Showing posts with label Jose Fernandez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jose Fernandez. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Jose Fernandez Was Special

I'm obviously a little late on this, but I wanted to say something about Jose Fernandez. His death was the first shocking death I've experienced in a long time. Luckily, I haven't had any real world deaths in quite a while, and most celebrity deaths don't phase me in any way. David Bowie, Prince, Robin Williams, Arnold Palmer all passed away, but I never felt any connection with any of them, and the first three lived hard lives, while the last one lived a pretty long one. I understood people being sad about it, but I had no reason to be affected.

Jose Fernandez was different, not only his death, but also in his life. He was transcendent. If you were trying to convince somebody to be a baseball fan, you'd want Jose Fernandez to be the starting pitcher. Sure, Clayton Kershaw was a better pitcher, but Fernandez was just special. If you saw him pitch, you would immediately know he was one of the five best pitchers in baseball. The talent was undeniable.

On top of that, he broke the unwritten rules of baseball and actually showed that he was having fun while playing the game. He actually showed that he enjoyed playing, and the only person he really pissed off doign this was Brian McCann, who seems like the guy who would go to a 2-year-old's birthday party and throw the cake in the trash, because they already celebrated one birthday, so now they're being a showboat.

Jose Fernandez was special. He was probably the most fun pitcher to watch since Randy Johnson, and his energy and exuberance may have even pushed him ahead of the Big Unit. It's easy to slip into thoughts of, "What could have been," but I'd rather just enjoy what I actually got to see. What I saw was awesome, and although I'm going to miss it, it's still really cool that I got to see it at all.

Jose Fernandez was special.

Monday, April 4, 2016

The Best and Worst of My 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft - Part 1

Hey everybody, baseball is here. Last week, I had my fantasy baseball draft, and it sure was a doozy. Unfortunately, this past weekend was also WrestleMania, so I didn't have time to write about it before the season started. Still, people need to know whether their draft was good, bad, or ugly, so I'll be focusing on the best picks, the worst picks, and my pick in each round. It's super simple this year, just a straight 5X5 head-to-head 10 team league with 29 rounds. Who did the best? Me, probably. Who did the worst? I don't know, but let's check it out.

ROUND 1
1 Mike Trout, LAA OF Joc Jams Volume 1
2 Bryce Harper, Wsh OF Team Asaysian
3 Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B The Nasty Boys
4 Josh Donaldson, Tor 3B Team GreinkMyCrank
5 Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
6 Jose Altuve, Hou 2B Regular Ass Joel
7 Manny Machado, Bal 3B   Team Pedigree
8 Carlos Correa, Hou SS Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
9 Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OF Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
10 Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF Total Jocs

Best Pick: Andrew McCutchen
It's very difficult to pick a best and worst pick in the first round. Basically, everybody ends up with one of the ten best players in the draft. Still, getting McCutchen at ten seems kind of crazy.

Worst Pick: Giancarlo Stanton
I love Stanton, but with his injury history, I really wouldn't be able to take him with McCutchen still available.

My Pick: Manny Machado
This pick came down to Machado or Correa. Living in Florida allows me the luxury of attending Spring Training games. This spring, I managed to make it out to seven games. I got to see Correa play twice and Machado play once. Correa really never did anything of note in the games that I watched. Meanwhile, Machado hit a home run right after I left my seats behind home plate to go into the left field bleachers. That was a really boss maneuver on his part, and it was then that I decided that I was likely going to draft Machado. This is very stupid logic, as I am not only going off of an incredibly small sample size, it's an incredibly small sample size in games that don't matter. I have no regrets.

ROUND 2
11 David Price, Bos SP Total Jocs
12 Kris Bryant, ChC 3B Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
13 Nolan Arenado, Col 3B Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
14 Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B   Team Pedigree
15 Jose Bautista, Tor OF Regular Ass Joel
16 Jose Abreu, CWS 1B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
17 Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B Team GreinkMyCrank
18 Miguel Cabrera, Det 1B The Nasty Boys
19 Mookie Betts, Bos OF Team Asaysian
20 Dee Gordon, Mia 2B Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Nolan Arenado
Having Arenado fall to 13 and ending up with Correa and him is a pretty sweet way to start the draft. There are really no sings that Arenado is not the real deal, so having him slip to there is a nice way to build the left side of an infield.

Worst Pick: David Price
I just don't see why it was necessary to jump on a pitcher like David Price that early. He's going to a division with a lot of good hitting teams, and he also isn't going to be a friendly ballpark. Now, I still think that he will be good, but I don't really see him being any better than any of the top ten pitchers selected, so there was time to get a pitcher of this level.

