Reviewing My Fantasy Football Draft - Part 1

My latest fantasy football draft happened Monday night. For the uninformed, it is part of a three sport league with baseball and basketball, and you can trade between sports. I am an impatient person, so I am always wheeling and dealing, and this draft would be no different, as I moved up from 10 to the top overall pick a half hour before the draft. Was it a good deal? Hell, I didn't know at the time, but it was a deal, and it fed my addiction which is all that matters. But we'll get to the details of that later. Let's break down the first five rounds, because I need to post something before the season actually gets going later tonight.

Round 1
1 Wegher Bombs RB Le'Veon Bell Pit
2 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President RB Adrian Peterson Min
3 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Eddie Lacy GB
4 Graham Cracker RB Jamaal Charles KC
5 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR Antonio Brown Pit
6 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman RB Marshawn Lynch Sea
7 Hot Joel RB Matt Forte Chi
8 Run And Hyde RB C.J. Anderson Den
9 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap RB DeMarco Murray Phi
10 Deez Nuts TE Rob Gronkowski NE
11 Geriatric All Stars WR Dez Bryant Dal
12 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR Demaryius Thomas Den

Best Pick: Dez Bryant
I had Dez as the sixth best guy in the draft. That is partially because I underestimate Marshawn Lynch every year, but I just don’t see much of a chance of Dez not producing as a top-5 receiver this year and he has a very good shot at being at the top of the list. I also really liked the Eddie Lacy pick, as the Packers have a very good offensive line, and Rodgers has less receiving threats with Nelson out for the year. I was slightly worried about his injury history, and that’s what stopped me from going in that direction, but I could easily see him as the top back this year.

Worst Pick: Rob Gronkowski
You really have to nitpick to find faults in first round picks. Rob Gronkowski will be the highest scoring tight end this season, as long as he can stay healthy. That second part is what concerns me, because he has dealt with numerous injuries, some quite serious, so it really makes his health the biggest concern of anyone drafted in the first round.

My Pick: Le’Veon Bell
As I said earlier, I was between Bell and Lacy, but I think the Pittsburgh offensive line has steadily improved where they are not much worse than the Packers (although not having Pouncey early on will not help), and even though he misses two games early, I like his durability and production to be the best fantasy running back during those last 14 weeks of the season.

Round 2
13 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR Julio Jones Atl
14 Geriatric All Stars RB LeSean McCoy Buf
15 Wegher Bombs WR Calvin Johnson Det
16 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG
17 Run And Hyde RB Carlos Hyde SF
18 Hot Joel WR A.J. Green Cin
19 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Randall Cobb GB
20 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks WR T.Y. Hilton Ind
21 Graham Cracker QB Aaron Rodgers GB
22 You Just Have To BELLieve! QB Andrew Luck Ind
23 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President RB Lamar Miller Mia
24 Deez Nuts RB Alfred Morris Wsh

Keepers: Andrew Luck

Best Pick: Lamar Miller
Everybody raves about how great the Chip Kelly offense is for running backs in Philadelphia, but Miami is basically attempting to do the same thing and nobody talks about how great things are for Lamar Miller. Miller goes into the season as the clear lead back in this offense, and when he got carries, he put up impressive numbers. I don’t see why his output wouldn’t increase this year, and there’s a good chance he puts up first round stats for a second round cost.

Worst Pick: T.Y. Hilton
I pretty much liked all of the receivers taken in this round…except for T.Y. Hilton. It is nothing against him as a player, but the Colts have way more weapons this year than they had last season, so the ball is going to be spread around. I just don’t see him quite on the level of the other receivers in this round.

My Pick: Calvin Johnson
Calvin Johnson was hurt for most of the season last year and still put up pretty impressive numbers. He’s a freak of nature, so if he’s fully healthy this season, he should have no issue being a top-5 receiver and making my opponents miserable all year long.

Round 3
25 Deez Nuts RB Melvin Gordon SD
26 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Emmanuel Sanders Den
27 You Just Have To BELLieve! WR Alshon Jeffery Chi
28 Graham Cracker TE Jimmy Graham Sea
29 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks QB Peyton Manning Den
30 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman QB Cam Newton Car
31 Hot Joel RB Justin Forsett Bal
32 Run And Hyde QB Drew Brees NO
33 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap RB Mark Ingram NO
34 Deez Nuts WR Amari Cooper Oak
35 Geriatric All Stars RB Frank Gore Ind
36 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Latavius Murray Oak

Keepers: Cam Newton (Yes, somebody kept Cam Newton for a third round pick. Yes, Cam Newton was projected to be a tenth round pick. Yes, nothing made me smile wider than when I got the email notifying me of the decision, especially since the guy passed up keeping Carlos Hyde for a seventh rounder in order to keep Cam)

Best Pick: Alshon Jeffery
I don’t know why Alshon Jeffery is slipping to 27, but that’s excellent value at that point. Jay Cutler loves number one receivers more than he hates vaccinations. There is no one to threaten his spot at the top, and although he’s been dealing with some minor nagging injuries, it sounds like with the rest he has gotten, he’ll be at full strength going into the regular season.

