The Bullshit of NFL Draft Scouting

It's NFL Draft season. If you are a fan of a bad team, this may be the best time of the year. As a Bears fan, I understand this better than most. But no matter who you cheer for, it is, without a doubt, the dumbest time of the year. There is so much bullshit being said, very confidently I might add, that some of it may seem believable at first glance. That is why I am here to help you cut through the shit to get to the actual truth.

Experience
This is one that happens again and again when discussing quarterbacks, but I have even heard it with running backs. If somebody doesn't play much in college, they must have not been that good to begin with. At first glance, it makes sense, but if you actually look into the situation, it's pretty clear that there are certain situations where this is patently false. A great example for running backs was Alvin Kamara. Kamara is an incredible talent, but Butch Jones got comfortable with playing top prospect Jalen Hurd who was good but simply never got better as he progressed through college. Hence, it took some time before Kamara got his shot, but when he was on the field, he was incredible, and it doesn't matter that he didn't get a ton of playing time, because it didn't hurt his development, in fact, it really just kept him fresher for the NFL.

My boy, Mitch Trubisky, is a great example at quarterback. Last year, he was ripped into because he had very few starts at quarterback in college, and Bill Parcells came up with a evaluation 30 YEARS AGO that said that you needed lots of starts to be successful. They never came up with any reason that his inexperience affected his play. Well, wait, they came up with one reason, but that was just putting another layer of bullshit on their evaluation.

Clutch/Winning
Clutch and winning seem to go together as areas where you can just throw something out and have it stick without actually watching a single play of football. Great quarterbacks win. If you don't win, you're not a winner, and if you're not a winner you can't be clutch. People looked at some close losses and deemed Mitch Trubisky not clutch. They failed to see how well he actually threw the ball in close games, just that his team didn't win. It was not a clutch problem; it was a North Carolina doesn't have enough talent to beat far superior teams problem. Eight wins isn't going to wow anyone, but after Trubisky left, they dropped to three wins.

This year, people are bringing up the fact that Josh Allen didn't win much in college. And herein lies the problem. Josh Allen didn't win because he isn't an accurate quarterback, but when Josh Allen sucks in the NFL, they will point to an unimpressive win-loss record instead of realizing that he was never good at throwing the football. The former is a symptom, the latter is the disease. Focus on the disease.

Height
Now, don't get me wrong, being tall has advantages over being short. It's easier to see down the field, and you're less likely to have a pass batted down if you have a higher release point. Those are real things. But being short has advantages too. Longer limbs means that it is mechanically more difficult to have clean releases. There is a reason that we don't see any super tall quarterbacks succeed, but nobody has ever claimed that a guy is too tall to play quarterback, because this is the United States so if some of a good thing is good, then a lot of a good thing must be great.

Obviously, this is the one that Baker Mayfield is struggling with. He's only 6'0" so that means he's too short to be a quarterback. Yeah, he's as tall as Drew Brees and taller than Russell Wilson, two guys who have had moderate success (and Super Bowl wins) in the NFL, but Mayfield's too short. And those issues I mentioned for shorter quarterbacks are not things that Mayfield struggled with in college. Will it be tougher in the NFL? Definitely, but that's true of EVERY SINGLE PLAYER EVER. Don't assume issues without any evidence.

Negative Plays
A great running back gains yards. Therefore, a running back who loses yards on a relative high percentage of his carries cannot be a great running back. Even I almost fell for this one as I do think a running back that consistently gets some yards is better than a home run hitter who often gives you negative plays. Luckily the Move The Sticks podcast opened my eyes when it came to Saquon Barkley. I mean, after watching him against Iowa the last couple years, my opinion was never going to tank on the man, but it may have made me a bit more skeptical. The problem with this argument is that Penn State runs a heavy run-pass option offense. If the quarterback is reading the defense correctly, it should be incredibly rare that you would lose yards on the option, so the problem was more that Trace McSorley was trying to force the ball to Barkley instead of taking what the defense gives him. Barkley was stuck trying to make something out of nothing, and yeah, you're going to have some negative plays when that happens. Negative plays are bad, but that's not a real issue. A guy being indecisive in the backfield is an issue, which is something that I do not see in Barkley's game.

Decrease in Production
So a guy has a great sophomore year and his stats drop off as a junior. Wait, let's go with great junior year, could go out for the draft, but loves his college experience, wants to get a degree, and stays for his senior season and his numbers drop off. Let's say, oh, just for a totally hypothetical, that he is a cornerback for a prominent midwestern institution, had eight interceptions, won the Thorpe award for best defensive back, but then fell off to three interceptions during his senior season. Just a random hypothetical. Anyway, his drop in production was more for the fact that nobody threw the ball anywhere near his side of the field which should be more evidence for how great of a player he actually was.

Anyway, Desmond King, I mean, random player from Midwestern school, somehow fell to the fifth round, and then had an incredible rookie season where everybody was shocked that he was such an impact player. Anyway, my anger will never cease that the Bears didn't go for Desmond King before the Chargers selected him, because anyone who watched him instead of just believing a bunch of bullshit, knew that the guy was a football player who was always in the right spot at the right time.

Anyway, that's all the time we have for today. I am sure there are a lot of other bullshit reasons that people use to justify disliking a player, so feel free to send them my way, and I can continue this for a part two.

What the Chicago Bears Should Do on Day 2 of the 2017 NFL Draft

Nobody was talked about more than the Chicago Bears last night as they shocked the world and traded up to take Mitchell Trubisky to fill their quarterback need. I thought they gave up a bit too much draft capital to do it, but they at least did it for the right guy. I LOVE Trubisky, and most of the hate came for two reasons: 1. They never saw him play and just thought he sucked, because they have been told by the media that he isn't worthy of a high first round pick. 2. They are overly concerned that he didn't start enough games in college. The first group are just morons; no need to focus on that. For the latter group, I understand the concern, but I think it says far more about the coaching staff at UNC than it does about Trubisky. I wanted to hate Trubisky, but he's got everything I value in a quarterback prospect. Because of that, it was still a great night for the Bears.

Now, for some quick analysis of what the Bears should do on day two. This is important, because they actually listened to me on my advice for their first pick. 