My Pick: Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo isn't a really exciting pick, but he was really good last year, and I don't really see any reason he won't be really good again this year. He quietly almost stole 20 bases last year, so he's quietly a five category guy, and that's pretty nice to have at first base. That's why I favored him over the first basemen that were selected later in the round.

ROUND 3
21 Todd Frazier, CWS 3B Joc Jams Volume 1
22 Robinson Cano, Sea 2B Team Asaysian
23 A.J. Pollock, Ari OF The Nasty Boys
24 J.D. Martinez, Det OF Team GreinkMyCrank
25 Chris Davis, Bal 1B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
26 Max Scherzer, Wsh SP Regular Ass Joel
27 Carlos Gomez, Hou OF   Team Pedigree
28 Miguel Sano, Min DH Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
29 Joey Votto, Cin 1B Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
30 Buster Posey, SF C Total Jocs

Best Pick: Max Scherzer
Scherzer has been pretty incredible the last couple years, and it seems pretty likely he'll be a top-5 pitcher again this year with the upside of being the most valuable fantasy pitcher overall. That's a pretty good get for the middle of the third round.

Worst Pick: Robinson Cano
Cano took a step back last year, he's in a pitcher's park, and he's on the wrong side of 30. I don't really see any reason he is going to bounce back to his previous levels. I think he'll still be a fine second baseman, but I see the upside as a top-50 player. Getting that at 22 is not exactly inspiring.

My Pick: Carlos Gomez
Can someone say panic pick? I can, because that's what I did here. Looking back, I think I would have preferred Buster Posey here, but I was pretty dead set on getting a scrap heap catcher late in the draft. The good news is that Carlos Gomez may bounce back and make me look like a genius for this pick. The bad news is that last year may have signaled a decline in his skill-set, and I'm going to be cursing him the entire year, so...hooray?

ROUND 4
31 Troy Tulowitzki, Tor SS Total Jocs
32 George Springer, Hou OF Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
33 Starling Marte, Pit OF Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
34 Madison Bumgarner, SF SP   Team Pedigree
35 Chris Sale, CWS SP Regular Ass Joel
36 Charlie Blackmon, Col OF Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
37 Matt Carpenter, StL 3B Team GreinkMyCrank
38 Jake Arrieta, ChC SP The Nasty Boys
39 Jacob deGrom, NYM SP Team Asaysian
40 Gerrit Cole, Pit SP Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: George Springer
I'll admit, I kind of overlooked Posey in Round 3, but I was really bouncing between Gomez and Springer. I went with Gomez, because I was really worried about Springer's strikeout rate in the minor leagues and thought his batting average would take a dip and wasn't sure what that would cause. Still, none of that may happen, and he may take another step forward. Honestly, I think Springer has a better than 50% chance of outperforming Gomez, but Gomez still has higher upside.

Worst Pick: Troy Tulowitzki
Don't get me wrong; I love Troy Tulowitzki. I will probably never stop loving Tulowitzki, but he's getting older, he never stays healthy, and even though Toronto is a hitter's park, it ain't Coors Field. It's not that I dislike the idea of having Troy Tulowitzki in fantasy this year, but I don't like him that early.

My Pick: Madison Bumgarner
Since all the top hitters that I wanted had already been acquired, it was time to lock up a pitcher, as that was where the value was. I was between Bumgarner, Sale, and Arrieta, and I took the safest choice. Sale has that delivery that everyone says will make him break, but it won't happen until I draft him. Arrieta had a HUGE increase in innings last year, and although he looks solid, I was a little too concerned about that. And then there is the safe and reliable Bumgarner, who will inevitably be the one who gets injured this year. But the pick made sense for me at that time.

ROUND 5
41 Nelson Cruz, Sea OF Joc Jams Volume 1
42 Xander Bogaerts, Bos SS Team Asaysian
43 Corey Kluber, Cle SP The Nasty Boys
44 Yoenis Cespedes, NYM OF Team GreinkMyCrank
45 Kyle Seager, Sea 3B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
46 Matt Harvey, NYM SP Regular Ass Joel
47 Jose Fernandez, Mia SP   Team Pedigree
48 Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
49 Dallas Keuchel, Hou SP Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
50 Albert Pujols, LAA 1B Total Jocs

Best Pick: Corey Kluber
I think Kluber is a pretty safe bet to perform as a Top-10 pitcher this year, as he's been pretty amazing hte last two years, it's just that he had bad luck last year. With the Indians improving defense, I think his luck is about to change, and he's a fairly safe bet to be a top-10 pitcher this season.

Worst Pick: Albert Pujols
Pujols had a bounce back year last year, but that was basically the best case scenario, which made him the 74th most valuable player last season. Getting him at 50 doesn't exactly scream great value to me, especially since he's likely to be worse this year.