Worst Pick: Peyton Manning
This is obviously in the non-Cam Newton keeper category. I’m just very down on Manning this year, and not in the fact that I think he’s done, but I just don’t think he’s going to be lighting up scoreboards this year under Gary Kubiak. They are definitely running the ball more, so I see Manning having Tom Brady like numbers. He’ll be a top-10 guy, but there’s a good chance he isn’t in the top-5. There were plenty of quarterbacks that I see producing similar numbers that are going many rounds later in the draft.

My Pick: Nobody
Since I was originally gifted the 10th pick in the draft, I decided to trade up by giving up my first, third, and ninth round pick for the first pick in the draft, along with a sixth and eighth rounder. I feel good about the talent I was able to acquire and am happy that I made the trade.

Round 4
37 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable RB Arian Foster Hou
38 Geriatric All Stars WR Golden Tate Det
39 Wegher Bombs RB Todd Gurley StL
40 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap QB Tom Brady NE
41 Run And Hyde RB T.J. Yeldon Jac
42 Hot Joel WR Keenan Allen SD
43 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Davante Adams GB
44 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Joseph Randle Dal
45 Graham Cracker WR Andre Johnson Ind
46 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Andre Ellington Ari
47 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Julian Edelman NE
48 Deez Nuts RB Jonathan Stewart Car

Best Pick: Arian Foster
If Arian Foster was completely healthy going into this season, he’s a first round pick. His injury is nothing to scoff at, but it looks like he’ll be ready to go by week 2 or 3. Yes, injuries are an extra concern for Foster, but at that point in the draft, there are no sure things, and he was by far the most proven commodity available.

Worst Pick: Tom Brady
As you can probably tell, I was not a big fan of taking quarterbacks early this year. Can you really expect Tom Brady to perform better than Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, or Philip Rivers? Those guys are going 2, 3, and 5 rounds later respectively than Brady. And I think everyone keeps thinking back to the time he had Randy Moss and set the world on fire, but the Patriots do not have that receiving corps anymore. Yes, Gronk is an absolute beast, but as I said earlier, he’s not the healthiest guy in the world. I just see his best case scenario as meeting this draft spot with a good chance that he falls short.

My Pick: Todd Gurley
Holy shit is my team going to suck the first couple weeks. Todd Gurley wasn’t really a guy I was targeting in drafts as he didn’t end up on my other two squads, but that doesn’t mean I don’t love me some Todd Gurley. It’s just that in other drafts, I liked other guys more when I was drafting. Todd Gurley is legit, and he does everything you need a running back to do well. He can catch passes, he can block, and most importantly, he can run like an absolute beast. He looks like Adrian Peterson, and considering how well that guy came back from his knee injury, I think that after the Rams have a bye in week 6, he’s going to turn on the jets and be a fantasy monster. The Rams wouldn’t have used a first round pick on him if they thought anything less.

But yes, I’m really just hoping for a .500 record early in the season considering my issues at running back.

Round 5
49 Deez Nuts WR Brandon Marshall NYJ
50 Larry Donnell Trump 4 President WR Vincent Jackson TB
51 You Just Have To BELLieve! RB Chris Ivory NYJ
52 Graham Cracker RB Joique Bell Det
53 Too Many (Brandin) Cooks RB Doug Martin TB
54 Al Pacino From Scent of a Woman WR Jarvis Landry Mia
55 Hot Joel WR Jeremy Maclin KC
56 Run And Hyde WR Nelson Agholor Phi
57 Steele Jantz’s Jock Strap WR DeSean Jackson Wsh
58 Wegher Bombs WR Sammy Watkins Buf
59 Geriatric All Stars RB Rashad Jennings NYG
60 Ready, Willing And Tom Cable WR DeAndre Hopkins Hou

Keepers: Sammy Watkins and DeAndre Hopkins

Best Pick: Doug Martin
I am easily influenced by seeing people do good things in person, and Doug Martin was off the chain in the Buccaneers second preseason game that I attended. He was finding holes and exploding through them with quickness that he hasn’t had since his rookie year. I think the Muscle Hamster is back, and I am not happy that he is not a part of my team.

