult to find their answer at the quarterback position.

Hell, you could even take the Rams. They drafted Aaron Donald who was the best defensive rookie this year, and maybe the best rookie overall (I know Odell Beckham Jr. was a rookie, but Aaron Donald really was that good), but even with their defensive line playing like the best unit in the league down the stretch, what is their ceiling with their current quarterback situation?

Now, obviously the Donald pick worked out, but wouldn't it have helped to take a chance on a guy in round two? Jimmy Garoppolo is the type of high-risk, high-reward player that would have been worth the Rams taking a chance on in the second round? While admitting that I was higher on Garoppolo than most, I still think he would have been fairly rough this year, but that experience could have helped make him the quarterback they needed in 2015 and beyond. If he showed to be truly awful, you can still give him another year to prove himself while taking a chance on a mid-round guy like Shane Carden of East Carolina.

Although I advocate taking a quarterback as early as possible, there are a few exceptions as Russell Wilson fell to the third round, Tony Romo was an undrafted free agent (although the Cowboys went above and beyond with their signing bonus to make sure he went to Dallas), and Tom Brady famously fell to the sixth. Tom Brady is the ultimate outlier, so expecting your team to be that brilliant lucky is delusional. Tony Romo came out in 2003, and the NFL has gotten SOOOOO much better at recognizing talent from smaller schools that he would likely have been at least picked in the top three rounds if he came out today (just look at Jimmy Garoppolo for proof). Wilson is the best example, as he is the most recent, but the Seahawks lucked out that the Eagles didn't trade up to ensure that they were able to draft him, as the Eagles and Russell Wilson were in love with each other going into the draft (Daniel Jeremiah, who was a scout for the Eagles at the time, mentioned that Wilson would text him about how excited he was for the Eagles to draft him so he could bring a Super Bowl title to Philadelphia).

But looking at all the good teams from the last few years, nearly every one of them drafted their starting quarterback.  Nobody is trading away good quarterbacks, so a team has to wait for the perfect storm to hope the team lets a good quarterback walk away in free agency. Those outliers are Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Brees was a late bloomer (so the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers, making Brees obsolete) coming off of a major shoulder surgery. Manning had a serious neck injury where people thought that he would never regain enough arm strength to be effective and that he may just be one weird hit away from retirement. Even with the Broncos signing Manning, they still drafted a quarterback in the second round.

Yes, a team can hope a quarterback falls in their lap in free agency, but hope is not a plan. Scouting a quarterback and finding ways that you can accentuate his positives while minimizing the negatives is a far more likely path to success.

With all that being said, it is much easier to take quarterbacks in the draft in theory than it is to actually go through that plan in practice. General managers can't afford to whiff on a quarterback, because it is such an important decision. No decision will get scrutinized more, and the GM will primarily be judged off that single decision, so if it doesn't work out, he's likely going to lose his job. That is why everybody has to be on board with the plan, so a general manager can take the risks necessary to pursue greatness as opposed to goodness.

Everybody talks about what a bust Ryan Leaf was, but was it really a bust for the Chargers? His incompetence led them to LaDainian Tomlinson and Drew Brees. They took one step back to take one giant leap forward. If that's what a bust looks like, then sign me up.

A New Era of Quarterback Development

One of the hot stories in the NFL has been how well the rookies have performed this year. There was a similar story last year as people were rightfully impressed with what players like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton did last year. There is no denying it; these guys have far exceeded my expectations in their rookie year. 

But I don't think this means that we're in some golden age for quarterbacks. I think that the NFL has just done a much better job with quarterback development. One huge cause is the rise of passing in college football. It was only about 15 years ago when Nebraska was kicking the shit out of people using the option with players like Eric Crouch and Tommie Frazier (Note: If a Nebraska fan is reading this, it was 15 years ago, get over yourselves). College offenses have become much more complicated, and it has no doubt helped quarterback development. 

The other big key has been that offensive coordinators are adjusting their schemes to more closely align with what they were successful with during college. It has created new schemes in the NFL, because the NFL is following college football's lead on innovation. That was definitely not the case until very recently, but college coaches have more freedom to experiment and fail, where NFL coaches have every decision questioned.