My Pick: Jose Fernandez
Was this a reach? Quite possibly, but I love me some Jose Fernandez. He was the 10th pitcher taken in this draft, but let's think about how talented this dude is. How many pitchers would you want over him if you had to win one game? Definitely Kershaw, probably Scherzer, and then? There is some debate, but I wouldn't want to bet against Jose Fernandez. He was great last year when quickly coming back from injury. Now that he's had a whole offseason to prepare, he is going to be must see TV.

ROUND 6
51 Justin Upton, Det OF Total Jocs
52 Kyle Schwarber, ChC OF Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
53 Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
54 Jason Heyward, ChC OF   Team Pedigree
55 David Ortiz, Bos DH Regular Ass Joel
56 Lorenzo Cain, KC OF Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
57 Zack Greinke, Ari SP Team GreinkMyCrank
58 Chris Archer, TB SP The Nasty Boys
59 Adam Jones, Bal OF Team Asaysian
60 Brian Dozier, Min 2B Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Stephen Strasburg
I can't stop believing in Strasburg. He seemed to put things back together towards the end of last season, so maybe he breaks out to show the promise he had when he was first called up. Pitchers are fickle beasts, but I would have been happy to bet on Strasburg had he fallen one more spot in the draft.

Worst Pick: David Ortiz
I think every year I figure that David Ortiz is going to be a crappy pick and every year he ends up still being really good at hitting baseballs. But even with the good hitting of baseballs, he probably can't be expected to really exceed this draft position, and he could be much worse. At least this is the last year he can make me look stupid, but maybe he'll make me look smart on his way out.

My Pick: Jason Heyward
Remember when Jason Heyward hit 27 home runs in a season? Well, I'm betting that there is even more power to tap into since he was so young when he did it. So you're saying he hit less home runs than that last year, and in fact hit less than 27 home runs over the last two years? Well, that means he's just saving up on that power. He's even started pulling more balls during Spring Training. THAT MEANS SOMETHING. Anyway, he was about the 50th most valuable guy last year, and I don't really see any reason for regression with a little bit of power upside.

ROUND 7
61 Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF Joc Jams Volume 1
62 Noah Syndergaard, NYM SP Team Asaysian
63 Ian Kinsler, Det 2B The Nasty Boys
64 Carlos Carrasco, Cle SP Team GreinkMyCrank
65 Eric Hosmer, KC 1B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
66 Kenley Jansen, LAD RP Regular Ass Joel
67 Corey Seager, LAD SS   Team Pedigree
68 Rougned Odor, Tex 2B Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
69 Francisco Lindor, Cle SS Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
70 Sonny Gray, Oak SP Total Jocs

Best Pick: Noah Syndergaard
This was a tough round to pick a best pick, as it is filled with guys that I don't totally believe in. I could poke holes in every single one of these picks, quite easily, but for best, it came down to Thor and Carrasco. I give the edge to Syndergaard, because he's young, throws a million miles per hour and may be improving. Carrasco took a big step forward last year, but expecting another step forward as opposed to a small step back is a dangerous game, so I'll go with Syndergaard.

Worst Pick: Francisco Lindor
I'll go with Lindor as I see his performance last year as an absolute best case scenario. He was a good hitter in the minor leagues, but he didn't set the world on fire. I could see him hitting .265 with about eight home runs and 30 stolen bases. That's a fine performance from a shortstop, but it's really not that different than Jean Segura, and nobody saw Segura as a 7th round pick.

My Pick: Corey Seager
Top prospects have seemed to acclimate themselves quicker at the big league level recently, and man am I hoping that is the case with Seager. The thing that most appealed to me about Seager is that his older brother, Kyle, admitted that Corey is the more talented baseball player. That means I got the more talented brother 22 picks after the less talented brother was taken. That's a steal. Also, I would way rather bet on Seager than Lindor, so hopefully that bet pays off for me this year.

ROUND 8
71 Johnny Cueto, SF SP Total Jocs
72 Ryan Braun, Mil OF Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
73 Felix Hernandez, Sea SP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
74 Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B   Team Pedigree
75 Prince Fielder, Tex DH Regular Ass Joel
76 Yasiel Puig, LAD OF Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
77 David Peralta, Ari OF Team GreinkMyCrank
78 Jon Lester, ChC SP The Nasty Boys
79 Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B Team Asaysian
80 Ben Revere, Wsh OF Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Felix Hernandez
The King is still great and getting a pitcher of that caliber in the eighth round is a really nice get. Johnny Cueto has huge questions about him, and although Jon Lester is good, has there ever been a point where you would have rather had Lester than Felix? I don't think so.