Worst Pick: Jarvis Landry
I really like Jarvis Landry, but the Dolphins added a ton of receiving options this offseason, and he’s probably not going to be a prime red zone target with his skills. I think he’s more in the range of possible flex option, first guy off the bench as opposed to the true starting receiver that were drafted in this round. I have a hard time imagining Jarvis Landry putting up bigger numbers than Jeremy Maclin.

My Pick: Sammy Watkins
Sammy Watkins was one of my two keepers for the year, and it was a bit of a borderline call. Hypothetically, he may have been available at this time, and I may have been able to get somebody I liked better. But looking at what was available, there is a good chance he wouldn’t have been there, and I definitely would have taken him had he been there. I think Watkins is getting underrated, partly because of injuries last year, and partly because of the Buffalo quarterback situation. I like Kyle Orton quite a bit, but I don’t think Tyrod Taylor is going to be a tremendous step backwards for this offense, and I could see Sammy Watkins taking a tremendous step forward.

I'll be back with part two as soon as I can. That, as you may have guessed, will be followed by part three.

Scouting the 2014 NFL Draft: Zach Mettenberger

I am getting an earlier start on scouting the 2014 NFL Draft, as I'd like to do more of them, and some quarterbacks seasons are already over, so there is no more tape to study. The first guy that I will take a look at had a disappointing end to his year as he tore his ACL. Zach Mettenberger of LSU took a huge step forward this season. He flashed his talent last year, especially against Alabama, but this year, he consistently put big points on the board for the Tigers. It's a shame that LSU did not have a dominating defense for the first time in a while, and the ACL tear is obviously a pretty big bummer too. I took a look at his performance against Mississippi State as well as his games against UAB and Florida.

So the first thing that stands out is the arm. He has the physical tools to make all the throws at the next level. When he plants his feet and fires, he really drives the ball down field to his receivers. He makes this throw look effortless.

That is a beautiful ball. And here is another example of why scouts will fall in love with him:

He puts the ball right in there down the sideline and drops it into his receiver's hands. You cannot throw a better ball than that.

It is impossible to talk about how good Mettenberger can look without mentioning his receivers. I love how Odell Beckham Jr. snatches the ball out of the air. Attacking the ball is one of the most important features for a wide receiver, and he has shown a great ability to attack the ball with his hands instead of waiting for it to come to him. It's something that attracted me to Alshon Jeffery while in college, because it's a skill that carries over to the pro level when coverages are going to be much tighter. Here is an excellent example of that.

Yeah, that's really fun to watch. Oh, and Jarvis Landry isn't bad either.

Having those two guys will make any quarterback look pretty good. Which brings us to the bad...

A big issue that I have with Mettenberger is his ability to anticipate receivers getting open. Instead of trusting his receivers,, he waits until they are open to throw the ball. By the time the ball gets there, the defenders have closed the distance which makes the catch much more difficult for his receivers.

Beckham is able to make this catch, but if he throws that ball earlier, it is much easier for him. Instead he battles the defender and has to make a very good play on the ball. In college, the difference in talent between his receivers and the defenders they are facing is much larger than it will be at the next level.

His accuracy is not great. He struggles putting touch on the ball. On these two throws, he has open receivers but overthrows both of them.

The screen pass seems worse, because he badly overthrows it and it turns into an interception, but at least he had the excuse of pressure on that throw. With the ball down the sideline to Beckham, it's just poor footwork that causes him to miss his open receiver. He consistently misses on passes where he is forced to put touch on the ball.

When throwing over the middle, it seems like he is always throwing his receivers high. This is a major issue, because throwing low/short leads to incompletions, but throwing high/long leads to interceptions.

This is a pass that lands incomplete, but it is in very dangerous territory as there are plenty of Florida defenders around that football, and he gives his receiver no chance to make a play on the football.

On top of that, he underthrows balls down the field despite having plenty of arm strength. He still managed a 65% completion rate, but he doesn't make it easy on his receivers. He doesn't do a great job of leading them open, and it's much more a testament to the receiving corps' talents that their passing game was so potent this year.

At first glance, Mettenberger seems like a good prospect. He has great arm strength, good size, and enough mobility to survive. His stats look impressive enough that you could convince yourself that this is a guy to build a team around, but the more I watched, the more problems I saw. The biggest issue is the accuracy. This is not something that I would bet on being able to fix. He's been throwing the ball for 15 years, and it's not there yet, so I really don't see it happening at this point. Overall, he has a lot of arm talent, but the accuracy issues are too much for me to be willing to take a chance on him outside of a late-round flier. I fully expect a team to fall in love with the arm strength and take him off the board much earlier than that, but I do not see him as a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL.

