Reviewing My Fantasy Football Draft - Part 3

My latest fantasy football draft happened Monday night. For the uninformed, it is part of a three sport keeper league with baseball and basketball, and you can trade between sports. I am an impatient person, so I am always wheeling and dealing, and that helped lead me to a hilarious end of this draft. Not many people get multiple picks in the last round of the draft, I had four of them, but we'll wait to get to that excitement and also to get to a review to see who my greatest challenger will be.

Round 11
121 Deez Nuts RB Charles Sims TB
122 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President TE Larry Donnell NYG
123 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Brian Quick StL
124 Graham Cracker WR Breshad Perriman Bal
125 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks QB Ryan Tannehill Mia
126 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Roddy White Atl
127 Hot Joel WR Torrey Smith SF
128 Run And Hyde RB Andre Williams NYG
129 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap K Stephen Gostkowski NE
130 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR Brandon Coleman NO
131 Geriatric All Stars WR Anquan Boldin SF
132 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable QB Teddy Bridgewater Min

Keepers: Ryan Tannehill

Best Pick: Teddy Bridgewater
I’m a total fanboy for Teddy, so I could debate whether he or Torrey Smith was the best pick, but the tiebreaker always goes to Teddy. He’s going to be good, really good. I get very angry thinking about how well the Vikings have drafted the last couple years, and Bridgewater is the most important person that they have drafted. He has some more weapons around (including a real life running back), so I think he takes a major step forward this year. I still doubt he is worthy of starting most weeks, but I think he’s a very viable keeper option going into next season.

Worst Pick: Stephen Gostkowski
Dude didn’t even have a defense yet. I usually wait until the last second for both, but if you’re going to reach for one, I’d at least make it a defense.

My Pick: Nobody
I traded this pick in a very confusing situation where I wanted someone to stash Paul George on their roster for me so I could use him as a keeper for the upcoming season. I probably should have tried to pay less for the cost of using an IR spot for most of the year, but if you make a lot of trades, they can’t all be winners.

Round 12
133 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable TE Zach Ertz Phi
134 Geriatric All Stars RB Matt Jones Wsh
135 Wegher Bombs WR Jordy Nelson GB
136 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap TE Tyler Eifert Cin
137 Run And Hyde RB Roy Helu Oak
138 Hot Joel D/ST Bills D/ST Buf
139 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman TE Julius Thomas Jac
140 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks D/ST Rams D/ST StL
141 Graham Cracker TE Antonio Gates SD
142 You Just Have To BELLieve! QB Carson Palmer Ari
143 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President D/ST Texans D/ST Hou
144 Deez Nuts D/ST Dolphins D/ST Mia

Best Pick: Tyler Eifert
I loved Tyler Eifert last year, and if his arm hadn’t snapped like a twig, it would have been a good pick. Of course he starts getting a bunch of hype before the draft this year and somebody decided to take him, which really screwed over my strategy of not taking a tight end until the final round strategy. But we’ll get into that later.

Worst Pick: Antonio Gates
Since suspended players can’t be put away on the IR, he’s just wasting a roster spot for the first few weeks. After that, he was very inconsistent, so do you really want him as a starting tight end in your lineup? Oh yeah, and he’s also one year older, and that athleticism has diminished to the point of mere existence at this point.

My Pick: Jordy Nelson
I’m just going to go out on a limb and say that Jordy Nelson for a tenth rounder next year will probably be a pretty good deal, so I’ve already got one of my keeper spots occupied. This pick made me very happy as people got upset in the draft room, and I even got a text the next morning where someone admitted that they had trouble sleeping because they were so pissed about this pick. That alone made this draft a tremendous success.

Round 13
145 Deez Nuts RB Cameron Artis-Payne Car
146 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Jaelen Strong Hou
147 Geriatric All Stars D/ST Jets D/ST NYJ
148 Graham Cracker WR Michael Crabtree Oak
149 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks TE Richard Rodgers GB
150 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman D/ST Ravens D/ST Bal
151 Hot Joel RB David Cobb Ten
152 Run And Hyde K Adam Vinatieri Ind
153 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap WR Ty Montgomery GB
154 You Just Have To BELLieve! K Justin Tucker Bal
155 Geriatric All Stars WR Dorial Green-Beckham Ten
156 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable D/ST Cardinals D/ST Ari

Best Pick: David Cobb
David Cobb was probably my number one sleeper for this season. Had he not gotten hurt, I was going to pick him in round 8. He was awesome for Minnesota last year, and I have no doubt that he could have beaten out Bishop Sankey for playing time. Unfortunately, he got injured. I knew this would make him slip in the draft and was hoping I could snag him in the 14th. And I would have gotten away with it had it not been for that stupid auto draft, because Joel is such a dummy he couldn’t make a pick in the allotted time, and it auto-selected David Cobb. So he’ll just stash him away on IR, because it doesn’t hurt anything, and he’ll probably get a nice running back for the second half of the season.