Worst Pick: Adrian Beltre
This is just a simple, "He ain't no spring chicken" argument. Adrian Beltre ain't no spring chicken. His power dropped off last year, and he's a good baseball player but probably not a great fantasy player. And at that age, he's probably going to spend some time on the disabled list. There were third basemen that I would rather have at this point in the draft.

My Pick: Freddie Freeman
Not gonna lie, this was my favorite pick in the first ten rounds of mine. Freeman falling to 74 is ridiculous, and I was ridiculously happy to snatch him up at that point. He had a down year last year, but he's still super young, so I not only see a bounceback, I could see him putting up the best stats of his career.

ROUND 9
81 Hunter Pence, SF OF Joc Jams Volume 1
82 Marcus Stroman, Tor SP Team Asaysian
83 Jacoby Ellsbury, NYY OF The Nasty Boys
84 Danny Salazar, Cle SP Team GreinkMyCrank
85 Jason Kipnis, Cle 2B Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
86 Wade Davis, KC RP Regular Ass Joel
87 Christian Yelich, Mia OF   Team Pedigree
88 Hanley Ramirez, Bos OF Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
89 Adam Wainwright, StL SP Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
90 Daniel Murphy, Wsh 2B Total Jocs

Best Pick: Marcus Stroman
This was a heartbreaking round for me, as I really like Salazar and Stroman is one of my favorite players in the game. As a short dude, I love short dudes. HDMH, Height Don't Measure Heart, and Stroman is pretty great. He was actually more lucky than good last year, but I think he gets back to his pre-injury form and raises his strikeouts and shows that he's a stud pitcher.

Worst Pick: Jason Kipnis
This hurts me. It hurts me deeply. I am one who, like Disturbed, is down the with Kipnis. Last year was a bounceback year for Kipnis. The only problem was that it still wasn't all that good. He didn't show the power he once had, and he wasn't a threat on the bases like he used to be. He was hitting again, but without great power or speed, he's a nice player, but that's it. I really hope he proves me wrong, but I think there were plenty of second basemen to take later in this draft.

My Pick: Christian Yelich
I got Christian Yelich on the cheap last year, and through the first half of the year, I kind of understood how I was able to acquire him so cheaply. He was not very good at baseball stuff. But then the second half happened, and he caught fire and started firing off line drives all over the place and even hitting some home runs. I don't think he's going to be a power threat, but I do think there is more juice in his bat than he's shown, and I also think he could up his stolen bases. He's going to have a high average at the top of a lineup, so he could be a top-50 player if he stays healthy this year.

ROUND 10
91 Trevor Rosenthal, StL RP Total Jocs
92 Matt Kemp, SD OF Team VottoEroticAsphyxiation
93 Garrett Richards, LAA SP Back 2 Take Yo Lunch $$
94 Tyson Ross, SD SP   Team Pedigree
95 Craig Kimbrel, Bos RP Regular Ass Joel
96 Carlos Martinez, StL SP Blackmon Have McHugh Gardner Wongs
97 Byung Ho Park, Min 1B Team GreinkMyCrank
98 Billy Hamilton, Cin OF The Nasty Boys
99 Cole Hamels, Tex SP Team Asaysian
100 Brandon Belt, SF 1B Joc Jams Volume 1

Best Pick: Garrett Richards
Richards was coming off of an injury last year, and he was still effective. Still, the year before, he was a boss, and I think that giving him more time to recover will lead him to becoming a great pitcher again.

Worst Pick: Billy Hamilton
Billy Hamilton can win you steals by himself. That's valuable, but there is an issue. He can't hit. Because he can't hit, there's a good chance he gets put on the bench. He may still steal 60 bases while only starting 100 games, but do you really want to put a pinch runner consistently in the lineup, hoping that he's going to get the chance to steal a base and possibly score a single run. That seems like a lot of sacrifice for minimal payoff.

My Pick: Tyson Ross
This came down to Ross or Martinez, so I asked my wife if I should take Martinez, since she knew him from his time in Low-A. She questioned the Martinez pick because of his shoulder issues, so I went with Tyson Ross. I like that pick more and more as I tried hard to acquire him last year, and him being the Opening Day Starter for the Padres seems like a pretty good sign of his success this season. And if he sucks, I can blame it on my wife.

That wraps up part one. Part two should drop later this week. That's when I show my savvy and really start to dominate this draft.

Monday, October 5, 2015

I Fully Blame Jonathan Papelbon for My Fantasy Baseball Loss

Jonathan Papelbon is such a piece of shit. When he went after Bryce Harper, he didn't just go after his Washington Nationals teammate, he went after his Team Pedigree teammate, and that is a bond that should never be forgotten. These guys have been playing well all year long, but Papelbon just didn't know his place. Even though Papelbon has been a good closer, Harper has been a transcendent star, joining with Mike Trout and Manny Machado to form the best trifecta in the entire league.