But just because these guys are doing so well in their rookie year does not mean that they are going to become superstars. I feel like Andrew Luck is the only guy who I would be shocked if he did not somehow become a superstar quarterback. Everybody else has question marks in my mind. I will openly admit that I have loved Andrew Luck since the beginning of his sophomore year, and I do mean that in a slightly gay way, because watching him pick apart defenses does give me a chub on occasions.

I am not completely sold on RGIII. And the reason has to do with Cam Newton's step back this year. These two are far, far different quarterbacks, but they do both rely on their running abilities to gain yards and open up passing opportunities. RGIII does it with pure speed, and Newton does it with power and a good amount of speed. But the one thing they have in common is that they are in a scheme that is new to most NFL defenses. It is something that they are not running up against with other teams. 

It's a lot like going up against Georgia Tech in college. Their spread option causes opponents a lot of issues, not because of the talent on the field as much as how different it is to face than any other college offense. It takes a while to get used to all of that misdirection, and it can really throw off defenses. But when Iowa played them in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, their offense got overwhelmed as the Hawkeyes had enough time to prepare for their offense and dominated.

Obviously, NFL defenses are not going to have six consecutive bye weeks to prepare for a team, but, for the most part, there are better coaches in the NFL than college. They are going to find things to pick up on and strategies to counteract what is working for the Redskins. I think RGIII is good enough to counter the counter, because his accuracy is far better than Newton's, but I could see there being an issue. It's very likely he becomes a great quarterback, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was more in the top 15 starters than the top 5. 

With Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Brandon Weeden, they have shown flashes of being good quarterbacks (Weeden less than the other two), but they are also quarterbacks who have benefited from their coaches designing offenses to emphasize their strengths. When I type that sentence, it is really amazing that teams were not doing this before, but teams more tried to find quarterbacks who would fit in their system than making a system that fit them. Out of these three guys, I would say that Tannehill has the best shot of being a top 10 quarterback, and I give him a 25% chance of doing that. That sounds bad, but it is really tough to become a top 10 quarterback these days. Outside of Blaine Gabbert, there are not many bad quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, a guy like Joe Flacco goes to the playoffs every year, and you could make the argument that he is not one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league. 

It's too early to get super excited about what is happening with these guys. They are having better rookie years than their predecessors, but they are in a different era than those guys. The second year is the new rookie year, where if guys are succeeding in year two, it is time to be impressed...except for with Andrew Luck, because he's the greatest.

Scouting the 2012 NFL Draft Quarterbacks: The Best Of The Rest

Yesterday, I went over the big dogs who have a shot of going in the first round of the draft. Today, I am going to look at five guys, all from big time schools who are expected to be drafted, just not on day one. Tomorrow, hopefully before the draft, I will have time to rank these quarterbacks, and also throw out some prospects that I really love in this draft who are not getting enough love. But let's get talking about these QBs.

Kirk Cousins

I watched his games against Georgia and Ohio State. 

I have disliked Cousins as a prospect for a while. He never really impressed me, but I wanted to look deep into some games to see if I was right, or if I just had Iowa hate running through my veins.

He is inaccurate with his throws, and in completely unpredictable ways. He’ll underthrow, he’ll overthrow, he’ll throw behind, or too far in front. I do not see how this is not seen as a big deal, because it is a very big deal.

He also likes to throw in coverage.

The arm strength was better than I remembered, as I have no questions on whether he has the arm to be successful at the next level. It might be great arm strength, but his footwork is so inconsistent that fans of the team that drafts Cousins should get used to hearing, “Cousins off his back foot…”

When it is all working, he makes some elite throws. But it is rarely all working.

He was solid in being able to check down to secondary targets.

He gets a ridiculous amount of hype for his poise and intangibles, but I’ll give him his due, on the final drive of regulation against Georgia, he made good decisions, was accurate with the football, and played his best football when it mattered most.

Nick Foles

I watched Foles against Arizona State and Oklahoma State.

Arm strength was just okay; it kind of looks like he pushes the ball on his throws.

Okay accuracy

Athletic, but looks awkward when trying to run. No juke to his game.

Not much zip, but a fairly accurate deep passer.

Underthrows a lot of balls.

Keeps his eyes down field, but I didn’t see much pressure in the games I watched.

Brock Osweiler

I watched his games against USC and Boise State. 

Really struggles with accuracy on crossing patterns.

He puts no loft on throws. There is no touch to his game. This leads to hilarious results on fades.

The good news is that he does have good arm strength.

Solid athlete.

