Marcus Mariota - 2015 NFL Draft Scouting Report

With the college football season over, the 2015 NFL Draft season immediately starts up to fill that void. I plan to take a look at all of the top quarterback prospects but will also be willing to take suggestions if there are prospects at other positions that you would like to see analyzed. But my bread and butter is quarterback play (a position I still feel is underrated in the draft). Today, I wrap up the series by taking a look at Oregon Ducks Quarterback, Marcus Mariota.

Statistically speaking, you cannot get much better than Mariota. He absolutely dominated during his final college season and led the Oregon Ducks to the National Championship game. Most casual football fans assumed that he would be the first quarterback taken, because Winston threw more interceptions and interceptions are bad. As I'm writing this, Winston has gained the edge, but I'm not really worried about consensus, I'm worried with how these guys produce. Courtesy of Draft Breakdown, I was able to take a look at his 2014 games against Michigan State, Florida State, and Ohio State.

Awareness
The first thing that people seem to bring up with Marcus Mariota is that his offense made him tough to evaluate. Honestly, I don't think scouting an Oregon player is more difficult than scouting an Alabama player. For Oregon, it is scheme that gives them an advantage, but Alabama brings in nothing but the best recruits so it is easier for a player to shine with all of that talent around them. With the efficiency in the design of Oregon's offense, I was worried that Mariota wouldn't have to go through progressions on throws. For the most part, this was true, but he did have plays where it was necessary, and he showed aptitude. This is a good example:

He looks to his left, but then works his eyes back towards the middle where he sees that his receiver has a step on the defender. Even with good coverage, there is not much you can do when a quarterback throws a ball like that.

Pocket Presence
If you give him a comfortable pocket, he can carve up a defense. Once the pressure comes crashing in, he takes a lot of sacks and will too often throw off his back foot. Here is a play where he sees pressure coming but has plenty of space to step up and make a throw.

Unfortunately, he throws off his back foot and misses a wide open receiver. He's going to have to learn to throw in tight pockets, so not being able to step into a throw like that is definitely worrisome.

This is another example of Mariota adjusting his throwing motion when the pocket closes in on him.

He likely has enough room to make that throw, but he hesitates on it, and then short arms the throw.

Still, it's not all bad, as he did show the ability to move well in the pocket on this play.

He starts by looking to his right, adeptly slips a rusher, sees that things are still crowded in front of him, so he looks up, spots an open receiver and makes a touchdown throw.

Wow Plays
Full disclosure: I take notes while I watch the games, and I pressed pause and wrote, "I keep saying that he is very good, but I never get the feeling of greatness." Then I watched the very next play and started laughing at my stupidity.

There is so much that is right with this play. First off, the throw is great, but that pales in comparison as to what he does mentally here. Marshall is his third option on this play, but he is so quick at going through his reads that it doesn't matter. His first option is the tight end, but the linebacker in zone takes away that, so he looks to his left but the receiver on the outside is not open, he works his eyes back to the middle and fires a great pass to his receiver who is streaking open.

The issue that people have with Mariota is the offense. He wasn't asked to do the same things that Winston was required to do. Still, he showed flashes of having any ability that an NFL team is looking for. The biggest question mark I am left with is whether he is willing to trust his arm and pull the trigger by throwing into tight coverage. The physical capabilities are there; it's just a matter of believing he can squeeze the ball into tight windows.

Overall
There is a reason that everybody puts Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston far ahead of all of hte other quarterbacks in this draft. Although I have found myself liking the skills that Brett Hundley brings to the table, he is a step below these two quarterbacks. But this is the (likely) the last guy I will be looking at, so who's #1? Well, it really depends on what you want.

Marcus Mariota gets really bad comparisons. He gets compared to Colin Kaepernick, but he has less arm strength but maintains a tighter delivery, makes more accurate throws, and is far better at reading a field. I have also heard Alex Smith, but I think he is a far more dangerous quarterback in every aspect than Smith. The guy I see is Randall Cunningham. He doesn't quite have the arm, but he makes up for it with his accuracy. Meanwhile, I see Winston as a non-athletic Andrew Luck. They both make stupid throws, but they also do incredible things when it matters, and they are guys who find ways to win.

When it comes down to it, the offense that you want your team to run should be the difference maker between the two prospects. Jameis Winston fits that bill for more teams than Marcus Mariota, but Mariota would be good in a Winston offense, while Winston drops off quite a bit if asked to do what Mariota does. In the end, I have Winston a hair ahead of Mariota, as Winston has consistently displayed the ability to stand tall under pressure and deliver passes while Mariota has only flashed it. Off the field, there are plenty of question marks, but on the field, Jameis is the best talent in this draft.

Quarterback Prospect Rankings:
1. Jameis Winston - Florida State
2. Marcus Mariota - Oregon
3. Brett Hundley - UCLA
4. Shane Carden - East Carolina
5. Bryce Petty - Baylor
6. Sean Mannion - Oregon State
7. Garrett Grayson - Colorado State
8. Blake Sims - Alabama

A New Era of Quarterback Development

One of the hot stories in the NFL has been how well the rookies have performed this year. There was a similar story last year as people were rightfully impressed with what players like Cam Newton and Andy Dalton did last year. There is no denying it; these guys have far exceeded my expectations in their rookie year. 