And yet, despite all that talent, Papelbon decided to throw it all away and fight with his teammate. My team lost 5-4-1, and had I just gotten one more home run that week, I would have advanced. Instead, Papelbon killed the morale of the team, and nobody did shit on Sunday. Jonathan Papelbon was released from my team and has earned a lifetime ban from my fantasy rosters.

And you know what happened once Papelbon was released? Despite the wind being taken out of our sails, and only playing for third place, the team came together and decided to go out there and kick some ass. The offense hit, and the pitching pitched out of their minds with a 1.46 ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP, while striking out 91 guys on the week. Hell, Scherzer was so happy to be rid of Papelbon on the team, he had one of the greatest pitching performances ever.

As great as all of that was, nothing embodies my team's spirit that they carried throughout the year better than these two teammates palling around.

Jose Fernandez may have thrown a meatball to Longoria, but he can laugh about it, and both can go on to team up to play for the greater good of Team Pedigree. May they serve as an inspiration for my fantasy football and basketball teams.

Friday, April 3, 2015

A Review of My 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft - Part 2

Last week, we had our annual fantasy baseball draft, and it sure was a doozy. I am going to break it down round-by-round in three separate parts (this is part two), but before we get started, I have given each team a nickname based on the jobber that they most represent. Here are my explanations.

Norman Smiley – Because my dance moves are sick.
Vinnie Vegas - This guy is a gambler, and I respect that.
3 Count - This guy looked like a boy band member in high school, so this is fitting.
Eugene - Idiot who tries to take other people's gimmicks, but he can't pull it off.
LA Gore - If you told me LA Gore was his real Dad, it would explain so much. He ruined his family line of being man enough to wear cutoff jean shorts.
Dr. Isaac Yankem, D.D.S. - I have no idea who this clown is, but somebody else referred to him as "a doctor, but not a real doctor." That describes dentists pretty well.
Bob Backlund - Crafty, sometimes unintelligible, but shockingly effective as he kicked ass in the 2014 season.
El Dandy - He's Mexican, and Bret Hart let us know that he should not be underestimated.
Zack Ryder - Had a moment of glory, but is now firmly stuck in jobber territory.
GI Bro - He thinks he's like Booker T, but he's just a cheap knockoff.
Viscera - Large and sexually charged. Has glasses that are referred to as "The Big Nasties."
Kerwin White - Shockingly good at golf.

You can check out the first part here, but now onto part two:


Round: 9 (Keepers: Jose Abreu)
(97) Kerwin White - Evan Gattis C
(98) Vinnie Vegas - David Wright 3B
(99) 3 Count - Elvis Andrus SS
(100) Eugene - Brett Gardner CF
(101) LA Gore - Lance Lynn SP
(102) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Ryan Zimmerman 3B
(103) Bob Backlund - David Robertson RP
(104) El Dandy - Dellin Betances RP
(105) Zack Ryder - Michael Wacha SP
(106) GI Bro - Doug Fister SP
(107) Viscera - Ben Zobrist 2B
(108) Norman Smiley - Jose Abreu 1B
Best Pick: David Wright
David Wright had a really terrible year last year, but he definitely has the potential to bounce back to get to his 2013 form. He has been a very good player for a long time, and I think he is probably going to at least produce around the 100th most value this year, but he has the potential to be about 30 spots higher than that.

Worst Pick: Lance Lynn
I feel like Lynn reached his ceiling last year, and that is what you have to be expecting to draft him this high. He is a big time regression candidate, and there were a lot more exciting options available at this point, including his teammate, Michael Wacha.

My Pick: Jose Abreu
Bravo to me picking Jose Abreu in the 11th round last year. Kind of a no-brainer to keep him.

Round: 10
(109) Norman Smiley - Jose Fernandez SP
(110) Viscera - Alex Wood SP
(111) GI Bro - Rusney Castillo CF
(112) Zack Ryder - Jimmy Rollins SS
(113) El Dandy - Mat Latos SP
(114) Bob Backlund - Charlie Blackmon RF
(115) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Mark Melancon RP
(116) LA Gore - Daniel Murphy 2B
(117) Eugene - Cody Allen RP
(118) 3 Count - Hyun-Jin Ryu SP
(119) Vinnie Vegas - Josh Harrison RF
(120) Kerwin White - Matt Adams 1B
Best Pick: Alex Wood
For some strange reason, Alex Wood got removed from the Braves rotation for part of the season despite being one of their best pitchers. He got back in the rotation and dominated some more. With him definitely having a spot in the rotation, I think he will provide excellent value for the 10th round.