Worst Pick: Cameron Artis-Payne
If you’re going to pick a backup running back for the Panthers, you probably should have picked the dude who is the real deal and going to steal the show once Jonathan Stewart inevitably gets injured. Unfortunately for Deez Nuts, that guy was taken later in this draft (Hint: it was by me and may have something to do with my team name).

My Pick: Nobody
I traded this pick so I could finally get rid of Jaime Garcia for Gio Gonzalez. Jaime Garcia has somehow continued to pitch out of his mind and become Cy-me Garcia. Gio has been inconsistent, much like he has been all year. It’s almost like past results indicate something about future performance. But I have faith that Gio will shine when it’s playoff time, at least that’s the hope that I’m holding onto. Long story short: I’m an idiot.

Round 14
157 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable K Steven Hauschka Sea
158 Geriatric All Stars K Cody Parkey Phi
159 Wegher Bombs D/ST Broncos D/ST Den
160 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap WR Stedman Bailey StL
161 You Just Have To BELLieve! TE Owen Daniels Den
162 Hot Joel QB Jay Cutler Chi
163 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman K Dan Bailey Dal
164 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks K Matt Bryant Atl
165 Graham Cracker D/ST Panthers D/ST Car
166 You Just Have To BELLieve! D/ST Eagles D/ST Phi
167 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Rueben Randle NYG
168 Deez Nuts K Dan Carpenter Buf

Best Pick: Jay Cutler
I can’t really commend anybody for taking a defense or kicker, because trying to predict those stats, so that doesn’t leave me a whole lot of options. Although I think Jay Cutler is a garbage quarterback, he is a decent fantasy quarterback, so to snag a decent backup in the 14th round is pretty good value.

Worst Pick: Stedman Bailey
If I was going to take a chance on a former West Virginia wide receiver currently playing for the St. Louis Rams, I probably would have gone with Tavon Austin.

My Pick: Broncos D/ST
I really like the Broncos defense for this year. I think Von Miller takes it to another level this season and is my pick to lead the league in sacks. They also have two really good corners, so the pass defense should be on point. If they can stop the run, they should be a top-5 defense.

Round 15
169 Deez Nuts TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB
170 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President K Mason Crosby GB
171 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Lorenzo Taliaferro Bal
172 Graham Cracker K Chandler Catanzaro Ari
173 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Donte Moncrief Ind
174 Hot Joel WR Terrance Williams Dal
175 Hot Joel K Matt Prater Det
176 Wegher Bombs RB Brandon Wegher Car
177 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap D/ST Packers D/ST GB
178 Wegher Bombs TE Kyle Rudolph Min
179 Wegher Bombs QB Colin Kaepernick SF
180 Wegher Bombs K Josh Scobee Pit

Best Pick: Colin Kaepernick
Yeah, I’m breaking my rules of giving out bests to my own pick, but looking at these selections, it’s pretty clear that Colin Kaepernick stands out above the rest. Snagging him in the final round is pretty nice, as they have some solid weapons on that offense, and with the defense being worse, they will have to score a lot of points to keep them in games. Since I am terrified of the Rams defense, I may even start Kaepernick the start in week one just to let everybody know that they have to earn their starting spot in my fantasy lineup.

Worst Pick: Josh Scobee
And I’m also going to break my rule for giving myself the worst pick. I am writing this on Friday morning, and two things became very clear. I made a smart decision by picking up Pittsburgh’s kicker, because they are going to score some points. Also, I made a very dumb decision by picking up Josh Scobee, because he is awful at kicking the ball. I was so mad after he missed his second field goal that I turned the game off shortly after that to watch Dog with a Blog. I should have just drafted Nate Kaeding.