5. Desmond King - Defensive Back - Iowa
Obligatory Iowa advice. But seriously, King is a football player who makes plays. The Bears need all of the help in the secondary, and King is a guy who could fit in a variety of ways. I still think he's a cornerback, but even if you had to make him a safety, he has the instincts to make big time plays.

4. Kevin King - Cornerback - Washington
Dude is a freak of an athlete. Still could use a whole lot of polish at the cornerback position, but the raw materials are there for him to become a stud.

3. Malik McDowell - Defensive End - Michigan State
The Bears still need a defensive end since they passed on Solomon Thomas to fill their quarterback need. This guy is a polarizing prospect, because his production definitely doesn't match his talent, but many blame that more on the scheme of Michigan State as opposed to anything wrong with McDowell. It's a high ceiling, low floor pick, but the Bears don't seem to be afraid to take chances.

2. Cam Robinson - Offensive Tackle - Alabama
I can't believe a three-year starter at the best program in the nation slipped to the second round, but it would be incredibly difficult for the Bears to pass up on Robinson if he is sitting there when they pick. I think this is a guy who gets picked apart because of too much tape on him, but he has all of the tools to be Pro Bowl offensive tackle.

1. Trade Down
It's the least sexy option, but it may be the best moving forward. If they're not in love with one of the guys at the top of round two, maybe trading down, picking up a third and / or fourth rounder might be the prudent choice. The Bears have a lot of holes on this team, so accumulating talent has to be one of their big goals to come out of this draft. And the best news is that they could probably still draft Desmond King and make my dreams come true.

The 12 Most Interesting Prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is almost upon us. I touched on the top running backs and quarterbacks last week, so this week, I really just want to point out the most interesting prospects in this draft. Maybe I like them, maybe I don't, and maybe I don't know what to think, but no matter which way you slice it, these are the most interesting names that will hear their name called over the next few days.

Jonathan Allen - Defensive Lineman - Alabama
Allen was a monster for Alabama and was seen as a definite top five pick at the end of the season. Then, at the combine, he basically shit the bed. He seemed to lack any sort of explosiveness in his athletic traits. But then you go back to the tape and it sure looked like he was explosive enough. I understand the concerns, but I am always going to side with the tape over the measurements, so although he isn't my favorite defensive lineman, I still think he's worthy of a very high pick.

Derek Barnett - Defensive End - Tennessee
Barnett had a ton of production in college as he broke Reggie White’s Tennessee sack record. Still, people are hedging their bets on him since they don’t see a great enough athlete to translate everything to the next level. I mean, the way people talked about him, I thought he was going to be Bjoern Werner, just plugging along and getting hustle sacks. But that ain’t Barnett. The guy is explosive, and he has a great feel for pass rushing. I consistently saw him explode off the snap and give offensive linemen a hell of a tough time all day long. Does he have the ceiling of a Myles Garrett? Definitely not, but if I had to bet my money on one guy producing multiple double-digit sack seasons, I’d put it on Barnett.

Zane Gonzalez - Kicker - Arizona State
People laughed last year when Roberto Aguayo went in the second round. And then the season started, and they laughed some more, because Aguayo was terrible at the beginning of the year. But Kicker is a lot like Quarterback, where you really want them to ride the pine for a year to learn the intricacies of the sport. Zane Gonzalez should not go in the second round, but he’ll probably go in the third, and you will laugh. Meanwhile, I’ll be laughing at you, as Gonzalez is basically the Peyton Manning of the kicking game. He’s so cerebral that they let him call his own plays. Yes, that only play is him saying, “Imma kick it,” but it works more often than it doesn’t. Could be the highest scoring player in the draft.

Jaleel Johnson - Defensive Tackle - Iowa
Some people love the tape, others hate the testing numbers. The short of it is that he’s been inconsistent where some days you wouldn’t notice him, and on others, he would seem to take the whole world over. The long of it can be found here.

Chad Kelly - Quarterback - Ole Miss
So I wanted to look at one under the radar quarterback who has been getting some buzz. Initially, I looked at Josh Dobbs, but there was nothing there. He's studying to become a rocket scientist, so I think he'll be fine without football. So after studying a rocket scientist, I figured I would go with the opposite and look at Swag Kelly. I think anybody who comments on a guy's character without having any real access to information is an idiot, but yeah, in the public, there have not been many nice things said about him. But dude can throw a football. He's also pretty damn athletic. His pocket awareness is good, and he does a good job of keeping his eyes down the field, although he doesn't scan the field effectively. Still, considering that nobody is talking about him as any more than a late round flyer or free agent acquisition, I think it'd be a good flyer to take late in the draft. Just doing a quick look at the talent, there is enough to be a second day pick, but considering the character concerns, he'd be a steal late in the draft.

Desmond King - Cornerback - Iowa
I love Desmond King, as you can’t teach this guy’s instincts. Although many are convinced he has to move to safety, I think he has the skills to stay at corner, but you can find everything about King here.

George Kittle - Tight End - Iowa
Kittle is going to drive me crazy, as he didn’t produce much in college, and I know exactly why. Because of a dipshit offensive coordinator, Greg Davis, who refused to utilize his tight ends, despite that being, by far, Iowa’s best receiving threats. It has been a sad trend in Iowa football, as Iowa continually sends tight ends to the pros despite unimpressive production in college. But Kittle is maybe the hottest tight end prospect out there right now. He was incredibly impressive at the combine, and his third best athletic comparison from those numbers is a name very familiar to Hawkeye fans, Dallas Clark. That means the only real question is whether he can block, and I think this play answers that question pretty clearly.

They are still trying to dig that NDSU player out of the turf. If Kittle can stay healthy, he is going to make a team very happy.

Marshon Lattimore - Cornerback - Ohio State
What I saw on the field was very good, but he has a history of hamstring injuries that makes me terrified of taking a high pick on him. Hamstring injuries always seem to recur, and the fact that he's had this many injuries while young does not give me a positive outlook for his future.

Haason Reddick - Defensive Player - Temple
This is a guy who has been shooting up draft boards as he tested off the charts at the combine. When I went to watch the tape, I didn't see anything to get excited about. I saw a guy who was weak at the point of attack, and I'm not totally sure where you put him. He's supposed to be an edge rusher with his athleticism, but I think he will get annihilated by linemen there. These super athletes are never my jam, and sometimes I am very wrong on them, but this isn't a chance that I think is worth taking.