Worst Pick: Jimmy Rollins
Again, there are a lot of middle infielders that I would rather have than Rollins, as I see no upside in the pick but plenty of room for downside.

My Pick: Jose Fernandez
I try my best to be diabolical when it comes to fantasy sports. If there is a loophole, I want to find a way to exploit it. If there is any edge I can find, I will find it, and I will not feel bad about it; in fact, it will raise my self-esteem. I had a feeling that GI Bro wanted a player, so I casually threw out a trade offer to Kerwin White, plainly explained how I wanted to use his pick to screw over Xavier, and sure enough, Dempsey was in on the plan. We swapped our 10th and 11th round picks, and I chose Jose Fernandez, who Woods was planning on drafting with his next selection. Oh, and I still like Jose Fernandez. Yeah, he's out for the first couple months, and yeah, pitchers struggle with command when they come back, but those are normal pitchers. Jose Fernandez is a freak, in the most positive way possible, and if anybody can come back and dominate, it is going to be him.

Round: 11 (Keepers: Nelson Cruz)
(121) Kerwin White - J.D. Martinez LF
(122) Vinnie Vegas - Neil Walker 2B
(123) 3 Count - Alex Rios RF
(124) Eugene - Salvador Perez C
(125) LA Gore - Nelson Cruz LF
(126) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Chase Utley 2B
(127) Bob Backlund - Lucas Duda 1B
(128) El Dandy - Yadier Molina C
(129) Zack Ryder - Pedro Alvarez 3B
(130) GI Bro - Melky Cabrera LF
(131) Viscera - Trevor Plouffe 3B
(132) Norman Smiley - Xander Bogaerts 3B
Best Pick: J.D. Martinez
Matinez seemed like a guy that may have just had a couple good months in Houston and his career had fizzled. Then he made some mechanical changes in Detroit and set the world on fire. If those changes are real, then this is great value. I doubt he's quite as good as last year, but he probably won't fall off as much as others may expect.

Worst Pick: Chase Utley
I hate doing this, because I LOVE Chase Utley. Even had him on my team last year. He had a really nice year for Chase Utley at this stage in his career, and that made him about the 120th most valuable player. That was when his body held up for the most part and he played about as well as can be expected. This pick lacks any upside, but because of age, provides significant downside.

My Pick: Xander Bogaerts
So my incredible plan to screw over GI Bro worked doubly well with the second half of that trade with Kerwin White. Full disclosure, GI Bro's real team name is Xandy Brogaerts, yet he did not get his man. He must feel like a pathetic loser, and he has implied to me as much. But I really like Bogaerts to live up to the promise he showed before last season. Going back to his original position will help him feel more comfortable and just having a year under his belt where he had to deal with struggles will lead him to success.

Round: 12 (Keepers: Aroldis Chapman, Christian Yelich)
(133) Kerwin White - Jayson Werth RF
(134) Viscera - Ian Kennedy SP
(135) GI Bro - Wil Myers RF
(136) Zack Ryder - Aroldis Chapman RP
(137) El Dandy - Adam LaRoche 1B
(138) Bob Backlund - Ben Revere CF
(139) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - A.J. Pollock CF
(140) LA Gore - Francisco Liriano SP
(141) Eugene - Howie Kendrick 2B
(142) 3 Count - Kenley Jansen RP
(143) Norman Smiley - Christian Yelich LF
(144) Norman Smiley - Trevor Rosenthal RP
Best Pick: Ben Revere
Is there really a difference between Revere and Chris Carter? I mean, yes, they are completely different players, but they are both excellent in one category, Revere in stolen bases, and Carter in home runs. Carter will get more RBI, Revere more runs. And yes, stolen bases are easier to come by, but the difference in batting average is probably enough to make up for that. Ben Revere isn't a very fun guy to have on your team, but he is an effective one.

Worst Pick: Kenley Jansen
I don't know how you take an injured closer over a healthy one, and there were plenty of healthy ones on the board. In fact, I picked one of them two spots later.

My Picks: Christian Yelich and Trevor Rosenthal
I managed to get an extra 11th round pick for a basketball trade, and then I turned that pick into Christian Yelich in the 12th, because Vinnie Vegas only wanted to keep Javier Baez, so he traded back up to the 11th, and I got Yelich at a steep discount. Nothing more to say there except I'm a genius.

I cannot express how undervalued closers are in this league. Rosenthal was just sitting there, and it came to the point where it was dumb not to draft him. Greg Holland had a historic fall last year, but to get Rosenthal at the end of 12 provides great value and gets my bullpen started in a nice way.