My (Other) Picks: Brandon Wegher and Kyle Rudolph
WEGHER BOMBS! The only thing that I think I yelled more while watching Iowa games at a bar is “Mox is a fox!” in regards to James Vandenberg. And the only reasons that got yelled more is Brandon Wegher was a phoenix for the Iowa Hawkeyes whose fire burned out after one season of splitting carries. The dude has incredible natural talent, but it’s amazing that he’s actually harnessed everything after basically falling off the face of the Earth for a few years. Most young people do stupid shit. He did, but it seems like he has his shit together now, and good for him. He was very impressive in the preseason (you kind of have to be to make the team as an undrafted free agent), and I know he has the talent to put up numbers when Jonathan Stewart inevitably gets injured.

Kyle Rudolph is a tight end. In fantasy, it is wise to fill all open positions. Kyle Rudolph fills this requirement. Hooray, Kyle.

Predictions
So looking at the best and worsts of how people did in this draft, let's look at who my greatest challenger will be. Also, I gave an extra point for each keeper, as they all seemed to be very good value...oh, except for Cam Newton, who I subtracted a point for, since he was kept in the third round. Ties are broken by general feel. Without further adieu, here are the likely final standings for the 2015 fantasy football season.

1. Wegher Bombs ∞
2. Hot Joel 3-0
3. You Just Have To BELLieve! 3-1
4. Ready, Willing And Tom Cable 2-0
5. Larry Donnell Trump 4 President 2-0
6. Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap 3-2
7. Too Many (Brandin) Cooks 3-2
8. Graham Cracker 2-1
9. Geriatric All Stars 1-0
10. Deez Nuts 1-2
11. Run And Hyde 0-2
12. Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman 1-4 

A New Era of Quarterback Development

One of the hot stories in the NFL has been how well the rookies have performed this year. There was a similar story last year as people were rightfully impressed with what players like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton did last year. There is no denying it; these guys have far exceeded my expectations in their rookie year. 

But I don't think this means that we're in some golden age for quarterbacks. I think that the NFL has just done a much better job with quarterback development. One huge cause is the rise of passing in college football. It was only about 15 years ago when Nebraska was kicking the shit out of people using the option with players like Eric Crouch and Tommie Frazier (Note: If a Nebraska fan is reading this, it was 15 years ago, get over yourselves). College offenses have become much more complicated, and it has no doubt helped quarterback development. 

The other big key has been that offensive coordinators are adjusting their schemes to more closely align with what they were successful with during college. It has created new schemes in the NFL, because the NFL is following college football's lead on innovation. That was definitely not the case until very recently, but college coaches have more freedom to experiment and fail, where NFL coaches have every decision questioned.

But just because these guys are doing so well in their rookie year does not mean that they are going to become superstars. I feel like Andrew Luck is the only guy who I would be shocked if he did not somehow become a superstar quarterback. Everybody else has question marks in my mind. I will openly admit that I have loved Andrew Luck since the beginning of his sophomore year, and I do mean that in a slightly gay way, because watching him pick apart defenses does give me a chub on occasions.

I am not completely sold on RGIII. And the reason has to do with Cam Newton's step back this year. These two are far, far different quarterbacks, but they do both rely on their running abilities to gain yards and open up passing opportunities. RGIII does it with pure speed, and Newton does it with power and a good amount of speed. But the one thing they have in common is that they are in a scheme that is new to most NFL defenses. It is something that they are not running up against with other teams. 

It's a lot like going up against Georgia Tech in college. Their spread option causes opponents a lot of issues, not because of the talent on the field as much as how different it is to face than any other college offense. It takes a while to get used to all of that misdirection, and it can really throw off defenses. But when Iowa played them in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, their offense got overwhelmed as the Hawkeyes had enough time to prepare for their offense and dominated.

Obviously, NFL defenses are not going to have six consecutive bye weeks to prepare for a team, but, for the most part, there are better coaches in the NFL than college. They are going to find things to pick up on and strategies to counteract what is working for the Redskins. I think RGIII is good enough to counter the counter, because his accuracy is far better than Newton's, but I could see there being an issue. It's very likely he becomes a great quarterback, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was more in the top 15 starters than the top 5. 

With Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Brandon Weeden, they have shown flashes of being good quarterbacks (Weeden less than the other two), but they are also quarterbacks who have benefited from their coaches designing offenses to emphasize their strengths. When I type that sentence, it is really amazing that teams were not doing this before, but teams more tried to find quarterbacks who would fit in their system than making a system that fit them. Out of these three guys, I would say that Tannehill has the best shot of being a top 10 quarterback, and I give him a 25% chance of doing that. That sounds bad, but it is really tough to become a top 10 quarterback these days. Outside of Blaine Gabbert, there are not many bad quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, a guy like Joe Flacco goes to the playoffs every year, and you could make the argument that he is not one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league. 

It's too early to get super excited about what is happening with these guys. They are having better rookie years than their predecessors, but they are in a different era than those guys. The second year is the new rookie year, where if guys are succeeding in year two, it is time to be impressed...except for with Andrew Luck, because he's the greatest.

Scouting The 2012 NFL Draft Quartebacks: Possible First Rounders

I love the NFL Draft. As a Bears fan, it is my one moment of hope throughout the year. Yes, some think the Bears could be contenders this year, but Jay Cutler is their quarterback, so they really don't have a chance. Speaking of quarterbacks, I decided to scout some of the bigger names coming out for the draft this season by watching a couple games of tape to give me a better idea of what they do well and what they struggle with. For the most part, these are just my notes while watching these guys play, but it should give you a fairly good overall picture of each prospect.

Andrew Luck 

He’s damn near perfect. I can’t add anything to the conversation. I have raved about him here, here, here, and also at bars across the USA.

RGIII 

So every time I really watched Baylor play, I was more just enjoying the football instead of trying to break down anyone in the game. I thought the RGIII hype had really spun out of control, so I decided to watch some quick videos of his. I watched his performance against TCU as well as Texas.

I was very impressed with his vision. Most of the offense is designed for a quick read and throw which he executes very well. When that first option is not open, he is quick to scan to his next option, often on the opposite side of the field, and quickly fire the ball. He showed a good feel for leading his receivers open.

Um, Good God, he throws a beautiful deep ball. Not only are his throws in stride, but he also does a good job of getting safeties to cheat up by turning his shoulders to an underneath receiver, and then quickly setting up to bomb out the deep ball.

He was rarely pressured. Sometimes, he reacted well by keeping his eyes downfield and continuing to look for open receivers. Other times, it led to some questionable throws. There just wasn’t a whole lot to go off of with pressure, but he handled the limited examples fairly well.

He seemed fast, but not elusive. I don’t see him as the same running threat as Cam Newton, despite his speed advantage.

I did not expect him to be this good. I still favor Luck, but if RGIII had come out any other recent year, he would be the number one pick in the draft. That is not saying that he will be able to perform better than what Cam Newton did in his rookie year, but I had far more questions about Newton than I do with Griffin.

In other news, Kendall Wright is really, really good. He plays fast, does a great job of creating separation, and also is excellent at adjusting to the ball. Whoever drafts him will be a very happy team.

Ryan Tannehill

I watched his games against Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

Tannehill may be more of a running threat than Griffin, because I think his vision in the running game is better.

Good arm and release.

His initial reaction was to bail out, but then he got away from the pressure and looked down the field and fired.

Has a tendency to stare down his receiver just a little too long.

Not impressive deep ball, and some really poor decisions. He just has no feel for it.

Average accuracy overall. I didn’t see him leading receivers open, and he was inconsistent on throws that you would expect a top ten pick to make.

Lots of dumpoff passes where receivers are required to make plays.

I know quarterbacks wins and losses are not a great barometer for success, but they do still interest me. Not to the point of “DUR, this guy’s a proven winner, DUR,” but still interesting. Tannehill has been knocked for not winning big games, and what I saw was him not getting help from receivers down the stretch. I don’t see it as anything to worry about at the next level.

Brandon Weeden

I watched Weeden's games against Iowa State and Stanford.

Very comfortable in the pocket. If he has time, he’s going to use it instead of settling for an underneath pass.

Poor decisions under pressure. Tried to throw over the middle off his back foot which led to very dangerous passes.

Occasionally seemed to not trust his read and it made him wait about a half second to make his throw.

So many short passes in this offense.

I definitely question his arm strength. His ball floats a little bit, and they really utilized very short passes which did not often challenge him. He left some balls up in the air for a while, relying on Blackmon to jump up and get them.

That's all I have for now, but I will be posting something tomorrow on other quarterbacks who are getting a lot of talk leading up to the draft.