Cam Robinson - Offensive Tackle - Alabama
Cam Robinson was a three-year starter at Alabama. That's not easy to do, because, like, there's a lot of talent at Alabama, so to stand out that early and keep that role is pretty impressive. Still, it seems like people aren't talking about him as a first round pick. I don't think he's Orlando Pace, but in a class that is weak with offensive linemen, you could do worse than Cam Robinson.

Ryan Switzer - Wide Receiver - North Carolina
Draft this man. He’s probably going to fall to the middle rounds, but when watching tape of Mitchell Trubisky, I couldn’t help but fall in love with Switzer along the way. The guy is an ideal wide receiver for the slot, as he has a combination of speed, quickness, and route running that makes him nearly impossible to cover. If you’re looking for a downside, he has alligator arms. Like, they might literally be alligator arms, as his arm length is only 28 inches, which ranks in the zero percentile of all wide receivers, and I’m pretty sure it’s the shortest arms for any prospect ever. Don’t care, Switzer is the shit...zer.

Solomon Thomas - Defensive Lineman - Stanford
Solomon Thomas is everything you want in a defensive lineman. There is no reason for him to drop out of the top five. Honestly, I could make a pretty compelling case about what I've seen on the field to take him ahead of Myles Garrett. I mean, just look at this play where North Carolina is trying to tie the game on a two-point conversion with 25 seconds left.

Enough said.

2017 NFL Draft Breakdown: Iowa Hawkeyes Cornerback Desmond King

Desmond King is one of my favorite Iowa players ever. He started as a true Freshman and played pretty damn well. From there, he got better and better. Then he had every reason to leave after his Junior year as he won the Thorpe Award for best cornerback in the nation and had nothing left to prove. Still, he came back and basically shut down half the field for most of the season. Quarterbacks just refused to throw that way, so even though his stats were down, his play was just as good. Still, being a great college player does not make one a great pro, so I took a look at his games against Nebraska and Purdue from 2016 and Wisconsin and Indiana from 2015 (since people actually threw in his direction that year).

Something that stands out in King's play is his physicality. He isn't someone who can get physical; he's someone who looks to get physical. You see this a lot on how he tackles guys as he's looking to either make a big hit or go for a strip. Also, he plays through the whistle...and sometimes needs the benefit of a really long whistle.

Iowa's defense relies on their cornerbacks being able to make tackles in the open field and King always did a good job of containing the edge and finishing plays.

Where his physicality is more important is in his coverage, as he can make up for not having top end speed by physically punishing opposing receivers. What also helps is he is incredibly quick. Adding that to his decisiveness, and it's no wonder he's able to stick to receiver like glue (If you're looking for King on these plays, he's basically always the cornerback on the left side of the offense).

Indiana ran this play earlier in the game while Iowa was in a zone and it went for 20 yards. Here, King sees the quick break, avoids the pick (watch the receiver in the slot flail at King), and the Indiana quarterback has no choice but to throw the ball away.

The big concern is his lack of top end speed which means that many teams view him more as a safety prospect than a cornerback. As much as I love King, I do think it's still a question mark. He handled all varieties of B1G receivers, but how many of those guys were really top end talents? Also, the ones that were future NFL players likely didn't have a NFL level quarterback throwing them the ball to take advantage of any of King's weaknesses.

King would occasionally get beat deep by receivers. The problem with this is whose responsibility that was in Iowa's coverage. Iowa's safeties were not the most dependable players these last few years, so it was unclear whether there should have been a safety over the top or whether King just got beat. He also would often give too much of a cushion and allow 8-yard comeback routes without having any chance to break up the play. Again, that could be the Iowa defensive play call to drift back in the zone and allow the underneath route, or it could be King playing it safe with his lack of top-end speed.

His speed is definitely a concern, but this guy is a football player, and I would like to at least see him get the chance to stay at corner at the next level.

The biggest positives for King's ability to stay at cornerback are his intelligence and instincts.

Here, he follows the deep post over the middle until he sees the slot receiver going for a wheel route. He then spins around to break on the ball, make the interception while managing to still get a foot in bounds.

Another reason that I think King can stay at corner despite not having top end speed is the quickness and athleticism he has shown as a kick returner.

This sort of body control is impressive, and it is far more important than speed when trying to mirror receiver's actions.

And finally, he does things like this.

His ability to mirror receivers and basically run their route for them while undercutting any pass is really a treat to watch.

Right when the receiver breaks towards the outside, King turns back to look for the ball to make a play. King is a very smart player and knows the situation where that is the end of the route and he has a safety over the top so he can look to make a play on the ball if the quarterback decides to throw it. A pushoff from the receiver isn't enough to stop King from making the interception.

The biggest debate for King is whether he is a corner or a safety at the next level. It's a fair question, especially considering that nearly every recent Iowa cornerback has transitioned to safety when going to the NFL. I do think King has enough other skills to stay at corner despite the lack of straight line speed, but ultimately, I don't think it really matters. King's best trait is that he's a football player. He's a guy who consistently makes plays and those instincts will transition to any level. 

The Iowa Football Seniors I Will Miss The Most

Iowa ended its season on a three game winning streak, highlighted by a last second win over Michigan and destroying Nebraska football to end the year. Yep, that's how they ended. No bowl game this year; that definitely didn't happen 20 minutes from my house. Anyway, these last four years have had some really fun Iowa players, so now is the time to look back on these guys' contributions to see who Iowa football fans will miss the most in 2017.

14. Steve Ferentz - Center
If his name wasn't Ferentz, would you have any idea he was on the team? No offense to him. He stuck it out, kept plugging along while getting an education. Also, somebody has to be last, and I figure he'll have the easiest time bouncing back from coming in last place on this list. Sorry, Steve.

12 (tie). Mitch Keppy and Ryan Ward - Offensive Linemen
I remember being excited when Iowa signed these guys. I do not remember a moment of them on the field, so it was impossible to separate them. At least they didn't come in last.

11. Anthony Gair - Safety
Before this year, I would have had no thoughts on Gair. He was just a guy that hung around the program and played on special teams. Then, halfway through the year, he was forced to play some when Miles Taylor got injured, and he actually played pretty well. Did he benefit from some overthrown deep passes? Sure, but that may have been because opposing quarterbacks were sGAIRed.