Round: 13 (Keepers: Johnny Cueto)
(145) Norman Smiley - Anibal Sanchez SP
(146) Vinnie Vegas - Andrew Cashner SP
(147) 3 Count - Homer Bailey SP
(148) Eugene - Yordano Ventura SP
(149) LA Gore - Johnny Cueto SP
(150) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Shin-Soo Choo LF
(151) Bob Backlund - Jose Quintana SP
(152) El Dandy - Fernando Rodney RP
(153) Zack Ryder - Michael Pineda SP
(154) GI Bro - Russell Martin C
(155) Viscera - Oswaldo Arcia RF
(156) Kerwin White - Joc Pederson LF
Best Pick: Shin-Soo Choo
There were some pitchers I liked in this round, but I think Choo will bounce back and get near his old established levels. This is the part of the draft where hitting starts to thin out while plenty of pitching is still available, so I Choo Choo Choose Choo as the best pick in this round.

Worst Pick: Russell Martin
I feel like Russell Martin is just as valuable of a catcher as the next 10-12 guys that went after him. Is he really going to provide more than Yasmani Grandal or Wilson Ramos? I really doubt it, and catching is tough, so they can fade fast, and Martin is no spring chicken.

My Pick: Anibal Sanchez
This was a tough decision, as there were a few guys who could provide similar value. Sanchez's health is definitely a concern, but he has shown the ability to make it through a season fully healthy, and I'm hoping he can repeat that. I strongly considered Yordano Ventura, and even now I can see the merits of either pick.

Round: 14
(157) Kerwin White - Jhonny Peralta SS
(158) Viscera - Justin Verlander SP
(159) GI Bro - Khris Davis LF
(160) Zack Ryder - Austin Jackson CF
(161) El Dandy - Zach Britton RP
(162) Bob Backlund - Jedd Gyorko 2B
(163) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Jered Weaver SP
(164) LA Gore - Collin McHugh SP
(165) Eugene - Alcides Escobar SS
(166) 3 Count - Martin Prado 3B
(167) Vinnie Vegas - Eric Hosmer 1B
(168) Norman Smiley - Danny Salazar SP
Best Pick: Jedd Gyorko
I love Jedd Gyorko. I loved him last year, and it was tough to see him go this year, but there were a few middle infielders still high on my board, so I passed him by. I think he bounces back and gets back to his 2013 levels, but it's probably for the best that we separate for a while, as it will make our reunion all that more wonderful.

Worst Pick: Justin Verlander
Stick a fork in him; he's done (as a top level pitcher). His ceiling means he could be about the 150th most valuable player, but that ain't nothing to hang your hat on.

My Pick: Danny Salazar
So, this is definitely the worst pick in the draft, as the Indians sent him down, and I dropped him to pick up Daniel Norris, but before that happened, I wrote this ballad:
Oh, Danny boy, my team, my team is drafting, from round to round, one day you'll be mine. I have no idea the melody of the song from there, but Salazar is a guy everybody loved last year, and I love him again this year, maybe even more. I think he lives up to his potential this season, as he really put things together at the end of last year.

Round: 15 (Keepers: Brian Dozier)
(169) Norman Smiley - Jean Segura SS
(170) Vinnie Vegas - Yan Gomes C
(171) 3 Count - Justin Morneau 1B
(172) Eugene - Jake Odorizzi SP
(173) LA Gore - Dallas Keuchel SP
(174) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Rick Porcello SP
(175) Bob Backlund - Erick Aybar SS
(176) El Dandy - Curtis Granderson RF
(177) Zack Ryder - Joe Mauer 1B
(178) GI Bro - Brian Dozier 2B
(179) Viscera - Glen Perkins RP
(180) Kerwin White - Rougned Odor 2B
Best Pick: Jake Odorizzi
I really like Odorizzi this year. He really put it together after a rough start last year, and there is no reason to expect him to regress. I could definitely see him going about 50 picks higher next year.

Worst Pick: Justin Morneau
Although I used to refer to him as Justin MorYES, those days are long since gone. He was good last year, but he is going to be in a platoon situation, and he'll be another year older which means more worries about regression and injuries.

My Pick: Jean Segura
I took Segura to finish out my middle infield. He was excellent in the first half of 2013 before fading towards the end. I think a lot of his fade had to do wit him being in the majors for the first time, so I don't see that as being an issue. As for 2014, it was a total disaster of a year, especially off the field. I think he gets back to slightly below where his 2013 numbers ended up, and I have no doubt that he'll be incredibly valuable in the steals department.