Kellen Moore

I watched his game against Georgia.

As everyone has noted, it is not a strong arm.

With that being said, it’s super accurate.

He does a good job of scanning the field before making his throw.

Very good pocket presence. He’s not an athlete, but he has a great feel for the rush, and knows subtle ways to avoid it.

He throws a good deep ball as long as it’s not down the middle where there can be safety help. If there’s any chance of safety help, it’s not gonna work, because it’s in the air just a little too long.

His ability to find holes in coverage is really impressive. Terrifying, but impressive.

He’s got everything except athleticism, height, and arm strength. The former isn’t that important, the middle is a little more important, but the latter is what he gets killed on. It’s tough to overlook, but I think at worst, he becomes a reliable backup. If he’s your number one guy, it’s tough to say how far he can take you as the offense really needs to rely on his strengths (no pun intended), but man, if he had an arm, he’s a top 10 pick.

Russell Wilson
I was only able to get a good video of his game against Ohio State, but I had also watched him several times during the season.
He has good arm strength.
Good with the play fake.
Their offense included a ton of rollouts, but he was still able to throw from the pocket when the play called for it. 
He does a good job of going through his progressions from high to low.
His ball placement isn't great. When he was missing passes badly, he tended to miss high which is a very dangerous thing to do in the NFL.
He's definitely a good athlete for the position, but his mobility is kind of hit or miss. Not great vision, and sometimes finds himself zig-zagging behind the line of scrimmage without actually improving his ability to run or to make a pass. With that being said, he is very good at throwing on the move as he may be more accurate on the move than he is while standing still.
At the end of the game, they needed 70 yards, he threw it 40. That's not a great sign for his arm, but it could have also just been drawn up that way to draw an interference, so I can't say too much. 


That's it for today. Tomorrow, I'll wrap some things up and get pumped for the NFL Draft. 

Thoughts From Week One Of College Football

Since the first week of college football mostly sucks, and I was excessively drunk from 7:00 PM on Friday night until about noon on Monday morning, I couldn't catch a lot of games. Luckily, I caught Wisconsin-UNLV on Thursday, and yesterday, I rewatched the first half of Iowa-Tennessee Tech, so I can tell you some things about those two Big Ten squads. Since most people don't care about Wisconsin, let's start with what I saw from the Hawkeyes.

Iowa vs. Tennessee Tech
Mika'il McCall – Just a very decisive runner, hit every hole hard with no hesitancy. Unfortunately, when waching this game sober, I was sick to my stomach on every carry, because I knew his ankle was about to be broken.

On the bright side of being sober, I didn't think Coker looked nearly as bad as I did when watching him drunk. He certainly didn't have a good game, but I thought he was dancing like Britney Spears in the backfield when I was watching him intoxicated.

McNutt is a beast, so we've got that going for us. He really attacked the ball with his hands instead of letting it come to him, and that's my favorite thing to see a receiver do.

The defensive line looked better than I expected. I didn't expect much, but I thought they did a good job of staying low and using leverage to collapse the pocket even if they weren't able to get much clean penetration.

I underestimated Vandenberg. He did exactly what a good quarterback should do to a bad team. Bravo, Moxon, bravo.

Wisconsin vs. UNLV
I thought it last year, and I still think James White is a better back than Montee Ball. Ball looks much this year than he did early on last year, but I still prefer White. Credit where credit is due, Ball's first touchdown run had some very impressive footwork.

I don't know how I feel about Borland being moved from outside linebacker to inside. The guy showed a good ability to blitz off the outside, so it'd be a shame if Wisconsin wasted that talent. He even played some defensive end last year on passing downs, and he can cause serious matchup problems for offensive tackles, not only with his speed, but also with his ability to get low making it hard for linemen to get their hands on him.

Russell Wilson just flings the football out there, which is very ugly, but damn, it sure was accurate.

As good as Wisconsin looked on offense, the defense left a lot to be desired. I saw very little push from their front four throughout the game, and every offensive line in the Big Ten (even Indiana's) will be better than UNLV's. Wisconsin will be a good team, but unless this defensive line greatly improves as the season goes on, I have trouble seeing them win the Leaders Division.

And that's all I got for this week. Next week will probably also be focused on Big Ten football, because of my blatant irresponsibility.

-Joe

P.S. Derrick Rose playing with hand puppets, because...why not?