10. Ron Coluzzi - Punter
I know he only played one year, and he was just a solid punter, but that performance against Michigan was something that will stick with me for a long time. The man did a fake punt where he stumbled, flipped, and managed to get an unnecessary roughness penalty, and although that moment is more memorable, the more impressive feat was getting back-to-back running into the kicker penalties. If there is such a thing as a Punter Party, that story will make him the life of the party.

9. Faith Ekakite - Defensive Tackle
Ekakite never had a huge impact, but he got better and better and made some plays in his senior year. Also, let us not forget that he was nearly murdered for playing Pokemon Go, and I feel like that's one of those stories that will stick with me for years to come.

8. Riley McCarron - Wide Receiver
McCarron is a victim of the Peter Principle. He simply got promoted higher than his skill level really allowed. McCarron was a fine third receiver, but he was not a number one, and trying to fit him into that role after Matt VandeBerg got injured early in the season basically led to disaster for the receiving corps. Had he stayed a third receiver, I would have had nothing but positive thoughts about him. Instead, I kept hearing announcers say how reliable (aka white) he was as a pass catcher, despite dropping a ton of balls. But let's not forget that punt return touchdown against Illinois, or the huge touchdown against Nebraska. Those are some pretty nice highlights for a third receiver.

7. Cole Croston - Offensive Tackle
At a school known for producing offensive linemen, it's really tough to stand out. Croston doesn't measure up with some of the elite names, but he served a purpose. When the offensive line was supposed to be garbage, he helped them reach respectability, and they even won a vague offensive line award this year. I'm a sucker for offensive line play, so I won't be forgetting about you, Cole.

6. Greg Mabin - Cornerback
Greg Mabin was such a tease. He showed a tremendous amount of potential when he got thrusted into the cornerback role as a sophomore across from Desmond King. But that's all it was, potential. He seemed to be the same guy he was during his senior year as he was when he started. He was a solid, unspectacular cornerback. I think people will remember him as somewhat disappointing, but he had some highlight hits and interceptions while starting for three years. That's a pretty solid Hawkeye career.

5. George Kittle - Tight End
It is impossible for me to think about George Kittle without considering how awesome he would have been in a Ken O'Keefe offense. He may have won the Mackey Award if O'Keefe was in charge of the offense. Instead, it was a Greg Davis offense, so his impact was mitigated. Kittle had all of the tools except an offensive coordinator that knew how to utilize him. He'll probably be a late-round draft pick, and he'll end up becoming a starter and people will wonder why their team didn't get a solid tight end like Kittle. I'm a very big George Kittle fan.

4. LeShun Daniels Jr. - Running Back

Daniels was never the fan favorite running back. His freshman year, it was Mark Weisman (I have a Weisman for Heisman shirt; I should be embarrassed by this), sophomore and junior year, it was Jordan Canzeri, and senior year, it was Akrum Wadley. Daniels just went out and produced more and more each year. I know he didn't have the flash plays, but having a bruiser to wear defenses out does matter, and Daniels mattered. He was the first back to eclipse 1,000 yards since Marcus Coker. He's not an all-time great, but he was a damn good back.

3. Jaleel Johnson - Defensive Tackle
First off, how much fun is it to sing, "I'm sorry Miss Jackson, but I am JALEEL?" It's super fun, but Jaleel Johnson was also a monster at times. His safety against Michigan is what finally gave Iowa some momentum in that game. But there hasn't been a defensive lineman that had big plays like Jaleel since Adrian Clayborn. It seemed at times that if Jaleel Johnson decided that he was going to tear apart the opposing offense, he was able to go out there and tear apart that offense no matter what they tried to do to stop him. Iowa's defense relies so much on the defensive line play that Jaleel may be the player that is most missed next season.

2. C.J. Beathard - Quarterback
I understand that Beathard didn't end his career on the highest note, but let's not forget how fun he was at quarterback. Greg Davis made sure that his stats would not be impressive, but watching Beathard was impressive. And his pass to Tevaun Smith in last year's B1G title game may have been the greatest single moment in Iowa history. Rob Houghtlin's kick was in the middle of the season, and Holloway's catch was in a rather meaningless game, but Beathard's pass to Tevaun meant Iowa was going to be undefeated and head to the National Title. Obviously, things didn't work out in that game, but that single moment was huge. And Beathard was huge for the program. He was our Sunshine, and then he went white-trash corporate with his look when he took over the starting job. He was off to a really good start when VandeBerg was healthy, but then had no options, especially with Kittle being hurt. He was not put in a position to succeed, and he put up 20 wins in his two years as a starter. CJB, you will be missed...

1. Desmond King - Cornerback
...but not as much as this guy. Like there was ever any doubt who was going to be number one. Desmond King was so stupid awesome for Iowa. He came in as a true freshman starter and was pretty damn good. He then got better and better. People will nitpick his senior year because he gave up a few big plays, but that was only because he was so bored with nobody throwing his way that he had to try to take some risks to get involved in the action. We all know that the best part about King was the fact that he was a total ballhawk, but don't forget how good of a tackler he was. Oh yeah, and he was also an awesome return guy. He was just such a football player in every way. It made no sense for him to come back this season, but getting four years of watching him play football was an amazing experience. I'm going to tell my kids about watching Desmond King play college football. That's how good he was.

Talking to Yourself about Iowa

Iowa is 12-0 and going to the B1G Championship with a shot to go the College Football Playoff. I know this sentence is 100% true, and yet, I still can't totally fathom it. I mean, I'm flying up to Indy to go to the game (scalpers willing) this weekend, and it still hasn't totally sunk in. I've watched every minute of every game, and it still doesn't feel totally right that Iowa is here. This season is too good, and my brain can't fully comprehend what is happening.

It's not that I've been influenced by the pundits either. I barely watch ESPN, so I really only hear about most of it secondhand. I remember hearing a throwaway joke on the Solid Verbal about talking to your kids about Iowa, laughed, moved on, and then watched it take off a become a thing. That's still funny to me, and shockingly fitting, because I can't totally explain Iowa to a child; I can't even fully explain Iowa to myself.