Round: 16
(181) Kerwin White - Yasmany Tomas RF
(182) Viscera - Asdrubal Cabrera SS
(183) GI Bro - Koji Uehara RP
(184) Zack Ryder - Steve Cishek RP
(185) El Dandy - Danny Santana SS
(186) Bob Backlund - Shelby Miller SP
(187) Dr. Isaac Yankem, DDS - Drew Storen RP
(188) LA Gore - Michael Cuddyer RF
(189) Eugene - Steve Pearce 1B
(190) 3 Count - Matt Cain SP
(191) Vinnie Vegas - Lorenzo Cain CF
(192) Norman Smiley - Drew Hutchison SP
Best Pick: Shelby Miller
I think Miller could take a huge step forward this year, so I was very disappointed that he was snagged before I could take him at the end of the round. The stuff has always been there, but his command has come and gone. I think he settled down last year, and I think his stuff could take him to another level.

Worst Pick: Yasmany Tomas
I think this is a total hype pick as all the other Cubans have been dominating, so why not this guy? He might turn into a good player, but I think it is going to take some seasoning in the minor leagues, and the bat isn't enough of a guarantee to hang on to him.

My Pick: Drew Hutchison

A solid Plan B. Hutchison is a guy that a lot of the fantasy gurus (who all know just as much as you and me) are touting for this season, which really angered me, because had they not, I probably could have gotten him four rounds later. Anyway, Hutchison has a lot of statistical markers that he could be much better this season than he was last year, and I got a Blue Jay pitcher after the unfortunate injury to Marcus Stroman.

And that wraps up Part 2. Part 3 should be up in a couple days.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Baseball's New Market Inefficiency

In every sport, each person wants his team to find an edge to help them gain an advantage over their competition. Basketball has used analytics, football has found ways to maximize talented square pegs as opposed to just trying to jam them in round holes, and baseball has a new market inefficiency every single year (usually it was the opposite of what was widely believed, as now using resources to build a bullpen is in as the Royals proved). The one thing that seems evident to me is the misuse of pitching prospects.

A saying that still gets used is TINSTAAPP, there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Obviously, this is an exaggeration, but there is a lot of evidence that lets people know how unwise it is to fall in love with pitching prospects. They blow out their elbows, they never develop a third pitch, their velocity declines mysteriously. There are a ton of things that can go wrong.

Still, pitchers are brought along at nearly the same pace as position players. They are vastly different entities, yet they are widely treated the same. Pitchers' velocities tend to peak early on, many peak before they ever make it to the major leagues, so their hardest pitches are wasted on amateurs and minor leaguers. That is why it is imperative for teams to bring up their pitchers more quickly in order to give themselves an advantage over other teams.

Now do minor league pitchers get better with the instruction they receive there? No doubt about it, but the best coaches are at the highest levels (whether that totally makes sense is a debate for another day), so pushing them quickly will lead to the best possible instruction to maximize their abilities.

You have guys like Mark Prior and Stephen Strasburg who are ready to go straight to the major leagues from the draft. After dominating college to that extent, there is no justification for keeping a guy in the minor leagues just because that's what you do, and these guys were ones who were brought up to the majors incredibly quickly, but even that was a waste. There was no better Strasburg than the one that the Nationals signed. He was as good as he would ever be, but they wasted starts in the minor leagues. Most college first rounders are probably ready to pitch in the major leagues immediately. Could they refine some things? Yes, but their stuff is going to be taking steps back as the years go on, and not everybody gets that much better with command and mental aspects of the game to make up for that. Neither guy had to wait long, but they shouldn't have had to wait at all.

Jose Fernandez is a great example of what I'm proposing. He was brought up after one full year in the minor leagues where he never pitched above High-A. People thought they were crazy for bringing him up so quickly, and all he did was dominate the league to the tune of a 2.19 ERA. There are other guys that are plenty ready to play in the major leagues, not to that extent, but an ERA in the mid 3's could really help out teams that are struggling through their fifth starters.

The whole point of waiting to bring up prospects is to get their best years performing for your team. With position players, delaying their major league debut makes sense as they go through a lot of growing pains and tend to get better as they get deeper into their 20s before declining. With pitchers, it's different. Their raw physical abilities are peaking in their early 20s, so promoting those guys so they are using that stuff against the best competition would give teams a huge advantage. Replacing a fifth starter with a top prospect could add 2-3 wins and be the difference between slipping into the playoffs and winning a World Series or hanging out at home and wondering what could have been. Will they get injured if pushed to the major leagues? Yes, probably, but just about every pitcher gets hurt these days, and the increased danger to arms is negligible compared to the benefits a team could gain from this strategy.

There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. It sounds ridiculous, but with an aggressive promotion plan for top level pitchers, TINSTAAPP could become a wonderful reality.