But I don't think this means that we're in some golden age for quarterbacks. I think that the NFL has just done a much better job with quarterback development. One huge cause is the rise of passing in college football. It was only about 15 years ago when Nebraska was kicking the shit out of people using the option with players like Eric Crouch and Tommie Frazier (Note: If a Nebraska fan is reading this, it was 15 years ago, get over yourselves). College offenses have become much more complicated, and it has no doubt helped quarterback development. 

The other big key has been that offensive coordinators are adjusting their schemes to more closely align with what they were successful with during college. It has created new schemes in the NFL, because the NFL is following college football's lead on innovation. That was definitely not the case until very recently, but college coaches have more freedom to experiment and fail, where NFL coaches have every decision questioned.

But just because these guys are doing so well in their rookie year does not mean that they are going to become superstars. I feel like Andrew Luck is the only guy who I would be shocked if he did not somehow become a superstar quarterback. Everybody else has question marks in my mind. I will openly admit that I have loved Andrew Luck since the beginning of his sophomore year, and I do mean that in a slightly gay way, because watching him pick apart defenses does give me a chub on occasions.

I am not completely sold on RGIII. And the reason has to do with Cam Newton's step back this year. These two are far, far different quarterbacks, but they do both rely on their running abilities to gain yards and open up passing opportunities. RGIII does it with pure speed, and Newton does it with power and a good amount of speed. But the one thing they have in common is that they are in a scheme that is new to most NFL defenses. It is something that they are not running up against with other teams. 

It's a lot like going up against Georgia Tech in college. Their spread option causes opponents a lot of issues, not because of the talent on the field as much as how different it is to face than any other college offense. It takes a while to get used to all of that misdirection, and it can really throw off defenses. But when Iowa played them in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, their offense got overwhelmed as the Hawkeyes had enough time to prepare for their offense and dominated.

Obviously, NFL defenses are not going to have six consecutive bye weeks to prepare for a team, but, for the most part, there are better coaches in the NFL than college. They are going to find things to pick up on and strategies to counteract what is working for the Redskins. I think RGIII is good enough to counter the counter, because his accuracy is far better than Newton's, but I could see there being an issue. It's very likely he becomes a great quarterback, but I wouldn't be shocked if he was more in the top 15 starters than the top 5. 

With Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, and Brandon Weeden, they have shown flashes of being good quarterbacks (Weeden less than the other two), but they are also quarterbacks who have benefited from their coaches designing offenses to emphasize their strengths. When I type that sentence, it is really amazing that teams were not doing this before, but teams more tried to find quarterbacks who would fit in their system than making a system that fit them. Out of these three guys, I would say that Tannehill has the best shot of being a top 10 quarterback, and I give him a 25% chance of doing that. That sounds bad, but it is really tough to become a top 10 quarterback these days. Outside of Blaine Gabbert, there are not many bad quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, a guy like Joe Flacco goes to the playoffs every year, and you could make the argument that he is not one of the top 20 quarterbacks in the league. 

It's too early to get super excited about what is happening with these guys. They are having better rookie years than their predecessors, but they are in a different era than those guys. The second year is the new rookie year, where if guys are succeeding in year two, it is time to be impressed...except for with Andrew Luck, because he's the greatest.

Andrew Luck Is a Better Prospect Than Peyton Manning Was

As Prospects, Andrew Luck Is Better Than Peyton Manning

I know what many of you are thinking right now, “DURR, this is stupid, there is no way you can say that Andrew Luck is better than one of the five best quarterbacks of all time, DURR.” I understand your opinion. To clarify, I am not saying he will be a better quarterback, but that he is a better prospect. If you put these two in the same draft, there is no way that Peyton Manning is selected before Andrew Luck.

There is absolutely nothing that Peyton Manning showed in college that would put him ahead of Andrew Luck. Luck is basically just a more athletic Manning. I am trying to think of all the ways that Manning could be considered better than Luck, and there just isn’t one.

Arm strength is Manning’s best shot, but I’d call it a wash. Neither guy has a rocket, but they both have very good arms, and I do not see a discernible difference between the two.

Reading defenses is not something that I could give either guy an edge, because both do a great job before and during the play.

Having the ability to throw every ball on the route tree is something that both could do.

They both have great footwork.

They were both excellent at playfakes.

And then we look at athleticism, and Luck has a decent advantage. The guy is an all-around athlete, and Manning, although he was much more athletic in college, is not on the same level as Luck. 

On top of that, both had a player come out of nowhere and have a great final year before the draft. Manning was challenged by Ryan Leaf for the number one spot in the draft. Meanwhile, as great was Robert Griffin III was, nobody ever seriously considered taking him over Andrew Luck at the number one spot. I feel like RGIII is at least the prospect that Ryan Leaf was (and in my mind, much better), but Luck was never challenged as the best player in the draft.

Luck is the better prospect. Manning, until his neck injury, reached his full potential. That is incredibly rare. If Luck is able to do the same, he will be even better than Peyton Manning.