Don't get me wrong. This is fun. This is really, really, fun.

Think about this season for Iowa, and try to name players who performed below expectations. The only ones are, through no fault of their own, Drew Ott and Jake Duzey. Ott played with a robo arm for a few weeks and was still causing havoc before having season ending knee surgery. Duzey got hurt before the season, and because the other two tight ends were playing great, hasn't really had a chance to put himself back in the rotation.

Who has even only played to expectations? I guess I'd go with Tevaun Smith, who has been a weapon in the passing game but has not set the world on fire. Greg Mabin, who continues to show flashes of greatness but still hasn't quite gotten the consistency that would make him an absolute monster as a corner. That's basically it. Those guys just did as good as we expected them to.

Everyone else has exceeded expectations, and there are some guys who exceeded past my wildest fantasies. The one that stands out is Desmond King, who I was excited about when Iowa got him right before National Signing Day. He just sounded like a guy who just made plays, and wouldn't you know it? Making plays in football is a pretty damn valuable skill. Still, this is beyond even my wildest expectations. He probably deserves the Thorpe Award, as he has legitimately been the best corner in the league. It's been incredible.

Probably the most surprising success story is the entire offensive line. Sure, Austin Blythe was good, but he's become dominant, and everyone has far exceeded my expectations. I thought it would be their achilles heel on the way to a 4-8 season, and instead, they have become a huge strength in keeping the quarterback upright while opening up huge holes for a bevvy of running backs.

And speaking of running backs, holy shit, how did Mark Weisman start for this team? Nothing against Weisman, who always worked hard and did his best, but Jordan Canzeri is the truth, Wadley has moves on moves, Derrick Mitchell is somehow just a great pass blocker for third down situations, and when LeShun Daniels is on, he's the most unstoppable runner of the bunch. The running backs have taken a huge step forward, and it's been fun to watch.

But don't think I forgot about defenders outside of King Crunk, as it has been a great year for guys with double J initials. Jaleel Johnson has emerged as a monster in the middle of the line, destroying run games and collapsing pockets on the quarterback, he has helped make everyone else's job easier. Right behind him is Josey Jewell who has gone from looking lost last year to having nearly flawless instincts as he flies around and tackles everything in sight. With Jeff Jarrett starting Global Force Wrestling, it has been a great year for Double Js.

Somehow even crazier, I have talked about a ton of important factors about Iowa, and I haven't even mentioned that Kirk Ferentz has altered his offensive playbook, and all CJ Beathard does is win. There's simply too much wild shit happening this year to get to everything.

And here's the thing with not wrapping my head around this team. As the season has gone on, a part of me has hoped for a single loss and a Rose Bowl berth, because how cool would the Rose Bowl be (although a loss likely knocks them out of that at this point)? And that was seriously as high as my brain can dream up. Like, all they do is win, so who's to say they couldn't win the damn College Football Playoff? It's unlikely, but this season took nearly everything going right in the first place, why should that stop now? I don't know if my heart could take it.

Nearly everything has gone right this year, and I'm a very logical person, so I always assume if something seems too good to be true, it usually is. This season definitely seems too good to be true, so it almost doesn't feel real. The question I keep asking is when is that other shoe going to drop? I don't know, and I'm going to do my best to turn my brain off to not care either. I'm going to the B1G Championship next week, and who knows where I could be headed next to support the Hawkeyes?

This season has already been an incredible triumph, but it's not over yet, so it's time to say fuck logic and just enjoy the ride.

Go Hawks!

2015 Iowa Hawkeyes: What Do We Really Know?

After four weeks, Iowa is undefeated at 4-0. This is the most excited the fan base has been since Ricky Stanzi was professing his love for America. It feels like a really great time to be a Hawkeye. Still, even though 4-0 is ideal, I'm not totally sure what we really know about this Iowa team. Let's break it down and find out.

How good is CJ Beathard?
Everybody knows that without a quarterback, your team can only go so far. Beathard is definitely off to a better start than the former starter who's slinging the ball up in Ann Arbor (although Rudock has made this the first year that I can actually cheer for Michigan). But despite Beathard having big arm strength, he hasn't really been throwing too many deep balls. Where his arm strength has proven most valuable is on the quick passes out to the sideline as the ball gets there quicker and he gives his receivers time to make plays. Beathard has also been impressive with his legs, most notably against Iowa State, as he will take advantage of open space to make a play with his feet. I'm still left with the feeling that this offense hasn't changed as much as Hawkeye fans would like. I miss the deep post that was a simple concept brought on by a successful run game and play action that led to big plays half a dozen times a year. I think Beathard is good, but I would like to see him attack the middle of the field and air it out a little more before I can throw my full support behind Iowa being a legit contender to win the B1G West.

Answer: Better than Jake Rudock, not as good as Andrew Luck.

Does Iowa know how to utilize its skill players?
For running backs, the answer seems to be yes. Jordan Canzeri has become Iowa's version of Danny Woodhead. It's always ideal to use him as a change of pace guy, but if you need him to pound it between the tackles, he'll probably shock you with his success there too. He had four touchdowns this weekend, so that's pretty neat. LeShun Daniels has struggled with injuries early on, but having a back that you can pound between the tackles is going to be a necessity when playing against the B1G schedule.

As for the receiving options, Matt VandeBerg has seemed to find himself a nice niche in the system, but I don't think he is the biggest threat out of Iowa's receving corps. Tevaun Smith is averaging only three receptions a game, yet is still nearly the leader in yards for the team. Getting him more involved would be ideal, as he is the type of receiver where if you get the ball close, he has the ability to go up and make a play. Iowa is still waiting for Jake Duzey to come back from injury, but the tight ends still seem slightly underutilized since Iowa is still rarely using the middle of the field.

Answer: They are doing a great job of utilizing the running backs, but get the ball to Tevaun Smith more.

How good are Iowa's offensive tackles?
These guys may not be great, but they are the biggest surprise of the year for me. They have greatly exceeded my modest expectations. I really thought it would be a bloodbath, but so far, they have shown they will not hold the team back. This is the first time they've really gotten a chance to play, so by the end of the season, their could be massive improvement. I don't think either one is going to be Bob Gallery within a season, but with how well the interior line has played, they don't have to.

Answer: Serviceable, and that's a really great surprise.