Friday Football Thoughts

 

Before we get into the analysis, let's look at an amusing anecdote from former BYU standout and Chicago Bear, Jim McMahon.  When McMahon’s high school teacher told him he would have to study the book of Mormon while at BYU, he replied, “That’s all right. I like fiction.”  Mormonism, you just got owned...30 years ago.

I guess we should start with the guy that everybody is talking about, Auburn Quarterback, Cam Newton.  The first thing that I noticed about Newton is an excellent ability to place his deep ball.  Kellen Moore and him both throw really accurate deep balls, but Newton's arm strength means that his gets there a little quicker which will be very advantageous when safeties are playing deep and trying to come over the top on the deep route.

Newton also has good pocket awareness.  He has a good feel for the rush, and that is the first thing that makes him so elusive for would-be tacklers.  Now, he’s not lightning quick about scanning the field, but with his athleticism, he can create more time for himself, and I do think that this skill will translate to the next level.  It is a little ridiculous watching guys try and tackle him, because they literally just slip right off of him.  If I was Oregon, I'd ask the refs to check his jersey for vaseline.  It's unnatural how easy it is for him to slip tackles.

For my complaints, the first one would be the passes he throws.  He only throws two balls, a deep ball and a dumpoff.  It's effective, but it is something to be concerned about.  I was paying attention to the game to see how well he threw crossing routes, and I don't think he threw one the entire game.  I understand this decision by the coaching staff. It’s much easier to read the sidelines, and he’s been effective doing it. There’s no reason to say that he can’t read zoning linebackers and complete routes over the middle; he just hasn’t done it yet.

With any quarterback not named Andrew Luck, there are going to be question marks about how things will translate to the next level.  Cam Newton has those like everybody else, but there's a lot to work with there, and right now, I'd probably rank him as the second best draft-eligible quarterback ahead of Arkansas's Ryan Mallett.  Also, with the uncertainty of the NFL Labor Agreement, I think Andrew Luck returns to Stanford next year, which gives Newton a great shot at being the first quarterback taken.

I’m not sold on LaMichael James, obviously has great speed and acceleration, but the holes are there for him without him having to create much.  That Oregon offensive line is extremely underrated in my opinion, and as much as the pace of the offense helps, everything starts with that offensive line.  He's ideal for the Oregon offensive attack, because he can get to holes quickly, and they run a lot of stretch and sweep plays to the outside which is a good run for a back like James.  Still, I have trouble imagining him as an impact back at the next level.

I was much more impressed with the running back on the other team in the Oregon-Oregon State game.  Jacquizz Rodgers is a nice back. He's not as fast as James, but he's very quick.  The thing that impressed me the most was his power in the running game.  He does a good job of keeping his legs driving which makes him a lot more effective between the tackles. 

Mikel Leshoure and Mark Ingram are the two best backs in this draft class. Leshoure has great acceleration and really explodes through holes. I hate to break it to Illinois fans, but he’s the reason Scheelhaase has been passable this year at QB. Without defenses having to completely gameplan to stop Leshoure, Illinois offense is really going to struggle.  Right now, I would lean towards putting Leshoure as my top back ahead of Ingram, but that could change with their teams' respective bowl games.

Switching over to wide receivers, let's look at South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery.  He's a big guy who always uses his body really well to screen away the defender. I absolutely love the way that he attacks the ball and plucks it out of the air with his hands.  He does an awesome job of snatching the ball out of the air as opposed to letting it come to him.

Another wide receiver I have watched quite a bit of is Iowa's Derrell Johnson-Koulianos.  I saw him as a fourth or fifth round pick, as I think he has all the qualities to be an excellent slot receiver.  He runs crisp routes and ran a wide variety of those routes in Iowa's pro-style offense.  Getting caught with marijuana in his system, he may have been able to slip by.  Getting caught with cocaine in his system means that he's probably not going to get drafted.  Getting charged with having a drug house means it's going to be tough for him to get a camp invite.  This was shocking news to anyone who followed him at Iowa, but to take the optimistic view on things, I believe he was the first athlete in the history of mankind to admit to everything right away which does show character.  As an Iowa fan, I hope he gets his troubles (both legal and personal) cleared up and some team gives him a second chance, because he does have the skillset necessary to succeed at the next level.

Finally, a question.  What says college football tailgating more than a drunk grandma getting her groove on?  Answer:  Nothing.  (Warning:  This may be the loudest video on YouTube)


-Joe

P.S. If you haven't seen videos from EpicMealTime yet, well, you haven't seen how to properly cook yet. I will marry the first woman who makes me this for breakfast.

I'll then get it annulled, because I'll be drunk off pancakes.