How dope is the defensive line?
They're stopping the run, collapsing the pocket, and making plays.

Answer: Pretty dope.

Does Desmond King get crunk on the field?
I miss the early days of social media, as Iowa players could do and say whatever they wanted, because Kirk had no idea what social media was. I don't really remember anything awful, but I do remember something awfully hilarious, and that came from the criminally underrated, Jovon Johnson. He started a fan group on Facebook called, "Jovon Johnson 'lockdown 26' Fan Club." The description gave you a glimpse into how awesome Jovon was off the field, as he stated, "If you love to see me gettin crunk on the field..returning punts...returning and picking off interceptions...making big hits..doing what I do best then join the club cause I love it too!!"

A buddy of mine and I bring this up every year, hoping that we have a new player that will get crunk on the field. Finally, after a decade of waiting, we have that man in Desmond King. He makes big hits, he picks off and returns interceptions, he returns punts, and when you combine all of those aspects together, you can only come to one conclusion: Desmond King gets crunk ON THE FIELD.

Answer: An emphatic YES!

How do you feel about the linebackers, the other three defensive backs, and special teams?
Marshall Koehn hit a 57-yard field goal to win a game, and they have punted well too, so good to go there. The other defensive backs aren't as good as Desmond King, but even though guys can find open spaces, they aren't getting beat by big plays like they have the last few years. The linebackers have made some alterations to help them in coverage, and the quicker, smaller linebackers are a better fit to go up against spread offenses. They're not Greenway and Hodge, but they ain't too shabby either.

Answer: Pretty good.

Has Kirk Ferentz actually changed?
The answer to this one is shocking, because the answer is yes. I'll admit that it sounded terrible when Kirk said that they probably needed to watch more tape in the offseason, but football coaches aren't always the smoothest talkers, and he meant it more in the way of altering the way of doing things than not properly preparing for opponents. The shield punt is the most noticeable change, but there have been some subtle changes to the run game, which is something that I never thought Kirk would change. Kirk is a very logical thinker, and when you're logical, you understand that staying the course is almost always the best option. It took a lot of bad outings before Kirk realized that staying the course would not deliver the results it has in the past. They went to the drawing board and have given new things a try. Good for them.

Answer: It may be shocking, but yes, Kirk Ferentz has changed.

Is this Iowa team actually good?
Aw, shoot; I was hoping you weren't going to ask this one. They're not great; I can tell you that much, but the B1G West is not great, so they don't really have to be. The only team that is probably better than them throughout the rest of their schedule is next week at Wisconsin, but even Wisconsin isn't great. The Hawkeyes have a small margin for error, so they likely won't go undefeated, but there is no team that should blow them out. I'll pick them to lose to Wisconsin, but just one other time outside of that to end up 10-2.

Answer: Good enough for the B1G West, which, luckily, is the division they are in.

Overreacting to Iowa's Win Over Illinois State

I'm not gonna lie, I was super low on Iowa coming into the season. I felt like the question marks that Iowa had were huge concerns that seemed to be downplayed. The offensive tackles were reportedly the hottest, stinkiest garbage that has ever been allowed to play college football. The guards weren't all that fantastic last year, so Iowa likely had their worst offensive line since Kirk Ferentz's first season. On top of that, they needed to replace both defensive tackles, and it's not like they were overflowing with amazing talent at linebacker. I liked the secondary, I liked Tevaun Smith, I was excited for CJ Beathard, and I figured the running backs couldn't be any worse.

So when Iowa took on last year's National Championship Runner-Up (don't worry about what level), Illinois State, I was shocked by how good Iowa looked. They ended up winning the game 31-14, but had Iowa kept in the starters, they probably would have scored once or twice more, and there's a good chance that Illinois State wouldn't have scored at all. It was an impressive performance all-around.

So of course I have done a 180 and am now all-in on Iowa this year. Is this irrational? Of course it is, but I can totally justify it. The tackles, whch were my biggest concern had no issues with Illiniois State's pass rush. Some of those guys were big recruits before transferring out to a smaller school? Does that mean they likely weren't all that good? Yes, but they at east have impressive physical attributes, and Iowa's tackles withstood that, which is more than I expected. I honestly expected a bloodbath in every game, but I am happy to say that I was very wrong.

The offense truly shocked me with how good they looked. Beathard definitely didn't disappoint as he made smart decisions and carved up a defense that was overmatched. The running backs were the true shining stars as LeShun Daniels tore it up on the ground, and Jordan Canzeri tore it up as a receiver. The offensive line took care of business in the running and passing games, which means the only mild concern so far is that the tight ends were a total non-factor, but that's being pretty nitpicky about things.

And defensively, the defensive line shined the brightest as Drew Ott was a monster and Jaleel Johnson showed that he is more than ready to make an impact as a starter. The secondary played very well, as Greg Mabin was making plays in both the running and passing games, while Desmond King is one of the best corners in the conference. And Josey Jewell led a solid effort from the linebackers as he was able to diagnose plays and attack the runners. Illinois State has some legitimate threats on offense, and Iowa absolutely overwhelmed them on that side of the ball.

And it's not like Iowa's schedule is all that difficult. To demonstrate how soft it is, let's just do a quick power rankings of Iowa's opponents from how they looked in week one.

1. Northwestern
2. Illinois
3. Maryland
4. Iowa State
5. Minnesota
6. Pitt
7. Indiana
8. Nebraska
9. Wisconsin
10. Texas State
11. Purdue

Yeah, that is seriously their schedule. I mean, judging by how these teams looked in week one, this might be the easiest schedule in the nation. I'm not sure what is most laughable about this, Northwestern at 1, Illinois at 2, or Iowa State at 4, but that's a pretty accurate portrayal of how these teams performed in their first game. It's not like Iowa couldn't beat any of these teams.

Every year, I go into the Iowa football season with way too much optimism, always seeing how things could break right. I inevitably end up disappointed. But this year, I was skeptical going into the year, so maybe this is the year that they shock me and the rest of the world and actually put together a great season.

Either that, or I just waited one week to get my hopes way too high only to see Iowa shit the bed against Iowa State. 

8 Thoughts on Iowa vs. Michigan

Thoughts going into this game: Mostly fear. I can't believe Iowa is 6.5 point favorites. Of course, I have been much higher on Michigan this entire year. Even when they were struggling with Akron and UConn, I still felt they would pull through. I still think Devin Gardner has some great tools to be successful, but that Michigan offense has not been able to put it together.

1. Obviously, the first Rudock interception was bad. Michigan had a perfect call for that play, but had they had a different call, Hamilton was running open for what probably would have been close to a first down. But yeah, that Favrean interception was not fun.

That second interception from Rudock actually looked worse than the first when I watched it live as it looked like he threw it to three Michigan defenders. It was obviously bad, but it is a mistake that a lot of quarterbacks make. He expected Countess to hang with Hamilton, but since he drifted back, he was right in the passing lane for Rudock. It's bad, but it's also a mistake that he can learn from.

The third interception was another play where he thought he could get the ball off, but he got hit just a split second too early. I thought it was going to get overturned, but I don't see this as a big worry going forward.

Outside of that, I really liked some of his decisions. He was willing to wait in the pocket to attack downfield which is not something I had seen enough of early on in the season. It really paid off as he threw some deep (by Iowa standards) balls down the sideline. He also made some quick throws where he made the proper pre-snap reads. You can tell he's getting more comfortable as a quarterback. Before, it was clear that when he had a thought of running, he made the decision to run. On that first touchdown, he ran hard to the outside, but turned his body and delivered a nice ball to Fiedorowicz. Early in the season, he runs that ball, and I think he may have gotten a first, but highly doubt he would have made it into the end zone.

2. I'm falling in love with Jordan Canzeri. He has shown an excellent ability to find the best running lane and just squirt through holes to turn no gains into 3-4 yards.

3. That being said, it's also still fun to see Mark Weisman rumbling down the field. He is basically Mike Alstott in that he is a downhill runner who will always fall forward and offer very little else.

4. That Iowa defense was swarming to the ball. The thing that really helped was Iowa trusting their secondary to make plays. This allowed them to blitz which caused happy feet from Gardner and a lack of space for their running game. Gardner was able to get away a few times and do some damage, but overall, I thought they played very well.

5. Desmond King is definitely my favorite Hawkeye. He sticks to receivers on intermediate routes. He is not the most athletic guy, so he can get beat deep, but his aggressiveness is really paying off. He may not be betting interceptions, but he is breaking passes up and helping to get the defense off the field. The way he was able to hang with Jeremy Gallon was very impressive.

6. Devin Gardner has some talented players around him, but he just can't get the job done. The offensive line is below average in pass protection (worse in run blocking), but I don't think they are awful in handling a regular four-man rush. Fitzgerald Toussaint is a very poor running back. He has all the physical tools, but he is incredibly indecisive in every decision he makes. I like Gallon as a receiver as he knows how to get open. He's not a top prospect, but he's a guy to use a late round pick on and use as a third or fourth receiver to have a reliable option for the quarterback.

7. That final offensive play before Iowa downed the ball was a thing of beauty. Iowa went out and won the game instead of trying to avoid losing. Running on the first two downs was smart, but they had the option of burning 40 seconds of clock or not giving Michigan any chance of winning the game. They chose the latter and it paid off. I was one of the biggest Greg Davis haters last year, and I can fully recognize that he is a good offensive coordinator for Iowa. Kirk puts the shackles on any offensive coordinator, but he has learned to complement the running system with some option-based passing plays. I'd still like to see more passing down the field, but they did go down the sidelines 15-20 yards today, so it was a positive step forward.

8. The Iowa offensive line is fun to watch. That is the number one reason that Iowa is better this year than last year, and I feel like they do not get nearly enough love. One huge reason is that Scherff is a monster. There are so many plays you could point to of him dominating the defense to spring a big play. On the first play of the final Iowa possession, Scherff made it to the second level and sealed off the outside linebacker. Since he's such a huge human being, he also stopped the middle linebacker from being anywhere near Weisman as the running back had an easy 22 yards. An underrated aspect of Iowa's offensive line is that everyone is good. There is no weak link. No team can depend on getting consistent pressure from a basic four-man rush, and they have opened up holes for a variety of running backs all year long. Yes, the stretch left is always going to be the number one play, but the fact that teams can't overload that side in fear of getting destroyed going to the right is crucial to Iowa's success on the ground. Only nerds watch offensive line play, but it is still pretty damn fun to watch Iowa plow forward. 

7 Thoughts on Iowa vs. Wisconsin

Spoiler alert: Iowa lost to Wisconsin. Just like always, they hung around for three quarters before clearly not having enough in the tank to compete in the fourth. Even though there were a lot of negatives, there were still some positives mixed in there.

1. The biggest thing that stood out from the first quarter was Kirk Ferentz's decisions on fourth down. He went for one but punted on two occasions where they definitely should have gone for it. It's frustrating, but it's Iowa, and it's always been Iowa. He has shown more willingness to go for it as time has gone on, but it's still frustrating how often he punts, especially, because Iowa's plodding offense puts them in 4th and 4 or less more than most teams.

2. Iowa trusted their secondary a lot more than they have in past games. This is an area where I wish I had the All-22 tape, because everything with receiving and secondary work is near impossible to judge from what you see on television. I haven't watched enough of Wisconsin to know how their passing game operates, but Iowa felt comfortable trusting their secondary and sending blitzes, and it really paid off. 

3. With that being said, Stave is not a real dangerous quarterback, and the Hawkeyes were also able to do that due to the great job they did on first and second downs by stopping the run and forcing them into 3rd and long situations.

4. Wisconsin's first touchdown was on Tanner Miller. It looked like Cover-3 (Corners take deep outside thirds, with a safety taking the deep middle third of the field), and Desmond King plays the outside third, so his job is to filter him to the middle and let his safety take care of things. Miller got fooled by Stave's eyes and committed to one side of the field, Stave looked back and put a nice throw out to Pederson for the touchdown. 

5. Impressive thing about CJ Beathard is that he has excellent pocket presence. He can wait until the very last second to throw the ball. Bad things about CJ Beathard is he throws the ball too low which caused some issues. The bigger problem that I see is that he seemed to stare down his receivers before throwing the ball. Some deceptive eye movement could treat him very well down the line.

6. The big run by James White near the end was caused by John Lowdermilk just being late to close up that hole. That's the problem with Iowa's roster, they have to be perfect on technique, because they are not the most athletic guys in the world. 

7. It's the same old story with Iowa. Although I feel the offense is leaps and bounds better than last year. There is still the gigantic issue of them not involving their most talented group of players which is tight end. Why not just keep three tight ends, put them in a trips formation and mess people's worlds up. Not only would it be a dominant run formation, but you can vary their routes enough to confuse coverage and get the ball out to your best receivers. 

Iowa needs to understand that they can recruit/develop tight ends. The only great athletes that they get are going to come from the island of misfit toys. Damond Powell is a great athlete, but they got him from a JUCO, and he can apparently only run two routes. They're not getting game breaking tight ends, so Greg Davis needs to adjust his scheme to fit his personnel, because the personnel is clearly not going to fit his scheme.

11 Thoughts on Iowa vs. Northwestern

1. I'm going into this game with high hopes, and if there is one thing Northwestern is known for, it is destroying Iowa's hopes with stupid luck and chicanery.

2. I love when Iowa plays at a fast pace, because it is unlike anything any other team does. They don't spread teams out; they keep things even tighter and just pound the ball to help set up their play action. It is aesthetically pleasing for somebody who loves watching a good run game.

3. Rudock is very good at running the sneak. If they don't stack the middle, he shoots in right behind his center. If they do stack the middle, he just takes his time and goes behind his guard or tackle depending on where he can find some space. A guy like Cam Newton will always be great at sneaks with his athleticism and leg power, but being patient works for less athletic quarterbacks. Tom Brady is an excellent example of this, but I promise this will be the only Brady/Rudock comparison I make today.

4. Iowa used James Morris as a spy this week, which is a way better use of a fourth rusher considering the lack of rush they have been able to generate with their defensive line. Learning lessons from last week is a very positive step forward. It also doesn't hurt that he made a great play on a delayed rush with a sack on Colter.

5. Northwestern showed that although Iowa can handle power running, speed running with misdirection can pick up yardage, especially if the quarterback is a key part of the running game.

6. It is very tough for me to be critical of Iowa's strategies, because it's never poor; it's just often not good enough. That is why it seems as though any time an offense gets a penalty, they can never recover to get that first down. Teams can get ten yards on Iowa, but they'd shut teams down if they changed the rules to go 12 yards.

7. Meyer missed the kick against Northwestern, because these things always happen against Northwestern. He never had a chance.

8. I am glad that even Kirk pointed out that Rudock made the right call on his interception at the end of the game. Trying to thread the needle there is well worth the risk, as an interception did not put Iowa in any danger, and if he is able to complete it, they are set up to try a field goal as time expires in regulation. It's a situation where stats can be deceiving.

9. The touchdown pass to Fiedorowicz was a well designed play. In man coverage, you know the man in coverage has to protect on inside breaking routes, so all he had to do was loft it out there  and count on his tight end having a step on his man.

10. Desmond King makes plays. I am super excited about his future, as he may be the first cornerback since Jovon Johnson who will get crunk on the field.

11. 5-3 is very solid. This team plays everybody tough, and nobody is claiming that Ferentz should be fired. It's a good time to be a Hawkeye.

8 Hawkeyes Football Thoughts For Week 2

1. I'm a terrible football fan. I love it, so, so much, but sometimes my priorities get messed up, and I don't watch nearly as much as I should. Opening weekend, I missed my beloved Hawkeyes because of my bachelor party in Austin, Texas. The only bars that had the game were somehow unable to be competent enough to serve us beers, so we had to make due and watch normal football games.

This week, I had to do some wedding planning stuff in the morning, and then brought my fiancee some lunch. No big deal as I was smart enough to DVR the game. I left the TV on for the dog and carefully changed the channel without looking at the score. I then went to my DVR menu, and although it said that the game was recording on my cable box, it was nowhere to be found on the menu. Perfect. So, all I saw was the last minute of the first half, but I did get to see the second half.

2. Iowa got stopped at the 1.5 yard line after the crowd begged the coaching staff to go for it. They then started booing when they were stopped. THAT'S NOT HOW THIS WORKS. If they do what you want and don't succeed, you shrug your shoulders. And don't give me any crap that you had a better play selected. Yes, maybe a pass would have worked, but if they would have thrown an incomplete, you would've been pissed that they didn't pound Weisman into the end zone.

3. I'm an old school football fan. When I play video games, I basically play like the Iowa Hawkeyes. I try to pound the ball with my running game and only pass when I have to. On defense, I run basic zone coverages with four man rushes. I do use 3 man fronts a little bit more, so I can surprise the offense with where I'm sending that fourth guy. This is a long way of saying that I loved the second drive where they just ran the ball down Missouri State's throat until they got in the end zone.

4. Greg Davis's offense is growing on me, as he starts to grow into it. The thing about his offense is not that he needs fast receivers, he needs quick receivers. Finding quick receivers is much easier than fast receivers, and those quick screens are really just designed to get 5-7 yards, which is definitely possible with some guys with a little bit of elusiveness.

5. I saw limited runs from Daniels. I like his vision as he seems to make good decisions and efficient cuts. I would say he finishes a little high at the end of his runs, but I really like what I see.

6. I also just like the different looks that they get from their four running backs. I would not feel bad about any four of them being the primary ball carrier, although I think Weisman is best suited for this offense. Also, Iowa was basically unstoppable running to the left. That side of the line was just clearing guys out.

7. So the back to back plays where Missouri State scored, I really do not have an issue with either one. The first one, a true Freshman, Desmond King, was trying to make a play. He bit on the pump fake, and they made him pay. That's obviously not good, but it's tough to get real upset about it.

The second one was kind of a fluke. Did Rudock get tricked? Yes, but it was mostly caused because the linebacker slipped right as the play started. When Rudock looked over and saw that, it should be pitch and catch at that point, but the guy recovered, dropped into coverage and made a play. This Iowa offense is built around quick reads, so plays like that are going to happen.

8. The Hawkeyes won. It wasn't pretty, but if Iowa can run effectively, continue to stop the run, and tighten up things in the secondary, they could actually be pretty decent. And by pretty decent, I mean 12-1 before facing Alabama in the National Title game.